2016 sea ice area and extent data

[Neven]

This thread replaces the 2015 version.

Last comment:

Update for the week to January 2nd

The current 5 day mean is on 12,797,800km2 while the 1 day extent is at 12,811,000km2.

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -921,490km2, an increase from -775,320km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -206,470km2, an increase from -70,13km2 last week. We're currently 2nd lowest on record, up from 4th lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was +33.2k/day, compared to the long term average of +54.1k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +52.7k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +53.8k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +51.8k/day.



The increase so far this January is the smallest on record. To achieve the smallest monthly gain, an increase of less than 28.1k/day is required, while the largest monthly gain requires an increase of at least 61.6k/day and an average gain requires an increase of 45.0k/day.



The increase this December was the 18th largest on record, while the average extent was the 5th smallest on record.

Have at it.

[Juan C. García]

Becoming worst (or better, depending of the person that is writing). Too early for conclusions, but impressive. 1st. lowest on record.

[plg]

The recent above freezing temperature in the Arctic obviously had a disastrous effect...

We are in deep trouble ;-)

[crandles]

We are in deep trouble ;-)

Yes, imagine having to live through 2017 twice 

[DoomInTheUK]

We are in deep trouble ;-)

Yes, imagine having to live through 2017 twice 

Probably better to live through 2017 twice than 2017 once and then put up with 2018. 

[magnamentis]

The recent above freezing temperature in the Arctic obviously had a disastrous effect...
We are in deep trouble ;-)

Just a little side note. I think we should see these things neutrally and not make them troublesome or a gift.
some regions will suffer and others will benefit while transitions will always cause disruptions. that's how things are and have always been. further i believe that the term "manmade" even though it's correct IMO, hence valid, does as well not mean good or bad, because we are a part of nature like any other factor involved. the right attempt would be to adapt and to take measures and deal with the consequences by reducing them and/or getting them under control, but not make things evil. i for my part enjoy the ever getting warmer winters and i'm living ocean side, hence not away from it all. this topic could fill many books hence it's not easy to make a good statement in a few lines but i neither like the denialists nore the doomsday approach, that's what i tried to express with this post

[epiphyte]

The recent above freezing temperature in the Arctic obviously had a disastrous effect...

We are in deep trouble ;-)

OMG. It seems that the earth turned upside down _and_ the Sun exploded - all in one day. Can't believe I missed that

[Juan C. García]

The recent above freezing temperature in the Arctic obviously had a disastrous effect...

We are in deep trouble ;-)

I'm feeling powerful! I'm sure that they read my new Forum signature and they made the correction!

Let's wait a couple of days and IPCC will do the same 

[Juan C. García]

I´m done with my new 2016 Forum signature, so I post an image of it, just to keep it that way. Sorry for all that changes in the last couple of days.

Here is what I think: Extent and area are great to follow the Arctic sea ice on a daily basis, but it is a huge mistake if we use them to forecast Arctic sea ice. It is the difference on talking about Arctic Ice-free on 2025 or 2100. We should push to remove this practice in institutions like the IPCC and the NSIDC, because then they underestimate the real speed of ASI change.

Have a good day and looking forward to participate on this forum on 2016!

[gideonlow]

The recent above freezing temperature in the Arctic obviously had a disastrous effect...
We are in deep trouble ;-)

Just a little side note. I think we should see these things neutrally and not make them troublesome or a gift.
some regions will suffer and others will benefit while transitions will always cause disruptions. that's how things are and have always been. further i believe that the term "manmade" even though it's correct IMO, hence valid, does as well not mean good or bad, because we are a part of nature like any other factor involved. the right attempt would be to adapt and to take measures and deal with the consequences by reducing them and/or getting them under control, but not make things evil. i for my part enjoy the ever getting warmer winters and i'm living ocean side, hence not away from it all. this topic could fill many books hence it's not easy to make a good statement in a few lines but i neither like the denialists nore the doomsday approach, that's what i tried to express with this post

Unfortunately, trying to maintain a warm-and-fuzzy "let's not take it so seriously" attitude will do absolutely nothing to reduce the very real and catastrophic effects, the worst of which will be felt not by ocean-side dwelling First-worlders, but by 100's of millions of developing world people.  The world will not end, but from a human civilization perspective (especially those with less means to adapt) "doomsday" isn't so far from the truth. 

The problem is that such complacency leads to reduced action to avert more of the worst consequences.  We are already so, so far behind where we need to be . . . A strong sense of urgency is vital if our species hopes to survive in the future with anything close to the lifestyles most of us commenters are accustomed to.

[plg]

The recent above freezing temperature in the Arctic obviously had a disastrous effect...
We are in deep trouble ;-)

Just a little side note. I think we should see these things neutrally and not make them troublesome or a gift.
some regions will suffer and others will benefit while transitions will always cause disruptions. that's how things are and have always been. further i believe that the term "manmade" even though it's correct IMO, hence valid, does as well not mean good or bad, because we are a part of nature like any other factor involved. the right attempt would be to adapt and to take measures and deal with the consequences by reducing them and/or getting them under control, but not make things evil. i for my part enjoy the ever getting warmer winters and i'm living ocean side, hence not away from it all. this topic could fill many books hence it's not easy to make a good statement in a few lines but i neither like the denialists nore the doomsday approach, that's what i tried to express with this post

Unfortunately, trying to maintain a warm-and-fuzzy "let's not take it so seriously" attitude will do absolutely nothing to reduce the very real and catastrophic effects, the worst of which will be felt not by ocean-side dwelling First-worlders, but by 100's of millions of developing world people.  The world will not end, but from a human civilization perspective (especially those with less means to adapt) "doomsday" isn't so far from the truth. 

The problem is that such complacency leads to reduced action to avert more of the worst consequences.  We are already so, so far behind where we need to be . . . A strong sense of urgency is vital if our species hopes to survive in the future with anything close to the lifestyles most of us commenters are accustomed to.

My attempt at humor at Cryosphere's data glitches have evolved into something more serious and probably off topic but will add one response.

I will just add that a year or so ago I saw some posts which may be relevant; summarizing from memory:

On the one hand it exciting to see unfolding drama in the Arctic, and even "hoping" for major melt, glaciers tumbling to the ocean and whatever else. This is probably the reason that catastrophe movies (earthquakes, volcanoes, asteroids, ...) have such an appeal, we are entertained by the catastrophe itself.

On the other hand I am horrified by the implications, from severe weather, ocean acidification, species extinction, habitat destruction to a real threat to our civilisation (with non-negligible risk of collapse) to perhaps even a threat to our survival if everything goes really badly.

I do not see these two attitudes as contradictions, this is what it means to be human, we can live with paradoxes.

However, there is on huge difference with the movies: when the show ends we leave the theatre for the real word, with AGW in general and the Arctic in particular, this is the real world. (You can only leave by being a deluded politician denying the real world...)

So, back to the entertainment of a collapsing Arctic...

[magnamentis]

Unfortunately, trying to maintain a warm-and-fuzzy "let's not take it so seriously" attitude will do absolutely nothing to reduce the very real and catastrophic effects, the worst of which will be felt not by ocean-side dwelling First-worlders, but by 100's of millions of developing world people.  The world will not end, but from a human civilization perspective (especially those with less means to adapt) "doomsday" isn't so far from the truth. 

The problem is that such complacency leads to reduced action to avert more of the worst consequences.  We are already so, so far behind where we need to be . . . A strong sense of urgency is vital if our species hopes to survive in the future with anything close to the lifestyles most of us commenters are accustomed to.

i have not the slightest issue with this statement or better, i agree that dedication is needed, while i consider the fact that using strong negative wording will often lead to heavy opposing counter reactions. hence i believe that we should choose our words carefully to avoid being caught in errors that stick to the denialist's mind. my point was really more about psychology and seeking wise strategies than about denying any of the facts we deal with here. if i may say so and to make that point clear, i believe that many things will develop much faster and for some (i.e. banglasesh) be much worse than expected, but again these are not reasons a CEO of a company that deals with consumer products will listen to, hence the approach that will convince more people is worth more than the blunt approach that is assuring only those who are already convinced.

[Juan C. García]

My attempt at humor at Cryosphere's data glitches have evolved into something more serious and probably off topic but will add one response.

I was on focus with the topic, at the same time that I was making a statement with my signature, that appears on every post: past, present and future. Of course, I had also fun with Cryosphere's data glitches, at the same time that I enphasized my signature statement. 

I will remove CT from my signature, because they are not forcasting with 2D data and I will move my ASI social movement to another topic or I will create a new one.

Have a good day!

[Juan C. García]

After a "warm Arctic" at the end of 2015 and beginning of 2016, we start 2016 being the first on record. This could be for a short time frame, but from my point of view, having El Niño on 2016, we could be keeping from time to time this first lead, until the beginning of the melting season.

[Jim Pettit]

(NOTE: I've updated the numbers to correct for an earlier error in the CT area data)

CT Area:

11,548,790 km2 (10 January [Day 0.0247])

Up 101,416 km2 (0.89%) from previous day.

Up 340,602 km2 (3.03%) over past seven days (daily average: 48,657 km2).

Up 411,153 km2 (3.69%) for January (daily average: 41,115 km2).

634,865 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

231,984 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

169,115 km2 below 2015 value for this date.

782,519 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

1st lowest January to-date average.

2nd lowest value for the date.

6 days this year (60% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.

4 days (40%) have recorded the second lowest.

0 days (0%) have recorded the third lowest.

10 days in total (100%) have been among the lowest three on record.

ADS-NIPR Extent:

Still awaiting an update; last available data are for 31 December.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to January 9th

The current 5 day mean is on 13,079,400km2 while the 1 day extent is at 13,192,000km2.

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,016,760km2, an increase from -921,490km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -287,600km2, an increase from -206,470km2 last week. We're currently lowest on record, up from 2nd lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was +40.2k/day, compared to the long term average of +53.8k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +51.8k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +38.9k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +25.4k/day.



The increase so far this January is the 2nd smallest on record. To achieve the smallest monthly gain, an increase of less than 27.1k/day is required, while the largest monthly gain requires an increase of at least 71.3k/day and an average gain requires an increase of 49.4k/day.

[Jim Pettit]

ADS-NIPR Extent:

12,878,297 km2 (12 January)

Up 26,459 km2 (0.21%) from previous day.

Up 546,940 km2  (4.44%) over past seven days (daily average: 78,134 km2).

Up 605,222 km2  (4.95%) for January (daily average: 50,435 km2).

479,279 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

71,257 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

80,763 km2 above 2015 value for this date.

438,179 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

1st lowest January to-date average.

4th lowest value for the date.

6 days this year (50% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.

0 days (0%) have recorded the second lowest.

0 days (0%) have recorded the third lowest.

6 days in total (50%) have been among the lowest three on record.

CT Area:

11,716,553 km2 (11 January [Day 0.0273])

Up 167,763 km2 (1.45%) from previous day.

Up 484,940 km2 (4.33%) over past seven days (daily average: 69,277 km2).

Up 578,916 km2 (5.2%) for January (daily average: 52,629 km2).

496,260 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

94,049 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

5,899 km2 above 2015 value for this date.

617,279 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

1st lowest January to-date average.

3rd lowest value for the date.

6 days this year (54.55% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.

4 days (36.36%) have recorded the second lowest.

1 days (9.09%) have recorded the third lowest.

11 days in total (100.%) have been among the lowest three on record.

[Shared Humanity]

BFTV and Jim.

I would like to just thank you for your informative posts here, straightforward data that allows me to easily track the Arctic. I visit this thread daily for the updates.

[Jim Pettit]

ADS-NIPR Extent:

12,909,668 km2 (15 January)

Up 10,029 km2 (0.08%) from previous day.

Up 317,411 km2  (2.52%) over past seven days (daily average: 45,344 km2).

Up 636,593 km2  (5.2%) for January (daily average: 42,440 km2).

583,450 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

159,860 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

145,110 km2 below 2015 value for this date.

298,588 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

1st lowest January to-date average.

1st lowest value for the date.

8 days this year (53.33% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.

1 day (6.67%) has recorded the second lowest.

1 day (6.67%) has recorded the third lowest.

10 days in total (66.67%) have been among the lowest three on record.

CT Area:

11,836,045 km2 (15 January [Day 0.0383])

Up 33,657 km2 (0.29%) from previous day.

Up 492,155 km2 (4.3%) over past seven days (daily average: 70,308 km2).

Up 698,408 km2 (6.27%) for January (daily average: 46,561 km2).

540,447 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

192,087 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

248,582 km2 below 2015 value for this date.

638,252 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

2nd lowest January to-date average.

3rd lowest value for the date.

6 days this year (40.0% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.

4 days (26.67%) have recorded the second lowest.

3 days (20.0%) have recorded the third lowest.

13 days in total (86.67%) have been among the lowest three on record.

BFTV and Jim.

I would like to just thank you for your informative posts here, straightforward data that allows me to easily track the Arctic. I visit this thread daily for the updates.

You are very welcome...

[jdallen]

BFTV and Jim.

I would like to just thank you for your informative posts here, straightforward data that allows me to easily track the Arctic. I visit this thread daily for the updates.

I'll echo that.

Let me add a few thoughts.

Considering forecast weather and El Nino, I don't thing we've got much reason to expect the daily increases (40-45K/day) to significantly increase.

Considering the forecast and El Nino, I also don't think we've got much reason to expect the minimum to be any later this year than it was last year.  Even if it is, I don't expect it will be significantly higher.

To that end, the implication I see is, that we will only see the equivalent of about a months worth (being generous) of expansion of the ice this year.  That further implies a further increase of this year's refreeze of only about 1.25 million KM2.

Extrapolate as appropriate.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to January 16th

The current 5 day mean is on 13,501,200km2 while the 1 day extent is at 13,549,000km2.

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -867,600km2, a decrease from -1,016,760km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -43,870km2, a decrease from -287,600km2 last week. We're currently 4th lowest on record, down from lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was +60.3k/day, compared to the long term average of +38.9k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +25.4k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +39.9k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +36.5k/day.



The increase so far this January is the 11th smallest on record. To achieve the smallest monthly gain, an increase of less than 11.7k/day is required, while the largest monthly gain requires an increase of at least 76.4k/day and an average gain requires an increase of 44.4k/day.

[Neven]

Considering forecast weather and El Nino, I don't thing we've got much reason to expect the daily increases (40-45K/day) to significantly increase.

Considering the forecast and El Nino, I also don't think we've got much reason to expect the minimum to be any later this year than it was last year.  Even if it is, I don't expect it will be significantly higher.

To that end, the implication I see is, that we will only see the equivalent of about a months worth (being generous) of expansion of the ice this year.  That further implies a further increase of this year's refreeze of only about 1.25 million KM2.

Extrapolate as appropriate.

Last year the max was record low and early mainly because of a lack of ice in Bering and Okhotsk. This year so far there's slightly more sea ice there than last year, but this is easily compensated by low sea ice in the Barentsz Sea.



If somehow there's rapid expansion on the Atlantic side of the Arctic, then the max won't be as low and early as last year, but that won't happen if this series of storms continues to push warm winds into the Arctic. Actually, I'm surprised to see how anomalously high temperatures still are, despite a very negative AO.

[Jim Pettit]

ADS-NIPR Extent:

13,086,547 km2 (22 January)

Up 31,611 km2 (.24%) from previous day.

Up 176,879 km2  (1.37%) over past seven days (daily average: 25,268 km2).

Up 813,472 km2  (6.65%) for January (daily average: 36,976 km2).

685,150 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

189,722 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

242,710 km2 below 2015 value for this date.

273,697 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

1st lowest January to-date average.

3rd lowest value for the date.

8 days this year (36.36% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.

3 days (13.64%) have recorded the second lowest.

6 days (27.27%) have recorded the third lowest.

17 days in total (77.27%) have been among the lowest three on record.

CT Area:

12,113,268 km2 (22 January [Day 0.0575])

Up 30,353 km2 (.25%) from previous day.

Up 277,223 km2 (2.33%) over past seven days (daily average: 39,603 km2).

Up 975,631 km2 (8.76%) for January (daily average: 44,347 km2).

618,584 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

130,043 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

340,957 km2 below 2015 value for this date.

103,833 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

2nd lowest January to-date average.

3rd lowest value for the date.

6 days this year (27.27% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.

8 days (36.36%) have recorded the second lowest.

6 days (27.27%) have recorded the third lowest.

20 days in total (90.91%) have been among the lowest three on record.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to January 23rd

The current 5 day mean is on 13,707,800km2 while the 1 day extent is at 13,695,000km2.

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -940,350km2, an increase from -867,600km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -92,730km2, an increase from -43,870km2 last week. We're currently 3rd lowest on record, up from 4th lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was +29.5k/day, compared to the long term average of +39.9k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +36.5k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +34.3k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +36.4k/day.



The increase so far this January is the 10th smallest on record. To achieve the smallest monthly gain, a loss of at least 0.5k/day is required, while the largest monthly gain requires an increase of at least 117.3k/day and an average gain requires an increase of 57.4k/day.

[Jim Pettit]

ADS-NIPR Extent:

13,284,828 km2 (30 January)

Up 38,684 km2 (0.29%) from previous day.

Up 178,704 km2  (1.36%) over past seven days (daily average: 25,529 km2).

Up 1,011,753 km2  (8.27%) for January (daily average: 33,725 km2).

778,258 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

217,528 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

218,745 km2 below 2015 value for this date.

168,001 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

1st lowest January to-date average.

2nd lowest value for the date.

10 days this year (33.33% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.

7 days (23.33%) have recorded the second lowest.

8 days (26.67%) have recorded the third lowest.

25 days in total (83.33%) have been among the lowest three on record.

CT Area:

12,212,527 km2 (30 January [Day 0.0795])

Up 33,503 km2 (0.28%) from previous day.

Up 57,597 km2 (0.47%) over past seven days (daily average: 8,228 km2).

Up 1,074,890 km2 (9.65%) for January (daily average: 35,830 km2).

767,945 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

250,069 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

481,558 km2 below 2015 value for this date.

204,186 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

2nd lowest January to-date average.

1st lowest value for the date.

9 days this year (30.0% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.

9 days (30.0%) have recorded the second lowest.

8 days (26.67%) have recorded the third lowest.

26 days in total (86.67%) have been among the lowest three on record.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to January 30th

The current 5 day mean is on 13,878,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 13,907,000km2.

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,009,980km2, an increase from -940,350km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -177,530km2, an increase from -92,730km2 last week. We're currently 2nd lowest on record, up from 3rd lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was +24.4k/day, compared to the long term average of +34.3k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +36.4k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +31.1k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +21.2k/day.



The increase so far this January is the 11th smallest on record. To achieve the smallest monthly gain, a loss of at least 202.1k/day is required, while the largest monthly gain requires an increase of at least 767.7k/day and an average gain requires an increase of 289.3k/day.

[Jim Pettit]

ADS-NIPR Extent:

13,308,481 km2 (01 February)

Down 8,974 km2 (-0.07%) from previous day.

Up 118,375 km2  (0.9%) over past seven days (daily average: 16,911 km2).

Down 8,974 km2  (-0.07%) for February (daily average: -8,974 km2).

803,339 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

236,613 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

262,887 km2 below 2015 value for this date.

147,022 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Lowest February to-date average.

Lowest value for the date.

12 days this year (37.5% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.

7 days (21.88%) have recorded the second lowest.

8 days (25.%) have recorded the third lowest.

27 days in total (84.38%) have been among the lowest three on record.

CT Area:

12,236,302 km2 (31 January [Day 0.0822])

Up 23,775 km2 (0.19%) from previous day.

Up 55,686 km2 (0.46%) over past seven days (daily average: 7,955 km2).

Up 1,098,665 km2 (9.86%) for January (daily average: 35,441 km2).

751,005 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

240,977 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

476,764 km2 below 2015 value for this date.

197,124 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

2nd lowest January average.

Lowest value for the date.

10 days this year (32.26% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.

9 days (29.03%) have recorded the second lowest.

8 days (25.81%) have recorded the third lowest.

27 days in total (87.1%) have been among the lowest three on record.

[Jim Pettit]

ADS-NIPR Extent:

13,461,104 km2 (05 February)

Up 43,599 km2 (0.32%) from previous day.

Up 214,960 km2  (1.62%) over past seven days (daily average: 30,709 km2).

Up 143,649 km2  (1.17%) for February (daily average: 28,730 km2).

738,264 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

167,189 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

235,189 km2 below 2015 value for this date.

78,671 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Lowest February to-date average.

Lowest value for the date.

16 days this year (44.44% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.

7 days (19.44%) have recorded the second lowest.

8 days (22.22%) have recorded the third lowest.

31 days in total (86.11%) have been among the lowest three on record.

CT Area:

12,328,935 km2 (04 February [Day 0.0931])

Up 5,419 km2 (.04%) from previous day.

Up 181,593 km2 (1.49%) over past seven days (daily average: 25,942 km2).

Up 92,632 km2 (0.83%) for February (daily average: 23,158 km2).

760,905 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

320,973 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

537,913 km2 below 2015 value for this date.

216,497 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Lowest February to-date average.

Lowest value for the date.

14 days this year (40.0% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.

9 days (25.71%) have recorded the second lowest.

8 days (22.86%) have recorded the third lowest.

31 days in total (88.57%) have been among the lowest three on record.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to Febraury 6th

The current 5 day mean is on 14,087,400km2 while the 1 day extent is at 14,196,000km2.

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,018,150km2, an increase from -1,009,980km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -116,330km2, a decrease from -177,530km2 last week. We're currently lowest on record, up from 2nd lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was +29.9k/day, compared to the long term average of +31.1k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +21.2k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +19.3k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +28.7k/day.



The increase so far this February is the 14th largest on record. To achieve the smallest monthly gain, a loss of at least 4.9k/day is required, while the largest monthly gain requires an increase of at least 29.9k/day and an average gain requires an increase of 16.1k/day.



The increase this January was the 8th smallest on record, while the average extent was the 2nd smallest on record.

[Jim Pettit]

ADS-NIPR Extent:

13,461,801 km2 (12 February)

Down 20,104 km2 (-.15%) from previous day.

Up 697 km2  (.01%) over past seven days (daily average: 100 km2).

Up 144,346 km2  (1.18%) for February (daily average: 12,029 km2).

919,460 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

343,242 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

427,512 km2 below 2015 value for this date.

452,363 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Lowest February to-date average.

1st lowest value for the date.

22 days this year (51.16% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.

8 days (18.6%) have recorded the second lowest.

8 days (18.6%) have recorded the third lowest.

38 days in total (88.37%) have been among the lowest three on record.

CT Area:

12,564,080 km2 (12 February [Day 0.1151])

Down 120,818 km2 (-0.95%) from previous day.

Up 257,522 km2 (2.09%) over past seven days (daily average: 36,789 km2).

Up 327,778 km2 (2.94%) for February (daily average: 27,315 km2).

793,522 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

208,102 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

325,344 km2 below 2015 value for this date.

67,719 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

Lowest February to-date average.

2nd lowest value for the date.

17 days this year (39.53% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.

10 days (23.26%) have recorded the second lowest.

8 days (18.6%) have recorded the third lowest.

35 days in total (81.4%) have been among the lowest three on record.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to February 13th

The current 5 day mean is on 14,175,600km2 while the 1 day extent is at 14,204,000km2.

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,065,640km2, an increase from -1,018,150km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -229,330km2, an increase from -116,330km2 last week. We're currently lowest on record, the same as last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was +12.6k/day, compared to the long term average of +19.3k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +28.7k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +18.9k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +26.0k/day.



The increase so far this February is the 17th smallest on record. To achieve the smallest monthly gain, a loss of at least 12.5k/day is required, while the largest monthly gain requires an increase of at least 37.4k/day and an average gain requires an increase of 17.6k/day.

[Juan C. García]

I am still waiting to see when the graph will go up, but as the days pass, I believe that we will have an end of freeze that will be the new lowest maximum record. 

[Jim Pettit]

ADS-NIPR Extent:

13,666,867 km2 (16 February)

Up 45,982 km2 (0.34%) from previous day.

Up 54,268 km2  (0.4%) over past seven days (daily average: 7,753 km2).

Up 349,412 km2  (2.86%) for February (daily average: 21,838 km2).

775,512 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

295,232 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

216,968 km2 below 2015 value for this date.

395,623 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Lowest February to-date average.

Lowest value for the date.

26 days this year (55.32% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.

8 days (17.02%) have recorded the second lowest.

8 days (17.02%) have recorded the third lowest.

42 days in total (89.36%) have been among the lowest three on record.

CT Area:

12,489,930 km2 (15 February [Day 0.1233])

Down 14,343 km2 (-0.11%) from previous day.

Down 61,378 km2 (-0.49%) over past seven days (daily average: -8,768 km2).

Up 253,628 km2 (2.28%) for February (daily average: 16,909 km2).

908,397 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

401,276 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

661,006 km2 below 2015 value for this date.

330,940 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Lowest February to-date average.

Lowest value for the date.

20 days this year (43.48% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.

10 days (21.74%) have recorded the second lowest.

8 days (17.39%) have recorded the third lowest.

38 days in total (82.61%) have been among the lowest three on record.

[Jim Pettit]

Just as a reminder: last year's CT area maxed out on February 17, though it was nearly 700k higher than the same day this year at 13,274,555 km2. One never knows what might happen, of course, but I don't foresee that much additional growth this year.

[Jim Hunt]

It seems appropriate to cross post this information in here. Today NSIDC global sea ice extent and CT global sea ice area both reached their lowest ever levels since satellite records began:

[Jim Pettit]

ADS-NIPR Extent:

13,577,466 km2 (19 February)

Up 30,412 km2 (.22%) from previous day.

Up 115,665 km2  (.86%) over past seven days (daily average: 16,524 km2).

Up 260,011 km2  (2.13%) for February (daily average: 13,685 km2).

920,099 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

380,170 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

212,387 km2 below 2015 value for this date.

556,069 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Lowest February to-date average.

Lowest value for the date.

29 days this year (58% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.

8 days (16%) have recorded the second lowest.

8 days (16%) have recorded the third lowest.

45 days in total (90%) have been among the lowest three on record.

CT Area:

12,535,747 km2 (19 February [Day 0.1343])

Down 39,848 km2 (-0.32%) from previous day.

Down 28,334 km2 (-0.23%) over past seven days (daily average: -4,048 km2).

Up 299,444 km2 (2.69%) for February (daily average: 15,760 km2).

1,003,220 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

489,855 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

475,693 km2 below 2015 value for this date.

450,659 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Lowest February to-date average.

Lowest value for the date.

24 days this year (48% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.

10 days (20%) have recorded the second lowest.

8 days (16%) have recorded the third lowest.

42 days in total (84%) have been among the lowest three on record.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to February 20th

The current 5 day mean is on 14,165,600km2 while the 1 day extent is at 14,179,000km2.

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,207,740km2, an increase from -1,065,640km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -421,270km2, an increase from -229,330km2 last week. We're currently lowest on record, the same as last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was -1.4k/day, compared to the long term average of +18.9k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +26.0k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +15.8k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +12.7k/day.



The increase so far this February is the 8th smallest on record. To achieve the smallest monthly gain, a loss of at least 20.9k/day is required, while the largest monthly gain requires an increase of at least 67.7k/day and an average gain requires an increase of 32.5k/day.

[Jim Pettit]

ADS-NIPR Extent:

13,593,241 km2 (22 February)

Up 6,256 km2 (0.05%) from previous day.

Down 27,644 km2  (-0.2%) over past seven days (daily average: -3,949 km2).

Up 275,786 km2  (2.25%) for February (daily average: 12,536 km2).

949,764 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

405,065 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

307,444 km2 below 2015 value for this date.

486,113 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Lowest February to-date average.

Lowest value for the date.

32 days this year (60.38% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.

8 days (15.09%) have recorded the second lowest.

8 days (15.09%) have recorded the third lowest.

48 days in total (90.57%) have been among the lowest three on record.

CT Area:

12,559,461 km2 (22 February [Day 0.1425])

Down 44,041 km2 (-0.35%) from previous day.

Up 69,530 km2 (0.56%) over past seven days (daily average: 9,933 km2).

Up 323,158 km2 (2.9%) for February (daily average: 14,689 km2).

959,421 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

501,180 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

467,064 km2 below 2015 value for this date.

451,026 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Lowest February to-date average.

Lowest value for the date.

27 days this year (50.94% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.

10 days (18.87%) have recorded the second lowest.

8 days (15.09%) have recorded the third lowest.

45 days in total (84.91%) have been among the lowest three on record.

[Pmt111500]

The useless piece of calculation today would be that extrapolating the CT SIA linearly to zero via two points, would mean that the 22nd of February, 2178 would be ice free in the Arctic (except Greenland). That is if I got that one correct on the phone calculator , deduction and memory. But almost a million lost in just c.12 years deserves some attention, esp. since it's pretty much mid-winter!

Aah, new ASIF User Classes!  Thank you Neven, I wasn't comfortable being a hero .

[Jim Pettit]

Yet another century drop for CT SIA. The numbers:

CT Area:

12,446,272 km2 (23 February [Day 0.1453])

Down 113,189 km2 (-0.9%) from previous day.

Down 79,106 km2 (-0.63%) over past seven days (daily average: -11,301 km2).

Up 209,970 km2 (1.89%) for February (daily average: 9,129 km2).

1,074,786 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

616,101 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

637,179 km2 below 2015 value for this date.

575,501 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

That's a 12-day decrease of 239k from the 2016 maximum-to-date of 12.685 million on February 11. The average SIA increase from today through the annual max over the past ten years has been 374k, so I wouldn't call the max just yet. (It's not even out of the question that ice could grow enough to crack the 13 million mark.) But after another couple of strong decreases over the next week or so, I just might. At any rate, area has no more than five weeks at best to push through the ceiling; after that, the downhill race gets underway in earnest...

[Tor Bejnar]

I note that about 3 years' data in the projection suggest a new record low NH Autumn sea ice minimum. (A few days ago only 2012 ice loss amounts projected a new record.) If the record low for the date continues for a month or so, it will begin to suggest a likely (not just possible) new Autumn minimum.  The details are "all" weather, but Jim Pettit's graph shows climate's hand in this process.  When (if) all the yellow (2010-15) lines cross the 'new minimum' threshold, then the foreboding will really start!

[Juan C. García]

Difficult to beleive that it is really happening...

[DavidR]

Yet another century drop for CT SIA.

Over the past 10  years the largest increase in CT area from this date is 687K in 2012. For the first time this year, the largest increase from  this date since 2006 is not large enough to prevent a new record low.  No other increase in those years will  take the area above 13M and 3 of the increases will not take us above the current high  for this year.

[Jim Pettit]

ADS-NIPR Extent:

13,867,055 km2 (26 February)

Down 10,139 km2 (-0.07%) from previous day.

Up 289,589 km2  (2.13%) over past seven days (daily average: 41,370 km2).

Up 549,600 km2  (4.49%) for February (daily average: 21,138 km2).

731,380 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

229,226 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

61,383 km2 below 2015 value for this date.

439,112 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Lowest February to-date average.

2nd lowest value for the date.

34 days this year (59.65% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.

10 days (17.54%) have recorded the second lowest.

8 days (14.04%) have recorded the third lowest.

52 days in total (91.23%) have been among the lowest three on record.

CT Area:

12,754,528 km2 (26 February [Day 0.1534])

Up 136,190 km2 (1.08%) from previous day.

Up 218,781 km2 (1.74%) over past seven days (daily average: 31,254 km2).

Up 518,226 km2 (4.65%) for February (daily average: 19,932 km2).

812,567 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

378,804 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

298,207 km2 below 2015 value for this date.

391,456 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Lowest February to-date average.

2nd lowest value for the date.

30 days this year (52.63% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.

11 days (19.3%) have recorded the second lowest.

8 days (14.04%) have recorded the third lowest.

49 days in total (85.96%) have been among the lowest three on record.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to February 27th

The current 5 day mean is on 14,336,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 14,428,000km2.

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,148,070km2, a decrease from -1,207,740km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -339,730km2, a decrease from -421,270km2 last week. We're currently lowest on record, the same as last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was +24.4k/day, compared to the long term average of +15.8k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +12.7k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +2.2k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +19.9k/day.



The increase so far this February is the 11th smallest on record. To achieve the smallest monthly gain, a loss of at least 179.1k/day is required, while the largest monthly gain requires an increase of at least 219.2k/day and an average gain requires an increase of 61.0k/day.

[Jim Pettit]

ADS-NIPR Extent:

13,789,796 km2 (04 March)

Down 34,661 km2 (-0.25%) from previous day.

Down 87,398 km2  (-0.63%) over past seven days (daily average: -12,485 km2).

Down 152,711 km2  (-1.25%) for March (daily average: -38,178 km2).

879,656 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

373,808 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

100,799 km2 above 2015 value for this date.

909,921 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

2nd lowest March to-date average.

2nd lowest value for the date.

34 days this year (53.97% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.

13 days (20.63%) have recorded the second lowest.

9 days (14.29%) have recorded the third lowest.

56 days in total (88.89%) have been among the lowest three on record.

CT Area:

12,765,717 km2 (02 March [Day 0.1644])

Up 25,252 km2 (0.2%) from previous day.

Up 319,445 km2 (2.56%) over past seven days (daily average: 45,635 km2).

Down 10,110 km2 (-0.09%) for March (daily average: -5,055 km2).

893,046 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

418,373 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

371,306 km2 below 2015 value for this date.

544,880 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

1st lowest March to-date average.

1st lowest value for the date.

32 days this year (51.61% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.

14 days (22.58%) have recorded the second lowest.

8 days (12.9%) have recorded the third lowest.

54 days in total (87.1%) have been among the lowest three on record.

[jdallen]

<snippage>

893,046 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

418,373 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

371,306 km2 below 2015 value for this date.

544,880 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

1st lowest March to-date average.

1st lowest value for the date.

<more snippage>

This, more than the low extent, really, really worries me.

[Tor Bejnar]

<snippage>

893,046 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

418,373 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

371,306 km2 below 2015 value for this date.

544,880 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

1st lowest March to-date average.

1st lowest value for the date.

<more snippage>

This, more than the low extent, really, really worries me.

As sea ice area (SIA) measurements are not affected by melt ponds until sometime in May, it is probable that more sunlight has hit open water (mostly glancing off, unless the water is choppy) in the far north in recent weeks than has happened in hundreds or thousands of years.  Although not a lot of solar energy is getting into the ocean at this time, I expect it is more than in recent years.  A physicist among us could probably give us some numbers to consider; we would then know how significant this year's situation is.

[Andreas T]

At this time of the year open water looses more heat than it receives. It is warmer than the ice surface and it evaporates which the ice surface does much less, so it looses more heat than an ice surface.
The important question though is what does the opening now mean for the state of the ice when solar inputs are much stronger in the summer. What does it say about the state of the ice and its movements?
Another side to the evaporation which can be seen as fog in satellite images is that it decreases heat loss from ice under fog relative to ice under clear sky. It also inceases heat loss from the top of the fog layer relative to a clear atmosphere.

Not a straight answer, I am sorry, how these effects balance out I don't know.

[jdallen]

At this time of the year open water looses more heat than it receives. It is warmer than the ice surface and it evaporates which the ice surface does much less, so it looses more heat than an ice surface.
The important question though is what does the opening now mean for the state of the ice when solar inputs are much stronger in the summer. What does it say about the state of the ice and its movements?
Another side to the evaporation which can be seen as fog in satellite images is that it decreases heat loss from ice under fog relative to ice under clear sky. It also inceases heat loss from the top of the fog layer relative to a clear atmosphere.

Not a straight answer, I am sorry, how these effects balance out I don't know.

The key element in my mind is not the current heat loss out of open water, which will be higher.

It's the water which will most likely *remain* open as we start seeing the rapid ramp up of insolation.  Those open areas will have a quarter of the albedo of snow covered ice, and 370,000 KM2 of lower albedo will recapture energy lost very quickly.

In two weeks, areas at 80N will start getting 2 kilowatt hours per square meter a day of insolation.  That should be about the time energy input balances out the daily radiative loss.  By the time we get to April 1st, that available energy doubles.  By the time we get to May 1st, we're at 14KWH/Day/M2 of incident radiation hitting the sea surface.  It only gets worse.

That's a massive change in the Arctic's spring energy budget, when we haven't even started to think about melt ponds. A lot of that extra open water is on or near the Atlantic side of the basin, deep in the arctic, so that energy will be getting embedded in the middle of a key part of the basin needed for preserving the pack.

It is very worrisome.

[edit:  one of the key factors I'm contemplating here is the distribution of the ice.  It is far different from 2015 and 2012, both of which had much more ice, but more to the point, that ice was not as asymmetrically distributed.  In 2016, right now, there is far more open water, at higher latitude, than we've seen in the modern record.  Due to the character of how incident insolation is greater at high latitudes than at lower after the equinox translates to that open water at high latitude picking up far more energy.  I conclude open water at 80N and above is far more dangerous than it is in the Bering, Beaufort, or other peripheral seas at lower latitude.]