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JimD

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Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
« Reply #100 on: July 23, 2016, 05:15:17 PM »
......
What an opinion-driven bullshit can be found again on this nakedcapitalism blog?!?

.....

To conclude: I think I will start to ignore blog posts from nakedcaptialism from now on, since those crazy arguments and distorted propaganda drive my blood pressure and could make me write for hours, risking to do something similar to the reader of my words. I am sorry - this polarization is so wrong and keeps me&you from doing the real things.

First the opinion did NOT come from the blog as what I linked clearly has this at the beginning

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By Jayati Ghosh, Professor of Economics and Chairperson at the Centre for Economic Studies and Planning, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. Originally published in Frontline

In further defense of the NakedCapitalism blog it is one of the most prestigious blogs in the world and if one only read a single blog it would be my first choice as the depth of its work (talking here about the posts actually written by the 2 bloggers) is superb.  And the breadth of its links is also almost unparralled.  But do what you want of course.

To your statement that the opinion that the EU is not a democracy is 'bullshit" I would just respond that you seem to be so close to the trees you cannot see the forest.  It is basically indefensible to hold the opinion that the EU, being an unelected body which enforces its will upon the citizens of supposedly sovereign countries, is a democratic institution.  You are entitled to hold whatever opinion you choose to, but then again so are all the folks like LePen and Trump and the millions who have come to the conclusion that this undemocratic structure is not in their interests.  Check out my post today in the empire thread about the US and you see the same problems being generated here by our disintegrating 'democracy'.   I am sure that most Germans think the EU is working great (though that number shrinks every day) as they are the dominant power in it and get most of the economic benefits.  But ask a Greek how much of a democracy the EU actually is.

The winners in any economic/political structure tend to hold strong opinions that it must be right and good...after all they are doing just fine.  But these systems are not working for the bulk of the population in either the EU or the US and the problems generated are coming home to roost.  And they are going to get worse going forward as well.

The point of these topics I created is to demonstrate how the stresses which lead to collapse progress and are progressing.  These giant complex globalized structures do not have an endless lifespan.  They grow with the creation of cheap energy and rising wealth and they stagnate and eventually die when the cheap energy goes away and the decline in resources sets in.  This is the way of all empires. 

Fighting with all ones strength to maintain complexities which cannot stand only serves to waste huge amounts of ones personal resources in a cause which is futile. 

A large segment of our populations is reaching the point where they will not stand for the status quo. Their world is crumbling right in front of their eyes and they are being backed into a corner.  When they decide which way they are going to break it will be best not to be in the way.

If we want to have a future beyond the collapse being driven by climate change, over population and political conflict we have to break with the standard human response of trying to maintain the various forms of BAU.  It is not that I expect this to happen as I think I have a pretty sound understanding of how humans react to long term threats and make their decisions subconsciously.  But it is in my nature not to give up hope that there might be a shred of common sense and rational behavior still out there that I might reach and that would make a slightly better difference.

Regards
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

SATire

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Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
« Reply #101 on: July 24, 2016, 12:22:41 AM »
JimD - I guess you did not understand what I tried to explain. Maybe I am bad in explaining what I think the problems in Europe are. And I used the articles you refered to as basis to show the misleading ideas which I think are part of the problems not only here but also elsewhere.

I want to give some background so you may understand some of my earlier comments better -  just in case you would like to know.

The European Union is not a democratic set-up and can not be democratic legitimated. Junckers is right in that point cited in above link. The attempt to give the EU a democratic legitimation was defaeted in the referendum in France and the Netherlands against the constitution. Therefore, the European Union is "only" a set of treaties between countries and can not be democratic legitimated anymore. But the countries are legitimated democraticly. Since Lisboa treaty Germany has more weight than other countries in some matters because some decisions need a certain percentage of population. Since Germany has larger population the weight of the German government is sometimes more important than that of other governments. That is it with the power of Germany.

The German populations benefit from European Union is that people inside EU may move to other places EU and live there with equal right. This benefit is the same for all the population in EU. Also we have no control at any boarders between the Schengen countries - no real borders anymore - that is convenient. The common currency Euro is similarely convenient for the people. Furtehrmore, we profit from EU laws by better laws to protect the environment, the human rights and also consumer protection. Such standards are pretty high inside EU and that is a benefit for the people. Of course such standars are a big barrier for new countries - e.g. Turkey can not come in due to that, but they do not want anyway such kind of standards.

About the Greek issue adressed in you link we discussed in previous posts a lot. That referendum was ignored by the Greek government only. The post you linked above blamed missing democracy in EU wring, since it was a pure Greek decision to ignore that referendum. Most people e.g. in Germany are not happy about that ignorance and people know they will have to pay for that. Since in EU no country can be forced to leave it was only the decision of the countries government to stay or go. Just like now with Britain - exit negotioations will start after Britain governments triggers arcticle 50. Same thing for every country here, since all countries signed the same treaties (but not all countries signed all treaties, e.g. no Schengen nor Euro currency in Britain). Similarly most other "facts" in the linked post are just wrong due to misunderstandings. EU is not a united staates and probably will never be. E.g. the French can not give up their nation as easy as the Germans did give up their currency.

All this kind of discussions I feel distract us from the more important problems we face in Europe and also elsewhere:

Lack of democracy: In EU that can only be a lack of democracy in countries with governments. In Hungary we see some problems arising. In Turkey we today see the clash between Europe and Arabia just at the Bosphorus. In Russia and Belarus we see succesfull autocratic governments - Putin made Russia great again... The democracy here is indeed challenged by sucessfull autocratic governments in the neighborhood. That success of autocrats and the difficulties to explain/understand the set-up of European Union help the international left-right-wing reactionist here.

The social questions (as it is called here - better maybe: The issues related to unfairly distributed wealth from the common fruits of the work of the people) is pushing people from the far left wing to the far right wing quickly: The "International Solidarity" means of course that solidarity with the poorest people means solidarity with poor people abroad. Not only political refugees (which have a right for asylum here) but also "economical refugees". That is a competition for poor people inside the country, because suddenly they are middle class in comparison and fear to loose their privileges for good reasons. Since our left wing parties still are also preaching internation solidarity our working class is driven towards the right wing reactionists - just like the "white trash" in USA easily walks from Sanders to Trump. So what could be a basis for international answers to the social question? I would say international treaties like European Union but not restricted to a single continent...

Economical issues: I think one can ignore them at this point. Of cours big money profited from European Union a lot - at cost of the people also in Germany. That business will become more and more difficult in the close future since with Britain the neoliberalism starts leaving Europe. Next thing to do is to fire all those former Goldman-Sachs (and other Wall street banks like Deutsche) people from political positions... Banks not only in London will be hurt. So let us ignore economics here - it is not that real anymore today.

JimD

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Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
« Reply #102 on: July 24, 2016, 02:10:15 AM »
SATire

I have always liked our interchanges as they make me think and study as you are never shallow and thoughtless.  So yes I am always interested in what you have to say - with the understanding that we are not going to agree a lot of the time because we value the present and the future differently.

I understand your position fairly well I think.  There is nothing new to me in what you have written above.  Some of our differences are 'interpretation' of what constitutes what is fact.  As I am sure you are aware there are many who take the positions I do on these matters. 

Some of our differences are also what each of us thinks is the most important factors to put in the front of the que.  I am more concerned with the reality of how the system works than the legal structures which bind the EU.  As we see all the time the EU managers ignore their own rules and do what they want to do.  Many of the countries in the EU of course exhibit the same kinds of behavior.  This type of behavior by the ruling class is endemic globally and we here in the US are likely to end up in the Hall of Fame ourselves to give it a sports analogy.  Most of this undemocratic/autocratic behavior is in service to the 1%ers who stand to gain the most economically as we all know.  Considerations as to what is best for the native populations of the various countries is not even a secondary concern to them.  The tide however is turning and there will be great struggle between the citizens and the 1%ers over the next 10-20 years - after that it will not matter much as events will over take everyone.

Many things about the EU and the Euro which seem to have been at one time to the benefit of the people of Europe were mostly side effects to the main purposes of the union and the common currency.  Just like NATO was not really intended to 'just' control the Soviet Union as we both know.  If that had been its only significant purpose it would have long ago ceased to exist.  What the US uses NATO for today is not in the best interests of the people of Europe in many ways.

I think from our many conversations that you and I are not far off in what we think the primary problems are and their likely end result.  Where I think we really differ is where the current short term emphasis should be placed.  I think that you still want to pursue the approaches to dealing with global problems as we have done in the past.  I think to do so is a waste of effort and will leave us in a worse place than the minimum could be.  So I emphasize what I think is the best for those who will stand in our place a hundred years from now and will willingly sacrifice those of the present to get us there (I do not have any hope that this path will be taken at all..but I still have hope for the future as that is just part of being human I guess).

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So what could be a basis for international answers to the social question? I would say international treaties like European Union but not restricted to a single continent...

Economical issues: I think one can ignore them at this point. Of cours big money profited from European Union a lot - at cost of the people also in Germany. That business will become more and more difficult in the close future since with Britain the neoliberalism starts leaving Europe. Next thing to do is to fire all those former Goldman-Sachs (and other Wall street banks like Deutsche) people from political positions... Banks not only in London will be hurt. So let us ignore economics here - it is not that real anymore today.


I have deep disagreements with the two main points in that quote.  International answers to our primary problems (being climate change and exceeding the global carrying capacity) have been sorely lacking to date and have demonstrated conclusively the failure of pursuing bau international approaches to solving problems.  The pointless and useless Paris agreement being the latest prime example of such efforts.  There is not a country of significance which will hold to that agreement.  And the agreement is an agreement to destroy the world anyway.   Global approaches to solving our primary issues are not possible IMHO in a democratic structure as solving the problems requires almost everyone to give up most of what they have.  Perhaps I am misunderstanding your point about ignoring economic issues above as I think the opposite is the case.  Economic issues are the drivers of all of this mess and thus have to be the most critical places where significant social change is required.  But change on both of those fronts is unlikely to come from current approaches.  Radical change is what is needed and it will come one way or another.

As to what is best for the peoples of the countries of Europe I am pretty certain that those who live in those individual countries are going to decide what is best for themselves over the next 10 years ...and most of those decisions will not favor unions like the EU and they will not favor mass migration - which really does dramatically and permanently change the character of a country.  And in most cases what they decide will not work as there is no real solution to the problems we have other than degrowth.  Europe cannot stand to have mass migration from the Middle East and Africa.  Right now it might seem manageable but it will become unmanageable.  And over time the vast majority of people will not think that those who want to come there have any right to do so.   We here in North America cannot and will not allow it when it actually becomes a real issue here (our issues with immigration now are not actually significant and look at how controversial they are already). The early stages of collapse will most likely result in Europe becoming much more like it was 100 years ago in terms of sovereignty.  This is the path of collapse and, yes, this quite likely will lead to increasing conflict again.

I would have liked to work on this more but my regular life calls and I must go.

Regards






We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

SATire

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Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
« Reply #103 on: July 25, 2016, 01:47:42 PM »
JimD, also for me it is very valuable to discuss with you such things: To see the real things it is important to look at them from various different positions.

Why did I say "ignore economics"? Of course AGW and economics are closely related. But non of todays signs for possible collpase dynamics in Europe are AGW related - the weather is still fine here. I mean simple economic numbers like GDP should be ignored, since they are misleading and too BAU'ish. To stress my points a bit more: You know we discussed elsewhere the usual collapse dynamics and you know, how our last collapse evolved. So I am looking at the things from that perspective and see such things on the rise again. Not that I am not able to see different possibile future routes, but I think thoose others are just not very likely today (or next 10 years) as the following:

The last collapse here was initiated by a takeover of a aggressive populistic extreme left-right-wing party (national socialists = Nazi) and accompanied by lies blaming others for all the evil (the globalized rich 1%, the jews, the gypsis, "other kind" of people). So I see similar tendencies today as probable signs for a collapse here:

* Blaming "EU managers" like you (and many others theese days) do is just a lie. You may ignore the legal set-up of EU as you stated. But ignoring that all decisions in EU are made by the governments of the countries and the very same politicians after that blame "the EU" for that decision is just an evil lie. I feel such behaviour is a possible seed for collapse and thus I try to fight it by explaining the facts. There are no "EU managers" and there is no EU government other than the managers/governments of the countries. So blame them and only them.

* Blaming refugees or other people for the unfair results for poor people here is a lie. Blame the existing people here for doing unfair things or making unfair laws. Blame USA for destroing the peoples governments during the wars for terror in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and paving the way for the IS. We have the choice to let them die or let them in. If humanity has any value we should help and let them in.

* What is happening in Turkey today is very worring and reminds me (and my relatives living in Istanbul) to very similar things happening in Germany before initiating the last collapse: Division of powers is terminated, freedom of press is gone, judges are in jail, teachers are fired, academic people are not allowed to travel and normal people fear to talk about their opinion. This is a thread just at our door. Other aggressive reactionists are present in Russia and Belarus or on the rise in Hungary and as international left-right-wing parties all over in Europe. We have to fight such developments even more insistently than the British did the last time. And we should do that together without weakening each other by dividing the democratic countries.

PS: JimD, our main difference was about the idea, that an intentional collapse could be helpful (by AGW, nuclear war or a virus...). We should not discuss that point because we can not come together anyway and it hurts me just too much. If inhuman actions would be necessary to rescue humanity I would prefer exactly not to do that and to go extinct due to failure. A suicide/murder is a possible cure for any disease but... I do not want to discuss this point with you. But I really love to discuss everything else with you and learn a lot. I love learning to increase complexity as much as possible.

JimD

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Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
« Reply #104 on: July 26, 2016, 04:31:06 PM »
I admit it is a bit of a stretch to put this in this topic (as personally I don't consider Turkey as part of the EU), however, Turkey has been trying to join the EU and is a NATO member so here seems best. 

A very interesting read...not that anyone will agree with all of it.

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Thoughts on the Coup Attempt in Turkey

There is still a lot that is murky about it, the most murky being US involvement and foreknowledge, but I believe some conclusions can be drawn.

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1.  There was a real, home-grown coup being plotted against Erdoğan......

2.  This coup had been in preparation for some time and Turkish security got wind of it (“received information” is the phrase being used) in time to warn Erdoğan to get out just ahead of the assassins. The story that Russian intelligence had picked up the clues and forewarned him is very believable. .......

4.  Washington and the coup. .......

5.  Whatever the reality may be, Erdoğan and his people are blaming Washington. There have been enough direct and indirect statements to make that plain....

9.  I believe that Erdoğan and his people began a sort of cost-benefit analysis recently and, just before the coup, we saw the first moves with his overtures to Israel and Russia. First, the cost side of the ledger. Turkey is never going to be admitted into the EU (not that that is so attractive these days); following Washington’s lead in the Middle East has brought it disaster and defeat; rightly or wrongly, Ankara believes Washington has betrayed it. The Western orientation is mostly on the cost side of the ledger. On the benefit side, Ankara has learned how much Russia’s enmity can cost it (and, if its true that Moscow tipped Erdoğan off to the coup, what Russia’s friendship can give). Then there are the future benefits: tangible in the shape of becoming Russia’s gas spigot to southern Europe and the potentially enormous gains from China’s “One Belt, One Road” strategy. Therefore, a simple cost-benefit calculation shows that a Eurasian turn has many benefits for Turkey while the status quo has about paid out.

10.  A more brutal calculation would have Erdoğan & Co considering the correlation of forces. Who’s winning? Which is the side to bet on? In 2000 the USA was by far the most powerful country on Earth; most powerful in every measurable way. But it’s been at war ever since and it’s losing these wars; it has outsourced the manufacturing power that was the foundation of its power last century; its foreign activities are fumbling and incoherent. As to the other Western standard-bearer, no one could possibly pretend that the future of the EU is bright. The power of the West is fading and what remains is incompetently managed. Since 2000, on the other hand – although the consumer of Western media absurdities would be unaware of it – under very capable management, Russia has grown in wealth and power. The same goes for China – steady economic and military growth combined with intelligent and wise leadership. If you were running Turkey, with which would you throw in your fate? Especially when your Western “allies” have so frequently spurned you? And may just have tried to kill you?....

12.  Turkey will leave NATO. What is not clear is the timing and the optics. I can easily imagine a gradual pulling back that doesn’t quite ever formally leave. But, if the Eurasian turn is indeed happening, then NATO is gone. ...

https://patrickarmstrong.ca/2016/07/25/thoughts-on-the-coup-attempt-in-turkey/
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

JimD

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Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
« Reply #105 on: July 29, 2016, 05:08:18 PM »
More Turkey stuff

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Amnesty International has gathered credible evidence that detainees in Turkey are being subjected to beatings and torture, including rape, in official and unofficial detention centres in the country.
The organization is calling for independent monitors to be given immediate access to detainees in all facilities in the wake of the coup attempt, which include police headquarters, sports centres and courthouses. More than 10,000 people have been detained since the failed coup.

Amnesty International has credible reports that Turkish police in Ankara and Istanbul are holding detainees in stress positions for up to 48 hours, denying them food, water and medical treatment, and verbally abusing and threatening them. In the worst cases some have been subjected to severe beatings and torture, including rape...

If Turkey is now becoming an Islamist dictatorship one can only imagine the problems coming down the pike. 

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2016/07/turkey-independent-monitors-must-be-allowed-to-access-detainees-amid-torture-allegations/
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

TerryM

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Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
« Reply #106 on: July 30, 2016, 08:43:57 AM »
It's difficult to believe that a Turkish autocrat could sink to depths of depravity not witnessed since the dark days of W's reign.



As I understand it, anyone in country with ties to the US of A is in deep do-do. 
How this apre-coup regroup will play out with regard to Syria, ISIS, and the various pipeline projects planned to transit Turkey is anyone's guess. The military will certainly be weakened, and possibly so involved with policing itself, that power projection beyond their own borders becomes negligible.


Will the crackdown be hard on the Kurds, or will those long standing problems be put on the back burner while the immediate threat to the State takes precedence? ISIS may be pushed back in Syria, and a retreat into Turkey could complicate matters, especially if Turkey now views them as problematic WRT making up with Russia.
 
Erdogan's meeting with Putin on the 9th of August, his first face to face with a world leader since the coup attempt, is indicative of Erdogan's wish to normalize relations with Russia. How far Putin is willing to go, how high a price he extracts for his support, and how much he is able to trust Erdogan could determine the look of the ME for decades to come.


A successful coup is now the only hope that America has to pull Turkey back into the fold, and Erdogan seems to be going to extreme lengths to prevent this possibility. It seems that TPTB made a serious miscalculation, possibly by again underestimating the capability of Putin's spooks.



When you strike at a king, you must kill him.
R W Emerson


Terry

SATire

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Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
« Reply #107 on: July 30, 2016, 02:32:27 PM »
TerryM,

I did not understand some of the abbreviations, slang or code words you used. But since I got the feeling that "a successful coupe" could be something good I must disagree:
All Turkish parties were united against the coupe, including the Kemalists and the Curds (see here: http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-security-idUKKCN1040K7 ). It was surely a great victory for democracy and for the people that the coupe failed.

However, what is happening now is not looking good. It is maybe similar to the reaction of USA after 9/11: A big thread and subsequently a "clean-up", people again are rating security over liberty. Similarly the alliance partners warn but are ignored again and thus it is likely, that the reaction will make things worse again. Not to be able to learn from history is not an US of A monopoly.

But if there will be any proove, that the USA was somehow involved in the coupe (is that really what you say? What does "TPTB" or "do-do" mean?), then that would be the end of NATO. If a treaty member is involved in a coupe in another democratic member then not only Turkey will leave that "treaty"...

Regarding Turkey and Russia: Not sure how it will end, but it looks like Russia-Assad are winning against Turkey-various-Islamists and Turkey-Islamists vs. Curds-Europeans also is not looking good. Maybe Erdogan just gives up and realizes, that autocrats are better partners for autocrats then complicated governments?

However, Europe is concerned. Istanbul is part of Europe and millions of Turkish people are living in Germany. Tomorrow there will be a demonstration in Cologne initiated by AKP: ~30 thousands people will demonstrate against the coupe. Right-wing lokal extremes, left wing autonomes and liberals will demonstrate against Erdogan at the same time - it will get "interesting". No simple answers are useful these days, we have to draw more complicated pictures and we have to try to understand before we start any wrong actions.

TerryM

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Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
« Reply #108 on: July 30, 2016, 07:57:47 PM »
SATire


I'm so sorry for writing unintelligibly:
W = GW Bush
do-do = ecrement, human waste, crap, feces, dung. "in deep do-do" = "in deep trouble"
TPTB = The Powers That Be - Those in charge.


I certainly am not in favor of a "successful coup", I'm no fan of Erdogan's, but, being old enough to remember the American coup of 1963 and the horrors that followed, I much prefer changes that come with at least the trappings of democracy.


My last post was based on the idea that America was behind the attempted coup, that Erdogan is aware of this, and that he now will do business with those he feels he can trust. I'm unsure of how NATO will be affected, will Turkey withdraw? Will NATO be reformed? Will NATO collapse? None of the above?


If, as you say "all Turkish parties were against the coup", does it not follow that some party outside of Turkey was responsible?


Those protesting Erdogan's excesses are wise to do so far from the Turkish borders. I fear for their health if they should ever return. Here in Canada, returning home every 6 mo. is required if one expects to retain various privileges.


I'm very appreciative of European feedback. My own thoughts are definitely a minority view in Canada. Our present and recently deposed governments are united in their abhorrence of Putin, and firm in their support for the new government of Ukraine. It was Canada that had Russia removed from the Group of Eight, all with the approval of the populace. I read RT, Sputnik, and The Saker and these sources have either corrupted my thoughts or widened my viewpoint.


I had lived 40 year in the States, and simply by immersing oneself in two different cultures, one can't help but notice the propaganda emanating from both. Rather than seeing either country as a beacon of light and a source of hope for the world, I've come to view each government as a source of disinformation, more intent on pleasing their masters than caring for their charges.


Two years ago America saw Russian and German financial success's as the greatest dangers to American hegemony in the coming decades. Today, with the demonization of Volkswagen and Putin, as well as sanctions that negatively affect both countries, these over-achievers have been dealt a blow. As long as war isn't seen as the solution I will acquiesce.


Terry

SATire

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Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
« Reply #109 on: July 30, 2016, 08:28:35 PM »
If, as you say "all Turkish parties were against the coup", does it not follow that some party outside of Turkey was responsible?
Here I was not clear: I meant the political parties in the Turkish parliament. The government party AKP and also the oposition Kemalists (CHP), and Curds (HDP)  acted against the coupe. Not sure about extreme right MHP....

From here it looked like part of the Turkish military tried that coupe. Maybe just because they did/tried that frequently in history.

JimD

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Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
« Reply #110 on: July 31, 2016, 12:53:24 AM »
A little speculation on my part.

If the US had been behind the coup (I do not think it was) there would have been a much higher involvement of more senior officers ...that is at least the standard Colonels which are required (as they command the requisite size of units needed) and most likely a set of Generals (as the US has deep connections with them).  So one could conclude that whomever started this coup did not have US backing.

That being said it is entirely possible that the US knew this was going to happen.  It appears that the Russians were aware of it and we have at least equal monitoring capabilities. 

The Russians 'may' have warned Erdogan to flee whereas we would not likely have done that as it would be in the US's interests to have Erdogan gone  -  he is after all an Islamist and clearly intent on creating a dictatorship.  Erdogan actually succeeding in creating a dictatorship however is not necessarily contrary to Russian interests and Russian national security.  So where does that leave us as the Russians have the ability to monitor but not to instigate a coup.

This situation played hugely into Erdogan's hands. He may have been democratically elected but he is clearly intent on creating a dictatorship.  For the US and the EU it would have been a much better outcome if the coup had succeeded.  Erdogan has made huge progress on fulfilling his goal of total control and it is very unlikely now that there will be any further meaningful democracy within Turkey.

So I would say the best guess is that Erdogan himself instigated this and that he was never in any danger.  This could have been accomplished by planting his own men into the right places and then triggering a 'coup' which would look really dangerous but have no chance of succeeding.  And thus would cement his iron fisted control of the country as it allowed him to purge the entire country of his remaining political opponents and further gut the formerly independent military leadership. the only winner here is Erdogan so that is the best place to look  -  not that it matters who started it all that really matters is the result.

Relations with the EU and the US will become much more difficult and problematic.  This plays well into Russian security interests.  The potential impact on other situations in the Middle East will be unpredictable I think.  With the exception that the Kurds are undoubtedly going to get pressed very hard.  If the Russians play their cards right (and Putin seldom does anything else) they will gain significantly from this situation.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein