Philosophical Derail: Finance models vs scientific models.
Andreas: I would agree with much that you say. What I call "financial modeling"....is an attempt to "put numbers to what I THINK is likely to happen in the future to a number of variables." It is based on some "laws"....but the outcome of reality in the future vs the model, is ALWAYS dependent on things we have no ABSOLUTE CONTROL OVER: (1) The decisions people will make day-to-day, and (2) the type of "execution" people will have on a day-by-day basis, (3) as well as decisions that customers might make that affect us.
And I think what you are saying....is that is NOT "modeling to you". I understand what you are trying to say.
In physics....the laws of physics hold. PERIOD (for the most part...unless a "law" is found not to be true). And you have no "difference of execution by humans" as you do in financial modeling. So yours is a mathematical exercise of sorts...and as long as ALL THE VARIABLES have been accounted for.....it can be "modeled" out into the future that will come close to the actual outcome.
I guess I would raise two points: (1) if you look at the "modeling" of the Arctic ice sheet 10-15 years ago.....I doubt you would find a single model that would reflect the melt that we have to date. Over the last 15 years.....as each year passes, the models keep brining in the date that the ice will first "be gone." And this is really the premise for me saying that it is my belief that "the climate models" have been TOO CONSERVATIVE. They have UNDERESTIMATED the melting of the Arctic ice sheet.
Which leads me to a second point: (2) If they have underestimated the melting of the Arctic ice sheet....won't that lead to them underestimating things such as (a) increased temperatures at an earlier date than modeled, (b) melting of the permafrost at an earlier date than modeled, (c) warming of the oceans at an earlier date than modeled, (d) the earlier melting of Greenland than initially modeled, etc.
The other problem with have with scientific models.....is we hand them over to politicians to make decisions with them...