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Author Topic: 1.5 (Feb) and 2 C (Mar. 3) limits have already been broken  (Read 2017 times)

wili

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1.5 (Feb) and 2 C (Mar. 3) limits have already been broken
« on: March 04, 2016, 04:21:35 PM »
I know that this should go in surface temperatures, but these are pretty stunning milestones to fall so soon after the COP21 agreement that aimed to keep the earth below these limits.

Yes, these are monthly and daily, not yearly records yet. And the daily 2C was for the Northern Hemisphere.

I still find these records terrifying and stunning.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2016/03/01/february_2016_s_shocking_global_warming_temperature_record.html?wpsrc=sh_all_mob_tw_bot

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Update, March 3, 2016: Since this post was originally published, the heat wave has continued. As of Thursday morning, it appears that average temperatures across the Northern Hemisphere have breached the 2 degrees Celsius above “normal” mark for the first time in recorded history, and likely the first time since human civilization began thousands of years ago. That mark has long been held (somewhat arbitrarily) as the point above which climate change may begin to become "dangerous" to humanity. It's now arrived—though very briefly—much more quickly than anticipated. This is a milestone moment for our species. Climate change deserves our greatest possible attention.

http://robertscribbler.com/2016/03/03/the-roof-is-on-fire-looks-like-february-of-2016-was-1-5-to-1-7-c-above-1880s-averages/

February of 2016 Was 1.5 to 1.7 C Above 1880s Averages

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Nick Stokes, a retired climate scientist and blogger over at Moyhu, published an analysis of the recently released preliminary data from NCAR and the indicator is just absolutely off the charts high. According to this analysis, February temperatures may have been as much as 1.44 C hotter than the 1951 to 1980 NASA baseline. Converting to departures from 1880s values, if these preliminary estimates prove correct, would put the GISS figure at an extreme 1.66 C hotter than 1880s levels for February. If GISS runs 0.1 C cooler than NCAR conversions, as it has over the past few months, then the 1880 to February 2016 temperature rise would be about 1.56 C. Both are insanely high jumps that hint 2016 could be quite a bit warmer than even 2015.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Theta

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Re: 1.5 (Feb) and 2 C (Mar. 3) limits have already been broken
« Reply #1 on: March 04, 2016, 06:26:25 PM »
Isn't 1.5 degrees the point where permafrost degrades suddenly.

This is quite frightening given that we can't tell where the temperature may go now and it makes me wonder if this pulse of heat will be the one that sets off the clathrate gun which would turn earth into a hothouse, eliminating all life.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 1.5 (Feb) and 2 C (Mar. 3) limits have already been broken
« Reply #2 on: March 04, 2016, 07:32:41 PM »
Isn't 1.5 degrees the point where permafrost degrades suddenly.

This is quite frightening given that we can't tell where the temperature may go now and it makes me wonder if this pulse of heat will be the one that sets off the clathrate gun which would turn earth into a hothouse, eliminating all life.

While do agree that such upward pulses of the GMST can activate some limited nonlinear positive feedback mechanism, a full fledged clathrate gun scenario would require a lot more anthropogenic forcing than is currently in the system.

The linked Nick Stokes article & attached plot shows how these monthly GMST values fluctuate with the seasons, and furthermore, the currently degrading El Nino should temporarily reduce the increase of the monthly GMST over the next several months

http://moyhu.blogspot.com/2016/03/surface-temp-up-0175-satellite-temp.html

Extract: "The Moyhu NCEP/NCAR index rose from 0.665°C in January to 0.84°C in February, continuing to set records. Similar rises are likely in the main surface indices. The base period for that index is 1994-2013, but reset to the 1951-80 period used by GISS, it would be 1.436°C (see the linked table, bottom left). Currently GISS has been running about 0.1°C cooler than NCEP/NCAR, on the same base. Here is the plot of the last year or so, daily:

A huge spike in recent days, again breaking records. The warmth was in Arctic, Canada/Alaska, East US, a large swathe of Central Asia, E Siberia, and still the ENSO Pacific region. Cool in Mid and W USA, and mixed in Antarctica."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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wili

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Re: 1.5 (Feb) and 2 C (Mar. 3) limits have already been broken
« Reply #3 on: March 04, 2016, 07:39:30 PM »
Theta: While I find many errors in the details of what Guy M says, his central point has always struck me as essentially right: that an economic slowdown (plus attempts to clean up their dirtiest coal plants) could reduce the aerosol umbrella from China's (and other) coal dirty coal plants that has shielded us from the full consequences of gw, and so bring on a rather sudden warming burst.

It may well be that we are seeing the beginning of just this kind of economic-slowdown-induced temperature spike playing out right now. It is really only the magnitude of the effect that is in question, it seems to me, and, as ASLR pointed out, the interaction with feedbacks.
« Last Edit: March 04, 2016, 08:10:14 PM by wili »
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."