The 2016 melting season

[JayW]

"Toasty" in Barrow yesterday.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR BARROW...

DURING THE EVENING OF JUNE 6TH SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS CAUSED
THE TEMPERTURE IN BARROW TO RISE TO A NEW RECORD OF 51 DEGREES
BREAKING THE OLD RECORD FOR THIS DATE OF 47 DEGREES SET IN 2009.

http://www.arh.noaa.gov/textforecasts.php?type=statement

[JimboOmega]

First... AndreasT thanks, that's just what I wanted to know! Now I can stop refreshing the ASMR2 every day hoping for something new.

"Toasty" in Barrow yesterday.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR BARROW...

DURING THE EVENING OF JUNE 6TH SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS CAUSED
THE TEMPERTURE IN BARROW TO RISE TO A NEW RECORD OF 51 DEGREES
BREAKING THE OLD RECORD FOR THIS DATE OF 47 DEGREES SET IN 2009.

http://www.arh.noaa.gov/textforecasts.php?type=statement

And the sea ice still doesn't care.  Heck, the ice in that pond(?) on the right side of the barrow webcam doesn't care.  Kind of surprised Barrow can set the record with the ice right there like that - but then southerly winds mean none of that came from over the ocean.

Not the first record for barrow this melting season either.

[Neven]

For this month's PIOMAS update I've been speculating a bit about volume distribution compared to other years, and what this may mean for 2016's odds of breaking records. I'm re-posting here as well:

Another interesting piece of information has been added to the PIOMAS website, a thickness anomaly map that shows where this year the ice is thicker/thinner compared to the 2000-2015 average:



This reminded me of the volume distribution comparison maps that Wipneus produces every month and shares on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum. Because this year is so close to 2011 and 2012, I decided to have a look at the differences with these two years (red means there is more ice now than there was then, blue the reverse):



As you can see, according to the PIOMAS model there is more ice this year mainly in the Central Arctic and in the East Siberian Sea, the difference being more pronounced in 2011. Sea ice volume is practically on a par with 2011 and 2012 as of the end of May. These are also the years that ended in the lowest September volume and extent numbers.

If we assume that volume in the Central Arctic doesn't matter for the September sea ice extent minimum (as it didn't melt in 2011 and 2012 when sea ice volume was lower there), this means that sea ice volume is lower outside of the Central Arctic, in the regions that do matter for the outcome of the melting season.

As eyeballing only gets you so far, I asked Chris Reynolds about this (be sure to check out his latest blog post on PIOMAS and other data) and he was so kind as to send me the PIOMAS volume numbers for the Central Arctic and the rest of the Arctic:



This year is on a par with 2011 both within and outside of the Central Arctic region, but looking again at Wipneus' thickness difference map, it's clear that the East Siberian Sea will play crucial role in the race between 2011 and 2016. This region is in the middle of a heatwave as we speak, and the ice surface is showing extensive melting, according to satellite images and other data (I'll have more on this next week).

As for 2012, this year there is 1000 km3 less sea ice volume in the regions outside of the Central Arctic. That's a lot of ice - almost 10% - that doesn't need to melt for this year to end on a par with 2012. Most of this difference is situated in the American-Pacific side of the Arctic, where the ice pack opened up at record speed this year and large stretches of open water are in the process of warming up, next to and within a large part of the ice pack that is looking increasingly patchy.

According to both PIOMAS and CryoSat the ice seems to be thicker in the currently warm East Siberian Sea than it was in 2012, but in contrast to 2011, there's also somewhat thicker ice on the Atlantic side of the Arctic. The Atlantic seems to be bringing warmer ocean currents to the Arctic this year, so it remains to be seen what will happen to that ice. All in all, 2016 looks to have a slight advantage over 2012, when it comes to potential melting in the regions outside of the Central Arctic.

This is all fine and well, speculating is fun, but June was when 2012 laid the basis for its record breaking melt, due to almost perfect weather conditions for melting. June has been more modest this year so far, but there's three more weeks left to go. We'll know next month whether this year will have been able to keep up with 2012's breakneck pace.

[Metamemesis]

Anyway, on Friday I was shocked when I saw what I was subsequently informed were melt ponds over the ESS in the ASMR2 imagery. That seems to have become mostly a static feature, at least according to ASMR2 over the course of the last few days.  Even though the heat has remained "on" in that area....  Bad, increased absorption of solar heat, etc. But it's not the least bit clear to me when/where that "bad" actually has an impact. Maybe it stays like that until July?

Every morning the first thing I do when I get on the computer is have a look at Worldview to see if any of that expanse of bluish ice in and around the ESS has started to collapse. I've been amazed at the color changes over such a wide area and the persistence of clear skies there. Surely the whole thing is about to dissolve! Not yet, though.

My conclusion is that the ice there is thicker than I imagined it. The HYCOM thickness graphs show this, but I think it's just difficult for me here in Kansas City to visualize 2+ meter ice.

20 days from start of surface melt to complete break up is what other recent years managed and they had several bouts of 20^oC temperatures in that period too.

From eyeballing the Worldview images for ESS for 4th - 7 June, it looks like the collapse has already begun. Numerous large cracks and gaps have appeared, and the forecast is for high(ish) pressure with shoreline daily highs of 20-25^oC interspersed with bouts of rain. In addition, fairly consistent winds are forecast to come from the land bringing warm air and likely to push the rapidly fragmenting ice further from the land and dispersing the resulting ice floes.

Given the large swathes of melt ponds across this ice and the overall pre-conditioning of the last week and coming week, I'd be surprised if most of the ESS up to 73^o North isn't mostly ice-free by the end of June (i.e. 2 weeks ahead of 2015).

[Adam Ash]

Hycom certainly gives an interesting picture of drift. 



An absolute torrent heading towards the Atlantic, while the Beaufort Gyre is being torn in two.

There are a lot of places where there is shearing between opposing currents, which must play havoc with the integrity of the ice mass.

[A-Team]

clear that the East Siberian Sea will play crucial role in the race between 2011 and 2016. This region is in the middle of a heatwave as we speak, and the ice surface is showing extensive melting

A couple of so-called Modis 'true color' scenes from June 7th with the blueish tint -- visible already to the eye in the originals -- exaggerated. The trick here is to gradually compress not the blue but rather the complementary color (yellow) which can be done say in ImageJ --> Adjust --> Color Balance. This can be done with stages saved to an animation (not done below) or just stopped while white areas remain white. It makes more sense in cloud-free areas but those are not always at hand.

[Metamemesis]

Hycom certainly gives an interesting picture of drift. 

This drift is forecast to continue towards Svalbard at least until the weekend, which will bring it into those warm waters, which will destroy the ice heading there soon after its arrivals.

I don't believe that these warm waters are a general artifact of rising sea tempteratures, but rather that it has a specific mechanism that will become more and more important in the coming years. I don't know if anyone has noticed, but since around the middle of October 2014, there has been a hotspot of anomolous warm water (up to 11^oC above the norm) in the Barents Sea which hasn't moved in over 20 months. The SSTA surrounding it fluctuates as usual, but this particular hotspot never moves, as you can see in the first image below (click to animate) which is taken from earth.nullschool.net SSTA and covers Jan 2015 to Feb 2016 (though it's still there, never budging and as strong as ever).

I scratched my head for a while, but it dawned on me that this may be a result of Greenland glacier melt. As many members (and lurkers) will know, the North Atlantic Current ("NAC") is fed by the Gulf Stream.  The path of the NAC is shown in the second image along with the hotspot, and it passes over a raised plateua within the Barents Sea (25-50m below sea level), which you can see from the sea elevation map in the third image. It appears that the NAC is pushed towards the surface in this area, and continually feeds the hotspot above it. Interestingly, this hotspot feature appears and grows in strength roughly 5 months after the infamous cool patch appears in the North Atlantic (see the 4th image from NOAA's SSTA), which I'm estimating is the time it takes for the NAC to cover the 2000km or so from the cool patch to the Barents (NB, the Gulf Stream moves at a speed of 1 to 6mph, whilst the NAC moves at a more sedate speed of 0.2mph, so my figures are guestimates).

My recollection of the latest resarch is that this cool patch has become something of a permanent feature and is caused by the cold fresh water melt from Greenland spreading across and sitting on top of the North Atlantic due to its lower salinity and hence lower density. This prevents the Gulf Stream from losing (exchanging) its heat into the atmosphere, which is not only slowing down and weakening the Gulf Stream itself, but also appears to store that heat within the NAC and depositing it further into the Arctic, hence the hotspot in the Barents Sea.

As you can see from the second image, part of the NAC splits off before reaching the Barents Sea and passes along the west coast of Svalbard before taking a right-hand turn and moving along Svalbard's north coast along to the north coast of Franz-Joseph Land ("FJL"), which is where we have again seen anamolously warm waters. Admittedly, SSTA maps aren't always particularly accurate or even cover this area properly, but we can infer the warmth of this water from the speed at which ice melts when it reaches these areas.

In the long term, if the cool patch in the North Atlantic does persist or expand, my guess (and it really is just that) is that more heat will be dumped into these Arctic regions, even if the Gulf Stream continues to slow. My guess is that going forward, there will be less of a focus on export through the Fram Straight, and more focus on drift towards these warm areas North of Svalbard and FJL. And given the expected drift over the coming days and the potential fracturing of large parts of the CAB, I believe that this melting season will have some surprises/shocks in store for us.

[Okono]

I scratched my head for a while, but it dawned on me that this may be a result of Greenland glacier melt.

I hypothesized a similar thing last winter, but on a global scale.  I believe "The Blob" and the deep cold in the North Pacific Gyre are related to a general slowing of thermohaline circulation due to Greenland melt and the disruption of the NAD.  It smells even more suspicious now, so to say the least, I think your observations accurate and your hypothesis plausible.

Someone's going to have to do the dirty work with SST's, sea surface height anomalies, upwelling indices and other things to make any stronger case, though.  Until someone demonstrates real correlation(and preferably causation) with real math, nobody's going to take either idea seriously.

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1448.0.html

[Tigertown]

for all of us that have been waiting JAXA finally showed a little better than 30k sq.km drop in SIE today

[jdallen]

<snippage>
Every morning the first thing I do when I get on the computer is have a look at Worldview to see if any of that expanse of bluish ice in and around the ESS has started to collapse.

< more snippage>

My conclusion is that the ice there is thicker than I imagined it. The HYCOM thickness graphs show this, but I think it's just difficult for me here in Kansas City to visualize 2+ meter ice.

It will be a while, and even 1.5-2.0M ice will take a while. Under fairly optimal conditions the heat will only take 4-5CM/day from the ice.  That means it could be 20-25 days before things get to the point the ice really starts to come apart.

[A-Team]

going forward, there will be less of a focus on export through the Fram Strait, and more focus on drift towards these warm areas North of Svalbard and FJL.

Very thoughtful post there, Metamemesis. It makes me wonder if there is a role for AI and automated pattern spotting -- have they all been found already, or are new ones developing in this region?

The Fram is fascinating and fans here feature it regularly but it hasn't fared fantastically in scientific papers in terms of trends or volume export significance -- even though it looks like it should.

In the April Svalbard forum, AndreasT and others established an ice obliteration zone to the north of Svalbard-FJL by floe tracking. Surprisingly that edge resurfaced quite accurately in the much maligned Hycom product, an example of which Neven just posted above.

This region has been too cloudy too often to follow but the yellow-depleted June 7th Modis image suggests the zone has persisted. Possibly it enlarges seasonally. (The image is rotated 90º with respect to Worldview.)

The southern hot spots were even featured on the Svalbard forum in a week-long animation in mid-April but without any theory for occurrence nor longer term analysis of persistence (which seem very striking and worth pursuing).

I am of the opinion that the northerly extending North Atlantic waters are a newly developing threat to the ice pack and possibly the most interesting phenomenon so far of this melt year.

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1504.msg73703.html#msg73703
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1504.msg74474.html#msg74474

[Lord M Vader]

Given the latest forecast runs, it seems that June 2016 have all possibilities to be one (or even THE) of the lousiest June months we have seen. So far for June 1-7 an astonishing lousy 0,14 Mn km² have been lost(!)

The lousiest June so far during 2003-2015 was 2004 which only saw a melt of about 1,25 Mn km². Interestingly, during the 1980's the average loss during June was about 1,25 Mn km².

The current forecasts also call for cyclonic weaher pattern to dominate in most of the Arctic basin for the next 10 days. In addition to that, most of the foreseen precipitation in the "real" Arctic will be in form of snow.

[Adam Ash]

A couple of consequentials from the circulation discussion.

1.  Would not a northward movement of Atlantic Water along the east coast of Greenland disrupt the down-welling zone which drives the OMC? 

2. As (if) the down-welling zones get moved north, are they likely to find different sea bed configurations which could re-direct the cold bottom water flow in a different direction?  Say (for example) away from the present-day's generally southward movement which drives the current OMC to a flow into the middle of the Arctic basin, with all the attendant confusion that could have on thermal transport et al? 

All this is Peter Wadham's patch isn't it...   Any comments, I wonder?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Given the latest forecast runs, it seems that June 2016 have all possibilities to be one (or even THE) of the lousiest June months we have seen. So far for June 1-7 an astonishing lousy 0,14 Mn km² have been lost(!)

The lousiest June so far during 2003-2015 was 2004 which only saw a melt of about 1,25 Mn km². Interestingly, during the 1980's the average loss during June was about 1,25 Mn km².

The current forecasts also call for cyclonic weaher pattern to dominate in most of the Arctic basin for the next 10 days. In addition to that, most of the foreseen precipitation in the "real" Arctic will be in form of snow.

Agree with this. All models now showing a large low pressure system dropping anchor over the central Arctic. Not deep enough to cause much disruption, but enough to bring cloud and cooler temps, right as we approach peak insolation. The model agreement is remarkable, even out to 8-10 days.



These are looking like just about the best conditions we could realistically expect for ice retention in the central pack.

[oren]

Very thoughtful post there, Metamemesis.

YES.

I am of the opinion that the northerly extending North Atlantic waters are a newly developing threat to the ice pack and possibly the most interesting phenomenon so far of this melt year.

YES.
Both Barents and Greenland Sea have been at record low extent for months.

[JayW]

I guess I have a different take on the models.  I see the persistent cyclone in the ESS/Chukchi region a creating plenty of wind, for a significant duration. 

Let's look at how "warm" June 2012 was.  First attachment is the 850 mb temps. 

Second attachment is the vector winds anomalies
Note the cyclonic action in the ESS/Chukchi region. And the increased "push" out the Fram.

Third attachment is the 144 Hr 850mb ECMWF ensemble mean anomaly forecast.   Funny, looks remarkably similar to the distribution in 2012.  Warmth over the Hudson, Baffin, CAA , and Kara. 
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=nhem&pkg=T850a&runtime=2016060800&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=752

Edit:  I also added singe model output from the experimental FIM model.  It's kind of a "cousin" to the GFS, but may one-day replace it.

4th attachment is the 168 hr snowfall forecast.
There are many variables there that might be of interest to some.  http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=fim_jet&domain=201&run_time=07+Jun+2016+-+12Z

[Metamemesis]

I am of the opinion that the northerly extending North Atlantic waters are a newly developing threat to the ice pack and possibly the most interesting phenomenon so far of this melt year.

I couldn't agree more. If the phenomenon is recurring, and the cause turns out to be the North Atlantic cool patch, then it is likely to strengthen in the coming years and excacerbating sea-ice loss (through both direct melt and the feedback of reduced albedo). I would also expect this area to remain ice-free late into the re-freeze season.

In support of the hypothesis is a similar anomoly in the North of Baffin Bay. Image 1 shows the average air temp at 2m for all of March 2016, which shows temps in the orange circle hovering around -20^oC. And yet when we look at the same area in Worldview in image 2, we see open water for the same area, even when in darkness. It appears this is caused by the Irminger Current (also fed by the Gulf Stream) which splits off into the West Greenland Current, as seen in image 3. Again, we see that the Irminger Current/West Greenland Current is forced up to the surface at the North end of Baffin Bay in two places, causing the anomolous open waters despite the -20^oC surface temps, as seen in the Bathymetric Chart in image 4.

There may be another explanation for these high SSTA which are anchored above North Baffin Bay and in the Barents Sea hotspot, but I can't think of one.

[Siffy]

Forgive me if I'm wrong here but isn't there a Hydrothermal vent somewhere in the waters around CAA?

or have I got my wires crossed?

[BornFromTheVoid]

I guess I have a different take on the models.  I see the persistent cyclone in the ESS/Chukchi region a creating plenty of wind, for a significant duration. 

Let's look at how "warm" June 2012 was.  First attachment is the 850 mb temps. 

Second attachment is the vector winds anomalies
Note the cyclonic action in the ESS/Chukchi region. And the increased "push" out the Fram.

Third attachment is the 144 Hr 850mb ECMWF ensemble mean anomaly forecast.   Funny, looks remarkably similar to the distribution in 2012.  Warmth over the Hudson, Baffin, CAA , and Kara. 
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=nhem&pkg=T850a&runtime=2016060800&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=752

Edit:  I also added singe model output from the experimental FIM model.  It's kind of a "cousin" to the GFS, but may one-day replace it.

4th attachment is the 168 hr snowfall forecast.
There are many variables there that might be of interest to some.  http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=fim_jet&domain=201&run_time=07+Jun+2016+-+12Z

Suppose we disagree then!

2012 had the added advantage of being both warmer than is forecast for the middle of June this year over the central Arctic, and having high pressure, allowing for enhanced surface melting.

If we look at the 8th to 18th of June in 2012, we see mostly positive 850hPa anomalies, with just a small region of average temps in the centre and around Beaufort.



Compare this with 2016 where we see a mix of below and above average temps trending toward mostly below average.

8th


10th


12th


14th


16th


18th


The current set up is nowhere near a classic dipole with a cross polar flow toward Fram, something 2012 was a lot closer.  There are occasional flows toward Fram from different spots over the next 10 days, but nothing consistent in my opinion.

The forecast low never gets below 980hPa and there is never a strong HP system nearby to drive a strong pressure gradient. You can go through the ECM wind forecast here http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=0&mode=4&map=1&type=0&archive=0
There really isn't much going straight to Fram at all.

[Richard Rathbone]

Neven,

CAB lost about 1/3 of its area in 2012. You aren't going to see anything close to 2012 unless there's a sizeable chunk taken out of the CAB. Its not irrelevent to whether extent drops to 2011 or 2012 levels, its critical to it.

[jdallen]

Remember that area of the Kara we were looking at a few days ago?

[Magma.]

In support of the hypothesis is a similar anomoly in the North of Baffin Bay. Image 1 shows the average air temp at 2m for all of March 2016, which shows temps in the orange circle hovering around -20^oC. And yet when we look at the same area in Worldview in image 2, we see open water for the same area, even when in darkness.

With all respect, A-Team, you've independently rediscovered the North Water Polynya. But explorer William Baffin beat you to the punch 500 years ago, the Inuit of the eastern Arctic before him, and the Dorset before them.

[6roucho]

In support of the hypothesis is a similar anomoly in the North of Baffin Bay. Image 1 shows the average air temp at 2m for all of March 2016, which shows temps in the orange circle hovering around -20^oC. And yet when we look at the same area in Worldview in image 2, we see open water for the same area, even when in darkness.

With all respect, A-Team, you've independently rediscovered the North Water Polynya. But explorer William Baffin beat you to the punch 500 years ago, the Inuit of the eastern Arctic before him, and the Dorset before them.

This is way off topic, but the Dorset were an astonishing and mysterious culture. The Dorset giants.

[jdallen]

<various snips>

Suppose we disagree then!

2012 had the added advantage of being both warmer than is forecast for the middle of June this year over the central Arctic, and having high pressure, allowing for enhanced surface melting.

If we look at the 8th to 18th of June in 2012, we see mostly positive 850hPa anomalies, with just a small region of average temps in the centre and around Beaufort.

Compare this with 2016 where we see a mix of below and above average temps trending toward mostly below average.

The current set up is nowhere near a classic dipole with a cross polar flow toward Fram, something 2012 was a lot closer.  There are occasional flows toward Fram from different spots over the next 10 days, but nothing consistent in my opinion.

The forecast low never gets below 980hPa and there is never a strong HP system nearby to drive a strong pressure gradient. You can go through the ECM wind forecast here

I think this will be a very different melt regime than 2012.  I suspect the low forming over the CAB will slow momentum somewhat, but I'm thinking it may be a bit of closing the barn door after the horse is gone; there's a lot of momentum and ponding already established.

They dipole or flow may not be to the Fram, but there's plenty of heat all along the Atlantic side from the Fram to Nova Zemlya.  It's been chewing up the margin of the pack quite thoroughly for weeks.  The ice is currently over-running that heat now. 

I can see dispersal but flipping back and forth through EOSDIS, I haven't been able to find a good area to track to illustrate. That said, you can follow the edge and see movement and significant dispersion taking place, some of which no doubt is thinner "interstitial" ice breaking up and melting out promptly as it is exposed to the near 0C surface water.

Outside of the basin, the weather is blistering.  The temperature anomalies around the periphery of the basin are pretty astonishing.  Sadly, the archive at NOAA doesn't appear to have anything for the same date in 2012.  I suspect however that conditions have changed, and we have far more latent heat in the water than we had then.

I think what this means is that some of the mechanisms attacking the ice we've had are going to be superseded by new ones - conditions along the Barents/Atlantic margin is one of them.  Beaufort breakup and general mobilization of the pack is another - I assume that's not something true of 2012.  Someone have a HYCOM Sea ice thickness animation for 2012?

[Edit:  Something to consider looking at the Anom chart.  Each quarter degree "C" increase of water temps above normal represents potential heat available for about an additional 1CM/day of melt.  It won't change things fast, but over the next 100 days *will* add up.]

[Metamemesis]

In support of the hypothesis is a similar anomoly in the North of Baffin Bay. Image 1 shows the average air temp at 2m for all of March 2016, which shows temps in the orange circle hovering around -20^oC. And yet when we look at the same area in Worldview in image 2, we see open water for the same area, even when in darkness.

With all respect, A-Team, you've independently rediscovered the North Water Polynya. But explorer William Baffin beat you to the punch 500 years ago, the Inuit of the eastern Arctic before him, and the Dorset before them.

I'm not sure A-Team would appreciate you ascribing my musings/ramblings to him or her; and I appreciate it's been there waaay longer than I've been considering arctic sea ice (only 4 years). The point wasn't to say "hey, look what I've found", but to explain its existence by reference to the Irminger Current/West Greenland Current, which in turn is used to support the hypothesis that the 20-month old Barents Sea 'hotspot' (see my previous post) is caused by an upwelling of the North Atlantic Current ("NAC") which has retained additional heat as a result of the North Atlantic 'cold patch'.  This has implications not only for this melt season, but potentially for all melt seasons going forward. If the hypothesis is correct, then we will effectively be watching the zones north of Svalbard/FJL rather than focusing on the AO and Fram Export. We'll see in the coming weeks what happens as the wind blows the ice into this 'kill' zone, and how important it is for the melt season as a whole.

Edit: I'm with jdallen on his analysis of the changing focus from Fram export to the Barents/Atlantic margin, particularly if that (relative to the ice) warm water is constantly being replenished and/or stirred up by storms/Ekman pumping. My money is on this being one of the major players in this year's melt season.

[A-Team]

A-Team you've independently rediscovered  North Water Polynya

Not my post, I'm quite familiar with the NWP from working with Nares. Metamemesis should be credited here. The first oceanographic study here dates to 1867. Be interesting to check M's ideas against received wisdom.

I looked at A. Schweiger's portion of the Piomas web site which has some interesting new items noted above by Neven.

http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/

The first image below compares the change in the Svalbard-FJL region from Feb 2012 to Feb 2016 as seen by Cryosat and Piomas. These come to quite different conclusions. If Cryosat is to be believed, the obliteration front is located well northward and more pronounced than that seen by Piomas. (Only February comparison is provided, no further explanation.)

The Beaufort Gyre area is quite similar in this comparison. Not shown below, but instead an updated look at early June floe motion which is more complicated than simple dispersional expansion. No larger view is feasible as the scene had to be cropped because of clouds.

[AmbiValent]

I thought Fram export was very important to reach new minima, simply because the ice and later the water is going south, and the heat used up in the melting wouldn't go to the Arctic - the heat going into the Arctic Ocean would still be available to melt additional ice in situ.

[Metamemesis]

Forgive me if I'm wrong here but isn't there a Hydrothermal vent somewhere in the waters around CAA?

or have I got my wires crossed?

Canada has some in the pacific, but looking at the most recent maps for the location of known/suspected hydrothermal vents, there aren't any in Baffin Bay. Screenshot is from Sep 2015 maps (for which you need Google Earth; see https://vents-data.interridge.org/maps).

Whatever the cause of these open waters / stationary high SSTA in Baffin/Barents, it isn't vents.

[Siffy]

Forgive me if I'm wrong here but isn't there a Hydrothermal vent somewhere in the waters around CAA?

or have I got my wires crossed?

there aren't any in Baffin Bay. Screenshot is from Sep 2015 maps (for which you need Google Earth; see
Whatever the cause of these open waters / stationary high SSTA in Baffin/Barents, it isn't vents.

  Whoops I feel like a bit of a puddinghead now. :<

Thanks for the information though.

[AbruptSLR]

This has implications not only for this melt season, but potentially for all melt seasons going forward. If the hypothesis is correct, then we will effectively be watching the zones north of Svalbard/FJL rather than focusing on the AO and Fram Export.

I suspect that this hypothesis is correct (however, don't forget the impact of cold spots in the Southern Ocean on the Thermohaline Circulation) in the near-term as indicated by the first attached image indicating that ocean currents are one of many ways to get heat into the Arctic.  However, in a few decades time (assuming that we follow a BAU pathway for the next one or two decades), the second image of a 2011 NOAA projection shows that between 2020 and 2030 the oceanic transport of heat should extend much further into the Arctic Basin.  Finally, the third attached image show another model projection (circa 2011) showing the change in Arctic SAT per decade, both with and without rapid Arctic Sea Ice Extent loss, showing the possible impacts of positive feedbacks (particularly on snow/ice loss from adjoining continents/islands.

[Magma.]

A-Team you've independently rediscovered  North Water Polynya

Not my post, I'm quite familiar with the NWP from working with Nares.

My apologies, and in fact I was more than a little puzzled by that apparent oversight. I clearly mixed up who was quoting who in the nested quotes.

[Andreas T]

...
 I don't know if anyone has noticed, but since around the middle of October 2014, there has been a hotspot of anomolous warm water (up to 11^oC above the norm) in the Barents Sea which hasn't moved in over 20 months. The SSTA surrounding it fluctuates as usual, but this particular hotspot never moves, as you can see in the first image below (click to animate) which is taken from earth.nullschool.net SSTA and covers Jan 2015 to Feb 2016 (though it's still there, never budging and as strong as ever).

I scratched my head for a while, but it dawned on me that this may be a result of Greenland glacier melt. As many members (and lurkers) will know, the North Atlantic Current ("NAC") is fed by the Gulf Stream.  The path of the NAC is shown in the second image along with the hotspot, and it passes over a raised plateua within the Barents Sea (25-50m below sea level), which you can see from the sea elevation map in the third image. It appears that the NAC is pushed towards the surface in this area, and continually feeds the hotspot above it. Interestingly, this hotspot feature appears and grows in strength roughly 5 months after the infamous cool patch appears in the North Atlantic (see the 4th image from NOAA's SSTA), which I'm estimating is the time it takes for the NAC to cover the 2000km or so from the cool patch to the Barents (NB, the Gulf Stream moves at a speed of 1 to 6mph, whilst the NAC moves at a more sedate speed of 0.2mph, so my figures are guestimates).
....

The problem is that this hotspot seems to exist only in the model on which nullschool is based.
I have looked for it in IR images on worldview and have not seen it. Neither is it in the sea temperatures presented in the Norwegian weather service map http://www.yr.no/kart/#lat=79.14523&lon=19.94401&zoom=5&laga=nedb%C3%B8rskyer&baseid=PunktNorgePolar%3A21%2F13381&proj=3575
 (I don't know whether this is based on observations)
Look in the area near "sentralbanken" when you click on the map it will give lat / lon to compare with the location you identified in nullschool.
It does look like some upwelling at the end of a trough in the seafloor but if there is no corroboration of it in observations I am inclined to think that the model has problems treating this feature accurately.

[jdallen]

Forgive me if I'm wrong here but isn't there a Hydrothermal vent somewhere in the waters around CAA?

or have I got my wires crossed?

Canada has some in the pacific, but looking at the most recent maps for the location of known/suspected hydrothermal vents, there aren't any in Baffin Bay. Screenshot is from Sep 2015 maps

Whatever the cause of these open waters / stationary high SSTA in Baffin/Barents, it isn't vents.

Let me quickly add, the heat input from thermal vents is scarcely above background heat flow from the mantle into the ocean.  It is many orders of magnitude to low a heat input to produce the spot heating we see, much less the much more generalized heat increases we are looking at.

[JimboOmega]

I think this will be a very different melt regime than 2012.  I suspect the low forming over the CAB will slow momentum somewhat, but I'm thinking it may be a bit of closing the barn door after the horse is gone; there's a lot of momentum and ponding already established.

(big snip)

On the one hand, I've heard a lot of people saying (as I've mentioned plenty) that things like ESS melt ponds, ice overrunning warmer Atlantic waters, etc, will lead to a rapid drop once the current spreading reaches its limit. "Laughs today, tears tomorrow" to quote Neven quoting Seaicesailor.

Other people seem to think weather will prevent any large "built up" drop from happening. I'm not really sure what to make of it. Take melt ponds; without sun the albedo change doesn't matter. But a lot of ice melted off and warm temperatures should still matter, and yesterday somebody posted something indicating it was starting to.

The only new piece of information I have to add to the discussion is that a big chunk of the "melt pond area" in the ESS on the Eastern side has turned from mostly green in ASMR2 false color, to a mix of yellows and purples. I assume this means it's draining.

[jdallen]

...
 I don't know if anyone has noticed, but since around the middle of October 2014, there has been a hotspot of anomolous warm water (up to 11^oC above the norm) in the Barents Sea which hasn't moved in over 20 months.<snippage>
....

The problem is that this hotspot seems to exist only in the model on which nullschool is based.
I have looked for it in IR images on worldview and have not seen it. Neither is it in the sea temperatures presented in the Norwegian weather service map

< more snippage>

I believe we are talking about the region ENE of Bjornoya?  Looking at the Norwegian map temps there do seem to be in line with what shows up on other maps as the hotspot.  I think one thing that might be throwing off people's perception is, over most of the modern era, that area tended to be ice covered in winter, and it really hasn't been since the 2000's that it's been consistently uncovered in winter, thus it standing out sharply on NOAA's SST anomaly maps.

It's of course not exactly hot... but you have temperatures there approaching 8C within 500KM of the ice front, and 3-4C within 200 or so, tending to intrude closer over time.  This, where historically temperatures have been quite a bit cooler.  Those are really dangerous levels of heat for the ice, and from a weather standpoint, have helped sustain strong storms as they've swept north past Europe.

So, while narrowing the "hot spot" to a specific narrow location doesn't work with the  www.yr.no map, that map does further highlight the intrusion of massive amounts of heat into the Barents.  The next question is, how much of that will be making it to the ice front?

[jdallen]

The only new piece of information I have to add to the discussion is that a big chunk of the "melt pond area" in the ESS on the Eastern side has turned from mostly green in ASMR2 false color, to a mix of yellows and purples. I assume this means it's draining.

Actually, it may be algae.

[Errorr]

I think one of the reasons that the Ice has been so persistent in the Barrow area is because it seems to be old multiyear ice and not thick first year ice according to the Canadian Ice Service. The link below shows the relevant ice chart and the second link is an instruction on how to read the egg codes which are confusing but delineate the percentage of old ice and first year ice.

http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/cgi-bin/getprod.pl?prodid=WIS56CT&wrap=1&lang=en
http://www.ec.gc.ca/glaces-ice/default.asp?lang=En&n=2CE448E2-1&offset=6&toc=show#Egg

[Metamemesis]

I believe we are talking about the region ENE of Bjornoya?  Looking at the Norwegian map temps there do seem to be in line with what shows up on other maps as the hotspot.

Yes, that's the area for the hotspot. It shows up on NOAA SST and SSTA maps (fig 1 & 2), on DMI SSTA maps (fig 3), and the Norwegian Met Institute shows temps as 5-6 degrees in that area. I'm no wizard with IR images on Worldview, however, so I'm happy to be corrected.

Edit: Nullschool uses the data from NOAA/NCEP (http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/), so it's no surprise that they're the same!

[Lord M Vader]

According to DMIs graph over the temps in Arctic 80^oN+ we can now declare the official start of melt onset in this high latitude area. From the graph it's clear that the onset is a few days earlier than normal.

However, this years melt onset is nowhere as early as it was during 1998, 2012, 1995 and 1989-1991. To my eyes it looks like 2016 is more or less on pair with 2015 wrt melt onset date.

//LMV

[Neven]

Holy crêpe, the DMI SST anomaly map is back! Or did I somehow miss it? Every time I pressed the 'previous day' button, the actual SST map (+ice temperature) would show up. And my contact person at DMI never got back to me either.

This is great news! 

[Lord M Vader]

NEVEN: great news indeed! However, it seems that the SST graph isn't updatedon a daily basis. I didn't get the latest pic from today but yesterdays SSTA analysis showed up nicely

Best, LMV

[werther]

I see. Nevertheless, copying and enhancing today's MODIS tiles, a lot of blue hues now indicate surface melt. Just a part of the four CAB-tiles remain white. But where clouds are missing, an awful tight pattern of leads and floes show up.
Weather doesn't look too conducive for melt and extent loss. But the process still seems to have enough momentum. And ECMWF + 120-+240h has lots of warmth over the Chukchi and E Sib Sea and the Hudson Bay.

[werther]

I'll try to come up with some comparisons for the Laptev Sea soon. Because +22dC on the shores today are causing havoc on the fast ice as well as over the pack ice. As we know, both types have come from winter remarkably thin and vulnerable for a couple of years. It looks like more of the same.
LBNL, Cape Morris Jessup on N Greenland had +5dC, confirming advancing surface melt circling the CAB.

[Neven]

Below is a comparison of SSTA maps for different dates across the years (retrieved them from ASI update archives).

June 15th 2012
June 8th 2013
June 14th 2014
June 4th 2015
June 7th 2016

So, given the dates, 2016 can be compared to 2013, is a bit ahead of 2015, but a week behind 2012 and 2014.

When it comes to differences in SST anomaly, it's clear that only this year is showing such a warm North Pacific. 2013 is running warmer in the Atlantic overall, whereas 2012 and 2015 are warmer close to the ice in the Barentsz and Kara Seas. 2012 also has a lot of warm water next to Baffin Bay. But remember, 2016 still has a week to go before we can make a one-on-one comparison.

Thanks for posting that image, Metamemesis! You made my day!

[Andreas T]

Check out Earth Nullschools SST-pic!! I just found a small area southeast of Svalbard with SSTs at 10-12^oC(!!!!!) Should just be bogus but what if it heads northto the ice pack..............

Any ideas about this?!

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp/orthographic=-232.90,84.17,1024/loc=30.301,75.767

In any cases, NEVEN, why not use Earth Nullschools SSTA-pics when you do your biweekly updates?

Best, LMV

This norwegian weather service sitehttp://www.yr.no/kart/#lat=75.31291&lon=35.21264&zoom=4&laga=nedb%C3%B8rskyer&baseid=PunktNorgePolar%3A23%2F159&proj=3575 lets you click on this map for air and water (vann I think) temperatures. I can't find temperatures higher than 5 deg C in that vicinity.
The warm patch in nullschool could be what is marked as Sentralbanken. The model may predict upwelling of deeper water there?

5^oC is plausible and consistent with what the IR brightness temperature shows: a larger area of warmer water from the coast of Norway up towards Victoria strait. The area south of Spitsbergen up to Bjornoya has a shallower seabed and colder water surface temperatures.
What nullschool shows is a spot of 10^oC at 75.8N 30E , warmer than anywhere in the vicinity. It is good to know that a feature like this does not escape attention. But it is worth keeping in mind that if it looks odd it is best to look for independent corroboration.

edit: I chose the 21 May since this is a rare view without cloud cover (showing in blue) over the area
edit added the DMI SST chart which is based on AVHRR as far as I know

[JimboOmega]

So I saw the latest HYCOM Sea Ice Movement "Nowcast" graph thing (whatever it's called) - wouldn't this open a bunch of Polynya across the central Siberian?

[werther]

I agree, Jimbo.
As I said, watch Laptev on MODIS.

[jdallen]

So I saw the latest HYCOM Sea Ice Movement "Nowcast" graph thing (whatever it's called) - wouldn't this open a bunch of Polynya across the central Siberian?

... and push a bunch of ice over warm water in the Chukchi.  Not good on either count.

[jdallen]

This, is about 400,000KM2 of really ugly ice condition.

[jdallen]

Remember what people have been saying about heat along the Atlantic margin?

Victoria strait,  6/7/2016.

(side note:  The Greenland Sea looks almost as bad as it did in 2013 when Fram export stalled.)