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charles_oil

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #300 on: April 13, 2016, 01:35:56 AM »
Oh dear.... NSIDC has suspended and removed April data

Quote
"Sensor on F-17 experiencing difficulties, sea ice time series temporarily suspended

April 12, 2016   
 
NSIDC has suspended daily sea ice extent updates until further notice, due to issues with the satellite data used to produce these images................. " see site for rest - looks like it will be off-line for a while.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/



jdallen

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #301 on: April 13, 2016, 01:47:39 AM »
 
Oh dear.... NSIDC has suspended and removed April data

Quote
"Sensor on F-17 experiencing difficulties, sea ice time series temporarily suspended

:'(
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #302 on: April 13, 2016, 06:33:35 AM »


The pattern is really bad and is going to get worse.

Even tho direct melt isn't going to take place thickening can be slowed and or stopped and flushing will get rid of thicker ice for thin ice that won't thicken up much at this point.

Solar insolation is ramping up big time and it won't be long before it starts warming the ice.

Or causing the top snow layer to get wetter or break down and lower albedo that will positive feedback with a constant ridge.

Once albedo drops the break through towards warming the ice and lower troposphere near the surface will be underway.

By May 1st solar insolation is strong enough to do this if the colder air is kept at bay over Siberia and NA.


I will assume at this point the pattern will breakdown before the melt season starts.




If not then unprecedented melting will commence in May.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #303 on: April 13, 2016, 09:01:12 AM »
JD - Fear not. Wipneus is with us. So is SHIZUKU. Unfortunately so is Prof. Judy:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/satellite-problems-with-arctic-sea-ice-measurement/#comment-214236

Friv - An glimpse of current Greenland albedo:



Plus an example of current Beaufort Sea albedo:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-2015-16-images/#Beaufort

Click through to Worldview and examine the adjacent snow cover also.
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Laurent

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #304 on: April 13, 2016, 09:32:09 AM »
Temperatures are set for melting, not much for the moment thought.
http://go.nasa.gov/1SyDbLF

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #305 on: April 13, 2016, 11:41:37 AM »
JD - Fear not. Wipneus is with us. So is SHIZUKU. Unfortunately so is Prof. Judy:

...

Plus an example of current Beaufort Sea albedo:

Click through to Worldview and examine the adjacent snow cover also.

Temperatures are set for melting, not much for the moment thought.
...

I wonder if you guys could you do something similar for Chukchi sea. In Worldview a growing opening of water can be seen but it is through clouds. I wonder what can be seen with IR layers, but I still can not make it work with my damn PC (chrome or explorer no matter!). I can only view the Terra/Aqua optical layers.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #306 on: April 13, 2016, 12:42:07 PM »
The euro is really trying to start the melt season with a bang.

April 23rd is to early to cause surface melt even with widespread clear skies.

But if this is a preview of May and June watch out.

That is very reminescent of the record warm July 2015





Someone tell me I am missing something here.  The color scale looks exactly the same.

What's the difference?  Why is last year feature much lower heights.





Looking back through the archives. 2005 had a great pattern for melt from mid May through early August.

What's really notable is the epic late July torching.

But inspire of this melt was slow to get underway in May where as years like 2008 and 2015 had less conducive solar patterns.

But 2015 had major land to ice warm intrusions.

Also 2005 had lower heights over the CAA region and GIS.

This proves to be a huge deal because it stopped NA side land warmth intrusions.

Also ice age probably played a huge  role.

Anyone have 2005 snow cover on ice data?
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Laurent

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #307 on: April 13, 2016, 01:03:01 PM »
This is Chukchi as requested :
http://go.nasa.gov/1V0SB1S

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #308 on: April 13, 2016, 02:41:37 PM »
Oh dear.... NSIDC has suspended and removed April data

Quote
"Sensor on F-17 experiencing difficulties, sea ice time series temporarily suspended

April 12, 2016   
 
NSIDC has suspended daily sea ice extent updates until further notice, due to issues with the satellite data used to produce these images................. " see site for rest - looks like it will be off-line for a while.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

I had wondered...  a rise of 600,000 km2 at this time seemed """unusual""" (we just couldn't be that fortunate) and it seemed like it must be a satellite problem

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #309 on: April 13, 2016, 03:20:27 PM »
This is Chukchi as requested :
http://go.nasa.gov/1V0SB1S
Big thanks! The link worked. I can even browse images (should I keep this chrome window open forever? lol)

Anyway I compared April 1 (first shot) with April 12, and, apart from the opening along the Beaufort coast, there is a big yellow-red area Northwest of Alaska. Each give its own interpretation.

What surprises me is that blue band north of Beaufort sea that is supposed to be old or thick ice. However neither Piomas or Cryosat or SMOS shows thick ice over there (the last two quite the contrary!).
Should that be thicker snow cover in that area?


Apparently not:
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,587.msg73765.html#msg73765

(the animation may need a click to start)
« Last Edit: April 13, 2016, 08:12:20 PM by seaicesailor »

magnamentis

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #310 on: April 13, 2016, 08:24:57 PM »
in all the mess throughout the many graphs i thought i'll post again one of the few that not only contains the
the correct, but the flawed lines as well, just to shed a bit more light on to the contradicting information around.

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #311 on: April 13, 2016, 09:22:03 PM »
The euro is really trying to start the melt season with a bang.

April 23rd is to early to cause surface melt even with widespread clear skies.

It's kind of crazy to see such a persistent high-pressure area. And indeed, if this would happen any time during summer, it'd be a massacre.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #312 on: April 13, 2016, 10:22:12 PM »
The euro is really trying to start the melt season with a bang.

April 23rd is to early to cause surface melt even with widespread clear skies.

It's kind of crazy to see such a persistent high-pressure area. And indeed, if this would happen any time during summer, it'd be a massacre.
You may have just written an epitaph.

[edit] Climate Reanalyzer has the weather showing no mercy - the high pressure actually intensifies and expands by the end of the week.  Looking at the snow cover forecast, that's also getting obliterated.  The snow line is forecast to retreat rapidly North all the way to Great Slave Lake by the end of the week.  The changes in Siberia and Alaska are similarly rapid.  There looks to be a lot of water about to be dumped into Arctic drainages.
« Last Edit: April 14, 2016, 12:34:06 AM by jdallen »
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jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #313 on: April 14, 2016, 01:49:26 AM »
If the JAXA AMSR2 SIE from Magnamentus is correct then we are approximately 17 days ahead of the 2015 ice melt season.

[Attached image 1 SIE with "you are here"]

EOSDIS near Svalbard edge breakup from 4/8 to 4/12

[Attached images 2 and 3]

Forecast of winds in the region facilitate more breakup through 4/18, image from models 4/15 (25kt surface winds shown)

[Attached image 4]

Friv knows the story about the model forecast for high pressure through 4/20 and it is not pretty
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jdallen

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #314 on: April 14, 2016, 02:15:22 AM »
If the JAXA AMSR2 SIE from Magnamentus is correct then we are approximately 17 days ahead of the 2015 ice melt season.

[Attached image 1 SIE with "you are here"]

EOSDIS near Svalbard edge breakup from 4/8 to 4/12

[Attached images 2 and 3]

Forecast of winds in the region facilitate more breakup through 4/18, image from models 4/15 (25kt surface winds shown)

[Attached image 4]

Friv knows the story about the model forecast for high pressure through 4/20 and it is not pretty
That same high pressure system - which appears to be strengthening and enlarging - will be shoving ice out of the CAB across warm water NW of Svalbard, and out of the Fram and Victoria straits.  As pointed out, most of that will be 2nd year ice.  Even this early in the season, I don't think it will survive long.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #315 on: April 14, 2016, 02:37:31 AM »
On the other side of the CAA, the ice in the Beaufort is surrendering to the force applied to it by high pressure in the CAB.  Cracking event, starting about the 10th.  About 100,000KM2 of ice breaking off the central pack and joining the Beaufort circulation, in 4 images.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #316 on: April 14, 2016, 10:27:13 AM »
On the other side of the CAA, the ice in the Beaufort is surrendering to the force applied to it by high pressure in the CAB.

You may be interested to discover that this news is spreading in Snow White's scientific circles:

https://twitter.com/icey_mark/status/720469805690658816
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #317 on: April 14, 2016, 11:05:24 AM »

 
NSIDC has suspended daily sea ice extent updates until further notice, due to issues with the satellite data used to produce these images................. " see site for rest - looks like it will be off-line for a while.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Incidentally, what is the time wait for a new satellite?  or for a re-orbiting of one which can provide at least some of CryoSat-2's data?

We have already lost the early April data and cannot get it back - it is not wise to be blind for too long in a climate crisis like this one

DavidR

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #318 on: April 14, 2016, 11:13:08 AM »

 
NSIDC has suspended daily sea ice extent updates until further notice, due to issues with the satellite data used to produce these images................. " see site for rest - looks like it will be off-line for a while.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Incidentally, what is the time wait for a new satellite?  or for a re-orbiting of one which can provide at least some of CryoSat-2's data?

We have already lost the early April data and cannot get it back - it is not wise to be blind for too long in a climate crisis like this one

My  understanding is that they are currently recalibrating against data from the DMSP F-18  satellite. Once the data has been calibrated they will provide an updated dataset including all the April data.  In the mean time we have Espen keeping  us informed with IJIS.  So we are not,  like some people totally in the dark.

Check the link in the original post.
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #319 on: April 14, 2016, 11:20:43 AM »

Incidentally, what is the time wait for a new satellite?  or for a re-orbiting of one which can provide at least some of CryoSat-2's data?


My  understanding is that they are currently recalibrating against data from the DMSP F-18  satellite. Once the data has been calibrated they will provide an updated dataset including all the April data.  In the mean time we have Espen keeping  us informed with IJIS.  So we are not,  like some people totally in the dark.


There no cure for some people's blindness.  Good to hear that there isn't going to be a hole in the data - thanks for your help.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #320 on: April 14, 2016, 12:02:53 PM »

 
NSIDC has suspended daily sea ice extent updates until further notice, due to issues with the satellite data used to produce these images................. " see site for rest - looks like it will be off-line for a while.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Incidentally, what is the time wait for a new satellite?  or for a re-orbiting of one which can provide at least some of CryoSat-2's data?

we're not blind at all, if you look at my post not above you'll have not only a clear impression of the situation but can assume that those graphs are based on data that recently gave me the clear impression that they are even more accurate than those widely used. i think that Uni-Hamburg data and Jaxa data together are providing a perfect image. below please find today's images:


We have already lost the early April data and cannot get it back - it is not wise to be blind for too long in a climate crisis like this one

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #321 on: April 14, 2016, 12:21:02 PM »
We are not,  like some people totally in the dark.

I'm attempting to arrange an interview with somebody from the NSIDC regarding both the F-17 issue and the current state of the Beaufort Sea ice. More news on that front as and when they wake up in Boulder.

Meanwhile would it surprise you to learn that several of the usual suspects have been surreally suggesting that "Global sea ice makes a strong comeback!". Willard Watts has been censoring comments from both Neven and I arguing the contrary case. I'm afraid "Snow White" wasn't inclined to take that load of old ballcocks lying down. Read all about it at:

Global Sea Ice “Comeback” Conspiracy

Quote
Both Prof. Curry and non Prof. Watts adorned their “Tweets” with a graph allegedly comparing “global temperature” with “tropical temperature”, but provided no graph of “polar temperature”. To remedy that (no doubt?) inadvertent oversight here is one we prepared earlier:
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Buddy

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #322 on: April 14, 2016, 01:11:55 PM »
Quote
Meanwhile would it surprise you to learn that several of the usual suspects have been surreally suggesting that "Global sea ice makes a strong comeback!".

I think they're all on the same email group from HQ (Koch Brothers:).  Another site.....which I have posted to has the same thing.  Of course.....they did the same thing in the other "recovery periods) as well in prior years.

I think they will be much more persistent this year.....especially in the US.....as this is an election year.  The fossil fuel companies and their paid bloggers are pushing (lying) hard...even when it makes no sense whatever.  Koch/Watts/others can only keep the sunshine of truth hidden for so long....  I encourage others to post FACTS and SCIENCE to their sites.....
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #323 on: April 14, 2016, 01:32:35 PM »
In the event that all the ice is gone in late August and early September (bar the bit north of Greenland) what will we have to talk about?

Will all your wonderful posts be just of sea?

Dont melt sea ice! Im addicted to you.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #324 on: April 14, 2016, 02:00:23 PM »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #325 on: April 14, 2016, 02:12:33 PM »
Quote
http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-regional-graphs/beaufort-sea-ice-graphs/#Area

Nice chart.  I did NOT realize Beaufort was off to such a bad start....  Not good.
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #326 on: April 14, 2016, 02:21:22 PM »
I encourage others to post FACTS and SCIENCE to their sites.....

I'm happy to oblige Buddy:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-regional-graphs/beaufort-sea-ice-graphs/#Area

From posts above, apparently we have a week more of this pushing Beaufort and Chukchi ice away from the continent.

Neven

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #327 on: April 14, 2016, 03:14:53 PM »
From posts above, apparently we have a week more of this pushing Beaufort and Chukchi ice away from the continent.

Yes, and with pressures in the 1035-1040 hPa range. That's what so insane about this whole event, it just keeps going. I'm going to try and do an update on the ASIB later today.
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magnamentis

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #328 on: April 14, 2016, 04:22:14 PM »
what do the pros here thing about the theory that the fact that sea-ice is in great parts not homogeneous (fractured) would help that the wind driven movement opens greater gaps (beaufort sea for example right now)

this would reduce albedo as a consequence.

one could assume that, considering the sea-ice area calculations, that due to that condition of the ice over large parts in the arctic once could call it "fake area" meaning that large arts are indeed ice covered but so thin that are will drop at high speed or as we already see stay low in the first place. i'm sure that one of you scientist, basic agreement provided, can put this into more substantial words :-) :D

EDIT: as it seems even satellites have had enough to see deniers abuse their hickups :-)
« Last Edit: April 14, 2016, 04:43:18 PM by magnamentis »

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #329 on: April 14, 2016, 05:33:49 PM »
Pauldry 600
"In the event that all the ice is gone in late August and early September (bar the bit north of Greenland) what will we have to talk about?

Will all your wonderful posts be just of sea?"

Hi Pauldry, I know yours was really just a facetious comment but you may want to look across to the Greenland melt thread

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1465.msg73701.html#new

What is bad for sea ice is worse for Greenland's ice and when that 7 metres of sea level quantity of ice  really starts to melt - when the sea ice has gone - the prospect of a combination of much stronger storms from warming and more/higher water troubles me greatly.

Thanks Magnamentis for plugging the graph gaps on extent and area. I am so hooked (perhaps mesmerized would be better) on looking at them that I feel incomplete without seeing where we are going...especially this year.

Benje

magnamentis

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #330 on: April 14, 2016, 06:01:07 PM »
you find the links a few pages back, else let me know so that i can send you a set of bookmarks that help me to stay current. i myself am very "visual" and like al those graphs, especially those of @jimpettit which he resumed to update more frequently. i even starded to make my own set just in case something or someone will stop doing things  8)

https://sites.google.com/site/pettitclimategraphs/system/errors/NodeNotFound?suri=wuid://defaultdomain/pettitclimategraphs/gx:83a853be9b936d5

Buddy

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #331 on: April 14, 2016, 06:42:16 PM »
The current year may indeed turn out to be "another 2012".........or I should say, just another in a long list of current AND future years like that.

As others have mentioned.....we are approaching an interesting time, as the Arctic ice sheet is losing more and more of its area.....and opening the dark blue waters of the Arctic Ocean to absorb more heat.  And THAT...will all Greenland to be pummeled with warmer weather and increase its melting.

2016 has already been jaw dropping from a scientific point of view.  I'm sure the next 6 months will bring more surprises on both the Arctic ice sheet AND on Greenland.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #332 on: April 14, 2016, 10:39:41 PM »
Here's what happens when the Beaufort Gyre goes into overdrive:



The current forecast suggests it's going to keep going like that for a while yet.

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #333 on: April 15, 2016, 11:34:46 AM »
Just looking at the cice drift maps leaves me kind of in awe. Can we expect this to continue for the foreseeable future?



looks like a crazy amount of ice getting thrown out of the fram strait.

The high over the Beaufort sea looks set to continue for a long while. Is the sea ice movement out through the fram being caused by this?

oren

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #334 on: April 15, 2016, 12:03:29 PM »
The export machine is humming. Seems a slight uptick in the Greenland Sea is (at least partly) what caused IJIS extent to stall in the last few days.

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #335 on: April 15, 2016, 12:50:05 PM »
The export machine is humming. Seems a slight uptick in the Greenland Sea is (at least partly) what caused IJIS extent to stall in the last few days.

Since the cryodenialosphere porky pie production line is still humming with fairy tales of "Satellite Problems With Arctic Sea Ice Measurement" not to mention the supposed "Global Sea Ice Strong Comeback",  here's two for the price of one:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #336 on: April 15, 2016, 01:19:53 PM »

Quote
here's two for the price of one:

The Greenland sea ice chart is especially interesting since we are "transitioning" to the next phase of global warming:

1)  Phase #1 was the "attack" on the easiest ice to get at:  The Arctic ice sheet (since it is at sea level...warming oceans get at it first)....and this has been going on for the last 35 years already.

2)  Phase #2 is Greenland:  Now that more and more of the Arctic are "out of the way"....the warming ocean surrounding Greenland will work its magic and continue to melt the Greenland ice sheet at higher and higher altitudes.

3)  Phase #3 is Antarctica:  And yes....it has already started by the oceans warming the underbelly of the ice....but more significant work will wait until Greenland ice melt is further under way....and the Arctic Ocean sees more and more "ice free days" in the future.

In Greenland....I expect SIGNIFCANT changes over the next 5 years.  This year has already started with a bang...

 

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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #337 on: April 15, 2016, 02:18:07 PM »
The export machine is humming. Seems a slight uptick in the Greenland Sea is (at least partly) what caused IJIS extent to stall in the last few days.

Since the cryodenialosphere porky pie production line is still humming with fairy tales of "Satellite Problems With Arctic Sea Ice Measurement" not to mention the supposed "Global Sea Ice Strong Comeback",  here's two for the price of one:

Also CAB has seen increased its extent in the last 30 days  by 100k km2, much of what it is being exported toward Svalbard falls into this region. Below extent in M. Km2 as a function of months (sorry for the lack of labels, I have stolen Wipneus' AMSR2-based calculations plot from ASIG).

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #338 on: April 15, 2016, 04:04:10 PM »
Just looking at the cice drift maps leaves me kind of in awe. Can we expect this to continue for the foreseeable future?

looks like a crazy amount of ice getting thrown out of the fram strait.

The high over the Beaufort sea looks set to continue for a long while. Is the sea ice movement out through the fram being caused by this?

Quick observation: Although being pushed out of the Fram Strait is a death sentence for any ice, you may want to take a look at the NASA images for the ice heading south towards Svalbard.

There's some relatively warm water (showing up as about 0 degrees on SST maps ) just to the north of Svalbard, and once ice hits that area it's just completely melting out. You can see this quite well for the 9 April to 15 April images (sadly I don't have time to insert them now).

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #339 on: April 15, 2016, 04:52:35 PM »
Just looking at the cice drift maps leaves me kind of in awe. Can we expect this to continue for the foreseeable future?

looks like a crazy amount of ice getting thrown out of the fram strait.

The high over the Beaufort sea looks set to continue for a long while. Is the sea ice movement out through the fram being caused by this?

Quick observation: Although being pushed out of the Fram Strait is a death sentence for any ice, you may want to take a look at the NASA images for the ice heading south towards Svalbard.

There's some relatively warm water (showing up as about 0 degrees on SST maps ) just to the north of Svalbard, and once ice hits that area it's just completely melting out. You can see this quite well for the 9 April to 15 April images (sadly I don't have time to insert them now).
Correct on both counts, Metamemsis. 

Regarding the IJIS uptick, I think the answer is dispersion pretty much everywhere in the Arctic.
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #340 on: April 15, 2016, 05:55:38 PM »
Yes, and with pressures in the 1035-1040 hPa range. That's what so insane about this whole event, it just keeps going. I'm going to try and do an update on the ASIB later today.
I've put up a Beaufort update over on the ASIB:



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jdallen

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #341 on: April 15, 2016, 09:41:03 PM »
Yes, and with pressures in the 1035-1040 hPa range. That's what so insane about this whole event, it just keeps going. I'm going to try and do an update on the ASIB later today.
I've put up a Beaufort update over on the ASIB:

Just read it and commented.  Good post, Neven.

An additional thought - this turns up in the US Navy HYCOM/ARC models - the persistent strong flow westward along the northern Alaska coast they forecast to open considerable expanse in the Chukchi, as ice there is forced away from Alaska and then spun around to the NW into the CAB proper.  They don't predict it to stack up particularly on the Siberian side in the ESS, unfortunately.

Opening the Chukchi that much, this soon, with soon to be warming Alaskan interior to keep it from refreezing would be a very dangerous development as it will massively increase the uptake of insolation even without melt ponds.

(Link to the models - watch the NW coast of AK towards the end.)

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2016041318_2016042100_041_arcticictn.001.gif
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #342 on: April 15, 2016, 11:07:34 PM »
I would not focus so much on the Beaufort as on the European side. Within 120hours the Kara region should get into a serious WLA combined with the drift spooning the ice directly into the Fram strait. Given that all models have the weakest ice there since at least 2012, that we know that it has been an excessively warm winter there, and that one can already see the ice turning into a slush and small floes, expect a lot of action. We could actually start making bets if the Kara ice will see June at all. Same between Spitzbergen and FJL - there I have never seen the ice rim so weak and already starting to decay.

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #343 on: April 15, 2016, 11:32:41 PM »
Yes, there's enough stuff for a blog post on that too. I wanted to do something on Svalbard now and this past winter, but maybe I should expand.
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #344 on: April 16, 2016, 04:11:40 AM »
The GISS March  temperature figures are out at:

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

As expected temperatures are nearly as anomoulous as last  month at +128.  The NH anomaly  is +178. Globally this is 36 points above the previous record for March  and 66 points above the 1998 figure.
No respite for the arctic there.
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #345 on: April 16, 2016, 07:40:31 AM »


Snow cover has started to rapidly decline.

As others have said the persistence of this ridge is amazing.

We can expect snow cover to decrease faster over the next 7 days.
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #346 on: April 16, 2016, 07:49:00 AM »
After 7 days of a major ridge.

The gfs slides into more of a traditional GIS/NA side dipole.

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #347 on: April 16, 2016, 08:24:54 AM »
Quote
Meanwhile would it surprise you to learn that several of the usual suspects have been surreally suggesting that "Global sea ice makes a strong comeback!".

I think they're all on the same email group from HQ (Koch Brothers:).  Another site.....which I have posted to has the same thing.  Of course.....they did the same thing in the other "recovery periods) as well in prior years.

I think they will be much more persistent this year.....especially in the US.....as this is an election year.  The fossil fuel companies and their paid bloggers are pushing (lying) hard...even when it makes no sense whatever.  Koch/Watts/others can only keep the sunshine of truth hidden for so long....  I encourage others to post FACTS and SCIENCE to their sites.....
I think the opposite. With a majority of voters now believing in climate change I think the GOP will want these people to STFU until after the election.

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #348 on: April 16, 2016, 08:46:38 AM »


Snow cover has started to rapidly decline.

As others have said the persistence of this ridge is amazing.

We can expect snow cover to decrease faster over the next 7 days.


This is the same Rutgers chart of snow anomalies during March. This year the daily charts have been dispaying this annular pattern (roughly latitude-constant) during Winter and early Spring. To me this is directly related to record global temps. Spring has been coming days, even weeks earlier than usual almost everywhere in the NH. If this continues until Summer it can be bad for the ice (not probable for this to stop given how warm the NH is, and now especially if albedo amplification plays its role in the Arctic regions).

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #349 on: April 16, 2016, 11:57:16 AM »
I've been comparing April conditions with those of previous years (see attached image). The first two weeks of April look remarkable like 2012, both temperature- and pressure-wise. 2013 saw even higher and more widespread high pressure, but temps were lower.

Then I went to the ASIB to check the archive for May and found this blog post from May 23rd with a fantastic video showing what had happened in 2012 between days 90 and 143 (March 30th-May 23rd):

! No longer available

I'm so happy with this video because of the LANCE-MODIS problems with the hard disk failure (no images up to December 2013) and Worldview starts in May 2012.

We can expect something similar this year, and probably worse, as the high faded somewhat during the second half of April 2012, but is currently forecast to continue (strongly) for at least another week. Second attachment shows SLP for second half of 2012.
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