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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4300 on: August 25, 2016, 06:49:52 AM »
Operational 00z GFS run has a possible 958 hpa intensive cyclone by early monday between Franz Josefs land and Novaya Severnaya.

Heck, how much transport of ice will go out to the death zone in the Atlantic?! :O

NEVEN: wrt to your discussion of a definition of a "GAC". Her is my opinion. Easiest and best way to classify these cyclones should be by minimum pressure. A GAC should be in place if two or perhaps three conditions are met:

1) Minimum pressure is below 970 hpa. Between 970-979 hpa it should be seen as a "Moderate Arctic Cyclone" e.g a "MAC" :)

2) By time, a GAC needs to spend some time over the Arctic basin and not fill out too easy.

(3) Time at year. Just for clarification, have the previous GACs intensity only been related to August? What are the lowest pressure readings by June and July?

In any case, we certainly have seen, and will see, a lot of IMO, "PAC MACs".

Another nomeclatura that I think should be usedif the criteria for a GAC isn't met: "IAC" - Intensive Arctic Cyclone"

Best, LMV

bbr2314

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4301 on: August 25, 2016, 07:18:30 AM »
Operational 00z GFS run has a possible 958 hpa intensive cyclone by early monday between Franz Josefs land and Novaya Severnaya.

Heck, how much transport of ice will go out to the death zone in the Atlantic?! :O

NEVEN: wrt to your discussion of a definition of a "GAC". Her is my opinion. Easiest and best way to classify these cyclones should be by minimum pressure. A GAC should be in place if two or perhaps three conditions are met:

1) Minimum pressure is below 970 hpa. Between 970-979 hpa it should be seen as a "Moderate Arctic Cyclone" e.g a "MAC" :)

2) By time, a GAC needs to spend some time over the Arctic basin and not fill out too easy.

(3) Time at year. Just for clarification, have the previous GACs intensity only been related to August? What are the lowest pressure readings by June and July?

In any case, we certainly have seen, and will see, a lot of IMO, "PAC MACs".

Another nomeclatura that I think should be usedif the criteria for a GAC isn't met: "IAC" - Intensive Arctic Cyclone"

Best, LMV
As you said, the GFS has a low under 960, which would be a new record... the amount of wave activity that would drive into the pack combined with the effects of the dipole.... yikes!!!!!

slow wing

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4302 on: August 25, 2016, 07:39:14 AM »
The ice movement over the past two days has been spectacular - see attachment below, from
Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility (OSI SAF) http://osisaf.met.no/p/osisaf_hlprod_qlook.php?prod=LR-Drift-demo&area=NH.

That's not even to mention that they have by now downgraded most of the remaining ice on the Russian side from white to light blue (which presumably means something like 'not very solid'?). Almost all that is left white is now in the main pack off the Canadian Arctic coast as well as one big chunk and some smaller chunks around the Laptev sea - now cut off from the main pack by regions designated light blue that extend almost to the North Pole.

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4303 on: August 25, 2016, 07:42:06 AM »
yes and it is really hurting the MYI

bbr2314

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4304 on: August 25, 2016, 07:43:15 AM »
The ice movement over the past two days has been spectacular - see attachment below, from
Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility (OSI SAF) http://osisaf.met.no/p/osisaf_hlprod_qlook.php?prod=LR-Drift-demo&area=NH.

That's not even to mention that they have by now downgraded most of the remaining ice on the Russian side from white to light blue (which presumably means something like 'not very solid'?). Almost all that is left white is now in the main pack off the Canadian Arctic coast as well as one big chunk and some smaller chunks around the Laptev sea - now cut off from the main pack by regions designated light blue that extend almost to the North Pole.
Good post!

I suspect the triangle of white N of Greenland and the CAA is all that survives, besides a few bits of brash ice in the remaining white areas N of Siberia.

The biggest question is whether the appendage now dangling into the Atlantic makes it or not. Another GAC or two would be all it takes, I think...

bbr2314

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4305 on: August 25, 2016, 07:54:03 AM »
T-48 until the Arctic loses the cold contents of its stomach into Siberia, replaced by warm Pacific air... this may be the last hurrah for significant surface melt in the 'stable triangle' N of CAA/Greenland, at least.


S.Pansa

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4306 on: August 25, 2016, 08:09:10 AM »
Thanks slow wing!

These effects can also be seen in the TOPAZ4 model, based on the ECMWF forecast (changes best observed by opening the pics in a separate tab and switching between them - yes I am too lazy to make a GIF).
Most stunning thing to me is the Fram-Transport (see the huge junk of 2m+ ice that heads towards oblivion). As Werther and Lodger have already pointed out, this will hurt the remaining reservoir of multiyear ice.

Looking at the PIOMAS anomaly maps from Wipneus', 2016 might even have a slight chance to go after the 2012 volume min (contrary to that, area and extent should be save) - or at least get close to 4.000 km^3 perhaps?
Laptev, ESS and the region north of Lincoln Sea at least are catching up fast according to TOPAZ4.

Cheers!

bbr2314

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4307 on: August 25, 2016, 08:28:48 AM »
The models are showing this monster recurving into Siberia and eventually ending up into the Arctic... with a similar event possible re: Gustav on the Atlantic side. I wonder if this results in our penultimate GAC of the season?

I don't think I've ever seen a storm that big before, fairly sure it would dwarf even Typhoon Tip... and I don't think it is disconnected from the horrible state of the ice this year.


Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4308 on: August 25, 2016, 09:20:59 AM »
In the end: I suppose the extent will keep stalling in the days to come, creating a mirage-like image hiding what's really happening on the "ground": An unceasingly spread of the remaining ice east of the north pole (when I say east I mean starting right at the north pole all the way east).

I'm not sure what you mean - all directions are south from the north pole.

In any case it seem so far that the ice being in poor condition, and being spread around hasn't really encouraged it to melt, and I'm not sure there's any reason for this week to be dfiferent.

Hello JO, "Atlantic side" of the ice would have been more precise. There is a lot of spread that doesn't change area because the whole Atlantic front is melting constantly. So the ice from there towards the pole is thinning more and more. Concerning the ESS for example, I fully agree with you - lot of spread but slow melt. Though gradually things are looking different there, too ...
« Last Edit: August 25, 2016, 09:35:37 AM by Thawing Thunder »
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Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4309 on: August 25, 2016, 09:32:59 AM »
Lord M Vader: Why not call it a PAC MAN eating away the ice?

S. Pansa: Those TOPAZ maps are frightening me. They seem to have been precise for the last weeks, haven't they?
« Last Edit: August 25, 2016, 09:16:50 PM by Thawing Thunder »
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4310 on: August 25, 2016, 10:18:48 AM »
The models are showing this monster recurving into Siberia and eventually ending up into the Arctic... with a similar event possible re: Gustav on the Atlantic side. I wonder if this results in our penultimate GAC of the season?
Ultimate, we hope! If there are more after this then it starts to look persistent.

jdallen

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4311 on: August 25, 2016, 10:30:48 AM »
T-48 until the Arctic loses the cold contents of its stomach into Siberia, replaced by warm Pacific air... this may be the last hurrah for significant surface melt in the 'stable triangle' N of CAA/Greenland, at least.

Don't think surface melt will stack up to much, however, the heat that *would* have left the water to the atmosphere, *will* go into the ice instead.

It will be interesting to see how things turn out after the storm.  It is infuriating how little we can actually see.
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4312 on: August 25, 2016, 10:36:52 AM »
T-48 until the Arctic loses the cold contents of its stomach into Siberia, replaced by warm Pacific air... this may be the last hurrah for significant surface melt in the 'stable triangle' N of CAA/Greenland, at least.

Don't think surface melt will stack up to much, however, the heat that *would* have left the water to the atmosphere, *will* go into the ice instead.

It will be interesting to see how things turn out after the storm.  It is infuriating how little we can actually see.
I feel like we've been saying this for almost a month at this point... every time it looks all-clear, we get another one. I mean, in 2-3 days we see another ~970mb low enter the Arctic around Siberia, followed by another in the Kara Sea ~D4-5... it has been very difficult to accurately gauge what is going on!

The mega-HP about to build over the Pac/North American side should give some clarity, though even then we'll still be dealing with a major low spinning over Kara.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016082500/gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_18.png

JayW

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4313 on: August 25, 2016, 12:51:24 PM »
A small area of clearing is moving on the Russian side of the pole, you can peek through.  I think it speaks for itself.

24 hours
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4314 on: August 25, 2016, 01:17:49 PM »
An impressive amount of compression and movement toward the Atlantic/Greenland from most of the pack for just 1 day.


The weather patterns that produced this are only going to strengthen over the next 5 days. From this, I'd anticipate an end to the recent melt season "hiatus" and above average extent (and possibly area) losses through the weekend and early next week.

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4315 on: August 25, 2016, 07:46:42 PM »
it looks to me like the north pole may be ice free this year.  Comparing the Bremen SIE maps from 2012 to today it looks much worse now, in fact worse than any year in the record.

it should also be considered that the extra push outside of the fram straight this late season will lead to an extension of the minimum once it is reached as refreeze occurs in the CAB but periphery is still melting out on the Atlantic side.

Are we still far from a new SIE minimum this year?  yes, I think so but not nearly as far as we were only 1 week ago!

edit: rough estimation of the pack ice moving through the fram shows an expansion of about 100 km south and east over the last 6 days, the reason that the border is not expanding is the rapid rate of meltout that occurs at the lower edge. 
« Last Edit: August 25, 2016, 08:01:16 PM by jai mitchell »
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FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4316 on: August 25, 2016, 08:53:10 PM »
This may be the strongest fetch across the Arctic towards the Atlantic that I have ever seen.

Thanks to Levi Cowan at Tropicaltidbits:

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4317 on: August 25, 2016, 09:38:36 PM »
This may be the strongest fetch across the Arctic towards the Atlantic that I have ever seen.

I'll second that. Hell and high pressure.
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4318 on: August 25, 2016, 11:51:58 PM »
2016: A Cavalcade of Storms?
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4319 on: August 26, 2016, 12:12:21 AM »
The situation is really extraordinary however it goes. Global warming manifests each year in different peculiar ways.
Looking at the ice state of this year, I have to agree with so many people here, is probably the worst and leaving a lot of ice loss potential for 2017.

This season progress does not invalidate the importance of ocean currents conditioned by the bathimetry of the Arctic which may set barriers for melting difficult to cross in coming years.
In fact, I wonder if a extreme central Arctic cyclone or a succesion of them in May-June as hinted before (by others) capable of really opening huge gaps in the middle of the pack, then maintained and amplified by relentless insolation, is needed to go below 1 M km2. From the periphery inwards there seem to be some limits.
This year was stormy in June, but moster storms would be needed to really "tear apart the Arctic in pieces" very soon enough. Otherwise, winterr is comin.
I guess it will happen one of these years.

I missed more weather comments earlier in the season. Very interesting weather events even if they looked ice-preserving and not straight waa's or monster dipoles.

NeilT

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4320 on: August 26, 2016, 12:57:23 AM »
Looking at today's Lance rapid response Modis, it looks like the ice is setting itself up for a large polynya to appear between the pole and the Atlantic some time early next month.

This also happened in 2006, in the Beaufort and in 2007 all that area vanished, never to really recover.

That would make an interesting change in 2017.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4321 on: August 26, 2016, 01:09:22 AM »
The attached Nullschool Surface Wind & MSLP images from August 25 to 28, respectively; show that we will likely have at least four continuous days of strong dipole:
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Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4322 on: August 26, 2016, 01:34:13 AM »

Looking at the ice state of this year, I have to agree with so many people here, is probably the worst and leaving a lot of ice loss potential for 2017.


The ice is certainly the most disperse, with the most open water in between the floes.  But I don't think this necessarily relates to ice condition, or future melt potential.  In particular this late in the season there is little opportunity for open water in between floes to absorb solar radiation and transmit this to the adjacent floes, whereas early in the season this is much more of an issue.  In my opinion it is thickness, and surface melt ponding/albedo that matters for ice condition.  (Although dispersed floes mean more potential for compaction and extent drops).  Looking at MODIS, smoky/swirly patterns where the floes are too small to be individually visible are what ice looks like when its on its last legs and in the process of melting out.  Comparing three years at the same zoom:

2016  Small amounts of smoky/swirly ice on the left.  Large amounts of open water.  A small number of medium to larger sized floes.

2013  Small amounts of swirly/smoky ice on the left.  Not so much open water.  Noticeably larger number of medium to larger sized floes.  If you look further towards the pole there are larger areas of more solid looking stuff, which is not really present this year.
2012  Large amounts of swirly/smoky ice.  Low amounts of visible water in between the floes.  No visible larger or medium sized floes.  Moving towards the pole the pack quickly changes to a solid looking structure.  Moving towards Laptev and changing dates to get a cloud free view shows the ice edge is not as bad in that direction, but still has higher amounts of swirly/smoky ice than visible this year.

My assessment:  2016 has very large amounts of intermediate quality ice that does not have time to melt out, but relatively low amounts of ice that is in the last stages of melting and can be expected to melt out quickly.  2012 had larger amounts of very poor quality ice that does have time to melt out this late in the melt season.  There is a larger potential for compaction this year due to the dispersed nature of the ice, depending on whether we get suitable weather for compaction, or a continuation of the general trend for weather that favours dispersal.  (once we get beyond the current reliable forecast period showing a compaction favouring dipole)
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4323 on: August 26, 2016, 01:51:58 AM »
...
Most stunning thing to me is the Fram-Transport (see the huge [h]unk of 2m+ ice that heads towards oblivion). As Werther and Lodger have already pointed out, this will hurt the remaining reservoir of multiyear ice.
...
I would guess that these floes that are thicker than 2 m. will not melt quickly as they go through Fram Strait, even in the 'warm' Atlantic water that has melted just about all other exported ice 'on contact'.  Therefore, I suspect the Greenland Sea SIA & SIE will not decrease too much move over the next month.  (After that, of course, these thick floes will head south and ultimately melt.)

The first image is from S. Pansa's post.  The 2nd 'screenshot' is from Polar View (August 24, 2016) - Greenland's NE corner is in the lower left corner - shows some pretty big floes.
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FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4324 on: August 26, 2016, 03:54:30 AM »
Responding about typhoon in WPac. Off topic but critically important. That typhoon isn't close to typhoon Tip's low pressure but it is forecast to slam central Japan, possibly Tokyo, at major hurricane strength. It could be an enormous disaster if this forecast verifies. The effects of this typhoon's moisture and heat on the Arctic is insignificant compared to what might happen to millions of people living in Japan.

Previous forecasts I have seen took this typhoon out to sea & didn't curve it back into Japan. This typhoon has had a bizarre track so far and it could get worse. I'm shocked by this European model run. It forecasts a horrific disaster for Japan beginning in 4 days. Graphics courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com


bbr2314

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4325 on: August 26, 2016, 03:59:34 AM »
Responding about typhoon in WPac. Off topic but critically important. That typhoon isn't close to typhoon Tip's low pressure but it is forecast to slam central Japan, possibly Tokyo, at major hurricane strength. It could be an enormous disaster if this forecast verifies. The effects of this typhoon's moisture and heat on the Arctic is insignificant compared to what might happen to millions of people living in Japan.

Previous forecasts I have seen took this typhoon out to sea & didn't curve it back into Japan. This typhoon has had a bizarre track so far and it could get worse. I'm shocked by this European model run. It forecasts a horrific disaster for Japan beginning in 4 days. Graphics courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com

You are correct. And it cannot be coincidental that this is happening with the ice in the state it's in. The real scary question is whether another Sandy hits NYC this year as well -- if it's already happening in the WPAC, why not the Atlantic?

Seems to me like we are witnessing the start of the storms Hansen explicitly predicted. The sheer scope of the Japan event is just.... I mean, it covers all of Japan, and will stretch all the way into Manchuria and SE Russia!

epiphyte

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4326 on: August 26, 2016, 04:06:24 AM »
This may be the strongest fetch across the Arctic towards the Atlantic that I have ever seen.

I'll second that. Hell and high pressure.

One might speculate that at some point the wave height, coupled with the presence of sparsely-distributed near-neutral buoyancy ice chunks, could engender much mayhem through vertical mixing. If that happens, would the usual -10 degree surface air temp be enough to start freezing, or even to stem continuing melt?...

...I for one don't have a clue. I console myself with the thought that no-one else does either!


seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4327 on: August 26, 2016, 05:48:45 AM »

Looking at the ice state of this year, I have to agree with so many people here, is probably the worst and leaving a lot of ice loss potential for 2017.


The ice is certainly the most disperse, with the most open water in between the floes.  But I don't think this necessarily relates to ice condition, or future melt potential.  In particular this late in the season there is little opportunity for open water in between floes to absorb solar radiation and transmit this to the adjacent floes, whereas early in the season this is much more of an issue.  In my opinion it is thickness, and surface melt ponding/albedo that matters for ice condition.  (Although dispersed floes mean more potential for compaction and extent drops).  Looking at MODIS, smoky/swirly patterns where the floes are too small to be individually visible are what ice looks like when its on its last legs and in the process of melting out.

Michael, just to make sure, I was talking about the implications for 2017 mainly. No way the extent goes below 2012 this year. However, the size and spatial configuration of the main pack in October 2016 will be very bad, with MYI almost sure lower than 2015, and ice pack tilted toward the Atlantic ready to go South, already going down.
And what I am calling main pack here, note, includes all the low concentration stuff from the ESS bite to the Pole and Barentz that will just get compacted some and refrozen most.
With normal transpolar-Fram drift during wiinter, all peripheral seas and almost half the CAB will be made of FYI in spring except maybe isolated nucleae and whatever is transported to Beaufort. Downward trend wrt 2015.
Pretty bad but (let me repeat myself) going much below 2012 in future years, I wonder, might require extraordinary divergence well within the CAB and well before insolation peak. Otherwise no much heat can be trapped there before refreezing in September (like this year).  Not sure early melt ponds could make it alone.
« Last Edit: August 26, 2016, 05:58:12 AM by seaicesailor »

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4328 on: August 26, 2016, 05:58:48 AM »
I think the way the Arctic will be set up this year for next year, the "badness" will be in the form of the ice getting in really terrible shape earlier in the melt season next year and  having lower numbers for a longer duration. This will have a marked effect on world weather events. This year was just the preview. Sorry to be gloomy, but it's for real.

budmantis

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4329 on: August 26, 2016, 06:04:57 AM »
The AMSR2 map for 8/25 really got my attention. According to the map, almost 5/8's of the ice north of 80 degrees is at 75% or less concentration.

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4330 on: August 26, 2016, 06:18:27 AM »

And what I am calling main pack here, note, includes all the low concentration stuff from the ESS bite to the Pole and Barentz that will just get compacted some and refrozen most.
With normal transpolar-Fram drift during wiinter, all peripheral seas and almost half the CAB will be made of FYI in spring except maybe isolated nucleae and whatever is transported to Beaufort. Downward trend wrt 2015.

I think the lack of multiyear ice in the Beaufort region will be significant for next year.  Maybe some of the existing multi-year ice will be pushed in that direction, but I doubt it will become an arm extending across the Chukchi as it was this year, albeit noticeably dispersed and mixed with first year ice.  Not sure the lack of multi-year ice towards CAB and Atlantic will matter much with the thickness of first year ice built up in ESS, and the restrictions on ice regrowth during winter by export being the controlling factors of how at least the early to mid melt season progresses. 

Pretty bad but (let me repeat myself) going much below 2012 in future years, I wonder, might require extraordinary divergence well within the CAB and well before insolation peak. Otherwise no much heat can be trapped there before refreezing in September (like this year).  Not sure early melt ponds could make it alone.

2007 vs 2012.  How much of the lower result in 2012 was due to the long term trend, or was some of it due to the 2012 disperse and then heat method being more dangerous than the 2007 of heat, and push it out the Atlantic method.  Judging by what 2007 did to an ice pack that held much more robust multi-year ice than anything we've seen since, and considering 10 years of further warming and counting I suspect a 2007 repeat would give nearly ice free conditions a very good shot.  2007 and 2012 both broke previous records by similar amounts and I'm inclined to believe that both were equally destructive weather set ups.
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4331 on: August 26, 2016, 07:50:18 AM »
The "triangle" of fortitude north of CAA & Greenland will undergo a test of its durability over the next three days. AMSR2 shows weakening today and MODIS shows continued inroads especially along its western flank.

The 00z GFS shows between .5-1" of rain over this portion of the pack associated with the impending GAC that enters ~970mb.





With bottom melt in full drive elsewhere due to the disrupted Halocline, this portends significant damage to one of the only solid remaining areas of ice. The surface heat alone isn't too substantial but the rain combined with high winds will be very impactful.

That could peel off another 100-200K of "safe" ice, IMO.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4332 on: August 26, 2016, 08:07:55 AM »
EURO agrees... not only is main low 971 @ D2, there's another @ 978mb over the Kara/Siberian side ice edge at the same time.


budmantis

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4333 on: August 26, 2016, 08:10:50 AM »
Good stuff BBR! Not bad for a young elephant! LOL

bbr2314

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4334 on: August 26, 2016, 08:18:14 AM »
I cannot believe this is possible, btw. If this were to verify Tokyo's skyscrapers would endure winds of 120-150+ MPH and the city would be hit with a 20 foot+ storm surge. This is literally a vision out of The Day After Tomorrow.

It is relevant to the melt season because it brings a 500mb heat belch into the Arctic around D8-9.


BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4335 on: August 26, 2016, 08:27:32 AM »
3 days of compaction


Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4336 on: August 26, 2016, 10:07:26 AM »
3 days of compaction

While there certainly are those 3 days of compaction, I may indicate that the apparent compacting movement of the ice is mostly cloud drift - many of those areas changing vom highly concentrated violet to red and yellow have been thawing in days before. The clouds are influencing much in those Bremen concentration maps.
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AmbiValent

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4337 on: August 26, 2016, 11:18:50 AM »
I think the ice motion in the Uni Bremen map looks more like transpolar drift. Some real compaction will likely happen when high pressure dominance over the ocean returns.
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effbeh

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4338 on: August 26, 2016, 11:32:44 AM »
Followed Buoy #14 for some days now, currently showing plenty of open water with very little ice
left:

http://obuoy.datatransport.org/monitor#buoy14/camera

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4339 on: August 26, 2016, 12:57:28 PM »
When I say compaction, what I mean is that the area covered by ice over the last three days has become concentrated toward northern Greenland/Fram Strait region at an increasingly fast rate.
This was not apparent is the preceding few days, which strongly suggests that the current wind pattern is playing a dominant role. Such a fragmented pack is ripe for being pushed around by the wind.

The influence of the wind should become even more apparent during the weekend as those the isobars tighten and the pressure gradients steepens.

iceman

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4340 on: August 26, 2016, 02:27:05 PM »
   ....
it should also be considered that the extra push outside of the fram straight this late season will lead to an extension of the minimum once it is reached as refreeze occurs in the CAB but periphery is still melting out on the Atlantic side.
   ....

Not sure I follow your reasoning.  Greenland Sea ice is near a record low, so it can't contribute much to overall melting during September.  Even the substantial wind-driven increase we can expect to see there in the next week would not be enough to offset early re-freeze in the high latitudes following heavy compaction in late August / early September.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4341 on: August 26, 2016, 02:52:25 PM »
A glimpse through the clouds in the calm before the next storm:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/08/the-great-arctic-cyclone-of-2016/#Aug-25
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jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4342 on: August 26, 2016, 07:32:24 PM »
   ....
it should also be considered that the extra push outside of the fram straight this late season will lead to an extension of the minimum once it is reached as refreeze occurs in the CAB but periphery is still melting out on the Atlantic side.
   ....

Not sure I follow your reasoning.  Greenland Sea ice is near a record low, so it can't contribute much to overall melting during September.  Even the substantial wind-driven increase we can expect to see there in the next week would not be enough to offset early re-freeze in the high latitudes following heavy compaction in late August / early September.

You are right, thanks I was also including the expansion of the eastern edge toward Franz Joseph but this is still within the CAB and doesn't count.  I see this as a dispersal event, not a compaction event.  There is some compaction to be sure, however the amount of measured reduction in SIE is minimal since these regions already have near 100% cover.  It is the 60%-80% regions that are being dispersed with an expanding periphery.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4343 on: August 26, 2016, 08:10:06 PM »
The "triangle" of fortitude north of CAA & Greenland will undergo a test of its durability over the next three days. AMSR2 shows weakening today and MODIS shows continued inroads especially along its western flank.

The 00z GFS shows between .5-1" of rain over this portion of the pack associated with the impending GAC that enters ~970mb.

With bottom melt in full drive elsewhere due to the disrupted Halocline, this portends significant damage to one of the only solid remaining areas of ice. The surface heat alone isn't too substantial but the rain combined with high winds will be very impactful.

That could peel off another 100-200K of "safe" ice, IMO.
:o
You may not be far off here.  The rain will deliver a huge amount of heat for this time of year - enough in fact to peel off a couple of centimeters of ice as top melt.  Along with the wind, it will contribute to what should be a significant weakening of the pack.

Over all though, what is standing out most starkly right now with a line of powerful lows across the center and the Eurasian side of the pack, is the wind tunnel running through the North American side.  It will drive ice along at 20KM/day minimum into the grinder along the Atlantic front.  That's potentially as much as 100,000KM2 of ice into water warm enough to melt it out in less than two days.

If this system persists as it appears it may from the forecasts, I may need to revise my September estimates down sharply.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4344 on: August 26, 2016, 08:14:48 PM »
A glimpse through the clouds in the calm before the next storm:

Scientific wild-assed guess inspires me to conclude at least half of that is due to disappear over the next few days.
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Nick_Naylor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4345 on: August 26, 2016, 08:46:43 PM »
There are polynyas around the pole in every direction. Too bad we can't see through the clouds - it might be possible to swim at the pole right now.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4346 on: August 26, 2016, 08:50:12 PM »
There are polynyas around the pole in every direction. Too bad we can't see through the clouds - it might be possible to swim at the pole right now.

With legitimate compaction likely to start soon instead of continued free drift (i.e., melt), it seems likely that the "Triangle of Fortitude" may retreat to the lower left of that image, leaving the pole completely ice-free...

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4347 on: August 26, 2016, 09:07:47 PM »
You "can" see through the clouds with the Polar View images, just not quite to the North Pole.  Here are screen prints from two images, one from the Pacific side of the NP and the other from the Atlantic side.  (Both from today.)  The third screen print is from the 'full detail' view from the Atlantic side image. 

It can take some learning to read these images, but the lighter areas are ice and the darker areas are open water.
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4348 on: August 26, 2016, 09:38:07 PM »
There are polynyas around the pole in every direction. Too bad we can't see through the clouds - it might be possible to swim at the pole right now.
Wear a wet suit. Also, a little axle grease on the back of your neck will slow the hypothermia down. ;)

Neven

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4349 on: August 26, 2016, 10:17:11 PM »
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