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Author Topic: The 2016 melting season  (Read 1476441 times)

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4850 on: September 19, 2016, 07:22:29 PM »
Early in the melting season I asked if all the multiyear ice that got exported into the Beaufort Sea might provide a barrier and prevent the Beaufort Sea (and neighboring CAB areas) from losing much ice (as it did several years ago).  One response was a resounding (and brief) "No."  Even though Big Block is still fighting the good fight, its fellow thick ice compatriots gave up the ghost long ago, and the resounding "No" was quite accurate.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4851 on: September 19, 2016, 07:34:10 PM »
In the end, we may never know, since it is dropping below AMSR2 resolution now, and Modis won't be much help with the sun setting.

Don't forget the occasional glimpse on Sentinel 1A via PolarView though:

http://www.polarview.aq/arctic

With Wipneus' able assistance I have been experimenting with a 1% AMSR2 extent threshold. This from September 9th:

That image shows some ice nearing Barrow now. And the webcam is showing some sea ice (which wasn't there a week ago). I probably should have posted in the freezing thread !

http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_webcam
 


Andreas T

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4852 on: September 19, 2016, 08:05:26 PM »
Early in the melting season I asked if all the multiyear ice that got exported into the Beaufort Sea might provide a barrier and prevent the Beaufort Sea (and neighboring CAB areas) from losing much ice (as it did several years ago).  One response was a resounding (and brief) "No."  Even though Big Block is still fighting the good fight, its fellow thick ice compatriots gave up the ghost long ago, and the resounding "No" was quite accurate.
What needs to be taken into consideration there is what happened to the ice in the Beaufort when multiyear ice was being imported into it. That ice moved west in that persistent gyre and I suspect is what helped the Wrangle arm to last this long and similar west ward movement strengthened the ice in Laptev. That ice didn't move north as it has done in previous years when we saw a large Laptev bite and thus there was the opening of "rubble" nearer the pole.
What we can't see is what would have happened in the Beaufort without the multiyear ice which moved into it. That early open water should have had more drastic effect, I suspect, without it.

A-Team

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4853 on: September 19, 2016, 10:03:52 PM »
Terra bands 3-6-7 has really turned effective the last couple of days in peering through the clouds, with Sept 19th still coming in.

The first frame steps back from Yuha's view of Big Block remnants to show the cyclone and other open areas, BB still on the far left (confirmed by lat/lon coordinates matching AMSR2).

The second frame shows a large sector of swirly ice to the west of the Wrangel arm; the third the entrance to Nansen Sound animated in #4839; and the fourth the contents of Nares Strait.

The second animation, the same Sept 18th scene with and without land mask, presumably has a meteorological explanation for why interior Alaska land is green but land elsewhere in the scene, like the sea ice, is orange. http://go.nasa.gov/2dbJSHO
« Last Edit: September 19, 2016, 10:19:40 PM by A-Team »

Ninebelowzero

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4854 on: September 21, 2016, 05:03:02 PM »
Freezing season should start when ice coverage is increasing in all areas and vice versa for melting.

Any time in between should be 'open' season where contributors can take pot shots at each other arguing the toss.   8)

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4855 on: September 22, 2016, 06:17:12 AM »

Sigmetnow

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4856 on: September 22, 2016, 06:47:53 PM »
Rescuers Reach Russian Meteorologists Trapped by Polar Bears
Quote
Five meteorologists who were trapped for two weeks after polar bears surrounded their weather station are now able to leave the building after the creatures were chased away, their supervisor told NBC News early Wednesday.

They had been holed up in their facility on the Izvestiy TSIK Islands — around 2,800 miles from Moscow — after around a dozen of the animals moved into the area.

The meteorologists ran out of signal flares that they had been using to scare away the bears, which had previously eaten their guard dog.
...
The bears usually leave the islands in the summer, but this time they were stranded by the melting ice, an apparent sign of climate change, according to Shevchenko.
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/rescuers-reach-russian-meteorologists-trapped-polar-bears-n648021
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Iceismylife

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4857 on: September 27, 2016, 05:18:09 PM »
http://go.nasa.gov/2dh8G3D

If you toggle back and forth on this you get to see lots of ice flowing around the corner.

Ninebelowzero

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4858 on: September 27, 2016, 11:40:13 PM »
Is the transpolar current strengthening or just carrying a lot of heat?

Archimid

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4859 on: September 30, 2016, 03:27:05 AM »
I thought it was a very informative panel.

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

budmantis

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4860 on: September 30, 2016, 06:43:30 AM »
Thanks for the link Archimid.

Ninebelowzero

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4861 on: October 04, 2016, 02:02:18 PM »



I was thinking more "melting season, freezing season melting s..." etc :)


timallard

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4862 on: October 11, 2016, 10:37:12 PM »
The change in refreeze rate and extent is 3-days ahead of 2011 what this year seemed to follow since spring and 4 behind 2007, quite noticeably altering rate, warm water?

Screenshot just now:

-tom

Iceismylife

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4863 on: December 24, 2016, 06:14:54 PM »
Ending up with melting. Who would've thunk.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4864 on: December 24, 2016, 06:47:26 PM »
Ending up with melting. Who would've thunk.
If you gonna get a bunch of folks together and clean the dust out of this old thread, I guess I will give you a hand.

be cause

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4865 on: December 24, 2016, 08:29:47 PM »
 In the New Year , Ecmwf (and gem) have monster lows entering the Arctic from the Pacific side . 850's above zero North of Canada !!! Uncharted territory me thinks . December has been as anticipated .. a disaster in the making .. January adds fuel to the fire .. if forecasts are realized . Looks like parallel threads for a while .. until the freezing one enters history ...bc
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

timallard

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4866 on: December 25, 2016, 04:13:39 AM »
From recent work the AOC is about 15-sverdrup with 3 going into the Arctic Basin on the Asian side, since warm water is the most likely suspect consider the Pacific water is some 0.8-0.9 sverdrup an input of 30-Twh/year in heat and hydraulically pulls in about an equal amount to compensate as a closed circulation, the basin empties to the Atlantic ccw to influx.

Reducing the Pacific water inflow reduces Atlantic inflow with such evidence it seems it's mandatory, nullschool is still showing waves in the Chukchi Sea ice or not it's allowing waves to record, to me that's incredible heat flow evidence.

Suggest reducing flow through Bering Straits by 1/100th in climate models, add year-round ice in the straits, then polder all of the Chukchi Sea next stage and last stage 1/2 the Bering Sea at the drop off.

Model that for jetstream flow it should turn the Hawaii flow eastward sooner as a cold-forcing the thesis of how it will alter global flow, a key indicator that California gets more moisture in the models.

If models validate the concept as worthy we must create a sea-ice refuge there somehow to forestall what's going on with the warmer, fresher water that this year is pretty obviously too warm with storm winds to allow a normal freeze-up the thought.
-tom

mmghosh

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4867 on: December 25, 2016, 07:45:05 AM »
Reopening the melting thread in the last week of December has got to be the lolololol moment of the year!

timallard

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4868 on: December 25, 2016, 05:26:05 PM »
Yeah, it stalled again ...
-tom

be cause

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4869 on: December 29, 2016, 01:44:36 PM »
If anyone fancies a swim .. open water and ice drama north shore of Greenland ..
Dmi Morris Jesup .. Sentinel-1 28-12-2016 ..
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...