Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: The 2016 melting season  (Read 1552400 times)

magnamentis

  • Guest
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #700 on: April 29, 2016, 10:06:07 PM »
Obuoy14 is not near the area discussed but the pattern may apply. Obuoy13 http://obuoy.datatransport.org/monitor#buoy13/weather also has that cycle even without the diurnal temperature variation. Could the presence of open water even  strengthen the cycle.
There is a clear 24 hour oscillation in wind speed. Since the ice forms at first in loose platelets its movement may well be the cause of these daily "growth rings".
Temperatures at Barrow are higher than between these still cold ice floes and I have doubts that the -10 deg which are often quoted are really such an absolute limit.

ok, didn't see that the post referred to buoy 14 or 13, the pic was showing quite some open water and distorted ice cover which is close to the coastline mostly and the temps on that coast are very similar from McKenzie delta over to Barrow. however perhaps i just got that wrong and good to know that those -10C limit is not as absolute as one can get the impression while reading through forums and blogs, thanks for clarification.
« Last Edit: April 30, 2016, 12:05:50 AM by magnamentis »

A-Team

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2448
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 301
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #701 on: April 29, 2016, 10:23:38 PM »
The 24 days in April animated below show the exit of Amundsen Gulf at Banks Island, a nearby and sometimes synergistic partner of the Mackenzie freshwater injector. As the Amundsen melts out, the wind fetch becomes longer, conspiring with prevailing wind direction and consistently high speed to make larger waves in the Beaufort, which is unfavorable for re-freezing, floe persistence, avoidance of turbulently mixed warm water, and retention rather than export to the floe graveyard of the Chukchi.

Peter Ellis

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 617
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 35
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #702 on: April 29, 2016, 10:33:07 PM »
http://go.nasa.gov/1Tk5Qoi

If you look in the open leads here and scroll back and forward a few days, you can watch new ice being formed each day, and count each night's growth as a separate band.  It looks to me as though refreezing stopped on the 26th or 27th is some of the leads, but is ongoing in others.  Someone better than I can probably make the animation to prove it (he said, hopefully).

A-Team

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2448
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 301
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #703 on: April 29, 2016, 11:14:45 PM »
Quote
refreezing stopped on the 26th or 27th is some of the leads, but is ongoing in others.
I'm not in the habit of constructing radiatiave transfer functions that aren't fit for purpose, see #488 4th animation. There are however legitimate ice interpretive issues in scenes where individual pixels are at best 250 m on a side, with thin clouds and variable illumination. It is not enough to 'see' or 'intuit' refreezing, there has to be an evidentiary rationale. For that reason, the vastly improved true color 10 m Sentinel 2A (625-fold areal improvement over Aqua Modis) as in #644 gives some guidance when applied to the same scenes. However leads can be in a whole lot of different states other than refrozen/not refrozen binary classification bins.
« Last Edit: April 30, 2016, 01:45:32 AM by A-Team »

magnamentis

  • Guest
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #704 on: April 30, 2016, 12:12:31 AM »
as predicted those wet snow spots today with a bit of sunshine turned into genuine melt ponds, clearly distinguishable by the reflections of liquid water as compared to the mate wet snow from yesterday and the roads indeed became close to snow free muddy rough roads.

johnm33

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1292
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 86
  • Likes Given: 43
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #705 on: April 30, 2016, 12:49:38 AM »
Magnamentis "ok, didn't see that the post referred to buoy 14 or 13, the pic was showing quite some open water and distorted ice cover which is close to the coastline mostly and the temps on that coast are very similar from McKenzie delta over to Barrow. however perhaps i just got that wrong and good to know that those -10C limit is not as absolute as one can get the impression while reading through forums and blogs, thanks for clarification."
-11C seems to be what it takes to freeze seawater, but if there's fresh water on the surface from ongoing melt? who knows.

ghoti

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 766
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 12
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #706 on: April 30, 2016, 02:20:02 AM »
Also note the the tides in the bay at Kimmirut are huge

http://www.kimmirutweather.com/tideprediction.html

That certainly has to add to the tendency for ice to break and water to pool.

magnamentis

  • Guest
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #707 on: April 30, 2016, 02:30:09 AM »
Magnamentis "ok, didn't see that the post referred to buoy 14 or 13, the pic was showing quite some open water and distorted ice cover which is close to the coastline mostly and the temps on that coast are very similar from McKenzie delta over to Barrow. however perhaps i just got that wrong and good to know that those -10C limit is not as absolute as one can get the impression while reading through forums and blogs, thanks for clarification."
-11C seems to be what it takes to freeze seawater, but if there's fresh water on the surface from ongoing melt? who knows.

certainly you have a point as to salinity is a factor, just wondering out of curiosity whether it's possible that at those wind speeds and wave hight it's possible that fresh water would stay on the surface because it's less dense
it's like in astrophysics, each theory and observation raises a multitude of new questions, very complex indeed :-)
thanks for the hint however, perhaps one of the pros has a more educated opinion on the matter.

Greenbelt

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 140
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 23
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #708 on: April 30, 2016, 02:51:21 AM »
Nearing 0c at Sachs Harbour this today. Record high temps will be approached this week.

Location:  https://www.google.com/maps/place/Sachs+Harbour,+NT,+Canada/@71.9866738,-143.1961827,4z/data=!4m2!3m1!1s0x5109fd63f172c395:0xae7a914c6901e9c2
Weather:  http://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nt-19_metric_e.html
Records:  http://weather.gc.ca/almanac/almanac_e.html?id=2503650

ecojosh

  • New ice
  • Posts: 5
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #709 on: April 30, 2016, 06:19:42 AM »



Rivers Ob and Yenis now have long reaches of open water that should soon be reaching the Kara.  The Lena is open just below L. Baikal but has a long cold slide to the delta.  The Mackenzie is still tight from Lake Athabaska north but should begin to open this coming week if the forecast is at all accurate.  The Red River of the North is also still solid and running through a snow covered landscape.
[/quote]


As for the Red from Winnipeg to Lake Winnipeg, it has been wide open for weeks.  Possibly, you are thinking about the Nelson that runs into Hudson Bay.

oren

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4533
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 911
  • Likes Given: 1305
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #710 on: April 30, 2016, 07:48:55 AM »



Rivers Ob and Yenis now have long reaches of open water that should soon be reaching the Kara.  The Lena is open just below L. Baikal but has a long cold slide to the delta.  The Mackenzie is still tight from Lake Athabaska north but should begin to open this coming week if the forecast is at all accurate.  The Red River of the North is also still solid and running through a snow covered landscape.
Or probably Arctic Red River?

As for the Red from Winnipeg to Lake Winnipeg, it has been wide open for weeks.  Possibly, you are thinking about the Nelson that runs into Hudson Bay.
[/quote]

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1507
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 140
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #711 on: April 30, 2016, 09:14:30 AM »
Parts of the arctic will see albedo busting weather.






What the hell?

Insane!!!!!








Its FU***** April 29th
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Andreas T

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1127
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 13
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #712 on: April 30, 2016, 09:24:03 AM »
Nearing 0c at Sachs Harbour this today. Record high temps will be approached this week.

Location:  https://www.google.com/maps/place/Sachs+Harbour,+NT,+Canada/@71.9866738,-143.1961827,4z/data=!4m2!3m1!1s0x5109fd63f172c395:0xae7a914c6901e9c2
Weather:  http://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nt-19_metric_e.html
Records:  http://weather.gc.ca/almanac/almanac_e.html?id=2503650
Thanks that's very useful, upwind from the gyre. The temperatures for earlier this week can also be seen there http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?StationID=10076&Month=4&Day=28&Year=2016&timeframe=2
on the 27th it was -7.5 C max and -14.4 min. It could actually have been warmer than that over the sea ice further west and explain the daily pattern in the ice formation.
We can expect that to stop now.

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1263
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 26
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #713 on: April 30, 2016, 10:46:54 AM »
F.Tinoli: no sarcasm!! And I now realize that I missed to post this link from NSIDC: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2015/10/2015-melt-season-in-review/

Now, to the most recent conditions! Our good ole high pressure continues to be in charge for another couple of days ahead. The most interesting is when the temps will start to drop below normal according to DMI graph.

My forecast for the rest of this melt season is that the conditions will continue to be good for ice melting. However, I don't think that we'll see a record low extent by mid-september. The extent will be very low, probably below 4 Mn km2 according to IJIS numbers but not lower than 2012. More likely 3,7-3,9 Mn km2. Volume should be very close to 2012. 2016 should not be followed by another 2013 but instead of two big melt years in 2017-2018 which will push the Arctic to a new regime and further send shock  waves to the rest of the world. More like a repeat of 2010-2012 evolution.

Best, LMV

seaicesailor

  • Guest
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #714 on: April 30, 2016, 12:47:39 PM »
Signs of surface melting over land and ice at Point Hope AK (Chukchi sea). Yesterday. Here refreezing of open sea seems very unlikely.

Lord M Vader:

No sarcasm here either but your jump from short-term forecast to a melt season prediction was quite a leap! Coming from you it'd be very interesting to know the rationale behind your prediction. Feel free about it, obviously.

Carex

  • New ice
  • Posts: 46
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #715 on: April 30, 2016, 02:45:40 PM »

Or probably Arctic Red River?

As for the Red from Winnipeg to Lake Winnipeg, it has been wide open for weeks.  Possibly, you are thinking about the Nelson that runs into Hudson Bay.
[/quote]

Yes, the Arctic Red River.  It has always stuck in my head as the Red River of the North. Maybe London, or Marsh, or Curwood or White referred to it as such in one of their northern romances.  Or more likely that I totally forget about that southern stream that drains the southern high plains.  To those with a more southern mind that great slough through Dakota territory is probably thought of as north.

And yes the main tributaries feeding L. Winnipeg are flowing free, but not flooding this spring, The Red and Winnipeg, even the great western Assiniboine and Saskatchewan are open (although I can't really tell if the channels around Cumberland house are open).

Apologies for confusion caused.

And the Nelson now has good stretches of open water, both at the outlet and down stream of Stephen's Lake

crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2548
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 110
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #716 on: April 30, 2016, 02:59:24 PM »
Not sure if anyone has mentioned Sea Ice for Walrus Outlook (SIWO) 28 April report is out:

https://www.arcus.org/search-program/siwo

Quote
2016 maximum winter extent of Arctic sea ice to be the lowest in the satellite record (1979-present), noting that unusually warm conditions have undoubtedly played an important role. This was due to a combination of factors, including unusually high winter air temperatures and well above normal water temperatures in the northeast Pacific (see January AOOS post), which was in part due to a strong El Niño. With reduced winter ice extent this year, the open ocean is able to take up more heat from the sun during spring, which may then also cause more rapid and extensive ice retreat in the northern Bering and southern Chukchi Seas later in the season.

Quantum

  • New ice
  • Posts: 98
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #717 on: April 30, 2016, 03:13:09 PM »
Can anyone confirm whether this is new sea ice or not?


I'm honestly not sure whether it is or not and I'd appreciate people clarifying.  I'd also be interested to know how you know whether it is or isn't new ice.

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1263
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 26
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #718 on: April 30, 2016, 05:40:24 PM »
Quantum: I think it's refreezing! Look at https://sites.google.com/site/apamsr2/home/pngcby32/ and compare the Beaufort for the last three days.

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4289
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 274
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #719 on: April 30, 2016, 07:43:57 PM »
Can anyone confirm whether this is new sea ice or not?

Have a look on Worldview: http://go.nasa.gov/24saV5Y

Use the controls at the lower left to scroll back and forth a day at a time. There's a large area of thin wispy stuff in that vicinity.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

A-Team

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2448
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 301
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #720 on: April 30, 2016, 09:11:53 PM »
Here is a piece of the current complex motion at the rotation/translation interface, width of animation is 200 km. Rather warm out there right now. The circulation is predicted to shift to counterclockwise rotation by May 4th.
« Last Edit: April 30, 2016, 09:19:23 PM by A-Team »

jai mitchell

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2045
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 84
  • Likes Given: 20
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #721 on: April 30, 2016, 09:25:42 PM »
Beufort (thanks steven!) refreeze of leads on April 28 EOSDIS

Cloud cover since then,

wonder what it will look like when the sky clears?

« Last Edit: April 30, 2016, 11:11:52 PM by jai mitchell »
Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

Steven

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 555
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 133
  • Likes Given: 16
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #722 on: April 30, 2016, 09:39:48 PM »
Berents refreeze of leads on April 28 EOSDIS

Cloud cover since then,

wonder what it will look like when the sky clears?

I think you mean Beaufort (rather than "Berents").  The image you posted seems to be from the region in Beaufort Sea that Peter Ellis linked to in Reply #702 upthread:

http://go.nasa.gov/1Tk5Qoi

Here is an animation for that region, for 21 to 28 April:


werther

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 727
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #723 on: April 30, 2016, 10:40:39 PM »
To Seaicesailor:
Lord M Vader's prediction seems to have been conceived along the same lines as mine posted on 25 April. This COULD BE the "dragon king"- year, but I expect this to be a 'preppers' year. The odds for '17 look stronger. There's still a lot of volume to wreck...
To Quantum:
The swath you mark is in my opinion 60% debris from FIY Amundsen Gulf-ice blown out to the NW and 40% thin refreeze in between...

johnm33

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1292
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 86
  • Likes Given: 43
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #724 on: May 01, 2016, 12:05:39 AM »
Quantum if you need more convincing


A-Team

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2448
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 301
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #725 on: May 01, 2016, 01:25:20 AM »
Whoa ... new Beaufort cracks extended several hundred km into the central icepack today. The middle 2 images are worth a click to view at full size (thin cracks don't display well at 700 pixel forum width). The bottom shows a brittle shear zone.

The reason for these new cracks? The Beaufort Gyre this year is slightly egg-shaped. The long axis points to the pole (moe or less). An elongate body cannot rotate freely -- it comes up against the central ice pack which is immobilized against the shore.

Earlier in the week, the Gyre was fracturing in such a way as to make a circle at the south end of the ellipse. A circle is free to rotate regardless of outside ice. However Gyre ice poleward of this circle was still had considerable angular momentum. This stress to the north was taken up by the central ice pack but it became too much at some point on April 30th.

Several small cracks appeared at high latitude but a point of weakness was found where we see the rapidly widening crack initiate in the animation of the next post. The scale is such that this crack is already 1-2 km wide at its mouth.

What happens tomorrow? More of the same, the wind pattern doesn't become unfavorable until May 4th.

What does it mean? It depends on what weather comes next. We have seen similar crack networks develop in past years. This timing this year, in terms of insolation and temperature, is unfavorable for the ice. However follow-on weather makes all the difference ... and that is not foreseeable very far out.
« Last Edit: May 01, 2016, 04:48:41 AM by A-Team »

A-Team

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2448
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 301
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #726 on: May 01, 2016, 02:06:34 AM »
Here is the run-up to the 30 Apr 16 event at 250 m resolution. These cracks open and close like lightening strikes on a scale of single days. The speed of propagation is hard to pin down given once a day imaging. The locator map is provided in #725.
« Last Edit: May 14, 2016, 03:36:01 PM by A-Team »

oren

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4533
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 911
  • Likes Given: 1305
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #727 on: May 01, 2016, 06:51:31 AM »
Here is the run-up to the 30 Apr 16 event at 250 m resolution. These cracks open and close like lightening strikes on a scale of single days. The speed of propagation is hard to pin down given once a day imaging. The locator map is provided in #755.

Amazing. Almost looks like a glitch.

Tensor

  • New ice
  • Posts: 73
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #728 on: May 01, 2016, 08:07:17 AM »
Here is the run-up to the 30 Apr 16 event at 250 m resolution. These cracks open and close like lightening strikes on a scale of single days. The speed of propagation is hard to pin down given once a day imaging. The locator map is provided in #755.

I was fascinated by the movement, of the main mass, to the top right of the picture, after the crack happens, for some reason. That's a lot of Ice to be moving. 
Paid Insane Murdoch Drone

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3024
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 190
  • Likes Given: 172
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #729 on: May 01, 2016, 09:16:05 AM »
Whoa ...
Something to add to your list of things that make you sit up and take notice in the morning; A-Team going "Whoa".

Now looking at it, I find myself more concerned about the shear zones.  They are more indicative of widespread weakness in the ice.
This space for Rent.

Pi26

  • New ice
  • Posts: 41
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #730 on: May 01, 2016, 09:29:04 AM »
Then every km2 sea ice as 1000 pieces gets factor 1.2 to 1.5 more surface against water. Together with moving (also more transfer) averaged energy transfer and thereby melting rates soon could be factor 1.5 - even at factor 1.15 overall most arctic sea ice goes before melt season ends?
« Last Edit: May 01, 2016, 10:10:57 AM by Pi26 »

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1507
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 140
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #731 on: May 01, 2016, 10:02:00 AM »





Incredible





I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

werther

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 727
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #732 on: May 01, 2016, 10:10:13 AM »
This is a compilation of the for MODIS tiles around the North Pole. It’s from 29 April.



Within the red 50 km diameter circle there are already a lot of visible stress leads. My conclusion is that there’s less snow cover than usual. The movement of the sea ice is extremely visible considering it is only end of April.
It makes me wonder if a stretch of the safe-icepack pattern I got used to since I started sampling MODIS (around 2009) will be visible this summer.

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1263
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 26
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #733 on: May 01, 2016, 11:07:46 AM »
Seaicesailor: Werther is quite correct in his analysis of my thinking. I shall evolve it later though! :)

DavidR

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 731
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 30
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #734 on: May 01, 2016, 12:07:02 PM »
Seaicesailor: Werther is quite correct in his analysis of my thinking. I shall evolve it later though! :)
You  guys sound like a Farmer telling  us it always rains after a drought.

We are in the middle of the biggest heating event in the records. The NH  temperatures are shattering records, half a degree above the previous records . It won't stop till September. The only thing that  makes this year a "preppers" year is that  next  year will be much worse for the ice, probably  ice free.

This year will  be bad enough.
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

6roucho

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 296
  • Finance geek
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #735 on: May 01, 2016, 01:00:20 PM »
Seaicesailor: Werther is quite correct in his analysis of my thinking. I shall evolve it later though! :)
You  guys sound like a Farmer telling  us it always rains after a drought.

We are in the middle of the biggest heating event in the records. The NH  temperatures are shattering records, half a degree above the previous records . It won't stop till September. The only thing that  makes this year a "preppers" year is that  next  year will be much worse for the ice, probably  ice free.

This year will  be bad enough.
Another thing to consider is that next year's winter heating event might be worse than this year's. In some respects that would be more alarming than becoming ice free in the summer.

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1507
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 140
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #736 on: May 01, 2016, 02:06:57 PM »
A mid to late May to early to mid June Western CAB, Beaufort, Chuchki, and ESS ridge could result in a massive polyanna by July 1-10 between 75-80N in the Pacific side basin.

That is a ridiculous amount of 1.25M and thinner ice. 

And it's really far North.

As soon as melt ponds form and snow is melted off. Being such thin FYI bottom ice melt will explode.

Bottom melt could start as early as June 1st. 

In the 1950s to 1980s bottom ice melt didn't get going until August and even then it was pathetic.

Last summer bottom ice melt was kicking ass






I apologize but this is incredibly exciting.

We are running through new territory.  This isn't some bogus Hudson bay or SOO early melt out.

The Beaufort, Baffin, Barents, Bering, and soon to be Kara and Chukchi are losing ice at an unprecedented rate for this time of year. 

Insitu melt is weak but no melt/no thickening is real add that to endless cyclonic dipole pushing ice into the fram, Barents, and NATL and it gets shredded while new open water in the basin sees no to very thin new ice.

This means we currently have a record area of dark ocean dlsucking up energy.

This is the catalyst for a mid Summer epic thrust of heat directly into the Southern CAB.

« Last Edit: May 01, 2016, 02:18:50 PM by Frivolousz21 »
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

AmbiValent

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 136
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #737 on: May 01, 2016, 02:19:49 PM »
Plus some of the thickest ice is incredibly exiting right through Fram Strait.
Bright ice, how can you crack and fail? How can the ice that seemed so mighty suddenly seem so frail?

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #738 on: May 01, 2016, 02:38:13 PM »

Quote
Plus some of the thickest ice is incredibly exiting right through Fram Strait.

I think that this is something to watch closely this year for two reasons:  (1)  The only thick ice left is that along the northern coast of the Canadian Archipelago, and (2) it looks like that warm Atlantic waters never really ended last fall....and have caused melting to occur EARLIER this year "inside" of Svalbard.

The Fram has the potential to transport quite a bit more ice this year....  With the Beaufort breaking up early...and Fram providing a warmer more "fluid" push down through the strait....that could lead to an interesting season indeed...


FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

oren

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4533
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 911
  • Likes Given: 1305
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #739 on: May 01, 2016, 02:44:36 PM »
Friv thank you for saying it so well.
The most amazing thing when looking at 2014 and 2015 is that the differences are in the heartland of the pack, inside the basin.

A-Team

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2448
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 301
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #740 on: May 01, 2016, 03:11:41 PM »
The May 1st Aqua won't be fully loaded for another 12 hours but a portion of it is available now. The motion over the last ten days has been consistent in an erratic kind of way in the 80º 150ºW region. The animation is rotated -15º from WorldView so that the poleward 150th meridian is horizontal.

discourage Fram export. The animated contour map of wind power at bottom shows the rapid nature of change at 3 hour intervals (and is a little jumpy because nullschool does not have data for all incremented times).
« Last Edit: May 01, 2016, 04:14:46 PM by A-Team »

Greenbelt

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 140
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 23
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #741 on: May 01, 2016, 04:34:11 PM »
Forecast for a few days hence looks like a big high right over the central Arctic



epiphyte

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 383
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 22
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #742 on: May 01, 2016, 05:56:09 PM »
Quote from: Frivolousz21 link=topic=1493.msg75267#msg75267 date=1462104417

 [
could result in a massive polyanna ...


Interesting word use there, Friv! I was wondering what you were going to do when you ran out of superlatives.

...but now? ... such deftly-constructed reflexive auto-irony :)  Outstanding!

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1507
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 140
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #743 on: May 01, 2016, 06:52:03 PM »
Forecast for a few days hence looks like a big high right over the central Arctic




Insolation is reaching a point of busting down the cold pool over the arctic region by overwhelming the snow albedo effect.


Right now the entire arctic basin is mostly dry snow. 

With an albedo ranging from .70 to .80(+/-.03 to .05) even on a clear day with 350w/m2 of down welling insolation even 400+ as we get into May.   Three majority of the suns heat is being reflected back.

However even without surface melt. The sun will break the snow flakes down.  The surface will slowly moisten up and eventually a break through will happen where the top layer of the snow or bare ice will get wet. 

And if the pattern continues surface melt will quickly erupt into shallow very shallow melt puddles and with that albedo will drop from .7 to .8 down to .40 to .55(+/-.60).

All of a sudden solar energy on a clear day in mid to late May is doubled or even tripled in terms of surface absorbtion.

Which means OLR will go up a ton and of course general long wave radiation will also increase. 


As this happens we can expect the models to start showing major ridging over the Pacific side.




The CAA is extremely vital to the fate of the Southern Cab and GIS. 

Since roughly half of it is land once the snow melts during sunny ridging or WAA events the land areas will dry out and warm  up dramatically.


 Under the right circumstances localized inversions along the shore line will get broken and the solar driven warm air will flow over the ice sheet and accelerate melt.

And since the CAA ice is land fast most of the summer large melt lakes miles long/wide form and likely dramatically lower albedo.

This special warming is what allows 3-5M ice in the CAA to melt out in one summer.

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Ninebelowzero

  • New ice
  • Posts: 86
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #744 on: May 01, 2016, 07:15:36 PM »
Is anyone currently doing research on modelling heat transfer to the Arctic by the jetstream meander?


seaicesailor

  • Guest
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #745 on: May 01, 2016, 07:43:54 PM »
Forecast for a few days hence looks like a big high right over the central Arctic


Goes without saying I am not an expert in meteorology. But recalling from past years, these big, but low-gradient HP do not harm much the ice. This one in particular brings much weaker winds from continents and CR predicts clear conditions only over the central region. It comes with a general cooling of the CAB (some peripheral areas warm up though).

Werther surely remembers 2014 persistent cold highs in June and July that brought fog over the melting/sublimating ice and actually protected it from sun. An unexpected negative feedback no scientist had spoken of before (as far as I remember, was a lurker then). Where funny kinds of UFO-like mini-lows were creating strange circular shapes visible in MODIS as they were cuttting thru the mist. :) Actually it was fun. Cannot find the posts with the pics, they were cool! (In all senses of the word)

PS. In any case, the ice detachment from the Northwest Passage that HYCOM predicts can have quite an impact!

ChrisReynolds

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1714
    • View Profile
    • Dosbat
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #746 on: May 01, 2016, 07:46:45 PM »
I'll just relay a reply I posted over on my blog....

Quote
Dreessen, David,

I am becoming much more optimistic about the prospects for a really exciting year in the Arctic Ocean.

Beaufort may prove critical. ASCAT shows some export over winter, so the crash I'll be discussing in my next post may well stall (a bit). Given ice state in Beaufort there is a reasonable expectation (IMO) of large tracts of open water early in the melt season under high insolation. From previous work for the whole Arctic, current ice thickness in Beaufort (~1.6m now) is well within the range of seasonal thinning - i.e. near 100% open water formation efficiency.

Under the Arctic Dipole (AD) regime of post 2007 summers the June/July average pressure shows a strong Beaufort High. This should drive water warmed in early season open ocean in Beaufort towards Chukchi and under the main pack. What goes towards Chukchi may then be entrained under the AD and driven into the East Siberian Sea. Ekman pumping may be expected to drive net flow to the right of the wind direction through the entire ocean column, but surface warming will be more in line with the wind flow.

The end result being that early inroads into the very thin poor ice state in Beaufort may then assist melt in the thicker (more normal) ice state in the East Siberian and Chukchi seas. That is before we get to considering the import of Pacific water through Bering due to the AD. The ENSO warmed tail from the tropics along the US/Canada East Coast may be entailed into Bering flow.

.....

In 2012 nothing at the start of the season justified the outcome. I haven't seen a year more primed to large losses than this year (noting that I have not carried out a forensic study of all years since 1979).

It's early to be sure, but I think we're in for a really exciting melt season.  8)

pearscot

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 149
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 44
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #747 on: May 01, 2016, 07:47:03 PM »
Is anyone currently doing research on modelling heat transfer to the Arctic by the jetstream meander?

You bring up a good point. I know the jetstream meanders more, meaning large dips and even small sections being 'cut off.'  Much of what's been thought is that this is due to less of a temperature differentiation between the arctic and equatorial latitudes. In addition, the jet stream is slowing as a result (like a rubber band loosening).  I think that you are correct in saying that massive, more stable blocking high patterns allow for greater amounts of warm air to travel closer to the arctic facilitated by an ever increasing cosineal pattern. Moreover, I think changes in ocean current (see cold blob) are also affecting heat transfer to the arctic both in the ocean and atmosphere.
pls!

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4289
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 274
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #748 on: May 01, 2016, 07:48:54 PM »
My Arctic Mayday message to the Twittosphere:

https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/726744699189473280

Any and all "Retweets" welcome!

Here's the gist of it:

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

theoldinsane

  • New ice
  • Posts: 66
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #749 on: May 01, 2016, 07:56:57 PM »
Interesting word use there, Friv! I was wondering what you were going to do when you ran out of superlatives.

Maybe Friv sometimes exaggerating things, but there are a lot of knowledge behind his writings. I love it.