Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: The 2016 melting season  (Read 1732076 times)

bbr2314

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1817
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 164
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #900 on: May 06, 2016, 10:30:02 PM »
Too impatient to wait for full day's satellite load. Compare May 1 vs May 6. The cracks from the Beaufort mess have now reached the cracks from the ATL side. Insane!

« Last Edit: May 07, 2016, 12:06:42 AM by bbr2314 »

bbr2314

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1817
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 164
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #901 on: May 06, 2016, 10:41:47 PM »
yikes



the cracks turn into gaping fissures expanding all across the CAB, also note development near Bering Strait





wonder if this is the albedo feedback from open water already kicking in?

wow @ Beaufort!!!


Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4756
  • Stay Home, Save Lives
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 511
  • Likes Given: 44
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #902 on: May 06, 2016, 11:17:01 PM »
The flow into the Mackenzie Delta is kicking in, on approximately the same trajectory as last year:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-regional-graphs/beaufort-sea-ice-graphs/#Mackenzie-Flow
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

RoxTheGeologist

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 524
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 156
  • Likes Given: 127
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #903 on: May 06, 2016, 11:47:43 PM »
Too impatient to wait for full day's satellite load. Compare May 1 vs May 6. The cracks from the Beaufort mess have now reached the cracks from the ATL side. Insane!


And recent cracks seem to extend from the Beaufort west, joining those around Wrangle Island across the Chukchi Sea and then across the Laptev sea. Pretty much circling the whole of the CAB from 50° West to 150°E. 
« Last Edit: May 07, 2016, 01:21:37 AM by RoxTheGeologist »

jai mitchell

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2078
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 116
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #904 on: May 07, 2016, 12:42:14 AM »
 :(
Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7776
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 1143
  • Likes Given: 537
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #905 on: May 07, 2016, 01:06:42 AM »
I was so focused on the Beaufort that I didn't notice that sea ice extent in the Greenland Sea is extremely low. Very counter-intuitive as the intense Beaufort Gyre of the past 4 weeks should've kept it stable at the very least, if not as high as 2012. Must be some serious ocean heat flux going on on the Atlantic side of the Arctic.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3256
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 535
  • Likes Given: 208
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #906 on: May 07, 2016, 02:07:33 AM »
I was so focused on the Beaufort that I didn't notice that sea ice extent in the Greenland Sea is extremely low. Very counter-intuitive as the intense Beaufort Gyre of the past 4 weeks should've kept it stable at the very least, if not as high as 2012. Must be some serious ocean heat flux going on on the Atlantic side of the Arctic.

Just look at the SST's around southern Greenland and west and north west of Svalbard, Neven.  There's the ready answer for you.  We're making a big deal about the Beaufort right now (which it is), but are somewhat distracted from the really disturbing heat at high latitude on the Atlantic side, which is about to butcher the remaining ice in the Barents (except for the "new" ice being shoved into it), the Kara and the Greenland sea.  Ice off of Labrador and in Baffin bay are going to see some bad times as well.  It should all add up to an abrupt plummet a bit later in the month.
This space for Rent.

LRC1962

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 436
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 8
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #907 on: May 07, 2016, 05:06:44 AM »
I was so focused on the Beaufort that I didn't notice that sea ice extent in the Greenland Sea is extremely low. Very counter-intuitive as the intense Beaufort Gyre of the past 4 weeks should've kept it stable at the very least, if not as high as 2012. Must be some serious ocean heat flux going on on the Atlantic side of the Arctic.
Could also be a combination that also includes Fram export that is keeping up with the imports from the gyre and that the ice is so thin that as soon as it hits slightly warm water it vanishes.
This could be also an early sign that the melt this year could be very large and that a cold summer may not help hold the ice in.
"All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed; Second,  it is violently opposed; and Third, it is accepted as self-evident."
       - Arthur Schopenhauer

jai mitchell

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2078
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 116
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #908 on: May 07, 2016, 08:02:20 AM »
The Pacific North American Index looks to be turning negative in coming days, this should provide increased water vapor in lower altitudes of the arctic, leading to cooler temperatures and suppressed melt during this early spring.  Not sure if it will last, certainly not as negative as it was during the incredibly cold 2014 spring.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna_index_ensm.shtml
Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

Andreas T

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1146
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 18
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #909 on: May 07, 2016, 09:04:02 AM »
I was so focused on the Beaufort that I didn't notice that sea ice extent in the Greenland Sea is extremely low. Very counter-intuitive as the intense Beaufort Gyre of the past 4 weeks should've kept it stable at the very least, if not as high as 2012. Must be some serious ocean heat flux going on on the Atlantic side of the Arctic.
Could also be a combination that also includes Fram export that is keeping up with the imports from the gyre and that the ice is so thin that as soon as it hits slightly warm water it vanishes.
This could be also an early sign that the melt this year could be very large and that a cold summer may not help hold the ice in.
Export of ice from the Greenland sea is of course in the form of liquid water ;), but you are right about the balance of inflow and outflow. What has changed since the end of April is not a sudden increase in melting, warm water has been there already, it is the amount of ice entering though Fram strait. Taking the trouble to look at floe movement which is not too difficult, usually there are identifiable floes seen there, it shows that movement south has been less since end of April than it has been through March and April (would need to do a lot more work to quantify that)
25. 4. and 6.5. are shown


werther

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 747
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 31
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #910 on: May 07, 2016, 09:48:41 AM »
Ice in Vilkitsky Strait is moving today. The last part of fast-ice against Taymir/Severnaya Zemlya is breaking from the shores and moving SW.

Espen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3341
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 230
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #911 on: May 07, 2016, 10:05:26 AM »
The Beaufort Gyre almost reaching into the Fram Strait district:
Have a ice day!

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6530
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2419
  • Likes Given: 2103
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #912 on: May 07, 2016, 10:31:15 AM »
I was so focused on the Beaufort that I didn't notice that sea ice extent in the Greenland Sea is extremely low. Very counter-intuitive as the intense Beaufort Gyre of the past 4 weeks should've kept it stable at the very least, if not as high as 2012. Must be some serious ocean heat flux going on on the Atlantic side of the Arctic.

Good point Neven. I noticed that too. As far as I know typically low Greenland Sea extent means higher extent overall, as it means low export. However this year it's possible that the reason is high melt rates in the Greenland Sea, so even lower extent than normal. Time will tell.

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7776
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 1143
  • Likes Given: 537
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #913 on: May 07, 2016, 10:40:28 AM »
Hi Neven, first time commenter here.  Thanks for all your excellent blogging and educating.  Was wondering if you could offer a bit more illumination on how an intense Beaufort Gyre keeps ice in the Greenland Sea stable at the very least?

Hi, Ice Shieldz, and welcome (released your profile, so you can comment freely now).

I think the question is answered in the comments below yours. A strong Beaufort Gyre moves ice towards the Atlantic, so in theory, sea ice extent/area in the Greenland Sea should go up, or at least stay stable. Except when waters are so 'warm' there that the transported ice melts immediately. In that case sea ice extent/area in the Greenland Sea goes down.

That's what we seem to be seeing. As you can see, it's very early for the time of year for SIE to go down.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7776
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 1143
  • Likes Given: 537
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #914 on: May 07, 2016, 10:43:14 AM »

Just look at the SST's around southern Greenland and west and north west of Svalbard, Neven.  There's the ready answer for you.

That SST map (or the one with anomalies) is not detailed enough for me. I've been badgering people at the DMI for weeks now to get their SST anomaly map back up, but to no avail. They're switching to some new map that includes ice temperatures. Why now? They had all winter to do it...  :( :'(

I need that SST anomaly map for my updates, so that I can compare it to those from previous years. Never change a winning map!
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

P-maker

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 301
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 52
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #915 on: May 07, 2016, 11:01:29 AM »
Neven,

Quote
"Why now?

New Public Management, you know (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_public_management ):

paying customers come before you, the most honourable member of the public

Meirion

  • New ice
  • Posts: 59
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #916 on: May 07, 2016, 11:56:40 AM »
CCI suggesting big melt in Beaufort & Chukchi over next week

Quantum

  • New ice
  • Posts: 99
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #917 on: May 07, 2016, 06:33:08 PM »
I think the only optimism is that the HP projected to form over Alaska and bring the warm conditions has been downgraded. I've noticed that NWP are notoriously bad for the arctic, compared to their performance in the mid latitudes (which is what I'm used to), there is still time for this to all change with relatively minor adjustments in the pattern. Anyway we can see this extreme meridonal pattern on the GFS 12Z (I quite like the 4 obvious lobes of cold air):

The same pattern causes yet another cold plunge for the UK at the end of this week, this year has already been quite unusual in bringing late season snowfall. Anyway I'm skeptical it will be as extreme as the GFS is predicting, I think its more likely it will be tempered somewhat and we will see something more like the ECM which predicts a more transient warm spell for the pacific Atlantic.

Csnavywx

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 548
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 71
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #918 on: May 07, 2016, 07:10:09 PM »
dt/dprogs certainly don't show any backing off of the ridge from a few days ago, except perhaps on the GFS about 5 days ago. Both the EC and GFS pretty much had the pattern nailed at about 240+ hours out, which is phenomenally good for a deterministic prog.

On that note the EPS and GEFS show a continuation of the ridging over AK and nosing up from Iceland/Greenland, maintaining a hostile environment for ice survival.

Robert Greer

  • New ice
  • Posts: 9
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #919 on: May 07, 2016, 08:29:53 PM »
Canada's Public Safety Minister is saying the Fort McMurray fire could double over the weekend due to dry conditions. Is there cause to worry that soot from the fire could hit the sea ice, lower albedo, and accelerate this year's melt?

plinius

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 403
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #920 on: May 07, 2016, 09:17:10 PM »
Canada's Public Safety Minister is saying the Fort McMurray fire could double over the weekend due to dry conditions. Is there cause to worry that soot from the fire could hit the sea ice, lower albedo, and accelerate this year's melt?


blowing towards Hudson. And anyway, I suppose most would rain down before reaching the arctic basin.

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=geographic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor%28hidden%29,MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor%28hidden%29,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels%28hidden%29,Reference_Features%28hidden%29,Coastlines&t=2016-05-06&v=-112.48045110738794,55.79451643818883,-109.55369329488794,57.34139143818883

jai mitchell

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2078
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 116
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #921 on: May 07, 2016, 11:03:21 PM »
This image is the junction of the furthest lead originating from Beaufort Sea through the CAB.  The point of intersection is where the crack has joined with the portion of the cab that is currently sliding (and breaking up as it does) toward the fram)

It is unclear to me how this fissure extending accross the entirety of solid ice into the (effective) other side will impact future rates of ice loss.  I suspect that this point will become a measure of significance in future breakup years.

It is loosely defined as the point of intersection between a fissure originating from the pacific side of the arctic ice cap to another that originates from the Fram Strait (or is otherwise moving directionally to the Atlantic side but determined by a break or fissure). 

I would like to suggest that this point of intersection, which I expect will occur in future melt years, be called "Corner Alpha".

I expect that the location and the date of this artefact's appearance will be a useful metric in future years.  Especially if it appears to accelerate CAB disassociation with ice propagation accelerating from this point in both directions away from the intersection.

So far it appears to only be accelerating toward the Beaufort so the amount of reduced structural resistance to flow may be (currently) insignificant compared to the greater ice sheet dynamics.

We shall see.

Corner Alpha
Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

werther

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 747
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 31
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #922 on: May 07, 2016, 11:25:29 PM »
This would be a remarkable development in an already worrying Arctic Theatre:



ECMWF accompanies GFS for the next few days, at least. Warmth pumping in over Alaska between a high over N Canada and lows over the Chukchen Peninsula.

Will produce +20dC in Inuvik soon.

werther

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 747
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 31
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #923 on: May 07, 2016, 11:40:22 PM »
Another sign of pushing warmth; the Mackenzie River has completely broken loose. It is slashing through Great Slave Lake as if there's no ice at all (MODIS today).

Timothy Astin

  • New ice
  • Posts: 50
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #924 on: May 08, 2016, 12:23:17 AM »
Picking up Wether's observation, at Strong Point on the Mackenzie River (first hydrographic station downstream of Great Slave Lake) the breakthrough in 2015 took place over two days, April 30th to May 2nd. This year the breakthrough started on May 2nd and completed on May 4th.

The online Canadian Hydrographic data used by Jim Hunt (e.g. http://wateroffice.ec.gc.ca/google_map/google_map_e.html?searchBy=p&province=NT&doSearch=Go) is a fascinating resource if you like to follow the snow melt in Canada.

Jim Hunt reported on Arctic Red River (post above) which is currently 4-5 days into the upswing of the flood stage, and should take about another 10 days to reach peak discharge into the delta. The Mackenzie River discharge crossed 10000 m3/s on May 7 (today) in both 2015 and 2016.

The Northwest Territories was characterised by an early heatwave in 2015, and the 2016 river discharges show that 2016 so far is tracking the 2015 pattern very closely.

Laurent

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2538
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 35
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #925 on: May 08, 2016, 01:01:03 AM »
Holy cow, the whole Arctic ice is crashing !!! Look at that from 1st of May to 7th.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3256
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 535
  • Likes Given: 208
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #926 on: May 08, 2016, 01:43:12 AM »
This would be a remarkable development in an already worrying Arctic Theatre:



ECMWF accompanies GFS for the next few days, at least. Warmth pumping in over Alaska between a high over N Canada and lows over the Chukchen Peninsula.

Will produce +20dC in Inuvik soon.
It's starting to look a bit more solid.  cci/ecmwf has a surge of heat starting into the Chukchi and Beaufort in about 72 hours.  If it plays out as forecast, we may see temperatures of 2-5C spreading across much of those regions, and positively baking the remaining snow cover along the coast.
This space for Rent.

DavidR

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 736
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 33
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #927 on: May 08, 2016, 06:57:20 AM »
Holy cow, the whole Arctic ice is crashing !!! Look at that from 1st of May to 7th.
Worldview appears to be showing cracking appearing between Wrangel Island and The New Siberian Islands that isn't evident in previous images for May or June. This suggests the entire central area from the North Pole to the Pacific is starting to move in an unprecedented fashion.  This area is predicted to be extremely warm over the next  week so it  will be worth watching how this pans out.
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6530
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2419
  • Likes Given: 2103
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #928 on: May 08, 2016, 07:14:06 AM »
Scary. One good weather pattern and the whole big mess is exported down the Fram.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3256
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 535
  • Likes Given: 208
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #929 on: May 08, 2016, 08:05:08 AM »
Holy cow, the whole Arctic ice is crashing !!! Look at that from 1st of May to 7th.
Worldview appears to be showing cracking appearing between Wrangel Island and The New Siberian Islands that isn't evident in previous images for May or June. This suggests the entire central area from the North Pole to the Pacific is starting to move in an unprecedented fashion.  This area is predicted to be extremely warm over the next  week so it  will be worth watching how this pans out.
The ice is already starting unreasonably warm for the season.  That will greatly affect it's structural strength.  The additional heat even if not melting much will only make things worse.
This space for Rent.

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7776
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 1143
  • Likes Given: 537
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #930 on: May 08, 2016, 09:42:08 AM »
I'm going to be off for a week, but will probably/hopefully be able to connect to the Internet. Don't break the Forum, please.  ;)
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Andreas T

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1146
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 18
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #931 on: May 08, 2016, 10:18:19 AM »
Holy cow, the whole Arctic ice is crashing !!! Look at that from 1st of May to 7th.
Worldview appears to be showing cracking appearing between Wrangel Island and The New Siberian Islands that isn't evident in previous images for May or June. This suggests the entire central area from the North Pole to the Pacific is starting to move in an unprecedented fashion.  This area is predicted to be extremely warm over the next  week so it  will be worth watching how this pans out.
when you say unprecedented which other years have you compared? The area you mention west of Wrangel island was more broken up in 2014 and 2015  I would say 2013 too. Worldview has AMSRE images for sept 2002 to sept 2011.
There were breaks around Wrangel island earlier his year too.
Why is there this focus on cracks in the ice? OK its fun to spot cracks and be the first to shout "OMG have you seen the size of this". Whether this is significant is dependent on weather as the season develops.
I agree that it will be interesting to see how the ice responds to the warm air coming in next week. Early melt is a precondition for large reduction of ice volume later on. Movement will matter too but I doubt that the ice was ever a solid mass which was unable to move when wind pushed it one way or another.

DavidR

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 736
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 33
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #932 on: May 08, 2016, 10:33:34 AM »
Worldview appears to be showing cracking appearing between Wrangel Island and The New Siberian Islands that isn't evident in previous images for May or June. This suggests the entire central area from the North Pole to the Pacific is starting to move in an unprecedented fashion.  This area is predicted to be extremely warm over the next  week so it  will be worth watching how this pans out.
when you say unprecedented which other years have you compared? The area you mention west of Wrangel island was more broken up in 2014 and 2015  I would say 2013 too. Worldview has AMSRE images for sept 2002 to sept 2011.
There were breaks around Wrangel island earlier his year too.
Why is there this focus on cracks in the ice? OK its fun to spot cracks and be the first to shout
The interesting thing about these cracks, is that combined with the cracks in Beaufort that head to wards the North Pole they contribute towards a semi circle of cracking from Beaufort to the Islands. This suggests a different form of breakup than that between the islands and the coast  in recent years.

The impression is of a central body ice that is starting to rotate much  like the Beaufort Gyre but  covering the entire area to the pole.  It  may  be nothing but it's worth watching, particularly  in a year that  is so  clearly  going to  be exceptional. .

Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

Andreas T

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1146
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 18
  • Likes Given: 4

Laurent

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2538
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 35
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #934 on: May 08, 2016, 12:45:12 PM »
Nothing compared ! In the past years, there was a lot of thick ice anchored to the Canadian archipelago, nearly everything did melt last year, so now we have a new situation where the whole Arctic is able to be detached from that main support. It is now loose and thus can rotate, be churned, take the full effect of waves, etc...

That is due to the Atlantic being in the Arctic, in the past the Arctic was sent and "maintained" between Svalbard and Greenland. Now that cannot happened anymore and we are seeing the consequences. Enjoy the show it is unprecedented.

This is Hycom prediction for the next days.
« Last Edit: May 08, 2016, 12:57:31 PM by Laurent »

slow wing

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 819
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 156
  • Likes Given: 506
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #935 on: May 08, 2016, 01:34:38 PM »
Neven's ice concentration map page is an excellent reference for comparing the ice extents and distributions year-to-year on any given day. Here are the maps for 7 May for every year from 2005 to 2016:
https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/concentration-maps/sic0507

As Andreas said, 2008 was the closest for ice loss in the Beaufort. However, 2016 is still ahead of 2008 in that regard.

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3379
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 49
  • Likes Given: 34
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #936 on: May 08, 2016, 02:46:59 PM »
Quote
Neven's ice concentration map page is an excellent reference for comparing the ice extents and distributions year-to-year on any given day.

And if you look at May 7 of 2016 vs 2015 vs 2012......they show that this years ice is ahead in almost every part of Arctic:  Bering Strait.....Beaufort Sea along Alaska's northern coast and Canada's northeastern coast.....Baffin Bay.....Hudson Bay.....central Russian coast....inside Svalbard....etc..

The able is now set.....will the guests arrive?
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

DavidR

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 736
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 33
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #937 on: May 08, 2016, 02:51:02 PM »
Quote
Neven's ice concentration map page is an excellent reference for comparing the ice extents and distributions year-to-year on any given day.

And if you look at May 7 of 2016 vs 2015 vs 2012......they show that this years ice is ahead in almost every part of Arctic:  Bering Strait.....Beaufort Sea along Alaska's northern coast and Canada's northeastern coast.....Baffin Bay.....Hudson Bay.....central Russian coast....inside Svalbard....etc..

The Table is now set.....will the guests arrive?
The question is: "What could keep them away?"
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3379
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 49
  • Likes Given: 34
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #938 on: May 08, 2016, 03:09:33 PM »
Quote
The question is: "What could keep them away?"

There is ALWAYS a chance of that.  BUT.....if I were a betting man...:

1)  Odds of breaking the 2012 low:  85%
2)  Odds of breaking the 2012 by more than 15%:  50%
3)  Odds of breaking the 2012 by more than 30%:  20%

Keep in mind that 2 million square kilometers left at the end of the season would be a 41% beatdown of the old record low.  And there was a "fat tail" that hung out into the Beaufort Sea that year......and the Beaufort is getting killed right now, so that fat tail may be gone this year.

Again....2 million is "doable"....still not likely or probable....but doable.  We continue to head into uncharted waters this year, and in coming years.  We are only at the beginning of "mind boggling" things that will happen on all 3 ice sheets over the coming 5 - 10 years.




FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

themgt

  • New ice
  • Posts: 15
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #939 on: May 08, 2016, 04:13:44 PM »
I doubt anyone can make a confident prediction about the end-state of melt in such an unprecedented situation. But my layman's mind always comes back to the way ice cubes melt in a cup of water, as Ernest Hemingway said of going bankrupt: "Gradually, then suddenly"

Even without this intuition, '07/12 appear to show the way the "floor falls out" in extreme melt years. That melt becomes self-reinforcing.

To say it another way: having now spent weeks 800,000km2 below 2012, the likelihood is rapidly increasing that the minimum will be at least 800,000km2 below 2012.

seaicesailor

  • Guest
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #940 on: May 08, 2016, 04:24:55 PM »
2008 is worth having a look at for comparison https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367%28hidden%29,VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor%28hidden%29,MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor%28hidden%29,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Coastlines,AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Brightness_Temp_89H,Graticule,AMSR2_Sea_Ice_Concentration_12km%28hidden%29,AMSR2_Sea_Ice_Brightness_Temp_6km_89H%28hidden%29,MODIS_Terra_Brightness_Temp_Band31_Night%28hidden,palette=rainbow_1,min=220.5,max=294.5,squash%29,MODIS_Terra_Brightness_Temp_Band31_Day%28hidden,palette=rainbow_1,min=220.5,max=298.3,squash%29&t=2008-05-14&v=-3816930.8726563305,-747017.9026090829,1024541.1273436695,1772022.0973909171
there are no images in visible frequencies on worldview though.
Of course there are differences but the areas of open water in Beaufort and Chuckchi around 15th May are impressive and there is a lead opening north of the arctic archipelago.
The arctic needs to be lucky this year to avoid a big drop but that isn't impossible.

That was a great comparison and I couldn't agree more.

Now to start with, (downgraded) Pacific side heat wave brings some rain too. That is very bad for the snow, but expect a lot of cloudiness as well. That is good.
Stormy weather may come even with snow in some places according to the ccr maps.
And Russian side is going to get much colder.

Andreas T

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1146
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 18
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #941 on: May 08, 2016, 04:58:26 PM »
[quote author=seaicesailor link=topic=1493.msg75946#msg75946 date=1462717495

.....

Now to start with, (downgraded) Pacific side heat wave brings some rain too. That is very bad for the snow, but expect a lot of cloudiness as well. That is good.
Stormy weather may come even with snow in some places according to the ccr maps.
And Russian side is going to get much colder.
[/quote]
if rain falls on snow this would make it more transparent to incoming shortwave (sunlight) even without melting it, helping to warm the ice beneath towards its eventual melting point. Clouds if they come with warmer air are bad for the snow because of their downward IR radiation which is absorbed by snow more than the shortwave.
Chris Reynolds posted this some time ago
a  recent discussion in the melting season thread brought a number of interesting sources on radiative balance in the arctic
one is free to view here: http://faculty.atmos.und.edu/dong/papers/10.1007_s00382-013-1920-8.pdf
another shown in Chris' comment below
.......

Screen 2010, "The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification" figure 3 shows the impact of cloud cover changes from 1989 to 2008 in ERA. They find that cloud cover changes over the Arctic are largely a cooling influence.


....

Summer (panel c) shows that clear sky (dotted lines) mean net surface radiation is higher than cloudy, except for north of 80 degN, where ice/ocean albedo feedback does not apply. This has long puzzled me, but it seems it is explainable by the issue raised by K Largo. Over the areas showing the strongest albedo feedback cloudy skies reduce the absorption of insolation, but over areas of high albedo in summer the infrared effect from clouds largely offsets any change in insolation.

.......

Further down from the abstract it is noted that: "Only in midsummer when the sun was highest in the sky did ]CFSW/]Ac surpass ]CFLW/]Ac , indicating that increases in summer cloudiness would cool the surface." This is because the shortwave cooling is dependent upon angle of incidence. SHEBA covered only a region of the Arctic Ocean in Beaufort/Chukchi in over one year. Further north towards the pole solar incidence angles will be lower, and the dominance of SW should be for a lesser part of the year.

SHEBA
http://data.eol.ucar.edu/codiac/projs?SHEBA

Shupe & Intrieri
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017%3C0616%3ACRFOTA%3E2.0.CO%3B2
[/quote]
« Last Edit: May 08, 2016, 05:04:00 PM by Andreas T »

seaicesailor

  • Guest
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #942 on: May 08, 2016, 06:15:27 PM »
That was a great explanation.
Still people should not expect a week of Mediterranean beach sun over Beaufort, the weather is going to be mixed, just looking at the maps. As for the effect over high albedo areas it is a condition that the cloud is being warmed enough (above ice surface temperatures). Otherwise I don't know how net positive heat is going to be transferred from cloud to ice. Weather maps show a long tongue of 850 mb temperature substantially below zero aside of the heat wave over North America.

bbr2314

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1817
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 164
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #943 on: May 08, 2016, 06:54:13 PM »
DMI model looks to show the Nares breaking up. This would be unprecedented by months and months I believe?

There was a major Atlantic-side cracking event in late April and the Pacific event has now shattered most of what that missed. In the satellite record, no year compares.

Click to animate GIF. While the DMI output is jaw-dropping the cracks are rapidly expanding in the direction of the Nares. Wonder if the integrity of the bridge is compromised by this resulting in a record-early opening in a few days.

Espen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3341
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 230
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #944 on: May 08, 2016, 09:03:47 PM »
The ongoing expansion of the Beaufort Gyre continues:
Have a ice day!

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1330
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 46
  • Likes Given: 29
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #945 on: May 08, 2016, 09:18:10 PM »
If 12z ECMWF forecast rub verifies, it might be a complete disaster for the Arctic ice....

AmbiValent

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 136
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #946 on: May 08, 2016, 09:46:41 PM »
And now, the fnord near Kimmirut looks darker than the snow on either side of it... just a week ago, there were only small dark islands.
Bright ice, how can you crack and fail? How can the ice that seemed so mighty suddenly seem so frail?

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3805
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 666
  • Likes Given: 469
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #947 on: May 08, 2016, 09:53:53 PM »
"... the cracks are rapidly expanding in the direction of the Nares."

From year or years past, I recall seeing a major crack across the Lincoln Sea with ice north of it moving along (towards Fram Strait, I recall) with no apparent affect on Nares Strait.  Would a clockwise rotation have a different affect on Nares?  I doubt it.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3256
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 535
  • Likes Given: 208
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #948 on: May 08, 2016, 10:17:59 PM »
"... the cracks are rapidly expanding in the direction of the Nares."

From year or years past, I recall seeing a major crack across the Lincoln Sea with ice north of it moving along (towards Fram Strait, I recall) with no apparent affect on Nares Strait.  Would a clockwise rotation have a different affect on Nares?  I doubt it.

Concur, Tor.  I don' think the mechanics will directly affect the strait.  We've seen the Lincoln sea broken up pretty completely before, with the Nares arch still in place.
This space for Rent.

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6530
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2419
  • Likes Given: 2103
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #949 on: May 08, 2016, 10:33:29 PM »
"... the cracks are rapidly expanding in the direction of the Nares."

From year or years past, I recall seeing a major crack across the Lincoln Sea with ice north of it moving along (towards Fram Strait, I recall) with no apparent affect on Nares Strait.  Would a clockwise rotation have a different affect on Nares?  I doubt it.

Concur, Tor.  I don' think the mechanics will directly affect the strait.  We've seen the Lincoln sea broken up pretty completely before, with the Nares arch still in place.

+1