Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: The 2016 melting season  (Read 1541239 times)

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3024
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 189
  • Likes Given: 172
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #250 on: April 08, 2016, 09:21:48 PM »
The euro blow torches NA.

Snow cover in Canada would be decimated


I anticipate majorly increased early flow in the drainages, especially the Mackenzie.  Signs of it won't reach the delta for a week to ten days or so however.  We should watch for it around then.
This space for Rent.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3024
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 189
  • Likes Given: 172
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #251 on: April 08, 2016, 09:55:36 PM »
Some images.  First is the Barents between Svalbard and Franz Joseph, visible light.  The ice there is probably at most got a week to survive. It is obviously getting torn apart and attacked from both above and below.

Second is band-31 temperature sensing of the approaches to the Fram - which I've used instead of visible, as it tends to cut through the cloud cover.  Again, the ice there is being torn up pretty badly.

It will be very vulnerable to the developing Greenland high pressure system.

(Almost forgot - the band-31 image has the pallet compressed to about 230K to 275K.  You can clearly see the northern coast of Greenland; Svalbard is to the right under the much hotter cloud cover.)

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_Brightness_Temp_Band31_Night(min=236.3,max=281.2,squash),Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2016-04-07&v=-779972.2641164958,-1239763.184045607,1614139.7358835042,-105171.18404560699
This space for Rent.

TerryM

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5330
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 467
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #252 on: April 08, 2016, 11:43:44 PM »
Tomorrow is day 100 of 2016 - and temperatures above 80 have never touched normal yet this year!
I'd checked every year since 1958 & 2012 was the only one that came anywhere close. Another way of looking at it is that north of 80 degrees, the temperatures have been like April since the year began.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

100 days & counting.

Terry

cesium62

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 286
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 9
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #253 on: April 09, 2016, 12:36:53 AM »
the adjoining land starts to loose its snow cover

[In case anyone was wondering, "Loose" and "lose" are neither homonyms nor synonyms.]

oren

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4494
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 881
  • Likes Given: 1288
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #254 on: April 09, 2016, 01:10:50 AM »
Tomorrow is day 100 of 2016 - and temperatures above 80 have never touched normal yet this year!
I'd checked every year since 1958 & 2012 was the only one that came anywhere close. Another way of looking at it is that north of 80 degrees, the temperatures have been like April since the year began.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

100 days & counting.

Terry

That chart looks scary when compared to other years. Perhaps the new normal has arrived?

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1507
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 140
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #255 on: April 09, 2016, 04:28:13 AM »
The euro blow torches NA.

Snow cover in Canada would be decimated


I anticipate majorly increased early flow in the drainages, especially the Mackenzie.  Signs of it won't reach the delta for a week to ten days or so however.  We should watch for it around then.
if the pattern we are seeing the next week or two materializes into May.

The melt season would start at an unprecedented early time and rate of change.

Solar insolation is already very strong by May 1st.

We could theoretically see surface melt into the basin by then if snow cover on land is already melted to the coast.
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1246
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 105
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #256 on: April 09, 2016, 10:02:26 AM »
If you look at the barrow webcam and pan it all the way right, you see that snow is already melting and ponding.  It's 0F-5F there at the moment so the second the sun goes down it freezes over.

The mass balance page shows the snow has vanished and the thickness has recorded it's first drop of the season.

Which is a bit dramatic for this time of year.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1507
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 140
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #257 on: April 09, 2016, 11:02:05 AM »
On the environment Canada page in the Yukon if you compare recent years or pretty much any year with snow depth data many cities melt out typically between April 20th and May 1st.

This year everywhere was already melted out. 

Many cities typically have 30-40CM left right now.


Because of this low temps are running well above normal while high temps are closer.

Cities at 62N on Permafrost that average below freezing lows until mid May are having NNE winds and lows of 1-2C.

Ridiculous.
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Andreas T

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1126
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #258 on: April 09, 2016, 12:25:45 PM »
these IR images from world view http://go.nasa.gov/1VGGrtC compare Beaufort and Bering
Bering shows what difference loss of snow cover makes on land (temperature scale compressed to 230 -285K) those yellows are at the top of that brightness temperature. In this daytime image, ice and water are indistinguishable ("cl" marks clouds) showing ice is not far from melting point (temperature drops at night). In those conditions the water opened by winds is not freezing over and the ice drifting south won't last long.
In Beaufort temperatures are still low, ice is cold and where it drifts from the coast water still freezes over. But there are southfacing slopes which are warming up and with warmer air from the south that picture will change.
Friv: could you explain more what "euro blow torches NA"  means? I am looking at 850Hpa temperatures for advection but don't see it.

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 7184
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 719
  • Likes Given: 472
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #259 on: April 09, 2016, 07:21:01 PM »
Here's some bonus material that wasn't included in my last ASIB blog post, snow cover in Alaska in the past two weeks (I'm curious to see how this animation will look next week):
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Andreas T

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1126
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #260 on: April 09, 2016, 11:30:18 PM »

oren

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4494
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 881
  • Likes Given: 1288
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #261 on: April 10, 2016, 01:46:47 AM »
Here's some bonus material that wasn't included in my last ASIB blog post, snow cover in Alaska in the past two weeks (I'm curious to see how this animation will look next week):

Great animation. That snow-free front in Canada has been advancing very quickly.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3024
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 189
  • Likes Given: 172
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #262 on: April 10, 2016, 05:50:32 AM »
What's happening in the Beaufort is pretty impressive.

I've captured 8 days of images, using band31-night, with the temperature palette reduced to 230-273K

At the start (4/2), its pretty obvious that the temperatures are fairly low - 243 to 253K / -30 to -20C.

However, as the cracking event progresses, it's clear how extensively it affects the pack as the open sea starts dumping heat into the atmosphere.  By the end, temperatures over large stretches are running above -10C, and the cracking has spread to the Chukchi/CAB proper, if you follow the temperature signatures up and to the right. (images will be across two posts.)
This space for Rent.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3024
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 189
  • Likes Given: 172
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #263 on: April 10, 2016, 05:52:19 AM »
Second of series.  The Beaufort "Grinder" is now fully active.
This space for Rent.

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 7184
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 719
  • Likes Given: 472
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #264 on: April 10, 2016, 10:51:54 AM »
Wow, that looks cool.  8)
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Laurent

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2536
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 23
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #265 on: April 10, 2016, 10:56:32 AM »
Cool may not be the good word... I would say hot, oufff, very hot... we are living interesting time !

Andreas T

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1126
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #266 on: April 10, 2016, 11:08:52 AM »
Obuoy14 which is near the upper centre of these images at roughly 75.5N 150W shows how this looks at ground level. Increasing sunshine brings daytime temperatures up to  -10degC and although clear nights bring large drops minimum temperatures are also rising.
This could well be a sign of the latent heat transfered from those opening leads into the atmosphere.

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4288
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 273
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #267 on: April 10, 2016, 01:34:28 PM »
The Beaufort "Grinder" is now fully active.

Coincidentally:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-2015-16-images/#Beaufort

Click all the way through to Worldview to check out the adjacent snow cover. See also:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-regional-graphs/beaufort-sea-ice-graphs/

Is the concentration really that bad across the Beaufort?
« Last Edit: April 10, 2016, 01:51:40 PM by Jim Hunt »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4288
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 273
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #268 on: April 10, 2016, 04:35:21 PM »
Here are the results of my own recent research into suspiciously selective reporting in certain quarters of the cryospheric blogosphere:

"The Awful Terrible Horrible Arctic Sea Ice Crisis"

Quote
As our regular reader(s) will be aware, Anthony Watts has been plagiarising our content and republishing it on his “Watts Up With That” blog. In a perplexing perversity he has also been refusing to publish content that we have happily contributed to the very same blog.

Many thanks to Wipneus for his assistance with Python processing of the raw data. Here's the preliminary results:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

magnamentis

  • Guest
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #269 on: April 10, 2016, 07:07:42 PM »
A bit something on flawed data to not loose the bigger picture as to progress of melting this early in the season.
Perhaps it's just me but one of my key data providers always fails around the interesting dated of the years, last
year it was JASMES  8)

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1457.msg73561.html#msg73561

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3024
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 189
  • Likes Given: 172
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #270 on: April 10, 2016, 08:11:52 PM »
The Beaufort "Grinder" is now fully active.

Is the concentration really that bad across the Beaufort?

Concentration?  No.  Ice integrity?  Yes.  That's the cause of my "grinder" observation.

The impact of what's happening now won't be felt for another 6-10 weeks, I'd say. That also presumes a continuation of the kind of weather which has been typical this season.

Your additional images foreshadow a bit of what I think we can expect.

(BTW - I want to extend a thank you to Andreas T for showing me/us the thermal imaging layers available in Worldview.  Very useful!)
« Last Edit: April 10, 2016, 08:18:47 PM by jdallen »
This space for Rent.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3024
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 189
  • Likes Given: 172
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #271 on: April 10, 2016, 08:19:38 PM »
Here are the results of my own recent research into suspiciously selective reporting in certain quarters of the cryospheric blogosphere:

"The Awful Terrible Horrible Arctic Sea Ice Crisis"

Quote
As our regular reader(s) will be aware, Anthony Watts has been plagiarising our content and republishing it on his “Watts Up With That” blog. In a perplexing perversity he has also been refusing to publish content that we have happily contributed to the very same blog.

Many thanks to Wipneus for his assistance with Python processing of the raw data. Here's the preliminary results:

How charming of him.  Keep at him, Jim.
This space for Rent.

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1263
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 26
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #272 on: April 10, 2016, 09:21:35 PM »
According to Judah Cohen the split of the polar vortex have rendered a highly unusual growth of the snow cover during the last weeks. Going from very low to very high relative the last 10 years. Only the season 2012-2013 had a larger snowcover at thistime in April....

The big question is whether this will have any significant effect on the melting season.

For those who are new here, the melting season of 2013 was avery boring one but very good for the sea ice.

Best, LMV

crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2513
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 94
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #273 on: April 10, 2016, 09:29:23 PM »
According to Judah Cohen the split of the polar vortex have rendered a highly unusual growth of the snow cover during the last weeks. Going from very low to very high relative the last 10 years. Only the season 2012-2013 had a larger snowcover at thistime in April....

The big question is whether this will have any significant effect on the melting season.

For those who are new here, the melting season of 2013 was avery boring one but very good for the sea ice.

Best, LMV

Interesting
given difference between

and


I was wondering if there were sensor issues with the latter as well as CT & NSIDC

Edit: Rutgers doesn't seem to show a dramatic change either see
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2016&ui_day=100&ui_set=2
« Last Edit: April 10, 2016, 09:38:49 PM by crandles »

crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2513
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 94
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #274 on: April 10, 2016, 09:51:11 PM »
https://weather.com/science/weather-explainers/news/polar-vortex-april-2016-cold-outbreak-east

seems rather like it is mainly concerned with East coast of US and Canada.

That area has gone from negative to positive on Rutgers. Sorry if I wrongly thought global in response to what I had seen instead of checking more carefully before reacting.

Andreas T

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1126
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #275 on: April 10, 2016, 10:08:18 PM »
The environment Canada graph stops 6 days short of the NOAA one and comparison is made with different range of years, so the two graphs are not contradicting each other (yet).
The uptick is mostly in Eurasia according to the NOAA site http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_monitor.html. The snowline there is some way from the arctic ocean so would have little effect there if it is shortlived I think.

sorry should have looked at your Rutgers link before posting. Eurasian increase is mainly in the Himalayas (or Hindukush?), some way from arctic, but I seem to recall lots of snow there last year too.
« Last Edit: April 10, 2016, 10:16:36 PM by Andreas T »

crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2513
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 94
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #276 on: April 10, 2016, 10:32:54 PM »
The environment Canada graph stops 6 days short of the NOAA one and comparison is made with different range of years, so the two graphs are not contradicting each other (yet).

Comparison is made with different range of years - certainly.

6 days short - How does that work? Red line (on both) seems to display at least a week of April? I have no information to say you are wrong just curious if it is displaying a 2 week average or plotted at wrong date or I am misunderstanding date labels or something.


Andreas T

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1126
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #277 on: April 10, 2016, 10:38:24 PM »
I am just taking the date at the bottom right corner of the environment Canada graph: 2016-04-03
could it be they just update weekly?

crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2513
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 94
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #278 on: April 10, 2016, 10:47:02 PM »
I am just taking the date at the bottom right corner of the environment Canada graph: 2016-04-03
could it be they just update weekly?

I see Last update Apr 9, 2016 on one and 2016-04-09 in corner of the other. Try a browser refresh?

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 7184
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 719
  • Likes Given: 472
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #279 on: April 10, 2016, 11:26:29 PM »
I've been looking at this too the past few says, and assumed the sudden uptick is a glitch.

Here's an animation for the entire NH. There's some snow popping up here and there, on the US east coast and in southern China (is that Himalayas?), but with all that snow disappearing in western Russia and elsewhere, I don't really see where the growth has come from:
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 7184
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 719
  • Likes Given: 472
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #280 on: April 10, 2016, 11:28:56 PM »
Here's another animation only showing days 86 and 100. The graph is from the same source, but they're not showing the same thing, I think:

Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3024
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 189
  • Likes Given: 172
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #281 on: April 10, 2016, 11:40:35 PM »
I've been looking at this too the past few says, and assumed the sudden uptick is a glitch.
Concur.  Considering current conditions, hard to imagine snow cover is doing anything other than declining.
This space for Rent.

charles_oil

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 302
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 22
  • Likes Given: 35
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #282 on: April 11, 2016, 12:15:12 AM »
Roll-on Monday... maybe NSIDC Arctic & Antarctic, and the Snow cover will get sorted / corrected and we can get back to watching the (probably rather rapid) decline !

magnamentis

  • Guest
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #283 on: April 11, 2016, 12:34:25 AM »
use the link in post 269 and you can watch without issues :-)

ktonine

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 363
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #284 on: April 11, 2016, 01:00:02 AM »
I've been looking at this too the past few says, and assumed the sudden uptick is a glitch.
Concur.  Considering current conditions, hard to imagine snow cover is doing anything other than declining.

I live in one of the affected areas - southern Wisconsin, USA.  Snow has indeed returned, albeit small, almost trace amounts, but it seems like it's been snowing for about a week straight - total accumulation amounts to zero.  It snows enough to cover the ground. It melts.  Rinse. Repeat. Temperatures have seemed to have stuck at freezing for that time.

So, I can easily imagine that large swaths of the north central plains/Great Lakes region are experiencing something similar.  It won't affect arctic sea ice since we're in the 40s latitude-wise, but it is kind of weird and out of place.

pauldry600

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 201
    • View Profile
    • weathergossip
  • Liked: 9
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #285 on: April 11, 2016, 02:50:17 AM »
Sea Ice seems to have grown due to a sensory fault similar to rainfall radars.

This isnt the case

Ice is fairly stagnant and slow decline at present

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1507
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 140
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #286 on: April 11, 2016, 10:38:06 AM »
these IR images from world view http://go.nasa.gov/1VGGrtC compare Beaufort and Bering
Bering shows what difference loss of snow cover makes on land (temperature scale compressed to 230 -285K) those yellows are at the top of that brightness temperature. In this daytime image, ice and water are indistinguishable ("cl" marks clouds) showing ice is not far from melting point (temperature drops at night). In those conditions the water opened by winds is not freezing over and the ice drifting south won't last long.
In Beaufort temperatures are still low, ice is cold and where it drifts from the coast water still freezes over. But there are southfacing slopes which are warming up and with warmer air from the south that picture will change.
Friv: could you explain more what "euro blow torches NA"  means? I am looking at 850Hpa temperatures for advection but don't see it.

Blow torch is slang for well above normal warmth.

The models have backed off a bit from setting up the persistent ridging they were showing. But recent Runs of the euro show extensively highly anomolous warm air advection into  the Northern sections of NA.



 This run of the euro showed 20C+ above normal 850mb temps pushing into far Northern Canada.

That's pretty much epic and would be historically warm if it actually verified.



I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1507
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 140
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #287 on: April 11, 2016, 10:50:27 AM »
When comparing 12-13 with 15-16 on the snow cover graphic it's pretty obvious something is way off.

I hope Mr. Cohen didn't blindly reference that graphic without doing any double checking.



I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4288
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 273
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #288 on: April 11, 2016, 11:10:09 AM »
For those who are new here, the melting season of 2013 was avery boring one but very good for the sea ice.

For those who are new here, the melting season of 2013 was a very interesting one:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2013/09/hello-world/

Best,

Snow White

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Anne

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 527
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 8
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #289 on: April 11, 2016, 04:56:44 PM »
Quote
For those who are new here, the melting season of 2013 was a very interesting one:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2013/09/hello-world/

Best,

Snow White
David, not Jack.  ;)

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1263
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 26
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #290 on: April 11, 2016, 09:10:48 PM »
Friv and others: actually, it seems as Mr Cohen indeed did tweet without doing any double check. You can find the tweet and the ongoing discussion at: https://twitter.com/judah47/status/719129653080952833

Btw, speaking about blowtorch in Greenland,due to foehn Kangerlussuaq measured a maximum temperature of 17,8oC today. Very close to the april record of 18,0oC from 1999. May be even higher if the foehn effect continues during evening. Should see some melting there soon.

Best, LMV

opensheart

  • New ice
  • Posts: 57
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #291 on: April 11, 2016, 09:14:28 PM »
We just drove from Cincinnati to Washinton DC over April 8 - 10, 2016.
The weather was really weird.   Sat Morning we had snow in and around DC,  But by afternoon one could go outside with a light jacket.
When we drove on the 10th we could see that the mountains of West Virgina had partial snow on them, that wasn't there on 8th.    partial snow in that it was not a continous blanket.   The tops of things melted off quick, but the sides and shadows had snow.

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4288
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 273
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #292 on: April 11, 2016, 09:36:49 PM »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4288
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 273
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #293 on: April 11, 2016, 10:10:05 PM »
Friv and others: actually, it seems as Mr Cohen indeed did tweet without doing any double check. You can find the tweet and the ongoing discussion at: https://twitter.com/judah47/status/719129653080952833

I took the liberty of Tweeting this to Judah:

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/719618087205605376
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 7184
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 719
  • Likes Given: 472
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #294 on: April 11, 2016, 11:37:35 PM »
Could it be that the automatic Multisensor thingy also relies on the failed sensor aboard DMSP F17?
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 7184
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 719
  • Likes Given: 472
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #295 on: April 11, 2016, 11:43:31 PM »
Slightly more on-topic now, the Beaufort Gyre is having a first, early effect on SIA numbers in the Beaufort Sea:
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 7184
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 719
  • Likes Given: 472
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #296 on: April 12, 2016, 09:55:23 AM »
Automated multisensor thingy has been fixed:
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

BornFromTheVoid

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 998
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 20
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #297 on: April 12, 2016, 10:14:29 AM »
Could it be that the automatic Multisensor thingy also relies on the failed sensor aboard DMSP F17?

They use the microwave instruments onboard the DMSP satellites so it's pretty likely they're seeing similar problems.

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4288
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 273
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #298 on: April 12, 2016, 10:34:59 AM »
Automated multisensor thingy has been fixed:

Only by truncation to March 31st! An in depth analysis:

"Satellite Problems With Arctic Sea Ice Measurement"

Quote
Skeptical sorts across the cryoblogosphere are in meltdown mode at the moment. They seem to be unaware that satellites don’t last forever in the harsh environment of space, and the individual scientific instruments carried by a satellite don’t either. Some failures are more spectacular than others however.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1263
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 26
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #299 on: April 12, 2016, 09:22:30 PM »
ECMWF 12z run is bad news for the sea ice and should render a lot of ice transport through Fram Strait if verified. Beaufort ice will be under pressure too. And at +240 hours the ECMWF has a ridiculous +8oC at 850 hPa-level at Alaskas west coast  :o

In 2006, the SIE according to IJIS was 12,44 Mn km2 so I think there is a decent chance that we might drop just below 12,5 Mn km2by April 30.

Best, LMV