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Author Topic: The 2016 melting season  (Read 1655199 times)

magnamentis

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #950 on: May 08, 2016, 10:53:47 PM »
And now, the fnord near Kimmirut looks darker than the snow on either side of it... just a week ago, there were only small dark islands.

yep, i as well observed, that, well visible when the sun has the right angle, i suspect bottom melt because the snow on top of it is still fresh from yesterday but there clearly is a blueish shine from below.
« Last Edit: May 08, 2016, 11:20:05 PM by magnamentis »

DungeonMaster

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #951 on: May 08, 2016, 11:04:11 PM »
I'm going to be off for a week, but will probably/hopefully be able to connect to the Internet. Don't break the Forum, please.  ;)

Yes Sir !
This forum helps me to feel less uncomfortable about "doing something" about the melting Arctic and the warming world.

werther

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #952 on: May 08, 2016, 11:09:06 PM »
Rotation and break-up are now the dominant features over most of the Arctic. The former rhomboid-shaped mesh pattern, which characterized the 'safe pack' once, is being overruled. In June, MODIS will provide evidence, when weather/clouds cooperate...

Watching_from_Canberra

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #953 on: May 09, 2016, 12:04:28 AM »
Attached is a gif animation of the last 10 days' sea ice thickness from JAXA's site:

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/vishop-monitor.html?N


seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #954 on: May 09, 2016, 12:29:11 AM »
Will be interesting to see if 2015 F snow layer has increased or not in 10 days ...

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #955 on: May 09, 2016, 02:08:40 AM »
That was a great explanation.
Still people should not expect a week of Mediterranean beach sun over Beaufort, the weather is going to be mixed, just looking at the maps. As for the effect over high albedo areas it is a condition that the cloud is being warmed enough (above ice surface temperatures). Otherwise I don't know how net positive heat is going to be transferred from cloud to ice. Weather maps show a long tongue of 850 mb temperature substantially below zero aside of the heat wave over North America.
As I understand it the clouds can be warmer than the ice surface at this time of the year. IR images sometimes show clouds warmer than ice surface and that is the upper side which cools by radiating out to space. But cloud only needs to reduce the deficit of the longwave balance, unless it it is very thick there is still diffuse shortwave reaching the surface which turns it into a positive balance. Apart from that there is also the heat flux from the sea below which raises ice temperature in the absence of a strong radiative deficit on the top. Obuoy14 temperature was down below -15 again on the 7th which shows that high temperatures don't happen without outside help.

EthanOConnor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #956 on: May 09, 2016, 03:31:16 AM »
ACNFS is capturing the ongoing fracturing quite well - and foresees everything poleward of the shores of the CAA breaking free and being entrained into the gyre!



And eyeballing the forecast it looks like we could see some dramatic drops in extent over the next week pretty much everywhere outside of the basin:


abbottisgone

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #957 on: May 09, 2016, 05:15:39 AM »
Worldview appears to be showing cracking appearing between Wrangel Island and The New Siberian Islands that isn't evident in previous images for May or June. This suggests the entire central area from the North Pole to the Pacific is starting to move in an unprecedented fashion.  This area is predicted to be extremely warm over the next  week so it  will be worth watching how this pans out.
when you say unprecedented which other years have you compared? The area you mention west of Wrangel island was more broken up in 2014 and 2015  I would say 2013 too. Worldview has AMSRE images for sept 2002 to sept 2011.
There were breaks around Wrangel island earlier his year too.
Why is there this focus on cracks in the ice? OK its fun to spot cracks and be the first to shout
The interesting thing about these cracks, is that combined with the cracks in Beaufort that head to wards the North Pole they contribute towards a semi circle of cracking from Beaufort to the Islands. This suggests a different form of breakup than that between the islands and the coast  in recent years.

The impression is of a central body ice that is starting to rotate much  like the Beaufort Gyre but  covering the entire area to the pole.  It  may  be nothing but it's worth watching, particularly  in a year that  is so  clearly  going to  be exceptional. .
DOES ANYONE ELSE FEEL LIKE THEY ARE WATCHING A REALITY TV SHOW?

Anyone know if David Attenborough is free to make a few comments on this?

 :o :o
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Flocke

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #958 on: May 09, 2016, 06:29:32 AM »
I'm going to be off for a week, but will probably/hopefully be able to connect to the Internet. Don't break the Forum, please.  ;)

I see lots of cracks in this forum. It might be braking at a margin.

Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #959 on: May 09, 2016, 06:33:21 AM »
DOES ANYONE ELSE FEEL LIKE THEY ARE WATCHING A REALITY TV SHOW?
Anyone know if David Attenborough is free to make a few comments on this?
 :o :o
Today, I was at a cafe viewing this forum and other arctic resources.  I felt compelled to engage a complete stranger about the state of the arctic.  I said, when I look at what's going on in the arctic right now it feels like I'm in a weird dream, so yeah abbottisgone like REALITY TV. 

For me, with my basic understanding of physics and climatology, what's developing in the arctic should be the world's most important news, but there's not a blip on mainstream media.  Anyways, big gratitude to all of you here for sharing your wisdom, insights and collaborating together - here's to a whole lot more of that at a planetary scale.  And soon!   :o
« Last Edit: May 09, 2016, 07:08:32 AM by Ice Shieldz »

abbottisgone

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #960 on: May 09, 2016, 07:09:11 AM »
DOES ANYONE ELSE FEEL LIKE THEY ARE WATCHING A REALITY TV SHOW?
Anyone know if David Attenborough is free to make a few comments on this?
 :o :o
Today, I was at a cafe viewing this blog and other arctic resources.  I felt compelled to engage a complete stranger about the state of the arctic.  I said, when I look at what's going on in the arctic right now it feels like I'm in a weird dream, so yeah abbottisgone like REALITY TV. 

For me, with my basic understanding of physics and climatology, what's developing in the arctic should be the world's most important news, but there's not a blip on mainstream media.  Anyways, big gratitude to all of you here for sharing your wisdom, insights and collaborating together - here's to a whole lot more of that at a planetary scale.  And soon!   :o

Exactly.

The issue of panic is real. The issue of also not letting the people panic is just as real.

I know this won't happen but imagine another 6 days in a  row of 100K losses... you've got world war 3 on your hands: lucky it won't happen!

We are flirting with anarchy tho and this is why we are all watching and I say it is relaity tv: THE WORLD IS WATCHING AND OLD MONEY GENERALLY KNOWS HOW TO KEEP ITSELF ABOVE WATER!

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oren

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #961 on: May 09, 2016, 07:14:45 AM »
The world isn't watching. it seems not to care much unfortunately.
The melting season is still extremely interesting! To those in the know here. And becoming more and more so. I kind of hold my breath every morning when I open the IJIS thread.

abbottisgone

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #962 on: May 09, 2016, 07:26:58 AM »
The world isn't watching. it seems not to care much unfortunately.
The melting season is still extremely interesting! To those in the know here. And becoming more and more so. I kind of hold my breath every morning when I open the IJIS thread.
Did you know visual information is processed from bottom to top?

That means eventually a critical mass will acknowledge this as the foreground of all relevant information.

Why, for instance, are electric cars in the market place? Why is the electric Grand Prix being backed by Richard Branson? Why are smart grids being acknowledged as crucial to the implementation of renewable energy globally that underpins all this ?

GET READY FOR RESOURCE BOTTLENECKS  :o



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CraigsIsland

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #963 on: May 09, 2016, 07:37:22 AM »
The world isn't watching. it seems not to care much unfortunately.
The melting season is still extremely interesting! To those in the know here. And becoming more and more so. I kind of hold my breath every morning when I open the IJIS thread.

Every season has been unique for me watching this forum for the last 4 years for me. This one has already topped the others. What's fascinating too is how frequent extreme weather occurs at lower latitudes. Also melting glaciers. Sea level rise metrics will be astonishing to see in the near term. Still have our most interesting climate days ahead. Be safe. Prepare for the changes. Educate those around you. My brother and I watch a lot of the forum and we're astonished. So much so we're formulating ways to make a direct impact to protect our environment.

jdallen

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #964 on: May 09, 2016, 07:48:03 AM »
DOES ANYONE ELSE FEEL LIKE THEY ARE WATCHING A REALITY TV SHOW?
Anyone know if David Attenborough is free to make a few comments on this?
 :o :o
Today, I was at a cafe viewing this blog and other arctic resources.  I felt compelled to engage a complete stranger about the state of the arctic.  I said, when I look at what's going on in the arctic right now it feels like I'm in a weird dream, so yeah abbottisgone like REALITY TV. 

For me, with my basic understanding of physics and climatology, what's developing in the arctic should be the world's most important news, but there's not a blip on mainstream media.  Anyways, big gratitude to all of you here for sharing your wisdom, insights and collaborating together - here's to a whole lot more of that at a planetary scale.  And soon!   :o

Exactly.

The issue of panic is real. The issue of also not letting the people panic is just as real.

I know this won't happen but imagine another 6 days in a  row of 100K losses... you've got world war 3 on your hands: lucky it won't happen!

We are flirting with anarchy tho and this is why we are all watching and I say it is relaity tv: THE WORLD IS WATCHING AND OLD MONEY GENERALLY KNOWS HOW TO KEEP ITSELF ABOVE WATER!
Chill. Lets do science.  It's the best option we have, and we are good at it.
This space for Rent.

Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #965 on: May 09, 2016, 07:52:35 AM »
Exactly.

The issue of panic is real. The issue of also not letting the people panic is just as real.

I know this won't happen but imagine another 6 days in a  row of 100K losses... you've got world war 3 on your hands: lucky it won't happen!

We are flirting with anarchy tho and this is why we are all watching and I say it is relaity tv: THE WORLD IS WATCHING AND OLD MONEY GENERALLY KNOWS HOW TO KEEP ITSELF ABOVE WATER!
Yes monied interests have succeeded in politicizing science and the air we breath – the very climate in which we all live.  abbottisgone perhaps we should take our dialog to a different thread, as this thread focuses primarily on the arctic melt season and related science.

Science is our bastion of common ground amidst all the discord and clashing of memes and ideologies - i think a lot of us have had enough of that - especially in light the intensifying climate realities we now face.  OK I've said enough - on with the science . . .

abbottisgone

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #966 on: May 09, 2016, 08:32:07 AM »
DOES ANYONE ELSE FEEL LIKE THEY ARE WATCHING A REALITY TV SHOW?
Anyone know if David Attenborough is free to make a few comments on this?
 :o :o
Today, I was at a cafe viewing this blog and other arctic resources.  I felt compelled to engage a complete stranger about the state of the arctic.  I said, when I look at what's going on in the arctic right now it feels like I'm in a weird dream, so yeah abbottisgone like REALITY TV. 

For me, with my basic understanding of physics and climatology, what's developing in the arctic should be the world's most important news, but there's not a blip on mainstream media.  Anyways, big gratitude to all of you here for sharing your wisdom, insights and collaborating together - here's to a whole lot more of that at a planetary scale.  And soon!   :o

Exactly.

The issue of panic is real. The issue of also not letting the people panic is just as real.

I know this won't happen but imagine another 6 days in a  row of 100K losses... you've got world war 3 on your hands: lucky it won't happen!

We are flirting with anarchy tho and this is why we are all watching and I say it is relaity tv: THE WORLD IS WATCHING AND OLD MONEY GENERALLY KNOWS HOW TO KEEP ITSELF ABOVE WATER!
Chill. Lets do science.  It's the best option we have, and we are good at it.
Alright  8)
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They didn't understand
They wanted me to be respected as
A doctor or a lawyer man
But I had other plans..........

abbottisgone

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #967 on: May 09, 2016, 08:33:35 AM »
Exactly.

The issue of panic is real. The issue of also not letting the people panic is just as real.

I know this won't happen but imagine another 6 days in a  row of 100K losses... you've got world war 3 on your hands: lucky it won't happen!

We are flirting with anarchy tho and this is why we are all watching and I say it is relaity tv: THE WORLD IS WATCHING AND OLD MONEY GENERALLY KNOWS HOW TO KEEP ITSELF ABOVE WATER!
Yes monied interests have succeeded in politicizing science and the air we breath – the very climate in which we all live.  abbottisgone perhaps we should take our dialog to a different thread, as this thread focuses primarily on the arctic melt season and related science.

Science is our bastion of common ground amidst all the discord and clashing of memes and ideologies - i think a lot of us have had enough of that - especially in light the intensifying climate realities we now face.  OK I've said enough - on with the science . . .
Alright.. on with the science it is  8)
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They wanted me to be respected as
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Bernard

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #968 on: May 09, 2016, 11:16:34 AM »
ACNFS is capturing the ongoing fracturing quite well - and foresees everything poleward of the shores of the CAA breaking free and being entrained into the gyre!

Looking at the ACNFS image it strikes me that the cracks radiating from Beaufort Gyre seem to propagate even in the thickest part of the MYI north of CAA, pretty close to the coast. Can this cracking propagation be powerful enough to let loose the fast ice remaining there (if any)?

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #969 on: May 09, 2016, 02:42:02 PM »
Will be interesting to see if 2015 F snow layer has increased or not in 10 days ...

To my surprise it already shows some snowing today. Might be noise however.

Acts5v29

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #970 on: May 09, 2016, 03:06:51 PM »
The world isn't watching. it seems not to care much unfortunately.
The melting season is still extremely interesting! To those in the know here. And becoming more and more so. I kind of hold my breath every morning when I open the IJIS thread.

Ditto.

Since the feed from NSIDC came to a halt I've been looking at this forum much more, and presumed my heightened concern at the posts here was misplaced at first.  I have no experience at-all with climate issues so rely on people like you for clarification of the data - but even to me it seems very unsettling.  You're right that the world is not particularly interested - if they were, you would be able to taste panic in the air .


AbruptSLR

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #971 on: May 09, 2016, 06:48:03 PM »
Robert Scribbler has a few key observations in the linked article:

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/05/09/warm-north-pacific-winds-predicted-to-usher-in-brutal-arctic-heatwave-this-week/

Extract: "In this context of extreme Arctic heat and already record low Arctic sea ice levels, we continue to expect new record lows to be reached by the end of the melt season — pushing past one or more of the low marks set during 2012 and possibly testing near zero sea ice ranges (blue ocean event) of 80 percent volume loss since 1979 and below 750,000 square kilometers of sea ice area and 1.5 million square kilometers of sea ice extent by September of this year."
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Juan C. García

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #972 on: May 09, 2016, 06:56:42 PM »
The Climate Reanalyzer forecast for this week is to have above 0 ºC temperatures at Bearing, Okhotsk, Chukchi and Beaufort seas, at the same time that also on Hudson Bay.  ::)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Timothy Astin

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #973 on: May 09, 2016, 08:13:54 PM »
Heatwave next to the Beaufort. Inuvik (just east of the Mackenzie delta) forecast to have temperatures on Thursday of low 11C and high 18C.  (norm of -3C and 6C).

Watch that snow melt, and the Mackenzie river flood rise ...

Laurent

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #974 on: May 09, 2016, 08:41:41 PM »
Some rain with the heat. From Monday to monday next week.
http://www.weather-forecast.com/maps/Arctic?symbols=none&type=prec


Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #975 on: May 09, 2016, 09:25:07 PM »
Forecast suggests a chance of pattern with a weak pattern and some low pressure by the end of the week.  Very little wind, less sun, and reduced warm air from further south.  Will this new pattern last a few days?  Or longer?  If longer it will have arrived at the perfect time to put the slow down on this melt season.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #976 on: May 09, 2016, 09:28:06 PM »
That is what I call to dodge a bullet if it verifies!Latest runs suggests that ESS will tske the hard hit rather thsn Beaufort Sea.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #977 on: May 09, 2016, 09:36:47 PM »
That is what I call to dodge a bullet if it verifies!Latest runs suggests that ESS will tske the hard hit rather thsn Beaufort Sea.
Not really... despite only somewhat above avg 850s over Beaufort the ground-level temps look to stay above 0C per GFS. In either case the Bering ice should be mostly gone this time next week, Okhotsk ice very damaged/much gone, just have to see how bad Beaufort gets hit.

werther

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #978 on: May 09, 2016, 09:41:58 PM »
Well yes, ECMWF shows the heat intrusion moves into the ESS later on. Tiksi and the Lena Delta will get above freezing within a week. Whatever position the ridging may choose, expect some parts of the Arctic to keep forwarding early ice condition deterioration.

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #979 on: May 09, 2016, 09:44:43 PM »
Attached are current Nullschool Surface Temp forecasts for May 10, 11 and 12 2016, respectively:
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werther

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #980 on: May 09, 2016, 10:03:32 PM »
ASLR, thanks for the Nullschool forecasts. For sure, real heat will mostly be limited to continental bounds. Over the sea ice, surface temps will remain close to zero. Most important is solar access. That seems to be pretty OK in the Chukchi/ESS sector within a few days.
GFS/Climate Reanalyzer is bullish on temps too. Melt pool May isn't far away...

JayW

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #981 on: May 09, 2016, 11:03:11 PM »
Just to be clear, nullschool and climate reanalyzer are both based off the same GFS data if I'm not mistaken.


Ohio State University, The Polar Meteorology Group, and the Byrd Polar Research Center have an arctic WRF model that goes out to 96 hours.  The color palette sucks, but thought I'd share the resource.  attached is the 96 hour surface forecast.

Looks mild, and that cyclone east of Greenland has been trending stronger on the models

http://polarmet.osu.edu/nwp/?model=arctic_wrf


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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #982 on: May 10, 2016, 01:16:22 AM »
That's a lot of smoke, where that lot going to drop out? Really hope not Greenland. [or anywhere tbh]

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #983 on: May 10, 2016, 01:43:28 AM »
ACNFS is capturing the ongoing fracturing quite well - and foresees everything poleward of the shores of the CAA breaking free and being entrained into the gyre!

Looking at the ACNFS image it strikes me that the cracks radiating from Beaufort Gyre seem to propagate even in the thickest part of the MYI north of CAA, pretty close to the coast. Can this cracking propagation be powerful enough to let loose the fast ice remaining there (if any)?

The CAA ice was loose last year.  Although the timing and cause of last year's looseness may be completely different from this year.

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #984 on: May 10, 2016, 01:56:13 AM »
ACNFS is capturing the ongoing fracturing quite well - and foresees everything poleward of the shores of the CAA breaking free and being entrained into the gyre!

Looking at the ACNFS image it strikes me that the cracks radiating from Beaufort Gyre seem to propagate even in the thickest part of the MYI north of CAA, pretty close to the coast. Can this cracking propagation be powerful enough to let loose the fast ice remaining there (if any)?

The CAA ice was loose last year.  Although the timing and cause of last year's looseness may be completely different from this year.

When portions of the ice along the CAA were pulled free, last year, it was much later in the year.  I think that what is happening this year is much more worrisome. What the final impact of this one event won't be known until we see the final Area, Extent and Volume numbers later this year.  Even then we won't know which contributing factors were the most prominent until the scientists have a chance to analyze everything.

After all many of us are nothing more than amateurs with some degree of scientific literacy and a great deal of concern over what is happening to our global ecosystem.
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abbottisgone

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #985 on: May 10, 2016, 03:29:23 AM »
ACNFS is capturing the ongoing fracturing quite well - and foresees everything poleward of the shores of the CAA breaking free and being entrained into the gyre!

Looking at the ACNFS image it strikes me that the cracks radiating from Beaufort Gyre seem to propagate even in the thickest part of the MYI north of CAA, pretty close to the coast. Can this cracking propagation be powerful enough to let loose the fast ice remaining there (if any)?

The CAA ice was loose last year.  Although the timing and cause of last year's looseness may be completely different from this year.

When portions of the ice along the CAA were pulled free, last year, it was much later in the year.  I think that what is happening this year is much more worrisome. What the final impact of this one event won't be known until we see the final Area, Extent and Volume numbers later this year.  Even then we won't know which contributing factors were the most prominent until the scientists have a chance to analyze everything.

After all many of us are nothing more than amateurs with some degree of scientific literacy and a great deal of concern over what is happening to our global ecosystem.
I am thinking that the 'looseness' we are talking about is from a projection chart...

There is obviously a reason as to why the projection chart models such a 'looseness' yet we should realise it is just a projection chart, should we not?
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cesium62

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #986 on: May 10, 2016, 03:43:28 AM »
ACNFS is capturing the ongoing fracturing quite well - and foresees everything poleward of the shores of the CAA breaking free and being entrained into the gyre!

Looking at the ACNFS image it strikes me that the cracks radiating from Beaufort Gyre seem to propagate even in the thickest part of the MYI north of CAA, pretty close to the coast. Can this cracking propagation be powerful enough to let loose the fast ice remaining there (if any)?

The CAA ice was loose last year.  Although the timing and cause of last year's looseness may be completely different from this year.

When portions of the ice along the CAA were pulled free, last year, it was much later in the year.  I think that what is happening this year is much more worrisome. What the final impact of this one event won't be known until we see the final Area, Extent and Volume numbers later this year.  Even then we won't know which contributing factors were the most prominent until the scientists have a chance to analyze everything.

After all many of us are nothing more than amateurs with some degree of scientific literacy and a great deal of concern over what is happening to our global ecosystem.
I am thinking that the 'looseness' we are talking about is from a projection chart...

There is obviously a reason as to why the projection chart models such a 'looseness' yet we should realise it is just a projection chart, should we not?

I thought we were looking at a model of wind on the ice and the tensile strength of ice, not a chart projection.

abbottisgone

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #987 on: May 10, 2016, 03:44:35 AM »
..oops  ;D
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Csnavywx

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #988 on: May 10, 2016, 04:58:54 AM »
Forecast suggests a chance of pattern with a weak pattern and some low pressure by the end of the week.  Very little wind, less sun, and reduced warm air from further south.  Will this new pattern last a few days?  Or longer?  If longer it will have arrived at the perfect time to put the slow down on this melt season.

It's much better to use ensemble means for forecasts past about day 6-7 (tau 144-168). There's far better run-to-run consistency and much better skill scores.

That said, the GEFS and EPS show little break in the abnormally warm temperatures.

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #989 on: May 10, 2016, 05:36:08 AM »
Howdy all, been following with horrific fascination. Always wanted to sail the NW passage, thrilled and horrified about the pending opportunities. Thanks for all your informative posts.
Meanwhile, in attempting to navigate various related sites, is the MacKenzie river about to flow a record melt into some record warm arctic temps? I'm aflutter with my sadistic tendency to thrill at extreme weather events, like rooting for a hurricane to grow stronger, even though I don't really want to see people hurt by the damage. This melt season appears to be that train wreck I can't look away from. Hope I'll be underwhelmed.

werther

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #990 on: May 10, 2016, 05:46:49 AM »
Yesterday's MODIS shows the first melt water puddles at the mouths of the Mackenzie delta. The Lena on the Sib side isn't that far yet.
Extent is slipping fast with another almost century loss.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #991 on: May 10, 2016, 06:02:23 AM »
It will be interesting to see how the models change as they resolve the scope of the melting that's now beginning across the Pacific side. The 00z GFS shows the surge of heat peaking in a few days. I can't imagine the implications of this will be clear until it happens but I think it could be similar to the 2012 GAC in terms of sheer impact as this will precondition almost half of the Arctic Ocean at a time when cracks are now rippling through the entire icepack, setting up a nightmare potential for very early albedo feedback.


bbr2314

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #992 on: May 10, 2016, 06:30:44 AM »
Hell looks like tonight's 00z GFS, I have never seen a map worse than this.


bbr2314

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #993 on: May 10, 2016, 06:43:29 AM »
On another bad note, here is today's grab over Okhotsk, where smoke from fires in Manchuria and Siberia is now drifting overhead. The conditions deteriorated terribly over the past two days and a similar event looks to be unfolding over NRN Canada (tho this one may be worse).

I wonder if smoke increases insolation over ice but decreases it over forest/open sea? In this case it would seem that comparing day to day shots shows Okhotsk sea ice getting obliterated, and it should be gone very shortly.

oren

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #994 on: May 10, 2016, 07:17:21 AM »
This melting season is simply relentless. IJIS numbers have crashed in the last two days, and the lead over the "new normal" years has grown to about two weeks. That's a whole lot, though it does not guarantee a record. 2015 went along a similar (though higher) record track, only to stop for one whole week at the beginning of June.

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #995 on: May 10, 2016, 07:45:35 AM »

I wonder if smoke increases insolation over ice but decreases it over forest/open sea?
Insolation is not as big an issue IMO as the ash that falls on the ice. That can really cause a problem with ice.
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #996 on: May 10, 2016, 07:58:57 AM »

I wonder if smoke increases insolation over ice but decreases it over forest/open sea?
Insolation is not as big an issue IMO as the ash that falls on the ice. That can really cause a problem with ice.
Do we class this as 'teleconnection' ?
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abbottisgone

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #997 on: May 10, 2016, 08:02:35 AM »
Question:  ???

How many two day periods have century break averages in the sattelite record?
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #998 on: May 10, 2016, 08:24:41 AM »
Just epic.




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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #999 on: May 10, 2016, 08:44:28 AM »
Howdy all, been following with horrific fascination. Always wanted to sail the NW passage, thrilled and horrified about the pending opportunities. Thanks for all your informative posts.
Meanwhile, in attempting to navigate various related sites, is the MacKenzie river about to flow a record melt into some record warm arctic temps? I'm aflutter with my sadistic tendency to thrill at extreme weather events, like rooting for a hurricane to grow stronger, even though I don't really want to see people hurt by the damage. This melt season appears to be that train wreck I can't look away from. Hope I'll be underwhelmed.

Howdy neighbor :) welcome to the forum :) Neven also regularly posts a blog and maintains awesome page of arctic graphs. 

neven1.typepad.com

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