The 2016 melting season

[F.Tnioli]

...
Human guts can be quite good at predicting changes in complex systems. Better than formal analysis in many cases. Undoubtedly an evolutionary thing. Humans who intuitively grasp the flight of the spear through the air get to eat the wildebeest, instead of the spear.

Yep. Still, i find it a bit ironic that in order to develop any useful "scientific" guts, one has to do lots of totally deterministic, rational methods and conclusions, and prefer such to any "informal" analysis - whenever available.

Speaking of which, seems Cryosphere Today ice area went completely nuts. Any hope it'll be fixed any soon, or is it dead for good?

[JayW]

Record warmth has hit Barrow, Alaska.

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BARROW AK
110 AM AKDT WED MAY 11 2016


...DAILY HIGH MAX TIED...

THE DAILY HIGH MAX OF 36 ON TUESDAY MAY 10 AT 1133 PM AKST TIED THE
OLD DAILY HIGH MAX SET IN 1996.

$$

http://www.arh.noaa.gov/textforecasts.php?type=statement

[plinius]

well, there is also an interesting option in the long-term forecasts for the arctic basin: the low currently entering the arctic undermines the high pressure system and gives way to a shallow, central arctic low. That pattern would be efficient in avoiding strong WLA over the rim and at the same time keeps the ice spread towards the margins, preventing expansion of the polynyas. Would be a rather good scenario for the ice.

[Richard Rathbone]

Essentially, if you were challenged to engineer a season for record melting, wouldn't it begin much like this?

I'd start with strong winds in November blowing from the CAA to the Laptev across the pole.  Or maybe that's exactly what happened this season?

I'd want a record warm May, not the average one we are having in the central Arctic. Early melt ponds to get CAB melting earlier and longer.

[Siffy]

Essentially, if you were challenged to engineer a season for record melting, wouldn't it begin much like this?

I'd start with strong winds in November blowing from the CAA to the Laptev across the pole.  Or maybe that's exactly what happened this season?

I'd want a record warm May, not the average one we are having in the central Arctic. Early melt ponds to get CAB melting earlier and longer.

I'm guessing you've not been paying attention to the GFS forecasts which have the snow cover over much of the pacific Arctic sea ice melting out by the 18th of may then.

[iceman]

Essentially, if you were challenged to engineer a season for record melting, wouldn't it begin much like this?

I'd start with strong winds in November blowing from the CAA to the Laptev across the pole.  Or maybe that's exactly what happened this season?

I'd want a record warm May, not the average one we are having in the central Arctic. Early melt ponds to get CAB melting earlier and longer.

Concur, though there will be quite a lot of clear skies accompanying the high temps on the Pacific side this coming week.
       Sure would be nice to have the melt ponds data from satellite images that Neven stressed in his EGU2016 post on the blog.

To me, the missing element this year is heavy Fram Strait export, as in 2007.

[Csnavywx]

Essentially, if you were challenged to engineer a season for record melting, wouldn't it begin much like this?

I'd start with strong winds in November blowing from the CAA to the Laptev across the pole.  Or maybe that's exactly what happened this season?

I'd want a record warm May, not the average one we are having in the central Arctic. Early melt ponds to get CAB melting earlier and longer.

Miiiiiighhht want to re-check that one.

[Csnavywx]

Plus, there is nothing to indicate that this won't be anything BUT a near-record to record for May thusfar:






as compared to 2012 for instance:

[F.Tnioli]

Miiiiiighhht want to re-check that one.

Yep. When looking at that, i just thought this: the 2012's Pole is like Ruby Rhod, dancing around, but the 2016's Pole is like Korben Dallas, steady mean block going through.

.

[abbottisgone]

...
Human guts can be quite good at predicting changes in complex systems. Better than formal analysis in many cases. Undoubtedly an evolutionary thing. Humans who intuitively grasp the flight of the spear through the air get to eat the wildebeest, instead of the spear.

Yep. Still, i find it a bit ironic that in order to develop any useful "scientific" guts, one has to do lots of totally deterministic, rational methods and conclusions, and prefer such to any "informal" analysis - whenever available.

Speaking of which, seems Cryosphere Today ice area went completely nuts. Any hope it'll be fixed any soon, or is it dead for good?

You learn informality in an informal environment and then you go out and try and be all informal and turn into mum and/or dad: such is the circle of life 

[Jim Hunt]

the only buoys reporting I know of.

Unless I've misunderstood something, all these buoys are supposed to currently be reporting surface temperature:

http://iabp.apl.washington.edu/maps_daily_map.html

[F.Tnioli]

...
Human guts can be quite good at predicting changes in complex systems. Better than formal analysis in many cases. Undoubtedly an evolutionary thing. Humans who intuitively grasp the flight of the spear through the air get to eat the wildebeest, instead of the spear.

Yep. Still, i find it a bit ironic that in order to develop any useful "scientific" guts, one has to do lots of totally deterministic, rational methods and conclusions, and prefer such to any "informal" analysis - whenever available.

Speaking of which, seems Cryosphere Today ice area went completely nuts. Any hope it'll be fixed any soon, or is it dead for good?

You learn informality in an informal environment and then you go out and try and be all informal and turn into mum and/or dad: such is the circle of life 

Hm... You mean, CT will get back to working properly only after they'll spit up another baby satellite?

Joke. We ain't talking _that_ kind of formal communication here, i believe; nothing protocol'ish. Rather, we were talking about some folks trying to use that "kind of like soft computing" thing (sometimes mistaken for general "human intuition", but not quite it), generally speaking, in the sense of using it for trying predicting when exactly ACI would give up to 1st ever (for mankind) blue ocean event, and what this current 2016 minimums would end up be. At least, i was.

[plinius]

The warmth still hasn't really made its way to the surface
http://iabp.apl.washington.edu/maps_daily_table.html
Buoy 838210 still freezing air temperature, and also Obuoy14 is still below freezing. A catastrophic scenario for the ice looks different than what we are seeing so far.

[6roucho]

Yep. Still, i find it a bit ironic that in order to develop any useful "scientific" guts, one has to do lots of totally deterministic, rational methods and conclusions, and prefer such to any "informal" analysis - whenever available.
...

The analogue brain still uses all that knowledge. It might be mysterious but it's real processing.

[F.Tnioli]

The warmth still hasn't really made it's way to the surface
http://iabp.apl.washington.edu/maps_daily_table.html
Buoy 838210 still freezing air temperature, and also Obuoy14 is still below freezing. A catastrophic scenario for the ice looks different than what we are seeing so far.

Those numbers are elusive. Picture, may be? Anyhows, looking at there map, i clearly see massive differencies in terms of concentration to some of matherial even in this very thread made few days prior. And i doubt ice just grew there out of thin (and warm rather much of ice covered area) air.

edit: gee, gentlemen, apparently we all here are hopelessly outdated! Lookie here, see the column "Last Updated"? It has some big truth in it, now does it. Two rows from it, i copy-paste:

10/23/2032 17:20
07/28/2057 00:00

[plinius]

I hope you are aware of the reliability difference between a weather forecast and a temperature measurement? It does not seem so.

[Greenbelt]

[Csnavywx]

The warmth still hasn't really made its way to the surface
http://iabp.apl.washington.edu/maps_daily_table.html
Buoy 838210 still freezing air temperature, and also Obuoy14 is still below freezing. A catastrophic scenario for the ice looks different than what we are seeing so far.

Nor should it be above freezing yet. It's near the diurnal min and 838120 hasn't reported since yesterday. The fact that temps are steady approaching the min indicates strong low-level warm advection.

[AbruptSLR]

In my opinion the open water in the Beaufort Sea in 2012 (see yellow line) facilitated the GAC more than anything else, and we are currently ahead of 2012 w.r.t. to open water in the Beaufort in 2016:

[Buddy]

In my opinion the open water in the Beaufort Sea in 2012 (see yellow line) facilitated the GAC more than anything else, and we are currently ahead of 2012 w.r.t. to open water in the Beaufort in 2016:

YES.  And if you look at the Arctic ice at the end of 2012....a "big fat tail" hangs over into the Beaufort.....and that puppy is TOAST this year.

Next few years going to be "wild ones" in the Arctic and Greenland.....  Hang onto your hats...

[oren]

In my opinion the open water in the Beaufort Sea in 2012 (see yellow line) facilitated the GAC more than anything else, and we are currently ahead of 2012 w.r.t. to open water in the Beaufort in 2016:

But so was 2015, and it ended up stalling in the Beaufort for a long time. It's still not settled.

[AbruptSLR]

In my opinion the open water in the Beaufort Sea in 2012 (see yellow line) facilitated the GAC more than anything else, and we are currently ahead of 2012 w.r.t. to open water in the Beaufort in 2016:

But so was 2015, and it ended up stalling in the Beaufort for a long time. It's still not settled.

Nothing is certain until it actually occurs, and in that regards, the first attached Nullschool Arctic Surface Temp & Wind Map for May 11 2016 shows that the coastal regions of the Beaufort are currently above freezing, and second attached image with tomorrows forecast shows a high probability that this above freezing region will extend offshore in the Beaufort.

[magnamentis]

In my opinion the open water in the Beaufort Sea in 2012 (see yellow line) facilitated the GAC more than anything else, and we are currently ahead of 2012 w.r.t. to open water in the Beaufort in 2016:

But so was 2015, and it ended up stalling in the Beaufort for a long time. It's still not settled.

yes it stalled but that was thick ice if i remember correctly and this year it's thinner and pre-fractured so to say?

[Frivolousz21]

Area where surface melt started over the Pacific side is very evident on these images.  When the images come in this evening expect a lot of expansion of that.

[Andreas T]

couldn't the same effect be produced by falling wet snow? Albedo would probably drop in both cases.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/city?LANG=en&CEL=C&SI=mph&MAPS=over&CONT=asie&LAND=RF&REGION=0028&WMO=21982&UP=0&R=0&LEVEL=140&NOREGION=1

Not sure whether these are observations or model output but it reports temps slightly above 0degC and snow showers for Wrangel island.

[Tor Bejnar]

Following the up-thread discussion of what happens when Arctic river ice breaks up up-stream and meets fixed-in-place ice down-stream (which is further north), images of ice jams and ice dams are available through internet searches.  I did find this interesting note on how ice jams are changing with our current experience of climate change from Research Gate (whoever they are).

[werther]

"This GFS warmth injection is remarkable but won't have decisive extent implications. "

Still my opinion, but it is exciting to see how this marked weather event has an impact. Firm Southern winds are opening the North Slope fast ice lead, thus connecting the large Mackenzie polynia and open water near Barrow.

Ensemble, a big polynia may appear within the next two days. It may close again when winds back off, but it is an impressive sight on MODIS.

[NeilT]

I see that Barrow has hit 36F and the webcam is showing extensive melt ponding on the landfast ice.

[icy voyeur]

I see that Barrow has hit 36F and the webcam is showing extensive melt ponding on the landfast ice.

Ha, been watching the same camera. The 1 day movie shows some nice melt on the one street and a particular roof. But there may have been some light drizzle to account for some of it. They are currently at 40F, a new record for the day breaking the old record of 36F.
PS, I still consider Sun to be the first day of the week

[Greenbelt]

[jdallen]

couldn't the same effect be produced by falling wet snow? Albedo would probably drop in both cases.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/city?LANG=en&CEL=C&SI=mph&MAPS=over&CONT=asie&LAND=RF&REGION=0028&WMO=21982&UP=0&R=0&LEVEL=140&NOREGION=1

Not sure whether these are observations or model output but it reports temps slightly above 0degC and snow showers for Wrangel island.

Too warm I think Andreas; you wouldn't be seeing snow so much as falling slush.  Upper air temps are pretty high, and Wrangel is a long way from where it's currently hottest in the Beaufort.

[Ice Shieldz]

7 Day Mean



That's a lot of "preconditioning" for the ice sheet.  Wondering if the warmest anomaly blob, hugging 80° north, might initiate some melting there?

[RoxTheGeologist]

It looks like there is a lot of open water in the MacKenzie delta.

link: http://go.nasa.gov/1TAqT68

[werther]

Thanks Rox,

The river water puddles on, under and in the fast ice are growing rapidly. The same MODIS mosaic shows the blue hue over the Chukchi Sea indicating melting snow cover and first melt pool development.

[abbottisgone]

Record warmth has hit Barrow, Alaska.

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BARROW AK
110 AM AKDT WED MAY 11 2016


...DAILY HIGH MAX TIED...

THE DAILY HIGH MAX OF 36 ON TUESDAY MAY 10 AT 1133 PM AKST TIED THE
OLD DAILY HIGH MAX SET IN 1996.

$$

http://www.arh.noaa.gov/textforecasts.php?type=statement

How can the record temp be set at 11.33 at night? 

[abbottisgone]

In my opinion the open water in the Beaufort Sea in 2012 (see yellow line) facilitated the GAC more than anything else, and we are currently ahead of 2012 w.r.t. to open water in the Beaufort in 2016:

YES.  And if you look at the Arctic ice at the end of 2012....a "big fat tail" hangs over into the Beaufort.....and that puppy is TOAST this year.

Next few years going to be "wild ones" in the Arctic and Greenland.....  Hang onto your hats...

Temperature forecasts seem to be punishing that exact spot!!

[Tensor]

How can the record temp be set at 11.33 at night? 

Two things, at this time of year, the sun is up for 24 hours in Barrow (max height is at approximately 18:30.  Also, time of day doesn't matter as to when warm air is moving through. 

[BenB]

Further to Friv's post, the 3-6-7 bands on Modis also shows that albedo has really gone down in the Chukchi Sea over the past few days, suggesting that the warm temperatures are causing surface melting/melt ponding.

9th of May:



11th of May:

[abbottisgone]

...strong colours breed strong emotion so I may be getting distracted by that!

How far away from normal is the above albedo data?

[BenB]

Same date 2015:



2014:



Certainly 2016 shows more open water and lower albedo than the two previous years, but this varies quite a lot from day to day and week to week, so it's not definitive proof of anything. The original point was more that you can already see the impact of the warm air moving in over the Pacific side of the Central Arctic.

[abbottisgone]

Cheers!

[cesium62]

Essentially, if you were challenged to engineer a season for record melting, wouldn't it begin much like this?

I'd start with strong winds in November blowing from the CAA to the Laptev across the pole.  Or maybe that's exactly what happened this season?

I'd want a record warm May, not the average one we are having in the central Arctic. Early melt ponds to get CAB melting earlier and longer.

That's a testable hypothesis:


What do you think?  Does a warm May correlate well with record setting melts?

[nukefix]

That's a lot of "preconditioning" for the ice sheet.  Wondering if the warmest anomaly blob, hugging 80° north, might initiate some melting there?

A comment on terminology: The term "ice sheet" refers to land ice, for example The Greenland Ice Sheet. Sea ice is never an "ice sheet".

[magnamentis]

@nukefix always a good place to learn here while the correct term would have been a welcome addendum to the identification of the false term :-) would ice cover be a possibility or is it just sea-ice or is there a specific
scientific term?

[plinius]

very interesting and pretty drastic change in the GFS mid-term forecasts - now we have a powerful low pressure system moving from Siberia into the ESS/Laptev and forcing some ridging over the Beaufort. That's more important than the current low, because (connecting to the low pressure in the Barents) it will set the stage for a dipol situation with additional WLA over eastern Siberia and losses through the Fram.

[DavidR]

What do you think?  Does a warm May correlate well with record setting melts?

Neither 2007 or 2012 rate in the top 10 for May, in SST or Air at either 67N+ or 80N+.

They were however hottest or second hottest for both SST and Air global at tthe time they  set their records.  2016 is expected to  be the way hottest May globally  in both SST and Air

[plinius]

That's a testable hypothesis:

What do you think?  Does a warm May correlate well with record setting melts?

Not very good test - the ice and more important snow on top of it shows only significant reactions to _above_ freezing temperatures. So average temperatures so far below freezing are bad statistics. If you tried area in CAB exposed to melt, things would be very different.

[F.Tnioli]

Essentially, if you were challenged to engineer a season for record melting, wouldn't it begin much like this?

I'd start with strong winds in November blowing from the CAA to the Laptev across the pole.  Or maybe that's exactly what happened this season?

I'd want a record warm May, not the average one we are having in the central Arctic. Early melt ponds to get CAB melting earlier and longer.

That's a testable hypothesis:


What do you think?  Does a warm May correlate well with record setting melts?

Seeing where '07 is - it doesn't, you mean? I can agree.

However this is not proper test, nor proper hypothesis. You test one which sounds like "warm May always causes record melt". While  Richard meant, i think, quite different one: "record warm May leads to greater melt during the season".

The difference is, the former assumes that record warm May is _the_ main cause of record season melt (which is obviously not true); thus your proof indeed demonstrates this one wrong. However the latter assumes that record May warmth is important, but not the main nor not the only (by far) major factor, and if other important factors (most of them) are "working" against whatever May situation was, - then the season melt can end up being very "opposite" to what May temperature could suggest for the season. Example being '07 in the graph, - cold May, record melt.

Since the original question was about the start of record-melt season, i dig "record warmth May" being indeed quite appropriate thing to start with, if one would be asked to "engineer" record season melt. As '07 demonstrated, record melt _back then_ could happen without warm May; doesn't mean the same is true now, 9 years later - after 2012 record, i mean. And in any case, to indeed engineer it, record-warmth May is very not enough.

[6roucho]

What do you think?  Does a warm May correlate well with record setting melts?

Neither 2007 or 2012 rate in the top 10 for May, in SST or Air at either 67N+ or 80N+.

They were however hottest or second hottest for both SST and Air global at tthe time they  set their records.  2016 is expected to  be the way hottest May globally  in both SST and Air

A crucial point that one. Some metrics that we perceive as unexceptional now were exceptional then.

[F.Tnioli]

I'm now reading NASA report on current state of ASI, and they got this area graph (2nd pic):



And in it, i see that significant peak on the area graph few days prior May 8th. Is it real, or is it the same thing which plagues Cryosphere Today ice area graph lately, yet in smaller scale? If it's real, then what is the cause of this unusual increase (~400k in like 2-3 days, it seems?) of ice area? Could it be related to large drift of big parts of sea ice, perhaps some areas of open water formed due to the drift froze up just a bit for a short while?