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werther

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1150 on: May 13, 2016, 11:39:26 AM »
Analyzing yesterday’s MODIS tiles, I see perfectly reflected that the Arctic sea ice is in bad shape for the time of the year.

Blue hues indicate melting snow and initial melt pond formation. Around the Chukchi Sea over 1.2 Mkm2, 15 Kkm2 in Coronation Gulf CAA, in the Gulf of Boothia, 300 Kkm2 in the Labrador Sea and Hudson Strait, all not landfast sea ice in the East Greenland Sea.

Big polynia’s; 180 Kkm2 in the Beaufort, 43 Kkm2 in the Chukchi, 15 Kkm2 in the Laptev, 30 Kkm2 in the Kara Sea. The North Water polynia in Baffin Bay, about 60 Kkm2.

Rallying leads, larger than ever, running through what once was ‘mesh pattern’ safe ice. All this torsion leaves just 650 Kkm2 near the Pole and the Lincoln Sea unaffected.

Shattered ice, breaking up into millions of smaller floes. All of Kara Sea, including the ice in the free moving Vilkitsky Strait. The CAB near Svalbard and Frantsa Yosefa, where the big 100 Kkm2 swath of open sea to the N is in formation once more. Of course in the Beaufort and Chukchi, where the process is in full swing over 1 Mkm2. All remaining ice in Baffin Bay, just above 400 Kkm2.

Foxe Basin and Northern Hudson Bay are in the process of being wind-swept into open water.

To finish; around the small islands in Nares Strait the structure of older floes becomes visible, suggesting that the ice is thin and will soon start breaking.
« Last Edit: May 13, 2016, 11:54:26 AM by werther »

BenB

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1151 on: May 13, 2016, 12:56:58 PM »
I've basically been told that water vapour melts ice!

Indeed it does - at least when it condenses. When water vapour condenses to water, it releases a lot of energy - roughly 7.5 times as much per molecule as is needed to melt ice. When warm, moist air enters the Arctic, it cools. This causes condensation, because colder air can hold less moisture than warmer air. You can also describe this process in terms of dew points. See:

http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/03/25/ask-eric-why-does-humid-air-melt-snow-faster/

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1152 on: May 13, 2016, 01:05:13 PM »
... At the absolute zero Kelvin, no mixing occurs (hehe). On the other hand, close to 370 degrees Kelvin, lots of mixing occurs (as evident from boiling any container of water). 

Tried to ignore this but it's bugging me. I'd discourage the image of boiling water as being a good model of thermal motion at 373 K. If you watch a pot, well of course it won't boil [that's a joke, old wives tale in English]. More seriously, what you'll first see at close to boiling is lots of convective flow because the water on the bottom of the pot gets hotter first, and lighter so it rises. That's not the same as just the thermal energy as it depends on thermal gradients. And then once things are actually boiling you've got mechanical mixing as water vaporizes at the bottom of the pot and the bubbles rise.
Sure, thermal energy produces more movement but it isn't even close to as aggressive as boiling water.
Bit nitpicky but it is a sciency forum.
It was about SSTs. Three main causes of higher SSTs are afaik those: 1. warm water currents entering the location; 2. sunlight hitting sea surface; 3. warm near-surface air going through. The 1st can happen both "on top" of pre-existing colder water, or convect up from below, means your point is only partially applicable. The 2nd warms up (much of) the column, plus the bottom if it's shallow enough waters (generally < 100m), so once again your point is only partially valid, especially in the latter (shallow waters) case. The 3rd assumes near-surface air movement, i.e. wind, which tends to create waves, and waves create mixing, and the higher temperature difference between "initially cold" water and "warmer incoming air" is, the more active mixing i guess will be (at any specific given wind speed).

That said, yep, it is too sloppy thing to be seriously considered a point - that thing you quote. Never intended to be; much more a joke than anything else. Please note "hehe" part. :)

The following point i made back there, which looks like being based on what you quote, is actually based on consideration i just wrote in the 1st paragraph here. It is my understanding most people in this topic are well aware about all this, thus i went this kind of frivolous back there. Yep, mea culpa.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1153 on: May 13, 2016, 01:06:18 PM »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1154 on: May 13, 2016, 01:25:52 PM »


Arctic +5.08  :o :o

Maybe it will back off a little before then.
Is there also dark red over the Himalayas?

I think mountain climbing might be off again this year  :o
Nope, not dark-red, it's pink-purple-whatever ~-10...-20C anomaly is colored of.

Lots of dark-red in the Arctic, though, that's in fact most dark-red anomaly temperature map i've _ever_ seen so far. Pole, Alaska, Russia's Far East, central Greenland, much of Canada and lots of the continent south from Novaya Zemlya - all that is just massive together.

Time to talk how lots of forest fires will make a punch to lower albedo in the Arctic, too? Seeing that much Arctic lands going that high anomalies, and knowing about massive currently ongoing forest fires in 3 russian regions and forest fires in Canada which already caused evacuation of dozens thousands people several days ago, and then seeing this temperature anomaly map, i just think lots and lots soot will fly around, and thus lots of soot will end up darkening remaining snow/ice in the Arctic ocean in the next few months.
« Last Edit: May 13, 2016, 01:38:30 PM by F.Tnioli »
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1155 on: May 13, 2016, 01:36:36 PM »
Could anyone post an updated chart of the Mackenzie River flow?

This only goes up to the 9th. After a swift rise, at that point the published "water level" & "discharge" readings dropped to zero! Much the same thing happened last year, albeit a few days later.
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Andreas T

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1156 on: May 13, 2016, 02:13:21 PM »
The Arctic Red River, near to its river mouth with the Mackenzie river, reached peak stage overnight (4 days earlier than last year). 
http://wateroffice.ec.gc.ca/report/report_e.html?mode=Graph&type=realTime&stn=10LA002&dataType=Real-Time&startDate=2015-05-03&endDate=2016-05-10&prm1=46&y1Max=&y1Min=&prm2=47&y2Max=&y2Min=

The automated equipment monitoring the Mackenzie River nearby is currently down because of the rapidly rising river flood.

Expect to see a lot more water appear on the Mackenzie delta in the next few days.
Timothy posted this very helpful comment earlier, could it be an explanation?

OldLeatherneck

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1157 on: May 13, 2016, 02:26:47 PM »
2016 is shaping up to be a disastrous year for the Arctic.  I, for one, appreciate the many knowledgeable  people on this forum who contribute such valuable insight and knowledge to the discussion.  Since my aging grey matter continues to think that meteorological charts are nothing more than Rorschach tests, I really appreciate Frivolous and others for providing regular forecasts.  As the table below shows, IJIS Extent losses are tracking well above average this year, and I expect that this will continue, since average daily loss through early June is only about 50K.  I've posted this table as well as a graph of 2016 IJIS Extent against averages from March  20th through today on the IJIS thread.

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,230.2200.html

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Buddy

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1158 on: May 13, 2016, 02:39:52 PM »
The thing I REALLY like about the chart Leatherneck posted today....is that you're able to EASILY compare the current year to the average.  And I like that you broke the month up into thirds.  Not too small a piece...and not too big of a piece.  And it allows the user to see where we are tracking THIS YEAR....and compare that to prior average years.

I will get off track slightly....but it reminds me of a couple charts I compiled for the CEO of a company I worked for (I was the Controller).  I KNEW what the issues were in the company, but I needed a way to CLEARLY convey that to the CEO.  The numbers just POPPED off the chart...because you could EASILY see where the problems were.  Of course.....the business groups that didn't look so good....HATED THE PRESENTATION (much like the fossil fuel companies today HATE the numbers.....because they tell the real story). 

In your OTHER new chart you posted today....I like that you looked FORWARD (a what if....we kept going at 25% great than average).  THAT...is really good.  Because THAT is what "we humans" need to be thinking with not only the ice sheet, but with sea level rise and temperatures as well.  So you combine the ACTUAL we have records for....with the "what if" going forward numbers.  Powerful stuff.....


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iceman

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1159 on: May 13, 2016, 02:44:23 PM »
Analyzing yesterday’s MODIS tiles, I see perfectly reflected that the Arctic sea ice is in bad shape for the time of the year.

Blue hues indicate melting snow and initial melt pond formation. ...

Looks like we're at or approaching a record for melt pond formation.  The April/May pond fraction is the key independent variable in the Schröder model.  Anyone have data or graphs for comparison to prior years?
    No doubt Neven will jump on this when he gets back.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1160 on: May 13, 2016, 04:29:36 PM »
...
Could anyone post an updated chart of the Mackenzie River flow?
From http://wateroffice.ec.gc.ca:

Real-Time Hydrometric Data Graph for ARCTIC RED RIVER NEAR THE MOUTH
But yes, the MacKenzie data stopped on the 9th.
« Last Edit: May 13, 2016, 05:05:20 PM by Tor Bejnar »
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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1161 on: May 13, 2016, 04:51:46 PM »
NSIDC extent still plummeting. The 1 day extent is now 1.27 million below 2012 and lowest on record by 590k, while the 5 day mean is 1.11 million below 2012 and lowest on record by 475k.

The 1 day extent is currently at 12.04 million. The current earliest date to drop below 12 million is May 25th, last year.
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Buddy

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1162 on: May 13, 2016, 05:25:40 PM »
Quote
The 1 day extent is currently at 12.04 million. The current earliest date to drop below 12 million is May 25th, last year.

So...we're about 2 weeks ahead on extent....only its worse than that, because the extent we DO HAVE is "crappier"/thinner/more fragmented.....and sitting in slightly warmer water, and slightly warmer air.

I'm no chef....but that doesn't sound like a good recipe for things to turn out well.

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AbruptSLR

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1163 on: May 13, 2016, 05:29:30 PM »
The first image shows that the AO is forecast to become significantly positive; which should set-up a dipole exporting ice out the Fram Strait, and if sustained, might draw-in warm Pacific Ocean water into the Arctic through the Bering Strait.

The second image shows that the sea ice extent in the Beaufort Sea continues to drop; which could set-up conditions for a GAC by late July or early August.

The third image shows the Nullschool SSTA & Wind Map for May 11 2016, showing very warm ocean temperatures in the Bering Sea area (that might eventually move north into the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas (given the right future wind patterns).
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Greenbelt

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1164 on: May 13, 2016, 05:48:06 PM »
After a time at 0c, Obuoy 14 is back below freezing. MODIFIED The May 11 camera image showed a nice coat of snow above the ice. Will watch for a later image to see if changes are noticeable.


« Last Edit: May 13, 2016, 06:16:49 PM by Greenbelt »

Okono

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1165 on: May 13, 2016, 06:04:25 PM »
The timestamp on that camera image would appear to be May 11, near the beginning of the event.
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Siffy

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1166 on: May 13, 2016, 06:15:55 PM »
The timestamp on that camera image would appear to be May 11, near the beginning of the event.

Yea the bouy hasn't given a new image of the snow cover post warming event.

Greenbelt

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1167 on: May 13, 2016, 06:17:34 PM »
The timestamp on that camera image would appear to be May 11, near the beginning of the event.

Thank you!  Modified above.

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1168 on: May 13, 2016, 06:35:35 PM »
That pic has rather appreciable tilt to the left. Is it people who put cameras are very... drunk, or is it already unstable due to ice melt? I'd prefer the former for some giggles, but i suspect that the Arctic ain't asking for my opinion on such things for when to weaken ice here and there... %)
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Siffy

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1169 on: May 13, 2016, 06:42:36 PM »
That pic has rather appreciable tilt to the left. Is it people who put cameras are very... drunk, or is it already unstable due to ice melt? I'd prefer the former for some giggles, but i suspect that the Arctic ain't asking for my opinion on such things for when to weaken ice here and there... %)

Pretty sure that bouy has been there for more than a year I think it's tilted due to the way the ice has melted and then refrozen.

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1170 on: May 13, 2016, 06:46:54 PM »
That pic has rather appreciable tilt to the left. Is it people who put cameras are very... drunk, or is it already unstable due to ice melt? I'd prefer the former for some giggles, but i suspect that the Arctic ain't asking for my opinion on such things for when to weaken ice here and there... %)

Pretty sure that bouy has been there for more than a year I think it's tilted due to the way the ice has melted and then refrozen.
Ah, it survived the previous season! I see. Hard to expect _that_ these days, but i'm sure happy for the sturdy fella. Good luck repeating such heroic deed this year, buoy! :)
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6roucho

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1171 on: May 13, 2016, 07:07:27 PM »
These buoys have an appealing, robotic quality in cam images.

ael

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1172 on: May 13, 2016, 07:22:50 PM »
Is it fair to say that if the melt is ahead of expectations by a week before the solstice, then this is the equivalent of adding two weeks to the melting season?  I.e one week before and one week after.

If so, what is the best way to model the effects of being *early* in addition to being *low*.

Nick_Naylor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1173 on: May 13, 2016, 07:25:13 PM »
These buoys have an appealing, robotic quality in cam images.

Robots are getting more sophisticated all the time. By 2025, robots will be winning Pulitzers, and by 2035, Nobels :)

jdallen

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1174 on: May 13, 2016, 09:06:17 PM »
Analyzing yesterday’s MODIS tiles, I see perfectly reflected that the Arctic sea ice is in bad shape for the time of the year.
To Werther's point, a snapshot of the southern Chukchi showing virtually complete coverage of the ice with melt, with the addition of showing that the arch above the Bering strait has shattered as well.

[edit: link using the params I used in EOSDIS: 

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_Brightness_Temp_Band31_Day(hidden,opacity=0.92,min=253.4,max=278,squash),Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2016-05-12&v=-2484718.94239392,1094445.3312843263,-1788398.94239392,1399085.3312843263

]
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1175 on: May 13, 2016, 09:17:18 PM »
Analyzing yesterday’s MODIS tiles, I see perfectly reflected that the Arctic sea ice is in bad shape for the time of the year.
To Werther's point, a snapshot of the southern Chukchi showing virtually complete coverage of the ice with melt, with the addition of showing that the arch above the Bering strait has shattered as well.

[edit: link using the params I used in EOSDIS: 

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_Brightness_Temp_Band31_Day(hidden,opacity=0.92,min=253.4,max=278,squash),Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2016-05-12&v=-2484718.94239392,1094445.3312843263,-1788398.94239392,1399085.3312843263

]

Pretty scary. Did this happen before so soon??
Looking at the concentration images and the weather prediction for the following seven days, if they realize, one starts to think if something will really stop the landslide this year.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1176 on: May 13, 2016, 09:17:49 PM »
The ECM has joined the GFS in going for an unrelentingly poor pattern for the sea ice, with high pressure never really leaving the Beaufort sea and a variable strength dipole throughout the run. This feeds consistently mild air into the Pacific side of the Arctic.
At the same time, we see high pressure building over western Russia, steering very mild air up over Kara and Laptev.

On a scale of 1-10, with 10 being as bad as things could realistically get for the sea ice at this time of year, we're looking at a 7 or 8 for much of the next week to 10 days.
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1177 on: May 13, 2016, 09:26:51 PM »
The ECM has joined the GFS in going for an unrelentingly poor pattern for the sea ice, with high pressure never really leaving the Beaufort sea and a variable strength dipole throughout the run. This feeds consistently mild air into the Pacific side of the Arctic.
At the same time, we see high pressure building over western Russia, steering very mild air up over Kara and Laptev.

On a scale of 1-10, with 10 being as bad as things could realistically get for the sea ice at this time of year, we're looking at a 7 or 8 for much of the next week to 10 days.
I would call the 12z EURO a 10/10 in terms of horribleness. Is it consistently the absolute worst, no, sometimes it is only miserable, but a frame like this speaks (or loses) volumes.


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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1178 on: May 13, 2016, 09:35:30 PM »
The ECM has joined the GFS in going for an unrelentingly poor pattern for the sea ice, with high pressure never really leaving the Beaufort sea and a variable strength dipole throughout the run. This feeds consistently mild air into the Pacific side of the Arctic.
At the same time, we see high pressure building over western Russia, steering very mild air up over Kara and Laptev.

On a scale of 1-10, with 10 being as bad as things could realistically get for the sea ice at this time of year, we're looking at a 7 or 8 for much of the next week to 10 days.
it's a brutal run
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=nhem&pkg=T850a&runtime=2016051312&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=16

animate the image and animate this as well:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=nhem&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2016051312&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=209

these are not cold 2014 style cyclones

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1179 on: May 13, 2016, 09:36:43 PM »
To add to jdallen worldview images, thin ice in the Beaufort sea has been melting not only at the open front but well inside the pack, between the big floes. Weeks in advance.

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1180 on: May 13, 2016, 10:48:48 PM »
Has anybody else been watching the Barrow webcam?  Crazy how many... puddles there are visible.  And out on the ice, at least nearer to teh shore, it definitely looks... melty on top.

http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu/webcam-uaf-barrow-seaice-images/current/image

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1181 on: May 13, 2016, 11:00:33 PM »
The ECM has joined the GFS in going for an unrelentingly poor pattern for the sea ice, with high pressure never really leaving the Beaufort sea and a variable strength dipole throughout the run. This feeds consistently mild air into the Pacific side of the Arctic.
At the same time, we see high pressure building over western Russia, steering very mild air up over Kara and Laptev.

On a scale of 1-10, with 10 being as bad as things could realistically get for the sea ice at this time of year, we're looking at a 7 or 8 for much of the next week to 10 days.
it's a brutal run
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=nhem&pkg=T850a&runtime=2016051312&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=16

animate the image and animate this as well:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=nhem&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2016051312&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=209

these are not cold 2014 style cyclones
I'll say.  By the 18th the model suggests we will have ~10C above normal temperatures over half the Arctic - primarily the Pacific side and Kara.  I'm leaning towards a 9 out of 10 for relative badness for the ice.  About the only thing I could think of worse would be wall to wall above freezing temperatures; that might be a good metric for a "10"...
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Okono

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1182 on: May 13, 2016, 11:03:11 PM »
It's fun to watch the veterans clap each other on the back with grim faces.  People are treating this melt season like a wake.  Not a shock, not the trail that ships leave, although you could be forgiven for asking.  The funereal flavor.

Let me ask a different off-color question: given the melt ponding and albedo momentum that have been acquired, which looks very likely to continue for at least the next 10 days, what would it take to slow down the season after that point?
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1183 on: May 13, 2016, 11:30:25 PM »
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It's fun to watch the veterans clap each other on the back with grim faces.  People are treating this melt season like a wake.  Not a shock, not the trail that ships leave, although you could be forgiven for asking.  The funereal flavor.

I'm a little slow.....so you'll have to excuse my analytical skills on deciphering your sentence above....but I WILL wade in when you mention "shock".  Because what we are witnessing THIS YEAR...should NOT be a shock to anyone who has looked closely at the BASIC PHYSICS involved.....as well as the basic FACTS over the past 35 years regarding the Arctic ice sheet.....and looked at the trends of AIR TEMPERATURE, ICE COVER, OCEAN TEMPERATURE, and ICE VOLUME.

I don't think most of the climate scientists who study this are shocked at this year so far.  Except for those working for oil and gas companies.....they ALL knew it was coming.  And there is more to come in future years.

In my view....the reaction of people should be, that they are P*SSED OFF.  Mad at people and organizations that have been LYING FOR DECADES.  The Joe Bastardi's, FOX News, Sean Hannity's of the world.

 

   
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werther

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1184 on: May 13, 2016, 11:57:05 PM »
Buddy, hi,
To me, it is not so much a matter of lies, but of sheer incapacity to understand the close relationship we as a species have with the ecosystems around us.
Ever since our ancestors started working stone tools, humankind began internalizing a false notion that these tools would put us in control.

Back to the forecasts, yes, they're pretty bad for the next 10 days at least. Expect further losses in the Beaufort, Chukchi and Kara Seas. Combined with losses in Labrador/Baffin region, extent could soon dip under 11 Mkm2.

OldLeatherneck

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1185 on: May 14, 2016, 12:07:03 AM »
It's fun to watch the veterans clap each other on the back with grim faces.  People are treating this melt season like a wake.  Not a shock, not the trail that ships leave, although you could be forgiven for asking.  The funereal flavor.

Let me ask a different off-color question: given the melt ponding and albedo momentum that have been acquired, which looks very likely to continue for at least the next 10 days, what would it take to slow down the season after that point?

The simple answer to your question is......Divine Intervention!!

Since that is not likely, it is quite probable that will be multiple near-century losses in area and extent in the next 10 days, leaving a great deal of open water as we approach the summer solstice.  Given that, it will take seriously bad weather conditions  for the remaining broken, fragile ice to stop melting at average or above average rates. I'll let others, more knowledgeable than I, define the meteorological conditions necessary to slow down this fast moving train-wreck!
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cesium62

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1186 on: May 14, 2016, 12:12:04 AM »
These buoys have an appealing, robotic quality in cam images.

Robots are getting more sophisticated all the time. By 2025, robots will be winning Pulitzers, and by 2035, Nobels :)

Are you using a linear projection, an exponential projection, or a Gompertz curve?

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1187 on: May 14, 2016, 12:40:24 AM »
It's fun to watch the veterans clap each other on the back with grim faces.  People are treating this melt season like a wake.  Not a shock, not the trail that ships leave, although you could be forgiven for asking.  The funereal flavor.

Let me ask a different off-color question: given the melt ponding and albedo momentum that have been acquired, which looks very likely to continue for at least the next 10 days, what would it take to slow down the season after that point?

Dull weather.
The problem is that the NH is so warm that I don't see that coming. A wave of early land snow melt is what can be seen, a two-week early spring with heat being amplified going North from every point along the NH.
But who knows. Maybe some negative feedback kicks in.



Okono

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1188 on: May 14, 2016, 01:26:09 AM »
The simple answer to your question is......Divine Intervention!!

I'll get the rain dance started now.  No, wait, that's not quite right, is it?  ;D

More seriously, I think the ultimate answer to the question does indeed lie in the weather.  If the albedo of the ice cap has been severely impaired between actual melting and meltponding, then we're reliant on the only other possible barrier: clouds.

I know that downwelling radiation, thermal energy from air and condensing water vapor in particular, and other things can radically alter the impact clouds have on the actual energy balance of the Arctic.  I don't know enough to know what sort of cloud is associated with which sort of system, or which weather to... uh... dance for.

Otherwise, it seems like this is going to start going almost geometric.  The more ice that has melted or meltponded, the more energy is absorbed.  The water stays water, but some of that energy goes to melting adjacent ice.  It smells exponential, and this is to say nothing of the forecast or the possibility of warm water intrusions or anomalous summer Fram export.
« Last Edit: May 14, 2016, 01:32:12 AM by Okono »
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icy voyeur

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1189 on: May 14, 2016, 02:19:53 AM »
The simple answer to your question is......Divine Intervention!!


My best approximation of divine intervention is some induction of turbulence that interrupts oceanic currents bringing warm water into the Arctic and inducing export through the Fram. Or if not technically turbulence, at least a reduction in both the import of relatively warmer water and ice export. Contrary-wise, anything that enhances both of those and I hear Jim Morrison singing The End.

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1190 on: May 14, 2016, 02:46:07 AM »


Arctic +5.08  :o :o

Maybe it will back off a little before then.
Is there also dark red over the Himalayas?

I think mountain climbing might be off again this year  :o
Nope, not dark-red, it's pink-purple-whatever ~-10...-20C anomaly is colored of.

Lots of dark-red in the Arctic, though, that's in fact most dark-red anomaly temperature map i've _ever_ seen so far. Pole, Alaska, Russia's Far East, central Greenland, much of Canada and lots of the continent south from Novaya Zemlya - all that is just massive together.

Time to talk how lots of forest fires will make a punch to lower albedo in the Arctic, too? Seeing that much Arctic lands going that high anomalies, and knowing about massive currently ongoing forest fires in 3 russian regions and forest fires in Canada which already caused evacuation of dozens thousands people several days ago, and then seeing this temperature anomaly map, i just think lots and lots soot will fly around, and thus lots of soot will end up darkening remaining snow/ice in the Arctic ocean in the next few months.
Sorry, don't know my geography that well,... So where is that dark red bit,... In China somewhere?
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Okono

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1191 on: May 14, 2016, 03:05:33 AM »
Sorry, don't know my geography that well,... So where is that dark red bit,... In China somewhere?

If you mean the portion north of Nepal and Bhutan, it's the Tibetan plateau down into the Taklamakan desert in Xinjiang.  One of the more fascinating and stunning corners of the Earth, if you ever get the chance.  But China's finest is Jiuzhaigou, 九寨沟.

We should get back on topic.  :-X
« Last Edit: May 14, 2016, 03:45:53 AM by Okono »
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1192 on: May 14, 2016, 03:56:53 AM »
Despite all the heat it should be noted that Eurasian snowcover is about 1SD above normal in terms of both volume and extent. North America is about normal. The graphs hide the skewed distribution, as some regions have become persistently snowier than normal (like Quebec and northern Siberia) whereas places like AK are torching.


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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1193 on: May 14, 2016, 04:00:40 AM »
Let me ask a different off-color question: given the melt ponding and albedo momentum that have been acquired, which looks very likely to continue for at least the next 10 days, what would it take to slow down the season after that point?
A full month of persistent light overcast (fog would probably do) and sub-zero temperatures over most of the Arctic.
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Csnavywx

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1194 on: May 14, 2016, 04:06:40 AM »
Based on the forecast for the next 7+ days, I project a large polynya to quickly open up in the western Chukchi and ESS shortly as a massive surge of persistent WAA (warm air advection) driven by a stout 564+ dam omega-block ridge building in over the region. Deep, long southerly fetch will also ensure that moist and mild (high theta-e) air is advected in over the ice pack, quickly melting the snow cover present there. If the follow-on block suggested by the GEFS and EPS verifies, we'll be looking at widespread melt ponding over most of the ESS and Chukchi and perhaps fairly deep into the basin in 7-10 days. A large, strong block is also being heavily signaled towards the Kara Sea region as well.

Csnavywx

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1195 on: May 14, 2016, 04:08:55 AM »
Let me ask a different off-color question: given the melt ponding and albedo momentum that have been acquired, which looks very likely to continue for at least the next 10 days, what would it take to slow down the season after that point?
A full month of persistent light overcast (fog would probably do) and sub-zero temperatures over most of the Arctic.

Depends on the type of fog. If it's advection fog due to strong WAA and moisture advection, then nasomuch. You might be familiar with this kind of fog on late winter or early spring nights when a snowpack seems to vanish almost overnight.

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1196 on: May 14, 2016, 04:11:11 AM »

Let me ask a different off-color question: given the melt ponding and albedo momentum that have been acquired, which looks very likely to continue for at least the next 10 days, what would it take to slow down the season after that point?

What melt pond momentum?  The damage so far has been open water in the Beuafort as winds push the ice away.  Surface has been too cold for melting except on very fringe.  That is now changing, but that happened same time last year, during which there were similar speculations of a major record breaking melt.  Which would have happened with the right weather for the rest of the season in my opinion.

While the beaufort is in a far worse state than any other year, the area from Chukchi to Laptev is all thicker than most other recent years.  At least according to PIOMAS.  As winds have consistently been pushing ice in that direction, and the heat has mostly been in Beaufort and Atlantic side I'd believe it.

A period of low pressure dominated weather would bring this melt season to a screeching halt, just as it has in other years.  2010 had a brutal start and it wasn't until July that a switch to cool weather occurred.  At the start of July 2010 we were 500k below the previous record, and the drop in PIOMAS volume was at the time quite jaw dropping.  By September we were 500k above the previous record.  Currently we are about 500k below previous record (ADS extent).

Current models show a delicate balance between a dipole type pattern with high pressure towards Canada and Low pressure towards the Atlantic.  The low pressure looks like its trying to move towards a more central position, and the lastest GFS has it reaching the north pole by day 10.  But with the low stretched as a trough towards Europe and a ridge across the Pacific side this does not result in a closed circulation to trap the cool air in the Arctic.  It will be interesting to see whether this forecast pattern changes or develops further in coming days to form a genuine cooler polar vortex, or whether it shifts away again and leaves the Pacific side ridge in charge.
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Okono

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1197 on: May 14, 2016, 04:17:27 AM »
What melt pond momentum?  The damage so far has been open water in the Beuafort as winds push the ice away.

Not all.

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1457.msg76341.html#msg76341

But I should have couched that more properly in what I expect to see after the prognosticated 10 days to come.  My apologies.
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Csnavywx

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1198 on: May 14, 2016, 04:21:34 AM »
May 2016 is looking considerably different from May 2015 so far:




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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1199 on: May 14, 2016, 07:55:26 AM »

Let me ask a different off-color question: given the melt ponding and albedo momentum that have been acquired, which looks very likely to continue for at least the next 10 days, what would it take to slow down the season after that point?

What melt pond momentum?  The damage so far has been open water in the Beuafort as winds push the ice away.  Surface has been too cold for melting except on very fringe. <snippage>

Reported elsewhere in the forums, that's changing rapidly with extensive melt ponding starting and visible across most of the Chukchi and Beaufort.  You can see it here on EOSDIS from the 12th.

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721%2CVIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor%28hidden%29%2CMODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor%28hidden%29%2CMODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor%28hidden%29%2CMODIS_Aqua_Brightness_Temp_Band31_Day%28hidden%2Copacity%3D0.92%2Cmin%3D253.4%2Cmax%3D278%2Csquash%29%2CReference_Labels%28hidden%29%2CReference_Features%28hidden%29%2CCoastlines&t=2016-05-12&v=-2484718.94239392%2C1094445.3312843263%2C-1788398.94239392%2C1399085.3312843263
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