Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: The 2016 melting season  (Read 1655242 times)

epiphyte

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 384
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 22
  • Likes Given: 18
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1200 on: May 14, 2016, 07:58:25 AM »
Let me ask a different off-color question: given the melt ponding and albedo momentum that have been acquired, which looks very likely to continue for at least the next 10 days, what would it take to slow down the season after that point?
A full month of persistent light overcast (fog would probably do) and sub-zero temperatures over most of the Arctic.

Over the past few years of watching I've got the impression that if there is fog, or even light overcast, forming over a mixture of open water and melting ice, along with high pressure/ light winds, (e.g. parts of the beaufort/western CAB right now), then when it clears, there's much less ice than there was before.

Acts5v29

  • New ice
  • Posts: 44
    • View Profile
    • worshipJehovah.org - not associated with any religion
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1201 on: May 14, 2016, 08:33:35 AM »
It's fun to watch the veterans clap each other on the back with grim faces.  People are treating this melt season like a wake.  Not a shock, not the trail that ships leave, although you could be forgiven for asking.  The funereal flavor.

Let me ask a different off-color question: given the melt ponding and albedo momentum that have been acquired, which looks very likely to continue for at least the next 10 days, what would it take to slow down the season after that point?

The simple answer to your question is......Divine Intervention!!

Since that is not likely, it is quite probable that will be multiple near-century losses in area and extent in the next 10 days, leaving a great deal of open water as we approach the summer solstice.  Given that, it will take seriously bad weather conditions  for the remaining broken, fragile ice to stop melting at average or above average rates. I'll let others, more knowledgeable than I, define the meteorological conditions necessary to slow down this fast moving train-wreck!

I wouldn't knock the notion of Divine Intervention in due course - but it won't come until we ask for it.

I agree with the comments about "shock" as these things were expected at some point, but even to those who foresaw them they are deeply unsettling.  What's really scary is that some seem not to be concerned at-all.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3178
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 391
  • Likes Given: 198
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1202 on: May 14, 2016, 08:34:50 AM »
Let me ask a different off-color question: given the melt ponding and albedo momentum that have been acquired, which looks very likely to continue for at least the next 10 days, what would it take to slow down the season after that point?
A full month of persistent light overcast (fog would probably do) and sub-zero temperatures over most of the Arctic.
Over the past few years of watching I've got the impression that if there is fog, or even light overcast, forming over a mixture of open water and melting ice, along with high pressure/ light winds, (e.g. parts of the beaufort/western CAB right now), then when it clears, there's much less ice than there was before.
True, but it depends on the type of fog.  Further, if you have low albedo (melt ponds or open water, or just dirty ice) *any* overcast will help reduce the total energy picked up by the system.

It's not likely to happen.
This space for Rent.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3178
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 391
  • Likes Given: 198
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1203 on: May 14, 2016, 08:50:23 AM »
It's fun to watch the veterans clap each other on the back with grim faces.  People are treating this melt season like a wake.  Not a shock, not the trail that ships leave, although you could be forgiven for asking.  The funereal flavor.

Let me ask a different off-color question: given the melt ponding and albedo momentum that have been acquired, which looks very likely to continue for at least the next 10 days, what would it take to slow down the season after that point?

The simple answer to your question is......Divine Intervention!!

Since that is not likely, it is quite probable that will be multiple near-century losses in area and extent in the next 10 days, leaving a great deal of open water as we approach the summer solstice.  Given that, it will take seriously bad weather conditions  for the remaining broken, fragile ice to stop melting at average or above average rates. I'll let others, more knowledgeable than I, define the meteorological conditions necessary to slow down this fast moving train-wreck!

I wouldn't knock the notion of Divine Intervention in due course - but it won't come until we ask for it.

I agree with the comments about "shock" as these things were expected at some point, but even to those who foresaw them they are deeply unsettling.  What's really scary is that some seem not to be concerned at-all.
With respect to your obvious faith, Acts5v29, quite a number of us here do not share it, nor feel divine intervention to be *anything* but unreliable.  I'd also hazard that no small number of your coreligionists have already asked for exactly the intervention of which you speak.

The solution is in the hands of and is the responsibility of humanity, not anyone's god.  I believe your book actually does say something to that effect, in a number of places in both the Old and New testament.  So, even by the tenets of your own creed, we can in no way depend on any sort of "outside" intervention. 

However, this is not a place to debate faith; that needs to move to a different topic entirely.

As to your shock comment, we are on the same page.
This space for Rent.

Watching_from_Canberra

  • New ice
  • Posts: 65
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1204 on: May 14, 2016, 09:48:35 AM »
Since that is not likely, it is quite probable that will be multiple near-century losses in area and extent in the next 10 days, leaving a great deal of open water as we approach the summer solstice.  Given that, it will take seriously bad weather conditions  for the remaining broken, fragile ice to stop melting at average or above average rates. I'll let others, more knowledgeable than I, define the meteorological conditions necessary to slow down this fast moving train-wreck!

Speaking of century losses, ADS is reporting a 120K drop to Fri 13th:
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/vishop-extent.html?N

Another 70 of those and the record low will be broken ..... on 23 July.

 

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1811
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 527
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1205 on: May 14, 2016, 09:53:13 AM »
The 00z euro is much warmer than yesterdays solutions. 

The Pacific side gets smacked around.

At this rate snow cover will be unprecedentedly gone by June 1st.
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

werther

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 747
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 31
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1206 on: May 14, 2016, 10:19:32 AM »
To let the rapid deterioration stall, something like this wouldn be necessary:



There is however low probability for a repeat of 2013. 'Winter Power' has been worst ever. The post-El Nino years that I've been looking at don't have a tendency towards '13. Mean temps worldwide and most in the NH are highest ever.

F.Tnioli

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 147
  • Likes Given: 36
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1207 on: May 14, 2016, 11:33:26 AM »
Quote
It's fun to watch the veterans clap each other on the back with grim faces.  People are treating this melt season like a wake.  Not a shock, not the trail that ships leave, although you could be forgiven for asking.  The funereal flavor.

I'm a little slow.....so you'll have to excuse my analytical skills on deciphering your sentence above....but I WILL wade in when you mention "shock".  Because what we are witnessing THIS YEAR...should NOT be a shock to anyone who has looked closely at the BASIC PHYSICS involved.....as well as the basic FACTS over the past 35 years regarding the Arctic ice sheet.....and looked at the trends of AIR TEMPERATURE, ICE COVER, OCEAN TEMPERATURE, and ICE VOLUME.

I don't think most of the climate scientists who study this are shocked at this year so far.  Except for those working for oil and gas companies.....they ALL knew it was coming.  And there is more to come in future years.

In my view....the reaction of people should be, that they are P*SSED OFF.  Mad at people and organizations that have been LYING FOR DECADES.  The Joe Bastardi's, FOX News, Sean Hannity's of the world.
To everyone: desire not to go hugely off-topic and desire to reply to such an emotional message with everything i have to say - clashed in me. The latter won. I apologize for going off-topic, but i really feel i should do it here...

I generally agree with earlier parts of your message, Buddy, but not with later parts.

Indeed, every honest-with-himself scientist who paid any proper attention to AGW in general and AA (arctic amplification) in particular, is well aware that blue ocean event is inevitable and near future. However, not every honest-with-himself scientist is willing to say it in any public space. There are reasons not to do so.

Namely, some are being paid to claim the opposite. Yet others are forced not to tell what they know on the subject, telling very different story instead. Sometimes in writing. Sometimes scientists with big names and in top-class documents. May i remind about this, for example? It is very difficult to accept that dozens high-tech models are all at fail due to their design errors. And it is very easy to believe that results which go into final IPCC reports are being "shaped" into very different data by the known process of "multiple stages of review".

Now, why this is being done - and on such a huge scale, - is not a trivial question. Nope, it's not only "oil money wants it, so it gets it done". There is much more to it. In fact it is a question of viability. Ok, let's say governments around the world, all the big corporations, all the public - will be provided with scientifically correct (not like the graph linked above in its IPCC-made part - not counting real observation) data about the state of Arctic as a whole, sea ice there in particular, global climate change in general. Will it lead to something good?

Naive person would definitely say "yes, of course, it will!". But i spent considerable amount of time trying to figure out _how_ exactly it would lead to something good, and what exactly that "something good" can be. The result so far is, i see indeed some good things coming up, easily, from such a "whole world must _know_ the truth about Arctic and climate change in general!" endeavor being complete, but also bad things - and in my opinion bad things are more than good.

We are talking about billions of poor getting MUCH worse quality of life as a result of such an endeavor - quite many of them literally dying as a result. We are talking about lots of business shutting down, without any viable alternative on the horizon. We are talking about corruption and economic "wars" which will certainly be made by many oil, gas and coal businesses present in an effort to survive as a business, - granted, there are such already, but it will intensify many-fold, and would be very destructive for economics all around the globe - lots of people losing their jobs, hundreds millions people scale.

But most importantly, we are talking about absense of any real alternative to fossils. Yes, there are alternative energy and motor fuel sources. But none of those can provide energy / fuel on the scale fossil fuels do, right now. Not even half of it. Impossible.

So the sad truth is, for next several decades at very least, mankind can NOT stop burning fossils on a scale same or similar to present date. Once one understands this (and i urge everyone here to get into all the corresponding papers and technical specifications to see for yourself!), - then very simple idea easily comes to mind: to educate whole mankind to stop burning fossil fuels ASAP - is in fact educating most people of the world to kill existing human civilization (once again, there is no _real_ alternative to fossils, and modern global civilization needs energy and fuels to function last time i checked), and ergo probably kill themselves in one quite slow, "noble", but rather certain way.

This is against human self-preservation instinct and thus it will be rejected.

Ergo, why tell them in the 1st place, then? We know it'll fail - me and others who gave the idea "let's tell everyone!" actual attention, and estimated consequences.

This is how your "the reaction of people should be, that they are P*SSED OFF.  Mad at people and organizations that have been LYING FOR DECADES.  The Joe Bastardi's, FOX News, Sean Hannity's of the world." - is IMHO entirely incorrect. Lying has its merits. Granted, lots of lying being done for simpler and "evil" (so to say) reasons (oil profits is rather simple thing, yep), but still i can't be pissed off by it, if it in fact helps mankind not to attempt things which obviously lead to prompt collapse of modern civilization.

So for now, in my opinion, the subject of climate change and Arctic sea ice loss in particular - is for specialists to discuss, in relatively low-profile spaces (this very forum being an example), but definitely not for mass media. Nor for high-attention IPCC public reports - sadly, lots of politicians in "developed" democracies are far from being technical minds, and can sign / initiate rather destructive initiatives without proper technical consideration made prior. Basically, it's like "don't tell people of the city that nearby nuclear reactor has safety problems, - tell nuclear physicists instead and let them do what they can, as long as the reactor does not do much harm to people of the city" thing.

Because there _may_ be a technofix. Ain't saying there is. Ain't saying i hope much. But something like Welsbach seeding temporary until ITER comes to fruit (_if_ it comes to fruit, of course)? You know, hope dies last. And noone can be blamed for that, me thinks.
« Last Edit: May 14, 2016, 12:00:04 PM by F.Tnioli »
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

Andreas T

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1143
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 23
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1208 on: May 14, 2016, 12:08:25 PM »
Let me ask a different off-color question: given the melt ponding and albedo momentum that have been acquired, which looks very likely to continue for at least the next 10 days, what would it take to slow down the season after that point?
A full month of persistent light overcast (fog would probably do) and sub-zero temperatures over most of the Arctic.
Over the past few years of watching I've got the impression that if there is fog, or even light overcast, forming over a mixture of open water and melting ice, along with high pressure/ light winds, (e.g. parts of the beaufort/western CAB right now), then when it clears, there's much less ice than there was before.
True, but it depends on the type of fog.  Further, if you have low albedo (melt ponds or open water, or just dirty ice) *any* overcast will help reduce the total energy picked up by the system.

It's not likely to happen.
light overcast scatters the incoming radiation from the sun down as well as up so that a large part of it still reaches the surface. It also radiates long wavelength IR down to the surface which looses energy by longwave IR continuously. This makes the statement "any overcast reduces energy picked up" wrong if that is taken as the net radiation balance. But yes the balance is affected by albedo, the higher the (short wave) albedo, the one which shows up in visible frequency images,  the more the energy balance gains from clearer sky.
 But I don't expect you to remember any of this (as usual) when you make your next very confident statement about this topic. :)
« Last Edit: May 14, 2016, 12:54:08 PM by Andreas T »

F.Tnioli

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 147
  • Likes Given: 36
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1209 on: May 14, 2016, 12:37:30 PM »
...
Let me ask a different off-color question: given the melt ponding and albedo momentum that have been acquired, which looks very likely to continue for at least the next 10 days, what would it take to slow down the season after that point?
Popular question, it seems. And i have an answer different from ones given so far. It is:

it would take large international fleet of jet aircraft (both re-directed passenger airliners and also military jet aircraft modified for the purpose) flying over the Arctic while spreading nanometer-scale particulate of certain compounds - ones which reflect in visible spectrum, but are much transparent in infra-red.

Do this enough, and you will create a "veil" over the Arctic able to do exactly what you requested - "slow down the season". It will function most effective for several months before it starts to thin out much (by gravity and winds moving much of it out of the Arctic's higher troposphere layers). This "veil" will reflect much of incoming sunlight (visible spectrum), thus decreasing amount of energy hitting ice/water surface. In the same time, it would not block (much) outcoming thermal radiation, which radiates energy (ultimately) from Earth surface to nearby space (the latter being some ~3 degrees Kelvin cold and very much empty - near-vacuum).

The technique is patented some ~25 years ago (by no other than HUGHES AIRCRAFT COMPANY, A CORP. OF DE, CALIFORNIA, as you can see), and i tend to refer to it as "Welsbach seeding".

P.S. I like your recent posts and the way you think and talk, Okono. It is a pleasure to read. Thank you.
« Last Edit: May 14, 2016, 12:49:42 PM by F.Tnioli »
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

Andreas T

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1143
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 23
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1210 on: May 14, 2016, 02:04:35 PM »
looking at the mackenzie delta in IR shows warmer water appearing which could be riverwater making its way below the still present ice or more opaque water being warmed more intensely near the surface by the sun.
My guess would be a combination of the two, riverwater carrying sediment but staying near the surface because its lack of salinity keeps density low, yet brightness temperature shows up above 0degC which would seem to indicate further warming?
The nighttime Aqua image (No2) of the 10th shows warm river water further south but by the time it makes its way to the delta I would expect that to change.
colour scale is squashed to 240 - 285K so the daytime Terra image cuts out where land surfaces are above range
http://go.nasa.gov/1qk6CKD

OldLeatherneck

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 554
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1211 on: May 14, 2016, 02:05:31 PM »
To further  respond to Okono's question about what it would take to slow down melting this year. For one, we would need May to be followed by dramatically reduced melting in June like it did in 2015.  How likely is this to happen this year??  If my memory serves me correctly, part of the slow down last year was due to the  lack of melt ponding in May.  Since that is  already occurring this year, we can rule that out as a reason for June to slow down.  I will let others comment as to what other weather patterns could significantly slow down losses in June and beyond.

I decided to compare historical IJIS Extent loss profiles for  the months of May and June.  I sorted each month from the highest loss to the lowest loss.  Highlighted in yellow are May 2013 and June 2015 as the  only post-2009 years to have some of the lowest losses on record for the respective month.  The other  thing that stands out to me is that the highest losses for each month are in recent years. 

Since May losses to date are averaging 70.9 Km2 per day we are on track to meet or exceed the record high  losses of 2010.  Almost certainly 2016 losses will be at least the 2nd highest on record.

While it is far too early to speculate as to whether June 2016 will match or exceed 2012's loss of over 2.4M Km2, I will be surprised it is much less than 2.0M Km2.

"Share Your Knowledge.  It's a Way to Achieve Immortality."  ......the Dalai Lama

6roucho

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 296
  • Finance geek
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1212 on: May 14, 2016, 03:06:27 PM »
...
Let me ask a different off-color question: given the melt ponding and albedo momentum that have been acquired, which looks very likely to continue for at least the next 10 days, what would it take to slow down the season after that point?
Popular question, it seems. And i have an answer different from ones given so far. It is:

it would take large international fleet of jet aircraft (both re-directed passenger airliners and also military jet aircraft modified for the purpose) flying over the Arctic while spreading nanometer-scale particulate of certain compounds - ones which reflect in visible spectrum, but are much transparent in infra-red.

Do this enough, and you will create a "veil" over the Arctic able to do exactly what you requested - "slow down the season". It will function most effective for several months before it starts to thin out much (by gravity and winds moving much of it out of the Arctic's higher troposphere layers). This "veil" will reflect much of incoming sunlight (visible spectrum), thus decreasing amount of energy hitting ice/water surface. In the same time, it would not block (much) outcoming thermal radiation, which radiates energy (ultimately) from Earth surface to nearby space (the latter being some ~3 degrees Kelvin cold and very much empty - near-vacuum).

The technique is patented some ~25 years ago (by no other than HUGHES AIRCRAFT COMPANY, A CORP. OF DE, CALIFORNIA, as you can see), and i tend to refer to it as "Welsbach seeding".

P.S. I like your recent posts and the way you think and talk, Okono. It is a pleasure to read. Thank you.
In the poker game of geo-engineering, nature has the law of unintended consequences and entropy as its hole cards.

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5835
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1983
  • Likes Given: 1737
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1213 on: May 14, 2016, 03:27:23 PM »
Just to point out the most natural negative feedback that could slow 2016 down is the easy ice running out while the difficult ice is still under wraps. For now it doesn't seem to happen, but it could.

charles_oil

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 324
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 32
  • Likes Given: 59
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1214 on: May 14, 2016, 03:29:46 PM »
Anyone know how the "warmer" ice may be affected ? 

Through much of the early months the temperature was consistently higher than normal, so presumably the core of the ice and will not be at the traditional temperature (though I iagine the bulk of the ocean water is little different.    Will the difference in the ice's thermal history tend to affect single / multiyear ice equally and cause it to melt out / break up  quicker = more century breaks etc?   

http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/ARCTIC_TAIR/index_80_t2m.html

Kate

  • New ice
  • Posts: 43
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 104
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1215 on: May 14, 2016, 03:35:30 PM »
The nullschool wind/temp/surface image looks devastating.
It's only May! 


crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2708
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 157
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1216 on: May 14, 2016, 03:52:31 PM »
Anyone know how the "warmer" ice may be affected ? 

Through much of the early months the temperature was consistently higher than normal, so presumably the core of the ice and will not be at the traditional temperature (though I iagine the bulk of the ocean water is little different.    Will the difference in the ice's thermal history tend to affect single / multiyear ice equally and cause it to melt out / break up  quicker = more century breaks etc?   

Ice water edge held at freezing point. Snow air boundary held near average air temp. A fairly steady temperature gradient between them. So if air was 4C warmer than normal, ice in centre only a couple of degrees warmer. I say only because effect of more ice is 80* that of ice temp difference. So mass of ice more important is my gut reaction.

Earlier loss of high albedo of dry snow could be important but I tend to think that depends far more on weather bringing in warm enough air than having much dependence on temperature of the ice. Maybe recent top of ice temperatures matter a little to this but doubt the older ice temperature history matters much. I could easily be wrong of course.

forkyfork

  • New ice
  • Posts: 43
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1217 on: May 14, 2016, 04:57:01 PM »
last night's euro continues the arctic blowtorch

A-Team

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2547
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 360
  • Likes Given: 29
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1218 on: May 14, 2016, 07:06:08 PM »
Still traveling ... but took a look below at what Landsat has to offer for early melt pond detection in the Beaufort. The first image shows Modis is not the way to go. However it appears that USGS is discarding Landsat imagery (!!!) that does not include some coastal feature (2nd image). The locator map (3rd image) provides some reference melt colors within the Mackenzie delta.

The animation shows the level of detail available on a floe that broke off the Yukon coast on May 11th. The first frame uses bands 234 at 30 m resolution, the second is re-processed in HSV to bring out anomalous areas including an intrusion that likely has very minimal freeboard, and the third shows this area at full band 8 15m resolution. Cracks can still be seen in the intrusion area but the ice may be slightly underwater. Sentinel 1A has good prospects for distinguishing salt from freshwater based on dielectric permittivity but as with Landsat, there will be long delays between orbital coverage.

Quote
seaicesailor on April 28 asked  "how can HYCOM catch such small river discharge?"
They are looking at sea surface salinity, or rather its dilution (to 26 from the usual 35 ppt) by sub-surface discharge of the Mackenzie freshwater which continues to a certain extent year round. It's hard to see the forecast because they dropped "140W" text right over the delta. Some early frames may utilize actual satellite data.
 http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticsss_nowcast_anim30d.gif
« Last Edit: May 14, 2016, 08:51:16 PM by A-Team »

ktonine

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 363
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1219 on: May 14, 2016, 07:36:55 PM »
There is a new paper that chronicles the effects of the gradually earlier arrival of spring in the arctic to one of it's spring/summer inhabitants; the Red Knot (Calidris canutus). What happens in the arctic does not stay in the arctic.

It's easy to forget that what we're watching has already had significant impacts -- pushing some species to the edge of extinction.

Andreas T

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1143
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 23
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1220 on: May 14, 2016, 08:24:43 PM »
Still traveling ... but took a look below at what Landsat has to offer for early melt pond detection in the Beaufort. The first image shows Modis is not the way to go. However it appears that USGS is discarding Landsat imagery (!!!) that does not include some coastal feature (2nd image). The locator map (3rd image) provides some reference melt colors within the Mackenzie delta.
...

going a bit further east there are SAR images available on polarview would this be a suitable area to test things out? The image attached is from 9. 4. also available is 21.4. and 3.5.
this is just a low resolution screen grab I took back in April but you'll know better than me where to get hold of the higher resolution.

Archimid

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3096
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 747
  • Likes Given: 195
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1221 on: May 14, 2016, 08:40:00 PM »
However it appears that USGS is discarding Landsat imagery (!!!) that does not include some coastal feature (2nd image).


 :'( :-X >:( >:( >:( >:( :'(
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

meddoc

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 262
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1222 on: May 14, 2016, 09:17:39 PM »
I guess we' re just before the storm.
Hint:
- Our Source was the New York Times...
- Dr. Strangelove, do we have anything like that in the Works?

magnamentis

  • Guest
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1223 on: May 14, 2016, 09:23:48 PM »
don't remember who was believing in snow but now even the last skeptic can see what's going on in kimmirut, Nunavut, Canada. at the entry of the fjord is some open water for days already. for those who remember that fjord was frozen till the middle of summer 2015 July if i remember correctly.
« Last Edit: May 14, 2016, 10:25:46 PM by magnamentis »

Andreas T

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1143
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 23
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1224 on: May 14, 2016, 09:44:12 PM »
If you look around on that site you can find images from the last month where you can see the snow fall 8 days ago and for the last year where you can see that ice persisted in that fiord into July 2015 and also that the mouth of the fiord is not visible from the web cam the dark line you spotted is a hillside.
https://www.lookr.com/lookout/1198520951-Kimmirut#action-play-year

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1225 on: May 14, 2016, 10:17:14 PM »

But most importantly, we are talking about absense of any real alternative to fossils. Yes, there are alternative energy and motor fuel sources. But none of those can provide energy / fuel on the scale fossil fuels do, right now. Not even half of it. Impossible.

So the sad truth is, for next several decades at very least, mankind can NOT stop burning fossils on a scale same or similar to present date.



This is 100% inaccurate.  I'd be glad to discuss this in a more appropriate thread.

magnamentis

  • Guest
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1226 on: May 14, 2016, 10:30:00 PM »
If you look around on that site you can find images from the last month where you can see the snow fall 8 days ago and for the last year where you can see that ice persisted in that fiord into July 2015 and also that the mouth of the fiord is not visible from the web cam the dark line you spotted is a hillside.
https://www.lookr.com/lookout/1198520951-Kimmirut#action-play-year

i did not say one can see the open see, i just said there is open water, one can see that in satellite images.
the snowfall was 1.3mm in "rain" equivalent and that blueish tint is and was always ice. really don't know what your issue is with that repeatedly? there was no significant snowfall and snow at the edges was white not blueish at all times. this is getting boring if one cannot post such an innocent image and make a comment without attracting permanent nay-sayers who later cannot admit their error. that july thingy i mentioned hence no need to repeat like it wasn't mentioned.

A-Team

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2547
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 360
  • Likes Given: 29
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1227 on: May 14, 2016, 10:39:35 PM »
Quote
there are SAR images available on polarview would this be a suitable area to test things out? where to get hold of the higher resolution?
That broken-down incompetent Copernicus hub has them. The S1A images get through the clouds and have decent resolution and two polarizations allowing RGb color, though the HH is probably enough. The animations show them 'as is' and at full resolution for the indicated region.

Also I noticed today that EarthExplorer is finally serving S2A, with a fairly decent 5MB geotiff preview file. Still jpeg2000 on the original L1C tile so the amazon site is better. We should try to do more with the band 8 ... "4 bands at 10 meter: blue (490 nm), green (560 nm), red (665 nm), and near-infrared (842 nm)" on the next cloud-free day if there ever is one.

Watching_from_Canberra

  • New ice
  • Posts: 65
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1228 on: May 14, 2016, 10:59:03 PM »
BTW, things are getting darker, ice in Kimmirut gets a darker blue tint every day and barrows snow is almost invisible underneath the soot.

It was me who responded to your earlier message in another thread that we were seeing snow, not ice.  When the sun was high, it was pure white, not blue, and there were also people out and-about on the ice leaving fresh tracks in the snow.

Today's image is quite different.  Today, it's clearly not fresh snow.  I don't doubt it's melting at all, but on the 11th I believe we were just looking at fresh snow.  Different story today.

Ice Shieldz

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 249
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 62
  • Likes Given: 56
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1229 on: May 15, 2016, 12:47:21 AM »
Interesting how the CAA fast ice eventually cracks because of this southerly movement of the ice pack (over last 5 days).  Also the ice pack seems to "bounce" back north after the fast ice cracks.
« Last Edit: May 15, 2016, 01:01:45 AM by Ice Shieldz »

charles_oil

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 324
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 32
  • Likes Given: 59
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1230 on: May 15, 2016, 02:08:48 AM »
The NSIDC Chartic graphs are back in operation, although with provisional data since the start of April !

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

A-Team

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2547
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 360
  • Likes Given: 29
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1231 on: May 15, 2016, 02:43:49 AM »
I collected some comical quotes from the blog and forum. These posts are more predictable than the ice -- their future versions can be reliably appended to the hypothetical NSIDC graph extension below. Feel free to make your own edits to this list.

- 01  - “I’ve seen a lot of years start out like this, then fizzle.”
- 02  - “The weather pattern typically changes in spring favoring ice retention.”
- 03  - “Instrument error without a doubt or just normal variation in a chaotic system.”
- 04  - “NSIDC says the F18 satellite may or may not be calibrated/trustworthy.”
- 05  - “Extent is misleading, should be looking at volume.”
- 06  - “It’s too early in the season to say anything. Needs to happen 5 years in a row to count.”
- 07  - “Four standard deviations means little, weather isn’t normally distributed.”
- 08  - “June often brings a magical dipole oscillation index favoring ice retention.”
- 09  - “I’m seeing a lot of clouds in the next three months forecast.”
- 10  - “Insolation peaked back at the solstice, it’s re-freezing from here on out.”
- 11  - “Quite a few people on this forum are consistent alarmists, wrong every year.”
- 12  - “It would take another Great Arctic Cyclone to hit a record, historically implausible.”
- 13  - “Expect a rebound from GAC2016 shortly, that ice would have melted out anyway.”
- 14  - "Extent is irrelevant (except for albedo collapse), should be looking at area.”
- 15  - "November re-freeze is late and weak but within the bounds of natural variation.”
- 16  - “There were years like this during the PETM and nothing happened.”
- 17  - “Mobilize all the world’s aircraft to inject pixie dust into stratosphere, problem solved.”
- 18  - “I’m not too concerned, the Mars colony is a done deal. There's room for everyone.”
« Last Edit: May 15, 2016, 03:00:08 PM by A-Team »

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18789
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2048
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1232 on: May 15, 2016, 02:56:52 AM »
Interesting how the CAA fast ice eventually cracks because of this southerly movement of the ice pack (over last 5 days).  Also the ice pack seems to "bounce" back north after the fast ice cracks.


Per Espen your images shows that: "The ice shelfs north of Ellesmere Island Ward Hunt etc. is being attacked by the motion of the Beaufort Gyre"
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

ktonine

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 363
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1233 on: May 15, 2016, 02:58:18 AM »
I collected some comical quotes from the blog and forum....

- 11.5 - “DMI N80 temperatures are normal for this time of year.”

A-Team

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2547
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 360
  • Likes Given: 29
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1234 on: May 15, 2016, 03:09:13 AM »
Quote
- 11.5 - “DMI N80 temperatures are normal for this time of year.”
That's a good one! I forget to mention that "the air just above the ice is holding steady at 0º, nothing will melt at that temperature."
« Last Edit: May 15, 2016, 03:14:46 AM by A-Team »

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3448
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 639
  • Likes Given: 321
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1235 on: May 15, 2016, 04:22:30 AM »
To add to A-Team's list - here is a trio that often go together (from memory):
1) It's gonna get torched in 240 hours!
2) That's not professional language.
3) I really like that people have personality here.

Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

DavidR

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 732
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 32
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1236 on: May 15, 2016, 04:26:09 AM »
I collected some comical quotes from the blog and forum. These posts are more predictable than the ice -- their future versions can be reliably appended to the hypothetical NSIDC graph extension below. Feel free to make your own edits to this list.
That  graph  looks pretty accurate out to May 15, is there something you aren't telling us!
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

A-Team

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2547
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 360
  • Likes Given: 29
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1237 on: May 15, 2016, 05:47:47 AM »
Quote
graph  looks pretty accurate out to May 15, is there something you aren't telling us!
Indeed there is:

"This just means 2017-18 have to be rebound years. Things always returns to their trend line, it follows from gomperzian statistics."

"The authoritative article on the cryosphere's future was published some years back. Don't recall authors or model assumptions. Article was paywalled, haven't read it yet myself."

"You people are a bunch of amateurs, did not attend the proper schools (except A-Team), not properly credentialed Polar Scientists, therefore are wrong about everything."

"Not 2 b believed. tl;dr my 2¢ much better forums than this can be found on the web sorry misplaced link. +1 LOL :P"

"It matters not that the IPCC was dead wrong about everything, what matters is that they reached consensus and did not rattle markets. Still time to pledge action by 2050."

"Just barely have time to post another snotty comment, I've been told by well-known scientists not to read this forum. Somewhat OT so let's pursue elsewhere."

"Still time to lay a plastic liner down on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf bottom to keep the methane in. If the methane can't reach the surface, it won't overwhelm the hydroxyl radicals. Similarly, cover the tundra and cork the cows."
« Last Edit: May 15, 2016, 05:57:02 AM by A-Team »

jai mitchell

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2076
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 114
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1238 on: May 15, 2016, 05:52:54 AM »
Let me ask a different off-color question: given the melt ponding and albedo momentum that have been acquired, which looks very likely to continue for at least the next 10 days, what would it take to slow down the season after that point?


This: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna_index_mrf.shtml

A strong and persistent negative Pacific North American Index was the signature of the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge that forced water vapor up into the arctic in the early melt seasons of 2013 and 2014, causing cloud, snow and fog that reduced temperatures and melt  pond formation. 

This is +48 hours:  http://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/05/17/0300Z/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/overlay=relative_humidity/equirectangular=-175.92,71.67,1193

Still, this is not nearly as much water vapor that was introduced during the previous cooler years so I don't think it will do it, not quite.

Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

bbr2314

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1817
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 166
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1239 on: May 15, 2016, 06:03:06 AM »
I noticed a brown smudginess to the latest MODIS images and enhanced the contrast in photoshop. The wildfires in northern Siberia are belching immense plumes of smoke that are now being entrained into the Arctic Ocean. It corresponds to the warm anomalies over the Arctic on the GFS as well.


werther

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 747
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 31
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1240 on: May 15, 2016, 10:27:16 AM »
This is about the worst state of the Pacific side I have seen:



At least, for the time of the year (14th of May). And since I started closely watching those MODIS tiles in '10.

The red line is the boundary between Beaufort-Chukchi-ES Sea and the CAB.

Contrary to my remarks yesterday, surface melt didn’t completely vanish through the wind direction shift over the Chukchi. There’s still a blue hue visible. Most clear on all fast-ice against Alaska and Canada.

In the ESS, right hand part, the ice isn’t as solid as supposed by some posters. Look at the cracking West of Wrangel Island. ‘Winter Power’ was +5-+6 dC anomalously weak out there, too. Only more to the West, on the continental shelf, it fell to +2-+3 dC.

werther

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 747
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 31
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1241 on: May 15, 2016, 11:03:42 AM »
Another observation on the Pacific Side oversight in my post above. The Gyre-inspired cracking from March-May has shaped up the Pacific side of the CAB in a fashion usually seen in the worst years of melting. It already looks like scenes normal for end of June.
Imagine the Chukchi melting out as usual, but early. Within the CAB-boundary this cracked pattern would fade into the milky slush. Much like in July '12.
If this weather pattern continues, that stage could be reached far sooner than ever.
Like the suggestions on the IJIS-thread. Below 10 Mkm2 around first of June.

I'm too experienced to take a bet on that. But there's a big possibility.

seaicesailor

  • Guest
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1242 on: May 15, 2016, 12:28:20 PM »
[...]
Contrary to my remarks yesterday, surface melt didn’t completely vanish through the wind direction shift over the Chukchi. There’s still a blue hue visible. Most clear on all fast-ice against Alaska and Canada.

In the ESS, right hand part, the ice isn’t as solid as supposed by some posters. Look at the cracking West of Wrangel Island. ‘Winter Power’ was +5-+6 dC anomalously weak out there, too. Only more to the West, on the continental shelf, it fell to +2-+3 dC.
That was great analysis Wherther.
I am one of those posters that believe the ice at CAB-ESS "axis" is in pretty good shape. Let me quote myself in April 6,

I should look for a map of overall drift of the past months, but just this as an illustrative example.
Here's average sea ice drift for February, sis:

[...]  where streamlines converge with no (drift) vector (modulus) change, or speed along the streamlines decelerate abruptly, there is compression. That seems to be ESS in this map, and very strong [...]
The ice transported out of Beaufort does not go to Fram just like that. Much of it ends up compressed and accumulated in CAB and ESS. I also speculate the ESS ice is well blanketed given the level of snow in adjacent lands. Granted that it is FYI mostly, and that it can be cracked in smaller floes just as MYI.
Further into the Pacific side of the CAB, we have 2015F. The "wetting" at Beaufort, persistent at Chukchi, has signified 10 cm of snow over 204 cm of ice at this buoy; not the average piece of cake.
As much as I am in shock because this season is weeks in advance, I think at some moment extent will slow down and 2012 will catch up because of this. But who knows, I had expected that to be happening now. So much for the spring bottleneck of previous years.

In any case, ESS thickness was similar in 2012 looking at last comparisons of Piomas by Wipneus; ESS ice resisted a lot in 2012 indeed, but the GAC made a mess of it, an island of melting ice IIRC.
« Last Edit: May 15, 2016, 12:50:42 PM by seaicesailor »

Laurent

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2537
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 8
  • Likes Given: 34
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1243 on: May 15, 2016, 01:15:07 PM »
The whole beaufort is wrecked...
start 1st to 15th

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5835
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1983
  • Likes Given: 1737
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1244 on: May 15, 2016, 01:35:34 PM »
The whole beaufort is wrecked...
start 1st to 15th

It all looks normal except for the name of the month  ???

OldLeatherneck

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 554
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1245 on: May 15, 2016, 02:10:28 PM »
My addition to A-Team's List

"I keep googling and have yet to find the product specifications or unit pricing data for an Ekman Pump"
"Share Your Knowledge.  It's a Way to Achieve Immortality."  ......the Dalai Lama

seaicesailor

  • Guest
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1246 on: May 15, 2016, 02:38:55 PM »
The whole beaufort is wrecked...
start 1st to 15th

The animation clearly shows the persistent layer of fog or light cloud over the ice that was mentioned before.
Perhaps gloomy but not completely cloudy like what the Barrow cam shows right now ...
« Last Edit: May 15, 2016, 02:45:35 PM by seaicesailor »

6roucho

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 296
  • Finance geek
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1247 on: May 15, 2016, 03:47:22 PM »
My addition to A-Team's List

"I keep googling and have yet to find the product specifications or unit pricing data for an Ekman Pump"
Boom-Tish!

Quantum

  • New ice
  • Posts: 99
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1248 on: May 15, 2016, 04:07:21 PM »
Seems like the burden is being taken of the Beaufort and the Canadian Chukchi to the Siberian Chukchi and the Laptev. By no means great, but I think its a better option than the Beaufort continuing to melt away; the fast ice still seems more or less intact - I would guess once that goes it will be much easier to heat up the open water.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17747
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 829
  • Likes Given: 309
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1249 on: May 15, 2016, 04:32:56 PM »
Robert Scribbler blog:

Polar Heatwave Digs in as Arctic Sea Ice Crashes — Blue Ocean Event Looking More and More Likely
Quote
Never-Before Seen Conditions Consistent With Human-Forced Climate Change

By May 20, most of the Arctic Ocean is predicted to see near-freezing or above-freezing temperatures. Readings warm enough to promote surface melt of the ice pretty much everywhere and across all basins. Readings that for the entire Arctic region above 66 North are predicted to be 5 C above average. That is one hell of an anomaly. Something that would be odd if we saw it during January (when climate change related seasonal warming has typically taken greater hold). But for May this is absolutely outlandishly hot.
https://robertscribbler.com
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.