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AbruptSLR

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1250 on: May 15, 2016, 04:57:13 PM »
A strong and persistent negative Pacific North American Index was the signature of the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge that forced water vapor up into the arctic in the early melt seasons of 2013 and 2014, causing cloud, snow and fog that reduced temperatures and melt  pond formation. 

The attached PNA forecast indicates that the coming period of negative PNA should overlay the coming period of positive AO; which should help force water vapor from the Pacific into the Artic for the next couple of weeks.
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peterlvmeng

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1251 on: May 15, 2016, 05:48:55 PM »
I found an interesting thing by watching the map of sea ice drift and its concentration.Usually(not only this year), the wind are likely to push the sea ice in the East Siberian to the Beaufort sea. The sea ice melting in the Beaufort seems slow down during these two days caused by that push. However, the original sea ice in the Beaufort sea also push southward and broke down, finally completely melt out. I mean the slow down of the extent area is caused by the expanding of the sea ice area(expanding the sea ice), and ultimately make the whole sea ice thinner and prone to be melt out.

Sourabh

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1252 on: May 15, 2016, 06:03:34 PM »
I was going through old posts on Neven's blog. I was particularly interested in June 2012 and June 2015, as 2015 stalled and 2012 dropped rapidly. One of the common factors was melt ponds (measured by CAPIE). It would be interesting to know current state of CAPIE to know about potential of this year's melting momentum.

Is there anyway to find that out, as CT area updates are no longer available.

crandles

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1253 on: May 15, 2016, 06:25:39 PM »
see these links to 2016 sea ice area and extent data thread:

Time for an uptick in my shadow CT-area calculation:

day  CT-date       NH               SH                Global
Thu 2016.3562  -39.3 10.831096 +143.9  7.553953  +104.6 18.385049
Fri 2016.3589 -182.2 10.648849  +42.4  7.596343  -139.9 18.245192
Sat 2016.3616 -162.7 10.486125  +52.7  7.649055  -110.0 18.135180
Sun 2016.3644  -67.5 10.418575  +47.2  7.696227   -20.4 18.114802
Mon 2016.3671  +29.2 10.447775 +152.6  7.848805  +181.8 18.296580


The attached delta map shows that yesterday's concentration drop is today's recovery.

Shadow NSIDC extent dropped -28k. Mostly Barents with increases in Baffin and Sea of Okhotsk.

also

I put something together here. Will that do for you?

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/data/AreaCalculatedLikeCryosphereToday.txt

A-Team

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1254 on: May 15, 2016, 06:41:36 PM »
"Don't count on any ice melting from Ekman transport -- he was just a day trader running pump-and-dump schemes, brokered by a guy named Coriolis. It all depended on which way regulatory winds were blowing. They took most summers off."

Quote
melt ponds (measured by CAPIE).  current state of CAPIE  this year's melting momentum.  Is there anyway to find that out?
Seems like there should be an app for that (layer choice or overlay combo) within Worldview. I couldn't get any action out of "Freeze/Thaw (L3, Active, Radar, SMAP)" however.

The animation below shows 15 days of another option there, microwave temperature (sea ice brightness temperature 6km resolution 89V vertical polarization GCOM-W1/AMSR2). There is a peculiar surge of warmth through the Bering Strait during May 9-12 according to this sensor.

A couple of technical points: the WorldView palette squeeze is quite useful in providing better detail if your attribute has makes limited use of the original palette over the date range considered but both ends have to be set by trial and error. But the snapshot feature can't display the new palette and defaults back to square one, so it is back to cropping and resizing screenshots.
« Last Edit: May 15, 2016, 07:12:15 PM by A-Team »

Acts5v29

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1255 on: May 15, 2016, 06:54:26 PM »
It's fun to watch the veterans clap each other on the back with grim faces.  People are treating this melt season like a wake.  Not a shock, not the trail that ships leave, although you could be forgiven for asking.  The funereal flavor.

Let me ask a different off-color question: given the melt ponding and albedo momentum that have been acquired, which looks very likely to continue for at least the next 10 days, what would it take to slow down the season after that point?

The simple answer to your question is......Divine Intervention!!

Since that is not likely, it is quite probable that will be multiple near-century losses in area and extent in the next 10 days, leaving a great deal of open water as we approach the summer solstice.  Given that, it will take seriously bad weather conditions  for the remaining broken, fragile ice to stop melting at average or above average rates. I'll let others, more knowledgeable than I, define the meteorological conditions necessary to slow down this fast moving train-wreck!

I wouldn't knock the notion of Divine Intervention in due course - but it won't come until we ask for it.

I agree with the comments about "shock" as these things were expected at some point, but even to those who foresaw them they are deeply unsettling.  What's really scary is that some seem not to be concerned at-all.
With respect to your obvious faith, Acts5v29, quite a number of us here do not share it, nor feel divine intervention to be *anything* but unreliable.  I'd also hazard that no small number of your coreligionists have already asked for exactly the intervention of which you speak.

The solution is in the hands of and is the responsibility of humanity, not anyone's god.  I believe your book actually does say something to that effect, in a number of places in both the Old and New testament.  So, even by the tenets of your own creed, we can in no way depend on any sort of "outside" intervention. 

However, this is not a place to debate faith; that needs to move to a different topic entirely.

As to your shock comment, we are on the same page.

I can respect you disbelief.  I would say that there is an important context rather than a simple plea from people - and that the discussion belongs elsewhere, so I'm happy to leave it.

Since you and so many see this as our responsibility (as do I) I wish the decision makers would share our common view.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1256 on: May 15, 2016, 06:57:22 PM »
Finally somebody is able to produce visualization of the "blowtorches"
Hell of an animation A Team thank you.

Nick_Naylor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1257 on: May 15, 2016, 07:09:33 PM »

But most importantly, we are talking about absense of any real alternative to fossils. Yes, there are alternative energy and motor fuel sources. But none of those can provide energy / fuel on the scale fossil fuels do, right now. Not even half of it. Impossible.

So the sad truth is, for next several decades at very least, mankind can NOT stop burning fossils on a scale same or similar to present date.



This is 100% inaccurate.  I'd be glad to discuss this in a more appropriate thread.
Likewise. If all the fossil fuels disappeared tomorrow, then after a sharp economic collapse, which we probably need to have anyway, we'd mobilise renewables very quickly indeed. The main difference, apart from a brighter future, is that different people would be rich.

Please move to appropriate thread - this topic could get heated quickly, and I'm not sure what's left of the sea ice would survive it.  :o

A-Team

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1258 on: May 15, 2016, 07:39:12 PM »
Quote
Finally a visualization of the "blowtorches"
There is a whole lot more we need to explore further with WorldView. Some people there at NASA did a fabulous bit of programming and database populating.

Below is a quickie animation of nullschool over the data range of the purported blowtorch. Indeed it did get rather toasty there (+5.3ºC ) right on the dates bracketing the Bering Strait microwave sea ice temperature surge. I don't believe the sensor sees air temperatures to any extent, rather just thermal emission from the ice surface.

If someone is up to re-doing this as a contour map (see earlier post for method), that would be a big improvement over just picking a single point (green circle).

I'm on the move again, reduced to an iPhone 4S screen.
« Last Edit: May 15, 2016, 07:46:59 PM by A-Team »

werther

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1259 on: May 15, 2016, 09:08:48 PM »
The new forecasts by ECMWF do not point at a return to the ‘climo’:


ECMWF 15052016 +240h

And although not as spectacular as during winter, positive temp ano’s still characterize May until now:



OldLeatherneck

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1260 on: May 15, 2016, 09:47:20 PM »
For A-Team's List:

"Anyone who predicts that the 2016 Chicago Cubs will win the World Series for the first time since 1907 can NOT be trusted to reliably predict future ice losses in the Arctic Ocean".

UH-OH!  I Might as well stop making charts, table and projections!!
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Laurent

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1261 on: May 15, 2016, 09:47:41 PM »

Quantum

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1262 on: May 15, 2016, 10:11:11 PM »
Quote
Finally a visualization of the "blowtorches"
There is a whole lot more we need to explore further with WorldView. Some people there at NASA did a fabulous bit of programming and database populating.

Below is a quickie animation of nullschool over the data range of the purported blowtorch. Indeed it did get rather toasty there (+5.3ºC ) right on the dates bracketing the Bering Strait microwave sea ice temperature surge. I don't believe the sensor sees air temperatures to any extent, rather just thermal emission from the ice surface.

If someone is up to re-doing this as a contour map (see earlier post for method), that would be a big improvement over just picking a single point (green circle).

I'm on the move again, reduced to an iPhone 4S screen.
Is nullschool a representation of current surface temperatures? It says data-source: GFS.

Csnavywx

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1263 on: May 15, 2016, 10:16:38 PM »
Careful study of today's Modis reveals a quick erosion of snow cover and rapid melt ponding on top of lakes just inland from the ESS and rivers of meltwater beginning to push towards the coast. I would expect that to expand rapidly from here. The last couple of frames on A-Team's animation shows the leading edge of that warm front emerging over the Arctic Ocean quite well.

A-Team

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1264 on: May 15, 2016, 11:51:45 PM »
Quote
Is nullschool a representation of current surface temperatures? It says data-source: GFS.
There is more information in the nullschool 'About' page. Says something about GFS updating every 3 hours (less for some other displays). They go forward about 5 days and backward a long long ways. I'm not sure whether they archive old GFS forecasts or stubbing in a reanalysis.

For 'current' time, there is a choice between UTC and 'local' time. For the latter, it seems to look up the longitude/time zone of my local IP address (with Geo IP?), not that of my ISP nor that of the green location circle. As far as synchronizing precisely with timestamps on Modis tiles, that could be really problematic.

There is also a nullschool community facebook page that is potentially a huge time-waster though today -- in between rude & ignorant know-it-all teenage boys -- it has someone posting a potentially interesting time series of carbon monoxide from the Ft McMurray fire and another the 3-hr precipitation over the North Pacific. 3HPA is new, it shows the forecasted amount of water (as rain, sleet, or snow) falling on the surface over the next three hours. Supposedly.

Nullschool strikes me as an extraordinary contribution for an individual though I've seen Serious Meteorologists pooh-pooh it -- but like we've seen so many times on the forums -- they've temporarily misplaced the link to something better.

http://earth.nullschool.net/about.html
https://www.facebook.com/EarthWindMap

A couple of people above are reporting reflectance-diminishing particulates, nullschool has a display on that too, the definition and relevance of the units are a bit unclear and seem to refer to sunlight-adsorbing extinction coefficient in air rather than its depositional effect on albedo.

For what it is worth, the two frame animation shows the 3 hour precip at a randomly chosen site in the Arctic Ocean with the temperature following. Seems like it would be snow or freezing rain at the indicated temperature.
« Last Edit: May 16, 2016, 12:37:08 AM by A-Team »

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1265 on: May 16, 2016, 12:19:46 AM »
ECMWF 15052016 +240h

Excuse my ignorance, what is the 'climo'?

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1266 on: May 16, 2016, 12:28:00 AM »
This appears to be happening,

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CameraMan

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1267 on: May 16, 2016, 01:35:29 AM »
This appears to be happening,

It sure does.

Villabolo

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1268 on: May 16, 2016, 02:05:33 AM »
From NOAA:

Quote
La Niña is favored to develop during the Northern Hemisphere summer 2016, with about a 75% chance of La Nina during the fall and winter 2016-17.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

Is this likely to have an impact on the Arctic icecap's Minima come September?

crandles

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1269 on: May 16, 2016, 02:12:47 AM »
Excuse my ignorance, what is the 'climo'?
climatology - usually 30 year average

DavidR

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1270 on: May 16, 2016, 03:17:04 AM »
From NOAA:

Quote
La Niña is favored to develop during the Northern Hemisphere summer 2016, with about a 75% chance of La Nina during the fall and winter 2016-17.

Is this likely to have an impact on the Arctic icecap's Minima come September?
None at all. 

Typically El Ninos and La Ninas build from April to about November. Globally their peak effect is in the Dec - Mar period after that and their impact on the Arctic may be delayed by as much as a year.  There have been record Arctic extent lows in the year after the El Nino has finished.  This would suggest the possibility of a record low next year. 
« Last Edit: May 16, 2016, 02:36:27 PM by DavidR »
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

magnamentis

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1271 on: May 16, 2016, 03:19:08 AM »
the term pond(s) would be a huge understatement  ;) 8)

werther

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1272 on: May 16, 2016, 06:13:51 AM »
Yesterday a slight dip in the daily extent loss. Will pick up again today and next days in the Eastern Sib Sea (wait for first windblown polynia's West of Wrangel). Also Southern winds between Svalbard and Frantsa Yosefa. And compaction again in the Kara Sea.

Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1273 on: May 16, 2016, 07:20:47 AM »
This appears to be happening,

I imagine we'll be seeing a good bit more of this swift export south and east of corner alpha given the strength, configuration and persistence of the dipole.
« Last Edit: May 16, 2016, 09:56:28 AM by Ice Shieldz »

philiponfire

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1274 on: May 16, 2016, 08:11:00 AM »
MASIE reports a huge 450,000 drop in extent in the last three days. summer is coming.

jdallen

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1275 on: May 16, 2016, 08:52:44 AM »
the term pond(s) would be a huge understatement  ;) 8)
Ponds?  What Ponds?  Looks like the ice has shattered.
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nukefix

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1276 on: May 16, 2016, 09:30:57 AM »
the term pond(s) would be a huge understatement  ;) 8)
Ponds?  What Ponds?  Looks like the ice has shattered.
To me it looks like the water on top of the ice is reflecting the hill behind it. I don't think any force has shattered the ice yet.

jdallen

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1277 on: May 16, 2016, 09:42:00 AM »
the term pond(s) would be a huge understatement  ;) 8)
Ponds?  What Ponds?  Looks like the ice has shattered.
To me it looks like the water on top of the ice is reflecting the hill behind it. I don't think any force has shattered the ice yet.
Ah, there we are. I believe you are right. 
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philiponfire

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1278 on: May 16, 2016, 10:16:38 AM »
AND if we look at MASIE for 2012 05 15 and then look at 2016 05 15 the difference is 882800 sq km less ice this year.
If things do not change we are in for a rollercoaster of a year.

cesium62

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1279 on: May 16, 2016, 10:44:03 AM »
AND if we look at MASIE for 2012 05 15 and then look at 2016 05 15 the difference is 882800 sq km less ice this year.
If things do not change we are in for a rollercoaster of a year.

Deja Vu all over again:  On 17 May 2015, jdallen wrote: "If this pans out and continues as some models are suggesting, in a couple of months, Wadhams May be saying "I told you so" to all of us."  'Course, 2015 was one of the top three roller coaster rides...

[On 16 May 2015, jdallen posted detail photos of Kara, ESS, and Hudson.  I wonder if I can figure out how to find this year's corresponding images.]

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1280 on: May 16, 2016, 11:47:10 AM »
...
In the poker game of geo-engineering, nature has the law of unintended consequences and entropy as its hole cards.
I know that. You know that. Lowell Wood knows that. Heck, hard to find any enthusiast or specialist who wouldn't know that. However, after what's being done by "mankind" - ain't no chimpanzees doing it, it's we people, - with, say, Canada's tar sands or, say, deforestation... See?
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Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1281 on: May 16, 2016, 12:08:18 PM »
...
In the poker game of geo-engineering, nature has the law of unintended consequences and entropy as its hole cards.
I know that. You know that. Lowell Wood knows that. Heck, hard to find any enthusiast or specialist who wouldn't know that. However, after what's being done by "mankind" - ain't no chimpanzees doing it, it's we people, - with, say, Canada's tar sands or, say, deforestation... See?
In a joint letter with some of the world’s top climate scientists, Wadhams said the prospects for curbing global warming following the Paris Agreement are now so dire that he advocates a charge into geo-engineering – not something he recommends lightly. “Other things being equal I’m not a great fan of geo-engineering but I think it absolutely necessary given the situation we’re in. It’s a sticking plaster solution. But you need it because looking at the world, nobody’s instantly changing their pattern of life.”

Pumping huge amounts of water spray into clouds to make them bigger and brighter so that they reflect sunlight back into the atmosphere – known as Marine Cloud Brightening – offers the best geo-engineering prospect, he said.

More summaries and excerpts from the letter here: https://paulbeckwith.net/2016/01/09/cop21-deal-cannot-prevent-devastating-climate-change-academics-warn/
« Last Edit: May 16, 2016, 12:18:02 PM by Ice Shieldz »

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1282 on: May 16, 2016, 12:34:13 PM »
There is a new paper that chronicles the effects of the gradually earlier arrival of spring in the arctic to one of it's spring/summer inhabitants; the Red Knot (Calidris canutus). What happens in the arctic does not stay in the arctic.

It's easy to forget that what we're watching has already had significant impacts -- pushing some species to the edge of extinction.
Easy indeed. But for entirely different reason, for some people (myself included) than the one you presented.

Sure, species will extinct. Sure, it's sad. Sure, it's very important per se, species extinct is a big-time tragedy on its own, it took millions of years for them to evolve, and now they are disappearing pretty much forever in human civilization terms. Arctic ecosystems' damage and potential collapse, biodiversity loss, medicine potential wasted, ethical reasons - all true.

But this is just... _insignificant_ in compare to real big consequence of blue ocean Arctic - which is disastrous (for modern civilization) global climate change. Which is why it is indeed easy to forget about some particular species going extinct - because it's insignificant in compare to other things involved.

Should Arctic go blue, whole planet gets BIG time problems, humans included. I'd say that mentioning particular species loss without mentioning havoc to world-wide climate - can even be seen as an attempt to distract people from this "real" - much more important in terms of human existance, - consequence of the melt. This is one psychological method of presenting relatively non-important consequence - to try make the "cause" to look relatively non-important too.

There are many papers and articles on the subject, like this one for starters. But, i think i can sum up the problem off the top of my head and expand on what (probably) is said in that one, too. Quickly. Loss of summer sea ice in the arctic, by itself, will result in at least the following, afaik:

 - warmer oceans worldwide, with new monstrous El-Nino-like regularly devastating big parts of Earth after few decades of summer-ice-free Arctic;

 - warmer athmosphere worldwide and especially in higher latitudes of Northern Hemisphere, with direct consequences like many times more forest fires - this is already ongoing trend, yep - in boreal forests belt of Earth, causing massive further emission of greenhouse gases and directly destroying mankind's remaining wood supply, lots of biodiversity, and much infrastructure;

 - hundreds-gigatons-scale (at very least) geologically extremely rapid release of methane from Arctic land permafrosts and from methane hydrate deposits within large shallow shelves of Arctic ocean, thus massively accelerating warming worldwide (and thus further worldwide species loss, agriculture problems, desertification increase, many big ecosystems worldwide going nuts, etc);

 - complete melt of Greenland ice sheet (may well happen much sooner than most people think - all the thick sheet won't sit on its bottom and melt steadily, nope, it will fracture and slide), the point is, though, that sooner or later, that's some +6...7 meters to sea level worldwide from Greenland ice alone, which means ALL the fertile river deltas in the world will be lost to agriculture, lots of real estate, infrastructure, lots of big cities and some small states - all will be for all intents and purposes destroyed by ocean water.

I hope this tiny humble review of Arctic sea ice importance for the planet as a whole and for us humans in particular - would remind everyone here that what we discuss is way, WAY more important than some issue of "oh, some polar bears and alike will go extinct! It's terrible!".


P.S. And of course, once Arctic summer ice is mostly gone, it will take currently _NOT_ available technical means, - akin to industrial-scale, profitable thermo-nuclear reactors powering up most of mankind and able to provide lots of power on top of that, in order to "freeze back" the Arctic. It is currently unknown whether such technical means would ever actually be available, too. So losing summer sea ice is kind of great indicator, too: it is MUCH easier (and safer!) to prevent the loss than to get back to normal sea ice cover once it's nearly summer ice-free. So, if much easier part won't be done, then why exactly could we expect much harder way to ever succeed?

P.P.S. The most important elementary physics fact to understand when considering summer-ice-free Arctic ocean - is the fact that it takes ~83 times more energy to melt 1 kg of ice than to increase temperature of 1 kg of water by 1 degree Celcius. Once summer ice is nearly gone, that fact alone will change summer temperature in the Arctic dramatically - big-time extra heat which so far mostly goes into melting sea ice will instead start to increase temperatures of ocean waters and adjacent athmosphere, with above mentioned consequences.
« Last Edit: May 16, 2016, 02:02:12 PM by F.Tnioli »
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DungeonMaster

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1283 on: May 16, 2016, 12:40:20 PM »
AND if we look at MASIE for 2012 05 15 and then look at 2016 05 15 the difference is 882800 sq km less ice this year.
If things do not change we are in for a rollercoaster of a year.

Deja Vu all over again:  On 17 May 2015, jdallen wrote: "If this pans out and continues as some models are suggesting, in a couple of months, Wadhams May be saying "I told you so" to all of us."  'Course, 2015 was one of the top three roller coaster rides...

[On 16 May 2015, jdallen posted detail photos of Kara, ESS, and Hudson.  I wonder if I can figure out how to find this year's corresponding images.]

And if it was too easy to compute the final numbers, with perfect formulas and no alea, it would be no fun watching, would it be?
This forum helps me to feel less uncomfortable about "doing something" about the melting Arctic and the warming world.

meddoc

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1284 on: May 16, 2016, 01:55:03 PM »
Don't worry geo- engineering is coming- though in not that form as Wadhams & others are suggesting:

after the US & Russia China also elevated its Nuclear Triad's readyness to LOW (Launch on Warning).

6roucho

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1285 on: May 16, 2016, 02:33:35 PM »
...
In the poker game of geo-engineering, nature has the law of unintended consequences and entropy as its hole cards.
I know that. You know that. Lowell Wood knows that. Heck, hard to find any enthusiast or specialist who wouldn't know that. However, after what's being done by "mankind" - ain't no chimpanzees doing it, it's we people, - with, say, Canada's tar sands or, say, deforestation... See?
I do understand that humans, not chimpanzees, have disrupted the climate. My point is that we're capable of making things worse. Trusting humans to engineer the biosphere is like asking the backyard mechanic who ruined your car to build you a new one, while you're driving in it.

Of course, if we're facing runaway global warming then we might have no choice. Sadly, based on our experience, that might not result in any action.
« Last Edit: May 16, 2016, 03:05:42 PM by 6roucho »

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1286 on: May 16, 2016, 02:52:19 PM »
Don't worry geo- engineering is coming- though in not that form as Wadhams & others are suggesting:

after the US & Russia China also elevated its Nuclear Triad's readyness to LOW (Launch on Warning).
Naah. People who play with those won't start the exchange. False warnings repeatedly happened in the past - 1 false ICBM warning from USSR early detection system (iirc 1983), 1 more from Russia's same system (iirc 1995), and at least two more from similar system in USA. At least 4 times big boys had incoming nuclear attack indicated by their systems, but actual launches in _preemptive_ response (which in fact are very expected to be made) - were never made (at least, not _completed_ in terms of hitting their targets live and hot, that is).

Perhaps read this to understand why. I have no doubt our american partners have similar system. Nope, readiness and active state of Perimeter and its american counter-part - is merely showing off. Both sides know very well that _automated_ response to any actual large-scale attack will evaporate the agressor. Granted, lots of politicians and much of the public on all sides are not aware about this; but people "with the button" certainly are.

So nope, it's either (rather expensive) cloud brightening / Welsbach seeding / whatever else fancy to increase albedo temporarily, or pretty much nothing. And, of course, "our resources are limited" and "given the longer-term perspective it's a waste of resources anyway"...
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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1287 on: May 16, 2016, 03:15:54 PM »
...
I do understand that humans, not chimpanzees, have disrupted the climate. However, my point is that we're capable of making things worse.

Any decision to geo-engineer should depend first on a rational societal assessment of which action provides the least risk, and then on co-ordinated international action, two things at which we've proven spectacularly inept.

Trusting humans to engineer the climate is like asking the mechanic who ruined your car to build you a new one, while you're driving in it.
This goes too far off-topic... I'll risk to respond one last time on the subject...

 - yep, it can and very likely will make "things" worse eventually. But then, most solutions to big problems make "things" worse in longer and/or wider run. Usual deal. Industrialization, burning coal, pumping oil, etc etc - all those were (and still are) big solutions to big problems. Solutions which created AGW, you know. I fail to see how geo-engineering would be any different in principle. Same story;

 - disagree about "rational societal assesment". It's either rational, OR societal. Nowadays. Because there are lots of people made into "consumer culture" and "mass media brain washing", pardon my french... That said, rational assesment it is. By large and classified expert community. Think Manhatten project - something like that. However, even then, experts are unable to calculate all risks and impacts, there are big uncertainties involved. Which is why it's indeed "too risky to be taken" under normal circumstances. Sadly, Arctic sea ice circumstances are very far from "normal", though;

 - dead wrong argument about mechanic guy. Please, don't look at mankind as "one" will, "one" force, "one" action, ok? We people are very different. If one maniac rapes and kills little girls, would you say whole mankind is doing the same every chance they get? No. There are thousands such maniacs, even now. Same thing. There are specific people who kill this planet. They have names and addresses. Sadly, they are quite powerful, smart, and darn sneaky when almost cornered. Also, they run most of the "business as usual" show. Those are "the mechanic" who breaks the car. People who propose and (most importantly) are able to design and perform geo-engineering - are not exactly same people. To say the least. Even so, they wouldn't be able (even theoretically) to pull any significant geo-engineering off, if not for one simple truth: temporary solutions to slow/halt further warming will help, big time, for "business as usual" to go on. Which is why corporate would theoretically cooperate with scientific on the issue. So in your terms, this is the case of bad mechanic ruining the car, then asking another - better - mechanic to help him patch it up so it'll go for few more hundreds miles, to reach specific destination. With both mechanics travelling in the car, i think there are some little chances it'd work. Granted, they can end up, say, exploding the car's gas tank and both dying while trying to drive it all patched up... But when the alternative is to stop the car and die outta thirst in the middle of a vast desert, i think we both know what our brave mechanics will do.

Or perhaps, are already doing, circa 2013.
« Last Edit: May 16, 2016, 03:22:07 PM by F.Tnioli »
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OldLeatherneck

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1288 on: May 16, 2016, 03:46:21 PM »
Don't worry geo- engineering is coming- though in not that form as Wadhams & others are suggesting:

after the US & Russia China also elevated its Nuclear Triad's readyness to LOW (Launch on Warning).
Naah. People who play with those won't start the exchange. False warnings repeatedly happened in the past - 1 false ICBM warning from USSR early detection system (iirc 1983), 1 more from Russia's same system (iirc 1995), and at least two more from similar system in USA. At least 4 times big boys had incoming nuclear attack indicated by their systems, but actual launches in _preemptive_ response (which in fact are very expected to be made) - were never made (at least, not _completed_ in terms of hitting their targets live and hot, that is).

Perhaps read this to understand why. I have no doubt our american partners have similar system. Nope, readiness and active state of Perimeter and its american counter-part - is merely showing off. Both sides know very well that _automated_ response to any actual large-scale attack will evaporate the agressor. Granted, lots of politicians and much of the public on all sides are not aware about this; but people "with the button" certainly are.

So nope, it's either (rather expensive) cloud brightening / Welsbach seeding / whatever else fancy to increase albedo temporarily, or pretty much nothing. And, of course, "our resources are limited" and "given the longer-term perspective it's a waste of resources anyway"...

In 1975, I was working on the radar processing equipment at the Ballistic Missile Early Warning System (BMEWS), in Thule, Greenland.  It was a routine practice to periodically simulate a Mass Raid Attack.  Being that the early 60s technology had no means to generate simulation via software, it required the insertion of two very large circuit cards in to one of the many bays of processing equipment.  Unfortunately, one of the techs forgot to remove the circuit cards before going off duty, at shift change.  Sometime between 3 and 4 o'clock in the morning the alarm bells started clanging and red lights were flashing everywhere. While the pandemonium only lasted a little over 90 seconds until we recognized and rectified the situation, in that brief interim NORAD was placed on full alert, jets at SAC bases were scrambled and President Gerald Ford was awakened from his sleep.

While these "close calls" were few and far between, how close  did the world come to self-annihilation??
 
Even though this is continuing to take this thread off-topic, I felt I needed to share that experience.
"Share Your Knowledge.  It's a Way to Achieve Immortality."  ......the Dalai Lama

meddoc

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1289 on: May 16, 2016, 03:50:24 PM »
F. Tnioli

Naah. People who play with those won't start the exchange. False warnings repeatedly happened in the past - 1 false ICBM warning from USSR early detection system (iirc 1983), 1 more from Russia's same system (iirc 1995), and at least two more from similar system in USA. At least 4 times big boys had incoming nuclear attack indicated by their systems, but actual launches in _preemptive_ response (which in fact are very expected to be made) - were never made (at least, not _completed_ in terms of hitting their targets live and hot, that is).

Perhaps read this to understand why. I have no doubt our american partners have similar system. Nope, readiness and active state of Perimeter and its american counter-part - is merely showing off. Both sides know very well that _automated_ response to any actual large-scale attack will evaporate the agressor. Granted, lots of politicians and much of the public on all sides are not aware about this; but people "with the button" certainly are.



I'm very well aware of how Perimetrov works.
Nevertheless all 6 Nuclear Powers (US, Russia, China, India, North Korea & Israel) are all gearing up -waaay, waaay beyond cold war levels.
With peak oil (tar sands, shale- oil included) looming just around the corner & resource exhaustion, overpopulation & abrupt climate change- I'm certain there are entities pushing for a "programmed collapse" scenario instead of letting all things just fall apart in an "everybody-is-shooting-at-everybody" scenario.

Additionally, I suggest You do your homework on HOB (height of burst) effects.

DungeonMaster

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1290 on: May 16, 2016, 04:10:36 PM »
Please stick to the topic, dear guests... I think that we have numerous other posts on the Forum to discuss those related subjects, and we would prefer to keep this one for the Melting Season - for all the people who read this Forum...
Thank you!
This forum helps me to feel less uncomfortable about "doing something" about the melting Arctic and the warming world.

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1291 on: May 16, 2016, 04:15:57 PM »
...
I'm very well aware of how Perimetrov works.
Nevertheless all 6 Nuclear Powers (US, Russia, China, India, North Korea & Israel) are all gearing up -waaay, waaay beyond cold war levels.
With peak oil (tar sands, shale- oil included) looming just around the corner & resource exhaustion, overpopulation & abrupt climate change- I'm certain there are entities pushing for a "programmed collapse" scenario instead of letting all things just fall apart in an "everybody-is-shooting-at-everybody" scenario.

Additionally, I suggest You do your homework on HOB (height of burst) effects.
I'd reply on subject, but we're too far off-topic already. Don't want Neven decapitating us all when he's back.  ;D

Sigh...

Back to current events, i guess that Cryosphere Today ice area graph is dead due to F17 malfunction in its 37V channel, and it seems the malfunction is permanent damage (quote, my bold:

"...
PPS will be restarting F17 processing. There will be 88 1C products that will be retracted and reprocessed for the following dates:

2016-04-13 (18:29:37)  to 2016-04-19 (23:56:53).

Starting from this date and forward all 1C F17 products will flag the 37V channel as bad data".

If so, then we won't ever see the same CT area graph ever again, unless the same (in basic principle) instrument will be launched on some other satellite, eh? :(
« Last Edit: May 16, 2016, 04:47:12 PM by F.Tnioli »
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meddoc

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1292 on: May 16, 2016, 04:28:39 PM »
Please stick to the topic, dear guests... I think that we have numerous other posts on the Forum to discuss those related subjects, and we would prefer to keep this one for the Melting Season - for all the people who read this Forum...
Thank you!


I guess Arctic Sea Ice collapse has to do with every topic- that should- concern all of Humanity by now.

Tnioli,
what's Your email address?

NeilT

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1293 on: May 16, 2016, 05:08:55 PM »
True, but as one who has often taken us off topic I'd say that it's not the concern of people who are trying to understand, or at best sensibly observe, the impact of that warming on the ice.

Personally I'd just like to moan that every time a season seems to look seriously interesting I wind up losing some of my more interesting data.

Sensors broken, updates become erratic and I see the Barrow monitoring station is having power issues....  Although that's also prone to Bears "interfering" with it too.....  ;D

Just an observation over a long time of watching the stats...

It's all getting a bit rapid isn't it?  Although I note that Barrow has stopped melting in it's tracks with the cold and the ice crush on the coast...  Elsewhere though, very interesting.
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1294 on: May 16, 2016, 05:24:13 PM »
the term pond(s) would be a huge understatement  ;) 8)
Ponds?  What Ponds?  Looks like the ice has shattered.

which is why ponds are an understatement. if i'm not totally wrong understatement means there is more, hence more than ponds, basically water cover (film)  which means in other words that the ice is more or less entirely whater covered but i assumed that that is clearly visible (obvious) hence i took the humorous approach. next time i better write:

"as you can see the ice (crystalized H2O) is almost entirely covered in liquid H2O.  the hills mirroring on the water surface is clearly visible"

or one can simply take the information without counter commenting every word. not much fun to share like this.
« Last Edit: May 16, 2016, 05:33:00 PM by magnamentis »

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1295 on: May 16, 2016, 05:30:16 PM »
...
I guess Arctic Sea Ice collapse has to do with every topic- that should- concern all of Humanity by now.

Tnioli,
what's Your email address?
With quite several anyway, yes. As for email, f.tnioli@openmailbox.org will do.
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CraigsIsland

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1296 on: May 16, 2016, 05:52:25 PM »
Don't worry geo- engineering is coming- though in not that form as Wadhams & others are suggesting:

after the US & Russia China also elevated its Nuclear Triad's readyness to LOW (Launch on Warning).
Naah. People who play with those won't start the exchange. False warnings repeatedly happened in the past - 1 false ICBM warning from USSR early detection system (iirc 1983), 1 more from Russia's same system (iirc 1995), and at least two more from similar system in USA. At least 4 times big boys had incoming nuclear attack indicated by their systems, but actual launches in _preemptive_ response (which in fact are very expected to be made) - were never made (at least, not _completed_ in terms of hitting their targets live and hot, that is).

Perhaps read this to understand why. I have no doubt our american partners have similar system. Nope, readiness and active state of Perimeter and its american counter-part - is merely showing off. Both sides know very well that _automated_ response to any actual large-scale attack will evaporate the agressor. Granted, lots of politicians and much of the public on all sides are not aware about this; but people "with the button" certainly are.

So nope, it's either (rather expensive) cloud brightening / Welsbach seeding / whatever else fancy to increase albedo temporarily, or pretty much nothing. And, of course, "our resources are limited" and "given the longer-term perspective it's a waste of resources anyway"...

In 1975, I was working on the radar processing equipment at the Ballistic Missile Early Warning System (BMEWS), in Thule, Greenland.  It was a routine practice to periodically simulate a Mass Raid Attack.  Being that the early 60s technology had no means to generate simulation via software, it required the insertion of two very large circuit cards in to one of the many bays of processing equipment.  Unfortunately, one of the techs forgot to remove the circuit cards before going off duty, at shift change.  Sometime between 3 and 4 o'clock in the morning the alarm bells started clanging and red lights were flashing everywhere. While the pandemonium only lasted a little over 90 seconds until we recognized and rectified the situation, in that brief interim NORAD was placed on full alert, jets at SAC bases were scrambled and President Gerald Ford was awakened from his sleep.

While these "close calls" were few and far between, how close  did the world come to self-annihilation??
 
Even though this is continuing to take this thread off-topic, I felt I needed to share that experience.
That's a helluva story- thanks for sharing. It can be extremely relevant to this context as people with power do need to exercise restraint on using said power to push certain agendas.

Humanity above all else.

Back to topic - this year like all other years had been fascinating to watch. Scary but fascinating. Ok back to lurking mode. Take care all.

6roucho

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1297 on: May 16, 2016, 06:14:36 PM »
F. Tnioli

Naah. People who play with those won't start the exchange. False warnings repeatedly happened in the past - 1 false ICBM warning from USSR early detection system (iirc 1983), 1 more from Russia's same system (iirc 1995), and at least two more from similar system in USA. At least 4 times big boys had incoming nuclear attack indicated by their systems, but actual launches in _preemptive_ response (which in fact are very expected to be made) - were never made (at least, not _completed_ in terms of hitting their targets live and hot, that is).

Perhaps read this to understand why. I have no doubt our american partners have similar system. Nope, readiness and active state of Perimeter and its american counter-part - is merely showing off. Both sides know very well that _automated_ response to any actual large-scale attack will evaporate the agressor. Granted, lots of politicians and much of the public on all sides are not aware about this; but people "with the button" certainly are.



I'm very well aware of how Perimetrov works.
Nevertheless all 6 Nuclear Powers (US, Russia, China, India, North Korea & Israel) are all gearing up -waaay, waaay beyond cold war levels.
With peak oil (tar sands, shale- oil included) looming just around the corner & resource exhaustion, overpopulation & abrupt climate change- I'm certain there are entities pushing for a "programmed collapse" scenario instead of letting all things just fall apart in an "everybody-is-shooting-at-everybody" scenario.

Additionally, I suggest You do your homework on HOB (height of burst) effects.
I know this is way off topic, but there are at least nine nuclear powers. The UK and France have the 3rd and 4th most deployed warheads, respectively.
http://www.sipri.org/media/pressreleases/2014/nuclear_May_2014

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1298 on: May 16, 2016, 06:29:22 PM »

But most importantly, we are talking about absense of any real alternative to fossils. Yes, there are alternative energy and motor fuel sources. But none of those can provide energy / fuel on the scale fossil fuels do, right now. Not even half of it. Impossible.

So the sad truth is, for next several decades at very least, mankind can NOT stop burning fossils on a scale same or similar to present date.



This is 100% inaccurate.  I'd be glad to discuss this in a more appropriate thread.
Only now went to read this one. I'd be glad too. I'd be extremely very glad to be demonstrated wrong in this assesment of mine, too. Please provide a link here in the topic, to "more appropriate thread". Not writing it as a PM 'cause possibly more than just i will follow the link and join the discussion.

Agree, further off-topic here unacceptable.
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1299 on: May 16, 2016, 07:29:50 PM »
the term pond(s) would be a huge understatement  ;) 8)
Ponds?  What Ponds?  Looks like the ice has shattered.

which is why ponds are an understatement. if i'm not totally wrong understatement means there is more, hence more than ponds, basically water cover (film)  which means in other words that the ice is more or less entirely whater covered but i assumed that that is clearly visible (obvious) hence i took the humorous approach. next time i better write:

"as you can see the ice (crystalized H2O) is almost entirely covered in liquid H2O.  the hills mirroring on the water surface is clearly visible"

or one can simply take the information without counter commenting every word. not much fun to share like this.

Dear Magnamentis  - you tend to take offence easily, maybe because of the language or style difference. First of all thank you for posting these updates from Kimmirut, quite interesting, and please remember people may interpret same image in different ways, and post in different styles, it doesn't mean you are not being respected - so take everything in good humor.
By the way, personally it took me some time to understand your latest image. First I thought the ice darkened, then I thought it shattered, only then when I read explanations here and magnified the image I understood that it's the hills reflected and that it seems to be one big "pond".