An interesting period of weather coming up.
A shallow high pressure looks like taking control over the Arctic, but with relatively cool air in place, potential for melt doesn't look very strong.
ECM T72
The GFS shows most of the Arctic ocean still below 0C
However, as we move into the weekend, the high pressure strengthens and despite upper air values still being just a little above average overall, surface temps above 0C become widespread across the Arctic.
By early next week, things are more uncertain, but both the GFS and ECM predict a split between colder air over the Canadian side of the Arctic with milder air along the Eurasian side, and high pressure still in control with temperatures frequently climbing above 0C in the clear skies.
With this in mind, I don't expect to see any massive extent drops over the next week, with us moving back to within about 300k of the next lowest year. However, I think that there could be some big area losses still as surface melt begins to play more of a role.
Moreover, I think if we can sustain the high pressure into June and begin to pull warmer air into the Arctic then a big surface melt event could take hold. This may be the last preconditioning element required to provide 2016 with all it needs for a truly massive summer melt and another record smashing minimum.