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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1550 on: May 25, 2016, 04:12:41 PM »
For the NSIDC extent, a single drop of at least 6k on tomorrows update will take the 5 day average below 11.5 million km2 11 days earlier than the previous earliest date.

plinius

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1551 on: May 25, 2016, 05:21:29 PM »
Nice animations for the Beaufort! By the way, I suppose everybody noticed how the flows at the mouth of Amundsen Gulf are moving in the opposite direction of the gyre?

a cavity reverse flow like schematic? I think I saw this happening before.

Hi seaicesailor,
That would be my suspicion, or vortices splitting from the island. However, I would reverse your lower red arrow.

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1552 on: May 25, 2016, 05:26:14 PM »
Epic.

Just epic


Poor Greenland. Looking at that, i think about odds of repeating 2012 (nearly) complete surface melt and odds of breaking over 1000Gt/year of ice sheet mass loss for Greenland during 16/17 season. Heh. "Payback" time for 13/14, in a sense, it would then be...
« Last Edit: May 25, 2016, 05:36:32 PM by F.Tnioli »
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Phil.

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1553 on: May 25, 2016, 05:49:14 PM »
It's landfast ice rather than drift ice, and is often (not always) protected by grounded ridges. It's not particularly thick though.
http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_breakup
http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_sealevel

About 10 days ago the land fast ice extended to about 2km off the shore then a lot of mobile ice moved in from the SW which extended the ice out to about 6km.  This later addition is not protected by grounded ridges.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1554 on: May 25, 2016, 05:56:48 PM »
F. Tinoli: seems like we should have an big uptick in the melting over Greenland if the forecasts verifies. Right now virtually the whole Greenland is in the fridge.

Regarding Frivs latest post: the only thing that is missing is strong winds and a big warm air advection into the Arctic basin.

//LMV

Laurent

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1555 on: May 25, 2016, 06:17:59 PM »

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1556 on: May 25, 2016, 06:35:50 PM »
F. Tinoli: seems like we should have an big uptick in the melting over Greenland if the forecasts verifies.
...
Indeed. I hypertrophied a little, yes. I hope i did, anyway.

... Right now virtually the whole Greenland is in the fridge.
...
Right now, - nope it's not, in my opinion. It's already not, that is. Few days ago, yes, whole thing was in the fridge. That said, some more days ago, whole thing Greenland was in an oven. And right now, the fridge is leaking, according to this awesomeness' second graph, at quite a multi-year average intensity.

Yeah, yeah, i know, that's kinda unfair 'cause of delays and internal processes happening to liquid part of the sheet "inside" itself, takes time and is non-linear, but hey, if the thing leaks water "as usual" despite relatively cold air around it "right now" - then i can't call it "in a fridge" anyhow. Does not compute. Sorry! %)
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JimboOmega

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1557 on: May 25, 2016, 07:07:33 PM »
Anyone thinking 2012 has been the absolutely worst, may be dropping their jaws this summer.
Given just the preconditioning last summer & especially this winter and all the unprecedently high, relentless dmi temp anomalies things are set up for possible worst case scenario.
One, that has none regard whatsoever for U.S. elections, individual future carreer plans etc...

I think this year will beat 2012, mostly because I look more at feedback effects - beating records now has albedo effects that only help build momentum, etc. (Though I think you meant 2016 in your first line). 

I don't have a way to quantify it, though; how much extra heat does this lesser extent allow the arctic to absorb from insolation, and on what scale is that compared to say, extra atmospheric heat pumped by the dipole anomaly, or heat pumped from currents, or the Mackenzie/Ob/etc?

My main concern with this year and the "general climate impact" has been... what happens when the ice is (mostly) gone?   So far the arctic and to a lesser extent the world ocean is like a glass of ice water.  Putting a hot torch on it melts more of the ice, but it still stays at its triple point of roughly 0C... as long as there's some ice.  Whether the ice is 10 cm or 10m thick, it's the same temperature for the overall system... until it all melts.

If that happens though, I think there would suddenly be a lot of very noticeable knock-on effects. For instance an arctic entering the freezing season at 4C with no ice would freeze a lot less new ice and have much less brine rejection  (since it has to cool to below 0 C before it can start making new ice). The extra heat would relentlessly pound the greenland ice cap (which is otherwise stuck at 0C). The atmosphere would absorb a lot more moisture from the ocean surface directly.  Thermohaline circulation as we now know it wouldn't be a little different; it'd go haywire.  Could we get lake effect snows from the Hudson Bay? What does that moisture mean downstream?

None of those things can happen in the current regime; whether we have an extent minimum of 4Mkm^2 or 8Mkm^2, the amount of freezing in the winter has been (historically, though not this pyear) about the same, and even greater than usual in some years (like 2012).

That could change - and we could have a substantial discontinuity in effects for northern hemisphere climate

werther

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1558 on: May 25, 2016, 08:59:56 PM »
JayW, hi,

Interesting comparisons on Surface Skin Temps! I've been through some too, lately. Thought you might have selected to little days to hit on something decisive for this season.

Still, it's remarkable to see Skin Surface and 1000Mb Temps giving different viewpoints.

werther

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1559 on: May 25, 2016, 09:22:45 PM »
I thought it might have something to do with humidity in the layer right above the surface.

This is relative humidity anomaly for 20-23 May:



On MODIS, there's a lot of fog over the CAB.

JimboOmega

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1560 on: May 25, 2016, 09:31:05 PM »
I thought it might have something to do with humidity in the layer right above the surface.
(...)
On MODIS, there's a lot of fog over the CAB.

Fog and humidity means heat of vaporization is being released. Fog typically signals an inversion... warm moist air advecting in, being cooled by the surface until it starts to condense.  Releases more heat than dry warm air would, that way.

werther

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1561 on: May 25, 2016, 10:05:00 PM »
Jimbo, thanks,

I'm not saying this is a decisive factor. But mean temps out there hover around -3dC. Those humid air masses may have been injected into the high Arctic through the intense ridging.
If this does mean a more humid/warmer Surface Skin. If mean 1000Mb Temps do not completely reflect this.
Than it may be a lot of km2 CAB ice/snow cover is rapidly weakening/getting wet.

It's just hard to notice yet...

werther

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1562 on: May 25, 2016, 10:17:05 PM »
BTW I just noticed the DMI +80dgN temp has just hit the climate mean. For the first time this year. At app. -4dC.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1563 on: May 25, 2016, 10:33:10 PM »
Jimbo, thanks,

I'm not saying this is a decisive factor. But mean temps out there hover around -3dC. Those humid air masses may have been injected into the high Arctic through the intense ridging.
If this does mean a more humid/warmer Surface Skin. If mean 1000Mb Temps do not completely reflect this.
Than it may be a lot of km2 CAB ice/snow cover is rapidly weakening/getting wet.

It's just hard to notice yet...

very noticeable here ->

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.msg77941.html#msg77941

Neven

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1564 on: May 25, 2016, 10:51:11 PM »
Just three days of weak winds and the barrier keeping the two Pacific polynyas apart has become considerably smaller.



There won't be much southerly wind in the coming week along the N-American coast either, but could crazy high pressure clear skies cause it to just melt?

Either way, unless the wind starts blowing very strongly from the North (due to a big, persistent cyclone), the coast will be largely ice-free before June 10th, which is one month earlier than any other year in the 2005-2016 timeframe.
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Rob Dekker

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1565 on: May 26, 2016, 12:39:31 AM »
Hi Neven,

Yes. It is melting. But only indirectly because of the wind. The prime cause is warm water :

The vast amount of open water in the Beaufort (some 150,000 km^2 according to A-teams latest measurement) has absorbed massive amount of heat since it opened up a few weeks ago.

By my assessment here http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2016/05/beaufort-final-update.html?cid=6a0133f03a1e37970b01b8d1ea5de2970c#comment-6a0133f03a1e37970b01b8d1ea5de2970c we are talking about 50-90 TW.

That is enough heat to melt out some 10,000 - 16,000 km^2 of FYI per day.
Now that the winds are blowing (stirring the pot) that warm water comes in contact with the ice, and yes, then the ice just melts.

Also note on your animation that the floes that move along the edge of that open water are also disintegrating and melting away, which causes the Beaufort to loose some 15,000 km^2 per day over the past couple of days (according to Wipneus' assessment).

The Beaufort's open water is now so large and growing that the Beaufort may simply melt out at this rate all under its "own power" so to say. The awesome power of albedo feedback.
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1566 on: May 26, 2016, 12:42:49 AM »
I thought it might have something to do with humidity in the layer right above the surface.
(...)
On MODIS, there's a lot of fog over the CAB.

Fog and humidity means heat of vaporization is being released. Fog typically signals an inversion... warm moist air advecting in, being cooled by the surface until it starts to condense.  Releases more heat than dry warm air would, that way.
Previous years commenters found thermal inversion protective for the snow; inversion still air not carrying away vapor and blocking sun (although right now this doesn't make much difference given CAB albedo and low temps... in July it would be really favorable for ice).
Buoy 2015F reports steady snow cover, thickening ongoing, and temps well below zero.

http://imb.erdc.dren.mil/2015F.htm

However at this stage it is clear the action is at the periphery, as described above.

JimboOmega

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1567 on: May 26, 2016, 03:14:44 AM »
Previous years commenters found thermal inversion protective for the snow; inversion still air not carrying away vapor and blocking sun (although right now this doesn't make much difference given CAB albedo and low temps... in July it would be really favorable for ice).
Buoy 2015F reports steady snow cover, thickening ongoing, and temps well below zero.

http://imb.erdc.dren.mil/2015F.htm

However at this stage it is clear the action is at the periphery, as described above.

One thing I've mused about in a couple of posts is the relative impact of the different heat sources - albedo, vs atmospheric/convective transfer, vs ocean currents vs river inputs.  So in the case of fog you're getting heat from the atmosphere but less from the sun.

Granted fog/clouds does insulate it from radiative heat loss, but when the sun never sets the black body temperature of the atmosphere is probably consistently too high for that to matter.

And as a San Franciscan I can assure you that the sun can burn off fog clouds produced over cold ocean waters.  Depends on the thickness of the marine layer, of course!

timallard

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1568 on: May 26, 2016, 05:48:33 AM »
Previous years commenters found thermal inversion protective for the snow; inversion still air not carrying away vapor and blocking sun (although right now this doesn't make much difference given CAB albedo and low temps... in July it would be really favorable for ice).
Buoy 2015F reports steady snow cover, thickening ongoing, and temps well below zero.

http://imb.erdc.dren.mil/2015F.htm

However at this stage it is clear the action is at the periphery, as described above.

One thing I've mused about in a couple of posts is the relative impact of the different heat sources - albedo, vs atmospheric/convective transfer, vs ocean currents vs river inputs.  So in the case of fog you're getting heat from the atmosphere but less from the sun.

Granted fog/clouds does insulate it from radiative heat loss, but when the sun never sets the black body temperature of the atmosphere is probably consistently too high for that to matter.

And as a San Franciscan I can assure you that the sun can burn off fog clouds produced over cold ocean waters.  Depends on the thickness of the marine layer, of course!
Just posted a new topic on "Spring 2016" with related links on last fall's freeze and earthobservatory series of early breakup in the Beaufort with an audio-only from NSIDC ...
"Albedo loss = 20yrs of CO2 gains at 0.21-watts/m² = big trouble in Peoria.";
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1561.0.html
-tom

werther

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1569 on: May 26, 2016, 06:00:48 AM »
I just had a glance at weather forecasts. In Climate Reanalyzer and Wetteronline I see the warmth advection into the Pacific side for start of June reflected. 25 dC in Alaska, 17 dC on the shores of the ESS.
I think the DMI +80dgN graph will remain above normal and reach zero dgC about day 150 (31 May). In that scenario this melt season will maintain its lead on extent numbers ( and probably all numbers...).

Watching_from_Canberra

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1570 on: May 26, 2016, 06:13:24 AM »
The slowdown in extent reduction didn't last long - 180K km2 loss in 2 days according to JAXA:
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/vishop-extent.html?N

jdallen

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1571 on: May 26, 2016, 06:40:39 AM »
I just had a glance at weather forecasts. In Climate Reanalyzer and Wetteronline I see the warmth advection into the Pacific side for start of June reflected. 25 dC in Alaska, 17 dC on the shores of the ESS.
I think the DMI +80dgN graph will remain above normal and reach zero dgC about day 150 (31 May). In that scenario this melt season will maintain its lead on extent numbers ( and probably all numbers...).
Just finished my evening browse through Worldview.  Not going to bother with images, just go look.

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721(hidden),VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2016-05-25&v=-7134444.442907965,-2300747.4803123293,2720531.5570920357,2327732.5196876707

The quality of the ice just about everywhere is just awful.  There's about 30% more open water than the same places had in 2015, and some places like the the Siberian coast north of Wrangel island are just disintergrating into small floes.  Okhotsk and Bering ice are basically gone as I'd anticipated, but not as I'd anticipated, the Hudson and Baffin bays and Labrador and Kara seas are all getting wrecked.

I'd not be surprised by us starting to see strings of 2-3 century breaks happening almost immediately as the heat hits all of these, along with the already disintergrating Beaufort and Chukchi.
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Csnavywx

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1572 on: May 26, 2016, 07:39:37 AM »
The omega block that is setting up now absolutely crushes the ESS and Chukchi starting in about 2-3 days. It's already above freezing there now -- but it gets much worse after day 2. A decent amount of that heat makes it into the CAB as well. As werther points out, temps soar inland along the coasts and the longer the block sits there, the warmer it gets over the ice -- GFS temps push over +5C at 2 meters by D4/D5 over the ice, which is rather extreme. That's nearly certain to open a large area of open water very quickly and cause massive albedo losses over the ice that survives there.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1573 on: May 26, 2016, 07:43:26 AM »
The omega block that is setting up now absolutely crushes the ESS and Chukchi starting in about 2-3 days. It's already above freezing there now -- but it gets much worse after day 2. A decent amount of that heat makes it into the CAB as well. As werther points out, temps soar inland along the coasts and the longer the block sits there, the warmer it gets over the ice -- GFS temps push over +5C at 2 meters by D4/D5 over the ice, which is rather extreme. That's nearly certain to open a large area of open water very quickly and cause massive albedo losses over the ice that survives there.
We should open June with a catastrophic drop a la June 2012, except two+ weeks ahead... very frightening.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1574 on: May 26, 2016, 08:41:24 AM »
I found a forecast calling for daytime temperatures of about 15oC at Pevek by next week and night temps about 5-10oC...

Temps should also reach above zero at New Sibirian Islands as well as Wrangels Island.

Werther: you know that you can get the degree sign by using the button "sup" when you are editing your posts and then put an "o"? :)

//LMV

Andreas T

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1575 on: May 26, 2016, 08:45:45 AM »
I thought it might have something to do with humidity in the layer right above the surface.
(...)
On MODIS, there's a lot of fog over the CAB.

Fog and humidity means heat of vaporization is being released. Fog typically signals an inversion... warm moist air advecting in, being cooled by the surface until it starts to condense.  Releases more heat than dry warm air would, that way.
Previous years commenters found thermal inversion protective for the snow; inversion still air not carrying away vapor and blocking sun (although right now this doesn't make much difference given CAB albedo and low temps... in July it would be really favorable for ice).
Buoy 2015F reports steady snow cover, thickening ongoing, and temps well below zero.

http://imb.erdc.dren.mil/2015F.htm

However at this stage it is clear the action is at the periphery, as described above.
Obuoy14 shows what this looks like at ground level. Temps have been around and below -5oC for the last days. Relative humidity not very high (for the arctic) so fog is probably not down to groundlevel. I marked its position on terra from yesterday (not much change in weather condition): in the satellite view gaps between flows are noticeable through the thin cloud / fog. On the buoy camera it looks pretty gloomy.

Neven

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1576 on: May 26, 2016, 09:44:43 AM »
Hi Neven,

Yes. It is melting. But only indirectly because of the wind. The prime cause is warm water :

I agree, Rob, but it's the wind that caused those polynyas in the first place, and winds cause water to open faster than melting (at this time of year). Basically I was hinting at what you so eloquently describe: Even without winds that ice is going to move out of the way (because of the albedo feedback heating up the water all around it), and those polynyas will be connected, one month earlier than in any other year of the last decade.

Which is quite amazing, of course. But it's just a prelude of what's to come, I fear.

Edit: I just looked at the forecast (crushing conditions ahead), and there will be some more wind and high temps in the Beaufort area. That ice is a goner. Those polynyas will be connected next week. Extent could move away even further from the pack. Amazing...
« Last Edit: May 26, 2016, 09:49:49 AM by Neven »
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Meirion

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1577 on: May 26, 2016, 10:05:23 AM »
This is where CCI thinks we are now and where the Arctic will be in a week... Thoughts?

abbottisgone

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1578 on: May 26, 2016, 10:08:53 AM »
um,.. it would seem Brazil and Africa are going to get a break!

That's good right  :o
..
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Watching_from_Canberra

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1579 on: May 26, 2016, 10:51:35 AM »
Thoughts?

Well, it will be summer by then.   :o  Plus what abbotisgone said.

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1580 on: May 26, 2016, 10:55:06 AM »
...
There won't be much southerly wind in the coming week along the N-American coast either, but could crazy high pressure clear skies cause it to just melt?
...
Why couldn't it? ~450 W/m2 (slightly higher already?) there right now. If anything can melt it, then clear skies is certainly the prime suspect here. Especially seeing much of it getting dotted by lower concentration already. Or is there something special?
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1581 on: May 26, 2016, 11:13:37 AM »
Neven,
I had not read a post from you in three years with the word 'amazing' twice, ... really stirring, to be aware of what may come... regards.

Adam Ash

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1582 on: May 26, 2016, 11:40:31 AM »
I see the latest PIOMAS report notes:

'.... Compared to 2012, ice is substantially thinner in the Beaufort and Chukchi Sea, and Barents Sea area but a bit thicker than north of the Canadian Archipelago and Greenland.'

This thinner ice is right where it is most vulnerable isn't it, while the comparatively thicker ice by the CAA and Greenland will get spun west via the gyre and east to exit via Fran over the summer. 

Has Peter Wadhams re-published his zero ice bet this year or have the bookies refused to give him odds? 

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1583 on: May 26, 2016, 11:55:22 AM »
...
Has Peter Wadhams re-published his zero ice bet this year or have the bookies refused to give him odds?
I wouldn't do it if i were him. I suspect his bet was more of "insert the idea of imminent summer ice-free Arctic into more egg-heads" than of anything else. Using the critical mass of his name (polar specialist sense) to do some good, you know. Now that the bet is failed and the task is done (well enough), why repeat it.

P.S. There is one comment mentioning Wadhams' "recent post" on this guardian page (expand comments section to see it), and i'm not sure what that "recent post" is.
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1584 on: May 26, 2016, 12:02:52 PM »

FWIW, the AO index going negative again, NAO too; and PNA back to zero or perhaps positive in a few days.

Nick_Naylor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1585 on: May 26, 2016, 12:32:21 PM »
um,.. it would seem Brazil and Africa are going to get a break!

That's good right  :o

The two images are from different times of day.  It makes a huge difference for Brazil and Africa (which are not cooling over this period), and even exaggerates the change in the Arctic a little.

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1586 on: May 26, 2016, 12:56:15 PM »
Quote
The two images are from different times of day.  It makes a huge difference for Brazil and Africa (which are not cooling over this period), and even exaggerates the change in the Arctic a little.


Absolutely.  Using anomaly would have been a better measure....especially if one uses different times of the day.
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Laurent

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1587 on: May 26, 2016, 01:50:03 PM »

CameraMan

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1588 on: May 26, 2016, 03:50:31 PM »
This appears to be happening,

You called it.  Wide open now.
Nothing to impede further transport once the wind picks up.

meddoc

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1589 on: May 26, 2016, 04:18:36 PM »
Although a bit unrelated, still it's pretty remarkable what's been recently happening on the other end of the Planet:

EgalSust

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1590 on: May 26, 2016, 05:31:52 PM »
Hi everyone,

finally decided to register here, woop, woop!

I don't know if it was already mentioned, but the Slater Probabilistic Ice Extent (SPIE) seems to be up and running for this year:

http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/

Does anyone here have the ability to plot the 2012 observations next to the Slater prognosis?

What I find also interesting are the Ice Difference Maps:
http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/ICEDIFF/

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1591 on: May 26, 2016, 07:06:05 PM »
Hi everyone,
finally decided to register here, woop, woop!
I don't know if it was already mentioned, but the Slater Probabilistic Ice Extent (SPIE) seems to be up and running for this year:
http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/
Does anyone here have the ability to plot the 2012 observations next to the Slater prognosis?
What I find also interesting are the Ice Difference Maps:
http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/ICEDIFF/
Funny, it is predicting that butterfly-shaped area North of Beaufort (now a triangle) high chances to melt out before August.
It is probably wrong there since it was apparent that this spot does not represent either loss of concentration or albedo.... (but what if it melts?)

Laurent

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1592 on: May 26, 2016, 08:10:37 PM »
Differences of concentrations between 2016 and other years.
1979-1989-1990-2000-2001-2002-2003-2004-2005-2006-2007-2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013-2014-2015
from http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/ICEDIFF/
« Last Edit: May 26, 2016, 08:17:59 PM by Laurent »

A-Team

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1593 on: May 26, 2016, 08:16:00 PM »
Quote
neven writes: the barrier keeping the two Pacific polynyas apart has become considerably smaller.
Right.

gregcharles

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1594 on: May 26, 2016, 08:51:15 PM »
Differences of concentrations between 2016 and other years.

Thanks, that's a very interesting graphic. It obviously shows the massacre in the Beaufort, but also points out something that's been puzzling me. The Hudson Bay seems to be melting from the north down. Your graphics show that's unusual, or at least exaggerated this year. Do we know what's going on there? 

Andreas T

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1595 on: May 26, 2016, 09:14:56 PM »
Last year this happened too. If you look at the ice edge carefully you can see floes moving south rather than melting. Opening water is not always caused by melt..Last year the south melted last. Maybe a pattern of warm west colder east linked to behaviour of jetstream?

A-Team

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1596 on: May 26, 2016, 09:21:35 PM »
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May 25th differences in sea ice concentration.
To avoid alignment jitter, it works better to take whole-screen screenshots even though they are 'too big', layer them up, and only then crop to size. There is a lot of dead wood on these graphics so when that is pruned, the layers can be scaled up to a larger size that still runs on the forum (700x700 or under, less than 5 MB).
« Last Edit: May 26, 2016, 09:31:00 PM by A-Team »

bbr2314

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1597 on: May 26, 2016, 09:44:19 PM »
Something that should be noted is that the sea ice over Hudson Bay has seemingly inverted in terms of where it is concentrated compared to earlier years. I highly suspect this is due to fresh meltwater entering from the N/NE.

Peter Ellis

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1598 on: May 26, 2016, 10:12:22 PM »
Meanwhile, over at Idiot Central, Steven Goddard is genuinely claiming that there is more ice this year than last, and backing it up by doing pixel counting on heavily compressed low resolution thumbnail images from DMI.
http://realclimatescience.com/2016/05/arctic-fraud-continues-unabated/

I've tried to correct him in a comment, unfortunately I seem to have been placed in moderation after an earlier comment where I made the mistake of pointing him to the actual data and the user manual for it.

I'll paste my comment here so I don't feel I wasted my time typing it up...

Quote
You’re getting caught out by the change in the land mask.

Look at the picture from last year – here’s the high res link. Observe the THICK dark blue line around all the coastlines – i.e. the area that is masked off as “un-analysable” because it’s too close to the coastline to be reliably scored as water or ice
http://osisaf.met.no/p/ice/nh/edge/imgs/OSI_HL_SAF_201505251200_pal.jpg

Now look at the picture from this year. Note that it’s higher resolution and has a smaller “Pole Hole”, and that there is only a THIN blue line round all the coastlines. The vast majority of the (previous) thick blue line is now being correctly shown as white, ice-covered water.
http://osisaf.met.no/p/ice/nh/edge/imgs/OSI_HL_SAF_201605251200_pal.jpg

Now look at your overlay. First up, it’s woefully low resolution and distorted – I can only assume you’re using the thumbnail images rather than clicking through to the high res ones. Second, note that there is now a green border along almost every coastline – particularly obvious in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. These are pixels that are ice-covered this year but which were NOT ANALYSED last year. You are erroneously counting these as an increase in ice. You’re a computer programmer, so tell me, what is the correct answer when comparing a floating point point value to a NULL? You’re treating NULL as a zero, because you’re an idiot.
http://realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/2016-05-26-10-48-31.png

This is exactly the factor that led to the sudden upward spike on the old DMI graph when the land mask was changed – more ice is now being detected, because they’re able to look at a finer resolution and closer to the land edges. For the new DMI graph they have adjusted the earlier values using the updated land mask to ensure that the dataset is comparable from year to year. They haven’t gone through and re-generated all the image screenshots on their web page, because they didn’t think anyone would be stupid enough to try and extract numerical data from a compressed, low resolution image when the actual data is freely available. It seems even the most idiot-proof system can be confounded by a REALLY PROFESSIONAL idiot.

Go and get the real data in grid format, here. It’s available in three different formats, all open source.
ftp://osisaf.met.no/prod/ice/conc <– last month
ftp://osisaf.met.no/archive/ice/conc <– data back to 2005
http://www.osi-saf.org/biblio/docs/osisaf_cdop2_ss2_pum_ice-conc_1_0.pdf <– user manual

Neven

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1599 on: May 26, 2016, 10:30:15 PM »
Ah yes, DMI, the gift that keeps giving, except to people who link to it all the time, in a positive way. [/cynicism off]

Peter, we have a thread elsewhere for posting comments that don't get posted on climate risk denier sites.
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