Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: The 2016 melting season  (Read 1692858 times)

frankendoodle

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 110
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1750 on: May 31, 2016, 09:31:46 PM »
Does anyone know what is going on with the JAXA website? Between that being offline and NSIDC not posting daily data since March I am not getting my daily numbers. Without daily SIE numbers to pour over, what the heck am I supposed to do all summer?!

Andreas T

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1143
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 17
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1751 on: May 31, 2016, 09:36:55 PM »
....
Wide spread melt ponding near Wrangel Island and in front of the Kolyma Delta. Pevek Bay is water covered ice.
....
I think the ice near Pevek and the Kolyma Delta have gone beyond meltponding, the lighter whitish colour there occurs when the ice becomes more porous and surface water drains away before the ice starts to disintegerate and melt away. In the Chukchi sea, dirty ice has become visible this is ice darkened by algae and sediment. Its lower albedo makes it absorb more of the solar radiation it receives at the moment.

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1330
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 46
  • Likes Given: 29
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1752 on: May 31, 2016, 09:49:07 PM »
I think we may expect to see the Laptev bite start showing up as the temps there might exceed 0oC for the rest of the next 5 days. ESS should also take a huge hit but the ice there should be stronger and thicker compared to the one in Laptev. How much time will it take until the ice in Laptev starts to rotten?

See CCI_Reanalyzer for temp forecast.

//LMV

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4744
  • Stay Home, Save Lives
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 507
  • Likes Given: 44
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1753 on: May 31, 2016, 09:54:35 PM »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

werther

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 747
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 31
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1754 on: May 31, 2016, 10:19:33 PM »
I agree, Andreas.
You describe the process as it has been visible on MODIS through the years. And indeed, some parts are turning white again as melt water is drained through melt-stricken porous ice.
And SE of Wrangel brown hues indicate what you write.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3248
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 525
  • Likes Given: 206
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1755 on: May 31, 2016, 10:46:20 PM »
I agree, Andreas.
You describe the process as it has been visible on MODIS through the years. And indeed, some parts are turning white again as melt water is drained through melt-stricken porous ice.
And SE of Wrangel brown hues indicate what you write.
With SST's rising as high as they have, combined with merciless sun, we could be seeing nearly 10CM/day of ice getting stripped off of the top of the pack in those areas.
This space for Rent.

Ice Shieldz

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 249
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 59
  • Likes Given: 57
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1756 on: May 31, 2016, 11:33:43 PM »
Here's some of that dirty ice mentioned earlier (as of yesterday).

« Last Edit: May 31, 2016, 11:40:21 PM by Ice Shieldz »

Laurent

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2538
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 35
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1757 on: May 31, 2016, 11:42:11 PM »
Lots of rain from Laptev to the Canadian archipelago starting tomorrow until Monday.
http://www.weather-forecast.com/maps/Arctic?symbols=none&type=prec
« Last Edit: May 31, 2016, 11:57:03 PM by Laurent »

pauldry600

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 231
    • View Profile
    • weathergossip
  • Liked: 24
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1758 on: May 31, 2016, 11:44:50 PM »
This year is getting very close to a nailed on record.

As I look at all your wonderful animations of sea ice melting its apparent its from all sides this year.

Only 2012 can stop 2016 and heaven knows what an arctic storm in August or September will do.

By September 15th there may be just a lump of white to the North of Greenland

Since theres no numbers can anyone "guess" how much extent is....e.g are we still over 10.2m

seaicesailor

  • Guest
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1759 on: June 01, 2016, 12:31:25 AM »
I think we may expect to see the Laptev bite start showing up as the temps there might exceed 0oC for the rest of the next 5 days. ESS should also take a huge hit but the ice there should be stronger and thicker compared to the one in Laptev. How much time will it take until the ice in Laptev starts to rotten?

See CCI_Reanalyzer for temp forecast.

//LMV

Isn't there as well a first major blow to CAA from the continent, with greenland high sustained from day after tomorrow? A cyclone over  Kara transporting air and ice toward the Atlantic. Beaufort remains cool. Interesting weather. Lots of heat biting the Arctic.


seaicesailor

  • Guest
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1760 on: June 01, 2016, 01:03:43 AM »
 Rutgers map for May 31 to be published tomorrow is going be so grossly red for the whole Western Arctic section... cant wait to see Dekker and Slater first predictions for September (if they use end of May data). Compactness has started to decline. Extent is already low. I feel a bit alarmist today.
And personally I see melt fronts already active everywhere (except for CAA yet).
And that warm warm Atlantic burning everything that is pushed over there.
Man I need some true quality time with family and so.

pauldry600

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 231
    • View Profile
    • weathergossip
  • Liked: 24
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1761 on: June 01, 2016, 01:18:56 AM »
Still not sure what will happen if most of arctic is water by September. I know Im wrong but wouldnt it be funny if it just refroze in late October and we had the normal cover by December.

Thats a dream isnt it

More likely winds floods and blizzards for the Winter on a regular and extreme basis.

JimboOmega

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 140
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1762 on: June 01, 2016, 01:44:11 AM »
Still not sure what will happen if most of arctic is water by September. I know Im wrong but wouldnt it be funny if it just refroze in late October and we had the normal cover by December.

Thats a dream isnt it

More likely winds floods and blizzards for the Winter on a regular and extreme basis.

I've pondered this a lot. I think there's a major discontinuity when it enters the "mostly water" situation - since then the water is absorbing heat, not just using it to melt ice.  It'd also be losing more heat to the atmosphere via atmosphere, injecting moisture into the usual polar desert. It'd be warm enough to resist the "usual refreeze" for some time - maybe a matter of weeks?  But effectively we'd have a shorter freezing season.

All that would have all kinds of wacky impacts on the winter.  Wouldn't say "winds floods and blizzards", and not sure what "regular and extreme basis" means, but definitely different.  We'd lose some of the usual thermohaline impact, for instance. High latitude deserts like Barrow might see a lot more precip, too.

I think we'd see a much more moderate (in the sense of not as cold) atmosphere at higher latitude, and the polar vortex wouldn't set up nearly as soon. I think the decreased temperature gradient would ultimately moderate weather, not increase its severity, as it's thermodynamically more stable...  but it's hard to really say.

I think the fun really starts when the arctic moves away form the triple point, and what will matter is how long it is away from that point. Other effects are linear and variations on what we've seen before, imo.

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1845
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 550
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1763 on: June 01, 2016, 02:31:40 AM »
The gfs fucking crushes the ESS and chuchki. Endless sun and massive WAA.   

Huge low level WAA.


« Last Edit: June 01, 2016, 02:39:04 AM by Frivolousz21 »
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

JimboOmega

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 140
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1764 on: June 01, 2016, 03:06:07 AM »
The gfs fucking crushes the ESS and chuchki. Endless sun and massive WAA.   

Huge low level WAA.


Was looking at that in the climate reanalyzer... and once again had to check "there's still ice there, right?"  Can't imagine the low level temps can be that high over ice.  One of the New Siberian islands is supposed to get up to like 20C (or whatever yellow in reanalyzer is)... 

I wonder if it's actually predicting the ice to melt and thus let temps rise more?

Michael Hauber

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 900
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 77
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1765 on: June 01, 2016, 03:50:35 AM »
GFS and EC do both tend to crush ESS and Chukchi.  But considering this is the first week of June I don't think that's enough to keep up with 2012.  In that year surface melt spread throughout nearly the entire Arctic in the first week.  The warm sector is maybe one quarter of the Arctic, and the other 3/4 of the Arctic seem to be influenced by low pressure troughing and cool conditions.  It is this low pressure troughing which is bringing significant warm air up on the eastern side.  A previous run of EC had moved the low pressure far enough to the side for a serious basin wide dipole late in the run, but most other runs look much milder.

Combined with what we've already seen its turning into quite an early season assault on the ESS, which is usually a bastion later in the season which doesn't start yielding open water until July, and the only years the ESS totally melted out were in 2007 and 2012. 
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3248
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 525
  • Likes Given: 206
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1766 on: June 01, 2016, 03:52:07 AM »
The gfs fucking crushes the ESS and chuchki. Endless sun and massive WAA.   

Huge low level WAA.


Was looking at that in the climate reanalyzer... and once again had to check "there's still ice there, right?"  Can't imagine the low level temps can be that high over ice.  One of the New Siberian islands is supposed to get up to like 20C (or whatever yellow in reanalyzer is)... 

I wonder if it's actually predicting the ice to melt and thus let temps rise more?
A couple of things, going back to some of your previous posts.

First, even if there was a full melt out of the arctic (sub 1,000,000KM2 of ice at minimum), the refreeze in fall would recover completely, and will continue to do so for decades to come.   It will be the best part of a century before we have a year round ice free Arctic, at the least.

Second, ice, even relatively thin ice (sub 2 meters) embodies a huge amount of thermal lag during the melt season.  Exposure to bursts of energy, even very significant atmospheric heat (think 5C+) won't dent it seriously.  It requires fairly continuous exposure to energy before it will start coming apart.

Third, conductive atmospheric transfer of heat from atmosphere is a very small component of the heat that goes into melting.  The melt season "Heavy Lifting" is done by sunlight - either captured by open ocean or melt ponds.  Put this way, a layer of water at +1C can deliver approximately 15 times the energy to the ice than atmosphere at +5C.

So, the major story of what's coming up in the Chukchi will be the sunlight.  Atmospheric heat will be a thin bonus, perhaps helping start melt ponding, which will amplify the effect of the sunshine.

Even with that, there is a fixed amount of energy per day that the sun dumps into the high Arctic this time of year - most areas will look at between 12-14KWH/day/M2 equivalent.  Albedo if low - .25 or lower - will capture 75% of that, of which we might generously see half applied to the ice.  That's only enough to tear through 5-8CM of ice per day.  So even with near continuous conditions like what's coming up, it would take a solid month of this weather to burn through even "average" ice of about 1.8M thickness.

Now, this doesn't include latent heat already in place at depth in the Arctic oceans.  If we get wind and movement, that would accelerate things.  That would also spread the ice out, which would provide additional exposure to heat.

So, my conclusion is... the weather is very alarming.  If it continues it will be crushing.  However, it will still take considerable time for the damage being done to become clearly visible.
This space for Rent.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3248
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 525
  • Likes Given: 206
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1767 on: June 01, 2016, 04:00:11 AM »
GFS and EC do both tend to crush ESS and Chukchi.  But considering this is the first week of June I don't think that's enough to keep up with 2012. 
<snippage>
Concur.  It will take much more than this to keep up with the 2012 run that started about this time.

With a 1.2 million KM2 lead though, 2016 doesn't need to much to stay stay ahead.  Even an incredibly lousy June - less than 1.75 million KM2 - which is high doubtful, would leave 2016 near or still ahead of 2012.
This space for Rent.

slow wing

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 819
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 156
  • Likes Given: 498
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1768 on: June 01, 2016, 04:17:00 AM »
The gfs fucking crushes the ESS and chuchki. Endless sun and massive WAA.   

Huge low level WAA.


Was looking at that in the climate reanalyzer... and once again had to check "there's still ice there, right?"  Can't imagine the low level temps can be that high over ice.  One of the New Siberian islands is supposed to get up to like 20C (or whatever yellow in reanalyzer is)... 

I wonder if it's actually predicting the ice to melt and thus let temps rise more?
It's not showing the surface temperature. Instead, it's showing the temperature higher in the atmosphere, where the pressure is 850 hPa.



JimboOmega

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 140
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1769 on: June 01, 2016, 04:28:59 AM »

First, even if there was a full melt out of the arctic (sub 1,000,000KM2 of ice at minimum), the refreeze in fall would recover completely, and will continue to do so for decades to come.   It will be the best part of a century before we have a year round ice free Arctic, at the least.

I don't think an ice free September would mean an ice free winter, of course, but...

Quote
Second, ice, even relatively thin ice (sub 2 meters) embodies a huge amount of thermal lag during the melt season.  Exposure to bursts of energy, even very significant atmospheric heat (think 5C+) won't dent it seriously.  It requires fairly continuous exposure to energy before it will start coming apart.

The same applies to open water in the reverse, which is my concern.  The freezing season, if started over substantially open water would need time to cool that water to 0 C first - that huge amount of thermal lag. Getting that ball rolling a couple weeks late would mean less ice freezes.

I can't see how a substantially ice free arctic loses heat better than any previous year to allow a "complete" recovery.  In fact, I don't see a mechanism for it to freeze as much as it has in previous years, especially with CO2/methane.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying it won't recover. I just don't think it'll be complete. Maybe it'll be 80% of usual, but that is a tipping point with albedo effects considered.  And less freeze has all sorts of knock on effects that I've mentioned.

Basically I argue once you reach the ice free point, the planet has to spend more time ventilating heat from open water before it can get to freezing that water, and that means less freezing.

Quote
Third, conductive atmospheric transfer of heat from atmosphere is a very small component of the heat that goes into melting.  The melt season "Heavy Lifting" is done by sunlight - either captured by open ocean or melt ponds.  Put this way, a layer of water at +1C can deliver approximately 15 times the energy to the ice than atmosphere at +5C.

So, the major story of what's coming up in the Chukchi will be the sunlight.  Atmospheric heat will be a thin bonus, perhaps helping start melt ponding, which will amplify the effect of the sunshine.

Pity the Beaufort, then. In the other thread where we looked at albedo impacts... as best I can tell they are significant.  (Also per that thread, atmosphere matters a lot; rivers and currents not as much.  Go check it out, I'm not 100% confident in those results).

[/quote]

Quote
Even with that, there is a fixed amount of energy per day that the sun dumps into the high Arctic this time of year - most areas will look at between 12-14KWH/day/M2 equivalent.  Albedo if low - .25 or lower - will capture 75% of that, of which we might generously see half applied to the ice.  That's only enough to tear through 5-8CM of ice per day.  So even with near continuous conditions like what's coming up, it would take a solid month of this weather to burn through even "average" ice of about 1.8M thickness.

Peak arctic insolation at north pole is 520 W/M^2... so yeah, 12-14kwh/day/m^2.  Heat of fusion for water is 333.55 J/g... pretending everything is freshwater that gives me 12 cm - close enough.  That means an average thickness of 1.8M would last 15 days.   More like 30 in your scenario.  Summer is longer than that, of course.

Incidentally, on the darkest days of the long polar night, what kind of black body radiation loss to space does it have?  We could come up with the same kind of numbers for how fast freezing goes in ideal terms.  I'm more concerned with the "delay in refreeze" impacts than I am on the ice melting, because of thermohaline impacts.

Quote
Now, this doesn't include latent heat already in place at depth in the Arctic oceans.  If we get wind and movement, that would accelerate things.  That would also spread the ice out, which would provide additional exposure to heat.

So, my conclusion is... the weather is very alarming.  If it continues it will be crushing.  However, it will still take considerable time for the damage being done to become clearly visible.

And there's the heat absorbed by anomalous open water (hi, Beaufort!), which I assume gets shuttled to the ice interface somehow.  Albedo anomaly now counts a lot more for heat accumulation than September (and 2012) anomaly.

We agree that it's alarming.  I don't know about crushing. Depending who you ask, it's already very clearly visible; if you look at any extent graph you know something is wrong.

But worldwide impacts?  I think that's where we disagree.  I think this may be the year, especially this winter.

Of course there's a very good chance we don't lose anything like all of the ice this year,  but if we're on a downhill slope where the winter we just had is not anomalous, and we aren't freezing like we used to (e.g., post-2012 recovery), we'll get there soon enough.

JimboOmega

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 140
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1770 on: June 01, 2016, 04:30:09 AM »
The gfs fucking crushes the ESS and chuchki. Endless sun and massive WAA.   

Huge low level WAA.


Was looking at that in the climate reanalyzer... and once again had to check "there's still ice there, right?"  Can't imagine the low level temps can be that high over ice.  One of the New Siberian islands is supposed to get up to like 20C (or whatever yellow in reanalyzer is)... 

I wonder if it's actually predicting the ice to melt and thus let temps rise more?
It's not showing the surface temperature. Instead, it's showing the temperature higher in the atmosphere, where the pressure is 850 hPa.

Reanalyzer very clearly says 2M. It might be wrong, and I know other sources do use 850hPa.

Csnavywx

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 548
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 71
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1771 on: June 01, 2016, 05:11:26 AM »
His chart was of 850mb temps. 2m temps won't get much above 1-3C during melt (high than that is possible, but requires extreme WAA and/or nearby land/open water), so it's better to check 925mb or 850mb temps and the wind to get an idea of the heat exchange taking place between the boundary layer (low-levels) and the surface.

Csnavywx

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 548
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 71
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1772 on: June 01, 2016, 05:18:31 AM »
Since 2012 is coming up as the next challenger to 2016 -- let's review how it went:














Bruce Steele

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1857
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 489
  • Likes Given: 23
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1773 on: June 01, 2016, 06:44:53 AM »
Below is a link to a couple buoys close to the Bering Strait. The one at a place called " Red Dog Dock" north of Kotzebue has some interesting air temps at 67F with 25 knot offshore winds.
The other buoy near Nome has air temperatures over 70F
 
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?lat1=65.011N&lon1=169.454W&uom=E&dist=250

Here is the Bering Strait SST   Temperature contour map by NOAA

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/beringst.fc.gif

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3248
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 525
  • Likes Given: 206
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1774 on: June 01, 2016, 07:28:29 AM »
Below is a link to a couple buoys close to the Bering Strait. The one at a place called " Red Dog Dock" north of Kotzebue has some interesting air temps at 67F with 25 knot offshore winds.
The other buoy near Nome has air temperatures over 70F
 <snip>

That is just sick. 

All NW Alaska is at least 10C above normal.   a lot of it is higher.
This space for Rent.

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1330
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 46
  • Likes Given: 29
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1775 on: June 01, 2016, 08:31:58 AM »
Jdallen: you might have seen my earlier post that Barrow hit a record daily high at 44oF by monday? Or 6,7oC if we convert it.

In any case, as IJIS hasn't come up with their numbers but Ui Bremen shows a fairly constant melt rate before the outage I think we could get a good approximation by extrapolating the 4 missing days with the melt rate for the 4 days of May 24-27. If I do that I get a SIE of roughly 10,47 Mn km2 for May  31. Let's see what IJIS come up with later!!!


//LMV

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1845
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 550
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1776 on: June 01, 2016, 08:40:38 AM »
The 00z gfs continues to show the ESS get massacred with extremely anomolously warm low level air mass simply in place. 

A general weak flow from Siberia where daily high temps all the way to the coast will be approaching 25C+.

As modis already shows albedo has plummeted and skies are clear.
 
Also a very persistent flow a long fetch of cyclonic winds pumping ice towards the Atlantic
Side with major GIS and CAA ridging will slowly create space which lowers albedo.

Also the CAA snow pack will be anialated.

« Last Edit: June 01, 2016, 08:54:02 AM by Frivolousz21 »
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1845
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 550
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1777 on: June 01, 2016, 09:00:25 AM »
The 00zgfs ensemble mean has a nasty large scale dipole anomaly.


Wow
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1845
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 550
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1778 on: June 01, 2016, 09:05:00 AM »
The 00eURO is very bad with a big time dipole after absolutely crushing the ESS
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

bbr2314

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1817
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 163
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1779 on: June 01, 2016, 09:17:53 AM »
While the models are looking increasingly grim I think the output will actually halt extent drops temporarily. The pack is going to be butchered across all sides and volume will take a major hit but with the cyclone near the Kara Sea, there is going to be a *massive* push into Fram from the CAB.

Though the edge of the pack will continue to take hits, this will result in a temporary but dramatic expansion into the Atlantic side.

I suspect what comes after is large gashes ripping through the main CAB as the stretched ice begins straining and shattering under the influence of such enormous heat. DMI's future concentration maps seem to show the start of this, as does HYCOM. This means area will soon begin to nosedive as warm waters creeping around the edge of the Arctic are suddenly going to have increasingly open paths between each other.

Basically it would seem the entire pack may soon split into different sections, with a bulk of the CAB set to drift towards the jaws of the Greenland Sea...

http://ocean.dmi.dk/anim/index.uk.php


BornFromTheVoid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1221
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 546
  • Likes Given: 176
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1780 on: June 01, 2016, 09:21:35 AM »
Here's an animations of SLP and 500hPa heights for the first 7 days of June 2012.



You can view the forecast charts for this June here http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

Here are the 850hPa temps for June 7th 2012 and what's forecast for this June 7th.





While the start of this June isn't looking great for the ice, it's nowhere near as bad as 2012
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

bbr2314

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1817
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 163
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1781 on: June 01, 2016, 09:29:15 AM »
I strongly disagree. In fact, the cold being where it is this year is useless if all the ice it's currently over ends up being exported. The pack is toast!

BornFromTheVoid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1221
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 546
  • Likes Given: 176
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1782 on: June 01, 2016, 09:50:32 AM »
We get spells of weather increasing Fram transport and decreasing it every summer. The upcoming pattern looks like increasing the transpolar drift for a while, we're yet to see if the strongly -ve NAO will become a lasting feature this summer or just make the occasional appearance.

Now, I'm not saying we're going to see a massive slow down in ice loss like what we've had in recent years, I think we will remain lowest on record to the end of June at least. But, compared to the warmth and strong high pressures of early June 2012 and 2007 (which had over half the Arctic above 0C and Beaufort above 15C at the 850hPa level)early June this year, while bad, appears relatively tame in comparison.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Tealight

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 446
    • View Profile
    • CryosphereComputing
  • Liked: 145
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1783 on: June 01, 2016, 10:30:05 AM »
Is it enough to just use daily energy values for modeling ice melt or does the intensity of sunlight play a role too?

I know that you can set a stick on fire with a magnifying glass, so ice might melt/degrade more quickly under high intensity sunlight.

If intensity has some effect then it explains part of the June cliff.

abbottisgone

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 297
  • "...I'm a rock'n'roll star,...... YES I ARE!!!!!!"
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1784 on: June 01, 2016, 10:36:52 AM »
Still not sure what will happen if most of arctic is water by September. I know Im wrong but wouldnt it be funny if it just refroze in late October and we had the normal cover by December.

Thats a dream isnt it

More likely winds floods and blizzards for the Winter on a regular and extreme basis.

I've pondered this a lot. I think there's a major discontinuity when it enters the "mostly water" situation - since then the water is absorbing heat, not just using it to melt ice.  It'd also be losing more heat to the atmosphere via atmosphere, injecting moisture into the usual polar desert. It'd be warm enough to resist the "usual refreeze" for some time - maybe a matter of weeks?  But effectively we'd have a shorter freezing season.

All that would have all kinds of wacky impacts on the winter.  Wouldn't say "winds floods and blizzards", and not sure what "regular and extreme basis" means, but definitely different.  We'd lose some of the usual thermohaline impact, for instance. High latitude deserts like Barrow might see a lot more precip, too.

I think we'd see a much more moderate (in the sense of not as cold) atmosphere at higher latitude, and the polar vortex wouldn't set up nearly as soon. I think the decreased temperature gradient would ultimately moderate weather, not increase its severity, as it's thermodynamically more stable...  but it's hard to really say.

I think the fun really starts when the arctic moves away form the triple point, and what will matter is how long it is away from that point. Other effects are linear and variations on what we've seen before, imo.
Heat still wants to distribute itself meaning it will rise to the cold of space as usual and alter the jet Stream in unusual and frightening ways!

Markets will Panic as a result!
..
But I left school and grew my hair
They didn't understand
They wanted me to be respected as
A doctor or a lawyer man
But I had other plans..........

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4744
  • Stay Home, Save Lives
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 507
  • Likes Given: 44
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1785 on: June 01, 2016, 10:47:46 AM »
An article from Science Nordic:

Arctic sea ice at a record low

Quote
The extent of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is already at a record low for this time of year and scientists are concerned as to how much ice will survive the 2016 melt season.

“This is the lowest ever extent of sea ice for this time of year since 1978, when [satellite observations began],” says Rasmus Tonboe, from the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), who has been monitoring the progression of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean.

The extent of summer sea ice has been consistently low since 2007 and especially so in the last four years. Tonboe and colleagues are keeping a close eye on the next few weeks, which will give them a better indication of how the rest of the melt season will progress throughout the Arctic.

Here's one of the accompanying videos:



In news from further south:

Quote
An unusually early breakup of sea ice has caused problems elsewhere in the Arctic. This week, DMI scientists scrambled to recover a weather station situated on the ice in Inglefield Bredning fjord, near Qaanaaq, northwest Greenland.

The fjord ice was retreating by half a kilometre a day, which is exceptional for the time of year.

“We’ve retrieved the equipment now, with the help of the local hunters, who help DMI with logistics on the ice up there,” says Martin Nissen, an ice advisor from DMI.


Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Peter Ellis

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 619
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 34
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1786 on: June 01, 2016, 12:09:43 PM »
Is it enough to just use daily energy values for modeling ice melt or does the intensity of sunlight play a role too?
What do you think "daily energy values" measure, apart from the intensity of sunlight?  Intense sunlight is more intense because it carries more energy!

Richard Rathbone

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 820
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 136
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1787 on: June 01, 2016, 02:10:50 PM »
Is it enough to just use daily energy values for modeling ice melt or does the intensity of sunlight play a role too?
What do you think "daily energy values" measure, apart from the intensity of sunlight?  Intense sunlight is more intense because it carries more energy!

They measure a daily average not a noon peak. And conceivably e.g. if there is a threshold for surface melt that is being met for a few hours around noon, but not at the daily average, that could matter a lot.

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7756
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 1133
  • Likes Given: 521
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1788 on: June 01, 2016, 02:16:36 PM »
there is going to be a *massive* push into Fram from the CAB.

Though the edge of the pack will continue to take hits, this will result in a temporary but dramatic expansion into the Atlantic side.



 ;)
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

seaicesailor

  • Guest
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1789 on: June 01, 2016, 05:14:40 PM »
It is bad, but not "that" bad. We'll see the monthly anomaly.
The ESS is getting fried with this lack of land snow nevertheless.


JimboOmega

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 140
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1790 on: June 01, 2016, 05:31:37 PM »
Is it enough to just use daily energy values for modeling ice melt or does the intensity of sunlight play a role too?
What do you think "daily energy values" measure, apart from the intensity of sunlight?  Intense sunlight is more intense because it carries more energy!

They measure a daily average not a noon peak. And conceivably e.g. if there is a threshold for surface melt that is being met for a few hours around noon, but not at the daily average, that could matter a lot.

Another quick albedo question - if a melt pond forms, then refreezes (as smooth ice), is that higher, lower, or about the same albedo as the "rough" (and possibly snow covered) ice that was already there?

marcel_g

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 126
    • View Profile
    • Art by Marcel Guldemond
  • Liked: 55
  • Likes Given: 368
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1791 on: June 01, 2016, 05:35:46 PM »

Another quick albedo question - if a melt pond forms, then refreezes (as smooth ice), is that higher, lower, or about the same albedo as the "rough" (and possibly snow covered) ice that was already there?

THere's a photo on the Barrow thread showing frozen melt ponds that are quite blue, so it looks like as long as the surface stays snow free, the albedo stays pretty much the same whether that melt pond has a frozen surface or not. I'd also guess that even if it freezes through, it would still act as a lens to transmit sunlight down into to the ice floe underneath.

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6302
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2315
  • Likes Given: 1960
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1792 on: June 01, 2016, 05:37:40 PM »
Another quick albedo question - if a melt pond forms, then refreezes (as smooth ice), is that higher, lower, or about the same albedo as the "rough" (and possibly snow covered) ice that was already there?

A refrozen melt pond is more absorbing (lower albedo?) than the previous ice as far as I know. But it might be better to pose these in the questions thread or one of the science threads.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3248
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 525
  • Likes Given: 206
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1793 on: June 01, 2016, 05:43:09 PM »
While the start of this June isn't looking great for the ice, it's nowhere near as bad as 2012
I'm in the same general camp as bbr2314 here, BFtV.  To my eye, those 850hPa temps look pretty similar in so far as what they imply for the ice.

I think that the dipole and movement of ice towards the Atlantic side may be more serious than we realize.  It's not just the Fram that's consuming ice.  Just north of Svalbard running from the Fram approaches to just SE of the Franz Josef islands there's been a steady intrusion of exceptionally warm Atlantic water that's persisted for months.

We've followed it some, and there have been images posted showing the margin of the pack disintegrating as it gets swept over it, going back as far as early April.  So, I think the "Killing zone"  for the ice isn't just the Fram; it's a 1500KM long stretch running from the Fram past Svalbard all the way to the Barents.

The images I've attached - NOAA SST's and my 'SuperFram' frame from EOSDIS Worldview highlight what I'm talking about.

Then there's the backside.  The sea exposure opening up in the Chukchi, ESS and Laptev as a result of the dipole is going to be lethal.  There's nearly 3 million KM2 getting hammered right now, and we're about to reduce the albedo in the region (overall) by another 5-10%.

If this year isn't quite 2012 weather-wise, I think it's going to be a close cousin.
« Last Edit: June 01, 2016, 05:49:45 PM by jdallen »
This space for Rent.

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4744
  • Stay Home, Save Lives
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 507
  • Likes Given: 44
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1794 on: June 01, 2016, 06:26:41 PM »
THere's a photo on the Barrow thread showing frozen melt ponds that are quite blue

It these are the melt ponds you're referring to, they're not exactly "frozen":

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

marcel_g

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 126
    • View Profile
    • Art by Marcel Guldemond
  • Liked: 55
  • Likes Given: 368
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1795 on: June 01, 2016, 06:50:26 PM »
THere's a photo on the Barrow thread showing frozen melt ponds that are quite blue

It these are the melt ponds you're referring to, they're not exactly "frozen":


Haha, wow, nice pic. Not at all frozen; I guess I misinterpreted the slushy snow mixed in there as being refrozen.

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1330
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 46
  • Likes Given: 29
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1796 on: June 01, 2016, 09:08:59 PM »
12z op ecmwf run is rather bizarre. Feels like an outlier but what ifit would materialize..... 1035 hpa high pressure situated in CAB by June 11 covering the whole Arctic basin..

JimboOmega

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 140
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1797 on: June 01, 2016, 09:16:53 PM »
(Advance apologies if I did the image linking wrong, feel free to send me a PM if I'm messing it up)

So I'm looking at the NSIDC (first image), everything looks roughly as expected...

Then I'm looking at ASMR2(second image), and wow, Polynyas EVERYWHERE.  Where NSIDC shows ice all the way up to the Siberian coast consistently, there's big patches of fully open water on ASMR2.  North of Wrangel and the New Siberian Islands, all along the coast east of Novaya Zemlya, and it looks like the whole of the ESS wants to break free.

Is this short lived, ignorable, typical for the season, no big deal, instrument anomaly, or anything like that?  Or is this big open water coming?  Especially the area west of the New Siberian islands, I can't see that staying open as it's surrounded by ice on 3 sides.  But it looks like it grew vs the day before.

Andir

  • New ice
  • Posts: 13
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1798 on: June 01, 2016, 09:38:23 PM »
Hi together,
Short question:
Is it usual, that Hudson and Baffin Bay is melting from the north side? And if so, why?
Best Regards

werther

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 747
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 31
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1799 on: June 01, 2016, 10:41:54 PM »
MODIS today shows 1.1 Mkm2 sea ice in the Chukchi, East Sib and Laptev Seas in blue hues. Extensive melt ponding. In some places, FI the Buor Khaya Gulf, this happened 'in a flash'.

Temps remain extremely high on the whole stretch from Bering Strait to Taymir all through the next eight days.
I can't remember this region undergoing such massive warming this time of the year.

The large American-Arctic coastal ice-free zone-to-be: there's a dispersed zone of ice left East of Cape Lisburne (only about 30 kim wide) and the attachment NW of Barrow (now a mere 40 km wide and almost passable along the fast ice boundary).

In the Labrador Sea, Hudson Strait is open. In Baffin Bay, connection of the Northern Waters polynia and the open water on Greenlands west coast is a matter of days.

Given the ECMWF forecast (dipole forming now and holding for about 5 days), I think '16 losses will closely follow those seen in '12.