Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: The 2016 melting season  (Read 1641122 times)

Rob Dekker

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2386
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 123
  • Likes Given: 119
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1900 on: June 05, 2016, 07:44:24 AM »
A-team, thanks for keeping track of these floes in the Beaufort.
But regarding your latest animation :

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=1493.0;attach=30344;image

Is that the same floe as the big one that you measured a while ago, that did not reduce in size ?
Because it seems to me that that big one is now right next to Beaufort open water, and your animation suggests it is still surrounded by other ice floes.

Could you please zoom out and point out where your floe is situated ?
This is our planet. This is our time.
Let's not waste either.

6roucho

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 296
  • Finance geek
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1901 on: June 05, 2016, 08:55:20 AM »
Apparently sea ice extent INCREASED today.  10,350,720 for June 3 and 10,354,257 for June 4 = an increase of 3,537 km2.  Go figure.

Figures from the CSV file download:
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/vishop-extent.html?N

Yes. up 17.4 k km^2 according to Wipneus' data. And sea ice area dropped 97.3 k km^2 according to the same report. Go figure.
Like a crowd running onto a football pitch at the end of a game.

Sourabh

  • New ice
  • Posts: 58
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1902 on: June 05, 2016, 09:39:07 AM »
Next ten days are going to be interesting to watch as 2012 starts its madness from tomorrow. Wipneus's area data is telling us that area is declining rapidly (250k in two days).

As Jdallen on IJIS thread pointed out, ice is spreading out, which is slowing down rate of decline in extent. But, at the same time, more melt ponds and thus melting momentum is being created. I think extent numbers will also be in free fall in next two or three days.


It would be really ominous if 2016 follows 2012 June madness, given clear sky, lowest volume, lowest extent etc.

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4519
  • Stay Home, Save Lives
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 431
  • Likes Given: 30
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1903 on: June 05, 2016, 11:10:50 AM »
Or is the profiler hopelessly broken down like all the other ITP buoys, with no explanation provided at the ITP site, no design lessons shared, and no prospects for any further 2016 melt season data?

FishOutOfWater suggests the possibility that ITP 89 fell foul of the Northwind Ridge:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/06/summer-2016-surface-melt-takes-off/#comment-214708
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7616
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 982
  • Likes Given: 501
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1904 on: June 05, 2016, 11:13:38 AM »
It would be really ominous if 2016 follows 2012 June madness, given clear sky, lowest volume, lowest extent etc.

There could be a couple of big drops, given the slow daily decreases of the past week, but overall the weather forecast doesn't like very conducive for big losses, or anything resembling the 2012 June Cliff. The weather looks more like the dominance of cyclones that we saw in 2013 and 2014.

But as you say, high temps over where some of the thickest ice is (according to PIOMAS and CryoSat) in the ESS and CAA, may help to keep 2016 low(est) during August and September.

More (high pressure) is needed though to threaten the 2012 record.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

magnamentis

  • Guest
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1905 on: June 05, 2016, 01:03:04 PM »
increase in 2012 was larger, i thought it better to link than to cross-post, image can be found in the linked post:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,230.msg79258.html#msg79258

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4519
  • Stay Home, Save Lives
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 431
  • Likes Given: 30
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1906 on: June 05, 2016, 01:40:00 PM »
It's a bit cloudy there today but the latest JAXA/ADS map reveals that surface melting has increased, particularly over the Chukchi Sea:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/06/summer-2016-surface-melt-takes-off/#Jun-05
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Adam Ash

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 309
    • View Profile
    • The 100 metre line
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 22
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1907 on: June 05, 2016, 03:56:57 PM »
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/arctic-could-become-ice-free-for-first-time-in-more-than-100000-years-claims-leading-scientist-a7065781.html

'Professor Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University predicts we could see ‘an area of less than one million square kilometres for September of this year'

I hope he's wrong, I fear he may be right.

timallard

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 141
  • designer
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1908 on: June 05, 2016, 04:14:28 PM »
It's a bit cloudy there today but the latest JAXA/ADS map reveals that surface melting has increased, particularly over the Chukchi Sea:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/06/summer-2016-surface-melt-takes-off/#Jun-05
I note that the entire Bering Strait area is free of ice and eastward along the shore almost free to the MacKenzie, this is from Pacific water flow and increases flow from the Atlantic into the basin by causing a large-scale circulation.

Imagine that still being ice right now what that would mean over the next week as that shoreline opens entirely then usually a rapid retreat seaward with now rotten ice the main type of ice.
-tom

seaicesailor

  • Guest
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1909 on: June 05, 2016, 07:31:57 PM »
It would be really ominous if 2016 follows 2012 June madness, given clear sky, lowest volume, lowest extent etc.

There could be a couple of big drops, given the slow daily decreases of the past week, but overall the weather forecast doesn't like very conducive for big losses, or anything resembling the 2012 June Cliff. The weather looks more like the dominance of cyclones that we saw in 2013 and 2014.

But as you say, high temps over where some of the thickest ice is (according to PIOMAS and CryoSat) in the ESS and CAA, may help to keep 2016 low(est) during August and September.

More (high pressure) is needed though to threaten the 2012 record.

A small difference with 2013 is that the greenland high is stronger and will be pulling warmth toward the north of Canada. Below is the SLP composite for last 2013 May week (taken from ASIG, thanks). At least two of the previous weeks and the whole June 2013 had even weaker Greenland high or even a low.
We'll see. For the moment heat will go on in siberian side.
As another post showed, above zero temps all around the Arctic.

Quantum

  • New ice
  • Posts: 99
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1910 on: June 06, 2016, 02:18:34 AM »
Sorry, really stupid question but does the sea ice freeze and melt at different temperatures? I'd have thought the sea ice would be fresh (at least compared to the seawater) so would melt more or less at 0C. So for top melt does the air temperature have to be above 0C?

Okono

  • New ice
  • Posts: 66
  • Ignorance ↔ bliss ∧ you're ¬ happy ∴
    • View Profile
    • Introspecting Me
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 160
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1911 on: June 06, 2016, 02:44:09 AM »
Sorry, really stupid question but does the sea ice freeze and melt at different temperatures?

http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/%7elouisab/sedpage/basics.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brine_rejection

The ice controls the temperature as much as the temperature controls the ice.
« Last Edit: June 06, 2016, 02:50:25 AM by Okono »
Everyone is their own worst critic, but autists are our only critics.

Greenbelt

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 144
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 24
  • Likes Given: 20
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1912 on: June 06, 2016, 02:47:47 AM »
Sunny afternoon at obuoy 14 located roughly on the line between Barrow ane the pole where there's a a higher pressure ridge between the lows I guess. Temp about -5dC it looks like.


abbottisgone

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 297
  • "...I'm a rock'n'roll star,...... YES I ARE!!!!!!"
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1913 on: June 06, 2016, 05:40:36 AM »
Sorry, really stupid question but does the sea ice freeze and melt at different temperatures? I'd have thought the sea ice would be fresh (at least compared to the seawater) so would melt more or less at 0C. So for top melt does the air temperature have to be above 0C?
...yes, because when the salt water freezes the salt inhibits freezing so it freezes at more like minus 2!

The ice will melt at 0 of course so you are correct,.. They melt and freeze at different temperatures.

..
But I left school and grew my hair
They didn't understand
They wanted me to be respected as
A doctor or a lawyer man
But I had other plans..........

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1685
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 290
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1914 on: June 06, 2016, 07:28:51 AM »
All models and there ensembles show a nasty dipole anomaly taking over next weekend
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Paddy

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 605
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 40
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1915 on: June 06, 2016, 08:34:57 AM »
'Professor Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University predicts we could see ‘an area of less than one million square kilometres for September of this year'

I hope he's wrong, I fear he may be right.

He's been overly pessimistic before. Most other experts are more conservative in their estimates.

6roucho

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 296
  • Finance geek
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1916 on: June 06, 2016, 09:17:21 AM »
'Professor Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University predicts we could see ‘an area of less than one million square kilometres for September of this year'

I hope he's wrong, I fear he may be right.

He's been overly pessimistic before. Most other experts are more conservative in their estimates.
He's not actually being pessimistic, but a formal outlier. He predicted an ice-free Arctic by 2016 in 2012. His model of sea ice decay appears to predict a state change and so provides a different outcome to others.

His concerns are shared by some people on here, since these kinds of complex systems do sometimes behave in that way. That said, the precise timing of such discontinuities is generally considered to be impossible to predict, and his claims must be viewed in that light.

In other physical domains, where we have state changes from the past to observe and experiment with, work is being done in applied mathematics on sensitivity to sudden collapse. It might be that Wadhams' work is along those lines.

Is anyone on here familiar with the details of Wadhams' modelling?
« Last Edit: June 06, 2016, 04:29:30 PM by 6roucho »

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7616
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 982
  • Likes Given: 501
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1917 on: June 06, 2016, 09:40:38 AM »
All models and there ensembles show a nasty dipole anomaly taking over next weekend

Yes, the forecast models were showing weak cyclones taking over, but now they tend to a reinforcement of the high-pressure on the American side of the Arctic, pushing back into the Arctic Ocean again.

The current set-up is interesting too, with lows sandwiched between two high-pressure zones over the coasts of Canada and Siberia (open skies + heat over the remaining snow cover and ESS fast ice). With the expansion both towards the Atlantic and the Pacific, I had expected a slowdown, but not as much as JAXA is currently showing.

The next 10 days are going to be exciting, with 2012's monster drop starting about now (at the time). If the current forecast comes about, big drops should come into play next week or so.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

seaicesailor

  • Guest
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1918 on: June 06, 2016, 10:12:21 AM »
All models and there ensembles show a nasty dipole anomaly taking over next weekend

The current set-up is interesting too, with lows sandwiched between two high-pressure zones over the coasts of Canada and Siberia (open skies + heat over the remaining snow cover and ESS fast ice). With the expansion both towards the Atlantic and the Pacific, I had expected a slowdown, but not as much as JAXA is currently showing.


Add this caused by that warmth in the continents, snow cover anomaly worsening by the day. This will hurt for the rest of the season (below June 5 NH snow cover anomaly. Rutgers University global snow lab)

F.Tnioli

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 740
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 120
  • Likes Given: 35
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1919 on: June 06, 2016, 11:10:18 AM »
There could be a couple of big drops, given the slow daily decreases of the past week, but overall the weather forecast doesn't like very conducive for big losses, or anything resembling the 2012 June Cliff. The weather looks more like the dominance of cyclones that we saw in 2013 and 2014.

But as you say, high temps over where some of the thickest ice is (according to PIOMAS and CryoSat) in the ESS and CAA, may help to keep 2016 low(est) during August and September.

More (high pressure) is needed though to threaten the 2012 record.
I wouldn't be so sure about the "needed" part, though. See, as mentioned above, all the extra open water "early" absorbing all the extra heat, - quite much of that will end up doing extra bottom melt, gotta keep that in mind. As well as above mentioned "possibly unprecedented" hot air going in from no-snow-cover lands. As well as possibly very ambient, but overall massive extra heat from El-Nino, creeping into from many directions.

Overall, i feel more and more that 2016 will end up being the record season in terms of number of "woops, we underestimated how fast things can melt out there" cases, _especially_ in July.

Our mileage may vary, - all the above is "before strong weather", of course.


http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/arctic-could-become-ice-free-for-first-time-in-more-than-100000-years-claims-leading-scientist-a7065781.html

'Professor Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University predicts we could see ‘an area of less than one million square kilometres for September of this year'

I hope he's wrong, I fear he may be right.
Same! And, thanks for posting. I didn't see it myself, yet.

By the way, note how Peter uses "area" for "<1M km2" mark. Not extent. I am doing the same. Perhaps he is doing it for same reasons i do - that being, i deem it quite possible that when <1M km2 area will be 1st achieved, extent would remain much higher; and another reason being, in terms of albedo, evaporation, wave action and several other important dynamics, and even much in refreeze terms, it is exactly _area_ of sea ice that matters most, - not the extent.
« Last Edit: June 06, 2016, 11:36:05 AM by F.Tnioli »
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

plinius

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 403
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1920 on: June 06, 2016, 11:42:06 AM »
..yes, because when the salt water freezes the salt inhibits freezing so it freezes at more like minus 2!
The ice will melt at 0 of course so you are correct,.. They melt and freeze at different temperatures.

I believe your reasoning is incorrect for bottom melt as long as the ocean below does not form a fresh water lens.

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7616
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 982
  • Likes Given: 501
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1921 on: June 06, 2016, 11:47:57 AM »
Quote
I wouldn't be so sure about the "needed" part, though. See, as mentioned above, all the extra open water "early" absorbing all the extra heat, - quite much of that will end up doing extra bottom melt, gotta keep that in mind. As well as above mentioned "possibly unprecedented" hot air going in from no-snow-cover lands. As well as possibly very ambient, but overall massive extra heat from El-Nino, creeping into from many directions.

You may be right. It's difficult to assess right now how much energy is going into the build-up of melting momentum.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Laurent

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2536
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 34
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1922 on: June 06, 2016, 12:40:30 PM »
Precipitations until next Monday :
Before there was a lot of snow on land, now it is replaced by rain almost everywhere (mainly Greenland).
http://www.weather-forecast.com/maps/Arctic?symbols=none&type=prec

Laurent

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2536
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 34
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1923 on: June 06, 2016, 12:56:25 PM »
Cracks approaching pristine Lincoln sea.

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4519
  • Stay Home, Save Lives
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 431
  • Likes Given: 30
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1924 on: June 06, 2016, 01:39:58 PM »
..yes, because when the salt water freezes the salt inhibits freezing so it freezes at more like minus 2!
The ice will melt at 0 of course so you are correct,.. They melt and freeze at different temperatures.

I believe your reasoning is incorrect for bottom melt as long as the ocean below does not form a fresh water lens.

Bottom melt does indeed occur below 0 degrees Celsius. Some empirical evidence from some multi-year ice:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/06/summer-2016-surface-melt-takes-off/#comment-214715
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

F.Tnioli

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 740
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 120
  • Likes Given: 35
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1925 on: June 06, 2016, 02:03:58 PM »
Yeah, well, we don't have "much" multi-year ice these days, though. Most of it is FYI, is it not. Anyhow, i don't think it's of much importance, - be it -1° melt, or -2, or 0, or anything inbetween. Why? Because whatever it is, it won't change much in compare to say 2012 or 2015, especially when integrated over the whole basin (regionally it'll vary a bit from year to year because of somewhat different MYI/FYI combinations for any given region, sure, but still it's one very little detail me thinks).

So for the forum, i think it's good to settle that this specific feature of ice remains pretty much a constant, especially during any given season.
« Last Edit: June 06, 2016, 02:17:59 PM by F.Tnioli »
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

Quantum

  • New ice
  • Posts: 99
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1926 on: June 06, 2016, 02:05:47 PM »
..yes, because when the salt water freezes the salt inhibits freezing so it freezes at more like minus 2!
The ice will melt at 0 of course so you are correct,.. They melt and freeze at different temperatures.

I believe your reasoning is incorrect for bottom melt as long as the ocean below does not form a fresh water lens.

Bottom melt does indeed occur below 0 degrees Celsius. Some empirical evidence from some multi-year ice:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/06/summer-2016-surface-melt-takes-off/#comment-214715

Yes so the intuition that top melt requires t>0C whereas bottom melt requires t>-1.8C is correct?

F.Tnioli

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 740
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 120
  • Likes Given: 35
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1927 on: June 06, 2016, 02:08:30 PM »
...
Yes so the intuition that top melt requires t>0C whereas bottom melt requires t>-1.8C is correct?
Generally - yes, afaik. I remember this being discussed in past seasons with similar conclusion, give or take very few .1s. Can't see why it could change (much) for this one.
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

Flocke

  • New ice
  • Posts: 20
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1928 on: June 06, 2016, 02:18:29 PM »
http://www.weather-forecast.com/maps/Arctic?symbols=none&type=prec
On 10th at 6 am there is a high which morphs into a low over Laptev on 11th at 6 am and back into a high on 12th at 6 pm. There's also a L/H transition over Kara on the 9th. Weather patterns do change in the Arctic ...

romett1

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 232
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 9
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1929 on: June 06, 2016, 02:37:44 PM »
Amundsen Gulf yesterday - more open water.

F.Tnioli

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 740
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 120
  • Likes Given: 35
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1930 on: June 06, 2016, 02:38:48 PM »
...
On 10th at 6 am there is a high which morphs into a low over Laptev on 11th at 6 am and back into a high on 12th at 6 pm. There's also a L/H transition over Kara on the 9th. Weather patterns do change in the Arctic ...
Sure do.

Small comparison. "Greenhouse Earth" some 100+ millions years ago had its Arctic being ~0°C annual average surface temperature (as a whole). Today, warmest place of Eastern Siberia - Peschanaya Bay of Lake Baikal ("Sandy Bay") - is ~+0.4°C annual average temperature. The bay is ice-free for more than half a year, and weather patterns over it are wild indeed, up to and including regular formation of tall thunderstorm clouds late autumn / early winter (because of huge evaporation of cooling-down waters before refreeze could start).

Now, as more and more energy will be flowing through the athmosphere in the Arctic, we'll see more and more "wild" things happening there. This is both in the sense of ongoing melt season as we approach max insolation time with lots of extra heat going in from lower latitudes in the same time, and just as well in terms of ongoing trend of year-to-year Arctic amplification in general.

P.S. Say, funny case when the same line is _both_ on-topic and (formally) off-topic, in very same time. :D

P.P.S. Actual winter thunderstorms, while rare, are known to happen over Baikal (takes more than just formation of proper clouds for a thunderstorm to happen). Who knows, may be thunderstorms will become regular part of Arctic weather in the future, late parts of a melt season, considering amounts of energy and surface of waters involved. If so, then it would probably look like this, minus buildings, of course (picture taken in Irkutsk city, not far from Baikal lake, december):

« Last Edit: June 06, 2016, 02:47:18 PM by F.Tnioli »
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

6roucho

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 296
  • Finance geek
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1931 on: June 06, 2016, 03:07:39 PM »
A chilling image (literally) F.Tnioli.

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5488
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1673
  • Likes Given: 1588
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1932 on: June 06, 2016, 05:00:23 PM »
Regarding bottom melt, I believe the claim used to be that warm water around the arctic don't help much as the ice recedes over the season. There is enough energy in the ocean, but not where the ice is, unless a GAC should come around.
This year it seems this claim might not be true anymore, as the ice is so mobile it might come to the warm water instead of waiting patiently where it's cold and safe. And lots of warm water should be avialable due to the early albedo feedback. We shall see.

meddoc

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 261
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1933 on: June 06, 2016, 06:27:02 PM »
Regarding all that heat in the oceans (around 10e 22 Joules), I've already calculated that around
10e 16 Joules are required to melt an ice- mass of 25,000 km3 and at an average temperature of -10 C.
So, theoretically there is so much heat that it is ready to melt the ice 6 orders of magnitude over and over, again.
Even if we say, there's only 1% of this water in the Arctic- it's still 4 orders of magnitude.

Pretty scary. You just need a millionth of this in the right place & the right time.

F.Tnioli

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 740
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 120
  • Likes Given: 35
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1934 on: June 06, 2016, 06:40:48 PM »
Regarding all that heat in the oceans (around 10e 22 Joules), I've already calculated that around
10e 16 Joules are required to melt an ice- mass of 25,000 km3 and at an average temperature of -10 C.
So, theoretically there is so much heat that it is ready to melt the ice 6 orders of magnitude over and over, again.
Even if we say, there's only 1% of this water in the Arctic- it's still 4 orders of magnitude.

Pretty scary. You just need a millionth of this in the right place & the right time.
Time is also a big factor here, in some cases.

Say, with El-Nino warming up lots of water in Pacific ocean's tropics, some tiny part of that heat ends up reaching Arctic (and much like in your estimate, that "tiny" part probably converts to a big extra melt of Arctic ice, that is), - but the time it takes to get there is quite substantial. I once checked (past year, was it) where Pacific surface currents go, and how fast; iirc i got me an impression that it'd take some 8...12 months for tiny bits of "warmer than average" tropical water to end up anywhere close to Alaska, for example. Thing is, we had warmer than average waters in much of Pacific ocean last year, and so, now is the time - more or less, - the Arctic would get an impact from that.
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18658
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1936
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1935 on: June 06, 2016, 08:28:49 PM »
The attached CCI-Reanalyzer 6-day Arctic Surface Air Temp forecast beginning June 6 2016, shows a lot of above freezing temperatures coming-up this week
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1274
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 27
  • Likes Given: 22
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1936 on: June 06, 2016, 09:05:23 PM »
I might be wrong, but if my memory is correct positive PDO is favoring +AO e.g more cyclonic weather. Correct or crap?

solartim27

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 561
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 32
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1937 on: June 06, 2016, 09:09:20 PM »
Sorry, really stupid question but does the sea ice freeze and melt at different temperatures?

http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/%7elouisab/sedpage/basics.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brine_rejection

The ice controls the temperature as much as the temperature controls the ice.
There was an interesting thread on salt rejection forming Brinicles a while ago, with cool videos.
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,223.msg3999.html#msg3999
FNORD

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7616
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 982
  • Likes Given: 501
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1938 on: June 06, 2016, 09:22:28 PM »
Sorry, really stupid question but does the sea ice freeze and melt at different temperatures?

http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/%7elouisab/sedpage/basics.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brine_rejection

The ice controls the temperature as much as the temperature controls the ice.
There was an interesting thread on salt rejection forming Brinicles a while ago, with cool videos.
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,223.msg3999.html#msg3999

And there is an even more interesting thread called Stupid Questions.

And again for my friend F. Tnioli: Either stay on-topic, or use less words when going off-topic (and then go look for the appropriate thread if you feel you need to go off-topic for a second consecutive time).
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7616
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 982
  • Likes Given: 501
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1939 on: June 06, 2016, 09:23:32 PM »
In the meantime. Going, going...
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

JimboOmega

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 140
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1940 on: June 06, 2016, 09:31:15 PM »
In the meantime. Going, going...

Given that the GFS wants to pump temperatures in that last snowy patch of central siberia up to around 30 C, I don't think we'll have to worry about snow melt next week. Heck, CCI doesn't even really show below freezing minimums for most of that area, except for the edge right along the ocean.

Wonder when we'll see the melt-pond covered ice actually starts to disappear?  Once the blowtorch has gotten through that last bit of snow, what's left?  The ESS already got quite the blast.

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7616
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 982
  • Likes Given: 501
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1941 on: June 06, 2016, 09:32:27 PM »
We thought those Pacific polynyas would be connected within a couple of days? The Arctic said NO.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7616
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 982
  • Likes Given: 501
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1942 on: June 06, 2016, 09:38:48 PM »
Over on the Atlantic side the icecookiemonster can't keep up either. Up to now, we had spectacular ice edge retreat on both sides of the Arctic. Now we have expansion on both sides of the Arctic, causing sea ice extent to stall completely. What an awesome place.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

AmbiValent

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 136
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1943 on: June 06, 2016, 09:54:58 PM »
Correct me if I'm wrong, but this "expansion" on the Atlantic side looks very much like movement towards the Fram to me - in other words, the ice has a death wish.
Bright ice, how can you crack and fail? How can the ice that seemed so mighty suddenly seem so frail?

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1783
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 173
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1944 on: June 06, 2016, 09:55:45 PM »
Remember my comments about 2006 and 2011 and where we would be by June 28th???
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

JimboOmega

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 140
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1945 on: June 06, 2016, 10:09:59 PM »
Correct me if I'm wrong, but this "expansion" on the Atlantic side looks very much like movement towards the Fram to me - in other words, the ice has a death wish.

If there's indeed expansion in the other side, I can't really see it as transport.  But I find an explanation where actual refreeze is happening as exceptionally unlikely. 

I also notice the expanding edge is getting a lot more "sloppy" in the animation posted above, not sure what that means exactly. I want it to mean ice is getting pushed into warm(er) water, but I don't really know.

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5488
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1673
  • Likes Given: 1588
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1946 on: June 06, 2016, 11:18:23 PM »
Correct me if I'm wrong, but this "expansion" on the Atlantic side looks very much like movement towards the Fram to me - in other words, the ice has a death wish.
..
I also notice the expanding edge is getting a lot more "sloppy" in the animation posted above, not sure what that means exactly. I want it to mean ice is getting pushed into warm(er) water, but I don't really know.

Noticed that too. Seems the ice is pushed towards the Svalbard ice-killing zone, not really Fram, and its front edge is getting hammered by the warm ocean.
Why export when you can destroy it locally?

werther

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 730
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 12
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1947 on: June 06, 2016, 11:20:56 PM »
A short reflection from Werther...
MODIS today reveals some clear views and very interesting detail. Lots of small calvings (Amundsen Gulf, thanks), break-ups (The Nares arch) spread on the fringes making room for expanding leads (N of CAA, near East Sib Islands and Severnaya Zemlya).
Rapid spread of surface melt (blue hues; now visible throughout the CAA, over Baffin ice etc.).

This thing is far from over. Some extent number stalling is not really significant in this stage. There's more than enough latent heat, sunshine, warmth advection from the continents and through the seas.

werther

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 730
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 12
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1948 on: June 06, 2016, 11:26:47 PM »
I forgot to mention a detail on the shores of the East Sib Sea. Near the Kolyma delta a large swath of fast ice is getting almost black. I guess snow cover is completely wiped out and ever warmer river water with sediment is spreading under the fast ice.
The sea is just 5-15 m deep, FYI may probably be thicker than 2 m. It is clear as glass. Wonder how fast it goes. It is about 5 days into melt now.

trebuh

  • New ice
  • Posts: 6
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #1949 on: June 07, 2016, 12:06:59 AM »
Regarding all that heat in the oceans (around 10e 22 Joules), I've already calculated that around
10e 16 Joules are required to melt an ice- mass of 25,000 km3 and at an average temperature of -10 C.

Calculate it again