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Neven

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2100 on: June 10, 2016, 09:14:15 PM »
Why are posts based on feelings allowed?

Because this isn't the Borg Forum.  ;D

Quote
-conditions are still significantly worse than 2012 and only continuing to degrade

-the season's first GAC now revving up in the ESS and horrific melt ongoing in all peripheral areas,

-We aren't even halfway through June and we are already seeing evidence the entire Arctic Ocean pack is going to split in two as the mass of the CAB drifts towards oblivion in the Greenland Sea...

-this is pretty horrific.

These are all 'feelings'. But that's okay.  ;)
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magnamentis

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2101 on: June 10, 2016, 09:21:31 PM »
Why are posts based on feelings allowed?

that's an easy one :-)  8)

while i would sign (concur) with every single statement of you post when it comes to an assessment of the facts and the situation, i can tell you very good reasons why feelings should always be welcome.

a) every groundbraking initiative started with a wish, an emotion or a feeling, good and bad ones.

b) the current situation is unprecedented, hence there is no evidence as to the future, only signs and logics.

signs can be interpreted and/or prioritized in different ways from different angles and logics are mostly based on personal knowledge that defers and personal preferences that differ as well. hence if we would prohibit/censor
feelings = opinions we would get nowhere, a dangerous thought indeed while i know that's not what you meant and fully understand what triggered that sentence, simply because i share you feelings, just not the solution, because the contrary of "allow" would be "disallow/prohibit) LOL

feelings are how ideas are born and ideas, at times at least, lead to solutions and that's the ultimate goal, or am i wrong ?
« Last Edit: June 10, 2016, 09:28:52 PM by magnamentis »

bbr2314

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2102 on: June 10, 2016, 09:22:25 PM »
Compare 2016 to 2012. The entire situation is worse everywhere except Hudson Bay (thanks to all the frigid freshwater melt).




Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2103 on: June 10, 2016, 09:41:44 PM »
Comparing current visual images shows that there is a greater area of broken up ice in the Beaufort region than even 2012. 
Not just the Beaufort.
Also the Bering, the Chukchi, the CAB and the Greenland Sea.
Other seas are about even with 2012.

Quote
But on the Russian front, despite some very high heat in recent week or so the ice is clearly in much better shape than 2012 or even 2014. 

Which data did you use to come to that conclusion ?
For example, the ice along the ESS shore looks horrible, while in 2014 it was quite white and pristine.

The primary factor I'm considering is the area of ice pack that can be best described as individual floes.  Possibly jammed together, or with visible water in between.  This is distinct from what I consider as sheet ice, which is a more continuous sheet with cracks or ridges.  The second feature is the amount of red on the 3-6-7 channel.  On these features 2012 does score as worse than 2016 for central Arctic basin (depending on how much of the deteriorated area around Beaufort in 2012 is CAB instead), and about the same for Chukchi.  Greenland Sea and Bering are not relevant.  In my opinion the ESS this year is mostly a solid sheet with fast melt on top, vs 2014 being a much more broken up set of floes with no melt on top, and that this counts as worse condition.  That might change as the fast ice is now breaking up.

PIOMAS thickness shows thicker ice in Laptev ESS and through to chukchi (Russian side).  Thinner ice from Alaskan side of Chukchi and through Beaufort and CAB.  The regional stats for area and extent by Wipneus show less ice in Beaufort than other years, but similar amounts in Chukchi through Laptev. 
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Andreas T

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2104 on: June 10, 2016, 09:49:33 PM »
Compare 2016 to 2012. The entire situation is worse everywhere except Hudson Bay (thanks to all the frigid freshwater melt).
...
these may not be very significant if the predictions you make will turn out as you assert, but look at Kara, Laptev and the ESS in this comparison.
Your views would carry more weight if you would make a distinction between evidence, facts and what you think will happen.

helorime

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2105 on: June 10, 2016, 09:52:26 PM »
bbr2314,  I was just doing the same thing.  :P  Mine includes 2012,2013,2014, and 2016.  I left off 2015 for symmetry.

This year is pretty dramatically different from the others.  Thick ice is simply largely gone.
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Neven

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2106 on: June 10, 2016, 10:03:38 PM »
It's becoming an annual ritual, but I'd like to warn against blindly trusting the ACNFS sea ice thickness maps. The track record isn't all that great, even though it's a very useful model.
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2107 on: June 10, 2016, 10:05:11 PM »
Compare 2016 to 2012. The entire situation is worse everywhere except Hudson Bay (thanks to all the frigid freshwater melt).


Those two models are different, note the different versioning. ACFNS (aka HYCOM) has been upgraded in several aspects, including the ice model.

Right now HYCOM is predicting ice breakup and divergence.
The Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) map does not change much except in the ESS.

I find HYCOM drift predictions very good, as probably is SSTs and SSSs. Last year, to test this model quantitative accuracy in Beaufort, I myself added up daily drift speeds and calculated the resulting ice displacement, and the agreement with the displacement from MODIS images was good within the limits of my rudimentary calculations.

ACFNS (aka HYCOM) is an amazing scientific tool, total respect. However its ice model predicts too thick ice in the CAB that disappears too fast, but as can seen it was much worse in 2012.

helorime

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2108 on: June 10, 2016, 10:20:37 PM »
Neven,

By "not good track record" do you mean by comparing it to other estimates?  Or do you mean internally comparing its estimates to others of its estimates in previous years.  I was doing the latter.
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Neven

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2109 on: June 10, 2016, 10:40:11 PM »
Neven,

By "not good track record" do you mean by comparing it to other estimates?  Or do you mean internally comparing its estimates to others of its estimates in previous years.  I was doing the latter.

I didn't say 'not good', I said: not so great. I use them too sometimes on the ASIB, but with a caveat.

If you compare it to PIOMAS and CryoSat-2 - which are relatively in agreement - you see big differences.

But internally too. Just compare 2015 to 2012. They're almost similar according to ACNFS, whereas we can be pretty certain that 2012 was thinner overall.
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NeilT

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2110 on: June 10, 2016, 10:57:30 PM »
Why are posts based on feelings allowed?

No problem I'll shut up then.

[edit]

I didn't stop to read the following comments.  But, truly.  I had said all I was going to anyway.
« Last Edit: June 10, 2016, 11:04:22 PM by NeilT »
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Neven

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2111 on: June 10, 2016, 11:30:52 PM »

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anotheramethyst

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2112 on: June 10, 2016, 11:59:49 PM »
Quote
I also forgot to say that it's running on 5 year cycles too.

The time frame is way too short to imagine 5-year cycles. What would be the underlying physics of such a cycle?

You are expecting cycles to be a lot longer than 5 years or a lot less than 5 years? or am I misunderstanding that?

[Snip]

One gap of 5 years, a single data point being taken as evidence of a cycle of exactly that length seems a big stretch.

That's what I thought candles was saying :) Also, I agree.  Numbers alone do not make a cycle.  I did see an interesting presentation about deep ocean heat storage creating a cycle, but it was longer than 5 years.  I have searched Google fruitlessly and haven't been able to find it again.  That cycle (iirc) was something like 7-15 years of extra arctic melt and then 7-15 years of anomalous heat in the mid latitude oceans, but it was based on only 1 paper. 

epiphyte

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2113 on: June 11, 2016, 12:45:40 AM »
My feeling is... This year is different. Viz:

JimboOmega

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2114 on: June 11, 2016, 02:19:40 AM »
My feeling is... This year is different. Viz:

If what you and helorime are saying is true, the volume is way less (since thickness is way less, while area/extent) this year vs 2012.

But what I've heard via PIOMAS is that it isn't the case really. So perhaps HYCOM is overly pessimistic?

Then again, your image with the ice in  that state... not smooth and white... is compelling.

notjonathon

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2115 on: June 11, 2016, 02:39:20 AM »
In a different time zone, so late in responding:

Quote
You are expecting cycles to be a lot longer than 5 years or a lot less than 5 years? or am I misunderstanding that?
No, I meant that two examples does not make a series--you would need many more 5-year cycles to discern a trend.

Rob Dekker

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2116 on: June 11, 2016, 06:13:46 AM »
With 2016 still being the record holder for extent, area and volume, and land snow cover also again dropping to record low values, there is a real concern that we may be facing a drastic melting season and possibly a new record low come this September.

Some persistent lows will disperse the ice which keep the "extent" up at this time, despite a very warm Arctic boundary with lots of melting going on all around the Arctic, so the real deal this year may be played once the melting edge reaches further into the CAB, later into the melting season.

And the question is, what kind of ice is there in the CAB this year ?

In Neven's latest PIOMAS ASIB post here :
http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2016/06/piomas-june-2016.html

shows this PIOMAS picture of ice thickness anomaly :


The first thing to note is the horrible situation in the Beaufort.
That is the area where MYI and FYI alike have been melting out due to (warming of) the open waters that appeared there at the end of April.

Also notable is where the thickest ice is situated :
- The ESS coast, which is melting out very fast right now due to that heat wave (in turn caused by snow-free lands and clear skies over the past few weeks), and
- A swat right north of the CAA, an area that has never melted out, and won't this year either.
- A small chunk of thick ice in the Chukchi, which is indeed hanging in there up till now (despite attacks from both ocean and atmospheric heat).

After these anomalies are done (give it a week or two), there is not much more to hold back ice melt deep into the CAB :

Note that there are large swats of ice in the CAB, from the Beaufort to the NP, that are 10 - 30 cm thinner than normal. That matches the physics of SQRT(FDD) for the impact of the warm winter (7 - 10 C higher than normal), which adds credibility to the PIOMAS model.

It also raises concerns : Once the thick areas at the boundary melted out, the interior of the CAB is weaker than normal, and thus fair game for unavoidable heat input later in the melting season.
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Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2117 on: June 11, 2016, 07:15:56 AM »


Also notable is where the thickest ice is situated :
- The ESS coast, which is melting out very fast right now due to that heat wave (in turn caused by snow-free lands and clear skies over the past few weeks), and

After these anomalies are done (give it a week or two), there is not much more to hold back ice melt deep into the CAB :


A tongue of ice towards ESS has been a feature lasting all the way until minimum every year except 2012 and 2007.  There is no way that anomaly will be wiped out in a week or two.  We have had at best a week or so of strong melt in this area, and forecast conditions going forward while warm are not remarkable for this area for this time of year.  So far it doesn't look like a repeat of the 07 or 12 conditions capable of melting out this ice.  And when water does open up in ESS later in the season I don't think this is purely melting out the ice, but also caused in part by pushing the ice towards the Atlantic as ice deeper in the pack melts and compacts -  Lots of little floes are all melting a little bit around the edges.  The thicker ice towards ESS slows the process down, hence a tongue of ice remaining in this direction later in the season. 
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Pmt111500

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2118 on: June 11, 2016, 07:25:32 AM »
Did that huge low pressure area in Central Arctic come to be realised? Dispersion would likely keep the extent amounts relatively high if it stays there for long and CAPIE would soon be dropping fast.
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

Rob Dekker

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2119 on: June 11, 2016, 07:30:03 AM »
A tongue of ice towards ESS has been a feature lasting all the way until minimum every year except 2012 and 2007.  There is no way that anomaly will be wiped out in a week or two.  We have had at best a week or so of strong melt in this area, and forecast conditions going forward while warm are not remarkable for this area for this time of year.  So far it doesn't look like a repeat of the 07 or 12 conditions capable of melting out this ice.

I hope you are right.
Meanwhile, Dr. Slater's probabilistic model, mostly based on ice concentration development, is projecting 6.05 M km^2 by July 29 :



That means that 2016 would lead 2012 by some 700 k km^2 at the end of July.
Which is not entirely unrealistic, since for an average summer, albedo effects typically amplify over the melting season.
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S.Pansa

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2120 on: June 11, 2016, 07:51:04 AM »
Thanks Rob,

pretty much agree with your assessment. The changes along the Siberian Coast might not appear to be significant (as of yet) but they are imho as can be seen with the Hycom model. I know the  absolute values of this model might be dubious but I think it is able to pick up changes pretty well. 
Furthermore I think that is the main reason why Slater's model is dropping like a stone.
It will need a lot of persistent cyclones and cold weather to prevent this cliff (of course Slater's model might be wrong but it has quite a good track record)


seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2121 on: June 11, 2016, 09:00:41 AM »
From the americanwx thread this is a brief comparison of first week of June weather pattern against June 2013-2015 and June 2007-2012 composite averages

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/156-arctic-sea-ice-extent-area-and-volume/page-538#entry4139001

The comparison is not completely fair still three weeks more of June left out of the picture but seems the pattern will hold until mid June, and in any case the point is to illustrate the post-2012 change.

Laurent

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2122 on: June 11, 2016, 11:04:25 AM »
I am seeing warm winds coming from Bering, Canada, Siberia not good at all for the ice + huge churning of ice on the ESS-Chukchi, Beaufort, Laptev + High export express toward the oblivion zone (Franz Joseph- Svalbard-Fram). Just perfect weather for ice disintegration...
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-80.33,89.50,1257/loc=-179.136,71.167
« Last Edit: June 11, 2016, 12:36:44 PM by Laurent »

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2123 on: June 11, 2016, 12:12:24 PM »


Hello S Pansa,
It's been a while that the link I"ve got for GLB+CICE model does not work. Can I ask you how can we access these images? :)

JayW

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2124 on: June 11, 2016, 12:55:57 PM »
Meanwhile over at the Barrow cam it's 31F and snowing, covering all that melt which has been popping up over the last two days.  Just going to show how susceptible those latitudes are to weather driven events.


East come, easy go. 

Yup, 1.7" was a record for the date.  But then it turned to rain...a you said, day-day weather is fickle.

Quote
RECORD SNOWFALL FOR BARROW ON JUNE 9TH...

BARROW RECEIVED THE MOST SNOWFALL EVER FOR
ANY JUNE 9TH WITH 1.7 INCHES. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD FOR THE DATE WAS 0.5 INCHES IN 1992.
THE JUNE 9TH SNOWFALL ALSO TIED FOR THE 6TH
LARGEST DAILY SNOWFALL FOR ANY JUNE DAY OF
RECORD AND WAS THE SINGLE LARGEST JUNE DAILY
SNOWFALL SINCE 3.2 INCHES FELL ON JUNE 7TH
1981.
http://www.arh.noaa.gov/textforecasts.php?type=statement

And this weekend's forecast.  My bold for emphasis.

Quote
ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...Will be relatively quiet the next
day or so with stratus remaining over the area and MVFR
conditions prevailing over the coastal areas. Will see some break
inland over the plains and the Brooks range will be partly cloudy
for the most part. A chance of thunderstorms over the central
plains and Brooks range late Saturday and possibly Sunday as they
will get some of the warmest if not the warmest temperatures over
that area so far this year with highs in the 60s and 70s.
Winds
generally southwest to west 5 to 15 mph through Sunday morning
then increasing from the southwest in advance of the next cold
front that will move to the northwest coast late Sunday.


Attached is the GFS forecast for Alaska
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=ak&pkg=T2m&runtime=2016061106&fh=30&xpos=0&ypos=0


Edit: added a second attachment. Last 30 days at Barrow.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/temperature/alaska_30temp.shtml
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S.Pansa

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2125 on: June 11, 2016, 01:07:10 PM »


Hello S Pansa,
It's been a while that the link I"ve got for GLB+CICE model does not work. Can I ask you how can we access these images? :)
Hi Seaicesailor,

I've found them here. Hope the link works (might need a security certificate exeption or whatever this thingy is called - no deadly peril at least I am still alive  8)).

Cheers
Sancho

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2126 on: June 11, 2016, 01:32:05 PM »


Hello S Pansa,
It's been a while that the link I"ve got for GLB+CICE model does not work. Can I ask you how can we access these images? :)
Hi Seaicesailor,

I've found them here. Hope the link works (might need a security certificate exeption or whatever this thingy is called - no deadly peril at least I am still alive  8)).

Cheers
Sancho
Bookmarked. Thank you!
This is showing quite an impact of storms (in drift). Kara gone, Laptev starts to clear out, then Beaufort scattering. Will be extremely interesting when/if sunny weather is back.

6roucho

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2127 on: June 11, 2016, 02:50:04 PM »
Quote from: bbr2314

Why are posts based on feelings allowed?

Because intuition plays an important role in scientific debate and the formation of ideas. A substantial amount of the science we refer to here wouldn't exist if someone hadn't had a 'feeling' about something and decided to test it.
OK, well when feelings contradict what we can see via satellite perhaps it is time they take a backseat to logic and actual observations (i.e. facts).
That's your interpretation of the data. Others interpret it differently. None of us can claim to have the maths to back up our interpretations because it doesn't yet exist. We'll be kept busy interpreting these events over the next twenty years. Nevertheless, I lean slightly towards yours. That's how it feels to me.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2128 on: June 11, 2016, 06:15:22 PM »
Weather systems will keep transferring heat to the Arctic periphery during next week no matter what. Another heat wave in Canada and Alaska (even Beaufort open sea will get its decent share of warm air and sun between the stormy days). Hudson and CAA will 'feel' it. NE Siberia warmer than average, Kara and Barentz eventually under a high pressure system. No 2013 yet

epiphyte

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2129 on: June 11, 2016, 06:28:21 PM »
Here's an ink-blot test for everyone's feelings about this years melt vs. 2012! ...


Quantum

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2130 on: June 11, 2016, 06:29:02 PM »
I think its quite interesting to see how the current synoptics compare to previous years.






With the exception of 2012 the cold core is far less strong, although it does seem to be that the cold air in 2016 is more evenly spread over the entire arctic.

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2131 on: June 11, 2016, 07:53:24 PM »
Question:

Assuming that every ice pack fissure edge and polynya boundary produces an additional amount of uncertainty in sea ice extent, area and volume measurements, to what degree has this years unprecedented fracture of the CAB impacted these metrics?

Additional:  does anyone know of a SIE, SIA and SIV (Piomas) graph with error bars???
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plinius

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2132 on: June 11, 2016, 10:02:05 PM »
in short - your typical fissure does not impact extent at all. Finest grids for extent calculations that I know of use 3 km gridding. Since the fissures are inclined on your grid (factor of 1.2 or so in effective grid length for this purpose, 1.4 at 45 deg angle), and since a fissure will not typically be centered in a grid cell your fissure needs to be 5km wide on a 3km grid and 15 km wide on a 10 km grid, before you see anything...

Neven

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2133 on: June 11, 2016, 11:37:38 PM »
I have just published ASI 2016 update 2: closing the gap.

Below an animation of UB SIC maps, showing the advancement of the ice edge towards Svalbard, which I decided not to use:
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Hubert

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2134 on: June 11, 2016, 11:43:05 PM »
Dirty ice. What's on it? Soot?

abbottisgone

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2135 on: June 11, 2016, 11:45:52 PM »
Dirty ice. What's on it? Soot?

Where is that?
..
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2136 on: June 11, 2016, 11:54:43 PM »
Maybe soot;there are huge fires in Siberia and one Still going in Alberta. Not to mention all the small ones.
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2137 on: June 12, 2016, 01:17:29 AM »
Dirty ice. What's on it? Soot?

Where is that?
It's on the Arctic side of the Bering Strait. That is Wrangel Island.

jdallen

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2138 on: June 12, 2016, 01:59:19 AM »
This space for Rent.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2139 on: June 12, 2016, 05:40:37 AM »
JAXA has shown steady drops in the extent for the last few days. Nothing too great. 40k one day, 41k the next, and about 35k today. At least for the time being, I think their numbers are the most reliable.
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2140 on: June 12, 2016, 06:19:20 AM »
If I was a momentum trader doing day trades, my bet would be that the 2016 extent will soon cross the 2012 extent and then remain within the grey area showing the 1981-2010 average.
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Feeltheburn

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2141 on: June 12, 2016, 06:21:26 AM »
Here's an ink-blot test for everyone's feelings about this years melt vs. 2012! ...

Another reason I voted higher than most in the extent poll!
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Andreas T

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2142 on: June 12, 2016, 09:42:30 AM »

I think the number given in espens thread for june 1 was very low: sub 30k.

The preceding few days were circa 50k so I suppose this is almost typical pause-like behaviour which seems to be normal at this exact time as seen by my grossly amatuer involvement thus far!

It is probably nothing to do with the ice. On 1st of June Jaxa changes the tie points of the Bootstrap algorithm from "dry ice" to "wet ice" (some wrongly interpret this as melt pond compensation).
The change takes a few days, so expect some more slow days.

You can observe this on my AMSR2 extent graph.  Until today, Jaxa and UH (black and purple lines) follow each other closely. Between 1 June and 15 October expect Jaxa extent to stay above Uni Hamburg extent.

Edit: To be extra clear, this is an ADS-Jaxa SIC thing, no such effect in data from other sources.

....
I may be stating the obvious but it is worth remembering what these down and up swings mean. The measured parameters of the ice are going below or above a threshold. This is emissivity in microwave frequencies, which is interpreted by the various algorithms as representing water at the surface based on previous measurements. The information I have read shows that this is not as straightforward as would fit a ice / no ice question. There are reasons why data are averaged over days to avoid passing weather effects.
The measurements which represent a percentage of melt ponds at one time could also be caused by a widespread wetting of snow. Structure of the snow, presence of ice layers and saltiness of the ice surface are also factors affecting the measurements and could be different from the original calibrations in a year with unusual winter weather.
My conclusion from this is that trying to extrapolate short term trends is futile. Looking at the basic observations is more sound but can also not predict what happens next (in extent numbers) because the strong influence of weather.
Fundamentally what is happening is that the opening of water caused by movement earlier could not be sustained and melting takes longer when it involves ice which was thickened by the movement (e.g. western Chukchi) or old ice moved to the ice edge (Beaufort)
I expect the early open water especially in Beaufort to have an effect later on (supporting melting) and the early warming of land surfaces in Alaska and Eastern Siberia should have effects which have not shown themselves to the full extent.

Laurent

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2143 on: June 12, 2016, 12:58:29 PM »
The Laptev part has lost integrity, it is now rubbles !

http://www.arctic.io/explorer/8-8/2016-06-12;2015-06-12/6-N76.71181-E126.69198

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2144 on: June 12, 2016, 01:24:16 PM »
If I was a momentum trader doing day trades, my bet would be that the 2016 extent will soon cross the 2012 extent and then remain within the grey area showing the 1981-2010 average.

you are choosing to ignore the market fundamentals

iceman

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2145 on: June 12, 2016, 02:42:23 PM »
   ....
My conclusion from this is that trying to extrapolate short term trends is futile. Looking at the basic observations is more sound but can also not predict what happens next (in extent numbers) because the strong influence of weather.
   ....

This seems pretty well established, and I wonder whether it shows up as increasing variability and lower predictability.  In other words, as the condition of the ice deteriorates in the longer term, are short-term trends more prone to reversal?  And is there a decline in correlations for measures that have demonstrated some predictive power?

Buddy

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2146 on: June 12, 2016, 02:53:34 PM »
Quote
The Laptev part has lost integrity, it is now rubbles !

I think there is more of that THROUGHOUT the Arctic....but to differing degrees.  The ice is in bad shape.....and getting worse.  Moving towards that day when a LOT of it disintegrates in a short time period.

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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2147 on: June 12, 2016, 03:46:19 PM »
If we consider SIE or SIA minimums for a given season as a single data point from a process that takes a year to run, it should not surprise us that 2016 is making a run towards lying within 2 standard deviations of the long term trend. Sure we have outliers like 2007 and 2012 but the trend towards an ice free Arctic continues. If the next major outlier were to carry us to Blue Ocean territory, we should expect a rebound towards the long term trend IMHO.

timallard

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2148 on: June 12, 2016, 04:05:47 PM »
Quote
The Laptev part has lost integrity, it is now rubbles !

I think there is more of that THROUGHOUT the Arctic....but to differing degrees.  The ice is in bad shape.....and getting worse.  Moving towards that day when a LOT of it disintegrates in a short time period.
>> To add to this the ice type is new to the Inuit, new to science they both call it "rotten ice", Applied Physics Lab, Unv WA, part of voyages last spring & fall, fall ice was rotten last year over most of the Beaufort they cruised on. Videos of related topics researched, big team 21 org's:

"Sea State and Boundary Layer Physics of the Emerging Arctic Ocean", showing expedition work and some of the "rotten ice"; evidence of warm water only 20m down this late October; "ARCTIC SEA STATE"; APL-UW; 5:13; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tDmM5zsxd4E?

"Assessing the Habitability and Physical Structure of Rotting First-year Arctic Sea Ice"; "...  to find and categorize “rotten” sea ice"; APL-UW; 6:38;

They  took cores on ice barely strong enough to stand on!!! ... it can disappear anytime from circumstance now late season their take.

Consider this is mainly from basal melting, and a growing addition the clathrate plumes likely cause the large polynyas in the Laptev & Barents Seas, where a new vent is called a megaplume, pretty bad news, hard to fix, eh?

This documented with good slides; May 12, 2015 - FEEM Lecture: "Arctic Amplification, Climate Change, Global Warming"; Dr. Peter Wadhams speaking; 1:43:27;

-tom

Neven

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2149 on: June 12, 2016, 04:42:43 PM »

>> To add to this the ice type is new to the Inuit, new to science they both call it "rotten ice",

That is incorrect. The term has been around for a long time.
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