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dnem

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2200 on: June 14, 2016, 06:04:52 PM »
Interesting post Dundee.  I'd need to study and digest it quite a bit more to really understand it, but you argue that the extent in mid-June is (historically) a poor predictor of minimum extent.  Indeed, your Coefficient of Determination plot even suggests that daily extent changes during the second half of June do not improve the fit of the residuals to the final extent at all!

I was going to post the (mostly unhelpful) observation that the dynamic behavior of complex systems increases as it approaches a state change and I think that is clearly at play this season.  Dundee's post adds some evidence that even over years farther removed from what I think most of us believe is an inevitable state change, SIE in mid-June is a poor predictor of the ultimate minimum. (If I'm interpreting his post correctly!).

Quantum

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2201 on: June 14, 2016, 06:15:40 PM »


Apparently the model used by Hycom consider that the clouds are good for melting...

Hi Laurent!

Oddly I was just re-reading this;

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069330/abstract

Which appears to say 'opaque' is worse for the ice than 'crystal clear'?

Neven, what do you think about this? It goes against the 'established' knowledge that slack LPs are good for the arctic. I mean 1996 was LP dominated and it had arguably the best retentive melt season on record, 2013 did similarly well. I know LP good, HP bad is probably an oversimplification though.

ghoti

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2202 on: June 14, 2016, 06:26:25 PM »
Images from the buoys (of which there is only one operational this year) have always seemed to show larger melt ponds under cloudy skies and more frozen looking areas under bright clear skies. So I've convinced myself the long wave down under overcast conditions plays a big role.

Quantum

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2203 on: June 14, 2016, 06:28:56 PM »
Images from the buoys (of which there is only one operational this year) have always seemed to show larger melt ponds under cloudy skies and more frozen looking areas under bright clear skies. So I've convinced myself the long wave down under overcast conditions plays a big role.
In which case what conditions should we hope for for good ice retention?

Neven

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2204 on: June 14, 2016, 06:55:32 PM »
Neven, what do you think about this? It goes against the 'established' knowledge that slack LPs are good for the arctic. I mean 1996 was LP dominated and it had arguably the best retentive melt season on record, 2013 did similarly well. I know LP good, HP bad is probably an oversimplification though.

Coincidentally, I've been thinking about this yesterday and today a bit. A distinction needs to be made between 'good for ice melt' and 'good for extent decrease'. High pressure leads to clear skies, and as that means solar radiation, it's 'good for ice melt'. Because high pressure also leads to compacting winds, it's double 'good for extent decrease' (melt + compaction).

Low pressure obviously isn't 'good for extent decrease' - at least in the short term - because it disperses the ice pack. The big question at this stage of the melting season - and opinions widely/wildly diverge - is whether it is just as 'good for ice melt' or not 'good for ice melt at all', because no solar radiation.

The idea that it is 'good for ice melt', is that there's more open water between floes that can take up solar radiation as soon as the clouds move away.  I'd have to read the paper that is mentioned, but perhaps the idea of "positive anomalies of water vapor, clouds, and air temperatures that increase the downwelling longwave radiation (LWD) to the surface" could also be a factor. I don't know, I'm going to have to read it.

Although compaction is great for extent decrease, I also sometimes think that it actually makes the remaining ice stronger, by huddling it together. Dispersion is probably more destructive in the long run, but either the ice is still too thick on average, or total melting season duration isn't long enough, and that's why the impact is less visible. Things start to freeze over before damage is total (2010 is a good example of that).

Maybe a combination of the two is required for extent to really decrease a lot. Like Morse code: low (warm temps, melt onset) --- high (melt pond formation, preconditioning) --- low (dispersal, mixing, waves) --- high (more radiation, more absorption) --- low (flash melting, pack breaking into parts) --- high (prolonging the melting season, some compaction and transport).

Either way, what got me thinking about this, I described on the ASIB yesterday:

Quote
It may be nonsense what I'm about to say, but I've noticed that although cyclones are dominating, the pressure isn't particularly low and the ice pack is more visible than I had expected it to be.

Extent has stalled because of a total lack of compaction, but dispersion isn't all that good for the ice pack either, and it is gently being pushed apart, with clear skies in some regions like the Kara Sea, the CAA and even parts of the CAB.

Solar radiation obviously trumps everything at this stage of the melting season, but things aren't looking as cloudy or cold as they were in 2013 and 2014, or perhaps even last year.

If you look at the forecast, SLP barely goes below 1000 hPa, which makes for really weak cyclones. On LANCE-MODIS I can see large parts of the ice pack through the clouds. And third, transport to lower latitudes hasn't really stopped because of the way the pressure zones are positioned.

So, in principle I'll say that the lack of solar radiation during the first half of June is making it much more difficult to go record low, but at the same time things are still so dynamic that I wouldn't write this melting season off completely (way too early for that anyway). This isn't like 2013 or 2014 at all, more like last year, but stronger.

I'd be highly surprised if it doesn't end up among the 5 lowest minimums on record. But there's simply no way of telling right now. We'll know in a couple of weeks, maybe mid-July.
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FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2205 on: June 14, 2016, 06:57:54 PM »
June low pressure over the central Arctic ocean and cold, like 2013 is good for ice retention. The problem we face this year is that the lows aren't like 2013 and they are advecting a lot of heat off of Siberia and Canada. This year will be a good test of Slater's model. If Slater is right these lows will briefly slow the extent loss, then there will be a crash in July. If the theory that lows and increased cloudiness slows sea ice loss is correct then this year will fall behind 2012 going into July and will only go back into the lead if there's perfect weather for melting in July.

The next 6 weeks will be very interesting.

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2206 on: June 14, 2016, 07:24:41 PM »
Every image and chart shows a set up for a massive erosion of the edge over the coming weeks

to what, "edge" do you speak of sir?  I am certain that this mythical "edge" while once a valuable term has now become a lost artefact of physical parameter whence be like lady fools of bygone days to returneth in substance and forme to the ether where all such descriptive terms do firstly originate, and as such, to be gathered in solace and succor by the pondering mind. . .


Worrying times...

. . . indeed

- attached image today EOSDIS, North and West of Prince George Land and Alexandra Land JUNE 14th (day 165) 2016 EOSDIS
« Last Edit: June 16, 2016, 01:07:22 AM by jai mitchell »
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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2207 on: June 14, 2016, 08:32:17 PM »
... We'll know in a couple of weeks, maybe mid-July.
All true, except that "know" word. I'd replace it with "figure", really. Because if some GAC comes late august outta nowhere, for example, you know?

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2208 on: June 14, 2016, 09:21:33 PM »

...

Maybe a combination of the two is required for extent to really decrease a lot. Like Morse code: low (warm temps, melt onset) --- high (melt pond formation, preconditioning) --- low (dispersal, mixing, waves) --- high (more radiation, more absorption) --- low (flash melting, pack breaking into parts) --- high (prolonging the melting season, some compaction and transport).


Amazing post Neven

I have no authority to disagree much. Anyway in my (very short) experience, the lows, even weak, are really a disaster locally wherever they hit over polynya, not so much if the ice pack is closed. I am reading the 2015F and it is as thick, snowy and almost as cold as two weeks ago. This buoy is right where the 2012 edge ended up at the minimum (kind reminder).

http://imb.erdc.dren.mil/2015F.htm

That Morse vision: man... nice tale. It must have happened in many seasons over the past centuries, but now that it is much warmer, when that happens In the end it will just melt suddenly, kind of Wadhams' wet dream (with all respect).

jdallen

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2209 on: June 14, 2016, 09:23:09 PM »
Thank you for the analysis, Dundee.

Empirically, while 2016 has been dropping back to 2012, there's a couple of regions where 2016 is behind 2012 - the Kara and Laptev - which almost for a certainty are going to melt out this season.  I really don't expect 2016 to fall that much behind 2012 by the time we hit July.
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2210 on: June 14, 2016, 09:34:29 PM »
Every image and chart shows a set up for a massive erosion of the edge over the coming weeks

to what, "edge" do you speak of sir?  I am certain that this mythical "edge" while once a valuable term has now become a lost artefact of physical parameter whence be like lady fools of bygone days to returneth in substance and forme to the ether where all such descriptive terms do firstly originate, and as such, to be gathered in solace and succor by the pondering mind. . .


Worrying times...

. . . indeed

- attached image today EOSDIS, Fram Straight and West of Svalbard JUNE 14th (day 165) 2016 EOSDIS
For comparison, similar dates in 2012, 13, 14 and 15.
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2211 on: June 14, 2016, 09:39:20 PM »
DMI shows bottom melt beginning in earnest across all peripheral seas by the end of the week. The rapid warming of the NATL is now affecting the Atlantic edge of the pack as well, which will begin retreating very rapidly over coming days. June cliff is right around the corner!

It should also be noted the EURO is showing a heat ridge persisting in the Kara vicinity through D10. It expands to include the borderlands of the CAB as well. The peripheral seas along the Russian side are going to be hit very hard.
« Last Edit: June 14, 2016, 09:50:56 PM by bbr2314 »

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2212 on: June 14, 2016, 09:54:05 PM »
June cliff? :O I would like to call for "June stall" which sould increase in frequency in the future as the easy ice will poof earlier and the ice in the "real" Arctic will take more time to melt away.

Ideas and thoughts about this? I think it's highly likely as the globe warms and the "easy" ice in the periphery will have a harder time to form!

bbr2314

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2213 on: June 14, 2016, 10:05:23 PM »
June cliff? :O I would like to call for "June stall" which sould increase in frequency in the future as the easy ice will poof earlier and the ice in the "real" Arctic will take more time to melt away.

Ideas and thoughts about this? I think it's highly likely as the globe warms and the "easy" ice in the periphery will have a harder time to form!

I don't know what people are referencing re: easy ice -- in fact, Hudson Bay is holding on better than most of the Arctic, if anyone would bother to pay attention.

If anything 2016 has retained more low-latitude ice compared to what you would expect for such a terrible yr.

Neven

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2214 on: June 14, 2016, 10:12:45 PM »
I don't know what people are referencing re: easy ice -- in fact, Hudson Bay is holding on better than most of the Arctic, if anyone would bother to pay attention.

Who isn't paying attention?
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mati

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2215 on: June 14, 2016, 10:46:58 PM »
it has been unseasonably cold in ontario canada so far, but the heat is on for the next week or so which should accelerate the hudson bay melting.
and so it goes

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2216 on: June 14, 2016, 10:52:32 PM »
it has been unseasonably cold in ontario canada so far, but the heat is on for the next week or so which should accelerate the hudson bay melting.

22°C in Churchill right now; June 14 @ 3:50pm local time. 😮

TerryM

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2217 on: June 14, 2016, 11:16:36 PM »

Could this be an eddy or many eddies created by two ocean currents flowing in opposite sense? (one along the Alaskan coast towards Canada, which can be seen pulling fast ice away; and the other being the Gyre).



Would these eddy currents, spinning cyclonically, create localized Ekman pumps & therefor suck up deep, warm water to attack the ice? Would a number of these, positioned wherever the Beaufort Gyre contacts opposing coastal currents, act to melt both remaining fast ice as well as the peripheral ice traveling with the Gyre? If so the Gyre might be expected to spin increasingly free of whatever braking forces the colliding ice floes normally impart.
Terry

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2218 on: June 15, 2016, 12:13:27 AM »
I think this article presents my view of what is happening this year best.

There are, for me, three key pieces to it.

Heat and moisture is exposed early by the cracking and draw back of the ice
Locally the weather is impacted by the advected heat and moisture
The system becomes chaotic and ice protecting, not settling into any of the normal weather patterns.

If you look at section 3 which is immediate local impact of ice loss, I'm looking for two things.  Heat advection from the opened ocean and moisture injected into the local atmosphere.  Both of which impact immediate local weather systems.

I have issues with the studies because they are going for the big bang.  Summer to Autumn and deep winter though to spring. Where the impact of open water and the heat transport can be most easily seen and measured.

I'm much more interested in what happens in late spring heading into summer where there have been very early releases of significant portions of ice to allow heat and moisture advection.

So when I look at

Quote
Several observational studies have addressed the effects of leads and polynyas on the Arctic atmosphere, but these studies have mostly focused on small- and meso-scale process understanding (e.g., Andreas et al., 1979; Pinto et al., 2003). With a climatological perspective, Serrezze et al. (2009) and Screen and Simmonds (2010a,b) have shown that the recent anomalously large open water areas in September have resulted in a strong transfer of heat from the ocean mixed layer to the atmosphere, causing a large increase in air temperature.

I see heat and moisture being added to the atmosphere. This is section 3, local.


Then I see

Quote
Most of the model experiments focusing on local ABL processes have not explicitly addressed the impact of changes in sea ice cover. Lüpkes et al. (2008a), however, simulated the near-surface air temperatures over the Arctic Ocean for various SICs, geostrophic wind speeds, and flow times over the ocean with a broken ice cover. They found that a 1% decrease in SIC may have up to 3.5◦C warming effect on the 10-m air temperature. This represents the maximum sensitivity, and is only reached in mid-winter under clear-sky conditions when the air mass flows for at least three days over the ocean.
10
The sensitivity decreases for larger reductions in sea cover: in the same conditions, a decrease from 100% to 90% ice concentration would cause a 24◦C warming effect (from -45 to -21◦C) hence less than 10 time the increase caused by the 1 % sea-ice decrease.

So where am I going with this?

My take is this.

In events like 2006 and 2016, the early opening of significant areas of water, plus the significant polynia opening (cracking), in early spring, release significant amounts of heat and moisture.  As we can see from the second quote above, much higher values, for each area of open water, than the larger extent loss later in the season.

Then we see colder weather with more clouds and less sunlight throughout June.

My take is that it takes the rest of June and all of July to sequester enough heat to shift that cloud and create good melting conditions again to allow significant melt.  Hence August should be a time of very strong melt.  But June will be a bust and July will start out slow and build to being fast at the end.

I would love someone to do the same kind of studies which are stated in the article linked above, but for the critical late spring early summer switch over time frame which has such an impact on the melting season.

Some time it absolutely has to reach the point where there is simply too much heat for the advected moisture to block the melt.  Then we're going to see a very quick and brutal end to all year round ice cover.

It may not be for 20 years but that's what I see coming and I believe it will be faster than that.

It was this position that led me to call out, in early May, if you look back, whilst the dramatic melting was going on; that there would be a stall.

My logic may be totally faulty but I'm absolutely sure that I've seen an article somewhere which states that what I've outlined above is exactly what is happening but after around 20years of watching I've found my library of literally hundreds of links are starting to expire in larger and larger numbers.  Especially the articles going back to pre 2000 and between 2000 and 2005.  The internet has changed so much the links are broken.
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JayW

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2219 on: June 15, 2016, 12:26:08 AM »
Amundsen gulf is breaking up further.

Edit: added a second higher resolution still of the end.


VIIRS imagery courtesy of university of Alaska at fairbanks
http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu/search?utf8=✓&search%5Bsensors%5D%5B3%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B16%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B1%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B15%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B17%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B3%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B18%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B10%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B11%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B9%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B8%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B12%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B13%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B14%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B6%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B5%5D=1&search%5Bstart%5D=&search%5Bend%5D=&commit=Search
« Last Edit: June 15, 2016, 12:32:25 AM by JayW »
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2220 on: June 15, 2016, 01:01:17 AM »
These are three sequences, spanning 8 days, where a big floe just makes poof. The waters north of Svalbard seem to stay pretty warm, all that ice is going to melt very quickly.
« Last Edit: June 15, 2016, 01:14:51 AM by seaicesailor »

magnamentis

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2221 on: June 15, 2016, 01:09:08 AM »

thank you very much, one of the better reads and explains in an educated manner what i believe is true and, even though in laymen's terms, tried to state earlier. some of it this very morning. it's good to find independent
insight for people like myself who were for 60+ years only interested in weather and climate to see how the windsurf weather and the barbecue weather will turn out to be :-)

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2222 on: June 15, 2016, 01:18:25 AM »

Could this be an eddy or many eddies created by two ocean currents flowing in opposite sense? (one along the Alaskan coast towards Canada, which can be seen pulling fast ice away; and the other being the Gyre).



Would these eddy currents, spinning cyclonically, create localized Ekman pumps & therefor suck up deep, warm water to attack the ice? Would a number of these, positioned wherever the Beaufort Gyre contacts opposing coastal currents, act to melt both remaining fast ice as well as the peripheral ice traveling with the Gyre? If so the Gyre might be expected to spin increasingly free of whatever braking forces the colliding ice floes normally impart.
Terry

I think that's one of this year's wild cards, in view of the "rubble" pack that is developing.  The wind will move the ice, and the water.  Heat will be brought up from depth.  How much?
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2223 on: June 15, 2016, 01:25:46 AM »

Could this be an eddy or many eddies created by two ocean currents flowing in opposite sense? (one along the Alaskan coast towards Canada, which can be seen pulling fast ice away; and the other being the Gyre).

Would these eddy currents, spinning cyclonically, create localized Ekman pumps & therefor suck up deep, warm water to attack the ice? Would a number of these, positioned wherever the Beaufort Gyre contacts opposing coastal currents, act to melt both remaining fast ice as well as the peripheral ice traveling with the Gyre? If so the Gyre might be expected to spin increasingly free of whatever braking forces the colliding ice floes normally impart.
Terry
They might although I don't have idea how strong the upwelling would be. In any case there should be a lot of mixing in the open water at least, and that necessarily dilutes the fresh water caused by previous melting. Adding insult to injury, which is the trapped insolation heat. Most interesting melting to me :-) From the last Modis images, it seems Beaufort polynya may be expanding within the pack.
 

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2224 on: June 15, 2016, 01:56:42 AM »

They might although I don't have idea how strong the upwelling would be. In any case there should be a lot of mixing in the open water at least, and that necessarily dilutes the fresh water caused by previous melting. Adding insult to injury, which is the trapped insolation heat. Most interesting melting to me :-) From the last Modis images, it seems Beaufort polynya may be expanding within the pack.

As promised, here's the gif of a cyclone starting an eddy.  Actually a few eddies. 

In making these animations I'm noticing quite a few larger pieces breaking up, that might show as extent increases as the Beaufort turns to rubble.


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Adam Ash

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2225 on: June 15, 2016, 04:32:50 AM »
Jai Mitchell 
Ye 'edge' I would allude to, sir, is that which is not the 'middle'.  I dare say no more lest I am further humbled by your wit!

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2226 on: June 15, 2016, 05:35:19 AM »
Amundsen Gulf goes poof overnight. Area affected below: 20,700 km2 or some 8000 square miles.
« Last Edit: June 15, 2016, 05:52:18 AM by A-Team »

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2227 on: June 15, 2016, 05:41:36 AM »
If it still matters about pure and simple extent anymore, with everything being so crazy now, SIE took a pretty good drop today of 76k+. I don't think it will be too long before it all becomes more straight foward again.

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2228 on: June 15, 2016, 06:12:20 AM »
If it still matters about pure and simple extent anymore, with everything being so crazy now, SIE took a pretty good drop today of 76k+. I don't think it will be too long before it all becomes more straight foward again.

Who's SIE dropped that much? IJIS was ~55k.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2229 on: June 15, 2016, 06:27:42 AM »
JAXA reported it about an hour ago. P.S. it got up to 85 deg F near the Mckenzie River Delta yesterday(13th where I am,as its still the 14th here now) and one spot in Siberia reached 98 F, according to the Arctic-News.blogspot.com                                                                                                                                  Sorry,I think my data has jet lag. Maybe I will try a new courier for SIE data.             
« Last Edit: June 15, 2016, 03:39:30 PM by Tigertown »

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2230 on: June 15, 2016, 07:45:47 AM »
These are three sequences, spanning 8 days, where a big floe just makes poof. The waters north of Svalbard seem to stay pretty warm, all that ice is going to melt very quickly.

I was looking at that same big floe, it seems that that 1000km stretch of ocean bordering the Atlantic has reached the point where it will melt out as fast as ice is moved. The ice was (is?) moving at around 20km a day, it would suggest a 20000 square km loss of area per day, simply from the ice being pushed into warmer waters on this boundary, but with no loss of extent.

swoozle

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2231 on: June 15, 2016, 07:47:10 AM »
JAXA reported it about an hour ago. ....

Woops, even my number was too high.
JAXA/IJIS dropped 45k (today's report), not 76k

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2232 on: June 15, 2016, 08:20:08 AM »
These are three sequences, spanning 8 days, where a big floe just makes poof. The waters north of Svalbard seem to stay pretty warm, all that ice is going to melt very quickly.

I was looking at that same big floe, it seems that that 1000km stretch of ocean bordering the Atlantic has reached the point where it will melt out as fast as ice is moved. The ice was (is?) moving at around 20km a day, it would suggest a 20000 square km loss of area per day, simply from the ice being pushed into warmer waters on this boundary, but with no loss of extent.
And for how long will this continue? Presumably for as long as there's sufficient drift.

sofouuk

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2233 on: June 15, 2016, 11:31:38 AM »
"Would these eddy currents, spinning cyclonically, create localized Ekman pumps & therefor suck up deep, warm water to attack the ice?"

only if 1) the water is deep enough that it would be significantly warmer at depth (yes in most of the beaufort, which gets deep very quickly?) 2) the spiral persists for long enough to bring a non-negligible amount of warmer water to the surface - if we're talking about local 'eddies' this seems unlikely?

Laurent

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2234 on: June 15, 2016, 11:42:37 AM »
A snap shot of 82°N 150W

Laurent

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2235 on: June 15, 2016, 11:56:00 AM »
Finally an animation of the last 15 days. It helps seeing through the clouds.

Laurent

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2236 on: June 15, 2016, 12:09:21 PM »
Same place in 2015.

Rob Dekker

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2237 on: June 15, 2016, 12:09:51 PM »
Maybe a combination of the two is required for extent to really decrease a lot. Like Morse code: low (warm temps, melt onset) --- high (melt pond formation, preconditioning) --- low (dispersal, mixing, waves) --- high (more radiation, more absorption) --- low (flash melting, pack breaking into parts) --- high (prolonging the melting season, some compaction and transport).

Neven, you should keep this statement. It is brilliant.

It nails it. Best way to melt ice in water :
Warm it - stir it - warm it - stir it.

As far as 2016 is concerned, we are definitely in the "warm it" phase right now.
This is our planet. This is our time.
Let's not waste either.

Laurent

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2238 on: June 15, 2016, 12:16:15 PM »
Same place 2012. I stop here. (18 juin with less cloud)

iceman

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2239 on: June 15, 2016, 01:14:14 PM »
   ....
The graphs we see are a result of a model, whose design (including significant compromises) has been tuned and validated over time to the extent possible against what is known about ice conditions.
   ....
Interesting post Dundee.  I'd need to study and digest it quite a bit more to really understand it, but you argue that the extent in mid-June is (historically) a poor predictor of minimum extent.  Indeed, your Coefficient of Determination plot even suggests that daily extent changes during the second half of June do not improve the fit of the residuals to the final extent at all!
   ....

This is a valuable exercise and appears to put a sizable dent in the "early melting momentum" hypothesis.  I have a bias toward that intuitively appealing idea (even if 2016 proves to be a counterexample), so my reaction is to wonder whether ice extent is a poorer predictor than other indicators. Neven's post upthread offers some supporting reasoning based on dispersion.  For further insight: is the late-June dip or flattening in the coefficient associated with intervals when extent loss slows more than area loss?

oren

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2240 on: June 15, 2016, 01:21:37 PM »
These are three sequences, spanning 8 days, where a big floe just makes poof. The waters north of Svalbard seem to stay pretty warm, all that ice is going to melt very quickly.

Amazing, thanks for the animation. The current dispersal phase might prove disastrous for the ice because of this killing zone.

Amundsen Gulf goes poof overnight. Area affected below: 20,700 km2 or some 8000 square miles.

Wow.

6roucho

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2241 on: June 15, 2016, 01:34:02 PM »
Maybe a combination of the two is required for extent to really decrease a lot. Like Morse code: low (warm temps, melt onset) --- high (melt pond formation, preconditioning) --- low (dispersal, mixing, waves) --- high (more radiation, more absorption) --- low (flash melting, pack breaking into parts) --- high (prolonging the melting season, some compaction and transport).

Neven, you should keep this statement. It is brilliant.

It nails it. Best way to melt ice in water :
Warm it - stir it - warm it - stir it.

As far as 2016 is concerned, we are definitely in the "warm it" phase right now.
Although low-low-low high-high-high low-low-low might be more apt.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2242 on: June 15, 2016, 04:56:56 PM »
As it more and more looks like June 2016 will pan out as the absolutely lousiest June month during the 2000's, what does the early July weather look like?

An early forecast which should be taken with a grain of salt from CFS v2 shows that cyclonic weather most likely will remain in charge through the rest of June, virtually for sure guaranteeing that we won't eclipse June 2004 which had a loss of 1,25 Mn km2.

The areas that should take the biggest loss until June 30 are Hudson Bay, Baffin and Kara Sea. Also, Barentz Sea will see some losses too as warm air will pump up there.

By early July, the forecast for week 3 continues with a cyclonic pattern in the CAB.

The most interesting now is the outlook for week 4 which initiates a quite nasty dipole.

To summarize everything:

Cyclonic weather pattern should quite likely continue for another 2-3 weeks and almost certainly guarantee a bottom place among the lousiest June months. About 1 week into July, a dipole might show up which eventually would put some late melting momentum i it would last for a while. While the ice is in a bad shape, I think we can write of any new record. And right now I don't see any possible chance that 2016 will beat out 2012, 2007 or 2011. In fact, we might end up about where 2013 finished, maybe even 2009


Best,LMV

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2243 on: June 15, 2016, 05:00:14 PM »
Extent and area are both about to start crashing.

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2244 on: June 15, 2016, 05:06:21 PM »
... And right now I don't see any possible chance that 2016 will beat out 2012, 2007 or 2011. In fact, we might end up about where 2013 finished, maybe even 2009[/b]

Best,LMV
"In fact, we might". Hillarious turn of phraze - if it's a fact, then it can't be something which "might" be; if it's something which "might" be, then it's not a fact. :P

Jokes aside, i disagree. We won't end up 2013, least 2009. Promise.

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2245 on: June 15, 2016, 05:14:07 PM »
I just cannot believe that folk can be viewing the same thing, with the same level of experience to myself,  yet see such a different view of what is happening out there? I feel like it's 2008 or 2009 again with all the clamour of a recovery and me the only voice saying degradation and collapse?

The pack is not sat still nor is it sat in -2.0 temps ( on the whole). Crackopalypse since 2013 has seen floes shattered and fused back together with new grown ice. The collapse of floes is along these weak points so the pack is falling into ever smaller floes. It may not register on extent area as melt out would do but it is setting the pack up for rapid losses given the slightest forcing?

Talk of a di-pole means drift and smaller floes drift faster and melt out faster.

 The Fat Lady hasn't even sprayed her throat and started warm up yet!!!!
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Neven

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2246 on: June 15, 2016, 05:39:47 PM »
Although low-low-low high-high-high low-low-low might be more apt.

I thought about that one when the metaphor popped up.  ;D

And right now I don't see any possible chance that 2016 will beat out 2012, 2007 or 2011. In fact, we might end up about where 2013 finished, maybe even 2009[/b]

You're taking the same route as the folks who have been saying this year definitely will break all the records, but in the other direction. I think it's still too early to exaggerate.  ;)
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A-Team

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2247 on: June 15, 2016, 06:03:46 PM »
JimH and AndreasT noted in #1670 a preliminary report of Beaufort Gyre ice thickness along the track of an airplane with a tethered AEM thickness sensor on 10 Apr 2016.

This is a confusing situation because the authors displayed their data in plate carrée projection, warping the WorldView image out of its EPSG 3413 projection to fit. It turns out, first two-frame animation below that the overflight went over a couple of floes we have been tracking since mid-February, notably 'Big Block'.

Note they totally screwed up palette preparation (expanded inset) so none of the airplane thickness colors correspond to anything in the color key !?#*! A link to the numeric data could be interesting because this floe has a flat surface without ridging and so the thickness profile provides a keel profile and so a window on wind drag.

https://www.arcus.org/files/page/documents/25543/sio_2016_haas_preseason_contribution.pdf

The Beaufort Gyre animation for 01-14 June shows 'Big Block' almost stationary, without any suggestion of export to the Chukchi. Other areas in the Gyre seem to be dispersing into the area of coastal open water, with some indication of CW rotation.

The winds, at least on GFS-based nullschool, have called consistently for CCW rotation if anything. The observed movement of floe\s cannot be explained by inertia (as any CW momentum would be rapidly damped out) nor by background ocean currents (which are small). There seems to be no observational wind data whatsoever in this region.
« Last Edit: June 15, 2016, 06:41:20 PM by A-Team »

AbruptSLR

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2248 on: June 15, 2016, 06:04:31 PM »
Scribbler addresses the condition of the ASIE in the following article entitled: "Ten Mile Wide Chunks of Arctic Sea Ice are Disintegrating North of Svalbard":

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/06/14/ten-mile-wide-chunks-of-arctic-sea-ice-are-disintegrating-north-of-svalbard/

Extract: "Over the past 10 days, the rate of sea ice extent loss in the Arctic has slowed down somewhat. And as a result sea ice extent measures, though maintaining in record low ranges, are much closer now to the 2012 line. Low pressure systems have come to dominate the Arctic Ocean zone. And the outwardly expanding counter-clockwise winds from these systems have tended to cause the ice to spread out and to thin. In the past, such events were seen as an ice preserving feature. But this year, there’s cause for a little doubt.



Looking north, there’s risk that human caused climate change will drive that ice hostility zone into the near polar region itself. During the melt phase, broken ice can generate a bit of negative feedback by promoting cloud formation through increased water evaporation and reduced albedo as surface melt ponds are essentially dumped back into the ocean. But such floes are at the mercy of transport and waves. And they sit upon a warming surface ocean. A discontinuous floe can hit a melt tipping point pretty rapidly — covering a large region and then disappearing in a very short period. We’ve seen instances of such events during late June for Baffin Bay, Hudson Bay, and the Kara Sea.

Now, much of the Arctic Ocean is covered by these floes. And with so much heat in the system, it’s worth considering that the old rules no longer fully apply. It’s worth realize that the ice is dancing in an increasingly tenuous temperature zone between the warming waters below and the warming airs above."
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A-Team

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2249 on: June 15, 2016, 06:31:41 PM »
Quote
just cannot believe that folk can be viewing the same thing ...  taking the same route as the folks  saying this year definitely will break all the records, but other direction. it's still too early
This forum seems to have gone off on a panglossian disconnect with current satellite imagery, anyone's inability to predict weather even five days out, diminishing relevance of ice from past years, unfavorable changes in ice quality, seemingly unprecedented ingression of warm ocean water, and especially the latest ice products posted on the AMSR2 home brew forum.

What gives, anxiety about melt-out?

Nothing we post here has the slightest effect on end-season outcome. If someone could predict that, there would be no need to even have this forum. I don't see any motivation yet for the Nobel Prize Committee to be on stand-by. If predictions are sprayed out over the entire outcome space, someone will be 'right' just as there will be a winner when betting on every number on the roulette wheel. It's all about science rationale, not hunches or gut feelings.

I also wonder if we give way too much emphasis to records, as if climate change were soccer goal counts. The fact is, there is too much open water too long already. The diminishing albedo, of tundra and sea ice, is already affecting the planetary heat budget.

When people want to move the goal post to 'five consecutive years of ice-free ocean' or demand a 'state change', all I can think of panic disorder (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benzodiazepine).
« Last Edit: June 15, 2016, 06:59:10 PM by A-Team »