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NeilT

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2250 on: June 15, 2016, 06:41:43 PM »
I'd go totally along with that.

If the science rationale were not changing, slightly, with each study that learns something else; that was not in the current lexicon of how our planet's cooling systems cope with excess heat...

I'm not saying that the science is wrong.  What I'm saying is that the scientific projections, in the short term, tend to be wrong because there are so many factors we can't monitor, that our understanding has to be upgraded every time there is a shock event which doesn't fit the current state of the scientific understanding.

The longer term models, on the other hand, are right on the money.

So here we're talking about potential near term future events based on the science of short term interaction that gets updated every time the short term throws us a curve ball.

In the end, outside of the decadal and century models; we're all guessing to some degree or other.

My guess is close to 2011 with strong melting in August.  Yep, it's a guess.... But it is based on _some_ science.  Or at least my interpretation of it.

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icy voyeur

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2251 on: June 15, 2016, 07:05:51 PM »
Interesting discussions about whether a mix of dispersion is ideal for melting.
As a bear of very little brain, it seems to me that the most important thing is added heat. Either it warms ocean water or it warms/melts ice. Then the warm water melts ice. The speed at which our metrics observe this vary some, heating water first quite obviously defers melting, but over multiple weeks, the bottom melt will catch up. You need to manufacture odd currents to avoid it. Yoyeur's like me may be impatient but the ice will respond to heating. If the kinetics of melting temporarily shifts to raise the T of water, the kinetics of melting will subsequently increase. So ideal conditions for melting are just conditions that add more heat. Dispersion or stirring are are about short term kinetics not the fate of the ice.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2252 on: June 15, 2016, 07:11:55 PM »
Well, I have a gut feeling Gray-Wolf is right. The ice is too busted up and being dispersed. There is too much heat in the system, with more coming. It will not take but just a little help from direct sunlight for just a few days. Might not break the record, but it will be interesting to see how close it gets.
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2253 on: June 15, 2016, 07:24:08 PM »
Does anybody have any idea how to get a measure of all the river water reaching the Arctic? I read somewhere that a total of 72 rivers dump into it overall. Some of these are coming from areas of land that have lost the albedo of snow cover a little sooner this year. We have seen the effects near some of the main deltas. However, it would be interesting to get the bigger picture of this year compared to past years; or is a negligent amount?
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

Neven

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2254 on: June 15, 2016, 07:38:12 PM »
Does anybody have any idea how to get a measure of all the river water reaching the Arctic? I read somewhere that a total of 72 rivers dump into it overall. Some of these are coming from areas of land that have lost the albedo of snow cover a little sooner this year. We have seen the effects near some of the main deltas. However, it would be interesting to get the bigger picture of this year compared to past years; or is a negligent amount?

I don't know about real-time data, but here's what I've written about it on the ASIB:

A warm river runs through it

Warm rivers and Arctic sea ice loss

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Phil.

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2255 on: June 15, 2016, 08:13:34 PM »
The Beaufort Gyre animation for 01-14 June shows 'Big Block' almost stationary, without any suggestion of export to the Chukchi. Other areas in the Gyre seem to be dispersing into the area of coastal open water, with some indication of CW rotation.

The winds, at least on GFS-based nullschool, have called consistently for CCW rotation if anything. The observed movement of floe\s cannot be explained by inertia (as any CW momentum would be rapidly damped out) nor by background ocean currents (which are small). There seems to be no observational wind data whatsoever in this region.

Looking at the Barrow website shows the near-shore ice covered with melt ponds (T ~ 38ºF)
09_47_48_88_ABCam_20160615_174500.jpg
Radar shows beyond the in-shore fast ice (~1km) mobile fragmented ice out to 10km or more flowing from west to east (it arrived about 10 days ago).

NeilT

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2256 on: June 15, 2016, 08:25:24 PM »
If you go back and look a the 10 day animation the near shore ice was pretty badly melted and in a really sorry state. Then the offshore ice pushed in with the wind and compacted it all up against the shore.

What you see close to shore is the remains of what was most of the landfast ice.

It's been very interesting watching the ice spread back to the shore and keep the pacific closed off.  The weather in Barrow has had very high spots but the general weather was only slightly conducive to the melting we've become used to.

I tend to watch Barrow almost every day at this time of year.  It's been a lot worse.
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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2257 on: June 15, 2016, 08:46:43 PM »
...
Nothing we post here has the slightest effect on end-season outcome. If someone could predict that, there would be no need to even have this forum. ...
There are few examples of disputable logic in yours post, but i'll address only this one here, as an example.

First, you can never actually know whether something posted here would have an actual effect on end-season outcome. To realize why this is so, it's enough to read this and then ask yourself: could something similar, larger-scale but also way less-published, happen as a result of just one particular "rich" person silently reading what's posted here? The obvious - to me, - answer is "yes, it could, even if probability is very, very small".

Second and main, i haven't seen nobody conclusively proving that God does not, actually, exist. As far as i know, whole number of leading physicists are seriously considering the possibility, pointing to whole row of circumstances of physical reality as arguments. Thus, even if we'd learn tomorrow that God exists and is able to predict the outcome of melting season ("almighty" and all, you know), - would there be no more need in this forum? Certainly not. If God exists, he is well known as someone who's not in hurry to share what he knows with all the people. Now, extend this concept to most powerful entities of mankind - leading corporations, most developed states, - who also are not exactly eager to share _everything_ they know and can predict with general public, and then you'll see that my here point is as true for religious people as it is true for agnostics and atheists.

Please, re-consider the rest of your post, A-team. It is unusually... biased or something, it's not quite like it's you writing...

Best wishes!
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Phil.

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2258 on: June 15, 2016, 09:47:46 PM »
If you go back and look a the 10 day animation the near shore ice was pretty badly melted and in a really sorry state. Then the offshore ice pushed in with the wind and compacted it all up against the shore.

What you see close to shore is the remains of what was most of the landfast ice.

It's been very interesting watching the ice spread back to the shore and keep the pacific closed off.  The weather in Barrow has had very high spots but the general weather was only slightly conducive to the melting we've become used to.

I tend to watch Barrow almost every day at this time of year.  It's been a lot worse.

Likewise, about 10 days ago there was only about 1km of fast ice left and to the west it was breaking up.  Then all the loose offshore ice blew in.
Usually the breakout there is in early July.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2259 on: June 15, 2016, 09:59:49 PM »
As the pressure over Greenland is predicted to diminish, the weather map resembles more that of the second half of 2013. I may well be very wrong or missing something.

Below June 17 2013 as example, but with more rigour the composite average of 19-24 June 2013 can be consulted in the ASIG
https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/slp-patterns

Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2260 on: June 15, 2016, 10:27:56 PM »
I appreciate A-Team acknowledging our . . .
Quote
. . . inability to {accurately} predict weather even five days out, diminishing relevance of ice from past years, unfavorable changes in ice quality, seemingly unprecedented ingression of warm ocean water, and especially the latest ice products posted on the AMSR2 home brew forum.

This brings to mind what Neven and others have indicated -> way too much uncertainty in a highly complex system for any of us to get on our high-horse about forecasts.  We're learning together here and that is one of the things that's cool 8) about the emergent field of sea ice forecasting.

As difficult as it is to model or predict long-range weather, it's even more challenging with the ice.  Compounding this are the uncertainties around how the ice/snow affects arctic region weather.  Significant model forecasting inaccuracies arise from not coupling with or correctly factoring in the many interdependent metrics associated with the ice (area, extent and on and on.)  Heck we can't even measure this stuff accurately enough yet.

I think we all need to remember that all of this is very cutting-edge with essential active research going on.  In fact there should be a lot more going on - especially given what little we know and how tremendously important the outcomes are.






« Last Edit: June 15, 2016, 10:43:42 PM by Ice Shieldz »

P-maker

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2261 on: June 15, 2016, 10:48:34 PM »
F Tnioli:

Quote
could something similar, larger-scale but also way less-published, happen as a result of just one particular "rich" person silently reading what's posted here?

Yes. If some already incredible rich skipper decided do catch all the mackerel off East Greenland this summer (see   http://www.alphagalileo.org/ViewItem.aspx?ItemId=165174&CultureCode=en ), the resulting algae bloom would help to suck up sunshine and add heat to the sea surface water. The result would be vastly more melt of ice exiting the Fram Strait, hence this would bring us closer to the first year with less than a million bucks (sq kms) in the bank.

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2262 on: June 16, 2016, 01:28:38 AM »
Looking at Andrew Slaters temperatures for June so far we look to be quite close to average so far.  Not too different from last year, noticeably warmer than 13 and 14, and definitely behind other top years such as 11,12 and 07.
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Nick_Naylor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2263 on: June 16, 2016, 01:41:47 AM »
Looking at Andrew Slaters temperatures for June so far we look to be quite close to average so far.  Not too different from last year, noticeably warmer than 13 and 14, and definitely behind other top years such as 11,12 and 07.

Another view of temps, looking much warmer than 2013 or 2014.
[edit, fixed image]

echoughton

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2264 on: June 16, 2016, 03:48:21 AM »
Thanks for the add. Great to be here!

6roucho

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2265 on: June 16, 2016, 06:41:10 AM »
Second and main, i haven't seen nobody conclusively proving that God does not, actually, exist. As far as i know, whole number of leading physicists are seriously considering the possibility, pointing to whole row of circumstances of physical reality as arguments.
Another variable absent from the models.

jdallen

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2266 on: June 16, 2016, 08:17:52 AM »
Looking at Andrew Slaters temperatures for June so far we look to be quite close to average so far.  Not too different from last year, noticeably warmer than 13 and 14, and definitely behind other top years such as 11,12 and 07.
I wouldn't be too excited about that.  Cooler temperature could be the result of more exchange with the ocean via exposed water.  Evaporating H2O off of -2C water would provide serious cooling, and keep the temperature down, but not be good news.
This space for Rent.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2267 on: June 16, 2016, 08:35:21 AM »
Looking through the clouds in Modis, seems to me that ESS has no been affected except for getting refrozen and some cracks.
Beaufort sea shows more open water between the huge floes, yet they look as frigid as 15 days ago (7-2-1 channel). Laptev however is becoming rubble and shows a lot of surface melting. I think this extent of dispersed ice could qualify as open water, but still above the threshold. Soon its extent will drop precipitously.
All in all and considering the coming weather, LMV 'June stall'  of post-2012 years this year too seems a fact, we want to see it or not.

Peter Ellis

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2268 on: June 16, 2016, 08:38:26 AM »
...
Nothing we post here has the slightest effect on end-season outcome. If someone could predict that, there would be no need to even have this forum. ...
There are few examples of disputable logic in yours post, but i'll address only this one here, as an example.
Cool story, bro.

Rob Dekker

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2269 on: June 16, 2016, 09:28:26 AM »
Interesting post Dundee.  I'd need to study and digest it quite a bit more to really understand it, but you argue that the extent in mid-June is (historically) a poor predictor of minimum extent.  Indeed, your Coefficient of Determination plot even suggests that daily extent changes during the second half of June do not improve the fit of the residuals to the final extent at all!

Indeed, "extent" in June is a poor predictor of extent in September.
In fact, Bill Fothergill noted that 3 years ago in this post :
http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/06/problematic-predictions.html

where he noted :
Quote
Summing up, attempts to predict the September extent based solely on the level of ice in April or May is basically a fool’s errand. Although there is a reasonable chance of being close based upon June figures (much more so for area, rather than extent) one really needs to wait until July before betting the family silver.

As noted, "area" is a somewhat better predictor.
But prediction gets a lot better if you include some albedo factors that affect how much heat is absorbed in the Northern Hemisphere and physical parameters to how much these factors affect ice melt :
http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/07/problematic-predictions-2.html

Using that method, we can actually make a pretty good estimate of September extent, based on June numbers of "area" and "extent" and "land snow cover". Here is how that June prediction works out :



This work is based on monthly data.
Dundee's work (and also Tealight's work here) :
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1543.0.html
is very interesting, since it is based on "daily" values, possibly being ahead of the curve by two weeks.

I'm looking forward on how that work develops, but I'd like to point out that we can certainly make pretty decent predictions for the September minimum based on June data.
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2270 on: June 16, 2016, 10:03:19 AM »
This thing of a 'changing' melt season regime. We can't forget we are looking at ice here and noting an upward trend in temps over the years. so what when the summer lows begin to predominantly bring rain? How much warmer do temps need to be ,or  how much more frequent do 'warm lows' have to become, before we view L.P.'s as a dangerous event for the ice?

Even up until the start of GAC2012 some folk were posting ( on other forums I hasten to add!) how it spelled the end of that melt season. Are we approaching the time when comparing every low to the 2013 melt season will need to end lest we see the rest of that melt season tracking along the same set of metrics that brought 2013?
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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2271 on: June 16, 2016, 11:24:58 AM »
May be things are changing so much already that even taking a close look gets to be "not recommended" for public?

This here NOAA page says north pole webcams were not installed this year, because of funding problems. They say next year it's planned, though.

I wonder, how much does it cost to drop couple webcams there. Is it comparable to extra NOAA funding for FY 2016 of extra 380 millions USD for their new weather satellite, planned to go live some time 2023? And it's not the only significant increase if NOAA budget. Somehow, i doubt it's because they had no funding. Couple web-cams are not a million-dollar affair. They didn't do it because they didn't want to do it. Or, perhaps, they dropped webcams alright, but are just saying they didn't?

Are there any webcams live these days north from 85 latitude? I can't find any. May be i get old and rusty, though?
« Last Edit: June 16, 2016, 11:32:57 AM by F.Tnioli »
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2272 on: June 16, 2016, 11:42:46 AM »

Indeed, "extent" in June is a poor predictor of extent in September.


This thing of a 'changing' melt season regime. We can't forget we are looking at ice here and noting an upward trend in temps over the years. so what when the summer lows begin to predominantly bring rain? How much warmer do temps need to be ,or  how much more frequent do 'warm lows' have to become, before we view L.P.'s as a dangerous event for the ice?


20-25 days of cloudy weather in Central Arctic and in June will have a positive effect on ice in September. But the shear warmth of the Northern Hemisphere cannot be denied.
Why people assume that a final extent below 2007 is not a catastrophe? It goes with the negative trend of post-2013 and even post-2005 leaving 2012 as an exception that eventually won't be exceptional.

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2273 on: June 16, 2016, 01:07:02 PM »
...
20-25 days of cloudy weather in Central Arctic and in June will have a positive effect on ice in September. But the shear warmth of the Northern Hemisphere cannot be denied.
Why people assume that a final extent below 2007 is not a catastrophe? It goes with the negative trend of post-2013 and even post-2005 leaving 2012 as an exception that eventually won't be exceptional.
Agree.

And, good question, that one about people. More than one answer to it, i think.

Some people assume that out of ignorance. "We lived through 2012 and world did not end, so we stay above 2012, everything's fine" sort of thinking. Myopic view, i call it. Unable to see further than their nose, so to say.

Yet others have an agenda. The agenda of calming down public opinion. This can't be denied in terms of mass media - too obvious. I guess some of that "policy" could well soak into this here forum, as well. After all, media and "involved with mass media policies" people do have free time and their own interests. And some of them honestly believe it's one noble thing to keep general population content, comforted and hopeful. May be it is, i'm not saying it's not. Not sure. Heck, even Lem wasn't.

Yet some others are well-known bunch - techno-fix people. Those who hope big-time for CCS (carbon capture and storage) on global scale, feasibility of long-term (centuries) geo-engineering if need be, intense genetic modification of crops and livestock, etc. Many of those folk - i bet, - see the Arctic sea ice disappearance as "minor thing", which "we'll fix if need be, and/or adapt to". Pink glasses and all.

And i'd be very surprised if the above would be the complete list. I bet there are other kinds of people who don't see below 2007 as a catastrophe; heck, even ice-free, they don't see as something critical.

Bottom line is, with present day mass media, massively "corporated" education programs in most univercities around the globe, modern politics and urban culture (which is much isolated from natural world in most regards), and economics which doesn't care for anything further than few years ahead at best, - you can't expect people to be free of... misconceptions. Those are many and various and widespread, often even among the brightest. This here forum is much better than most places in this regard, but it's still far from being perfectly clean and unbiased, purely rational, scientific discussion.

P.S. That said, i still love reading it. Lots of great people here. Great thanks to all of you, guys, you know who you are. ^^
« Last Edit: June 16, 2016, 01:16:37 PM by F.Tnioli »
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2274 on: June 16, 2016, 05:35:34 PM »
I know that is the thread we are on here, to discuss what will be the final outcome of this season number-wise. However, we are in a bad situation either way. Many experts believe that even if you stopped all carbon emissions now, immediately,the feedback loops already in action are self sustaining. And the impact of recently released ghgs have not even fully kicked in yet and gimmicks that prevent a ton or so of co2 is not the answer. Don't get me wrong, I enjoy hearing everybody make educated guesses about the outcome of this years melt season, but we got to remember it is only part of the picture.
« Last Edit: June 16, 2016, 07:14:41 PM by Tigertown »
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werther

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2275 on: June 16, 2016, 06:26:08 PM »
NOAA page says north pole webcams were not installed this year, because of funding problems.

Uhh... well considering the MODIS detail I posted two days ago, they might have a real funding problem too. Ice around there seems pretty unsecure...

A-Team

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2276 on: June 16, 2016, 06:40:03 PM »
Below are some comparisons of the Beaufort Gyre over the last five years, all that is possible using WorldView (and even there 2012 needs a projection change). The Beaufort Gyre was ice-free for the first time in Sept 2012, with a paywalled Jan 2016 paper on the thermodynamics of that (full text summary deferred to a subsequent post).

Quote
Physical processes contributing to an ice free Beaufort Sea during September 2012
D. Babb et all DOI: 10.1002/2015JC010756

During the record September 2012 sea ice minimum, the Beaufort Sea became ice free for the first time during the observational record. Increased dynamic activity during late winter enabled increased open water and seasonal ice coverage that contributed to negative sea ice anomalies and positive solar absorption anomalies which drove rapid bottom melt and sea ice loss.

As had happened in the Beaufort Sea during previous years of exceptionally low September sea ice extent, anomalous solar absorption developed during May, increased during June, peaked during July, and persisted into October.

However in situ observations from a single floe reveal less than 78% of the energy required for bottom melt during 2012 was available from solar absorption. We show that the 2012 sea ice minimum in the Beaufort was the result of anomalously large solar absorption that was compounded by an arctic cyclone and other sources of heat such as solar transmission, oceanic upwelling, and riverine inputs, but was ultimately made possible through years of preconditioning toward a younger, thinner ice pack.

Significant negative trends in sea ice concentration between 1979 and 2012 from June to October, coupled with a tendency toward earlier sea ice reductions have fostered a significant trend of +12.9 MJ m−2 yr−1 in cumulative solar absorption, sufficient to melt an additional 4.3 cm m−2 yr−1.

Overall through preconditioning toward a younger, thinner ice pack the Beaufort Sea has become increasingly susceptible to increased sea ice loss that may render it ice free more frequently in coming years.

The first image is from D Babb's twitter site; there may be a daily update somewhere online. This year is similar to 2012 in its current state of anomalously low sea ice concentration. The five-year comparison of June 12th needs a click to show full size. Note in the third image that 2016 is qualitatively quite different than the same mid-June date in terms of distinct floes and their distribution.

The bottom animation shows what happened during the next month back in 2012. It got quite cloudy after that and the region cannot be followed effectively with visual imagery. The 2012 imagery is rotated 38º CCW and adjusted to Banks Island to bring it approximately into the current WorldView projection.
« Last Edit: June 16, 2016, 07:02:47 PM by A-Team »

Dundee

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2277 on: June 16, 2016, 08:18:56 PM »
It is not apparent from Charctic, but the bump we just saw in SIE was more than remarkable. Again, not clear from Charctic, but the June Cliff in 2012 spent much of its energy burning off a significantly higher than expected SIE that lingered through the early spring - in June 2012 SIE it was only very briefly beyond 2 RMS values less than expected.

Below is a chart with the daily residuals (vs a daily linear regression model) as well as the residuals in terms of the RMS value for that day of the year (standard deviation, for normally distributed data). This year peaked at four times the RMS value below trend - compared to three RMS for both the 2007 and 2012 minimums. The weeks just passed have the most statistically significant difference from expectation of any period in the last 38 years.

The SIE minimums period in September has large uncertainties and are not statistically well behaved - we are used to seeing years well below the envelope. SIE in mid May - early June, on the other hand, has historically been very well behaved. When a sustained springtime gap has developed in past seasons, it has always been reigned in by mid May. This year the gap has been reduced (and is now not remarkable compared to 2007 and 2012) but remains well below the expected trend. I previously posted a chart of coefficients of determination that indicated near zero predictive value of low ice extent early in the year (up to the "reigning in" that has always happened in May). Something strikingly different is going on this year, and the recent period of reduced melt rate has not made it go entirely away.

I can only predict it will continue to be an interesting season, and that sober, rational projections of the minimum this year (4.49 Million km2) and for the first ice free year (2051-2075, depending on weather and definitions) may well turn out to be wildly optimistic.

NeilT

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2278 on: June 16, 2016, 09:44:31 PM »
I previously posted a chart of coefficients of determination that indicated near zero predictive value of low ice extent early in the year (up to the "reigning in" that has always happened in May). Something strikingly different is going on this year, and the recent period of reduced melt rate has not made it go entirely away.

There are two years which match what has happened in 2016 so far, in terms of area.  2011 and 2006.  2006 is actually the closer match for earlier in the year.



The crossover tends to begin around day 152 or June 1st.  It's a pity that the sensors are broken because I believe that the trend for 2016 is slightly below that crossover as it has been slightly lower all season.

So we shall see.  I believe the season will tend to follow the 2011 path more than the 2006 path because of the seriously weakened state of the ice and the extreme pack mobility which was not there in 2006.

But I don't think that there is enough heat and weather to administer the coupe de grace, quite, this year.



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Laurent

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2279 on: June 16, 2016, 10:11:23 PM »
Am i the only one having trouble with worldview (it doesn't load) ?
http://www.arctic.io/explorer/8-8/2016-06-15;2015-06-15/9-N82.58607-W57.70685

Here a view of Lincoln sea, the ice seems to be broken but I think it is a very thin ice without snow where we see previous refrozen rubble.
 

Andreas T

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2280 on: June 16, 2016, 10:52:17 PM »
Below are some comparisons of the Beaufort Gyre over the last five years, all that is possible using WorldView (and even there 2012 needs a projection change).....

...

 Note in the third image that 2016 is qualitatively quite different than the same mid-June date in terms of distinct floes and their distribution.
....

thanks for making it easy for us to compare those years. What is most striking is how white the floes in 2016 are. Only those which have drifted near the coast are beginning to show signs of surface melting. That they have drifted that far into the open water area which has been clear of ice for that long is in itself striking, showing that these are thick floes  which take a while to melt. There is some pretty warm water in that area. DMI shows temperatures going over 10oC in places http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/satellite/index.uk.php How long will it take to melt them and how much longer for the ones which come behind them?

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2281 on: June 16, 2016, 11:33:26 PM »
What is most striking is how white the floes in 2016 are. Only those which have drifted near the coast are beginning to show signs of surface melting.

True, but these images are from the 12th. On the 14th (last clear view), visible bluing was already occuring. By this time next week, those floes will look much sicker.

NeilT

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2282 on: June 16, 2016, 11:45:36 PM »
I see the weather has changed and a polynia has opened up off the Barrow coast again.  Not a large one but a significant shift from the winds driving everything onto the coast.
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2283 on: June 16, 2016, 11:54:00 PM »
What is most striking is how white the floes in 2016 are. Only those which have drifted near the coast are beginning to show signs of surface melting.

True, but these images are from the 12th. On the 14th (last clear view), visible bluing was already occuring. By this time next week, those floes will look much sicker.

There has not been much advection of warm air in June, most of the winds came from the cold, but the bottom melting has to be amazing, as was observed there has been insolation among the storms. A pity not to be able to observe it. No surface melting and cm per day of bottom melting.
However I am surprised that the couple of storms did not spread more floes toward the coast, many of the floes as A team shows did not move much; in that 5000 km2 floe I do not expect much melting at either side.

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2284 on: June 16, 2016, 11:57:41 PM »
thanks for making it easy for us to compare those years. What is most striking is how white the floes in 2016 are. Only those which have drifted near the coast are beginning to show signs of surface melting.

Thanks a lot from me too, A-Team. I'm also surprised to see the difference in whiteness with previous years, although the Beaufort has been relatively cold and cloudy just when melt onset really kicks in.

I have just expressed my concern on the ASIB over the situation in the Beaufort Sea, given all the open water, but I might have to take some of that back if preconditioning takes so long to get going.
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2285 on: June 17, 2016, 12:20:34 AM »
Split still in progress it'll take another few weeks but showing up more and more clear on HYCOM.

NATL side will lose a couple hundred K in area over next few days, and Kara is about to go poof as well, once that happens I think we see the winds advect much more Siberian heat into the main CAB and the split will accelerate.


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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2286 on: June 17, 2016, 01:02:20 AM »
Looking at denmark satellite of sea ice and its beginning to melt more than the past week.

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2287 on: June 17, 2016, 01:16:25 AM »
Looking at denmark satellite of sea ice and its beginning to melt more than the past week.
Yes, DMI shows bottom melt beginning with massive force across all peripheral seas. The entire ESS/Chukchi lose a uniform .5M each over 5 days! Meanwhile Kara is about to melt out entirely and the whole Atlantic periphery is starting to get blowtorched off.

JimboOmega

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2288 on: June 17, 2016, 01:52:26 AM »
Looking at denmark satellite of sea ice and its beginning to melt more than the past week.
Yes, DMI shows bottom melt beginning with massive force across all peripheral seas. The entire ESS/Chukchi lose a uniform .5M each over 5 days! Meanwhile Kara is about to melt out entirely and the whole Atlantic periphery is starting to get blowtorched off.

What charts do you use for bottom melt?  Can you link it?

mati

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2289 on: June 17, 2016, 02:28:38 AM »
A nice toasty +19C in Eureka Nunavut now :)
http://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nu-11_metric_e.html
and so it goes

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2290 on: June 17, 2016, 02:52:49 AM »
  ?   Eureka is claiming just 13.9'C atm as today's highest temperature ..
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2291 on: June 17, 2016, 05:08:13 AM »
  ?   Eureka is claiming just 13.9'C atm as today's highest temperature ..

I think there may be a transcription error.  They are currently showing 14C(which I suppose could be mistaken for 19).  Even so, 14C sets a new record high for the date.
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2292 on: June 17, 2016, 05:44:39 AM »
It seems as though the heat is starting to build exponentially via feedback loops and Arctic amplification is not helping.
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2293 on: June 17, 2016, 06:41:38 AM »
  ?   Eureka is claiming just 13.9'C atm as today's highest temperature ..

I think there may be a transcription error.  They are currently showing 14C(which I suppose could be mistaken for 19).  Even so, 14C sets a new record high for the date.

A toasty 14.2 this evening, and still 14C at 11pm at night. Given the location and date, those temperatures are phenomenal.

Rob Dekker

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2294 on: June 17, 2016, 06:58:52 AM »
thanks for making it easy for us to compare those years. What is most striking is how white the floes in 2016 are. Only those which have drifted near the coast are beginning to show signs of surface melting.

Thanks a lot from me too, A-Team. I'm also surprised to see the difference in whiteness with previous years, although the Beaufort has been relatively cold and cloudy just when melt onset really kicks in.

I have just expressed my concern on the ASIB over the situation in the Beaufort Sea, given all the open water, but I might have to take some of that back if preconditioning takes so long to get going.

I'd like to second (third) these thanks to A-team.
Your post shows a great assessment of the Beaufort at this time, compared to past years, and that 2012 animation into halfway July is absolutely amazing.

It appears that in the Beaufort, 2016 is even more fragmented than 2012, which spells serious trouble down the road into July.
It also seems that these floes in 2016 are brighter than in 2012, and I wonder how much of that is simple brightness difference in the pictures, and how much is real.
MODIS does not have any 2012 pictures (something to do with their disk crash in 2013), so did you use WoldView for these comparisons ?

Also the paper you quote is very interesting. With the similar fragmentation in the Beaufort between 2012 and 2016, I can't suppress the notion that this year will develop similarly in that area of the Arctic.

On that note : Amundsen Gulf is already broken up, and ready to be flushed out.
I don not have software to make an animated GIF, but here are the images :
June 13:
https://lance.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r05c02.2016165.terra
and June 14:
https://lance.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r05c02.2016166.terra
Look how the cracks appear and the ice is loose.

All we need is some wind from the East, or current from the East, and the ice in Amundsen Gluf flushes out (before 2012 did?).
« Last Edit: June 17, 2016, 07:09:16 AM by Rob Dekker »
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2295 on: June 17, 2016, 07:07:35 AM »
  ?   Eureka is claiming just 13.9'C atm as today's highest temperature ..

I think there may be a transcription error.  They are currently showing 14C(which I suppose could be mistaken for 19).  Even so, 14C sets a new record high for the date.

A toasty 14.2 this evening, and still 14C at 11pm at night. Given the location and date, those temperatures are phenomenal.

And if you are still not impressed, look at a map. Eureka, Nanavut is at about 80 deg Latitude, well into the Arctic
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2296 on: June 17, 2016, 07:40:18 AM »
Eureka has been smoking hot for the past few days. Melting has kicked into overdrive up there.

Their CANDAC weather page is still up with webcams. Not easy to find since their site redesign.

 http://candac.ca/candac/Data/PEARL_Weather/weather.php




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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2297 on: June 17, 2016, 07:59:34 AM »
Quote
just cannot believe that folk can be viewing the same thing ...  taking the same route as the folks  saying this year definitely will break all the records, but other direction. it's still too early
This forum seems to have gone off on a panglossian disconnect with current satellite imagery, anyone's inability to predict weather even five days out, diminishing relevance of ice from past years, unfavorable changes in ice quality, seemingly unprecedented ingression of warm ocean water, and especially the latest ice products posted on the AMSR2 home brew forum.

What gives, anxiety about melt-out?

There are people here from different backgrounds with different levels of expertise who weigh particular data points more or less heavily than others.  Do not be surprised when people disagree with you.  We all can learns lot more from disagreement and being wrong than all agreeing and being right.  I have noticed a lot of people I disagree with have trouble grasping variance, that each year can vary widely and an overall trend will still emerge over a decade.  It is too soon to predict anything with certainty, and the wide variety of opinions reflect that variance, as we each each equate true state of the arctic ice with only the parameters we each understand about the ice.  The arctic is an incredibly complex system and each of our brains tries to break it down to simplified factors.  There's a lot going on up there that none of us understand.

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2298 on: June 17, 2016, 09:45:10 AM »
I have just published a post on the ASIB, explaining why the probability of this year breaking the minimum record has gone down considerably: 2016 melting momentum, part 1
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2299 on: June 17, 2016, 11:26:50 AM »
Now that we’re nearing summer solstice, I’m inclined to celebrate this event with some words of consideration.

The concern in that consideration is over what’s being lost. Not just sea ice.
I’m not going into romantic generalization, I’ll keep that for my own use. I’ll write some thoughts down  in the line of thinking that A-team expressed two days ago.

The melt season extent minimum  is an interesting detail. Of far greater importance is the year-round proportion of change. There’s no ‘E=mc2’-like benchmark to unify all indicators. Just like there’s none to classify overall gravity of illness in a sick or dying body. At the same time, there’s no need to consult a physician to get a feel where it’s going.

Considering this, I’d like to point at the possible impacts a year-long stackpile of climate-related weather-events starts unleashing. As a more informative, but still cherry-picked benchmark I’d suggest to watch for mean 12-month sea-ice extent and snow-cover.

Pick it up at summer solstice ’15 and follow it until this year’s celebration.

What’s generally lost in the biosphere could, if it would be possible to fathom, be shocking. A year’s worth of change in ice and snow expressed as 12-month mean could be too.