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Richard Rathbone

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2350 on: June 18, 2016, 01:43:14 PM »
Looking at denmark satellite of sea ice and its beginning to melt more than the past week.
Yes, DMI shows bottom melt beginning with massive force across all peripheral seas. The entire ESS/Chukchi lose a uniform .5M each over 5 days! Meanwhile Kara is about to melt out entirely and the whole Atlantic periphery is starting to get blowtorched off.


This was the comment I was referring to, by the way.

I'd ignore it. First because, as already pointed out, if its a genuine thickness change its down to drift not melt and second because the choice of data to be assimilated makes the DMI model extremely sensitive to making wrong predictions of bottom melt. The model assimilates sea surface temperature, but the only way it has of adjusting the variables to match temperature is to melt/freeze ice to change the salinity of the water in contact with the ice so a small blip in temperature measurement will drive a large error in bottom melt rate.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2351 on: June 18, 2016, 01:52:08 PM »
For an equivalent volume of ice, would not said ice contained in huge solid floes occupy a much lower extent than the same volume comprised of smaller bits?

Thus,  if that is the case, is not the recent 'stall' in extent loss possibly indicative of, in fact, a combination of on-going melt plus fragmentation of the bigger floes?  Any increase in extent then being indicative of increased smallification of floes, rather than of re-freezing.

Said effects, of course, beiing most readily discerned at ... The Edge.

you are right, it has been mentioned and of course there is no re-freezing at around 0C, if anything re-freezes at the moment it's melt ponds that while liquid were counted as reduced area and once re-frozen would count in full again.

as we can see on certain webcams where the temps were hovering between -2C and +6C there has mostly been a nightly over-freeze but then that was a millimeter or two and it was gone within the hour once temps came back above zero. this entire thing is totally volatile  which is why i, mostly to no avail, try to convince people to keep the bigger picture as to the overall amount of energy that is in the system as well, as you pointed out very well,
the fragmentation that will ultimately lead to sudden death of the at least some of the thinner ice, 2 day of heavy winds in july can do the job IMO, while we don't know if event (weather) will be in favour of one or the other scenario. sooner or later we shall see that events (weather) and condition will join forces and "boom"

slow wing

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2352 on: June 18, 2016, 03:47:36 PM »
Nullschool for 3 days' time is showing a large area depression over the ESS and into the CAB with sea level pressure down to 985 mb and winds up to 46 kmh:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/06/21/1200Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-35.44,93.43,1659/loc=170.234,79.456

If it comes to pass then I would suspect that such a system might do some damage to the ice &/or temporarily enhance the rate of both top and bottom melt.

EDIT: some precipitation as well. Up to 2.9 mm over 3 hours so up to about 1 mm/hour. That doesn't sound like much. Would it fall as rain, sleet or snow?
« Last Edit: June 18, 2016, 04:07:05 PM by slow wing »

epiphyte

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New crack north of Ellsmere Is...
« Reply #2353 on: June 18, 2016, 04:42:03 PM »
...increases the detached portion of the CAB to -  well just about all of it, really.



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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2354 on: June 18, 2016, 05:05:59 PM »
This might go in the stupid questions category, but because it is a question about this melting season, I'll ask it here.

 I understand that in the past ice camps would last 2 or 3 years (I think I saw that somewhere). If that is true, then my question is:  Is the ice in good enough conditions to support an ice camp? If it does, for how long? Can you even safely walk in the current ice conditions? Thanks
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A-Team

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2355 on: June 18, 2016, 06:07:17 PM »
Quote
ultimate driver is thermodynamic. How much heat enters the arctic. Direct heat in is a question of albedo, clouds hurt, reflective ice hurts, clear skies maximize, blue waters maximize.
Just so we are all clear on the research results (#2343) applicable to the Arctic Ocean and Greenland, clouds can and sometimes do make melt worse than straight sunlight. Indeed, heat transfer from moist imported clouds is the dominant driver of early melt of the Arctic Ocean, not sunlight through clear skies.

This seems counterintuitive because the top of the cloud reflects a portion of the sunlight back into space and so that energy never has the opportunity to warm the ice or ocean, whereas no clouds mean more solar energy reaches the surface.

However for thinner clouds like we have been seeing this spring*, quite a bit of the solar radiation does make it to the surface, either directly or after rounds of elastically scattering within the cloud. A portion of it is taken up and the rest reflected, some back up to the clouds to be partly back-scattered down again and so forth.

The counterintuitive part is where the heat (absorbed shortwave fraction) re-emits at longer wavelengths per the graybody spectrum appropriate to the ~0º C ice/water surface. The cloud is no longer transparent to this upwelling infrared so absorbs and re-radiates some of it downward. This amounts to an efficient near-surface greenhouse effect for low thin liquid-containing clouds.

After folding in all the transmissivity coefficients, the net result can be more heating of ice than would have happened had straight sunlight came down on high albedo ice or reflective water at the unfavorably oblique angles appropriate to spring/summer and Arctic latitudes.

Decades of in situ polar radiometric observations published by D Perovich and others have quantitated this for various conditions:

The Radiation Budget of Sea Ice during the Springtime Melt
http://tinyurl.com/gwsmcd8

Such clouds are very common over the Arctic and Greenland:

G Cesani 2012
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL053385/abstract

The remarkable Greenland melt event of 12 July 12 even melted dry facies at Summit Station, 3216 m). The decisive effect was not clear skies from a stagnant ridge as initially thought:

Bennartz 2013
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v496/n7443/abs/nature12002.html

"Here we show that low-level clouds consisting of liquid water droplets, via their radiative effects, played a key part in this melt event by increasing near-surface temperatures.

At the critical surface melt time, the clouds were optically thick enough and low enough to enhance the downwelling infrared flux at the surface. At the same time they were optically thin enough to allow sufficient solar radiation to penetrate through them and raise surface temperatures above the melting point.

Outside this narrow range in cloud optical thickness, the radiative contribution to the surface energy budget would have been diminished, and the spatial extent of this melting event would have been smaller.

We further show that these thin, low-level liquid clouds occur frequently, both over Greenland and across the Arctic, being present around 30–50% of the time... Global climate models fail in simulating the Arctic surface energy budget because they under-predict the formation of optically thin liquid clouds at supercooled temperatures"

Hanna 2013
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.3743/full

"In 2012, as in recent warm summers since 2007, a blocking high pressure feature, associated with negative NAO conditions, was present in the mid-troposphere over Greenland for much of the summer. This circulation pattern advected relatively warm southerly winds over the western flank of the ice sheet, forming a ‘heat dome’ over Greenland that led to the widespread surface melting."

van Tricht 2016 free full
http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160112/ncomms10266/full/ncomms10266.html

"The main drivers of Greenland ice sheet runoff remain poorly understood. Here we show that clouds enhance meltwater runoff by about one-third relative to clear skies, using a unique combination of active satellite observations, climate model data and snow model simulations. This impact results from a cloud radiative effect of 29.5 Wm2.

Contrary to conventional wisdom, however, the Greenland ice sheet responds to this energy through a new pathway by which clouds reduce meltwater refreezing as opposed to increasing surface melt directly, thereby accelerating bare-ice exposure and enhancing meltwater runoff. The high sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to both ice-only and liquid-bearing clouds highlights the need for accurate cloud representations in climate models.

The dominating effect depends strongly on cloud properties such as vertically integrated ice and liquid water contents that determine cloud optical depth and emissivity, in addition to cloud temperature, sun position and surface albedo.

CloudSat and CALIPSO data suggest liquid-bearing clouds that contain both ice and (supercooled) liquid water are present 28% of the time, consistent with other work showing that such clouds are prevalent throughout the Arctic."

*You can see that on the 367 Modis over the Beaufort because floe details are still visible, ie sunlight has passed through the clouds, reflected off the ice, passed through the clouds again and reached the satellite sensors at sufficient levels for imaging despite absorption and scattering at each step.
« Last Edit: June 18, 2016, 06:29:02 PM by A-Team »

bbr2314

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2356 on: June 18, 2016, 06:35:51 PM »
As I have been saying for weeks, the ice is going to split in two.





HYCOM also shows the ice *expanding* again towards Fram. The bulk of the CAB seems to have some kind of continuing momentum this year towards the push to oblivion.

I think we've already seen the split occur, if you look at MODIS you can see everything near Beaufort is clearly mobile and rapidly moving. The ice there is very very thick but it is essentially free ice at this point.

Visually, you can see the same now occurring clear through to the Russian side of the Arctic.

As the next several days wear on we are going to see much more open water begin to appear in this stretch, and while the Beaufort-area thick ice may visually mask the cleavage that has happened, I think it is now becoming obvious.
« Last Edit: June 18, 2016, 06:41:29 PM by bbr2314 »

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2357 on: June 18, 2016, 06:55:07 PM »
A-Team,

I went back and looked at the Sea Ice Blog posts for this period of 2012.  It seems that the early June period was marked by an exceptional high pressure ridge and clear skies, which then went into a low pressure zone that slowed the Beaufort Gyre and spreading remaining ice.

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2012/06/asi-2012-update-5-when-graphs-agree.html

What seems more clear by this post is that the previous high pressure system set up for further ice melt but then a strong high pressure (and high temperatures!) zone over siberia pushed regional temperatures up and burned up the ice with a blowtorch effect.

Quote
It looks like we're going to see the exact opposite conditions in the coming week, with that low staying put over the Beaufort Sea and bringing the Beaufort Gyre to a halt. According to melting-season-rules this should slow down SIE and SIA decreases considerably, but at the same time I can't help but wonder what those cyclonic winds are going to do the ice pack. Never mind the fact there is a serious high forming over the Siberian regions, right around the time of the Summer Solstice. Open water + 24 hr Sun = mucho heat accumulation.

This led to the rapid 2012 SIE decline starting around June 27th 2012.

However, we do not have a similar set up this year, as Neven noted above a strong low pressure system (and cold temps, with clouds) is going to dominate the CAB.  This picture is the nullschool projection for the Solstice.  These cold temperatures will likely halt melt but the prevailing winds, combined with the shattered CAB may lead to some unprecedented structural movements.  We really have not seen this before, not since I started following here in 2011.

(image below: nullschool projection low pressure dominated CAB on June 21, 2016)
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2358 on: June 18, 2016, 07:06:05 PM »
don't worry guys, extent and area are similar to 2012 ;)




epiphyte

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Re: New crack north of Ellsmere Is...
« Reply #2359 on: June 18, 2016, 07:10:45 PM »
...increases the detached portion of the CAB to -  well just about all of it, really.


Well if it hadn't then, it has now...


bbr2314

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2360 on: June 18, 2016, 07:12:59 PM »
HYCOM and the new cracks make it obvious that almost the entire Arctic is now "ungrounded" and in free drift. Look at the cracks, the floes across the entire SW quadrant -- and what's coming up in terms of concentration decreases.

This year is far worse than 2012 and the extent and area plateau was a symptom of something much worse happening -- a complete split!

I would venture to predict that as the cleavage becomes complete and we see large areas of open water developing, the propensity for a GAC *worse* than 2012 will increase quite a bit, as the contrast between the open water soaking up all that solar energy & the surrounding ice will be quite dramatic.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2361 on: June 18, 2016, 07:38:37 PM »
As I have been saying for weeks, the ice is going to split in two.
...
You have been repeating yourself!   ;)
This other - less based on a model - UNI Bremen sea ice concentration image doesn't (in my opinion) show the potential split HYCOM does.

This image (larger scale) is available on the ASI Graphs - Concentration page.
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2362 on: June 18, 2016, 07:45:49 PM »
So if you recall the dancing the little floes did in the recent animation of Beaufort ice edge you can imagine what a difference two pods of ice ( as opposed to one big ,interlocking pack?) would make if we see Atlantic/Pacific sides part?

The gyre would have no 'drag' from the ice out over the pole into our ( Atlantic) side of the basin and the Atlantic side would be prey to every little low that skirmishes with Svalbard? Seeing as we know that smaller floes travel faster than lumbering large ones was this what 'Crackopalypse' was all about? Smashing floes each late winter and glueing them back together again as 'faux' large floes?

If every scar line, on the big floes left, is an old wound knitted together with younger ice then how much will the pack separate this summer giving melt/mechanical forcings?

 How much will be drawn off by each new wind forcing or current draw this time around?

Divide and conquer?
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2363 on: June 18, 2016, 07:47:06 PM »
Nullschool for 3 days' time is showing a large area depression over the ESS and into the CAB with sea level pressure down to 985 mb and winds up to 46 kmh:


If it comes to pass then I would suspect that such a system might do some damage to the ice &/or temporarily enhance the rate of both top and bottom melt.

EDIT: some precipitation as well. Up to 2.9 mm over 3 hours so up to about 1 mm/hour. That doesn't sound like much. Would it fall as rain, sleet or snow?

That is going to hurt real bad.
It is going to affect the already broken areas of Laptev, ESS, Chukchi. It may even open up Beaufort a bit more.
I am looking at MODIS and the effect of the past storms was so bad. Laptev and ESS have a lot of open water now and the winds are going to sweep really strong over there. Then Chukchi is showing holes where the storm passed before, plus surface melting came back. This Big Mac as is called can really break it in half (yes bbr), but I see it as a lot of polynia all around, not real melting yet.

The big if is if this will be followed by warm continental and Pacific winds, and by sun. If so, it will be extremely interesting.

From EOSDIS worldview, the first image is Chukchi and its CAB sector (right half of the image), showing small gaps of open ocean. Nothing out of ordinary if it wasn't because another storm is going to hit. This area is really vulnerable should weather change and heat come from the Pacific (from left of image, sorry that I could not anchor the pic to any reference).
The second image is the huge breach and polynya open in ESS and Laptev in a few days. Now these gaps are going to widen with the winds shown by slow_wing.
« Last Edit: June 18, 2016, 08:41:19 PM by seaicesailor »

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2364 on: June 18, 2016, 07:56:39 PM »
Maybe this is the evolution we should be looking for prior to the basin being ready for yearly melt out? A pack that readily breaks into small floes over spring/early summer leaving swarms of small floes that respond to every little whim of the air/currents?

We no longer appear to need 'export' , via the normal channels, if we see 'kill zones open up at the periphery of the basin each year?

I the past open , warmed waters, needed extra special forcing to drag a huge floe into the area.

Small floes that can travel unmolested???

I think it would be worth watching to see just how easy it is for small areas of fragmented ice to become isolated in warmed waters over the next 6 weeks? This may well prove to be another mechanism that accelerates the melt rate of the ice by exposing ice , more readily, to 'melt zones'?
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Robert Greer

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2365 on: June 18, 2016, 08:34:51 PM »
Tor Bejnar, even if you disregard the model's prediction for next week, the actual data from 6/17 shows a much more "cleaved" CAB than in 2012, even compared to a map from a week later in the season.

I was hoping to find some satellite images from this time 2012 to compare, but didn't see any in the archives section of Neven's blog. It seems like a much larger area of the Arctic is composed of soupy floes and leads than in years past. The only section that doesn't look subject to in-situ meltout is the ice that could easily be exported through the Fram in favorable conditions.

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2366 on: June 18, 2016, 08:43:44 PM »
Yes, there is a patch of lower concentration ice in the center of the CAB but with a mobile ice pack, that could close in a couple of days with a shift in wind patterns.

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Re: New crack north of Ellsmere Is...
« Reply #2367 on: June 18, 2016, 08:54:55 PM »
...increases the detached portion of the CAB to -  well just about all of it, really.


Well if it hadn't then, it has now...

Cracks may be influenced by 12°temp and 50+kph southerly winds reported at Alert at present (6/18 @ 2:00pm local time).

Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2368 on: June 18, 2016, 09:07:05 PM »
Yes, there is a patch of lower concentration ice in the center of the CAB but with a mobile ice pack, that could close in a couple of days with a shift in wind patterns.

But wouldn't such a 'kiss' lead to mechanical weathering as the floes re-engage?

I have been reacting to my tingling spidee senses for two weeks now and , to me, it is the 'fragmentation thing' at the root of my discomfort!

We knew a reducing volume lead to the thinner pack and that it would be far more fragile but this apparent move toward the pack reorganising into small floe sizes over the first bit of the high melt part of the season ( on the back of 3 years of late winter fragmentation events giving us floes with multiple scar seams) must be edging us toward accelerated melt rates by both enhanced mechanical degradation ( as smaller floes mangle with each other )and faster flow into active melt zones ( so further increases open water and expands the active 'kill zones'?) and we have the active melt zones already!
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werther

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2369 on: June 18, 2016, 09:11:53 PM »
Hi all,
Yesterday I posted on being not too excited over Eureka temps. But +17dC on the 17th was quite high. And sort of fohn-effect now has reached Alert. Strong S winds. Look at the leads opening up in the Lincoln Sea!
This is an area experiencing +4 = +6 dC mean temp anomaly all winter. It must have weakened the pack ice relative to earlier years. Mobility is higher than I've ever seen on MODIS.

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2370 on: June 18, 2016, 09:23:30 PM »
When you look at the 'ice age' animations , and see the ice spewing out into Fram, then you need picture four or five of those 'little basins' sat inside the Arctic basin ( as the pack falls apart into small floes and 'weather' shepherds them into individual pods) from every August onward, both melting in situ and throwing ice at active coastal melt zones, and you have a view of how a small component basin might act prior to its yearly melt out in years to come?
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werther

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2371 on: June 18, 2016, 09:26:56 PM »
Anyway, let's not get over-excited.
As Neven posted on the 12th, this pack isn't going to get cleaved.

Although I'm eager to discern effects of the anomalous warm winter, I regard a 'cleave', for instance on the line Ellesmere - New Sib Islands, to have a very, very low probability.
This is a line through the 1.8 Mkm2 'safe pack' as has been visible for years now through MODIS.
In '13, the dispersed pack allowed an almost complete 'cleave' on the line Chukchi Sea - Frantsa Yosefa.
To produce anything alike on the line Ellesmere - NS Islands, an extraordinary weather set-up should unfold. If I would start seeing that as a possibility, I would take the movie 'Day after tomorrow' serious in retrospective.


werther

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2372 on: June 18, 2016, 09:38:18 PM »
Gray Wolf,
I can't exactly conceptualize what you mean. Things are much better discussed over actual data, FI a good MODIS interpretation.
I suppose you aim at smaller floe-size, dis-integration of the pack, more mobility and especially in the CAB. Making it easier to flush in the direction of Fram Strait.
If so, I  agree that this could be today's situation, relative to earlier years. But Floe-size and lead-structure was bad already in '11, and movement was in the 30-40 km/day range then.

It remains to be seen if this year will really stand out. And whether weather-events will make it show.

Its time for a N Greenland floe-count on CAD again. But holiday is almost here too, hurray!
« Last Edit: June 18, 2016, 10:02:53 PM by werther »

Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2373 on: June 18, 2016, 09:55:26 PM »
Hi Werther!

I'm just running with what I can imagine occurring if ice continues to lose volume and so fragmentation events, over winter, leave a pack ready to shatter into 5km floes ( or some such?).

When I watch the edge of the ice, exported by Fram, you see wonderful patterns in the 'flour' that is left once the ice goes? this is what I'm imagining the whole of the inner basin of the future will look like?  an open ,fragmented pack , able to fall foul of any forcings to move ( as we saw those individual floes spin off in the earlier Beaufort animations?) More open water means more active melt zones and more 'pods', of highly mobile floes, would tend to run into 'hostile conditions' more often than static floes?

We may witness a limited version of this this year as the already active melt zones ready receive flotsam cast off by the main ice pack?



KOYAANISQATSI

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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2374 on: June 18, 2016, 10:02:43 PM »
Anyway, let's not get over-excited.
As Neven posted on the 12th, this pack isn't going to get cleaved.

Although I'm eager to discern effects of the anomalous warm winter, I regard a 'cleave', for instance on the line Ellesmere - New Sib Islands, to have a very, very low probability.
This is a line through the 1.8 Mkm2 'safe pack' as has been visible for years now through MODIS.
In '13, the dispersed pack allowed an almost complete 'cleave' on the line Chukchi Sea - Frantsa Yosefa.
To produce anything alike on the line Ellesmere - NS Islands, an extraordinary weather set-up should unfold. If I would start seeing that as a possibility, I would take the movie 'Day after tomorrow' serious in retrospective.

Noted. I see the "cleave" as a lot of broken ice more vulnerable to warmth and sun, not as something fantastic that will let the pack "loose" and then will "fall" to the Atlantic.
But I don't see why not possible that polynya could form continuously from Siberia to Ellesmere. Thick ice can fracture easily as well (and I won't mention how fast these diverge so as to not enter in another classic off-topic).
Whether they end up melting or not, that is another story.

werther

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2375 on: June 18, 2016, 10:12:59 PM »
Flotsam… well yes, it could be seen in ’12, at the end of an awesome season, when broken debris was spreading and almost melted between the Pole and Severnaya Zemlya.

I thought a whole 1 Mkm2 sector out there was being sacked too. The research icebreaker Polarstern was out there at the time. They had a hard time finding any floe worthwhile to carry out their experiments.
But that sector was relieved just in time by a Sep 17th refreeze.

werther

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2376 on: June 18, 2016, 10:21:31 PM »
SeaIceSailor, hi,

This last winter was an anomalous warm winter over the Arctic. I did a CAD-aided mean anomaly count and the outcome was considerably worse than any other winter.
I know -20dC as a mean is still cold. But the lack of 'winter power' must have had an impact.
But if PIOMAS is worth anything, there must still be considerable volume in the CAB.
If a dispersion happens in the line Ellesmere-NSib Islands, it would be very alarming.

Anyway, I'm quite awake already, watching MODIS turn blue over the Lincoln Sea today. How long will the Nares Stait ice arch stand its ground?
Even on Peterman Glacier, melt ponds stand out clear and present.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2377 on: June 18, 2016, 11:11:45 PM »
Flotsam… well yes, it could be seen in ’12, at the end of an awesome season, when broken debris was spreading and almost melted between the Pole and Severnaya Zemlya.

I thought a whole 1 Mkm2 sector out there was being sacked too. The research icebreaker Polarstern was out there at the time. They had a hard time finding any floe worthwhile to carry out their experiments.
But that sector was relieved just in time by a Sep 17th refreeze.
I don't recall the years, but late in several melting seasons, we have seen broad expanses of the Arctic with melange or slush (or called by other names) - 2011 Slush Puppie Animation as an example reference.  Some years a bunch of it melts out; other years much of the vulnerable stuff freezes back into solid ice - leaving us with ice age map areas with mixed colors.  If, this year, anybody claims large ice floes are breaking into melange earlier, I wouldn't be surprised.  I am not convinced that the 2012 GAC (Great Arctic Cyclone [in August]) melted ice that would have melted out anyway [I am convinced the GAC quickly melted a bunch of ice]; I've seen too much vulnerable ice survive.
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Neven

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2378 on: June 19, 2016, 12:14:39 AM »
Stop talking about that cleavage! You guys are turning me on.  ;)

Werther said it right. There was much more dispersal power in 2013, but I don't even recall any cleavage. I'll repeat: Don't take everything the ACNFS model produces as gospel.

Anyway, the GFS is a nice, little weather forecast model, but I'm more of an ECMWF fan. Even thought forecasts are now less reliable and oscillate quite a bit, the ECMWF forecasts during the past few days kept forecasting high pressure areas to defend the American fort, and even expand a bit out over the Beaufort Sea. This forecast has now moved into the 6-day zone (and has strengthened some more for days 7-10):



Just a small nudge towards the CAB, and you have a dipole with a sufficient pressure gradient to push the ice away from the American coast. Add to that another potential heat wave on the way, according to Climate Reanalyzer:



Never mind the Siberian side. Enough stuff going on without having to have to grope for the cleavage (just the word to bring out the sexist in me  :-[).

I am not bored. In fact, I hope I'll be able to catch everything. To make things easier and the ASI updates shorter, I'm going to write separate blog posts on the regional stuff.
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2380 on: June 19, 2016, 12:54:41 AM »
Looks like the amplification's finding its groove. That's a lot of heat building up. All that land heat has got to go somewhere.
P.S. Nothing exactly new but exacerbated maybe, a lot more shallow Arctic lakes in Alaska have thawing permafrost in the lake beds this year. Heating faster than that on land. Don't know if that will affect the outcome of this year's melt, but maybe on down the line it will.
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2381 on: June 19, 2016, 01:12:14 AM »
I think there are a few critical stages to Arctic sea melt we have passed much earlier than previous years.

One of the most important is the snowmelt across the continents, as the faster we lose snowpack in Canada/Alaska/Siberia, the easier access warm winds have to the proper Arctic.

While the lack of melt momentum has blunted the impact of warm winds this year in a select portion of the NHEM (Quebec, parts of Nunavut, and splotches of far northern Siberia), the overall melt has been horrific, and has allowed warm winds to begin attacking the Arctic for several weeks at this point.

The next big steps come with the melting of the Kara Sea, which allows the warm winds to push much further N. It appears the Siberian Seas are also collapsing, and wide areas of open water should begin appearing there in about a week (50% concentration or lower wide).

I think we are seeing the implications of the death of the Kara ice in the blocking that is now showing up over the region by D10 on the EURO. Without the ice, heat can project directly into the Arctic. This seems to also have a side-effect of opening up the UK and Northern Europe to airmasses coming directly off Greenland, as well.

If you think of the melt season as a possible sequence of connecting & cause/effect events the context of the 'pause' makes much more sense as the consequences become more clear.

It should also be noted that this kind of ripping did not occur at all last year.

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2382 on: June 19, 2016, 03:40:53 AM »
It is really creepy to look at the LANCE mosaic and see all the snow is gone in mid June.

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2383 on: June 19, 2016, 10:37:31 AM »
BBR2314 : You are obviously wrong... Shame on you !!!


It isn't split in two... but, but, but in thousands ! Where are the boundaries now ? What we can see is a central Arctic part that is for the moment one but from Beaufort to Laptev there is broken flows nothing of a single part (ok a bit of integrity remains but not for long). There is the green area that seems to be one but I do not expect it to last much. The blue area will pass the oblivion zone before the end of September.
To be clear, I am not saying that red and green will all melt before September just that it would seriously be hit !
https://lance.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic.2016170.terra.4km
Check the tiles.
« Last Edit: June 19, 2016, 11:01:15 AM by Laurent »

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2384 on: June 19, 2016, 10:57:58 AM »
Quite some rain on central Arctic for next week.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2385 on: June 19, 2016, 11:33:29 AM »
Sorry Laurent, but most of the precip in the CABwill be as snow..... Check out CCI Reanalyzer.


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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2386 on: June 19, 2016, 11:45:15 AM »
ah ah http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/#ARC-LEA cci-reanalyser say something else... it is mixed rain and snow, more snow than rain.
Do you know an other site that do Arctic forecast to check ?

Found that article while searching for an other forecast : http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/melting-arctic-ice-precipitation_us_56796ffde4b014efe0d6c7fa
« Last Edit: June 19, 2016, 12:03:19 PM by Laurent »

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2387 on: June 19, 2016, 12:15:28 PM »
Flotsam… well yes, it could be seen in ’12, at the end of an awesome season, when broken debris was spreading and almost melted between the Pole and Severnaya Zemlya.

I thought a whole 1 Mkm2 sector out there was being sacked too. The research icebreaker Polarstern was out there at the time. They had a hard time finding any floe worthwhile to carry out their experiments.
But that sector was relieved just in time by a Sep 17th refreeze.
I don't recall the years, but late in several melting seasons, we have seen broad expanses of the Arctic with melange or slush (or called by other names) - 2011 Slush Puppie Animation as an example reference.  Some years a bunch of it melts out; other years much of the vulnerable stuff freezes back into solid ice - leaving us with ice age map areas with mixed colors.  If, this year, anybody claims large ice floes are breaking into melange earlier, I wouldn't be surprised.  I am not convinced that the 2012 GAC (Great Arctic Cyclone [in August]) melted ice that would have melted out anyway [I am convinced the GAC quickly melted a bunch of ice]; I've seen too much vulnerable ice survive.

Tor and Werther, I really see a band there that can worsen a lot during the predicted storms.
Yet, indeed 2013 was way worse, with the effect of the PAC almost reaching the Pole.
There was not sufficient warmth and compaction, and it was the rebound year (look at Beaufort, Barents and Kara! )
In a few days Laptev should be in a similar state like that seen in the 2013 map. Well, not really :)

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2388 on: June 19, 2016, 12:38:00 PM »
ah ah http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/#ARC-LEA cci-reanalyser say something else... it is mixed rain and snow, more snow than rain.
Do you know an other site that do Arctic forecast to check ?

Found that article while searching for an other forecast : http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/melting-arctic-ice-precipitation_us_56796ffde4b014efe0d6c7fa

Hey Laurent,

Here is the experimental FIM, it's a cousin to the GFS and has similar skill scores.  Many parameters are available to look at.

Edit: also remember this is snow fall, not snow depth, so it doesn't take into account compaction and melting.  It also doesn't differentiate between snow and sleet.

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=fim_jet

First attachment is the 19.0z 96 hour forecast

Second attachment is the last 4 runs of the model, to show how the forecast is evolving.
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2389 on: June 19, 2016, 01:38:07 PM »
Nullschool for 3 days' time is showing a large area depression over the ESS and into the CAB with sea level pressure down to 985 mb and winds up to 46 kmh:
   ....
It is going to affect the already broken areas of Laptev, ESS, Chukchi. It may even open up Beaufort a bit more.
   ....
Quite some rain on central Arctic for next week.
That's the first low of a one-two punch.  The second cyclone, over Laptev around the 22nd, will be about as low, though with less rain and more snow.  Winds likely to stir up the ice near the coast.
    Notably, the cyclone forecast intensity has been increasing, according to CCI Reanalyzer.  Here's yesterday's forecast for the peak vs. today's (which occurs later; the cyclone duration forecast has also increased).
       2016 Jun 22 0300 UTC as of June 18 0000

       2016 June 22 1200 UTC as of June 19 0000


    I read this shift in the forecast as an indication that the early melt in Kara is contributing to cyclogenesis within the Arctic.  If so, we can expect above-normal melt rates in Laptev in coming weeks.

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2390 on: June 19, 2016, 02:46:21 PM »
That is ugly.
Seems also some warmth, if briefly is going to be dragged from Pacific-side and Eurasia.

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2391 on: June 19, 2016, 03:07:35 PM »
@ seaicesailor

yes, but its also to note, that 2013 was much colder. In 2013, cold inversion was full restored with extrem cold on the 80N: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

This cool stay a long time in 2013. I dont think we should except same same outcome of 2013

bbr2314

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2392 on: June 19, 2016, 04:19:02 PM »
Laurent -- nice post!

Re: 2013 -- I think that the crucial difference between this year and that is the extra heat in general on both sides, but especially in the Beaufort.

In 2013, you can see the Beaufort was still solid at this point; the 'wedge' of thick ice that used to exist every year in that area basically kept the majority of the pack 'locked' into place.

The crucial change this year appears to be the open water in Beaufort. While it looks to have stayed the same size since about May, it has *not* -- there has been a definite exchange with the icepack and it is that process that seems to have undermined the structural integrity of the majority of the Arctic sea ice.

Think of it as a bridge with the Beaufort acting as the keystone... no keystone, no bridge!

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2393 on: June 19, 2016, 05:10:37 PM »
After reading Robert Scibbler's take on just how much energy the 'new' levels of Arctic Amplification brings to the planet ( more than the Nino imparted over the last year???) we surely must expect eventual changes to the current workings of the climate system?

 This year we may be watching this slow evolution at play and some folk might find they need 'update' their current understandings of the working of the basin ( I know none of us know it all but some long held beliefs might be falling by the way side?).

Let us see just how the L.P.'s impact the basin over this coming week to see whether we are indeed edging toward a time where the lows always spell trouble for a summer ice pack?
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2394 on: June 19, 2016, 06:34:58 PM »
 Yeah, he also pointed out that El Nino has been blamed(most likely falsely) for heat in regions the last couple years that it has not affected very much in the past. Skeptics want to blame it and say that its a cyclical thing and it will cool back off. It is becoming more obvious that the feedbacks are getting a life of their own.
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2395 on: June 19, 2016, 06:38:17 PM »
This year we may be watching this slow evolution at play and some folk might find they need 'update' their current understandings of the working of the basin.

The Arctic Basin has completely separated from the Western Hemisphere.

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2396 on: June 19, 2016, 07:09:18 PM »
Perhaps it should also be noted that we just witnessed a flip in the QBO that has never been seen before (thread over in 'consequences'). Perhaps the amount of heat injected last year and through winter was enough to trigger a state change in the greater Arctic.

In any case, the current happenings on satellite are unprecedented.

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2397 on: June 19, 2016, 08:21:28 PM »
Perhaps it should also be noted that we just witnessed a flip in the QBO that has never been seen before (thread over in 'consequences').

Where's that?

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2398 on: June 19, 2016, 08:31:30 PM »
I mean, I know about the 'Consequences' section of 'AGW in general', but where in that is the QBO discussion?

And as long as I'm asking...A-Team's #2355 post contains this: 'The remarkable Greenland melt event of 12 July 12 even melted dry facies at Summit Station, 3216 m).' What is/are dry facies? I found references to 'dry snow facies' with Google, but the definition I find for 'facies' is 'the character of a rock expressed by its formation, composition, and fossil content', and I don't see where dry snow comes into that. Does it just mean 'an area covered by dry snow'?

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2399 on: June 19, 2016, 09:27:09 PM »
Neven, ladies and gentlemen, we may have a GAC! Latest ECMWF 12z run is bombing the cyclone down to 974 hpa in 48 hours. Any ideas about how much damage such a large and strong cyclone will do to the ice?

How intensive was the GAC of 2012?

It's lucky for the ice that we just are in June and not August.