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Adam Ash

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2500 on: June 22, 2016, 01:05:34 PM »
Indeed Slow Wing..

At 850 hPa the dipole is even more pronounced.

NH Low rotates anti-clockwise.  45-degrees to the right of that Russia - Canada side sends ice straight into the Beaufort melting pot, while the Canada-Russia side sends it directly out to the Atlantic.  It will be interesting to see if there is a rift apparent after a few hours of this along the axis of the dipole.
« Last Edit: June 22, 2016, 01:39:12 PM by Adam Ash »

Nick_Naylor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2501 on: June 22, 2016, 01:15:16 PM »
The HAC has already left some visible damage in its wake - unclear whether it's from wind or rain.
It will be interesting to see if this extends over the whole storm track.

JayW

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2502 on: June 22, 2016, 01:20:11 PM »
This is the wide shot of my earlier image.  The "rifting" can be seen in the upper left corner, and the movement extends all the way to the Beaufort.  100 hour loop.  Last image is 15 hours old, the next Suomi-VIIRS pass should catch some of the affected area in about 2 hours.

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Jim Pettit

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2503 on: June 22, 2016, 01:48:35 PM »
I've posted a second post on Melting momentum this year.

Quote
Long story short: Even though 2016 has been breaking records all year so far, as things currently stand, it will take special weather conditions for it to break any records near the end of the melting season.

Agreed.

--IJIS extent has experienced one of its slowest June's on record, losing just 69% of the 10-year monthly average-to-date, and only about half of what 2012 did by this time of the month. To be sure, 2016 is still in the lead, but not by much; a few consecutive slow days could drop it back to 4th place.

--Sea ice area has already fallen back to third, and it needs at least a century drop today to stay in the top three. It took SIA 15 days to fall from 9 million km2 to 8 million km2, a longer period of time than any other year in the satellite record. Number of days it took 2012 to fall from 11M to 8M: 29. Number of days it took 2013: 33. Number of days it took 2016: 45.

In short: while there were abundant signs of possible "supermelt" status, 2016 has for the past two months been merely average, or even slightly below that. So if the remaining heart of the melt season--only another eight or nine weeks--doesn't see something spectacular, some here (including me) will be left scratching their heads...

Laurent

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2504 on: June 22, 2016, 02:23:45 PM »
Same as JayW but with Worldview

Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2505 on: June 22, 2016, 04:23:36 PM »
Is ist just me, or does someone else see that possible "August extent", too?
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2506 on: June 22, 2016, 04:44:41 PM »
Just checked the latest Ensemble GFS 06z run. IF that run holds there is increasing likelihood that the Atlantic side will take a huge dive as a high pressure will build in over Kara and Barentz Sea and Laptev. This should allow for some compacting and a decent melting of the ice there. If the high pressure would evolve further east it might get some really bad impacts on the very thin ice in the Atlantic sector. There are also some signs of somewhat less cyclonic weather in the Pacific sector.

TerryM

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2507 on: June 22, 2016, 05:07:44 PM »
Indeed Slow Wing..

At 850 hPa the dipole is even more pronounced.

NH Low rotates anti-clockwise.  45-degrees to the right of that Russia - Canada side sends ice straight into the Beaufort melting pot, while the Canada-Russia side sends it directly out to the Atlantic.  It will be interesting to see if there is a rift apparent after a few hours of this along the axis of the dipole.


If this is maintained for any time Ekman pumping will be a huge driver of deep warm water across almost the full width of the Arctic Ocean. I'm used to seeing results from localised cyclonic action, but those two parallel. opposing, air streams, each forcing ice to the right of their tracks could make up for our slow June melt in short order.
Great find!!
Terry

bbr2314

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2508 on: June 22, 2016, 06:46:40 PM »
Indeed Slow Wing..

At 850 hPa the dipole is even more pronounced.

NH Low rotates anti-clockwise.  45-degrees to the right of that Russia - Canada side sends ice straight into the Beaufort melting pot, while the Canada-Russia side sends it directly out to the Atlantic.  It will be interesting to see if there is a rift apparent after a few hours of this along the axis of the dipole.
Isn't it slightly suspicious to anyone that this LP event looks like it centers on the fissure that has opened across the entire pack?

It looks like all the open water is basically feeding the beast... albeit temporarily as not much heat has accumulated (yet!)

This will change over the next few weeks. HYCOM shows the split in the pack becoming more pronounced and legitimately spanning from Canada to Siberia. As the pack splits in two, and as we see storms traverse the split, I think the chances of a completely ice-free Arctic this year are increasing quite dramatically.


Laurent

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2509 on: June 22, 2016, 07:37:54 PM »

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2510 on: June 22, 2016, 08:15:49 PM »
12z Ensemble GFS is very stubborn and have a high pressure situated at Novaya Zemlya at +264h(!) That is the day before Independence Day, quite remarkable! Let's see if the EURO agrees with this. Having an ensemble showing a high pressure system at 1020 hpa that far from now should be a hint of what to expect by the beginning of July. The Atlantic sector may go nuts in July if this forecast holds. Low pressure seems to be in charge at the North American side.

Neven

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2511 on: June 22, 2016, 08:23:17 PM »
As the pack splits in two, and as we see storms traverse the split, I think the chances of a completely ice-free Arctic this year are increasing quite dramatically.

Before making such bold pronouncements, you may want to wait for confirmation on other sea ice concentration maps. How do you know ACNFS is accurate? It rarely has been over the years (though still useful).

As for the 'completely ice-free Arctic' this year: live and learn.
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2512 on: June 22, 2016, 08:50:43 PM »
I agree with Neven, a complete ice-free Arctic this year is completely unrealistic. So far, the average Arctic SIE decline have been about 13% per decade by September. Roughly speaking, per NSIDC the SIE have declined by approximatively 2,5 Mn km2 during the last 35 years or so. If that pace would to continue, 2050 would be a much more realistic year to have ice-free conditions in the Arctic basin.

Personally, I don't think we'll see the race to the bottom until next switch to negative PDO occurrs. Slushy and fractured ice should be the dominant mode for the next 10-15 years.

Best, LMV

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2513 on: June 22, 2016, 09:00:51 PM »
The Op 12z EURO backs the idea of a high pressure over the Russian Arctic by beginning of July.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2514 on: June 22, 2016, 09:15:58 PM »
Yeah, the Arctic is just gonna have a about a zillion little pieces of ice like a giant slushy; but it won't be ice free in September. It will sure be weak at the start of next season.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2515 on: June 22, 2016, 09:45:51 PM »
Indeed Slow Wing..

At 850 hPa the dipole is even more pronounced.

NH Low rotates anti-clockwise.  45-degrees to the right of that Russia - Canada side sends ice straight into the Beaufort melting pot, while the Canada-Russia side sends it directly out to the Atlantic.  It will be interesting to see if there is a rift apparent after a few hours of this along the axis of the dipole.


If this is maintained for any time Ekman pumping will be a huge driver of deep warm water across almost the full width of the Arctic Ocean. I'm used to seeing results from localised cyclonic action, but those two parallel. opposing, air streams, each forcing ice to the right of their tracks could make up for our slow June melt in short order.
Great find!!
Terry

I'm concerned about Ekman pumping as well.  Because the pack is so fractured, it's much more mobile, and the latest animations from the storm really do show massive movement.  At the very least, any fresh water lenses which tend to protect the ice have been disrupted.  The $64 question now is just how much heat has been brought up from depth.
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johnm33

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2516 on: June 22, 2016, 09:51:47 PM »
I was looking at these spots earlier,  5/6 lighter rounds.

thinking they were examples of ekman pumping in action. Watch them evolve from more to less saline,

jdallen

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2517 on: June 22, 2016, 09:52:37 PM »
Beaufort lower left, Laptev upper right.  Path of the storm between.

The current condition of this stretch of ice really does strike me as extraordinary.

Comments?
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Laurent

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2518 on: June 22, 2016, 10:13:58 PM »
first comment : ouahou !!!

Second comment : We have to revise our thinking about how clouds at this time of year are terrible for the ice. I think.

Third comment : Hycom is worth watching, off course like any forecast, do not trust it fully. Compare, Analyse, check etc...

Fourth Comment : I think we do not look enough at the big picture, like what are the patterns of the jet streams that develop in the northern Hemisphere, just like may be this event is due to cloud effect but may also be due to a special pattern in the jet stream that does bring, repeatedly warm winds in the same direction, with rain with it. (off course helped by warm winter, poor ice quality...). Some of you may analyse that perhaps ?

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2519 on: June 22, 2016, 10:35:21 PM »
Comments?

Seconding Laurent, I have no words for that other than expletives or "Slurpee".  In my opinion, HYCOM and bbr2314 can take a victory lap.

Given current dynamics, I presume we would not expect refreezing of this water over the next few months, especially if there was significant mixing of water strata, which would be pretty credible.  I see nothing in progged temperatures nor the models that called this to indicate the possibility.  It's fortunate that this happened after the Solstice, but it's still very early in the melt season -- much earlier than the GAC struck in 2012.

I can't imagine what this does for mobility of the ice in general nor the implications of that.  To underline another of Laurent's points, I think we really have to expect the unexpected.  I would also expect model skill to decline, since I wouldn't have anticipated this in designing one.  We may have to rely more on human analysis.
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2520 on: June 22, 2016, 11:50:53 PM »
Beaufort lower left, Laptev upper right.  Path of the storm between.

The current condition of this stretch of ice really does strike me as extraordinary.

Comments?

Very few floes of any decent size as compared to the Beaufort.

Rubikscube

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2521 on: June 23, 2016, 12:08:14 AM »
This will change over the next few weeks. HYCOM shows the split in the pack becoming more pronounced and legitimately spanning from Canada to Siberia. As the pack splits in two, and as we see storms traverse the split, I think the chances of a completely ice-free Arctic this year are increasing quite dramatically.

The pack is not going to spilt from Siberia to Canada, period. What can happen is a larger part of the pack detaching from the rest in the ESS, after all it did happen in 2012, and this year with lots of thick ice stacked up against the far east siberian coast it may very well happen again.

Secondly melt favourability is not really a question about HP vs LP or coulds vs sun, it is basically a question about heat influx vs no heat influx. It is just that a LP dominated arctic tend to isolate cold arctic air masses whereas the opposite is often the case with HP domination, occasionally it will work the other way around, as in 2014 when prolonged HP domination failed to create any WAA at all, or as in the case of this most recent storm which did, and still is, spurring offshore winds and sucking in warm air fronts on is back, possibly causing some lethal rain-to-ice-action. Heat is what cause the ice to melt, not barometer preasure.

Good thing it's that early within melt season, i think. Shouldn't be much damage done. If the same thing would happen August, we'd see quite a punch, eh.

Storms does not automatically do more damage towards the end of the season, in 2013 a barrage of powerfull 970 pHa storms coincided with a spectacular August stall in area, extent and volume loss. Events in late 2011 and 2012 suggests that the ice consentration need to be below 50% if there is going to be significant "flash melting" with accompanying SIA drops from storm and wind action, otherwise heat influx and ice compaction will have to be present to cause damage.

« Last Edit: June 23, 2016, 12:57:17 AM by Rubikscube »

bbr2314

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2522 on: June 23, 2016, 12:25:13 AM »
This will change over the next few weeks. HYCOM shows the split in the pack becoming more pronounced and legitimately spanning from Canada to Siberia. As the pack splits in two, and as we see storms traverse the split, I think the chances of a completely ice-free Arctic this year are increasing quite dramatically.

The pack is not going to spilt from Siberia to Canada, period. What can happen is a larger part of the pack detaching from the rest in the ESS, after all it did happen in 2012, and this year with lots of thick ice stacked up against the far east siberian coast it may very well happen again.


I strongly disagree... it has already happened, if you loop through MODIS you can clearly see everything east of the purple line is speeding towards the ATL while what's west is relatively stable, in past few days the leads/fissures have grown much larger. It may not be a total cleavage yet but it is apparent that the structural integrity of the pack is no longer existent.


JimboOmega

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2523 on: June 23, 2016, 01:49:09 AM »
Meanwhile... tomorrow's forecast high for Barrow, where there's still ice, is 51F (but wow is there a lot of open water on the webcam, and a huge... melt pond? Near to the shore).

And in York Factory the high is forecast to be 72F... can't say it looks good for the Hudson ice either.

Tomorrows High in Chersky on the ESS is 71F... 

None of these locations is forecast to get significantly below freezing at any time in the next week (one day has a low of 31F at Barrow)

How much can the ice really take?  Even if it's sometimes cloudy?

jdallen

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2524 on: June 23, 2016, 02:00:36 AM »
Jimbo - heat in the air does not equate to heat getting to the ice.

Earlier in the season these temperatures are very dangerous because of how they strip off snow cover.  Now, not so much so, as the snow is gone (and a bit early at that).

The heavy lifter for melt is still sunlight.  In so far as these temps reflect more sunlight, the worse it is for the ice.  Combined with sunlight, these temperatures can facilitate melt pond creation, but won't seriously impact the ice directly.  The heat content of the atmosphere is much too low. 

Once continental air passes over the pack, it cools very quickly.  The nature of this is why I'm never particularly excited if DMI 80N temperatures *don't* rise above normal; they are strongly buffered by ocean surface temperatures and heat uptake of via evaporation.  That tends to keep things within a degree or so of freezing.

On the other hand, precipitation in the form of rain over ice is much more dangerous, even if temperatures stay close to zero.  A good storm can drop rain that strips a couple of CM off of the top of the ice very easily, and expands melt ponding.
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Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2525 on: June 23, 2016, 02:34:01 AM »
Beaufort lower left, Laptev upper right.  Path of the storm between.

The current condition of this stretch of ice really does strike me as extraordinary.

Comments?

2012 and 2013 had similar stretches of weakened ice at same date.

edit:  something a little more extraordinary is that after the record smashing heat early in the year, current 925hp temps are getting quite close to record low for date.
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2526 on: June 23, 2016, 05:27:26 AM »
Meanwhile... tomorrow's forecast high for Barrow, where there's still ice, is 51F (but wow is there a lot of open water on the webcam, and a huge... melt pond? Near to the shore).

And in York Factory the high is forecast to be 72F... can't say it looks good for the Hudson ice either.

Tomorrows High in Chersky on the ESS is 71F... 

None of these locations is forecast to get significantly below freezing at any time in the next week (one day has a low of 31F at Barrow)

How much can the ice really take?  Even if it's sometimes cloudy?

The Hayes River runs right through there and the Nelson is really close. Both dump into the Hudson Bay. Warmed river water has an impact.
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slow wing

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2527 on: June 23, 2016, 07:39:32 AM »
The two satellites on EOSDIS, Aqua and Terra, are between them showing the storm structure with parallel cloud banks stretching almost from Canada to Russia with a band of visible ice between them, looking somewhat worn...


slow wing

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2528 on: June 23, 2016, 07:54:59 AM »
Trying to peek under the clouds to see where the ice is worn or not. Would this give a hint as to which ice is likely to survive the melt season? Or is it too early to determine that?

Rob Dekker

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2529 on: June 23, 2016, 08:37:38 AM »
I've posted a second post on Melting momentum this year.

Quote
Long story short: Even though 2016 has been breaking records all year so far, as things currently stand, it will take special weather conditions for it to break any records near the end of the melting season.

Agreed.

--IJIS extent has experienced one of its slowest June's on record, losing just 69% of the 10-year monthly average-to-date, and only about half of what 2012 did by this time of the month. To be sure, 2016 is still in the lead, but not by much; a few consecutive slow days could drop it back to 4th place.

Jim, I respect your opinion, but may I note that on "extent" 2016 has been running 500 k km^2 below even the next contender for a solid 2 months. And 1 million km^2 below 2012 for about a month.
That is a lot of sea area that has been absorbing heat for all that time, which is one variable by which "melting momentum" is build up.

Quote
--Sea ice area has already fallen back to third, and it needs at least a century drop today to stay in the top three. It took SIA 15 days to fall from 9 million km2 to 8 million km2, a longer period of time than any other year in the satellite record. Number of days it took 2012 to fall from 11M to 8M: 29. Number of days it took 2013: 33. Number of days it took 2016: 45.

According to Wipneus, "area" obtained a century drop (153.3 to be precise) today :
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.msg81022.html#msg81022

   Area: -153.3 (-367k vs 2015, -255k vs 2014, -640k vs 2013, -138k vs 2012)
 
But according to these numbers, 2016 is still clearly in the lead for "area".
Which data did you use to conclude that it has "fallen back to third" ?

Quote
In short: while there were abundant signs of possible "supermelt" status, 2016 has for the past two months been merely average, or even slightly below that. So if the remaining heart of the melt season--only another eight or nine weeks--doesn't see something spectacular, some here (including me) will be left scratching their heads...

Be assured. 2016 is running at first place in "extent", in "area" and in "volume".
The ice pack is weak, and even average weather will let this year end in the top 2 or 3 in September.
So I predict that you will not be disappointed : there will be plenty of "spectacular" events during this melting season.
« Last Edit: June 23, 2016, 08:54:01 AM by Rob Dekker »
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Laurent

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2530 on: June 23, 2016, 09:24:36 AM »
The blocks of ice are globally less than 10 km long. Will they resist the remaining two melting months ? ... I doubt it.
It is really from Laptev to Beaufort that the ice is broken...
http://go.nasa.gov/28S44PN
You can download on your hard disk and zoom the animation.
« Last Edit: June 23, 2016, 02:16:13 PM by Laurent »

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2531 on: June 23, 2016, 09:36:53 AM »
I think this is not really a sign of things happening now, but one that shows the ice was preconditioned to be weak.
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Laurent

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2532 on: June 23, 2016, 10:06:32 AM »
Yes, of course. We find ourselves with little pieces of ice, that didn't happened the last few days. I think it is some older pieces of ice that were enshrined with 1st year ice, when melt happen the first year ice melt.
« Last Edit: June 23, 2016, 03:15:17 PM by Laurent »

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2533 on: June 23, 2016, 10:29:29 AM »
Yes, of course. We found ourselves with little pieces of ice, that didn't happened the last few days. I think it is some older pieces of ice that were enshrined with 1st year ice, when melt happen the first year ice melt.

This is the crux of what I was suggesting up thread. When we first saw the type of 'Crackopalypse' event , late winter 2013, we had no idea as to whether it would prove beneficial to the basin ( by shedding heat from the Ocean late season ) or whether it just weakened ice? three years , and three events, later and we have floes that can 'fall apart' once their late formed 'glue' melts out.

In the years to come this will continue to fill the basin with 'faux floes' that give the impression ( esp. when snow covered?) of an old style major floe but , as some ice camps have found, these floes can disintegrate over a short period along these old fault lines.

One melt season that ice will meet with another 'perfect melt storm Synoptic', of high melt high export, and be lost far more efficiently than the old ,contiguous, floes?
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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2534 on: June 23, 2016, 01:44:03 PM »
I agree with Neven, a complete ice-free Arctic this year is completely unrealistic. So far, the average Arctic SIE decline have been about 13% per decade by September. Roughly speaking, per NSIDC the SIE have declined by approximatively 2,5 Mn km2 during the last 35 years or so. If that pace would to continue, 2050 would be a much more realistic year to have ice-free conditions in the Arctic basin.

Personally, I don't think we'll see the race to the bottom until next switch to negative PDO occurrs. Slushy and fractured ice should be the dominant mode for the next 10-15 years.

Best, LMV
Excuse me, but SIE is irrelevant. Ice melts by volume, not by extent. Every extra Joule of energy converts to certain extra _volume_ of ice melt. Not to certain extra _area_ of ice cover melt. You can have same SIE for both 5-meters thick ice, and 0.5-meters thick. Obviously you'll need ten times more energy to melt the former than the latter. But if you only look to extent, you'd have NO idea about that. So why exactly should we pay any attention to your "based on SIE, ice-free is some time around 2050"? We should not. It's simply wrong.

If you do not understand such a simple fact, then i doubt we should pay attention to any thoughts of yours about more complex matters, until you do your homework. If you do understand, then it means you lie to us here about what you're actually thinking, in which case the conclusion would be the same: your opinion is of no importance.

There difference is, if it's the latter, then we're unable to help. But if it is the former, then we may be able to.

Neven's own blog entry last October has the famous video, displaying annual minimum ASI volume for 1979...2015 period. If you'd pause it at 30 seconds mark, then you will see very clearly what's going on per-decade. It's very simple to see:
1980s = nearly 14M km^3 average annual minimum ASI volume;
1990s = nearly 12.5M km^3;
2000s = nearly 8M km^3;
2010s (so far) = nearly 5M km^3.

The latter number is expected to dip much down, because 2010s are not done yet, and the remaining 4 years, following this general multi-decadal trend, should be well below 5M km^3, thus pulling the average for 2010s decade down. To some 4M km^3 at very least - possibly much lower, even.

Even from this very basic statistic it is clear that 2020s are well expected to loose another ~4M km^3 of annual minimum volume, thus making it to 0M km^3 by ~2030. In reality, though, thin ice is unable to prevent storms and even simply somewhat strong winds to produce wave action, breaking thin ice apart into small pieces and mixing it with surface waters, which greatly accelerates melt (as we've seen by GAC 2012). And the thinner and weakier (structurally) ASI gets, the less intense wind becomes the "breaking point" in this mechanic. Which is why even 2030 is too optimistic an estimate.

Worse, there are other non-linear factors at play, as well. For example, during the peak insolation period, the further north you go within Arctic, the _more_ insolation you have per square meter. In the past, "far north" arctic sea ice was thick enough and cold enough to reflect most of that. Nowadays, it increasingly is not. The amount of extra energy entering the surface waters + ice system as a result of that, in the CAB, grows up non-linearly - and so does the amount of ice melt by that extra energy. There are many other factors, some positive feedbacks, some negative. Which is why you have Wadhams, Maslowski and some others predicting 1st ice-free year as soon as before 2020, and this is why you see some people talk about even this season's chances to end up ice-free (more specifically - less than 1M km^2 ASI minimum area). In this case, the area is used to quantify the "largely ice-free Arctic" event for the simple reason: it's _visible_ and can be presented to the public as such (i.e. "come on, just look on this satellite photo, there is almost no ice left!" way).

That all said, i wonder if you would be angry at me. If you would, then please consider this: i had few moments to write and desire to do so, but in my opinion, many others would simply not bother doing so. They would simply discount you as a worthy voice here, without letting you know in any way - because they would consider it a waste of time and forum space to write something like this post. So then who's doing better for you - i, or they?

Cheers.
« Last Edit: June 23, 2016, 02:02:12 PM by F.Tnioli »
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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2535 on: June 23, 2016, 02:25:15 PM »
...
Storms does not automatically do more damage towards the end of the season, in 2013 a barrage of powerfull 970 pHa storms coincided with a spectacular August stall in area, extent and volume loss. Events in late 2011 and 2012 suggests that the ice consentration need to be below 50% if there is going to be significant "flash melting" with accompanying SIA drops from storm and wind action, otherwise heat influx and ice compaction will have to be present to cause damage.
Your argument is only significant if you expect this year and future years to be more like 2013, and less like 2012, in terms of how often it is below 50% concentration. Same for heat influx - only relevant if you expect heat influx to decrease as years go by.

If you do expect that future will give more cases of higher concentration and lower heat influx, then i think you have no idea what's going on in the Arctic, in general. Please google for "Arctic amplification" in this case. May be it'll help. And in terms of this year, El-Nino thing makes it much more likely to have it like 2012, and not like 2013, in case of late-season GAC impact.

If you don't expect "more like 2013 this and future years", then your argument is largely moot and you knew it before making it. Not a pretty picture either.

Bottom line: sorry, can't agree any much.
« Last Edit: June 23, 2016, 02:31:00 PM by F.Tnioli »
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etienne

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2536 on: June 23, 2016, 02:44:08 PM »
Hello,

We are all learning, so please don't say thing's like "you don't know what's going on in the Artic".

Maybe you're right, I don't know, but a teacher in high school told us once that when somebody said something totally irrelevant, he use to say "interesting idea, but...". If you sa, "I really don't agree because ...", it would also be good. Sometimes a totally stupid idea can bring new perspective or help to clarify what's known and what are hypothesis,

Best regards,

Etienne

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2537 on: June 23, 2016, 03:41:36 PM »
Hello,

We are all learning, so please don't say thing's like "you don't know what's going on in the Artic".

Maybe you're right, I don't know, but a teacher in high school told us once that when somebody said something totally irrelevant, he use to say "interesting idea, but...". If you sa, "I really don't agree because ...", it would also be good. Sometimes a totally stupid idea can bring new perspective or help to clarify what's known and what are hypothesis,

Best regards,

Etienne
In this specific case, based on his earlier posts, i am quite sure Rubikscube is well aware about what's going on in Arctic. But it may be i'm somehow wrong about this - may be more than one person goes by the name, or may be he has bouts of amnesia (nothing shameful in that, some people do, and all), or something else. So i had to consider (if low) possibility that he does not, at the time, know about things i mentioned.

And i disagree with your teacher about it; nothing shameful in not knowing this or that. We all are born not knowing what's going on in the Arctic. And nobody knows every last bit and piece of what's going on in the Arctic. So what? Should we all make suicide? Or go into life-long depression? Come on. It's OK! :)

P.S. The shame is not in not knowing something, and thus there is no offense in pointing out to anyone that "i think you don't know this or that". Nada. There is even no shame in doing a honest mistake (but i still apologize if i do, it's right thing to do), and no shame if someone thinks you don't know this and that while you do know. The shame is only in having no desire and/or no ability to learn. Thus, if someone says to someone "you won't ever understand this even if you'd try, you idiot" - now THAT is a capital offense alright. Grave offense, if we talk scientist community.
« Last Edit: June 23, 2016, 03:49:31 PM by F.Tnioli »
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Flocke

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2538 on: June 23, 2016, 04:29:55 PM »
(emphasis added)
If you do not understand such a simple fact, then i doubt we should pay attention to any thoughts of yours about more complex matters, until you do your homework.

Others might wont to decide for themselves.

That all said, i wonder if you would be angry at me. If you would, then please consider this: i had few moments to write and desire to do so, but in my opinion, many others would simply not bother doing so. They would simply discount you as a worthy voice here, without letting you know in any way - because they would consider it a waste of time and forum space to write something like this post. So then who's doing better for you - i, or they?

Maybe those who discuss and don't drive people away - whether they are clearly right or not.

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2539 on: June 23, 2016, 04:50:19 PM »
Others might wont to decide for themselves.
...
I'm not deciding for anyone else except myself. But i know many will decide i was correct. Facts are facts - as you can see, phase change (melt in our case) is proportional to _mass_ of matter, which in turn is obviously proportional to volume and not just surface area (nor extent) of sea ice. Thus that "we" was not wrong. Even if that "we" is few, it's still more than just me.

...
Maybe those who discuss and don't drive people away - whether they are clearly right or not.
You contradict yourself here. Others "might want" to decide for themselves, you said. So how can i "drive" people away, then? They decide whether to leave or stay - for themselves, just as well. Not me. Even if somebody does not - i ain't escorting them out of this here forum at a gun point, you know? I couldn't, even if i'd want to try (and i don't). Plus, anyone is free to ignore anything i say, if they so desire. I respect their right and ability to express their opinion, - any opinion, no limits. Please do respect mine.

P.S. I assume you meant "want", and not "won't" in the former quote. Please correct me if i'm wrong here. Thank you.

P.P.S. Oh, and you know what - i'll tell you this: having someone (anyone!) coming into this topic and forum and _seriously_ writing about his expectation that Arctic won't ever be ice-free till ~2050 - can also "drive" people away, if to use your logic. Certain kind of people: those who are 1) new to this forum but 2) not new at all to multi-decadal ASI trends and know how phase change works in detail, yet 3) are hasty and not willing to look closer to other posts and topics. Some of them could possibly think: "naaah, another nest of people who don't even know that ASI melt dynamics are to be estimated by volume (and mass) of ASI, but not by extent" and leave without looking back. Note i didn't say a word about this to Vader, and i am still not saying it to him. I am saying this to _you_ to illustrate that your point is... discriminating. So, if you want to do a little blame towards someone for my lengthy and "impolite" reaction, - then may be check what caused it? May be _there_ is the source of this talk, not in me? May be terms i used so far are HUGELY toned down and "self-limiting" ones, in compare to terms which one honest ASI scientist would privately tell to another ASI scientist, given the initial statement of the latter being Vader's? Thanks!
« Last Edit: June 23, 2016, 05:26:12 PM by F.Tnioli »
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2540 on: June 23, 2016, 04:58:52 PM »
How's the volume looking anyway? Anyone got any charts to show where we are now on volume and comparisons maybe.
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

6roucho

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2541 on: June 23, 2016, 05:07:04 PM »
Very impressive display of beating your chest and throwing your feces at others there, FTnioli. I'm sure if Jane Goodall studied sea ice she'd find much to study here.

Ninebelowzero

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2542 on: June 23, 2016, 05:22:31 PM »
Whatever we might suppose if Summer extent and volume continue to fall at some point we shall find ourselves in uncharted waters in every respect.  8)

Flocke

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2543 on: June 23, 2016, 05:39:24 PM »
I'm not deciding for anyone else except myself.
You where speaking for an anonymous group.

You contradict yourself here.
Clearly not.

Quote
P.S. I assume you meant "want", and not "won't" in the former quote. Please correct me if i'm wrong here. Thank you.
This is way to loose for me.

Sorry for going off topic. Couldn't let this nonsense of contradicting myself stand uncorrected. Won't bother any more.

be cause

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2544 on: June 23, 2016, 05:54:48 PM »
I came here for the melting season .. has the ice melted and the air conditioner failed ?
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2545 on: June 23, 2016, 05:57:55 PM »
I came here for the melting season .. has the ice melted and the air conditioner failed ?
Yeah. Probably. Alright, guilty as charged, even if the spark was not mine. Again... I don't know, may be a moderator should ban me, at least for a while. Or the whole bunch. Anyhow, i promise not to post for 72 hours after this post is done. This should help for now.

Very impressive display of beating your chest and throwing your feces at others there, FTnioli. I'm sure if Jane Goodall studied sea ice she'd find much to study here.
You probably are not feeling much sympathy to chimpanzees, aren't you? We're cool bunch, you know. Smart, too! :P Oh, and it wasn't feces. It was love. Strange as it sounds, but i'm used i'm not understood much. Won't elaborate about love.

Back to the topic. As mentioned a page or two above, we'll get an idea what's going on with volume when next PIOMASS report will be out, and right now i am expecting this June to be way less than average in terms of volume loss during the month. In the same time, in absolute numbers, i think it won't be much above all-time low volume for the end of June, and so if the following parts of the melt season will proceed hot and hasty, then there are still some chances to beat 2012, volume-wise. To have enough volume loss to end up below 1M km^2 for minimum area, - this, i doubt very much now, given how June goes so far.

I'd be vastly grateful if anyone here could give us better (detailed) forecast and/or current volume data (other than DMI source of daily ASI volume).
« Last Edit: June 23, 2016, 06:07:52 PM by F.Tnioli »
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magnamentis

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2546 on: June 23, 2016, 06:04:27 PM »
@F.Tnioli

IMO you were spot on with each of your point.

@all
a bit of tolerance is probably a good idea at this point. scientist and experts should be tolerant towards those who are interested and know little or missed something crucial while those who feel offended by the tone, even though understandable at times, should show tolerance towards those who are pondering over a subject for years and hours each day, who try to convey the knowledge to the world, often to no avail, who at times just loose their temper when they find out that some folks don't read and/or follow the path of prejudiced bias.

tha lack of this kind of general tolerance is why many billion humans believe in the SAME god but shoot each other to death for the sake of power/influence, being opinionated and for money.

we deal with the same truth here but bickering goes about tiny details that don't matter in the long run as well as for the thrill and for self-profiling. same pattern as seen almost everywhere. the same facts, same goal but ultimately a fail due to lack of joint forces in favour seeking self-importance.

jdallen

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2547 on: June 23, 2016, 06:10:30 PM »
Everyone chill, please.   ;D

Reducing the number of value judgments applied to peoples logic, and focusing on presentation of evidence is suggested.

Now, to that end, taking a look at cci, there's a storm brewing up just west of the Kara, which is going to sweep through it and the Laptev over the next few days.  It will bring a huge plume of moisture, dropping it mostly as rain across those two expanses, before it gets picked up by the dipole we have and shunted into the CAB following a track similar to our most recent cyclone.

Combined with warm precipitation also coming in from the Pacific side through the Chukchi, some coming straight up the Fram to land north and northwest of Svalbard, and then still more across the CAA, I'm thinking our melt pond fraction is about to get a significant boost.
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2548 on: June 23, 2016, 06:13:00 PM »
Well, for what is worth, I think rubikscube's was one of the best and spot-on posts I have read lately. I suggest re-reading

Okono

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2549 on: June 23, 2016, 06:36:04 PM »
Combined with warm precipitation also coming in from the Pacific side through the Chukchi, some coming straight up the Fram to land north and northwest of Svalbard, and then still more across the CAA, I'm thinking our melt pond fraction is about to get a significant boost.

I agree with all your reasoning but I'm less certain about the impact.  The latest maps by Wipneus demonstrate extensive surface melting already occurring.  We're not far off from peak values recorded in other years, later in the year, though we do remain below them.

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.msg81120.html#msg81120

How much further can melt ponding increase before it leads to its own demise?  Is there -room- for additional melt ponds?  Is there a theoretical maximum to MASIE or whatever the acronym is now?
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