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JR-ice

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2550 on: June 23, 2016, 06:44:18 PM »
Okay, the last few posts regarding tome and substance have spurred me to make my first ever post here.

I appreciate everyone's opinions and ideas here.  I'm not a scientist, just really concerned about the planet and the arctic in particular.   Please, as been already said by others, let's not worry so much about who is right (or more right) and try to help each other understand the unprecedented events happening before our eyes. 

Thank you so much to each and every member of this forum who takes the time to post, explain, conjecture, track down and post data, and make clear what is going on.

I know so much more now about sea ice, storms, volume and extent...  :D

From a lurking librarian who loves this Earth

NeilT

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2551 on: June 23, 2016, 06:50:15 PM »
Just looking at the Barrow cam and it's clear the emergence of the sun from the clouds has done what weeks of temps above 32f and cloudy/rainy weather could not do.  Namely the ice there has a week to two weeks, tops, left.

It's also  useful to remember that there was a big push onshore so this was jumbled and ridged ice which his so spectacularly vanishing in the presence of the sun.

Had the clear weather remained, I'm sure this event would have been at least 3 weeks ago.

So whilst the storms and the heat transport from the south will have a heavy impact, especially in volume with bottom melting, the final coup de grace will be by the sun and the sun has been heavily masked this year in the CAB.

I'm willing to be surprised but I'm not really expecting it.
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Laurent

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2552 on: June 23, 2016, 06:53:27 PM »
Weather-Forecast for next week :

Laurent

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2553 on: June 23, 2016, 06:54:22 PM »
Cci-reanalyser for next week :

magnamentis

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2554 on: June 23, 2016, 07:50:27 PM »
Just looking at the Barrow cam and it's clear the emergence of the sun from the clouds has done

all true while one should always include wind direction and wind speed and the temps where that wind comes from into consideration. the biggest melt was during the last 48h and the wind came from SE with 35km/h, hence pushing the ice off-shore as well as giving it a hard time while it was already very dard ( where the sun factor chimes in) and preconditioned due to -2 to 4C temps over some time.

so this is a yes but i think that the biggest impact (50%+) came from the warm and strong southerlies.

A-Team

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2555 on: June 23, 2016, 08:10:40 PM »
Below I located Sentinel 1A radar and Modis Terra visible of the same date (June 16th) and rescaled them maximally to match (75% of the max for S1A being already too much for Modis). This fine image needs a click to view.

Note the floe in Modis has a blueish cast yet there are no evident melt ponds in S1A (which would show them as flat black if there was some salinity). According to 'S1 Foresight' at PolarView, this floe will be re-imaged within the week allowing a direct S1A to S1A comparison, changes being attributable to melt-related surface polarizability (dielectric). The floe can be seen moving aimlessly about so should still be within the S1A frame.

There is a related post #2132 at Home Brew AMSR2 as well; the 15-23 June 2016 animation is taken from there.

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.msg81157.html#msg81157

« Last Edit: June 23, 2016, 08:26:28 PM by A-Team »

epiphyte

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2556 on: June 23, 2016, 09:33:01 PM »

 According to 'S1 Foresight' at PolarView, this floe will be re-imaged within the week allowing a direct S1A to S1A comparison,


Speaking of which, does anyone know what's up with S1A? - it seems to have produced almost no imagery over the past week. There have been three one-sentence news updates confirming this, with no elaboration as to the cause. I do hope it's nothing serious.


Neven

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2557 on: June 23, 2016, 10:13:24 PM »
FYI: F.Tnioli is on a 1-month break. Enough is enough.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2558 on: June 23, 2016, 10:41:51 PM »
I would agree that commenters should not post comments that make it personal. I come here for a healthy discussion. I'll go somewhere else if I want to deal with personal arguments.

notjonathon

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2559 on: June 24, 2016, 01:15:20 AM »
Quote
FYI: F.Tnioli is on a 1-month break. Enough is enough.

Thank you,Neven.

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2560 on: June 24, 2016, 04:50:54 AM »
I would simply state that SIE is a relic metric from the early satellite days and that it is only a poor proxy for the actual condition of the Arctic.  The sooner that we stop concerning ourselves with it and pay more attention to PIOMAS monthly average volume changes the better!
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meddoc

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2561 on: June 24, 2016, 05:10:47 AM »
Looking at arctic.io I have to agree with the banned one.
A slushy Arctic is not gonna hold the jetstream in its place- so prepare for climate chaos & all of its consequences: war, famine, migrations and place it on the exponential curve

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2562 on: June 24, 2016, 05:40:47 AM »
I don't know what volume did today but SIE  took a 89724 km2 hit today after several days of steady drops. And, in regard to the chaos, you can add earthquakes to the list, as land heavy land ice melts. I won't go OT, but all that is part of a composite sign of the times.

P.S. A while back someone(maybe Neven) used the words melt momentum.  Well it might finally be turning.It could even have a snowball effect.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2016, 05:47:30 AM by Tigertown »
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icy voyeur

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2563 on: June 24, 2016, 06:08:24 AM »
I would simply state that SIE is a relic metric from the early satellite days and that it is only a poor proxy for the actual condition of the Arctic.  The sooner that we stop concerning ourselves with it and pay more attention to PIOMAS monthly average volume changes the better!

A poor proxy for the condition of the Arctic respective to weather or respective to climate?
Respective to weather, I'd think extent is still important. It documents an area that is strongly tied to melt temperatures. This impacts near term weather, doesn't it? And that weather in turn has effects on longer term seasonal effects.
If you're instead worried about long term climate change effects, well then daily measures are for the neurotic and impatient. That might be a class that reflects on those who visit this blog on a daily basis but some of us, perhaps, have the self-awareness to laugh at our compunctions on that front and not get too worked up about it in rants of short term passion, as cathartic as such might be at times.  $0.02

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2564 on: June 24, 2016, 06:39:20 AM »
Also, extent is pretty important when it comes to albedo. The earlier you lose that coverage, the sooner you lose albedo and up the insolation you get for open waters, that is as long as you are getting sunlight.
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Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2565 on: June 24, 2016, 07:02:10 AM »
The best measure for the impact of ice on the rest of the climate season is area.  This reflects albedo, and the ability of ice to damp temperature variations.  For all intents and purposes the ability of a 5 meter thick ice sheet to influence the rest of the climate system is exactly the same as a 50 cm thick ice sheet.  Extent can be more accurately measured than area.

It might be argued that volume is important for predicting future trends in area.  After all a 50cm thick sheet will melt quicker than a 5 meter sheet.  But extrapolations based on volume from prior to 2012 suggested we'd be reaching ice free around about now.  We won't know for sure until September, but I think it is more likely that we won't be ice free this year or anytime in the next few.
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Neven

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2566 on: June 24, 2016, 09:29:47 AM »
Extent can be more accurately measured than area.

For a while extent more accurately reports total ice cover because it ignores melt ponds. As soon as melt ponds drain/freeze over, area is more accurate. They're just two different ways of measuring, with data coming from the same satellite sensors.

Quote
But extrapolations based on volume from prior to 2012 suggested we'd be reaching ice free around about now.

That depends on what extrapolation you use (linear, exponential, Gompertz, etc).
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iceman

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2567 on: June 24, 2016, 12:10:56 PM »
Quote
FYI: F.Tnioli is on a 1-month break. Enough is enough.

Thank you,Neven.

A chilling-off period.

iceman

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2568 on: June 24, 2016, 12:18:51 PM »
... there's a storm brewing up just west of the Kara, which is going to sweep through it and the Laptev over the next few days.  It will bring a huge plume of moisture, dropping it mostly as rain across those two expanses...

That rain will also melt much of the remaining snow on the Taymyr Peninsula, where anomaly is already low.  The land/sea, snow/ice interaction appears to be especially strong in and around Kara this season.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2569 on: June 24, 2016, 01:36:49 PM »
Kind of quietly behind the storms, Chukchi ice is giving away and the weather wont help in the next few days.
(see AMSR2 thread Wipneus' map of melt extent... quite impressive since it is offseting the bouncing back of area in CAB)

oren

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2570 on: June 24, 2016, 01:41:57 PM »
Kind of quietly behind the storms, Chukchi ice is giving away and the weather wont help in the next few days.
(see AMSR2 thread Wipneus' map of melt extent... quite impressive since it is offseting the bouncing back of area in CAB)

Looking at the regional extent chart, Chukchi is the location where the recent stall was most completely felt. 2016 went from exactly following 2015 to being 3 weeks behind. If Chukchi gets back to the game, bye bye stall.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2571 on: June 24, 2016, 06:22:17 PM »
hi @all, just watch the video, especially the last 1-2 hours and you know what i and others tried to convey as one possibility for this melting season for larger stretches across the entire arctic and watch the air temps when it happened, mere 3-4C.

https://www.lookr.com/lookout/1198520951-Kimmirut#action-play-day

oren

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2572 on: June 24, 2016, 07:52:06 PM »
hi @all, just watch the video, especially the last 1-2 hours and you know what i and others tried to convey as one possibility for this melting season for larger stretches across the entire arctic and watch the air temps when it happened, mere 3-4C.

https://www.lookr.com/lookout/1198520951-Kimmirut#action-play-day

Poof!

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2573 on: June 24, 2016, 07:57:38 PM »
Kind of quietly behind the storms, Chukchi ice is giving away and the weather wont help in the next few days.
(see AMSR2 thread Wipneus' map of melt extent... quite impressive since it is offseting the bouncing back of area in CAB)

Looking at the regional extent chart, Chukchi is the location where the recent stall was most completely felt. 2016 went from exactly following 2015 to being 3 weeks behind. If Chukchi gets back to the game, bye bye stall.
And Beaufort too, at least in area. Judging from Modis images, it is recieving its share of sun already.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2016, 08:32:01 PM by seaicesailor »

Bruce Steele

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2574 on: June 24, 2016, 08:21:06 PM »
Surface waters in Kotzebue sound have warmed to ~ 52 F over the last couple days. Red dog mine dock , temperature at 3 meters below mean low water.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=RDDA2

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2575 on: June 24, 2016, 09:05:16 PM »
Operational 12z ECMWF run quite interesting as it depits more high pressure dominated weather in the Pacific sector in about a week or so. If it would come true, we might get a very interesting July....

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2576 on: June 24, 2016, 09:41:38 PM »

For a while extent more accurately reports total ice cover because it ignores melt ponds. As soon as melt ponds drain/freeze over, area is more accurate. They're just two different ways of measuring, with data coming from the same satellite sensors.

When melt ponds are not a problem area still has problems with cloud cover, and with not distinguishing between tightly packed floes with significant but small amount of water in between and continuous ice sheet.  While I would agree that area tends to be a better reflection of how much ice there is under such conditions, I do think that extent is more accurately measured.  The instrument errors for extent are lower, even though area is measuring something more useful, and closer to what we actually want to know.

Quote
But extrapolations based on volume from prior to 2012 suggested we'd be reaching ice free around about now.

That depends on what extrapolation you use (linear, exponential, Gompertz, etc).

Even Gompertz was showing nearly ice free in 2017.  The original Wadhams projection of 2016+/-3 was made based on a linear extrapolation, but restricted to recent years.  And polynomial or exponential (see comments) were pretty much exactly the same at about 2016.
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TerryM

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2577 on: June 24, 2016, 09:48:23 PM »
While I've never been to Red Dog Dock, I can recommend the Red Dog Saloon in Juneau, assuming the piano player's shack hasn't fallen into the sea. The cabin was situated on Mendenhall Glacier & was moving quite rapidly in the late 60's.
Seems as though the Alaskan Coastal Current hasn't yet given up all of it's heat as it swirls it's way toward Herschel Island. If any researchers are camping on the island will they again be taking ocean swims before this season is out?
It's 19c or 66F at Herschel, but I don't have the water temperature. Still too early in the year for a really warm spell, and it may not come this year if the CAB keeps sending MLI into the region for final melt out.
It's been a few years since Svalbard sold out of T shirts and polar researchers frollicing on sandy beaches sent pictures documenting their bohemian lifestyle. How many more years until everyone north of 80 packs swimwear before heading out?
Terry


Neven

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2578 on: June 24, 2016, 10:54:52 PM »
When melt ponds are not a problem area still has problems with cloud cover, and with not distinguishing between tightly packed floes with significant but small amount of water in between and continuous ice sheet.  While I would agree that area tends to be a better reflection of how much ice there is under such conditions, I do think that extent is more accurately measured.  The instrument errors for extent are lower, even though area is measuring something more useful, and closer to what we actually want to know.

I don't want to go on about this much more, but unless I've misunderstood, extent and area - if from the dataset - are exact twins except for the 15% threshold. Same instrument, same algorithms to interpret brightness temperature data, same land mask, etc. Extent may be a more accurate representation at certain times of the year, but that doesn't mean it's a more accurate measurement. Both area and extent derive from the same measurement, but are different interpretations.

Quote
Even Gompertz was showing nearly ice free in 2017.


I take it you mean this graph:



As you can see, volume goes below 2 thousand km3 around 2017. I don't know if there's a similar definition of ice-free for volume as there is for extent/area (1 million km2) that is generally accepted. I haven't ever heard it being 2 thousand km3, simply because if this volume would be spread out as 1 metre thick ice, extent would 2 million km2. That's not ice-free.

Most discussions involving ice-free from a volume perspective is simply 0 km3, and here are the suggested dates for that using different extrapolations:



If we assume that 1 thousand km3 constitutes ice-free, Gompertz suggests 2023.

Quote
The original Wadhams projection of 2016+/-3 was made based on a linear extrapolation, but restricted to recent years.

I'm assuming you mean Maslowski, and no, that wasn't based on linear extrapolation, but on model results.

Let's continue focussing on the 2016 melting season.
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2579 on: June 24, 2016, 11:46:30 PM »
When melt ponds are not a problem area still has problems with cloud cover, and with not distinguishing between tightly packed floes with significant but small amount of water in between and continuous ice sheet.  While I would agree that area tends to be a better reflection of how much ice there is under such conditions, I do think that extent is more accurately measured.  The instrument errors for extent are lower, even though area is measuring something more useful, and closer to what we actually want to know.

I don't want to go on about this much more, but unless I've misunderstood, extent and area - if from the dataset - are exact twins except for the 15% threshold. Same instrument, same algorithms to interpret brightness temperature data, same land mask, etc. Extent may be a more accurate representation at certain times of the year, but that doesn't mean it's a more accurate measurement. Both area and extent derive from the same measurement, but are different interpretations.


The algorithms are actually different. Extent has extra steps in it which reduce certain types of error. This means that "extent" is a more accurate measure of extent, than "area" is of area.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2580 on: June 25, 2016, 05:43:31 AM »
Whatever it counts for and even if you use Fourier series to calculate it, it dropped by almost 94k km2 today. The bigger drops are coming more often.
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EthanOConnor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2581 on: June 25, 2016, 09:41:50 AM »
I don't want to go on about this much more, but unless I've misunderstood, extent and area - if from the dataset - are exact twins except for the 15% threshold. Same instrument, same algorithms to interpret brightness temperature data, same land mask, etc. Extent may be a more accurate representation at certain times of the year, but that doesn't mean it's a more accurate measurement. Both area and extent derive from the same measurement, but are different interpretations.


The algorithms are actually different. Extent has extra steps in it which reduce certain types of error. This means that "extent" is a more accurate measure of extent, than "area" is of area.

But is it a more accurate measurement of a less relevant measure?

Relevance of course relative here, depending on your goals in using it - understanding albedo? Forecasting future extent/area? Tracking state relative to other years or to climate model trajectories? Saying one is superior to the other without being very precise about the application requirements is risky business.

oren

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2582 on: June 25, 2016, 10:17:00 AM »
Interesting discussion but kind of derailing the melting season discussion. The solution as usual is simple: open a new thread, discuss extent and area measurements. The forum will be better organized and posts can have more depth without guilt.

JayW

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2583 on: June 25, 2016, 11:59:43 AM »
60 hour loop oft the Beaufort.   So much going on, it's mesmerizing. 

Edit: also if you look close (upper right corner) in the last couple images beginning at 19z on the 24th, what appears to be two contrails show up northeast of Amundsen gulf, going over the Beaufort.  Must be a neat ride.

Imagery courtesy of the university of Alaska at fairbanks.
http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu/search?commit=Search&page=2&search%5Bend%5D=&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B5%5D=1&search%5Bsensors%5D%5B3%5D=1&search%5Bsensors%5D%5B4%5D=1&search%5Bstart%5D=&utf8=
« Last Edit: June 25, 2016, 12:07:22 PM by JayW »
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2584 on: June 25, 2016, 01:46:56 PM »
Quote
60 hour loop oft the Beaufort.   So much going on, it's mesmerizing. 

Beaufort is certainly an area of the Arctic to watch over the next 3 months.  In 2012....a big "fat tail" of ice extent was left over.  This year...I think it may be toast.
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jplotinus

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2585 on: June 25, 2016, 02:26:20 PM »
60 hour loop oft the Beaufort.   So much going on, it's mesmerizing. 

Edit: also if you look close (upper right corner) in the last couple images beginning at 19z on the 24th, what appears to be two contrails show up northeast of Amundsen gulf, going over the Beaufort.  Must be a neat ride.

Imagery courtesy of the university of Alaska at fairbanks.
http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu/search?commit=Search&page=2&search%5Bend%5D=&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B5%5D=1&search%5Bsensors%5D%5B3%5D=1&search%5Bsensors%5D%5B4%5D=1&search%5Bstart%5D=&utf8=

JayW

"Mesmerizing" indeed. Very informative. I would like to request that you post an isolated pic of the contrail frames; or perhaps, a suggestion on how those interested can do it themselves with the downloaded animation?
Thank you.

JayW

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2586 on: June 25, 2016, 02:56:03 PM »

JayW

"Mesmerizing" indeed. Very informative. I would like to request that you post an isolated pic of the contrail frames; or perhaps, a suggestion on how those interested can do it themselves with the downloaded animation?
Thank you.

Edit:  I added a close up of a tiny piece of ice, I think, that's moving at an unimaginable speed, anyone else see it?  Gotta look close

My pleasure,

There will be folks with far more aptitude and resources that could greatly improve on my method, as I'm always doing my posting "on the run" from my phone.   :-\ 


First I download VIIRS images from either the university of Alaska fairbanks site.http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu
Advantages are higher resolution and "landcover" bands

Or Colorado state university
 http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/npp_viirs_arctic.asp
Advantages are slightly wider field of view (more Siberian coast) and ability to preview an animation.

The reason I use VIIRS, is because it can get like 6-7 images of an area per day, one ~ 90 minutes from 9z-0z.

Then I use this site http://gifcreator.me  to make the gif

And this one http://ezgif.com to crop and change speeds

  My animations are to watch the weather systems and the interactions with the ice.  I make lots, only post a few. 

I know there are better ways to make better gifs, but this is the best I can do.  I believe there are ways of getting VIIRS imagery for anywhere, like CLASS http://www.class.ncdc.noaa.gov/saa/products/welcome;jsessionid=21B194A6A181E588C0C6592B3B6B5965 , and manipulating therm with something called pytroll http://www.pytroll.org/quickstart_viirs.html but it's beyond my abilities at this time. 


If anyone wants to chat more about it, feel free to PM.  And all my animations are free to use of course.  I'm never sure if people like them as much as I do.

Sorry for the lengthy post
« Last Edit: June 25, 2016, 03:01:20 PM by JayW »
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Ajpope85

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2587 on: June 25, 2016, 03:11:52 PM »
It looks like a lot of the smaller floes are zipping along in the bottom left of that gif.

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2588 on: June 25, 2016, 03:12:29 PM »
Could that be a ship, JayW? It seems too fast for ice but too slow for an aircraft.

JayW

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2589 on: June 25, 2016, 03:28:18 PM »
Could that be a ship, JayW? It seems too fast for ice but too slow for an aircraft.

I think VIIRS resolution is 750m but I'm not 100% sure.  So it would have to be a half mile long ship to show up...
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jplotinus

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2590 on: June 25, 2016, 04:04:38 PM »
There have been at least two noticeable apparent contrails recently, over Kimmirut in one instance and over Barrow on Thursday morning 23 June). Today, however, Barrow is quite foggy:

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2591 on: June 25, 2016, 05:35:09 PM »
Could that be a ship, JayW? It seems too fast for ice but too slow for an aircraft.

I think VIIRS resolution is 750m but I'm not 100% sure.  So it would have to be a half mile long ship to show up...
It would presumably have to fill half that, so a Nimitz class aircraft carrier or a tanker.

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2592 on: June 25, 2016, 07:02:33 PM »
Looks to me like we are catching some rays today.
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2593 on: June 25, 2016, 07:47:41 PM »
Canadian Ice Service reports that melt in the Eastern Arctic is weeks ahead of schedule: CBC news report.

As is typical with CBC reporting, there is no mention of climate change.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/eastern-arctic-ice-conditions-1.3647896

>>>>Most of the ice on Frobisher Bay should be melted out by early July, says a forecaster with the Canadian Ice Service, as this year's melt in the Eastern Arctic is weeks ahead of schedule.
"The ice on the Northern Baffin Bay opened up earlier in May, maybe four or five weeks earlier than normal," said Jason Ross, a ice forecaster with the Canadian Ice Service.
"By the first and second week of July most of the ice on Frobisher Bay should be melted out," he said.<<<<<<<



jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2594 on: June 25, 2016, 08:53:23 PM »
Extent can be more accurately measured than area.

For a while extent more accurately reports total ice cover because it ignores melt ponds. As soon as melt ponds drain/freeze over, area is more accurate. They're just two different ways of measuring, with data coming from the same satellite sensors.

Quote
But extrapolations based on volume from prior to 2012 suggested we'd be reaching ice free around about now.

That depends on what extrapolation you use (linear, exponential, Gompertz, etc).

Has anyone ever seen an extent or area graph with error bars?  If so can you provide an example?  In metallurgical analysis, the minimum detectable flaw in a piece of steel can be determined and the relative number of flaws can be reasonably estimated.  It seems that the measurement area of a solid floe vs. a completely fractured floe (such as we appear to have an the CAB now) would increase the measurement error potential by a very large degree.  So it would stand to reason that, as the melt season progresses that the potential measurement error estimation would also increase.

I would very much like to see a graph with relative potential error estimates, I am guessing that by peak ice-loss the error is over 50% of the measured extent.
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ktonine

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2595 on: June 25, 2016, 09:58:14 PM »
Has anyone ever seen an extent or area graph with error bars?  If so can you provide an example? 

The errors are generally explained in the scientific papers that describe the specific algorithm being used.  Each algorithm has unique uncertainties.

In summer those uncertainties can easily be 15%.

I suspect several of these papers are avilable in the Science category.  But here's a PhD dissertation that compares several of them.

Uncertainties of a near 90 GHz sea ice concentration
retrieval algorithm

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2596 on: June 26, 2016, 12:16:26 AM »
Errors are no problem, as long as they are made consistently, so we can do long-term analysis and compare years to each other.

But to go back on-topic: ECMWF keeps moving more and more towards a set-up that is usually conducive to melting, so I'm expecting 2016 to stay among the lowest for the next 10-14 days (and this will be the theme of the upcoming ASI update).

You can clearly see that high pressure over on the American-Pacific side of the Arctic is staying in place and then gradually making forays into the Arctic Ocean proper. This means that the heat will be turned on in the Beaufort again, and winds will cause more compaction. Of course, on the Atlantic, the situation has remained dire for any ice that gets pushed beyond a certain latitude (maybe the highest on record, another upcoming theme on the ASIB).

GFS has quite a bit of heat coming into the Arctic again (+1.5-1.9 °C anomaly), and snow cover has disappeared earlier than ever. So, despite the melting momentum story, records may not be quite out of reach yet.

Below is the ECMWF forecast for the coming 6 days:
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2597 on: June 26, 2016, 12:37:33 AM »
Errors are no problem, as long as they are made consistently,

What else?

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2598 on: June 26, 2016, 08:28:34 AM »
I am struck by how completely the ice has pulled away from the Siberian coast.
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2599 on: June 26, 2016, 08:31:28 AM »
ESS a bit further west.  This *was* fast ice a few days ago...
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