........most of us try to stick with the known science on melt ponds and the ice preserving effects of June storminess.
there are a few things to consider, sticking with previous data and melt patterns will lead to a huge error the year those pattern change, and old data become irrelevant.
ice preserving effects can change to ice destruction effects if the ice is thin and fractured as well as if the air sucked in from lower latitudes is a 20-30C instead of 10-20C like earlier.
those 2 difference ultimately will make the difference, not even saying it has to be this years but it's possible.
......we are watching the fine details but what's important is the changes that are taking place over years
..... Many of the details are apparently random.
IMO it's more reliable to see the bigger picture than to let one detail compete agains another, partly just as
a mention but sounding like "rebukes" or "opposition" depending on mood, personality and language skills.
80% of the time this year we have been close to or below previous lows, almost all records were broken and
it does not really matter whether the ultimate record will be broken as well ( not without special events this year)
i just remember that after each day of the curve flattening some record seekers started to (almost) complain
that the melting is not continuing at record levels, even when it was still lowest, just not lowest rate. at that time i mentioned the relation between current levels and the possible rate declining the lower we are/get. and some of us expected a cliff ahead which without knowing whether it continues, happens right now.
the more details we bring up, the bigger the chance to err in that point and the bigger the loss of the big overview which is the only thing that counts because it describes the direction we're heading at, independent on daily or weekly events and the day form like in sports. this is not a 1-2 hours, daily, weekly and not even a decadal or century game, the process as well as the consequences will last thousands and tens of thousand of years if not more.