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Feeltheburn

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3500 on: July 20, 2016, 09:54:54 AM »
FeelTheBurn, if you have a point, make it.
Otherwise, while I am a Bernie supporter, please <shut up>.

That's about as intemperate response as I've seen.  If you don't believe ice chunks can promote re-freezing then state that but please no insults.
« Last Edit: July 20, 2016, 12:27:19 PM by Neven »
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Paladiea

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3501 on: July 20, 2016, 10:09:55 AM »
Quantity is not quality. You'd be well served to remember that. Please, take the time to read through everything in the following link as a crash course in basic sea ice dynamics.

https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/index.html
« Last Edit: July 20, 2016, 10:15:11 AM by Paladiea »
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Rob Dekker

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3502 on: July 20, 2016, 10:29:09 AM »
FeelTheBurn, if you have a point, make it.
Otherwise, while I am a Bernie supporter, please STFU.

That's about as intemperate response as I've seen.  If you don't believe ice chunks can promote re-freezing then state that but please no insults.

FeelTheBurn, I wish you would state your true identity.
Your continued "skepticism" of observations in the Arctic is revealing that you are not at all a Bernie fan at all. If you were, you would not be blabbering on about "ice chunks can promote re-freezing" without giving a reference to a scientific publication that makes that statement.
« Last Edit: July 20, 2016, 10:39:52 AM by Rob Dekker »
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BenB

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3503 on: July 20, 2016, 10:43:01 AM »
It will be interesting to see what the high pressure does to the weak-looking ice in the northern Chukchi, ESS and Laptev:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recmnh241.gif



There is already lots of surface melt going on, and presumably quite a bit of bottom melt, so I think we'll see reasonably big losses on the Pacific/Siberian side over the next week.

Neven

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3504 on: July 20, 2016, 12:33:06 PM »
While I agree that Rob Dekker should try to remain civil (which is the best tactic anyway when dealing with a purported troll), I also agree that the point can be made in a more concise way, especially as it's relatively off-topic.

If Feeltheburn's point is that measurements are imprecise and we therefore know nothing, I suggest he goes make the point elsewhere.

As for a highly dispersed ice pack making a rapid refreeze possible (it's rapid anyway because melt was so colossal), maybe this also means that less heat is released to the atmosphere, especially if snow, and then the long-term, etc.

It's not so very interesting IMHO, and doesn't tell us much about the 2016 melting season right now.
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sofouuk

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3505 on: July 20, 2016, 12:48:31 PM »
rapid refreezes are definitely bad for the ice/improve the chances of a bigger melt the following year. no 'maybe' about it

Quantum

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3506 on: July 20, 2016, 01:34:18 PM »
It will be interesting to see what the high pressure does to the weak-looking ice in the northern Chukchi, ESS and Laptev:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recmnh241.gif



There is already lots of surface melt going on, and presumably quite a bit of bottom melt, so I think we'll see reasonably big losses on the Pacific/Siberian side over the next week.
I remember lurking in here last year and people were saying that HP is good in August because (and please forgive any poor understanding) heat is released from open water and solar isolation becomes too low to be a significant factor. Would someone care to comment about HP at this stage (I know we still have at that point several days to go before August arrives)?

Still even with a more ' mid summer' type understanding of beneficial and detrimental synoptics this is a comparatively weak and cold ridge and is a transient feature according to the ECM. To me it looks like the synoptics remain good, if not excellent for ice retention.

Quantum

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3507 on: July 20, 2016, 01:38:55 PM »
rapid refreezes are definitely bad for the ice/improve the chances of a bigger melt the following year. no 'maybe' about it
That makes sense, I would have thought a stormy October is optimal because it breaks up young ice and increases the overall mass of ice that can be created. Since ice is such a good insulator it thickens very quickly at first but then painfully slowly above about 1m.

BenB

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3508 on: July 20, 2016, 02:12:51 PM »

I remember lurking in here last year and people were saying that HP is good in August because (and please forgive any poor understanding) heat is released from open water and solar isolation becomes too low to be a significant factor. Would someone care to comment about HP at this stage (I know we still have at that point several days to go before August arrives)?

Still even with a more ' mid summer' type understanding of beneficial and detrimental synoptics this is a comparatively weak and cold ridge and is a transient feature according to the ECM. To me it looks like the synoptics remain good, if not excellent for ice retention.

It's probably too late in the season to do massive damage, but we're only a month after peak insolation, so my understanding is that it will do more harm than good to the ice. Others may disagree. It's true it's not a very big high, but looking at Modis, there certainly appears to be quite a lot of melting going on:

http://go.nasa.gov/2a8uFqF

Andreas T

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3509 on: July 20, 2016, 02:15:47 PM »
I have taken the liberty to start a "freezing season" thread to make a space for discussing feeltheburns questions and others in a place where information, which is what a good discussion should bring into view, can be found and read again later when the events we are considering here will be there to think though with the benefit of hindsight.

Neven

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3510 on: July 20, 2016, 02:52:38 PM »
High pressure is good for compacting ice, which means it's good for rapid sea ice extent rate. Especially now, as the ice pack has quite a bit of compaction potential.
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AmbiValent

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3511 on: July 20, 2016, 03:23:23 PM »
You mean, good for rapid sea ice extent *decline* rate.
Bright ice, how can you crack and fail? How can the ice that seemed so mighty suddenly seem so frail?

Neven

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3512 on: July 20, 2016, 04:03:48 PM »
Yes, thank you.  :)
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3513 on: July 20, 2016, 05:47:02 PM »
The results of yesterday's Worldview experiment.

Can you spot the missing clouds?

If so QED?
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Nick_Naylor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3514 on: July 20, 2016, 05:59:52 PM »
QED? Really?

I decided to emulate your scientific method. Hypothesis: the coin in my pocket is a two-headed nickel. Experiment: Toss the coin. Result: Heads. Conclusion: I have a two headed nickel
QED.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3515 on: July 20, 2016, 07:27:09 PM »
No, it's not a 2 headed nickel or circular reasoning if you compare images. The clouds on the left side, as we view it on screen, of yesterday's image are gone today.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3516 on: July 20, 2016, 07:36:58 PM »
I decided to emulate your scientific method.

You failed. See FishOutofWater's explanation.

Actually both images are nominally from July 19th. Did you click my links? Have you by any chance been following the "Big Block Debate"?
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

icy voyeur

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3517 on: July 20, 2016, 07:58:30 PM »
I see your point about what extent may mean for the melting season, but what about the freezing season?  What does a higher extent of more broken up and widely dispersed ice portend for the freezing season?  As a chemist we know that crystals form more rapidly when there are already seed crystals present.  Supercooled water can remain liquid well below freezing until it is exposed to a tiny ice crystal.  And then bam!! (to quote or paraphrase Frivolous), ice will immediately form throughout the entirety of the water. 
No, that's not how it works (that's not how any of this works). That's taking some very little poorly comprehended laboratory science and misapplying it to the arctic.
Some hypothetically vast supercooled expanse of the arctic awaiting a seed crystal is utter nonsense. But if  you wanted to make it happen, you'd have to first turn off the wind and ocean currents and of course snow. Not that it would be sufficient, just necessary.
And please, don't insult chemists by suggesting that anyone who studied chemistry would propose any such nonsense. 

Hubert

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3518 on: July 21, 2016, 12:24:59 AM »

Cool August. I bet 4.9 million km2 in September.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/glbT2me1Mon.html
The following months, very cold in the Arctic.  Conclusions? What he would say Peter Wadhams?

Csnavywx

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3519 on: July 21, 2016, 12:35:06 AM »

Cool August. I bet 4.9 million km2 in September.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/glbT2me1Mon.html
The following months, very cold in the Arctic.  Conclusions? What he would say Peter Wadhams?

The cold arctic temps have been there for the past few monthly runs and are spurious. It's an initialization problem.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3520 on: July 21, 2016, 12:36:53 AM »
He'd surely agree there is more red than blue in that map.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3521 on: July 21, 2016, 12:41:07 AM »
Anyone more seasoned caring to comment on the "tri-pole" the Euro maps show for next days?
I daresay the ESS and Chukchi are going to get big loses in all metrics, predictable I know. Beaufort too.


Neven

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3522 on: July 21, 2016, 01:14:49 AM »
Seaicesailor, I have this in the latest ASI Update:

Quote
There will be clear skies for another day or two over the East Siberian and Laptev Seas where the supposedly thicker ice is lingering longer than we've become accustomed in the past decade. After that high pressure gets squeezed by low pressure on both sides, not becoming intense and dominant enough to increase compaction and Fram export.



2016 ASI update: breaking point
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Nick_Naylor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3523 on: July 21, 2016, 01:43:30 AM »
No, it's not a 2 headed nickel or circular reasoning if you compare images. The clouds on the left side, as we view it on screen, of yesterday's image are gone today.

Which proves what, exactly?

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3524 on: July 21, 2016, 02:16:48 AM »
Nick: Worldview images change substantially over a day as new pie slices are spliced into the image. That's how it is for what it's worth. Clouds come and go over the day. Sometimes the clearest images of an area are up for only a few hours.


FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3525 on: July 21, 2016, 02:26:15 AM »
Hubert: I have been following the CFSv2 model for over a year and have concluded that it is failing to handle ocean mixing in many areas including the tropical Atlantic, the Antarctic and the Arctic. It's a failed model badly in need of repair.

The fix for the cold pool it was producing in the Tropical Atlantic was to force it to return to climatology. That fix made it fail to warm the tropical and subtropical north Atlantic to the record levels that have been reached this summer.

That warm water around Antarctica in the model does not exist in reality. Winds and currents around Antarctica have spun up keeping out the warm water from the El Niño. Unfortunately, the CFSv2 model can't handle the spin up of the winds around Antarctica caused by global warming.

Guess where the heat that didn't go southwards towards Antarctica went?

Clue: north.

Nick_Naylor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3526 on: July 21, 2016, 02:58:57 AM »
Nick: Worldview images change substantially over a day as new pie slices are spliced into the image. That's how it is for what it's worth. Clouds come and go over the day. Sometimes the clearest images of an area are up for only a few hours.

The claim was that this image proved that clouds are being systematically removed. A single image is pretty meager "proof".

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3527 on: July 21, 2016, 05:25:54 AM »
Well,gentlemen and ladies, looks like we are over the dispersion phase and back to melting, post-storm.Drop of 110,000 km2+

epiphyte

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3528 on: July 21, 2016, 05:55:54 AM »
Not usually one to make predictions - but IMO much of Laptev is about to go poof.

epiphyte

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3529 on: July 21, 2016, 06:11:47 AM »
Nick: Worldview images change substantially over a day as new pie slices are spliced into the image. That's how it is for what it's worth. Clouds come and go over the day. Sometimes the clearest images of an area are up for only a few hours.

[PSA] For those that don't know, on Worldview you can see different views of the same area, from different products, at different times within the same day, by selecting different base layers. To do this click on the chevron next to the the word "layers" immediately beneath the worldview logo at the top left of the screen. You can select multiple layers (highlighted in white when you click on them) - but only the uppermost highlighted layer will be visible on the screen. [/PSA]



Rob Dekker

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3530 on: July 21, 2016, 07:16:58 AM »
While I agree that Rob Dekker should try to remain civil (which is the best tactic anyway when dealing with a purported troll)...

You are right and I'm sorry. Will not happen again.
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Rob Dekker

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3531 on: July 21, 2016, 08:01:25 AM »
The results of yesterday's Worldview experiment.

Can you spot the missing clouds?

If so QED?

Great work, Jim.
Here are the two images from WorldView to compare :
This one from your post yesterday (middle of July 19) :
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=1493.0;attach=33037;image
And now this one after July 19 is over :
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=1493.0;attach=33102;image

Clearly the final image on WorldView of the NP area for July 19 has fewer clouds than the image at the start of the day.

But I'm not sure that is QED.
For example, for July 16, WorldView's final selection of the area where Big Block hangs out is heavily clouded. I traced that back using the GINA feeder and found that WorldView selected that LAST image of the day for that area.

So maybe WorldView selected the last image of the day in your image as well ?

I tried to find out which satellite took the swaths on your image that showed less clouds, by looking at the tracks of these source satellites in WorldView :



Needless to say that identifying a particular track with the final WorldView image is anything but trivial. It could be that WorldView filters for the most cloud-free image for any swath, but it also may be that they simply choose the latest picture available for the day.

So not yet QED just yet, but this is for sure a very cool experiment.
If only WorldView had a way of showing which picture from which satellite they insert at each swath of their final 'daily' presentation...
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Rob Dekker

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3532 on: July 21, 2016, 08:33:37 AM »
Ah! I found something, Jim :

I noticed that the link for WorldView that you gave yesterday displays images from "Aqua".
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_BandsM11-I2-I1(hidden),VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_BandsM3-I3-M11(hidden),VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,MODIS_Aqua_Brightness_Temp_Band31_Day(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_Brightness_Temp_Band31_Night(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines,Graticule&t=2016-07-19&v=-2415869.185845027,-1169691.352089167,2548482.814154973,1119972.647910833

Aqua makes two passes over the same area (one ascending, one descending) per day.

If you de-select "Aqua" in your WorldView link, you get to "Terra" which shows a different image of the entire NP area, and one with a bit more clouds.

It is not so easy to determine which of the two "Aqua" pictures, nor which of the two "Terra" pictures WorldView choose for their "daily" presentation (if they choose the least cloudy form or the latest image), especially for the NP area, where all the tracks come together.

But at least it reduces the choice per satellite tracks per image to only TWO per day, instead of that collidoscope of tracks I presented in my previous post.
« Last Edit: July 21, 2016, 08:45:45 AM by Rob Dekker »
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slow wing

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3533 on: July 21, 2016, 11:59:52 AM »
Seaicesailor, I have this in the latest ASI Update:

Quote
There will be clear skies for another day or two over the East Siberian and Laptev Seas where the supposedly thicker ice is lingering longer than we've become accustomed in the past decade. After that high pressure gets squeezed by low pressure on both sides, not becoming intense and dominant enough to increase compaction and Fram export.


2016 ASI update: breaking point
Thanks for another helpful update, Neven. Yep, this might be the breaking point for this season. The ice continues to get pushed around & is forecast to do so for the next several days as well, where a persistent low pressure system in the Laptev should cause some dispersion and might just break up some of that stubborn ice.

I think compaction during the melt season generally preserves the ice and, conversely, dispersion makes it vulnerable. It is only because we pay so much attention to the extent parameter that we might think otherwise - compaction/dispersion causes it to drop/rise temporarily. However, the same amount of ice spread over a larger area, and with more gaps in the interior, has a chance to collect more heat.

Given the forecast for continuing winds, I expect the rest of the melt season to be very interesting and still think this season is likely to beat some or all of 2012's record lows.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3534 on: July 21, 2016, 12:04:02 PM »
Quote
There will be clear skies for another day or two over the East Siberian and Laptev Seas where the supposedly thicker ice is lingering longer than we've become accustomed in the past decade. After that high pressure gets squeezed by low pressure on both sides, not becoming intense and dominant enough to increase compaction ...
Thanks. Adding to slow_wing comment, the new forecasts from your page,
https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/forecasts2
show the same but with a slight displacement of the high toward Beaufort and the low toward Kara. Probably not important, but look at the ice today... compaction in the whole broken Pacific side and more dispersion out of the Laptev sea, which seem won't have much real melt this year, the ice melting elsewhere.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3535 on: July 21, 2016, 12:33:22 PM »
The claim was that this image proved that clouds are being systematically removed.

That so called "claim" came with a question mark attached. I was however "claiming" that the images of the "Big Block" area displayed on Worldview changed during the course of July 16th.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Nick_Naylor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3536 on: July 21, 2016, 01:18:21 PM »
Your original "QED?" claim came with a question mark, but I was surprised by the response to my assertion that you had not met the burden of proof. Surely you never really thought you had proven anything?

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3537 on: July 21, 2016, 02:19:30 PM »
The current DMI 80ºN suggests high latitude cooling of late - not good for supporting the continuation of the unprecedented early CAB ice loss.

Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

pauldry600

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3538 on: July 21, 2016, 02:24:10 PM »
Still think ice will settle around 4.3 million but its in an awful state so could easily just compact into bigger lumps. Looking back over historical data the obvious trend is down so even if this year stalls the CAB is certainly as weak as its ever been

AmbiValent

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3539 on: July 21, 2016, 02:35:21 PM »
The current DMI 80ºN suggests high latitude cooling of late - not good for supporting the continuation of the unprecedented early CAB ice loss.

The temperature will also drop when energy goes into melting ice... which it currently appears to do.
Bright ice, how can you crack and fail? How can the ice that seemed so mighty suddenly seem so frail?

Buddy

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3540 on: July 21, 2016, 02:53:04 PM »
Quote
Still think ice will settle around 4.3 million but its in an awful state so could easily just compact into bigger lumps. Looking back over historical data the obvious trend is down so even if this year stalls the CAB is certainly as weak as its ever been

A LOT of ice ready to go poof.  The ice is very susceptible.....and all it needs is a little push.  The more pressing matter is what happens 5 years from now.  Ice will likely be retreating earlier and earlier and retreating to zero (or close to) WITHIN that time frame.

Compared to 2012.....the ice is MUCH more susceptible:  Broken up into quadrants this year instead of two larger masses at this time of year like it was in 2012.

The 2nd and 3rd graphics on this page show an ice sheet that now looks to be under the "divide and conquer" banner in 2016 (4 sections) rather than the two larger pieces back in 2012.

http://climatechangegraphs.blogspot.com/2012/08/arctic-antarctic-charts-volume-extent.html

Not good.....   :'(

 

FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

AmbiValent

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3541 on: July 21, 2016, 03:03:23 PM »
Buddy, you don't need to convince *us* that it will happen. But *when* it will happen depends on whether we're going to get rather warm or rather cold years in the near future. (It will regress to the trend eventually, but not necessarily soon)
Bright ice, how can you crack and fail? How can the ice that seemed so mighty suddenly seem so frail?

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3542 on: July 21, 2016, 03:10:43 PM »
The current DMI 80ºN suggests high latitude cooling of late - not good for supporting the continuation of the unprecedented early CAB ice loss.

The temperature will also drop when energy goes into melting ice... which it currently appears to do.
I was wondering if this might be the case.  If 'all the temperature decrease' is causing 'all the CAB ice loss' (extreme generalization, yes, but this is only a conjectural model), then there is only so much more energy in the air to cause more ice loss (without more energy input).  If the skies were sunny, that energy source would be obvious.
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Quantum

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3543 on: July 21, 2016, 05:50:17 PM »
The current DMI 80ºN suggests high latitude cooling of late - not good for supporting the continuation of the unprecedented early CAB ice loss.

The temperature will also drop when energy goes into melting ice... which it currently appears to do.
I was wondering if this might be the case.  If 'all the temperature decrease' is causing 'all the CAB ice loss' (extreme generalization, yes, but this is only a conjectural model), then there is only so much more energy in the air to cause more ice loss (without more energy input).  If the skies were sunny, that energy source would be obvious.
Personally I wouldn't read too much into DMI 2m temp charts at this time of year. 925hpa temperatures are far more useful

Nick_Naylor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3544 on: July 21, 2016, 05:53:06 PM »
If the skies were sunny, that energy source would be obvious.

Glancing at Worldview images, we are getting pretty good looks at the ice (such as it is) lately.
The Sun must be getting similar looks . . .

Andreas T

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3545 on: July 21, 2016, 06:16:01 PM »
It is obviously just one place but have a look at the Healy aloft cam images for a groundlevel view. The camera adjusting to glare from the sun makes it look darker than it is at times but it is noticeable how much cloud and fog there is
http://icefloe.net/Aloftcon_Photos/index.php?album=2016

jdallen

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3546 on: July 21, 2016, 06:17:58 PM »
The current DMI 80ºN suggests high latitude cooling of late - not good for supporting the continuation of the unprecedented early CAB ice loss.
High latitude cooling could also be a sign of more open, -1.8C water, rather than a reduction in heat transfer.

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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3547 on: July 21, 2016, 06:55:53 PM »
It is obviously just one place but have a look at the Healy aloft cam images for a groundlevel view. The camera adjusting to glare from the sun makes it look darker than it is at times but it is noticeable how much cloud and fog there is
http://icefloe.net/Aloftcon_Photos/index.php?album=2016

The floes of the last pictures look thinner than a few days ago for sure, probably FYI with a thin snow layer? The ice also looks fragmented at a scale (tens to hundreds of meters) well under resolution of satellites.

I have circled the current approximate location of the ship according to the stamp in the picture over today's worldview terra modis (7-2-1) (don't ask me the hour update or swath, irrelevant, trust me it is today). I haved zoomed in and out for context.
I was surprised how deep toward the CAB the ship already is. This ice has big chances of complete melt out given its fragmentation and the weather for the next week. The whole August is still ahead.

jdallen

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3548 on: July 21, 2016, 07:22:57 PM »
Thoughts in response to seaicesailor, Andreas T and others - The ice is in very bad shape, no question. The general behavior still reminds me of 2013, except that this season, we've seen hotter weather, better sun, and will pass 2013 by a significant margin.  Even so,  I don't think we are still aimed for a new low, or even a new 2nd low. 

Unless we see some serious weather activity stirring things up in August, we are probably headed to numbers around or about 2015s.

I'm base my thinking on the fact we are rapidly approaching the point at which high-latitude insolation will cease to be a factor in melt above 80N.  Without that, declines in area and extent rely on bottom melt, which even with the extra heat retained by the anemic refreeze last winter, I do not think will be severe enough to seriously impact the CAB.  It may not be enough to seriously reduce the larger expanses of mostly intact ice in either the Laptev or ESS either.  They will get more rotten, and may fragment, but at the end of the season, I think it highly probable - better than 50% - enough will remain to keep us at or above 2007.

I think the story this year will be that the ice was saved by a lack of dipoles and Fram export.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #3549 on: July 21, 2016, 07:47:13 PM »
The current DMI 80ºN suggests high latitude cooling of late - not good for supporting the continuation of the unprecedented early CAB ice loss.
High latitude cooling could also be a sign of more open, -1.8C water, rather than a reduction in heat transfer.
Ahh, thanks jdallen.  I basically thought there could be more than one reasonable explanation when I first wrote, so didn't then mention the previous idea that had crossed my mind.  In reality, of course, there will be multiple influences for the reported temperature drop (yes, Quantum, if it means much in the first place) and overlapping influences for the reported SIA loss.  Thanks for y'all's sharing.  (I've lived in the U.S.A's South too long, but in too many other places to just say "the South".)
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