Thoughts in response to seaicesailor, Andreas T and others - The ice is in very bad shape, no question. The general behavior still reminds me of 2013, except that this season, we've seen hotter weather, better sun, and will pass 2013 by a significant margin. Even so, I don't think we are still aimed for a new low, or even a new 2nd low.
Unless we see some serious weather activity stirring things up in August, we are probably headed to numbers around or about 2015s.
I'm base my thinking on the fact we are rapidly approaching the point at which high-latitude insolation will cease to be a factor in melt above 80N. Without that, declines in area and extent rely on bottom melt, which even with the extra heat retained by the anemic refreeze last winter, I do not think will be severe enough to seriously impact the CAB. It may not be enough to seriously reduce the larger expanses of mostly intact ice in either the Laptev or ESS either. They will get more rotten, and may fragment, but at the end of the season, I think it highly probable - better than 50% - enough will remain to keep us at or above 2007.
I think the story this year will be that the ice was saved by a lack of dipoles and Fram export.