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RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4000 on: August 15, 2016, 01:30:34 AM »
I didn't mean to play a game or anything. I just assumed if I said it was from Tony Heller it would a priori be dismissed without explanation.
And how on Earth did you end up at that hell hole, and not leave after reading the 'articles' and comments for 1 minute or less? WUWT is bad, but Heller/Goddard is the worst of the worst. He truly is a pathological liar who will do anything to make a buck or get attention.
I'm guessing that perhaps the trap of thinking that both deniers and scientists deserve "equal time" which was quite a popular notion until recently has stuck around for some. I'll let FTB explain anything more though.

Yes, and creationism should be taught along with evolution?

Once there is a scientific consensus on a model, then, of course, you have to be believer to support a different theory. The believer will find any thin shred of evidence to support their theory, not analyse the data objectively, and, of course, join the Republican party.

slow wing

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4001 on: August 15, 2016, 01:34:23 AM »
Nullschool is now showing wind speeds in excess of 70 km/h so I would say the storm has arrived.

Ajpope85

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4002 on: August 15, 2016, 01:53:34 AM »
Nullschool is now showing wind speeds in excess of 70 km/h so I would say the storm has arrived.

Are those sustained winds?

slow wing

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4003 on: August 15, 2016, 02:09:51 AM »
Yes, that is my understanding. Localised to be sure - and I did show the maximum I could find in the Arctic Basin - but the average wind speed at that place.

The wind is well into the 50's and even 60's in larger regions.
« Last Edit: August 15, 2016, 02:19:15 AM by slow wing »

pearscot

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4004 on: August 15, 2016, 02:47:11 AM »
I wonder what the implications of this late season storm will be?  The water all around the arctic is exceptionally warm (relatively) bordering the arctic, and if the storm causes a mass amount of dispersion I could see some large extent drops.  The effect would be exacerbated if a high pressure system followed and left clear skies.  Either way, this season was very hard for me to predict. I thought the melt would be more given how low it was at the start.  That said, it always appears as though the overall thickness continues to get lower.
pls!

NeilT

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4005 on: August 15, 2016, 02:56:37 AM »
And how on Earth did you end up at that hell hole, and not leave after reading the 'articles' and comments for 1 minute or less? WUWT is bad, but Heller/Goddard is the worst of the worst. He truly is a pathological liar who will do anything to make a buck or get attention.

I guess there are people who were not around when Watts threw him out WUWT over the Triple state of water at 273.16 K debacle where Watts himself had to step in, clarify the science and block Goddard out of the thread.  It was only shortly afterwards that Goddard was booted from the site.

Needless to say I've never visited that particular brand of inept denialism, so I can't validate what you say Neven but I'll very much take it on trust... :P :P

We're all a bit oversensitive about that idiot and I guess our reactions to anyone who even appears to give them any credit are correspondingly firm.

We all get to make a fool of ourselves once or twice right??   :)  But three times is, as they say, enemy action.

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Reggie

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4006 on: August 15, 2016, 03:19:17 AM »
@nevin
Peter Sinclair from Climate Crocks will be sending Saul from Montreal a tweet that make you laugh...and make wee willard watts sad. :)

Rob Dekker

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4007 on: August 15, 2016, 06:47:54 AM »
Plot the same graph from each source if you want to show differences, not one thing from DMI and something different from PIOMAS.

I'll leave that as an exercise for the interested reader. FTB for example?

Jim, thank you for your presentation of the US Navy HYCOM/CICE implementation against the DMI HYCOM/CICE presentation. It seems to me that in this particular case (2016 versus 2012) the US Navy HYCOM/CICE model is consistent with PIOMAS and Cryosat 2 observations, and DMI is NOT.

For example, as early as June 23, DMI still showed 3 - 4 meter ice in the Pacific section of the CAB :


None of the other ice volume product (US Navy HYCOM/CICE nor PIOMAS nor Cryosat 2) show that thick ice in that area.
 
And may I add that Richard Rathbone provides only unfounded criticism of your work, and fails to provide ANY evidence in this comparison.
« Last Edit: August 15, 2016, 07:12:19 AM by Rob Dekker »
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Bruce Steele

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4008 on: August 15, 2016, 08:27:26 AM »
Rob, I noticed your comment over on the ASIB re. no ITP buoy's  still working this year. ITP 93 is still sending up to date data although it looked kinda funny a couple days ago. I think it is giving good info and it may be our only chance to see whether the cyclone upwells some deeper warmer and higher saline waters like we saw in the GAC.
 Sorry if I am off topic.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4009 on: August 15, 2016, 11:31:59 AM »
Pitty we can't get swell information for the area under the grey mask.

I suppose the modellers didn't anticipate significant wave heights that far north? The cyclone is now down to 974 hPa, and the current (modelled!) waves are not so very different from the forecast 2 days ago:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/08/the-great-arctic-cyclone-of-2016/#Aug-15
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Neven

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4010 on: August 15, 2016, 12:28:07 PM »
Tis flashing to and fro:
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slow wing

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4011 on: August 15, 2016, 01:02:55 PM »

georged

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4012 on: August 15, 2016, 01:26:36 PM »
Are 65km/h winds exceptional? They're certainly fast, and sustained over a long period and over such a large area they're a real challenge to the integrity of the ice.

Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4013 on: August 15, 2016, 02:07:08 PM »
What ice? This is a completely fractured surface that behaves like a semi-liquid. To me this looks like a big smoothie-mixer (with refreshing, crushed ice already added :P).
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4014 on: August 15, 2016, 02:33:26 PM »
The Canadian 0600Z synopsis says 971 hPa.

The view from Terra.

P.S Sorry - I initially grabbed an image of the wrong cyclone from my hard drive  :-[
« Last Edit: August 15, 2016, 03:14:11 PM by Jim Hunt »
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slow wing

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4015 on: August 15, 2016, 02:38:14 PM »
Georged, yes, based on my admittedly limited experience watching the wind maps I would say 65 kph ~18 m/s is unusually strong for deep inside the Arctic Basin.

  The circle where the wind is at 65 kph is at the right edge of what Wipneus calls the Siberian Bite (or similar). It's the size of the wind field as well as its strength that I would expect to wreak a fair amount of carnage on the ice.

Speaking of carnage - though speculative and presumably unlikely to verify - GFS is now predicting the storm to re-intensify in about 8 days time down to a minimum sea level pressure of ... wait for it... 959 hPa!  :o

(ECMWF still has the pressure in the 980s at that time - making it seem even more unlikely.)
« Last Edit: August 15, 2016, 02:52:43 PM by slow wing »

be cause

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4016 on: August 15, 2016, 03:09:18 PM »
just came to report the low that GFShas in the outlook . I am not so sure about it being unlikely . For the first time in months warm moist air is being dragged from the Atlantic into the Arctic and will be mixing with unusually cold air over open water . If not this exact low then expect something like it soon deepening explosively and making our current low look like a baby .

 The outlook brings the Atlantic to life as well .. the hurricane season .. potential for dramatic times ahead .
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
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jdallen

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4017 on: August 15, 2016, 04:46:03 PM »
Pitty we can't get swell information for the area under the grey mask.

I suppose the modellers didn't anticipate significant wave heights that far north? The cyclone is now down to 974 hPa, and the current (modelled!) waves are not so very different from the forecast 2 days ago:
It may be worthwhile to note the east edge of the most intense area of swell corresponds pretty closely with the edge of the pack.
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friedmators

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4018 on: August 15, 2016, 04:46:59 PM »
CMC keeps the low sub 980 for at least the next ten days.  How do the verification scores line up for this model vs the Euro/GFS?

Juan C. García

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4019 on: August 15, 2016, 05:18:50 PM »
It is interesting the number of cyclones that we have in the North Hemisphere. In this Nullschool view, I see 5 at least (even that maybe all don't have the wind speed to be cataloged as cyclones).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4020 on: August 15, 2016, 05:43:19 PM »
For the record ... :-)
Out of the 50 predictions of the ECMWF ensemble, assuming a normal distribution os MSLPs , a 68% "agree" that in 8 days there will be MSLP between 988 hpa (nice low) and 1012 hpa approximately (nice high), at the location where GFS predicts 959 hpa. Out of the rest, a 5% (2 or 3) predict either high 1030 hpa or higher, or low 966 hpa or below.
Surely the distribution is not normal but take the numbers as a good approximation.
Something I note is that uncertainties in the Arctic latitudes explode at 120h and beyond typically, while at mid latitudes stay relatively low for a week (reason why one can half trust the 7-day prediction in Europe but not at the Pole).
For my next vacation I am going to consult the ensemble predictions of ECMWF. :)
« Last Edit: August 15, 2016, 06:06:14 PM by seaicesailor »

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4021 on: August 15, 2016, 09:18:56 PM »
Latest 12z operational ECMWF run shows the evolution of another small and quite intense cyclone by date 8-10 bottoming out at 975 hpa. The icewill have a rough time ahead!

Something thst might be of importance later this year is if significant amounts of snow is falling now over the ice which might prevent strong refreezing and umpact 2017 melting season.


seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4022 on: August 16, 2016, 12:34:19 AM »
The last reported minimum pressure is 969 hpa. Nullschool shows max sustained 60 km/h  (35 knot). Zhang et al mention maximum 12 m/s for GAC which is 25 knot (but I remember reading like 40 knot). These speeds are very high for summer Arctic.
In the PIOMAS study, drift speeds are approx 1/20 th of wind speed. In today storm this translates to 3 km/h ~ 70 km/day!
The HYCOM drift shows ugly divergence with center at the ESS bite and projecting into the weak ice toward Wrangel, coinciding with the direction of max speeds. It seems a really bad location.
969 hpa currently, near GAC-graded but this is all anticipatory arousal. Expecting to next 48h changes...
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/zhang/Pubs/Zhang_etal2013_cyclone_grl50190.pdf
« Last Edit: August 16, 2016, 12:48:08 AM by seaicesailor »

Neven

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4023 on: August 16, 2016, 12:56:51 AM »
This has got to lead to some detachment. I can't wait to see tomorrow's Uni Bremen SIC map.
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weatherdude88

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4024 on: August 16, 2016, 01:01:22 AM »
Plot the same graph from each source if you want to show differences, not one thing from DMI and something different from PIOMAS.

I'll leave that as an exercise for the interested reader. FTB for example?

Jim, thank you for your presentation of the US Navy HYCOM/CICE implementation against the DMI HYCOM/CICE presentation. It seems to me that in this particular case (2016 versus 2012) the US Navy HYCOM/CICE model is consistent with PIOMAS and Cryosat 2 observations, and DMI is NOT.

For example, as early as June 23, DMI still showed 3 - 4 meter ice in the Pacific section of the CAB :


None of the other ice volume product (US Navy HYCOM/CICE nor PIOMAS nor Cryosat 2) show that thick ice in that area.
 
And may I add that Richard Rathbone provides only unfounded criticism of your work, and fails to provide ANY evidence in this comparison.

PIOMAS clearly shows thicker ice than 2010,2011,2012, and 2013.



Since the last PIOMAS update was in July and weather conditions have remained favorable for slower than average ice melt, it is no surprise DMI's updated sea ice thickness shows thicker ice than 2012. (Keep in mind, in 2012 the GAC already did most of its damage in relationship to ice volume as demonstrated by the various papers posted here). Furthermore, DMI's sea ice thickness model is based on HYCOM-CICE. Lastly, your posted graph is from 2015.

AbruptSLR

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4025 on: August 16, 2016, 01:04:13 AM »
The last reported minimum pressure is 969 hpa. Nullschool shows max sustained 60 km/h  (35 knot

Here is a Nullschool image showing the 969-hPa MSLP.
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JayW

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4026 on: August 16, 2016, 01:07:44 AM »
August 11-15, the strong cyclone can be seen in the last few frames, entering in the upper left corner.  I tried to get a larger scene of view, to show the impressive moisture stream coming over the Bering strait roughly.

http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu/search?utf8=✓&search%5Bsensors%5D%5B4%5D=1&search%5Bsensors%5D%5B3%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B5%5D=1&search%5Bstart%5D=&search%5Bend%5D=&commit=Search

Edit: Since I'm still the last post, I'll just add this, second attachment is the last 30 hours, AVHRR loop.  A classic "comma"  shape, I'd expect snow/sleet in the "commahead" and rain in the"tall", just my opinion though.  :)

http://weather.gc.ca/satellite/satellite_anim_e.html?sat=hrpt&area=dfo&type=nir
« Last Edit: August 16, 2016, 01:32:25 AM by JayW »
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wili

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4027 on: August 16, 2016, 04:02:36 AM »
Robertscribbler now has a post on this: https://robertscribbler.com/2016/08/15/powerful-cyclone-to-blow-hole-in-thinning-arctic-sea-ice/

Powerful Cyclone to Blow Hole in Thinning Arctic Sea Ice

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budmantis

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4028 on: August 16, 2016, 07:56:51 AM »
Thanks for the post Wili.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4029 on: August 16, 2016, 09:55:58 AM »
The Canadian 00Z synopsis shows the cyclone SLP still at 969 hPa:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/08/the-great-arctic-cyclone-of-2016/#Aug-16

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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4030 on: August 16, 2016, 10:04:01 AM »
I can't wait to see tomorrow's Uni Bremen SIC map.

Here you go:
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4031 on: August 16, 2016, 10:17:17 AM »
Furthermore, DMI's sea ice thickness model is based on HYCOM-CICE

At the risk of repeating myself, these sea ice thickness model outputs are both based on HYCOM-CICE. For some strange reason the DMI version shows sea ice where the Bremen AMSR2 map claims there is none:




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Nightvid Cole

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4032 on: August 16, 2016, 01:49:18 PM »
Lots of holes in the NCEP map, which has a higher concentration cutoff for showing ice:


slow wing

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4033 on: August 16, 2016, 02:05:41 PM »
The Arctic forecast continues to look horrific, with strong low pressure systems persisting in the Arctic Basin through to the end of the forecasts, in 10 days time and 17 days time for ECMWF and GFS respectively. See, e.g. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=nhem&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016081600&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=155.

  Although the specific values wouldn't be expected to verify so far into the future, the ECMWF forecast ends with a 973 hPa minimum at 00z Friday, 26 August 2016 and GFS ends with 978 hPa at 06z on Thursday, 1 September 2016 (and 969 hPa at 18z on Tuesday, 30 August). So no end in sight to the stormy weather.

  The beginning of the storms is seen to be already damaging what remains of the ice pack - see for example the .gif posted by Wipneus on his Home Brew thread, showing an ice area loss on 14 August that worked out to 155,000 km2.

  In my view the 2016 Arctic sea ice melt season is now likely to surpass what took place in 2012 - the worst year on record so far - presuming only that the weather forecasts are at least qualitatively correct in their predictions of continuing strong storms over the next 10 days or longer.

This is looking historic and disastrous for the Arctic ecosystem and may also have weather consequences over the rest of the Northern Hemisphere.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4034 on: August 16, 2016, 02:32:30 PM »
This is not a direct result of the cyclone, but there's an interesting sequence of "flash melting" images developing on the "Buoys" thread:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,327.msg86378.html#msg86378

Now you see it......

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4035 on: August 16, 2016, 04:50:16 PM »
If I'm interpreting the charts  correctly, the 967mb hour 216 storm predicted by today's 0z ECMWF to be in the central Arctic next week is actually the 996mb low on the hour 0 chart today! It slowly strengthens moving east along the Russian coast as the current storm fills in, and then essentially replaces it via the ESS area. (Again, if I'm interpreting correctly, which might not be the case.

Hour 216


Hour 00

AbruptSLR

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4036 on: August 16, 2016, 07:04:02 PM »
Per Nullschool the Arctic cyclone currently has a central MSLP of 972-hPa.
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4037 on: August 16, 2016, 09:08:35 PM »
EURO/CMC now in agreement that next storm ~D7 will drop below 960mbs...


AbruptSLR

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4038 on: August 16, 2016, 09:27:16 PM »
EURO/CMC now in agreement that next storm ~D7 will drop below 960mbs...

The WunderBlog has a good article on the current Arctic cyclone (with a central low pressure of 968 hPa at 2am EDT Tuesday morning), with an honorable mention of the ASIF; but it does not acknowledge the possible 959 hPa event circa August 24 2016:

Bob Henson , 6:29 PM GMT on August 16, 2016, "The Great Arctic Cyclone of 2016: After Four Years, a Summer Sequel"

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/the-great-arctic-cyclone-of-2016-after-four-years-a-summer-sequel

Extract: "As of Tuesday, the deepest cyclone in the Northern Hemisphere wasn’t anywhere near the tropics--it was spinning in the central Arctic Ocean. A surface low located near 83°N, about 500 miles from the North Pole and about 1000 miles north of Barrow, Alaska, deepened to a central pressure of 968 mb at 2 am EDT Tuesday morning, August 16. This is on par with the central pressure you might find in a moderately-sized Category 2 hurricane. Such lows are a common feature of Arctic climate, but they rarely gain such intensity in the middle of summer. The only deeper Arctic cyclone on record in August is the Great Arctic Cyclone (GAC) of 2012, a low that bottomed out at 966 mb on August 6. This was the lowest pressure analyzed across more than 1600 August cyclones in the Arctic since 1979, according to a 2012 study by Ian Simmonds and Irina Rudeva (University of Melbourne).

The GAC of 2012 churned across the Arctic for ten days while its central pressure was below 1000 mb. The cyclone had major effects on the distribution of regional ice and appears to have played at least some role in that summer’s record depletion of Arctic sea ice. Normally, low pressure near the North Pole causes ice to spread out (as surface waters and sea ice move to the right of the surface wind). Yet the intensity and duration of the 2012 cyclone’s winds and waves appears to have more than compensated for that effect, leading to an overall loss of ice extent. The extent plummeted in August 2012 en route to a record-low extent in September.

A study in 2013 led by Jinlun Zhang (University of Washington) found that the GAC quadrupled the melting of sea ice from below by pushing warm surface water against the bottom of wind- and wave-tossed ice floes. However, because much of the Arctic ice was already thin and compromised, much of the extent loss that occurred in August and September was baked into the system when the cyclone came along. Zhang and colleagues estimated from a model simulation that the record September minimum was only about 4% lower as a result of the GAC of 2012.

It’s too soon to know exactly how this year’s storm--let’s call it the Great Arctic Cyclone of 2016 for now--will affect the Arctic. However, according to polar researcher James Screen (University of Exeter), “This certainly has the potential to be an interesting event and possibly have a big influence on whether or not we see a new record sea ice minimum next month.”

For deep coverage of the deep Arctic cyclone, check out the dedicated post at the Arctic Sea Ice Blog, as well as recent entries in “The 2016 melting season” at the Arctic Sea Ice Forum."

Edit: Caption for the attached image: "Figure 5. Largely due to incredible winter warmth, temperatures averaged north of the Arctic Circle for the period January through July were far higher this year than in any year since records began in 1948. Image credit: Zach Labe, Cornell University, @ZLabe."
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4039 on: August 16, 2016, 10:12:19 PM »
For comparative purposes the linked Wikipedia article on the Great Arctic Cyclone of 2012, has useful references:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Arctic_Cyclone_of_2012


1. Michael D. Lemonick (December 27, 2012). "Great Arctic Cyclone in Summer 'Unprecedented'". Climate Central.

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/last-summers-great-arctic-cyclone-unprecedented-says-new-study-15415

2.Jump up ^ Simmonds, Ian; Irina Rudeva (December 2012). "The great Arctic cyclone of August 2012". Geophysical Research Letters. 39 (23). Bibcode:2012GeoRL..3923709S. doi:10.1029/2012GL054259.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL054259/abstract

3.Jump up ^ Hannah Hickey. "Cyclone did not cause 2012 record low for Arctic sea ice". University of Washington.

http://www.washington.edu/news/2013/01/31/cyclone-did-not-cause-2012-record-low-for-arctic-sea-ice/

« Last Edit: August 16, 2016, 10:32:32 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Juan C. García

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4040 on: August 16, 2016, 10:38:57 PM »
For comparative purposes the linked Wikipedia article on the Great Arctic Cyclone of 2012, has useful references:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Arctic_Cyclone_of_2012


1. Michael D. Lemonick (December 27, 2012). "Great Arctic Cyclone in Summer 'Unprecedented'". Climate Central.

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/last-summers-great-arctic-cyclone-unprecedented-says-new-study-15415

2.Jump up ^ Simmonds, Ian; Irina Rudeva (December 2012). "The great Arctic cyclone of August 2012". Geophysical Research Letters. 39 (23). Bibcode:2012GeoRL..3923709S. doi:10.1029/2012GL054259.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL054259/abstract

3.Jump up ^ Hannah Hickey. "Cyclone did not cause 2012 record low for Arctic sea ice". University of Washington.

http://www.washington.edu/news/2013/01/31/cyclone-did-not-cause-2012-record-low-for-arctic-sea-ice/

Wiki should have a link to Neven's Arctic Sea Ice Blog. After all, he was the one who anticipated that it was going to happen, and the effects that the GAC had on the ASI.

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2012/08/cyclone-warning.html
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4041 on: August 16, 2016, 11:08:20 PM »
Wiki should have a link to Neven's Arctic Sea Ice Blog.

Now implemented.
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Rubikscube

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4042 on: August 16, 2016, 11:20:22 PM »
Geee, this is exciting, though I have a suspicion it will and with no significant cliff, for the following reasons: this is 10 days behind GAC-2012 and the ESS-tongue has proven very hard to melt in the past, temps are cold and will go even colder in the aftermath (GAC lingered for a few days, but was relatively quickly replaced by a dipole) and this is "just" 968-969 pHa with epicenter further to the north. I won't claim to know, lets say 70-30% on stall or no-effect vs. crash, could go either way.

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4043 on: August 16, 2016, 11:32:08 PM »
Geee, this is exciting, though I have a suspicion it will and with no significant cliff, for the following reasons: this is 10 days behind GAC-2012 and the ESS-tongue has proven very hard to melt in the past, temps are cold and will go even colder in the aftermath (GAC lingered for a few days, but was relatively quickly replaced by a dipole) and this is "just" 968-969 pHa with epicenter further to the north. I won't claim to know, lets say 70-30% on stall or no-effect vs. crash, could go either way.

Don't forget that while GAC 2012 had a central pressure of 966 hPa, per the 192-hr GCMWF forecast at the linked site (or see the image in Reply #4037), we may well have a second 2016 cyclonic event (by August 24) with a central pressure as low as 959 hPa (so in August 2016 a 968-hPa cyclonic event followed by a dipole followed by a possible 959-hPa cyclonic event):

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=nhem&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016081612&fh=192&xpos=0&ypos=155
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4044 on: August 16, 2016, 11:49:34 PM »
Geee, this is exciting, though I have a suspicion it will and with no significant cliff, for the following reasons: this is 10 days behind GAC-2012 and the ESS-tongue has proven very hard to melt in the past, temps are cold and will go even colder in the aftermath (GAC lingered for a few days, but was relatively quickly replaced by a dipole) and this is "just" 968-969 pHa with epicenter further to the north. I won't claim to know, lets say 70-30% on stall or no-effect vs. crash, could go either way.

Somewhere here it was mentioned some days ago, that the 2012 ice was in weaker conditions than the actual ice. I strongly doubt that. I think the persistent cloud cover creates that appearance and one of the reasons I created some 48-hours-composite-images from the Bemen maps was to reduce that effect. Also, water is probably the mayor carrier of melt energy at this time of the year - and the deep, relatively warm water brought to the surface by the cyclone, doesn't change its temperature nor looses much of it once it reaches the surface due to a 10 day difference. As long as the cyclone rages, there will be a huge amount of melt.
« Last Edit: August 16, 2016, 11:55:50 PM by Thawing Thunder »
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4045 on: August 17, 2016, 12:17:24 AM »
The cyclone will re-intensify multiple times over the next 2 weeks. The ECMWF has it bombing to 959mb in 192 hours. There's a huge amount of vorticity spinning towards the pole from the north Atlantic over the next 2 weeks and it's pulling in warm air from the Eurasian continent. A huge amount of ice will be melted on the Eurasian side of the pole.
(quoted elsewhere and posting my reply here rather than the other thread, as this one is more relevent)

Current conditions have all the indications of another "Cyclone Cannon" firing back up again, launching storm after storm up along the North American eastern seaboard into the Barents, and then swinging around into the CAB proper.

NOAA is predicting an active Hurricane season.  I'll have to check to see if the related similar phenomenon is starting to spin up along the east Asian coast line into the Bering - much as it also did last year.

My prediction is, the imported heat will extend bottom melt by one or more weeks by partially replacing the input lost by declining insolation.  If it continues, we will be looking at another delayed start to the melt season in the peripheral seas, and be setting up for a new record "MinMax" as we saw last winter.

I'm still not convinced that we will beat 2012.  I'm increasingly confident we are about to beat everything else.
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FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4046 on: August 17, 2016, 12:24:14 AM »
This pattern is bigger than the Arctic ocean. Winds and currents are pushing warm salty Atlantic water up the coast of Norway, up the Barents and Kara seas and into the European side of the Arctic ocean. On the American side, cold fresh water is being drained through the Canadian archipelago into the Labrador sea. Because this pattern is setting up for a few weeks we can expect it to accelerate the normal flow in and out of the Arctic.

It looks like the flow through from the Pacific through the Bering strait to the Atlantic has been minimal for months. In 2007 & 2012 there was more warm water from the Pacific to melt out the ice. The surge of Atlantic water is not just at the surface, it goes down to 500 meters deep, or more. It started last winter.

be cause

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4047 on: August 17, 2016, 12:54:08 AM »
Wait 4 years for a GAC and now GEM has 4 in the 10 day forecast .
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4048 on: August 17, 2016, 12:57:45 AM »
AMSR2 shows what may be the most amount of open (or nearly open) area above 85N on record. I would think that this extreme gradient with Greenland and the core of the CAB pack is further enhancing feedbacks at play. The question is whether all the ice north of the main pack melts, or if bits remain in the highest-concentration areas separated from the main pack, N of Siberia.


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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4049 on: August 17, 2016, 01:07:51 AM »
CAB Pack ice meets the "Atlantic Front" off of Svalbard.

The cyclone is shoving this entire ice front into warmer water at the rate of about 15KM/day or so +/- a bit.

Same story, from the Fram pretty much all the way to Franz Josef.  Further east, the wind stars backing around more to the southwest.
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