The pressure dipole is setting up now in the Arctic basin, with high pressure on the Alaskan side opposing low pressure on the Atlantic side and bringing winds blowing from Siberia over the Arctic Basin and across to the Canadian Arctic coast.
At tropicaltidbits.com we can now inspect and compare the ECMWF forecast initialised at 12z on 24 August 2016 with the GFS initialised at 18z on 24 August 2016. Neither of these forecasts is backing off on the strength of the predicted dipole!
I don't want to show too many forecast maps on here as they may not pan out. But the dipole is expected to intensify over the next several days, slowly at first but then getting quite dramatic.
To summarise with the maximum predicted pressure differences:
a) for ECMWF, 120h forecast at 12z Monday 29 August 2016 has 1038 hPa just inside the Bering Strait opposing 969 hPa in the Kara Sea:
1038 hPa - 969 hPa = 69 hPa pressure difference; and
a) for GFS, 108h forecast at 06z Monday 29 August 2016 has, in about the same positions, 1036 hPa just inside the Bering Strait opposing 955 hPa(!) in the Kara Sea:
1036 hPa - 955 hPa = 81 hPa pressure difference! The predictions are obviously uncertain but the dipole is already setting up and all indications are that it will be both strong and persistent. Such a powerful dipole weather system would be expected to:
a) squash the main ice pack hard against the Canadian Arctic coast; and
b) wipe out some or most of the ice remnants remaining off the Chukchi and East Siberian Seas; and
c) on the Atlantic side, pose a stern test for the ice around the Laptev Sea, maybe leaving one or more patches of ice here - separated from the main pack of a.