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bbr2314

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4250 on: August 22, 2016, 09:06:26 AM »
It will be interesting to watch Siberia over the next week as the models are now showing the season's first snowfalls over much of the region -- which is, I believe, extremely (and perhaps record-setting) early!



I would think that the outcome of substantial snowcover across adjacent landmasses (contrast against the relatively warm SSTs of the Arctic) may promote additional blocking into September (and likely thereafter as well), encouraging the cold contents of the Arctic's gut to continually spill out across northern North America & Russia instead of remaining intact.

Flocke

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johnm33

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4252 on: August 22, 2016, 10:57:08 AM »
I've read a bunch of comments in this forum that the sea ice is in a horrible state compared to 2012.  The same comments were being made in July, yet the GAC 2012 version destroyed all the ESS ice completely, whereas this year it just spun it around some and reduced the total extent/area figures by a somewhat above average, but nowhere near remarkable amount.

I think the ice is in a better state than some give it credit for.  Still bad and on a long term downward trend of course.
Michael, for your consideration. http://eh2r.blogspot.co.uk/2016/08/thicker-sea-ice-look-for-less-snow.html

NeilT

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4253 on: August 22, 2016, 11:22:00 AM »
I've read a bunch of comments in this forum that the sea ice is in a horrible state compared to 2012.  The same comments were being made in July, yet the GAC 2012 version destroyed all the ESS ice completely, whereas this year it just spun it around some and reduced the total extent/area figures by a somewhat above average, but nowhere near remarkable amount.

I think the ice is in a better state than some give it credit for.  Still bad and on a long term downward trend of course.

I've been saying this since I realised that the year was going to follow the 2006 track back in April/May.

There was not enough melt momentum early enough to put the ice into a dangerous state before the storms hit.  As Neven likes to remind us, early melt momentum is critical to low September sea ice.

The real shockers of this years season have been the state of the pack, the way it's been torn to shreds very near the pole and the damage it has set up for 2017.

Early top melt end W1 Sept followed by a bit of surging up and down as bottom melt runs on to W3 Sept. That's my bet.

BTW my Sept Minimum Extent poll was 5.0 to 5.25.  Looks like it will come in a touch below what I thought but not that much as the ice is too resilient right now and the pack is too dispersed.

I mourn the loss of the CT data as it would have been an exceptional season to watch.  But this happens a lot.

It looks like the northern sea route will open for a week or two, I don't think the main passage to the NW passage will open.  The feeder for that is thicker ice from the last pool of thick ice.  Usually that means it won't just vanish.  Only a major change in the wind would open it, I think.

Now it's just a matter of watching the storms and see what they do.
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Neven

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4254 on: August 22, 2016, 11:23:17 AM »
I've read a bunch of comments in this forum that the sea ice is in a horrible state compared to 2012.  The same comments were being made in July, yet the GAC 2012 version destroyed all the ESS ice completely, whereas this year it just spun it around some and reduced the total extent/area figures by a somewhat above average, but nowhere near remarkable amount.

I think the ice is in a better state than some give it credit for.  Still bad and on a long term downward trend of course.

Which would make sense, given the considerable lack of preconditioning (melt ponds). We'd be seeing those big drops if June and/or July had been more sunny. The question now is whether there is still enough time for all that loose ice to melt out. It wasn't in 2010.
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JayW

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4255 on: August 22, 2016, 11:27:35 AM »
Oops, originally posted in the wrong thread

ECMWF ensembles signaling a strong surge of warmth to over spread that ice north of Wrangel.  Probably some decent southerly winds as well.

Attached are hours 120 and 144.  +10°C isn't unimpressive at 5-6 day lead times.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=ak&pkg=T850a&runtime=2016082200&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=16
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AdiF

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4256 on: August 22, 2016, 01:46:36 PM »
NSIDC states:
"Fresh water freezes at 0 degrees Celsius (32 degrees Fahrenheit), but the freezing point of sea water varies. For every 5 ppt increase in salinity, the freezing point decreases by 0.28 degrees Celsius (0.5 degrees Fahrenheit); thus, in polar regions with an ocean salinity of 35 ppt, the water begins to freeze at -1.8 degrees Celsius (28.8 degrees Fahrenheit)."

Thus:

ppt   Freezing point
33   -1.69
34   -1.74
35   -1.8


That is true for freezing of the the sea water, but ice - that is more or less pure water - is it not always melting at 0 degrees C?

Sigmetnow

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4257 on: August 22, 2016, 02:20:20 PM »
20-second NASA satellite video:  Arctic Sea Ice from March to August 2016

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greatdying2

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4258 on: August 22, 2016, 03:28:53 PM »
... the GAC ... this year it just spun it around some and reduced the total extent/area figures by a somewhat above average, but nowhere near remarkable amount.
Not remarkable, eh?
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4259 on: August 22, 2016, 08:34:31 PM »
... the GAC ... this year it just spun it around some and reduced the total extent/area figures by a somewhat above average, but nowhere near remarkable amount.
Not remarkable, eh?
There are also lots of clouds which is why area is "stabilizing" (but underneath.... it obvs isn't)

12z EURO is much more aggressive with blowtorch, this is just incredible! Huge dipole....





We should get some clearing in the next few days and I anticipate a century drop or two as that happens. It should also be noted that the models are now showing sustained dual sub-980mb cyclones spinning around the Arctic after the current GAC passes....

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4260 on: August 22, 2016, 08:58:36 PM »
12z ECM looking very bad for the ice. Strong dipole, huge +ve temperature anomalies, lots of compaction.

I doubt we get 850hPa temperatures of over 12C in the middle of the Arctic ocean too often, let alone in the last week of August!



12z GFS is quite warm too, but not to such an extreme.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4261 on: August 22, 2016, 09:01:42 PM »
12z ECM looking very bad for the ice. Strong dipole, huge +ve temperature anomalies, lots of compaction.

I doubt we get 850hPa temperatures of over 12C in the middle of the Arctic ocean too often, let alone in the last week of August!



12z GFS is quite warm too, but not to such an extreme.

i think the other impact of this will be a very large and unprecedented-early increase in Siberian snowcover... that would act to further perpetuate those height anomalies as the warm ocean temps contrast against snow-covered land to the south, "gutting" the Arctic of its cold. we shall see...

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4262 on: August 22, 2016, 09:28:32 PM »

i think the other impact of this will be a very large and unprecedented-early increase in Siberian snowcover... that would act to further perpetuate those height anomalies as the warm ocean temps contrast against snow-covered land to the south, "gutting" the Arctic of its cold. we shall see...

August snow cover has been lacking for over a decade, but before 2000 it was relatively common. Either way, some shallow, scattered snow cover won't effect the Arctic weather patterns.

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=1&ui_region=eurasia&ui_month=8

Lots of (relatively)warm, open water in the Arctic can certainly boost Autumn snow cover potential, so something to watch. The early snow can insulate the permafrost from the extreme cold of winter  and thus keep it warmer than it would normally be (another +ve feedback).

Anywho, after the lull in area/extent drops the last few days due to the below average air temps and mainly slack winds, I'd expect the drops to appear again during the week. Compaction could play a big role over the next 5 days.

werther

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4263 on: August 22, 2016, 09:36:45 PM »
The last melt situation? For next Saturday ECMWF forecasts this:



Without this, the season seems to fizzle out. Which most seasons do in the last two, three weeks before extent and area losses stall. This year, the fizzle seems extra strong. The cyclonic weather has brought lower 1000Mb temps than most years passed. Not that refreeze really takes off at -2 dC. But it seems more and more plausible that extent will not reach the 4 Mkm2 limit.
This ridge over the Bering side and the influx of warm temps at 850Mb might be the last burden on the struggling ice-arm up to Wrangel Island.

I know that the cyclonic action will be over the Laptev-Severnaya Zemlya arm tomorrow until thursday. Maybe it will cause another round of havoc there. However, I doubt if that will produce a noticeable extent drop.
Nevertheless, I think this season still has opted for the worst quality condition ever. What will the freezing season bring? Something similar to last winter? Then next year the ‘black swan’-event might occur.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4264 on: August 22, 2016, 09:57:18 PM »
A main question is how much ice transport toward the "hot spots" the cyclones will do to the Atlantic. If the cyclones are strong enough they might open up a more pronounced polynya northeast of Svalbard.

While refreezing will come it will start later in the fringe zones.

In any case, most of the ice is just a bloody mess. And we really learned how bad an extremely warm Arctic winter can be to the ice last year!

Cate

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4265 on: August 23, 2016, 01:05:47 AM »
For what it's worth--The Guardian has weighed in:

"Summer sea ice is at its lowest since records began 125 years ago."

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2016/aug/22/historical-documents-reveal-arctic-sea-ice-is-disappearing-at-record-speed

Neven

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4266 on: August 23, 2016, 01:34:38 AM »
2016 Arctic cyclone, update 3.

I'll be travelling for a day or two, but will be on line after that. Be nice to each other.  ;)
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slow wing

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4267 on: August 23, 2016, 01:51:37 AM »
Thanks for another fine update as usual, Neven. Particularly interesting was the 2012 predictions of more frequent and more intense Arctic summer storms, foreshadowing this melt season.

Attached below is the situation in the Arctic right at the moment as shown by Nullschool.

  As you can see, strong winds over most of the Arctic basin are being driven by a pressure difference of around 60 hPa(!) between the low in the Laptev Sea and the high over Greenland. Wind speeds reach 60 km/h in the Laptev and are in the high 40s off the coast of Greenland.

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4268 on: August 23, 2016, 02:36:57 AM »
if that becomes true that could split the ice like an ax a log of wood. ( just if ) wind direction and 3-5 meter waves entering that narrows at full force could make for an interesting end ( or dissipate like so many other events that were looking dangerous ) let's see.

EDIT: to look at UH map and  considering the already poor condition in continuation of that "ice fjord" LOL
it will be a bit easier to see what i mean.
« Last Edit: August 23, 2016, 02:42:17 AM by magnamentis »

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4269 on: August 23, 2016, 05:30:28 AM »
Off NE Greenland, this huge amount of ice is breaking away and moving slowly, but east or south it's got a one way ticket.

At yhe upper left corner of the pic, the rhomboid blocks are some of the MYI from the sanctuary, that Werther describes, about to melt out. If we sum these and what is gone at Beaufort this must has been as bad year for MYI as past year.
I am afraid it may get worse for the MYI  yet, as more appears to be breaking off.

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4270 on: August 23, 2016, 06:11:28 AM »
12z ECM looking very bad for the ice. Strong dipole, huge +ve temperature anomalies, lots of compaction.

I doubt we get 850hPa temperatures of over 12C in the middle of the Arctic ocean too often, let alone in the last week of August!

12z GFS is quite warm too, but not to such an extreme.

I've seen 850hp up to about 20C in GFS, but not as far from the coast as that.  And I don't think I've seen 12C much if at all in the last few years.  Although GFS is showing kind of mediocre for summer, but probably quite hot for this late in 850hp, the 500hp thickness looks rather extreme to my eyes.

I think this pattern will be much more dangerous for the ice than the recent cyclone.  The only question is whether waning sun will mean that high pressure system won't be as damaging as it would have been a month or so earlier.  Still the gradient between high and low will bring nearly as much wind as the cyclone did, and will be pushing it into the Atlantic instead of around in circles.  And high pressure heats through adiabatic heating of sinking air, as well as letting the sunlight in.
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4271 on: August 23, 2016, 07:23:43 AM »
NSIDC states:
"Fresh water freezes at 0 degrees Celsius (32 degrees Fahrenheit), but the freezing point of sea water varies. For every 5 ppt increase in salinity, the freezing point decreases by 0.28 degrees Celsius (0.5 degrees Fahrenheit); thus, in polar regions with an ocean salinity of 35 ppt, the water begins to freeze at -1.8 degrees Celsius (28.8 degrees Fahrenheit)."

Thus:

ppt   Freezing point
33   -1.69
34   -1.74
35   -1.8


That is true for freezing of the the sea water, but ice - that is more or less pure water - is it not always melting at 0 degrees C?

Fair question, but no. Saline water lowers the melt/freeze temperature of pure (H2O) ice drifting in it.
The detailed physics of that (of what happens at the boundary) are quite complex, but an easy way to remember is that the laws of thermodynamics dictate that there be no "hysteresis" in the melting process. In other words, melt/freeze occurs the same temperature, which depends on the salt content of the liquid. For Arctic ocean water (salt content 28-35 PSU (Practical Salinity Unit)) the melt/freeze temperature ranges between -1.5 C and -1.8 C respectively.
« Last Edit: August 23, 2016, 07:32:51 AM by Rob Dekker »
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4272 on: August 23, 2016, 02:15:35 PM »
My own morning musings on the cyclone:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/08/the-great-arctic-cyclone-of-2016/#Aug-23

A 1030-970 dipole = lots of ice "drift". What are the implications for sea ice area?

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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4273 on: August 23, 2016, 03:38:14 PM »
My uneducated guess? Near term, continued turbulent weather should cause area to drop due to melt from rough seas and extent should continue to climb as ice spreads out further. What this means for season end????

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4274 on: August 23, 2016, 05:05:38 PM »
What this means for season end????

A quick refreeze which keeps the warmth in the water. Also a weak, irregular, prefractured surface of the ice cover prone to early breakup next year. Maybe even stealth bottom melt for months to go?
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4275 on: August 23, 2016, 06:09:38 PM »
What this means for season end????

A quick refreeze which keeps the warmth in the water. Also a weak, irregular, prefractured surface of the ice cover prone to early breakup next year. Maybe even stealth bottom melt for months to go?
RE: Fracturing at freeze-up this recent video shows patterns that likely are from wavelength at freeze-up about 35-seconds in; "NASA Measuring Sea Ice at the Peak of Melt"; August 19, 2016; 1:10;
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4276 on: August 23, 2016, 07:33:24 PM »
if that becomes true that could split the ice like an ax a log of wood.
WUT

( just if ) wind direction and 3-5 meter waves entering that narrows at full force
DOUBLE WUT

timallard

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4277 on: August 23, 2016, 08:26:35 PM »
if that becomes true that could split the ice like an ax a log of wood.
WUT

( just if ) wind direction and 3-5 meter waves entering that narrows at full force
DOUBLE WUT
This may relate to what happens, a fall storm began making ice so teams deployed buoys to capture events, next day the ice had gone in spite of temps & winds!! ... a warm layer 20m down likely mixed to the surface from the waves;

Applied Physics Lab, Unv. of Washington; "ARCTIC SEA STATE; Sea State and Boundary Layer Physics of the Emerging Arctic Ocean"; late October; APL-UW; 5:13; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tDmM5zsxd4E?
-tom

slow wing

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4278 on: August 23, 2016, 10:56:14 PM »

This may relate to what happens, a fall storm began making ice so teams deployed buoys to capture events, next day the ice had gone in spite of temps & winds!! ... a warm layer 20m down likely mixed to the surface from the waves;

Applied Physics Lab, Unv. of Washington; "ARCTIC SEA STATE; Sea State and Boundary Layer Physics of the Emerging Arctic Ocean"; late October; APL-UW; 5:13; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tDmM5zsxd4E?
That's very interesting and informative, thank you.

slow wing

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4279 on: August 24, 2016, 01:27:07 AM »
Today is another breezy day for the Arctic Ocean...

bbr2314

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4280 on: August 24, 2016, 06:27:55 AM »
00z GFS shows an insane gradient developing as we see another GAC/dipole setup...


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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4281 on: August 24, 2016, 06:34:36 AM »
Bbr, you were somewhat faster to announce the possibility to a new GAC evolving by monday-wednesday bottoming out at 966 hpa.

Such a scenario would be extremely bad news for the ice as the cyclone would hit the ice where it really hurts.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4282 on: August 24, 2016, 06:52:27 AM »
Bbr, you were somewhat faster to announce the possibility to a new GAC evolving by monday-wednesday bottoming out at 966 hpa.

Such a scenario would be extremely bad news for the ice as the cyclone would hit the ice where it really hurts.
The CMC also follows the GFS...

It seems that the GACs take turns soaking up heat from the peripheral seas, but we have had a pretty consistent barrage over the Kara/"eastern" Arctic as of late.

I wonder if that means another very strong storm is coming *after* the next event for the Beaufort side? One last big bang before we hit minimum? With the amount of heat the Beaufort is going to take in over the next week+, certainly seems increasingly possible.

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4283 on: August 24, 2016, 06:56:10 AM »
If these strong cyclones are being caused by high SSTs, then why haven't we had more strong cyclones in the last 10 years.  SSTs if anything look cooler this year compared to previous years.  Which is only to be expected if the ocean keeps getting cooled by all these storms.

Eg 2007 vs now
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4284 on: August 24, 2016, 07:15:36 AM »
If these strong cyclones are being caused by high SSTs, then why haven't we had more strong cyclones in the last 10 years.  SSTs if anything look cooler this year compared to previous years.  Which is only to be expected if the ocean keeps getting cooled by all these storms.

Eg 2007 vs now
I suspect it is because we have the least amount of structurally sound ice ever this year. Even at 70-80% concentration that leaves water to soak up energy.

I would also take those NOAA maps with a grain of salt, would use polar projection view instead/DMI.

While 2012 had less area at this point, what remained was still cohesive, unlike this year (outside of the now-seemingly-solidifying triangle of solid ice N of the CAA/Greenland).

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4285 on: August 24, 2016, 12:53:37 PM »
Yep, as already mentioned above an intense dipole wind pattern is forecast for the Arctic Ocean, with the high on the Alaskan side (Chukchi and/or Beaufort Seas) opposing a low on the Atlantic side.

That would/will send strong winds steering the remaining ice towards the ice sanctuary off the Canadian Arctic coast as well as compacting the ice already there.

 The GFS and ECMWF forecasts of tropicaltidbits.com agree that winds are forecast to become strong within 3 days in the Chukchi and East Siberian Seas and to persist for at least several days.

  By 00z Saturday, 27 August 2016 the 66h GFS forecast has 969 hPa opposing 1028 hPa (59 hPa difference) while the 72h ECMWF has 971 hPa opposing 1029 hPa (58 hPa difference).

  The maximum pressure differences forecast - occurring some days later - are:
  a) 1034 hPa - 973 hPa = 61 hPa for the 144h = 6 days GFS forecast for 06z Tuesday, 30 August 2016; and
  b) 1041 hPa - 975 hPa = 66 hPa for the 168h = 7 days ECMWF forecast for 00z Wednesday, 31 August 2016.

Shown below from those example predictions are the 66h GFS forecast and the 168h ECMWF forecast.

So that's August taken care of! ???

And that's not even to mention that we're already in another of the storms right now - with 60 km/h winds currently right inside the Arctic Basin and relatively close to the North Pole!

When will these crazy storms finally die away?  Will freeze-over cause/accomplish that? :o
« Last Edit: August 24, 2016, 01:01:13 PM by slow wing »

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4286 on: August 24, 2016, 01:38:08 PM »
Another view of the forecast. 2016 hasn't run out of surprises yet.

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4287 on: August 24, 2016, 01:41:07 PM »
When will these crazy storms finally die away?  Will freeze-over cause/accomplish that? :o

While I don't see much in-situ-thawing in the recent days - how could a serious freeze start in that stirred up water so early this year? There will rather be more spread and export to the Atlantik, with its constant melt (which will keep the energy source of those storms intact).

The remaining ice in the ESS might become detached, at least symbolically, as there's only a very small connection left (little more than 50km), though I doubt that connection or the vanishing of it will mean anything. In the end: I suppose the extent will keep stalling in the days to come, creating a mirage-like image hiding what's really happening on the "ground": An unceasingly spread of the remaining ice east of the north pole (when I say east I mean starting right at the north pole all the way east).
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jdallen

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4288 on: August 24, 2016, 05:46:13 PM »

While I don't see much in-situ-thawing in the recent days - how could a serious freeze start in that stirred up water so early this year? There will rather be more spread and export to the Atlantik, with its constant melt (which will keep the energy source of those storms intact).

A serious freeze *can't* start yet; SST's need to drop at least another 5C before that can really start happening, and it won't until enough heat is removed by the storms to let the upper layers of ocean cool sufficiently that the ice can remain.

Until then, even if we don't see it, melt is happening.
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JimboOmega

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4289 on: August 24, 2016, 05:56:46 PM »
In the end: I suppose the extent will keep stalling in the days to come, creating a mirage-like image hiding what's really happening on the "ground": An unceasingly spread of the remaining ice east of the north pole (when I say east I mean starting right at the north pole all the way east).

I'm not sure what you mean - all directions are south from the north pole.

In any case it seem so far that the ice being in poor condition, and being spread around hasn't really encouraged it to melt, and I'm not sure there's any reason for this week to be dfiferent.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4290 on: August 24, 2016, 06:16:27 PM »
Somebody may have pointed this out. If they did I missed it, but I think one reason the numbers, mainly SIE, is not changing much right now is because of the ice pushing into the Laptev and Kara where it melts before you know it was there and more ice fills its place from the outward dispersion of the main pack. You can see from pic(Franz Josef at bottom of pic) and map below that the ice is crossing into warmer waters now. It seemed stationary for so long,but no longer.



« Last Edit: August 24, 2016, 06:32:24 PM by Tigertown »

Nightvid Cole

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4291 on: August 24, 2016, 10:09:17 PM »
Are you feeling detached yet?


slow wing

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4292 on: August 25, 2016, 01:03:54 AM »
The pressure dipole is setting up now in the Arctic basin, with high pressure on the Alaskan side opposing low pressure on the Atlantic side and bringing winds blowing from Siberia over the Arctic Basin and across to the Canadian Arctic coast.

  At tropicaltidbits.com we can now inspect and compare the ECMWF forecast initialised at 12z on 24 August 2016 with the GFS initialised at 18z on 24 August 2016. Neither of these forecasts is backing off on the strength of the predicted dipole!

  I don't want to show too many forecast maps on here as they may not pan out. But the dipole is expected to intensify over the next several days, slowly at first but then getting quite dramatic.

  To summarise with the maximum predicted pressure differences:
  a) for ECMWF, 120h forecast at 12z Monday 29 August 2016 has 1038 hPa just inside the Bering Strait opposing 969 hPa in the Kara Sea: 1038 hPa - 969 hPa = 69 hPa pressure difference; and
a) for GFS, 108h forecast at 06z Monday 29 August 2016 has, in about the same positions, 1036 hPa just inside the Bering Strait opposing 955 hPa(!) in the Kara Sea: 1036 hPa - 955 hPa = 81 hPa pressure difference!

 :-\

The predictions are obviously uncertain but the dipole is already setting up and all indications are that it will be both strong and persistent. Such a powerful dipole weather system would be expected to:
  a) squash the main ice pack hard against the Canadian Arctic coast; and
  b) wipe out some or most of the ice remnants remaining off the Chukchi and East Siberian Seas; and
  c) on the Atlantic side, pose a stern test for the ice around the Laptev Sea, maybe leaving one or more patches of ice here - separated from the main pack of a.
« Last Edit: August 25, 2016, 01:16:29 AM by slow wing »

AbruptSLR

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4293 on: August 25, 2016, 01:17:31 AM »
The pressure dipole is setting up now in the Arctic basin, with high pressure on the Alaskan side opposing low pressure on the Atlantic side and bringing winds blowing from Siberia over the Arctic Basin and across to the Canadian Arctic coast.

Per the attached Nullschool Surface Wind & Temp map for Saturday August 27 2016, the dipole will draw in enough heat from the Pacific sector to have above freezing temps at the North Pole.
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12Patrick

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4294 on: August 25, 2016, 02:16:50 AM »
How you guys going to report on Arctic Sea Ice when there is no Arctic Sea Ice???

magnamentis

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4295 on: August 25, 2016, 02:44:16 AM »
looking at wind speeds over great areas an predicted temperaturs well above zero i suspect we could be i for a very late 200k drop in area and/or extent, perhaps the latest in history but don't have the data to verify when the latest 200k drop occured. there would be such a nice word LOL for what i see coming but it's too polarizing, hence i refrain from using it. interesting times lay ahead and almost non-stop over the next 7 days or more.

pauldry600

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4296 on: August 25, 2016, 03:02:30 AM »
Jeepers

So me 4.3m finishing figure could be in danger yet

The seas off Ireland(where I reside) this year are 15 and 16c so warmer than normal 13 or 14c

Just wonder will the warm North Atlantic impact up there this year. Last year it was 14c around now and still melt was high.

Still though id say SSTs are rising year on year and not helping

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4297 on: August 25, 2016, 03:42:15 AM »
looking at wind speeds over great areas an predicted temperaturs well above zero i suspect we could be i for a very late 200k drop in area and/or extent, perhaps the latest in history but don't have the data to verify when the latest 200k drop occured. there would be such a nice word LOL for what i see coming but it's too polarizing, hence i refrain from using it. interesting times lay ahead and almost non-stop over the next 7 days or more.
Juan C. Garcia probably could pinpoint that info regarding the latest 200k drop in a season.

slow wing

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4298 on: August 25, 2016, 04:12:02 AM »
As appended, 25 August is another date where Neven shows the year-to-year comparison for the University of Bremen Arctic sea ice concentration maps:
https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/concentration-maps/sic0825

By now, in my view the ice already looks worse in this form of display than in any previous year shown, including 2012. Although still considerably above 2012 in the metrics we have been using - defined prescriptions for extent and area - it is obvious to the eye that much less remains in 2016 of the crimson shaded regions denoting high concentration ice.

And the storms continue, though now with a high pressure region across from a low pressure one, in a so-called dipole configuration.

Sadly then, I still predict 2016 will end up the lowest in those metrics - even though this will require drops that would be unprecedented for this late in the melt season - and that, even more by gut feeling, we will consider 2016 to be the worst year so far for the Arctic sea ice.
« Last Edit: August 25, 2016, 04:37:57 AM by slow wing »

JayW

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4299 on: August 25, 2016, 05:45:55 AM »
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