Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: The 2016 melting season  (Read 1525919 times)

Rob Dekker

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2317
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 99
  • Likes Given: 111
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4600 on: September 05, 2016, 08:47:28 AM »
Some large holes at around 87N:


I was just peering at that myself.  What I find even more striking than the open water is the fact we have brash ice at 87N.

Indeed.
Thank you Jim for that high resolution image from 87 N.
And the brash ice swirls there suggest that there is actually still (bottom) melt going on there right now. That is surprising although I don't think melting alone is enough to clear the path to the NP. Also freezing around the NP will start seriously in the second half of September, so it may be that this ice (in the heart of the "heart") is going to be saved by the bell...
This is our planet. This is our time.
Let's not waste either.

gideonlow

  • New ice
  • Posts: 33
  • Fast Data/Big Data Systems Architect
    • View Profile
    • Pivotal Initiative -- Next Generation Data Technology
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4601 on: September 05, 2016, 10:28:03 AM »
Has mentioned that the remaining ice's shape bears more than a passing resemblance to Tombaugh Regio, "The Heart"?  The left side—Sputnik Planum—even has huge floating "icebergs", complex thermal convection, and huge areas of broken-ice chaos instead of the CAA.  It is A LOT colder, however  :o

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tombaugh_Regio

Back to lurking now . . .

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1091
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 89
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4602 on: September 05, 2016, 12:51:07 PM »
Also freezing around the NP will start seriously in the second half of September, so it may be that this ice (in the heart of the "heart") is going to be saved by the bell...

It does, however look like the polynya on the Atlantic side is going to be impressive come mid Sept.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

A-Team

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2361
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 272
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4603 on: September 05, 2016, 02:54:47 PM »
Here is a quantitative analysis of conditions in the Beaufort over the last 35 days ending 04 Sep 16 using Big Block as a proxy. While the trend in the number of pixels not representing open water is down, as is the mean sea ice concentration of these pixels, some back and forth occurs which is a mix of atmospheric artifact and flashing.

It's not clear whether BB will melt out this season or remain as a few raisins in the re-freeze pudding. The Beaufort appears to be very close to melt equilibrium.

The same analysis could be done for the Wrangel arm and Chukchi. There too the trend is off and on but perhaps still slightly down, again suggesting early September conditions close to a phase boundary.

The second animation shows quite a different situation in 2012 (which just recently became available back to 01 Aug 12 from UHH). It runs to 15 Sept; the dates of each frame are in the download if you are wanting to step through them. The Wrangel arm in that year flashed down to remnants left by the island over a few days in mid August, not to reappear again.
« Last Edit: September 05, 2016, 02:59:55 PM by A-Team »

6roucho

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 296
  • Finance geek
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4604 on: September 05, 2016, 03:24:13 PM »
Has mentioned that the remaining ice's shape bears more than a passing resemblance to Tombaugh Regio, "The Heart"?  The left side—Sputnik Planum—even has huge floating "icebergs", complex thermal convection, and huge areas of broken-ice chaos instead of the CAA.  It is A LOT colder, however  :o

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tombaugh_Regio

Back to lurking now . . .
Science rocks!

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4288
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 271
  • Likes Given: 27
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4288
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 271
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4606 on: September 05, 2016, 06:06:23 PM »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3943
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 407
  • Likes Given: 47

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3943
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 407
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4608 on: September 05, 2016, 07:12:11 PM »
I believe the reverse dipole could very well mean an early minimum for extent as the dispersed ice begins to migrate towards the Pacific side of the Arctic.

12Patrick

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 140
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4609 on: September 05, 2016, 08:32:39 PM »
Thinnest Arctic sea ice ever recorded since 1979... Correct?

seaicesailor

  • Guest
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4610 on: September 05, 2016, 09:11:36 PM »
A lot of action at the extreme of the Wrangel arm, squeezing whatever heat is available. August 30 - September 4

slow wing

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 791
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 144
  • Likes Given: 390
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4611 on: September 06, 2016, 05:36:14 AM »
Really appreciating the graphics and animations available to us this melt season.


As attached, the crimson high-concentration regions have moved around a lot from yesterday in today's U. Bremen Arctic sea ice concentration map - as Lodger pointed out happens in general.

In particular, some of the lower concentration area near the North Pole has moved away from there - towards Alaska as well as the Canadian Arctic coastline - showing the track of the strong low pressure centre that is now parked against that coastline - see second attachment, where the low pressure system is recorded as at 987 hPa.

The reverse dipole configuration is evident, with a 1030 hPa high on the Siberian side of the Arctic Basin, across from that low pressure system. That will cause winds to blow from the Atlantic side of the Basin through towards Alaska. That configuration is forecast to persist for at least the next several days and so may dominate the ice dynamics until freeze-over.

  The low is sitting right on the ice sanctuary up against the Canadian Arctic coast and might be expected to have more effect on that ice than the more distant high will. So that ice - which appears to be pretty much rubble with little mechanical resistance to dispersion - might be expected to spread out away from the low pressure centre, as is usual for lows in the Arctic.

  So will this cause an uptick in Arctic sea ice extent? Perhaps leading to an early minimum in that parameter?

  Meanwhile, the amount (volume) of the ice might continue to go down as the ice moves around and expands back into the Beaufort Sea. So we might end up with a low final volume - perhaps even challenging the 2012 record value for PIOMAS volume?

The interesting melt season continues!







« Last Edit: September 06, 2016, 05:50:44 AM by slow wing »

budmantis

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1219
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 32
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4612 on: September 06, 2016, 06:25:57 AM »
Thinnest Arctic sea ice ever recorded since 1979... Correct?

Check out the Piomas thread 12Patrick. Looking at what's left of the ice, its easy to assume that the ice is thinnest, but its not. If the arctic had a summer like 2007, there would have been a new record this year for sure. With low pressure dominating the arctic during peak insolation in June and July a second place finish speaks volumes on how fragile the remaining ice is.

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4288
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 271
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4613 on: September 06, 2016, 11:20:04 AM »
This news is a bit belated, but I'm currently watching live streaming of the European Space Agency's Arctic & Space Workshop in Helsinki:

http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Preparing_for_the_Future/Space_for_Earth/Arctic/Arctic_and_Space_Workshop

I even asked them a question via Twitter:

https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/773083417248403456

I have earned a "retweet" from ESA, but no answer as yet though!
« Last Edit: September 06, 2016, 11:44:24 AM by Jim Hunt »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4288
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 271
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4614 on: September 06, 2016, 12:20:58 PM »
One (paraphrased) snippet from the ESA Arctic workshop:

Quote
40-50% of global sea level rise now comes from the melting of land ice rather than thermal expansion
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4288
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 271
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4615 on: September 06, 2016, 02:05:15 PM »
A podcast in which Peter Wadhams, professor of ocean physics at Cambridge University,  debates Arctic sea ice decline with Dr David Schroeder from the Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling at Reading University and Jonathan Bamber, professor of physical geography at the University of Bristol:

https://www.theguardian.com/science/audio/2016/sep/06/the-fate-of-arctic-sea-ice-science-weekly-podcast
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4616 on: September 06, 2016, 03:57:45 PM »
Quote
A podcast in which Peter Wadhams, professor of ocean physics at Cambridge University/ quote]

It is clear that Dr. Wadham's does not "see" that his predictions do not have a "negative side" when they do not come true.  Partly....I think he should have in the past...and should in the future....give those "predictions" a "probability".

And this is coming from someone (me) who thinks much like Dr. Wadham's.....that most ice WILL be gone by 2020 in the Arctic (BUT....there is a PROBABILITY attached to that).  Just as I thought this year would be a "record low year".  There is ALWAYS a probability.....but I think that Wadham's many times does NOT attach a probability when he is talking about it....and that is what one of the other guests was trying to point out.

There are two risks:  (1) risk of being too complacent...as Wadham's points out, and (2) the risk of being too "alarmist"...which the guest pointed out.  Obviously...the "worst risk" is complacency...but I think both need to be taken into account when scientists discuss this.

 



FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

jai mitchell

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2036
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 76
  • Likes Given: 18
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4617 on: September 06, 2016, 05:06:00 PM »
(2) the risk of being too "alarmist"...which the guest pointed out. 

If I could, I would take everyone who thinks that this is any kind of real risk and transport them 40 years into the future, just for a few days.  As I have said before, the catastrophic impacts of global warming are assured, continuity of a globally integrated modern civilization is not, and that is what we are trying to save.

Truly any argument against being 'too' alarmist, in the face of an additional +3.0C warming over the next 50 years, is nothing but hubris, careerism and/or pure misanthropy.
Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

Acts5v29

  • New ice
  • Posts: 44
    • View Profile
    • worshipJehovah.org - not associated with any religion
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4618 on: September 06, 2016, 05:25:18 PM »

If I could, I would take everyone who thinks that this is any kind of real risk and transport them 40 years into the future, just for a few days. 

Alternatively, knowing what we do now, take them back to the year 2000.  If we had known in 2000 the changes which that decade would bring, we would have been terrified.

Sterks

  • Guest
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4619 on: September 06, 2016, 05:43:45 PM »
A heat wave is expected from the Atlantic to the North Pole within a week, with temperatures above zero degrees. Meanwhile, all the coldness flows towards the Pacific Ocean. What impact would this prediction have, if we remember that there are many gaps in the Arctic ice cap around the North Pole? And, will it begin to re-freeze the ice on the Pacific side?

Iceismylife

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 281
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4620 on: September 06, 2016, 06:03:32 PM »

If I could, I would take everyone who thinks that this is any kind of real risk and transport them 40 years into the future, just for a few days. 

Alternatively, knowing what we do now, take them back to the year 2000.  If we had known in 2000 the changes which that decade would bring, we would have been terrified.
When Ross ice shelf goes.  That is the one.  Or another of the big ice shelves in the Antarctic.  That date will scare the crap out of every.  After that 10 ft. (3m) in short order is happening.

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4621 on: September 06, 2016, 06:42:15 PM »
Quote
Truly any argument against being 'too' alarmist, in the face of an additional +3.0C warming over the next 50 years, is nothing but hubris, careerism and/or pure misanthropy.


I think you are "signing to the choir."  Everyone on this site....including me....thinks the risks are FAR GREATER to underestimating the impacts of global warming (as I previously stated).

What I think YOU....and Dr. Wadham's..... may NOT be thinking about....is the "ammunition" that is given to those in the "denier camp" and is USED by those in the denier camp when some of those predictions FALL SHORT.

I agree WHOLEHEARETEDLY with one of the guests in that podcast.....who said there is way too much attention to the "SHORT TERM" level of the Arctic ice sheet.  And.....like yourself....I am MUCH MORE worried about the longer term effects (which for me....means only 10 years or more).

It is a "balancing act".....because the "politics" of the situation means that scientists.....and people who FOLLOW SCIENTISTS......need to be able to sway the "people in the middle"......and psychologists have told us that scaring them is NOT working.  And promising things that don't come true....is looked at BY THEM as a scare tactic.

Just be aware that you....me.....and Dr. Wadhams', are all on the SAME SIDE....and have the same goals in mind.  What needs to be done is to sway those "in the middle" to "see what is happening and will happen" so that they will do something as soon as possible.

I personally think we are NOW in the midst of the "next push up" in temperatures globally....and that will help to change some folk's mind.  And I am talking about over the next 3-4 years....  We've already seen what has happened over just the last 3 years.


 
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Nick_Naylor

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 291
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4622 on: September 06, 2016, 07:13:32 PM »
Quote
Truly any argument against being 'too' alarmist, in the face of an additional +3.0C warming over the next 50 years, is nothing but hubris, careerism and/or pure misanthropy.


What I think YOU....and Dr. Wadham's..... may NOT be thinking about....is the "ammunition" that is given to those in the "denier camp" and is USED by those in the denier camp when some of those predictions FALL SHORT.


Agreed, and another way to look at this without acknowledging deniers, is that the general public is legitimately confused when excessively dire and highly publicized predictions don't come true. That confusion isn't helpful when considering whether any particular policy solution gets public support.

seaicesailor

  • Guest
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4623 on: September 06, 2016, 07:22:27 PM »
...
It's not clear whether BB will melt out this season or remain as a few raisins in the re-freeze pudding. The Beaufort appears to be very close to melt equilibrium.

The same analysis could be done for the Wrangel arm and Chukchi. There too the trend is off and on but perhaps still slightly down, again suggesting early September conditions close to a phase boundary.
...


Either this map is completely wrong or the Pacific half of the Arctic is far from being in "melt equilibrium". If for melt equilibrium is meant freezing point.  Very curious to see the evolution of SSTs as the air temperatures gradually drop (and the ocean gets calmer in some regions as Chukchi sea)
« Last Edit: September 06, 2016, 07:49:16 PM by seaicesailor »

effbeh

  • New ice
  • Posts: 19
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4624 on: September 06, 2016, 09:21:55 PM »
(2) the risk of being too "alarmist"...which the guest pointed out. 
If I could, I would take everyone who thinks that this is any kind of real risk and transport them 40 years into the future, just for a few days.  As I have said before, the catastrophic impacts of global warming are assured, continuity of a globally integrated modern civilization is not, and that is what we are trying to save.

It's breathtaking that we are talking about severe changes within a single generation now.  And it won't just stop at 2100.  Most likely, the planet will continue to warm and the sea levels will continue to rise.  For a very long time to come.   Most likely, more will change in two or three centuries then in millenia before. 

jai mitchell

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2036
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 76
  • Likes Given: 18
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4625 on: September 06, 2016, 09:29:54 PM »
Quote
Truly any argument against being 'too' alarmist, in the face of an additional +3.0C warming over the next 50 years, is nothing but hubris, careerism and/or pure misanthropy.

I agree WHOLEHEARETEDLY with one of the guests in that podcast.....who said there is way too much attention to the "SHORT TERM" level of the Arctic ice sheet.  And.....like yourself....I am MUCH MORE worried about the longer term effects (which for me....means only 10 years or more).

The speaker you are talking about framed his statment saying that there was not a whole lot of difference between an ice free arctic by 2017 vs 2075.  they are both bad, very bad.

however, from a perspective of prevention of total catastrophic failure of modern society, they actually DO have a VERY BIG difference.  This statement of his shows a complete lack of situational awareness to the nature of the timeline of earth system responses and the potential for human adaption and realistic mitigation pathways.

An ice-free arctic in 2017 or 2020 (or even 2025) once it happens, will completely justify Wadhams record of concern and will absolutely damn the body of scientists who downplayed these projections and continue to understate the earth system response in the climate models (even most recently predicting the first ice-free September around 2050.
Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

Gray-Wolf

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 795
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 49
  • Likes Given: 152
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4626 on: September 06, 2016, 11:39:36 PM »
Am I alone in noticing a change in the denier rhetoric regarding the Arctic? Over the last 18 months I am hearing more and more " wasn't the climate great the last time we were ice free? it'll be the saving of mankind......" ? Are they beginning to realise that this thing is happening and happening soon?
KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

Tigertown

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1650
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4627 on: September 07, 2016, 12:01:35 AM »
There seems to be more political leaders willing to open their eyes. Those in China, for example. I think many weather people, wherever they have stood in the past, are seeing the Northern Hemisphere jet stream weakening and know that this is directly related to the happenings in the Arctic. The blocking patterns that have resulted have caused devastating floods and out of season weather. The more people affected, the more notice is taken.

guygee

  • New ice
  • Posts: 16
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4628 on: September 07, 2016, 01:05:20 AM »
Am I alone in noticing a change in the denier rhetoric regarding the Arctic? Over the last 18 months I am hearing more and more " wasn't the climate great the last time we were ice free? it'll be the saving of mankind......" ? Are they beginning to realise that this thing is happening and happening soon?
In my experience that one is old, but persistent. I was stupid enough to pose that one to Donella Meadows in the 1980's after a lecture. I happened to be slogging through one of Budyko's early works at the time that seemed to suggest to me the inevitability of iceball earth. She dispatched me easily, with deserved contempt.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3019
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 185
  • Likes Given: 171
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4629 on: September 07, 2016, 01:12:14 AM »
Am I alone in noticing a change in the denier rhetoric regarding the Arctic? Over the last 18 months I am hearing more and more " wasn't the climate great the last time we were ice free? it'll be the saving of mankind......" ? Are they beginning to realise that this thing is happening and happening soon?
I agree, G-W; there is a subtle change starting to happen in the anti-AGW rhetoric, which revolves exactly around the whole idea that "it won't be so bad".  Brings to mind gas lighting - where someone consciously, slowly changes a story to something different in hopes that the change isn't noticed.

That stuff needs to be staked, as people doing that have no more clue about what they are saying than they do about what we're arguing with them over the Arctic.
This space for Rent.

Iceismylife

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 281
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4630 on: September 07, 2016, 01:29:05 AM »
"it won't be so bad". 
Understating.  Warmer is better.  Pick a direction. Warmer or colder. We can't keep it where it is now.  We need it substantial cooler to keep from having large sea level rise.  Or we need it warmer to combat a coming Younger Dryas. We are at the temp where Antarctica froze over and so the temp it should melt at.  We are past the temp where Greenland froze over. And so at this temp it should go as it is.

Villabolo

  • New ice
  • Posts: 53
    • View Profile
    • Global Warming Basics
  • Liked: 9
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4631 on: September 07, 2016, 03:56:53 AM »
Am I alone in noticing a change in the denier rhetoric regarding the Arctic? Over the last 18 months I am hearing more and more " wasn't the climate great the last time we were ice free? it'll be the saving of mankind......" ? Are they beginning to realise that this thing is happening and happening soon?
I agree, G-W; there is a subtle change starting to happen in the anti-AGW rhetoric, which revolves exactly around the whole idea that "it won't be so bad".  Brings to mind gas lighting - where someone consciously, slowly changes a story to something different in hopes that the change isn't noticed.

That stuff needs to be staked, as people doing that have no more clue about what they are saying than they do about what we're arguing with them over the Arctic.

I think it's happening semi-consciously since rationalizations can sometimes be subconscious. I remember asking Steve Goddard (Tony Heller) what he predicted for the Arctic sea ice in the next 15 years. He stated that the Arctic would have more, less or the same amount of ice as this year.

That showed me that they will adapt to anything.

Michael Hauber

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 841
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 46
  • Likes Given: 12
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4632 on: September 07, 2016, 04:10:08 AM »

Truly any argument against being 'too' alarmist, in the face of an additional +3.0C warming over the next 50 years, is nothing but hubris, careerism and/or pure misanthropy.

RCP 8.5 predicts warming of 1.4 to 2.6 relative to 1986-2005 temperature by 2065.

RCP 8.5 assumes that we continue to choose to do nothing to reduce emissions, and that there are no negative consequences of climate change significant enough to slow either population or economic growth.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17394
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 584
  • Likes Given: 222
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4633 on: September 07, 2016, 05:15:18 AM »
RCP 8.5 predicts warming of 1.4 to 2.6 relative to 1986-2005 temperature by 2065.

In AR5, RCP 8.5 assumes a most likely value for ECS of about 3.2C, while recent research indicates that ECS may well be closer to 4.6C.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

jai mitchell

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2036
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 76
  • Likes Given: 18
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4634 on: September 07, 2016, 06:40:30 AM »

Truly any argument against being 'too' alarmist, in the face of an additional +3.0C warming over the next 50 years, is nothing but hubris, careerism and/or pure misanthropy.

RCP 8.5 predicts warming of 1.4 to 2.6 relative to 1986-2005 temperature by 2065.

RCP 8.5 assumes that we continue to choose to do nothing to reduce emissions, and that there are no negative consequences of climate change significant enough to slow either population or economic growth.

they do not include the reduction in organic aerosols due to ocean acidification, the increase in GHG produced from the decomposition of permafrost, the increase of carbon emissions due to tropical peat desiccation and, last but not least, their Boreal forest collapse and arctic sea ice albedo feedback that is occurring 30+ years ahead of their models.
« Last Edit: September 07, 2016, 07:25:30 AM by jai mitchell »
Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

Tigertown

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1650
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4635 on: September 07, 2016, 06:50:15 AM »
Don't forget:  There are also early signs that the Amazon may be converting to a carbon source and no longer a sink.

S.Pansa

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 152
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 18
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4636 on: September 07, 2016, 08:08:09 AM »

Truly any argument against being 'too' alarmist, in the face of an additional +3.0C warming over the next 50 years, is nothing but hubris, careerism and/or pure misanthropy.

RCP 8.5 predicts warming of 1.4 to 2.6 relative to 1986-2005 temperature by 2065.

RCP 8.5 assumes that we continue to choose to do nothing to reduce emissions, and that there are no negative consequences of climate change significant enough to slow either population or economic growth.

But emission-reductions (and therefore aerosols-reductions) might not be all good news,  especially for the arctic, the sea ice & snow cover. According to Najafi et al (2015):
Quote
... We show that although increases in greenhouse-gas concentrations have driven the observed [Arctic] warming over the past century, approximately 60% of the greenhouse-gas-induced warming has been offset by the combined response to other anthropogenic forcing [ (which are dominated by aerosols)] ...

Faustian bargain and so ...

And to add another point to what Abrupt SLR and jai have said. As far as I know, CMIP5 models do severely underestimate the decline of spring snow cover in the northern hemisphere, even compared to RCP 8.5 (By the way, does anybody have more recent data/papers on this. Would be highly appreciated). See for instance Derksen et al (2012) (attached figure):


http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/store/10.1029/2012GL053387/asset/image_n/grl29612-fig-0003.png?v=1&s=c2fd963d8c787514a6da948ee78ecfc587917078

Caption"Simulated (“historical” experiment) and projected change (rcp85 scenario) in snow covered area in (a) April, (b) May (c) June over NH land areas. Snow covered area is normalized by the maximum area simulated by each model. Symbols show normalized values of SCE from the NOAA snow chart CDR. (d) June results with model variability increased by a factor of 2.18 to match the observed variability in SCE over the NOAA satellite record."

That seems pretty important to me, as Rob Dekker has shown here and on the blog how important spring snow cover extent is for the sea ice extent in fall.

PS: But I fear that is off topic in this thread
« Last Edit: September 07, 2016, 09:11:48 AM by S.Pansa »

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 7146
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 701
  • Likes Given: 461
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4637 on: September 07, 2016, 08:15:47 AM »
I expected all the ice in the Wrangel Arm to melt out, but it looks like it is going to be saved by the weather. There's not much flashing going on anymore, and the zone of open water towards the pole has been shifted to the east (left on the animation). Given the weather forecast I'd say we're going to hit the minimum real soon.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Ninebelowzero

  • New ice
  • Posts: 86
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4638 on: September 07, 2016, 08:53:33 AM »
The amount of 100% ice cover for the 6th looks remarkably small.

Rob Dekker

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2317
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 99
  • Likes Given: 111
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4639 on: September 07, 2016, 09:14:17 AM »
I expected all the ice in the Wrangel Arm to melt out, but it looks like it is going to be saved by the weather. There's not much flashing going on anymore, and the zone of open water towards the pole has been shifted to the east (left on the animation). Given the weather forecast I'd say we're going to hit the minimum real soon.

I don't know, Neven.
There is an aweful lot of low-concentration ice at (relatively) low latitudes, such as in the Wrangel arm and the Laptev arm, that will continue to melt while freezing set in starting from the NP.

Ice concentration is lower now than it was even in 2012.

I expect a late minimum because of that.
This is our planet. This is our time.
Let's not waste either.

greatdying2

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 574
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4640 on: September 07, 2016, 09:32:48 AM »
Thinnest Arctic sea ice ever recorded since 1979... Correct?

Check out the Piomas thread 12Patrick. Looking at what's left of the ice, its easy to assume that the ice is thinnest, but its not. If the arctic had a summer like 2007, there would have been a new record this year for sure. With low pressure dominating the arctic during peak insolation in June and July a second place finish speaks volumes on how fragile the remaining ice is.

My take home from recent PIOMAS posts is that it is *not* a good measure estimator of current ice thickness.
« Last Edit: September 07, 2016, 09:41:32 AM by greatdying2 »
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

Peter Ellis

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 617
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 35
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4641 on: September 07, 2016, 10:08:06 AM »
I think it's happening semi-consciously since rationalizations can sometimes be subconscious. I remember asking Steve Goddard (Tony Heller) what he predicted for the Arctic sea ice in the next 15 years. He stated that the Arctic would have more, less or the same amount of ice as this year.

That showed me that they will adapt to anything.
No,that was him making fun of you.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3019
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 185
  • Likes Given: 171
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4642 on: September 07, 2016, 10:56:12 AM »
I expected all the ice in the Wrangel Arm to melt out, but it looks like it is going to be saved by the weather. There's not much flashing going on anymore, and the zone of open water towards the pole has been shifted to the east (left on the animation). Given the weather forecast I'd say we're going to hit the minimum real soon.

I don't know, Neven.
There is an aweful lot of low-concentration ice at (relatively) low latitudes, such as in the Wrangel arm and the Laptev arm, that will continue to melt while freezing set in starting from the NP.

Ice concentration is lower now than it was even in 2012.

I expect a late minimum because of that.
There's also an awful lot of low extent and open water well north of 80, so I think with the return of colder temperatures we may see gains there.  I'm tending to agree with Neven.

That said, once that "easy" ice returns, the rest of the refreeze season may not go as smoothly with the huge amount of heat in the peripheral seas.
This space for Rent.

iceman

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 285
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4643 on: September 07, 2016, 11:17:59 AM »
   ... Given the weather forecast I'd say we're going to hit the minimum real soon.
   ....
I expect a late minimum because of that.

You are both right!  Main argument in favor of a late minimum is the anomalous heat in the water and its prolonged effect on the Wrangel Arm.  For an early minimum there are several, including low ice in the Greenland Sea and the drop in compaction and heat advection from outside the Arctic.
     For the sake of argument I'll guess that both 8th and 22nd Sept will be near the extent low, and within a fraction of a percent of each other.
« Last Edit: September 07, 2016, 11:34:41 AM by iceman »

greatdying2

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 574
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4644 on: September 07, 2016, 11:26:52 AM »
A podcast in which Peter Wadhams, professor of ocean physics at Cambridge University,  debates Arctic sea ice decline with Dr David Schroeder from the Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling at Reading University and Jonathan Bamber, professor of physical geography at the University of Bristol:

https://www.theguardian.com/science/audio/2016/sep/06/the-fate-of-arctic-sea-ice-science-weekly-podcast
Thanks, good listening.

The claim that using models is "more scientific" than fitting data is totally wrong-headed, but I agree that alarmist claims if false are damaging.
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

Adam Ash

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 305
    • View Profile
    • The 100 metre line
  • Liked: 8
  • Likes Given: 20
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4645 on: September 07, 2016, 12:23:56 PM »
I wonder what combination of wind and current is holding both the Wrangle Arm and the remnants of BigBlock in position.  Looking at the ice drift charts over the last few weeks these pixels of ice should have been shoved miles away by now, yet they persist in situ, as if independent of what goes on beneath and above.  They show no discernible reaction at all to the expected surface currents and Coriolis forces.

Reminds me of a cloud in a standing wave over a ridge.  Same cloud, but ever-changing content.

Is ice in fact being exported with the drift and lost, only to be replaced at the same location?  Is there some two-way flash/unflash going on which is faster than can be perceived by our pedestrian 24-hourly re-observation rate?  Odd, methinks.

JayW

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 500
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 129
  • Likes Given: 174
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4646 on: September 07, 2016, 12:33:18 PM »
"To defy the laws of tradition, is a crusade only of the brave" - Les Claypool

Tigertown

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1650
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4647 on: September 07, 2016, 12:52:05 PM »
There is still a huge area of MYI trying to to turn the corner of NE Greenland. If you look on polar view you can see a big shear (or other term that some prefer). If this much goes south and does manage to melt, even if too late to lower the final extent it is going to really hurt the amount of MYI left, which doesn't look great anyway.
I can't get a picture of polar view to look right , but it really shows this better.


Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4288
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 271
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4648 on: September 07, 2016, 01:24:07 PM »
A set of video recordings of yesterday's ESA Arctic workshop are now available via LiveStream

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1091
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 89
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4649 on: September 07, 2016, 01:27:58 PM »
I'm with Neven.  I stated a while ago that I didn't think the ESS would totally melt out because the ice was not the same as 2012 where it had, on the overheads, reached the consistency of smoke in many areas.

In my limited viewing experience, excess heat, when the cold comes down, tends to manifest itself in large unexpected polynya's rather than impacting the growing extent.

I still bet on an early extent min, soon, followed by bottom melt based impacts to the end of the third week in September.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein