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slow wing

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4700 on: September 08, 2016, 01:59:09 PM »
  The Terra satellite images show that the ice around the North Pole is pretty much rubble at the moment.

  The ice is still closely packed right at the Pole but degenerates with distance to regions with gaps of open water between individual floes, progressively and on a distance scale of about 50 km when looking to the Eastern side of the North Pole.

A-Team

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4701 on: September 08, 2016, 03:14:51 PM »
Quote
could you reproduce the main 2012-2015 graphi, just the first 5 maps?  I like the timing but hold the last image for 3X longer than the previous 4 slides.
Sure. (Folks are encouraged to just download images, delete unwanted frames, change timing, crop, resize etc and re-post as needed.)

The second animation holds the Wrangel arm of the 7th fixed (left side) for easier comparison to 31 Aug to 07 Sep 2016.

The third animation shows the last four years from Sept 5th out to Sep 30th. 2012 UL (upper left), 2013 UR, 2014 LL, 2015 LR. While 2016 is obviously not available out to the end of the month, it may look rather similar to today.

The fourth animation is whole-Arctic from 31 Aug to 07 Sept with the most notable features bing  bulk motion in the Chukchi, flashing or possible melt-out in the Wrangel arm, and continuing garlic press of very thick ice into the CAA.
« Last Edit: September 08, 2016, 03:23:02 PM by A-Team »

Kethern

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4702 on: September 08, 2016, 03:27:11 PM »
Thank you! That helps a lot. Remember everybody,  that is a giant section of reserve(sanctuary) 
MYI going down.
The Bastion has fallen.

Larger view of the region to put it all in context.  Total area in view is probably about 800,000KM2.

[Edit:  The only thing saving it right now is the weather has wind pushing in from the SSE over most of the next week.  If another polar low sets up, it will be on its way out.]

You mean like this:

(Note long range weather forecasts have been known to cause undue stress and/or disappointment.  Take dose of salt as needed to prevent anxiety or excessive enthusiasm.)

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4703 on: September 08, 2016, 03:39:48 PM »

It seems to me that obsessing over these numbers is missing the point. It's like watching an animal bleeding to death and judging it's health by the size of the pool of blood.

No disrespect to slow wing's analysis, but I do agree with what epiphyte is saying. In a way, it feels like we're pathologists performing an autopsy.
[/quote]

The thread is titled "The 2016 melting season" for a reason. The discussion should focus on the progress of it and help us to better understand melt in general. The comments in question are spot on.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4704 on: September 08, 2016, 03:44:53 PM »
An interesting update from the NSIDC, especially the discussion of wave heights in the Arctic: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2016/09/arctic-sea-ice-nears-its-minimum-extent-for-the-year/

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4705 on: September 08, 2016, 04:26:51 PM »
From Bremen maps, we can see that Wrangel arm is no more!  ;D The question is how much more it will be able to melt away before refreezing starts? In any case, this should be the explanation to the 120K drop yesterday. Or am I wrong?

NEVEN: time to make a new view of the broken Wrangel arm ;)

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4706 on: September 08, 2016, 04:36:04 PM »
You can see a lot today on Worldview.


Buddy

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4707 on: September 08, 2016, 05:02:53 PM »
Quote
You can see a lot today on Worldview.

That is some CRAPPY looking ice...
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jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4708 on: September 08, 2016, 05:12:26 PM »
I've heard plenty of deniers claim that in nearly every case the new model runs shows increasingly slower impacts in scope, timing and scale.

I am talking about the IPCC series of model projections.  what the hell are you talking about???
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timallard

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4709 on: September 08, 2016, 05:12:47 PM »
Quote
You can see a lot today on Worldview.

That is some CRAPPY looking ice...
Yeah, it's a new type, was cored by APL-UW last fall the official name is "rotten ice", full of holes, channels, dirt & algae barely strong enough to core.
-tom

Ninebelowzero

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4710 on: September 08, 2016, 05:15:53 PM »
Quote
You can see a lot today on Worldview.

That is some CRAPPY looking ice...


The correct term would be "mullered ice"   8)

Buddy

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4711 on: September 08, 2016, 05:29:46 PM »
Between the ice getting worse....and worse...and worse;  the temperatures going higher....and higher...and higher; the oceans getting higher...and higher...and higher:   The deniers really are "running out of room to hide."

And we are getting pretty damn close to a time when they are going to be "called out" by John Q Public (not JUST the scientists and the activists).

The deniers can continue to say that 2 + 2 = 3.......but eventually (and by eventually I mean SOON).....most people are going to know they are FOS (a scientific acronym for Full Of Shit:).

It will be interesting enough to see how the melt season ends up over the coming couple of weeks....but the global temperatures in coming months will also be interesting.

We ARE in uncharted waters.....and more "unusual" things are in our future in coming months and years.



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jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4712 on: September 08, 2016, 05:47:35 PM »
Thanks A-Team that is really helpful.  What is also striking to me is the amount of mass flush through the CAA this season.  It will be very interesting to see how this fractured CAB will react to the storms, It seems that there will be increased freeze very soon in the northern portion but if this flush continues or even increases significantly due to the high winds, it could lead to a balance in mass overall, stalling the refreeze.
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Neven

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4713 on: September 08, 2016, 06:38:18 PM »
I don't know, Neven.
There is an aweful lot of low-concentration ice at (relatively) low latitudes, such as in the Wrangel arm and the Laptev arm, that will continue to melt while freezing set in starting from the NP.

Ice concentration is lower now than it was even in 2012.

I expect a late minimum because of that.

You may be right, Rob, if only for the fact that you have been more right about this melting season than I have.

From Bremen maps, we can see that Wrangel arm is no more!  ;D The question is how much more it will be able to melt away before refreezing starts? In any case, this should be the explanation to the 120K drop yesterday. Or am I wrong?

NEVEN: time to make a new view of the broken Wrangel arm ;)

Indeed, some more flashing, after all, and full detachment now from the shoulder:
Compare, compare, compare

johnm33

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4714 on: September 08, 2016, 07:16:48 PM »
Looking at Topaz and Nullschool, not to mention all the animations here, it looks like the Atlantic waters falling into Nansen are moving round to Makarov where they cause enough distubance to create surface melt. The pressure of this inflow is preventing some of the Beaufort gyre waters moving north and these are breaking over the Northwind ridge and mixing with waters of a very different energetic signature, creating those huge whorls more usually seen off the n/e coast of Greenland, or the east coast of the USA. The open water pointing towards the pole was following the Canadian Basin side of the Lomonosov ridge quite closely til' the wind changed, just as the Wrangel arm seemed to be above Mendeleyev ridge.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4715 on: September 08, 2016, 11:42:16 PM »
With clear skies over Wrangel island we can see the evolution of the Wrangel arm southernmost tip in two MODIS shots from September 4 to September 8 (contrast enhanced). There is a strong wind-driven drift (green line) evident by the translation of the floe circled, along many others.
However the agitation in this sea is fascinating. See the current and eddies that do not follow the general drift. The two red arrows closest to Wrangel ice indicate a dent formed by northward current during these four days. This dent has been seen forming, vanishing, and then reappearing since July.
Also see the three eddies that penetrate from open water in direction to the ice core. Four days later the extent around them is very much reduced.
These eddies in general are stretching and then folding the ice-covered area against the open water many times. This mixing lets the warm water reach and transfer heat to the ice continuously.
As soon as this stirring loses strength (when?) or warm water cools down, the overall melting will cease. But the DMI SST maps do not show much cooling yet.
« Last Edit: September 08, 2016, 11:57:31 PM by seaicesailor »

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4716 on: September 09, 2016, 12:19:02 AM »
There is some comparatively warm water in the general area. A little stirring is all that's required.


Michael J

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4717 on: September 09, 2016, 01:31:49 AM »
Between the ice getting worse....and worse...and worse;  the temperatures going higher....and higher...and higher; the oceans getting higher...and higher...and higher:   The deniers really are "running out of room to hide."

And we are getting pretty damn close to a time when they are going to be "called out" by John Q Public (not JUST the scientists and the activists).

The deniers can continue to say that 2 + 2 = 3.......but eventually (and by eventually I mean SOON).....most people are going to know they are FOS (a scientific acronym for Full Of Shit:).

It will be interesting enough to see how the melt season ends up over the coming couple of weeks....but the global temperatures in coming months will also be interesting.

We ARE in uncharted waters.....and more "unusual" things are in our future in coming months and years.
The latest from the denialists that I am seeing about the arctic is that thousands of years ago that the arctic was quite often ice-free and that we are just coming down from an unusually cold period. The second thing I'm seeing is that they are doing what they did with 1998 temperatures and draw a line from 2007 and say that there is no downward trend in extent, just natural variability.

6roucho

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4718 on: September 09, 2016, 02:13:13 AM »
The latest from the denialists that I am seeing about the arctic is that thousands of years ago that the arctic was quite often ice-free and that we are just coming down from an unusually cold period. The second thing I'm seeing is that they are doing what they did with 1998 temperatures and draw a line from 2007 and say that there is no downward trend in extent, just natural variability.
The strange way in which denier theory changes to accomodate observations is like a parody of the scientific method.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4719 on: September 09, 2016, 04:35:00 AM »
Whoa, Neven, there's a shipload of the thickest multi-year ice flowing out of the Central Arctic through the CAA and melting in the main channel. A lesser amount is flowing through the Nares. Meanwhile on the Atlantic side, warm Atlantic water is flowing into the Arctic replacing the relatively fresh water that is lost through the CAA channels.

That GIF is pretty scary.

Rob Dekker

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4720 on: September 09, 2016, 07:50:51 AM »
I don't know, Neven.
There is an aweful lot of low-concentration ice at (relatively) low latitudes, such as in the Wrangel arm and the Laptev arm, that will continue to melt while freezing set in starting from the NP.

Ice concentration is lower now than it was even in 2012.

I expect a late minimum because of that.

You may be right, Rob, if only for the fact that you have been more right about this melting season than I have.

I don't know about that, Neven.
At least we agree on two aspects :

1) At the start of the melting season, 2016 was set-up to become a new record year, and
2) 2016 dodged a bullet, because of serious cyclone activity in the Arctic during June and July.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/comp.pl?var=Geopotential+Height&level=1000mb&mon1=5&mon2=6&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&ipos%5B1%5D=&ipos%5B2%5D=&ineg%5B1%5D=&ineg%5B2%5D=&timefile0=&tstype=0&timefile1=&value=&typeval=2&compval=1&lag=0&labelc=Color&labels=Shaded&type=2&scale=200&labelcon=1&switch=0&cint=&lowr=&highr=&proj=Custom&xlat1=60&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&custproj=Northern+Hemisphere+Polar+Stereographic&level1=1000mb&level2=10mb&Submit=Create+Plot

That is seriously low pressure (and accompanied low temperature), lower even than the 2013 season.

That put the brakes on the season, and that is why 2016 did not end up as a catastrophe.

The second thing we learned is that Arctic amplification because of the albedo effect REALLY works, and is quantifiable. The accumulated heat due to low land snow cover and low ice area DOES come back later in the season. With data from the end of June, the statistics are really strong on land snow cover, ice concentration and ice "area" variable as a predictor for September sea ice extent

http://s1272.photobucket.com/user/RobDekker/media/JunePredict_zpsquedrtdc.png.html?o=6

All in all, this suggests that summer weather matters, but albedo effect (amplifying global warming) is equally strong, and may determine the final outcome with better accuracy than any other melting momentum metric.
« Last Edit: September 09, 2016, 08:27:45 AM by Rob Dekker »
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georged

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4721 on: September 09, 2016, 10:42:39 AM »
There's a huge amount of transport occurring there, which is extremely concerning. I would have expected it to have slowed by this point.

Jim Hunt

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SHOCK NEWS!!!
« Reply #4722 on: September 09, 2016, 11:30:43 AM »
"Malice in Blunderland" has just posted an accurate image of the state of the sea ice near the North Pole! Here it is:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/09/could-northabout-sail-to-the-north-pole/#Sep-09
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Sterks

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4723 on: September 09, 2016, 01:46:51 PM »
A heat wave is expected from the Atlantic to the North Pole within a week, with temperatures above zero degrees. Meanwhile, all the coldness flows towards the Pacific Ocean. What impact would this prediction have, if we remember that there are many gaps in the Arctic ice cap around the North Pole? And, will it begin to re-freeze the ice on the Pacific side?

My apologies for quoting myself. This is an analysis of 5-day temperature average in the Arctic ocean from cci-reanalyser.
I find it amusing that the average temperatures in many parts of the Arctic are presented above zero degrees, but I still hear talking about the beginning of the freezing season. Only we find displayed really negative temperatures are at the innermost part of the Arctic ice, and they are not too low in comparison with the climatology (anomalies). Doesn't it seem five days too early to talk about end of the melting season, at least? If not, I would appreciate an alternative perspective :)

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4724 on: September 09, 2016, 01:53:48 PM »
Jim,

I appreciate the 090816 image, may I reuse in a course I am teaching next week - with appropriate attribution?

A4R

A-Team

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4725 on: September 09, 2016, 02:29:30 PM »
Attribution is already embedded in WorldView imagery, it is a public resource open to anyone. The version below has had a round of cloud removal but that ImageJ tool too has been made open source. It needs a click for full size. Better just to give the link to the set up environment, http://go.nasa.gov/2cqmetc

The first animation below shows hycom's view of the last ten days and what may be coming. The thickness map is used as it has a better palette than their sea ice concentration.

The second and third animation emphasize regions of contrasting sea ice concentration provided by the large format AMSR2 3.1k maps of the previous eight days.
« Last Edit: September 09, 2016, 02:37:00 PM by A-Team »

CameraMan

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4726 on: September 09, 2016, 02:30:54 PM »
Doesn't it seem five days too early to talk about end of the melting season, at least?

I agree.  I think we'll see localized freezing, but haven't reached minimum yet. Melting is still going on, and with the current ice distribution and SSTs, melt may win out for another week.

A-Team

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4727 on: September 09, 2016, 03:04:29 PM »
The map below of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (which needs a click to display at size) allows matching of major ice export channels with hycom's ice thicknesses (and so volumes).

The CAB ice being exported through M'Clure Strait appears mostly 2.25 m thick with thicker 3-4 m ice coming later in the week (according to their model). That through Ballantyne Strait is thicker but less in content, while Perry Channel is not seeing much through-put, whereas Prince Gustaf west of Ellef Ringnes is receiving some very thick ice and a lot of it.

The Lincoln Sea is portrayed as almost solid 4.5 m ice but not currently moving through Nares Strait. The Fram, on the east side of Greenland, continues to be a bit ambiguous, with the distinction between little export vs lots of quickly melted export benefiting from higher resolution floe tracking.

As noted many times on the forums, export of old thick ice to warmer waters spares the Arctic Ocean quite a bit of melting thermodynamics, as well as affecting the multi-year mix and distribution for the following year.

« Last Edit: September 09, 2016, 03:13:19 PM by A-Team »

dnem

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4728 on: September 09, 2016, 04:38:09 PM »
A-Team, your posts are beautifully done and extremely informative.  Thank you for your remarkable contributions here!

Iceismylife

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Re: SHOCK NEWS!!!
« Reply #4729 on: September 09, 2016, 05:33:40 PM »
"Malice in Blunderland"...
I think "Malice in Blenderland" work as good.

Considering what ha happened to the ice this year.

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4730 on: September 09, 2016, 05:46:08 PM »
What he said A-Team ^^^

I can verify from eosdis worldview that the thick floes of sea ice 1/2 way down the Nansen Sound (between Axel Heiberg and Ellesmere Islands) moved an average of 5 miles per day for the 4 days between Aug 5th and Aug 8th south toward warmer seas.




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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4731 on: September 09, 2016, 10:03:52 PM »
Jim,

I appreciate the 090816 image, may I reuse in a course I am teaching next week - with appropriate attribution?

A4R

By all means, but I do not recommend attributing it to Heller/Goddard's original article, unless of course your course is about "skepticism". As A-Team points out, I don't claim copyright on the image! However if it suits your purposes feel free to mention either:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/09/could-northabout-sail-to-the-north-pole/#Sep-09

or an alternate version at:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/summer-2016-images/#NorthPole
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4732 on: September 09, 2016, 11:17:04 PM »
Scribbler's Blog mentioned the forecasted heatwave for the Arctic over the next few days.

He also had a very familiar looking animation, giving credit to Neven for constructing it, and referred to the loss of ice through the CAA.

jdallen

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4733 on: September 10, 2016, 03:23:11 AM »
The map below of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (which needs a click to display at size) allows matching of major ice export channels with hycom's ice thicknesses (and so volumes).

The CAB ice being exported through M'Clure Strait appears mostly 2.25 m thick with thicker 3-4 m ice coming later in the week (according to their model). That through Ballantyne Strait is thicker but less in content, while Perry Channel is not seeing much through-put, whereas Prince Gustaf west of Ellef Ringnes is receiving some very thick ice and a lot of it.

The CAA "Garlic Press" as you describe it (I really like the metaphor) really concerns me.

I think it's a new phenomenon, enabled by the break down in the coherence of the pack.  While I've only been on the forums for three years and there's a lot I may have missed, it hasn't been discussed previously. 

The CAA/NW Passage is still very hot - as made evident by the extreme southern edges of the ice pushed into it disappearing when it reaches the interior channels.  This may become very relevant next spring.
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ghoti

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4734 on: September 10, 2016, 04:27:52 AM »
Not really new. That's why the WWF identifies the area as "The Last Ice". As ice in the CAA melts out the northern parts normally get refilled as the main pack gets pushed south.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4735 on: September 10, 2016, 05:00:51 AM »
Simply using Worldview and observing the first half of September from 2012-2015, I don't see anything near the volume of ice that has and is flushing through the CAA passages. Mostly see loose floes and debris washing south in no certain orderly pattern for those years. That's just a visual inspection but I think it's clear enough to say this is an outstanding happening for this season.
 That is as far back as I care to look, so I cannot say it is unprecedented with complete certainty. If someone else wants to check, more power to them.

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4736 on: September 10, 2016, 05:40:40 AM »
It is true, the sheer volume of multi-year multi-meter thick ice through the CAA is unprecedented and is a testimony to the severely fractured nature of the multi-year ice on the northern border of Canada.  This will be a year for many many new papers on the study of abnormal warm winters, water vapor intrusion from ENSO/AO during the winter months, the impacts on ice structure, the potential for rapid CAB breakup in earlier timeframes and the potential for increased 'melt momentum' and sea ice mobility and export under greater storm effects with rapidly disbursing, fractured ice.
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4737 on: September 10, 2016, 07:08:01 AM »
Seems like some refreezing has started in the Pacific side of the CAB. I think we can forget the prospect of going below 4 Mn km2 and turn our eyes to the refreezing season 2016/2017 which should be better than last year.

And we also will have an early minimum this year.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4738 on: September 10, 2016, 08:40:07 AM »
Seems like some refreezing has started in the Pacific side of the CAB. I think we can forget the prospect of going below 4 Mn km2 and turn our eyes to the refreezing season 2016/2017 which should be better than last year.

And we also will have an early minimum this year.
It seems so. And all be said, the HYCOM animations brought by A-Team were predicting a new layer of ice exactly there awfully well, apart from the pack dispersion.

Detached Wrangel ice still seems losing some extent.

DMI SST map is still showing a blob of bright red precisely where it is refreezing fastest now. Not reliable there.

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4739 on: September 10, 2016, 10:06:18 AM »
Re the 'garlic press' - OB14 is currently heading down through McClure Strait with the ice.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4740 on: September 10, 2016, 03:11:05 PM »
BREAKING NEWs: NSIDC 5 day average is now below 2007!! Todays value at 4,137 Mn km2 means that the 5 day average is down to 4,1456 Mn km2 which superseeds 2007 minimum at 4,154 Mn km2!!!

Crossposting from my post in the IJIS thread.

Watching_from_Canberra

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4741 on: September 10, 2016, 04:07:14 PM »
Attached is an animated gif showing the ice movement and break-up North of Greenland and Ellesmere Island over the last week.  The frames of the gif are 3 September to 9 September (and back). Thanks to Jim Hunt who noted that I needed to reduce it to 700px width for the animation to work.  It's less detailed, but the effect is still noticeable.  Warning: 2.1Mb gif.

Cate

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4742 on: September 10, 2016, 04:31:54 PM »
Re Watching in Canberra's animation of the ice on Greenland's north coast:

New ice-watcher seeking context here. Is this kind of fracturing and movement normal/expected, does it always happen but not to this extent, is this something new, does it happen occasionally, did it happen in 2007/2012, etc?

Andreas T

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4743 on: September 10, 2016, 06:34:26 PM »
have a look at this NOAA animation
which covers almost 40 years. There is always movement, summer and winter. Quantifying it is more difficult. One reason these fractures can be seen is that the ice pack in this are is starting to stick (freeze) together whereas it was more flowing as individual floes in the summer.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4744 on: September 10, 2016, 07:07:54 PM »
Seems like some refreezing has started in the Pacific side of the CAB. I think we can forget the prospect of going below 4 Mn km2 and turn our eyes to the refreezing season 2016/2017 which should be better than last year.

And we also will have an early minimum this year.
It seems so. And all be said, the HYCOM animations brought by A-Team were predicting a new layer of ice exactly there awfully well, apart from the pack dispersion.

can't resist and would take on any bet that we go below 4.0 let's see :-)
Detached Wrangel ice still seems losing some extent.

DMI SST map is still showing a blob of bright red precisely where it is refreezing fastest now. Not reliable there.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4745 on: September 11, 2016, 02:23:28 AM »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

slow wing

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4746 on: September 11, 2016, 04:56:59 AM »
The U. Bremen sea ice map is showing a second consecutive day of significant refreeze in the Arctic.

ORIGINAL: With the current weather pattern expected to persist for at least the next couple of days, a reversal is presumably unlikely and the refreeze will take hold.

EDIT: should add a big caveat. On taking a closer look, Nullschool is showing strong winds now in key refreeze areas of the past two days. See attachments 2 to 4, showing the winds & temperatures at 'points of interest' 1 and 2 - with particularly strong winds at point 1, which is close to the centre of a low pressure system.

Is the refreeze stable in such strong winds and with temperatures at only around -3oC? I wouldn't have thought so. Also, some of the ice appearing around points 1 and 2 is likely to be from the wind pushing around existing ice, rather than new ice. So perhaps best if I leave it with the observed &/or reconstructed data shown in the figures below and 'wait and see' what happens.   :) 
« Last Edit: September 11, 2016, 07:34:57 AM by slow wing »

Kate

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4747 on: September 11, 2016, 11:47:21 AM »
Is the green tint on the RHS algae? Is it that warm and fresh?


seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4748 on: September 11, 2016, 11:50:15 AM »
Is the green tint on the RHS algae? Is it that warm and fresh?
That is a layer of new ice

Adam Ash

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4749 on: September 11, 2016, 12:19:37 PM »
Oden at the North Pole at the end of August:

Doesn't that photo say it all, really? 
What looks like (left) from up there looks like (right) from down there.

What ever it is we have been so worried about happening, has happened.  I guess all we can do is move on to building the lifeboats and moving to higher ground to live in there deep storm-proof shelters.