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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4750 on: September 11, 2016, 01:15:11 PM »
Jim Hunt & Co: I checked the dates for Oden's position and it seems to me that it was at and around the North Pole about August 20-22. The tweet was out at August 28 so my question is whether they actually was at the exact point 90oN at the moment the pic was taken?

Sorry if I seem to be stupid but I think this is such an important thing that we have to be 100% sure that they actually were at the North Pole. They may have found it easier to just post "North Pole" rather than the exact coordinates.

Best, LMV

6roucho

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4751 on: September 11, 2016, 01:38:55 PM »
Jim Hunt & Co: I checked the dates for Oden's position and it seems to me that it was at and around the North Pole about August 20-22. The tweet was out at August 28 so my question is whether they actually was at the exact point 90oN at the moment the pic was taken?

Sorry if I seem to be stupid but I think this is such an important thing that we have to be 100% sure that they actually were at the North Pole. They may have found it easier to just post "North Pole" rather than the exact coordinates.

Best, LMV
Clearly true, but a few points really don't matter. It's a new [and moving] paradigm.

Hefaistos

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4752 on: September 11, 2016, 01:47:35 PM »
Hello all,
been lurking here for a while, but in order to reply to the Lord's question, I thought I'd register.
Anyway, the exact position was N 89° 59,998´ W 046° 40,558´. Which means the ship's GPS antenna was a couple of meters from the geographical North Pole.
This is from the captain's log, in Swedish: "På söndags förmiddag den 21 augusti så manövrerades Oden in så nära Nordpolen det bara gick att komma, (krävs precision då det faktiskt är svårare än man kan tro, man glider så lätta söderut ifrån den) men så tillslut klockan 11:03 UTC var vi som närmast N 89° 59,998´ W 046° 40,558´ vilket alltså betyder att själva geografiska Nordpolen endast var någon meter ifrån vår GPS-antenn."

http://polarforskningsportalen.se/arktis/expeditioner/arctic-ocean-2016/bloggar/vi-har-natt-nordpolen

You can also see some more photos from the NP:
http://www.sjofartsverket.se/pages/106718/Veckobrev%20fr%c3%a5n%20Isbrytaren%20Oden%202016-08-23.pdf

After reaching the North Pole, they've gone South a bit.

Hefaistos

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4753 on: September 11, 2016, 02:02:07 PM »
Oden is on a joint scientific NP expedition together with Canada's CCGS Louis S St. Laurent.
Here's the Canadian version of the NP event:

http://www.science.gc.ca/default.asp?lang=En&n=5666A052-1&offset=7&toc=show

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4754 on: September 11, 2016, 02:10:13 PM »
Just eyeballing everything, I would say a lot of ice is still being lost through melt and export. It may not appear so,with extent creeping back up, but I think the volume being lost right now is outracing the gain yet still. The 100 percent concentration ice is shrinking by the day.

budmantis

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4755 on: September 11, 2016, 02:21:31 PM »
After reaching the North Pole, they've gone South a bit.

Welcome Hefaistos! The last line of your post appealed to my dry sense of humor.

Sleepy

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4756 on: September 11, 2016, 02:29:33 PM »
Sorry if I seem to be stupid but I think this is such an important thing that we have to be 100% sure that they actually were at the North Pole. They may have found it easier to just post "North Pole" rather than the exact coordinates.

Best, LMV
Worth adding to Hefaistos post above, it was the eight time Oden visited the pole. Oden was the first non nuclear ship to reach it in 1991, then also 1996, 2001, 2004, 2005, 2009 and 2012.

prokaryotes

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4757 on: September 11, 2016, 02:48:09 PM »
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Cate

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4758 on: September 11, 2016, 03:38:25 PM »
This is the NW Passage, but surely of note here:

Northabout has clear sailing through Bellot Strait, 10 Sept 2016.

"Not enough ice for a G&T."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_rH48q5YkU&feature=youtu.be

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4759 on: September 11, 2016, 04:39:00 PM »

After reaching the North Pole, they've gone South a bit.

Which is, of course, the only way they could go.  :)

mati

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4760 on: September 11, 2016, 05:08:12 PM »
If you march 10 m. south, 10 m west, 10 m north
and
arrive from whence you started....

what colour is the bear?

and so it goes

Hans

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4761 on: September 11, 2016, 05:23:47 PM »
Oden is on a joint scientific NP expedition together with Canada's CCGS Louis S St. Laurent.
Here's the Canadian version of the NP event:

http://www.science.gc.ca/default.asp?lang=En&n=5666A052-1&offset=7&toc=show

From the blog Hefaistos mentioned:
Quote
.... and finally “We’re at the top of the world!” as the ship’s horn blasted to announce our arrival. As we sailed three times around the world :) to find hard ice :(, the decks filled with .....

(smileys inserted by me)

Andreas T

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4762 on: September 11, 2016, 05:43:41 PM »
another blog by one of the researchers on Oden https://runaskarbo.wordpress.com/
has this photo of things to do when you are at the North Pole:
I wonder whether Nansen thought of bringing deckchairs?

This was back in August, temperatures now are probably less suited for that sort of thing.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4763 on: September 11, 2016, 06:09:43 PM »
I wonder whether Nansen thought of bringing deckchairs?

Santa's secret summer swimming pool revisited again!

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2014/09/santas-secret-summer-swimming-pool-revisited/

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4764 on: September 11, 2016, 06:13:05 PM »
"Not enough ice for a G&T."

Shouldn't that be a V&T, in Cap'n Nikolay's case at the very least? Or maybe just iced V?
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

realitybytes

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4765 on: September 11, 2016, 07:12:08 PM »
If you march 10 m. south, 10 m west, 10 m north
and
arrive from whence you started....

what colour is the bear?
Black, actually!
[Edit: although I've known for awhile the skin was black and they only appeared white because their fur reflects/refracts visible light, I just learned that they are also practically invisible all the way down to infrared... but that reindeer can see them easily, because they can see in ultraviolet!]
(Apologies for the offtopic-ness)
« Last Edit: September 11, 2016, 07:29:59 PM by realitybytes »

prokaryotes

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4766 on: September 11, 2016, 08:27:50 PM »
Spectacular SST anomalies in the high latitudes N of 50N- almost certainty record warm! https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/775031461967650816
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johnm33

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4767 on: September 11, 2016, 10:51:13 PM »
Espen posted this on IJIS

Clicking through  it on Worldview [2-10sep.] it seems to me that the movement of ice passing to the Canadian side has induced a series of 'pulses' of water to wash up against the coast of Greenland forcing the ice away and adding to the current and ice flowing through Fram. http://go.nasa.gov/2cOuL7i This despite the wind not being conducive to such movement from the 4th. https://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/09/04/0300Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-36.86,80.08,2201

Artful Dodger

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4768 on: September 12, 2016, 03:54:23 AM »

After reaching the North Pole, they've gone South a bit.

Which is, of course, the only way they could go.  :)
Aha ha! Excellent!   ;D  But Oden's helo's can climb, too. Or if they were in an LA class boat, they could dive... ::)

Or i guess technically, Oden could also sink.  :'(

Cheers!
Lodger
Cheers!
Lodger

slow wing

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4769 on: September 12, 2016, 05:55:21 AM »
The gif below loops through U. Bremen's Arctic sea ice concentration maps for 8-11 September.

  The Eastern (Siberian) side is still losing ice area: the Wrangel arm continues to atrophy and ice around the Laptev Sea is also disappearing.

  However, this is being outpaced by the ice envelope growing outwards from the Canadian Arctic coast and the ice concentration is also growing at latitudes above 85oN, giving overall net gains in area and extent.

So it looks like the 2016 minimum is now behind us for extent and area (though the volume minimum may well be later).
« Last Edit: September 12, 2016, 02:50:43 PM by slow wing »

Peter Ellis

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4770 on: September 12, 2016, 09:44:54 AM »
If you march 10 m. south, 10 m west, 10 m north
and
arrive from whence you started....

what colour is the bear?
Any colour you like, because it's a stuffed bear you brought with you.  If you're in the northern hemisphere, I'm pretty sure polar bears don't get that close to the actual Pole.  If you're in the southern hemisphere (yes, it works in some places there too), then there are no native bears in the relevant areas.

Accordingly, I shall say the bear is pink, 6" long, and called Mr Cuddles.

oren

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4771 on: September 12, 2016, 10:09:47 AM »
Game Over.
it's been a very interesting season, and the numbers don't tell the whole story. But it still deserved some official honor and number two is appreciated. If the Arctic continues down this fragmentation path (and why should it not), we are not far off from real Game Over. The range of possible weathers that can cause ice free conditions is growing quickly with mobile fragmented ice pack surrounded by killing grounds, thus increasing the probability that some year it will just happen.
Refreeze did start early after all. Having lots of open water in high latitudes strikes both ways. Is this the earliest? Or close to it.
Amazingly enough, Big Block is still clinging to existence in the Beaufort, though it might disappear before the new ice reaches it.

Archimid

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4772 on: September 12, 2016, 12:13:44 PM »
Good riddance 2016 melting season. I am glad we still have ice. Now to breath easy for some more months and hope that an el niño does not coincide with 2017 melting season.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Villabolo

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4773 on: September 12, 2016, 12:42:30 PM »
I'm curious to know what will the year before the big melt look like? I have the feeling that when it finally does go it will be a flash melt. However, what kind of conditions would you need (Extent and thickness) in order to predict with certainty that the following year will be ice free? Or is it possible to even make such a prediction.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4774 on: September 12, 2016, 01:37:34 PM »
 You probably need to watch the whole world, not just the ice in the Arctic. Won't do you any good, even if you know what to look for, if it's an election year where you live.
Everything in the way of natural disasters have happened this year and none of the major news channels gave adequate coverage to them.

Darvince

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4775 on: September 12, 2016, 01:43:43 PM »
I'm curious to know what will the year before the big melt look like? I have the feeling that when it finally does go it will be a flash melt. However, what kind of conditions would you need (Extent and thickness) in order to predict with certainty that the following year will be ice free? Or is it possible to even make such a prediction.
I don't think you'd be able to say with any certainty that the next year would be ice free, as so much of how the season ends up depends on the average weather conditions, while we have trouble predicting climatic anomalies more than 6 months out. Although a good indicator would be shrinking average ice floe size as we have seen since 2012 and an anemic freezing season, which has been more and more the case lately. However I don't think that we're quite capable of having an ice free Arctic even were 2007-like climatic anomalies over the Arctic during summer to repeat next year.

Glenn Tamblyn

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4776 on: September 12, 2016, 02:21:31 PM »
Villabolo.

What will the year before look like?

Smashed up ice structure, mass death of most old ice then a weak freezing season.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4777 on: September 12, 2016, 02:25:43 PM »
We can, with a high degree of certainty, predict an ice-free summer after the first virtually ice-free winter.  I don't believe this will happen for something like 30-300 years or 'never', strongly influenced by political/economic/social events (business as usual - BAU vs. strong decarbonization).  [Never, to a geologist or astronomer, is usually a dangerous claim.  By using quote marks ('never'), I mean just not during the current geological epoch we're in.  Links on 30 and 300 show other's discernment on the question of ice-free Arctic winter.]
« Last Edit: September 12, 2016, 05:25:00 PM by Tor Bejnar »
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4778 on: September 12, 2016, 02:34:35 PM »
Seems there is some Wrangel arm ice still melting. If the Pacific side keeps its melting power we should not discard a flattening even a small dip, in the extent curve. And there is warm air, even rain, coming from the Atlantic over the Laptev.

Iceismylife

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4779 on: September 12, 2016, 05:22:25 PM »
Villabolo.

What will the year before look like?

Smashed up ice structure, mass death of most old ice then a weak freezing season.

With a lot of the fresher water in the top strata mixed in so first years will look like first year ice not second year ice.

A-Team

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4780 on: September 12, 2016, 09:40:11 PM »
Quote
Refreeze did start early. Having lots of open water in high latitudes strikes both ways.
Amazingly enough, Big Block is still clinging to existence in the Beaufort
Wrangel arm ice still melting. If the Pacific side keeps its melting power
The opera isn't over until the fat lady sings. (That's usually Brünnhilde, act 3 scene 3 of Götterdämmerung.) As you can see, given the ongoing mix of melting and freezing, nobody's singing at this point. For that, see

https://www.facebook.com/BecauseWereIrish/videos/665862486857861/
« Last Edit: September 13, 2016, 12:46:46 AM by A-Team »

Espen

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4781 on: September 12, 2016, 09:51:01 PM »
What I find is most interesting at the moment is the sea ice situation north of Greenland and Ellesmere Island?

Click to enlarge!
Have a ice day!

A-Team

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4782 on: September 12, 2016, 10:38:17 PM »
Quote
most interesting at the moment is the sea ice situation north of Greenland
The ice is really being torqued about by the wind these days ...

Fairbanksnchill

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4783 on: September 12, 2016, 11:44:14 PM »
I found this trick to see some movement.

Open the layers tab, make sure that both Terra and aqua layers are visible.

Either drag the top base layer below the other or open the top base layer settings and go from 0-100 Opacity and you can see the movement between the satellite images.

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Graticule,Reference_Labels,Reference_Features,Coastlines&t=2016-09-11&v=-468051.6702428482,-973993.5368804374,687020.3297571518,-102569.5368804374

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4784 on: September 12, 2016, 11:49:42 PM »
What I find is most interesting at the moment is the sea ice situation north of Greenland and Ellesmere Island?

Click to enlarge!


simply stunning, unprecedented in the history of humanity.  Welcome to the new age!

« Last Edit: September 12, 2016, 11:58:56 PM by jai mitchell »
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johnm33

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4785 on: September 13, 2016, 12:02:06 AM »
"I found this trick" Who'd have thunk it! Now we can spot the movement in the fjords beyond the ice jam to get a better idea of daily movement, thanks.
 These [SSS] are telling slightly different stories  about what passes on the north coast of Greenland, this https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/navo/arcticsss_nowcast_anim30d.gif is suggesting melt as deeper water emerges, this that more saline water is emerging https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticsss_nowcast_anim30d.gif
« Last Edit: September 13, 2016, 12:25:24 AM by johnm33 »

A-Team

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4786 on: September 13, 2016, 12:32:39 AM »
Quote
a WorldView trick to see some movement. Open the layers tab, make sure that both Terra and aqua layers are visible.
Or just click the eye icon of the top layer on and off. And include Suomi as its timing is slightly different so helpful for clouds vs ice movement. To make a three frame animation, stack whole-window screenshots to keep them registered and then cropand rescale to forum-admissible dimensions 700x700..

Seaicesailor posted an remarkable WV mark-up in #4715 of Sept 8th about the Wrangel arm area showig wind-driven drift, translation of a circled floe, agitation in current and eddies that do not follow the general drift.

Nullschool provides an ocean current animation which is not updated daily but only every five days. The animation below shows three months rof this ending Sept 10th. It provides direction and speed. The fast current at the indicated point (green circle) was 0.9 km/hr which is 21.6 km/day.

This is a small fraction of concurrent surface wind velocity which is given at nullschool in meters/second so needs to be multiplied by 86.4 for comparison to surface currents in km/day. For example on Sept 10th, the wind was 83x faster than the current. However the current is more likely to 'engage' the flow whereas (for a flat smooth floe) the wind has only the freeboard to act against.

There's no surface current data for the fracturing region above Greenland. We've seen very similar developments many times before but nothing came of them. Maybe this time it will be different in end-of-season.
« Last Edit: September 13, 2016, 12:45:04 AM by A-Team »

Cate

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4787 on: September 13, 2016, 02:46:43 AM »
What I find is most interesting at the moment is the sea ice situation north of Greenland and Ellesmere Island?

Click to enlarge!


simply stunning, unprecedented in the history of humanity.  Welcome to the new age!

When Watching in Canberra posted about this particular movement of ice on the north coasts of Greenland and Ellesmere, with an animation, in #4741 on this thread, I asked if it was normal, expected or unusual. What I'm gathering from Espen and jai and other is that this kind of torqueing of the ice on this coast is a bit out of the ordinary, is that correct?

slow wing

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4788 on: September 13, 2016, 04:03:11 AM »
  U. Bremen has just updated its Arctic sea ice concentration map and the animation below now spans from 8 to 12 September 2016.

  Today's update shows another consecutive day of big gains in ice area and extent. In the absence of some extraordinary weather then that confirms the minima in area and extent have already passed for the 2016 melt season.

  Of sentimental interest only, the last remnants of Big Block disappeared today!

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4789 on: September 13, 2016, 05:08:44 AM »
What I find is most interesting at the moment is the sea ice situation north of Greenland and Ellesmere Island?

Click to enlarge!


simply stunning, unprecedented in the history of humanity.  Welcome to the new age!

When Watching in Canberra posted about this particular movement of ice on the north coasts of Greenland and Ellesmere, with an animation, in #4741 on this thread, I asked if it was normal, expected or unusual. What I'm gathering from Espen and jai and other is that this kind of torqueing of the ice on this coast is a bit out of the ordinary, is that correct?

Several of us had been discussing this for days now, because this was Multi-Year thick ice that takes a long time(years) to build back up. It was looking for a while like we were going to loose a good portion of the MYI through the Canadian Archipelago Channels and that going around the North East corner of Greenland. The amount being lost through the channels was probably more out of the ordinary than what was going around Greenland, although all of it would preferably need to be saved to extend the life of the ice next melt season. It appears some of the pressure may be letting up now, and time will tell how much will be left. Whatever drifts south will melt, even though it may be later on, I would think.

Other than that, I don't believe it to be that unusual, as it has it's own nick-name, Fram Export.
www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/tc-2015-122/

Rob Dekker

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4790 on: September 13, 2016, 06:33:33 AM »
  U. Bremen has just updated its Arctic sea ice concentration map and the animation below now spans from 8 to 12 September 2016.

  Today's update shows another consecutive day of big gains in ice area and extent. In the absence of some extraordinary weather then that confirms the minima in area and extent have already passed for the 2016 melt season.

  Of sentimental interest only, the last remnants of Big Block disappeared today!

Yes, freezing of the core seems to progress much faster than the melt in the Laptev and Wrangel arms.

Seems that Neven (and many of you) were right about that early minimum. And I was wrong this time (predicting a late minimum).
This is our planet. This is our time.
Let's not waste either.

binntho

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4791 on: September 13, 2016, 07:25:53 AM »
I'm surprised that the refreeze has taken off so sharply (according to IJIS) but then again the Arctic seems full of surprises, and reading this forum is a constant source of wonder for me and I'm grateful for all the work that various contributors put into presenting the rest of us with information.

According to the latest ENSO report, the likelihood of an El Nino this winter seems to be receding, with 55-60% change of neutral (or borderline El Nino) instead. On another front, August has just been declared a tie with July for warmest month ever, with the anomaly curve heading upwards again these last three months.

I recall seeing people saying that the effects of an El Nino was mostly in the year following, which could make the next 12 months as exciting as the last.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

oren

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4792 on: September 13, 2016, 08:23:23 AM »
What I find is most interesting at the moment is the sea ice situation north of Greenland and Ellesmere Island?

Click to enlarge!

simply stunning, unprecedented in the history of humanity.  Welcome to the new age!

When Watching in Canberra posted about this particular movement of ice on the north coasts of Greenland and Ellesmere, with an animation, in #4741 on this thread, I asked if it was normal, expected or unusual. What I'm gathering from Espen and jai and other is that this kind of torqueing of the ice on this coast is a bit out of the ordinary, is that correct?

Several of us had been discussing this for days now, because this was Multi-Year thick ice that takes a long time(years) to build back up. It was looking for a while like we were going to loose a good portion of the MYI through the Canadian Archipelago Channels and that going around the North East corner of Greenland. The amount being lost through the channels was probably more out of the ordinary than what was going around Greenland, although all of it would preferably need to be saved to extend the life of the ice next melt season. It appears some of the pressure may be letting up now, and time will tell how much will be left. Whatever drifts south will melt, even though it may be later on, I would think.

Other than that, I don't believe it to be that unusual, as it has it's own nick-name, Fram Export.
www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/tc-2015-122/
I think this is more than the usual Fram Export. The specific torqueing movement of what should be thick ice (along with this being mid-September) I find quite interesting. However this is unqualified opinion as I haven't done a direct comparison with previous years.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4793 on: September 13, 2016, 08:43:56 AM »
I don't know about other years, but recall a similar shearing earlier this season. I doubt it was as thick or concentrated in this area then as it is now. Either way its interesting that its going on this way while refreezing is starting in various places. You can really see it starting to break up on 9-12. Probably good that it is perhaps establishing a stopping point.


Tigertown

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4794 on: September 13, 2016, 02:40:04 PM »
Mainstream media acknowledges this year's second place melt season. Also, mentions the Northabout's venture.

www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-37351271


A-Team

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4795 on: September 13, 2016, 03:37:19 PM »
Quote
Of sentimental interest only, the last remnants of Big Block disappeared today!
People first starting saying this back in late July. BB is not gone at the better resolution of UHH 3.1k. Above, Hycom even sees it growing out in coming days. The animation below analyzes the concentration distribution pixel by pixel on five days ending Sept 12th (pretending, as a practice drill, that the data really has this precision).

Open water here (the darkest blue RGB = 0,7,135 in AMSR2) has been replaced throughout by yellow. The palette stripes show utilization of concentration classes that make up BB's image on successive days. They can be seen to shift in the direction of zero (dark blue). This type of analysis is not feasible on dithered maps in which the correspondence between key and map colors has been lost.

It is fair to say that the area of the remnant dropped precipitously overnight, from 5738 to 1296 (77% drop) and a secondary floe of 4504 disappeared altogether. The current location is 73.089º N by 142.670º W.

The Arctic Ocean in the UHH large format AMSR2 comprises 1 792 243 pixels; wikipedia gives the area as 14 056 000 km2 so (ignoring variation due to map projection) 7.8 km2 per pixel. On Sept 12th, Big Block consisted of 1296 pixels at 3x resolution (scale of first animation) with one-ninth of that being 144 pixels or 1129 sq km which corresponds to a circle of 38 km in diameter. That's a lot of soccer fields. However not all of this is ice as AMSR2 is showing concentration percentiles; the average BB pixel on the 12th represents only 15% ice.

The Beaufort has been so cloudy that higher resolution visible imagery is scarcely available. A possible image from 09 Sept 16 is shown below, http://go.nasa.gov/2cUybVP; there has not been coverage by Sentinel active radar for a long while. If BB had been visible at Modis resolution of 250 m, it would be 4 x 38 = 152 pixels across, providing 23104 pixels on WorldView.

The persistence is probably attributable to Big Block's initial size (and 4 m thickness) which meant very little perimeter area relative to volume. This suggests that side melt is more significant than bottom melt on smaller floes. BB thus serves as an excellent local proxy for melting conditions this season in the Beaufort, as well as serving as a buoy that monitors current- and wind-driven drift and rotation.
« Last Edit: September 13, 2016, 10:59:21 PM by A-Team »

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4796 on: September 14, 2016, 02:15:30 AM »
Wipneus' Raspberry Pi is hard at work once again. Here is what it has come up with:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

slow wing

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4797 on: September 14, 2016, 04:14:10 AM »
The fast refreeze continues. Attached below is the progression from 7 to 13 August 2016 as shown by the U. Bremen's Arctic sea ice concentration maps using AMSR2 satellite data.

As well as adding the latest of those maps, from 13 August, the 7 August map was added to the beginning of the sequence as that was the date of the extent minimum as determined by NSIDC:
The NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice extent minimum was September 7th, 2016 with a value of 4.083*10^6 KM^2.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4798 on: September 14, 2016, 04:28:14 AM »
How much of this is refreeze and how much of it is the ice that was pushed up against the Canadian
side being dispersed back out into the open Arctic, along with some refreezing? Not saying I know this as a fact, more like suspicious of it and asking?

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4799 on: September 14, 2016, 05:13:58 AM »
I believe the reverse dipole could very well mean an early minimum for extent as the dispersed ice begins to migrate towards the Pacific side of the Arctic.

I suggested the possibility of an early SIE minimum on 9/5.