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Author Topic: The 2016 melting season  (Read 1551510 times)

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4800 on: September 14, 2016, 07:37:50 AM »
How much of this is refreeze and how much of it is the ice that was pushed up against the Canadian
side being dispersed back out into the open Arctic, along with some refreezing? Not saying I know this as a fact, more like suspicious of it and asking?
There is dispersion but most, I think is refreezing. Note how fast it travels. It is more like a propagating flame than mass being moved.
Off-topic :) ;)

oren

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4801 on: September 14, 2016, 07:38:49 AM »
How much of this is refreeze and how much of it is the ice that was pushed up against the Canadian
side being dispersed back out into the open Arctic, along with some refreezing? Not saying I know this as a fact, more like suspicious of it and asking?
I believe most of it is refreeze. Had it been migration, low concentration areas would have opened up somewhere else, as happened a lot this season.

budmantis

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4802 on: September 14, 2016, 07:42:45 AM »
I believe the reverse dipole could very well mean an early minimum for extent as the dispersed ice begins to migrate towards the Pacific side of the Arctic.

I suggested the possibility of an early SIE minimum on 9/5.

Looks like your prognostication was spot on! :)

A-Team

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4803 on: September 14, 2016, 03:15:51 PM »
be
Quote
lieve most of it is refreeze. Had it been migration, low concentration areas would have opened up somewhere else
Melting conditions continue to prevail in the Beaufort Sea on Sept 13th. Migration due to the cyclone of Sept 11th has rotated and thinned ice north of Prince Patrick. The first image in #4782 illustrates this regional effect, even as refreeze is happening elsewhere:


Tigertown

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4804 on: September 14, 2016, 04:36:07 PM »
Funny. HYCOM model, of all things, had been showing all this in advance, also.

jdallen

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4805 on: September 14, 2016, 09:07:35 PM »
How much of this is refreeze and how much of it is the ice that was pushed up against the Canadian
side being dispersed back out into the open Arctic, along with some refreezing? Not saying I know this as a fact, more like suspicious of it and asking?
I'd bet on it being mostly refreeze, via mechanism described elsewhere.  There's been a fair amount of precipitation in the form of snow.  That falling on sub 0C water will form nilas immediately.  It wouldn't be especially thick - probably less than 10CM - but sufficient to make sensors believe the the water has frozen.

Further thought - ice in the water, even nilas, would affect heat transfer, and permit additional surface cooling, and ice formation.

So we could have paradoxical conditions, with substantial sub-surface ocean heat, insulated by surface layers of less saline water, covered by a thin layer of slushy ice, in dynamic balance with the heat flow.

It will consequently also cap and trap far more of that heat than we really care to have hanging around as well.  In short, rapid refreeze is not good news.
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charles_oil

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4806 on: September 14, 2016, 10:02:42 PM »
Could this mean a "ratchet" effect where warmer water is trapped below the new ice over winter leading to faster melt in the summer and even warmer water the following winter?
Or would it mean bottom melt from convection makes for slower growth / thinner winter ice ?   
Last winter I recall that the ice core temperature was suspected of already being warmer than normal due to unusually warm weather.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4807 on: September 15, 2016, 08:34:13 AM »
Ice extent is still very low despite the refreeze. I wouldn't assume that there's lots of trapped heat with such low extent. I wish that there were more buoys recording data so we had a better measure of what's happening below the surface.

Espen

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4808 on: September 15, 2016, 08:53:25 PM »
I am surprised no one really cares about what is happening in Wandel Sea, I never saw that much open water before?
Have a ice day!

Iceismylife

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4809 on: September 15, 2016, 09:04:54 PM »
I am surprised no one really cares about what is happening in Wandel Sea, I never saw that much open water before?
Not only that but it is headed around the corner fast. I care but I must be no one.


Tigertown

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4810 on: September 15, 2016, 09:35:15 PM »
We had a few really good discussions about the matter.

Oh Yeah, and Keith Sweat is more my style.

Cate

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4811 on: September 15, 2016, 11:41:43 PM »
Espen, thank you for your comment about open water in the Wandel Sea. I have been wondering for days if this development is normal or unexpected. Good to know that you consider it noteworthy.

budmantis

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4812 on: September 15, 2016, 11:48:23 PM »
I've been observing the area, but didnt comment as I couldn't add any insight to what already had been posted.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4813 on: September 15, 2016, 11:57:15 PM »
I am surprised no one really cares about what is happening in Wandel Sea

I've been commenting on that Espen, but on Twitter and in the "Freezing Season" thread! Shouldn't we have moved over there by now?
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4814 on: September 16, 2016, 12:09:52 AM »
Last winter I lamented the fact that so many regular visitors disappeared. I spent the entire winter here and it was an amazing winter indeed, a record low maximum. I understand that the Arctic summers can be riveting but if we really want to understand how AGW is affecting the Arctic, it is just as important that we follow the Arctic winter. This includes the large positive anomalies for NH snow cover in the winter, the rapid melt of that same snow so that we have huge negative NH snow cover anomalies in the Spring. How are the warm Arctic Winters and the large stretches of open water contributing to these anomalies? What effect might these early snow blankets have on the thawing permafrost as it insulates the permafrost from the winter cold? It can't be good as it can only increase the areas of discontinuous permafrost. What about deep snow cover on the refreezing ocean. Wouldn't this also inhibit the growth of the sea ice in the winter?

What do stormy fall seas mean for the freeze season. How might it alter the nature and quality of FYI? I am fascinated by waves and the emerging physical structures we find in the sea ice, widely fractured with less and less ice that can be found as huge, very stable and relatively immobile flows. I believe our mild winters, later freezes and newly stormy winter Arctic has a dramatic impact on the physical nature of the ice, its integrity and the nature of the following melt season.

This melt season was riveting. I expect this winter freeze season to be as well.

Pass the popcorn.

Iceismylife

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4815 on: September 16, 2016, 12:33:13 AM »
I am surprised no one really cares about what is happening in Wandel Sea

I've been commenting on that Espen, but on Twitter and in the "Freezing Season" thread! Shouldn't we have moved over there by now?
But the melt season isn't entirely over. ;D  Give it a week.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4816 on: September 16, 2016, 02:25:52 AM »
When a tropical storm forms on land in Florida, anything can happen this winter in the Arctic.
 Stay sharp and stay tuned.

www.cnn.com/2016/09/14/us/tropical-storm-julia-weather/

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4817 on: September 16, 2016, 04:22:06 AM »
Is any of this heading to the Atlantic before full freeze sets in?
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=1493.0;attach=36283;image
« Last Edit: September 16, 2016, 04:28:28 AM by Thomas Barlow »

slow wing

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4818 on: September 16, 2016, 04:37:46 AM »
Attached below is the Arctic ice age in March 2016 - it's a screenshot from a gif posted a page or two back by A-Team.

  Does A-Team or anyone else know how much of the older ice survived the melt season?

  Can any of the features at the end of the melt season be matched to regions of older ice in the March map? The 'Wrangel arm' is an obvious example.

  (Even better would be if, by some luck, someone had done the ice age map for the end of the melt  season, or even an animation for the ice age extending through the melt season. A-Team, do you happen to know if anyone might have done/will do that?)

  The old ice in the Beaufort Sea, for example, didn't survive. Did 2016 then reach a record low of multi-year ice?


slow wing

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4819 on: September 16, 2016, 08:05:40 AM »
Hey, where's everyone gone from this thread?!  :P

Espen is reporting a 16,000 km^2 drop in IJIS extent, now only about 136,000 km^2 above the putative minimum from 7 September.

Also, a strong storm is currently raging in the Arctic basin. GFS at Tropicaltidbits.com has it currently at 977 hPa and forecasts it to stay there and on or below 985 hPa for a whole week from now!


Could it... ? Would it... ? Is it possible... ?  :)

jdallen

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4820 on: September 16, 2016, 08:40:36 AM »
Hey, where's everyone gone from this thread?!  :P

Espen is reporting a 16,000 km^2 drop in IJIS extent, now only about 136,000 km^2 above the putative minimum from 7 September.

Also, a strong storm is currently raging in the Arctic basin. GFS at Tropicaltidbits.com has it currently at 977 hPa and forecasts it to stay there and on or below 985 hPa for a whole week from now!


Could it... ? Would it... ? Is it possible... ?  :)
I'm of mixed mind about the storm.  On one hand, it will continue dredging heat out of the depths which will *still* attack the ice.  I'm not sure if it will make up for the areas refrozen however, though it may reduce overall volume.

OTOH, at this stage, that heat now has somewhere to go other than into the ice - that is out of the atmosphere - so for the refreeze, this may be good news and may get the ice returning in some areas sooner than it did in fall 2015.  The IF is whether or not the storm brings its own heat with it, and how much.
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iceman

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4821 on: September 16, 2016, 11:05:18 AM »
   .... GFS at Tropicaltidbits.com has it currently at 977 hPa and forecasts it to stay there and on or below 985 hPa for a whole week from now!
   ....
OTOH, at this stage, that heat now has somewhere to go other than into the ice - that is out of the atmosphere - so for the refreeze, this may be good news and may get the ice returning in some areas sooner than it did in fall 2015.  ...

Good point about the other heat outlet.  In any case this storm is likely to continue the trend of dispersion and refreeze, if not as rapidly as recently.  Net compaction conditions might return a week or so from now, but by then area/extent will be considerably higher.
     See y'all over at the freezing season thread.

P-maker

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4822 on: September 16, 2016, 11:34:50 AM »
It ain’t over until the fat lady has had her chance… - in this case we have a final great battle for this NH autumn season going on for some time yet to come.

It involves a number of massive and violent Tropical cyclones in two major ocean basins and a declining sun input over two Northern continents.

The former will be heating the Arctic atmosphere from the top through advection of warm dry air masses aloft, whereas the latter will be cooling the Arctic Ocean though advection of cold dry air masses along the surface.

My bet is that the former will win the next month or two until the Tropical and Subtropical ocean surfaces have cooled down for the winter. However, should widespread snowfalls in Russia and Canada occur and tip the balance, this could help to cool down the Northern continents before winter sets in. We may thus see flash freezing over the skinny remnants of the broken Wrangle arm. In that case we have saved ourselves a giant pool of hot water under the thin ice.

This may indeed be the last chance for the fat lady to sing in our life time.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4823 on: September 16, 2016, 03:07:56 PM »
When a tropical storm forms on land in Florida, anything can happen this winter in the Arctic.

Stay tuned to:

"The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season"
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

prokaryotes

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4824 on: September 16, 2016, 08:50:41 PM »
Timothy A suggested earlier that bloom is probably that of the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi, a  oxygenic photosynthetic plankton. These blooms commonly form in nutrient-depleted waters after the reformation of the summer thermocline though this bloom is getting rather far north.

Unusual phytoplankton bloom phenology in the northern Greenland Sea during 2010

Quote
• The causes of elevated phytoplankton bloom in the northern Greenland Sea in 2010 are mainly due to the sea ice melting.
• Earlier and more extensive sea ice melt, persistent negative NAO, and changing wind directions were the main drivers of the bloom.
• Multivariate lagged regression analysis shows the bloom was correlated with the timing of sea ice melt, PAR and SST.

Wind direction changed from the southeast to southwest direction in spring, possibly transporting nutrient enriched melt runoff from glaciers on Greenland and other sources from the south to northern coastal regions.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924796316302172

Related
Light and nutrient effects on the settling characteristics of the sea ice diatom Nitzschia frigida
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/lno.10054/abstract
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Andreas T

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4825 on: September 16, 2016, 09:01:17 PM »
Oden is approaching the ice edge from the north so we will get water temperatures soon but only briefly. http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=SMLQ
Above 81N it was measuring -1.6 deg earlier today.
Air temperature which were below -8 yesterday are up at +0.2

werther

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4826 on: September 16, 2016, 10:56:29 PM »


In terms of my former high-/low-concentration surveys in  ’07, ’10 and ’12, I’d say ’16 was worst around minimum 7 September ever.

In the safe-haven CAA sector, I find just 2 Mkm2 to be remotely considered ‘high concentration’ by my own standards in former years.

The once extensive ‘mesh pattern’, reduced to maybe just 190K in and N of the Lincoln Sea, has been torn apart in the last two weeks. Even though a fresh layer of snow hides the worst. As some of us have posted, it seems quite possible that these torn MYI floes could easily get lost through Fram Strait in the coming fall and winter months. There’s no cohesion left, not even for the coming winter freeze to be restored.

The main ice feature this summer, a big blob extending right up to the Laptev Sea, cannot be seriously noted as being ‘high concentration’ sea ice. The bulk is FYI crap, although it seems to cover 700K.

The same goes, in my opinion, for the crap ice so often noted as ‘Wrangel Arm’. With utter indulgence it is possible to wrench out 25K of ice as ‘high concentration’. The rest is dispersed debris, the only thing going for it is that a lot of the debris can still be considered as MYI.

Everything picked up, 2.725 Mkm2 could reluctantly be considered ‘high concentration’, the lowest score ever. The rest adding up to the 4.0 Mkm2 counted by IJIS can mercifully be considered ‘low concentration’.

By earlier standards, high concentration could have an extrapolated thickness of 1.5 m. Low concentration about 0.6 m. That would add into maybe 3500 km3 of shattered, structureless and mobile sea ice.

Of course this process would take some time on a man’s life-scale. But in geophysical terms it all passes in a flash. And today’s still is a state of pity….

Nix

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4827 on: September 17, 2016, 05:56:54 AM »
Interesting weather news looking to affect the late season of the melt season what do Ya'll think?

An amplified jet stream pattern will set-up next week and this will bring a sharp contrast in temperatures across North America. Summer-like heat could become the story in the Great Lakes, but parts of the West will be feeling a wintery chill with more snow in the Rockies and possibly into the Foothills of Alberta.
The pattern change will start to develop during the weekend and early next week as a deep trough digs into southwestern Canada and the western U.S. This will send temperatures tumbling, first in BC and then spreading east across the Prairies. As the pattern becomes more amplified, a ridge will build into the Great Lakes, allowing unseasonal warmth to surge north. The warmest and coldest areas will see temperatures that are at least 5 to 10 degrees above or below seasonal. Parts of Southern Ontario, including Toronto may see one more 30 degree day at the end of next week.

Amplified flow – deep troughs and strong ridges – is common enough in the transitional autumn season, but this particular pattern change has an interesting connection to ongoing active weather in a region far removed from Canada: the western Pacific basin.
A pair of intense typhoons, Meranti and Malakas, have made their impacts felt across the western Pacific in recent days. And though these powerful storms are thousands of miles away from Canada, they will have an impact on weather patterns across the Northern Hemisphere, including our upcoming pattern change.Meteorologists use the term “teleconnection” for an atmospheric or oceanic feature in one part of the globe that have an effect somewhere else far away. A classic example of a teleconnection is the El Nino Southern Oscillation. This pattern, which relates to water temperatures and air pressure patterns in the equatorial Pacific, has a major and well-documented effect on North American weather. If you enjoyed last year’s mild winter in Canada, you have a teleconnection to thank.

The tracks of western Pacific typhoons are a different type of teleconnection, and they can give us important clues about how weather patterns will change over North America in the following 7-10 days. Specifically, a recurving typhoon like Malakas is often a sure sign of a deep trough developing over North America the next week.

This is not a direct cause-and-effect relationship – the typhoon doesn’t cause the North American trough, but there is a linkage. The typhoon pumps heat into the ridge commonly found to the east of Japan. This in turn causes a trough to dig in over the Bering Sea, which builds a ridge over the Gulf of Alaska. Finally, a trough begins to dig in over British Columbia, which builds a ridge into the Great Lakes.You can think of it as a domino effect, or perhaps more precisely, like kids on a playground making waves in a jump rope. Although in this case the jump rope is the jet stream, and the kid tugging on the end is the typhoon.
This image shows the forecast jet stream pattern over the North Pacific for next week. As you can see, the jump rope is making some wild swings, just as you would expect in the wake of a typhoon. A strong jet max is located northeast of Japan, and a powerful ridge over the Gulf of Alaska is bookended by deep troughs on either side. The trough impacting British Columbia will be the driver for next week’s pattern change.

What makes this relationship particularly useful for forecasters, is that the track the typhoon takes can help us forecast the position of the trough 7-10 days later. It tells us not only that there will be a trough, but where it is likely to be. If the typhoon tracks east of Japan, the trough is often found in eastern North America. A typhoon recurving further west, off Taiwan (as is the case with Malakas) suggests a trough over western and central North America, with ridging and warm weather developing near the Great Lakes.

Each weather pattern is different, and the relationship between typhoons and troughs isn’t always perfect. But teleconnections are a valuable tool that forecasters use in long range and seasonal forecasts. They can help us make sense of model madness, and lend confidence to our ideas about upcoming pattern changes.

effbeh

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4828 on: September 17, 2016, 08:33:04 AM »
Extent shows a decline for the second day now, down to 4.23 from 4.27.  According to  http://web.nersc.no/WebData/arctic-roos.org/observation/ssmi1_ice_area.png, area also declined.  Apparently the ice hasn't reached "the only way is up" yet.

prokaryotes

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4829 on: September 17, 2016, 01:19:05 PM »
Extent shows a decline for the second day now, down to 4.23 from 4.27.  According to  http://web.nersc.no/WebData/arctic-roos.org/observation/ssmi1_ice_area.png, area also declined.  Apparently the ice hasn't reached "the only way is up" yet.
Is there a chance that 2016 may become the second lowest on record, instead of tied for second spot?
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4830 on: September 17, 2016, 03:13:30 PM »
I may have to cross post this! Another cyclone => more "melting" in the CAB (and elsewhere):

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/09/september-arctic-cyclone-alert/#Sep-17
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

NeilT

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4831 on: September 17, 2016, 06:04:28 PM »
Extent shows a decline for the second day now, down to 4.23 from 4.27.  According to  http://web.nersc.no/WebData/arctic-roos.org/observation/ssmi1_ice_area.png, area also declined.  Apparently the ice hasn't reached "the only way is up" yet.

A bit like this then...
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

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A-Team

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4832 on: September 17, 2016, 11:49:55 PM »
Quote
Apparently the ice hasn't reached "the only way is up" yet.
That certainly seems to be the case for the Barents (shown below), Beaufort, and Chukchi (Wrangel arm).

The second animation has blue (zero sea ice concentration according to AMSR2 UHH) removed as transparency, which results in each new date overwriting everything below. Residual transparency is replaced upon posting with forum gray.) Then pure white (100% concentration) has been replaced with red. The final frame shows the average sea ice concentration over the 9 days, with only a few areas such as the Lincoln Sea and more poised for Fram export as consistently this solid.
« Last Edit: September 17, 2016, 11:59:19 PM by A-Team »

A-Team

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4833 on: September 18, 2016, 01:37:18 AM »
Here are the two native resolution files. They retain the original color key provided UHH but won't animate here without a click because of their more pleasant scale (width).

ftp://ftp-projects.zmaw.de/seaice/AMSR2/3.125km/
« Last Edit: September 18, 2016, 01:47:47 AM by A-Team »

prokaryotes

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4834 on: September 18, 2016, 11:28:19 AM »
Arctic sea ice shrinks to second lowest level ever recorded

Quote
The National Snow and Ice Data Center in Colorado said the sea ice reached its summer low point on Saturday, extending 4.14m sq km (1.6m sq miles). That’s behind only the mark set in 2012, 3.39m sq km.

Center director Mark Serreze said this year’s level technically was 10,000 sq km less than 2007, but that’s so close the two years are essentially tied.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/sep/16/arctic-sea-ice-shrinks-to-second-lowest-level-ever-recorded
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4835 on: September 18, 2016, 12:12:45 PM »
Don't they usually wait until the end of the month for this kind of rankings??

6roucho

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4836 on: September 18, 2016, 01:35:24 PM »
At (what might just about be) the end of another momentous Arctic summer, I'd like to thank everyone here for a season of rich information and dazzling scientific source material. This is one of the best science forums on the Internet. It's a shame it's documenting the end of something so valuable, but it has to be documented, and the Internet is doing a job here, even when (especially when) there is strenuous argument. I've no doubt that what is posted on here (and on similar sites such as Jim Hunt's excellent greatwhitecon.info) will become an important part of the public record. It's certainly forming a part of my own lifelong education. Kudos.

Watching_from_Canberra

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4837 on: September 18, 2016, 02:01:19 PM »
Don't they usually wait until the end of the month for this kind of rankings??

If it has already gone lower than 2007, the only question remaining is whether it goes lower than 2012 (which seems unlikely).  In other years the rank might still be an open question at this time.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4838 on: September 18, 2016, 04:56:52 PM »
Don't they usually wait until the end of the month for this kind of rankings??

If it has already gone lower than 2007, the only question remaining is whether it goes lower than 2012 (which seems unlikely).  In other years the rank might still be an open question at this time.
Thanks. I checked and in fact they also announced 2015 min early. I must be confusing with monthly average.

In any case, a 50k drop in the daily today.

A-Team

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4839 on: September 18, 2016, 06:48:55 PM »
Meanwhile ... the last ten days show some interesting developments overall, with both melt and freeze in the Wrangel arm, continuing import deep into channels of the CAA, export of thick multi-year ice accelerating out the Nares Strait, and Big Block winking in and out as it drops below microwave resolution. Some 2,116 cricket fields could be set up on one pixel there, suggesting Big Block is still a very large floe.

In the five animations below, open water has been replaced by pale yellow and solid ice (100% sea ice concentration per AMSR2 3.1k UHH) by green.
« Last Edit: September 18, 2016, 07:06:04 PM by A-Team »

slow wing

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4840 on: September 18, 2016, 11:44:12 PM »
Thanks A-Team, those superb graphics really help our understanding.


You point out the striking export of ice to the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA). What is so scary about that is that the CAA is becoming a sink rather than a sanctuary for the multi-year Arctic sea ice.

The ice that goes in there is probably not coming back out into the Arctic Basin. Instead, though, it can spread out through the various channels of the CAA and, increasingly, the CAA is melting out every melt season.

Until the most recent seasons, the Fram Strait has been the traditional 'graveyard' for the multi-year ice: ice that passes through there is doomed by the warmer Atlantic water and air.

You show the Nares Strait is exporting like crazy as well - as it presumably has also done  in previous years. The Nares is so much narrower than the Fram though that it cannot deal to nearly as much ice.

  This melt season however, the Fram Strait (and the smaller Nares) has been just one of several sinks for the ice. The whole Atlantic front of the ice pack was melting out before it reached Svalbard and the string of islands alongside it (=the boundary to the Barents sea?). On the other side, the Beaufort Sea opened up so early as to become effectively another graveyard for the ice pack. (While the Siberian side opened up also - the prevailing winds, away from Siberia, didn't push as much ice in that direction.) And now the CAA is added as a sink on the Western side, that is, exactly where the prevailing winds tend to push the ice pack.

anotheramethyst

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4841 on: September 19, 2016, 12:57:03 AM »
If you march 10 m. south, 10 m west, 10 m north
and
arrive from whence you started....

what colour is the bear?

White.  Same as my favorite riddle:

There's a cabin with 4 walls.  Each wall has 1 window.  All 4 windows face south.  A bear walks by a window.  What color is the bear?

charles_oil

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4842 on: September 19, 2016, 02:03:29 AM »
I hope the cabin can float !

jdallen

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4843 on: September 19, 2016, 02:22:17 AM »
Thanks A-Team, those superb graphics really help our understanding.

You point out the striking export of ice to the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA). What is so scary about that is that the CAA is becoming a sink rather than a sanctuary for the multi-year Arctic sea ice.
<snippage>
Until the most recent seasons, the Fram Strait has been the traditional 'graveyard' for the multi-year ice: ice that passes through there is doomed by the warmer Atlantic water and air.
<snippage>
Indeed thank you again, A-Team.

The CAA/NWP as a new exit for old ice is definitely an ugly development and bodes poorly for next season.

The "Atlantic Front" was active last fall as well, all the way into the end of the freezing season.  I have considerable confidence that will be true again this winter, with similarly bad connotations for MYI retention.  I suspect a lot of ice which as survived the melt season may end up shoved against Svalbard and Franz Josef and end up disintegrating even in the heart of winter.  I think this may be one of the first "state changes" we will note with the behavior of the Arctic as a system.
This space for Rent.

slow wing

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4844 on: September 19, 2016, 03:15:06 AM »
Agreed, jdallen. Sadly.


I hope the cabin can float !
I took it that the cabin and the bear are on a boat.  :o :-[ :'(

oren

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4845 on: September 19, 2016, 07:17:39 AM »
This melt season however, the Fram Strait (and the smaller Nares) has been just one of several sinks for the ice. The whole Atlantic front of the ice pack was melting out before it reached Svalbard and the string of islands alongside it (=the boundary to the Barents sea?). On the other side, the Beaufort Sea opened up so early as to become effectively another graveyard for the ice pack. (While the Siberian side opened up also - the prevailing winds, away from Siberia, didn't push as much ice in that direction.) And now the CAA is added as a sink on the Western side, that is, exactly where the prevailing winds tend to push the ice pack.
I believe this complete surrounding by killing grounds early in the season is the condition that precedes an ice-free arctic, coupled with a mobile fragmented ice pack that can easily reach these areas.
Add weather favorable for melting, and the story is over.

Rob Dekker

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4846 on: September 19, 2016, 08:04:01 AM »
Some 2,116 cricket fields could be set up on one pixel there, suggesting Big Block is still a very large floe.

A-team, on behalf of the readers of this forum, a BIG THANK YOU, for following the movements and developments of Big Block from April on.
I have deep respect for the animations and images you produce, including the changes that Big Block went through over the months.

I stated before that I thought Big Block would melt out before the freezing season, but it seems its ice is sturdy and the remnants of it (smaller than a pixel) may actually survive this epic melting season. In the end, we may never know, since it is dropping below AMSR2 resolution now, and Modis won't be much help with the sun setting.
This is our planet. This is our time.
Let's not waste either.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4847 on: September 19, 2016, 01:42:54 PM »
In the end, we may never know, since it is dropping below AMSR2 resolution now, and Modis won't be much help with the sun setting.

Don't forget the occasional glimpse on Sentinel 1A via PolarView though:

http://www.polarview.aq/arctic

With Wipneus' able assistance I have been experimenting with a 1% AMSR2 extent threshold. This from September 9th:

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4848 on: September 19, 2016, 03:15:48 PM »
In the end, we may never know, since it is dropping below AMSR2 resolution now, and Modis won't be much help with the sun setting.

Don't forget the occasional glimpse on Sentinel 1A via PolarView though:


It looks lonely.

Yuha

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #4849 on: September 19, 2016, 06:21:57 PM »
The remnants of the Big Block are still there:
http://go.nasa.gov/2cTyX82
They are probably still melting but might just survive.