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Daniel B.

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #50 on: November 01, 2017, 02:03:57 AM »
It's really not looking likely that there would be a net decrease in mortality from climate change. Warmer winters don't necessarily save all that many lives, hotter summers definitely take them, and that's before you factor in the economics to the complexity. https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-will-rising-temperatures-mean-more-lives-are-saved-than-lost

And when we factor in the economics, I note this individual is talking up the loss of permafrost. Permafrost loss may make some land potentially farmable for a single short growing season, but the benefit from that is likely to be far outweighed by the loss of infrastructure built on permafrost and the disruption to agriculture from climate changing everywhere else in the world.


I'm amazed by the cohesiveness of the two of you.
You won't mind if I answer as if replying to but one poster, I hope.


Since I didn't exaggerate my "statistic", and you replied with nonsense that has nothing to do with our previous exchange, I must assume you are a troll.


Look no further than Puerto Rico to witness just one of the disasters that deniers like yourself have caused by slowing acceptance of disastrous Global Warming we're already experiencing. If we had listened to Hansen's warnings all those decades ago, the Ocean might not be at today's temperatures, some of the Polar Ice would not have melted away, perhaps we'd have more glaciers expanding.


< 0.03 climate scientist agree with you, and many of them previously argued that smoking was a healthy pastime. Light up a Camel and inhale deeply, it may alleviate the loneliness.


Terry

Actually, most scientist do agree with me that the earth has warmed, and that most warming has occurred over the coldest realms (high latitudes, winter, and nighttime).  Very little warming has occurred over the warmest realms.  Indeed, summer daytime highs are little changed.  Most also agree that mankind has contributed, although there exists much disagree as to the extent.

You seem to be unaware that Puerta Rico is frequently ravaged by hurricanes.  Same with Florida.  Globally, this season is not unusual.  In fact, this year is running about 5% below the average accumulated cyclone energy.  This is not a disaster, but nature at its norm.

aperson

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #51 on: November 01, 2017, 02:48:38 AM »
In fact, this year is running about 5% below the average accumulated cyclone energy.  This is not a disaster, but nature at its norm.

Why do you care about global ACE instead of per-basin? Of course a Nina season would have a lower overall ACE due to the associated weakening of WPAC formation. On per-basin ACE, the Atlantic is currently 7th highest and the formation of one more tropical cyclone in this basin would likely push it to 4th, 3rd, or possibly higher if it is major intensity.

If it wasn't clear that you were trying to cherry-pick spurious pointless claims before that statement, it's extremely clear now. You're making a claim that should be plainly obvious to anyone who understands ENSO dynamics and their effects on TC formation. It should also be plainly obvious to anyone who understands these things that the 2017 Atlantic season has been *extremely* unusual. Are the .03 of meteorologists you follow Joe Bastardi and uhh... Joe Bastardi?

AbruptSLR

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #52 on: November 01, 2017, 03:22:59 AM »
As wili already noted, the signal of the impact of climate change on health is coming into focus:

Title: "How Climate Change Is Already Affecting Health, Spreading Disease"

http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/10/31/561041342/scientists-from-around-the-world-report-on-health-effects-from-climate-change

Extract: "In other words, climate's connection to health is extraordinarily complicated.

Now international team of scientists has taken a step toward untangling this problem on a global scale.

"All of the work we present is pretty tricky," says Dr. Nick Watts, at University College London, who led the study. "I don't think any of us would ever say that this has been easy."

Around the world, people have experienced an average increase in temperature about 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit, and the study — published Monday in The Lancet journal — finds several signs that even this small amount of warming threatens the health of hundreds of millions of people each year.

First, the number of vulnerable people exposed to heat waves has surged worldwide, the study finds."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Daniel B.

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #53 on: November 01, 2017, 03:32:35 AM »
In fact, this year is running about 5% below the average accumulated cyclone energy.  This is not a disaster, but nature at its norm.

Why do you care about global ACE instead of per-basin? Of course a Nina season would have a lower overall ACE due to the associated weakening of WPAC formation. On per-basin ACE, the Atlantic is currently 7th highest and the formation of one more tropical cyclone in this basin would likely push it to 4th, 3rd, or possibly higher if it is major intensity.

If it wasn't clear that you were trying to cherry-pick spurious pointless claims before that statement, it's extremely clear now. You're making a claim that should be plainly obvious to anyone who understands ENSO dynamics and their effects on TC formation. It should also be plainly obvious to anyone who understands these things that the 2017 Atlantic season has been *extremely* unusual. Are the .03 of meteorologists you follow Joe Bastardi and uhh... Joe Bastardi?

Yes, of course La Niña years result in higher Atlantic tropical activity.  That is just one more indications that this season is rather average.  And you are right, this should be plainly obvious to everyone here.  At least it is obvious to most meteorologists, regardless of you follow.

Daniel B.

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #54 on: November 01, 2017, 03:50:14 AM »
FYI, cherry-picking refers to selectively choosing a smaller portion of a dataset (i.e. Atlantic basin), instead of using the entire dataset (global), usually to make a spurious point which differs from the overall data.  On any given day, one could find some place that is experiencing unusually warm or cool temperatures.  To use this to support one’s personal view, while ignoring other data is also cherry-picking.  Weather swings wildly over the short term.  Long term trends are what is important.

aperson

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #55 on: November 01, 2017, 03:54:23 AM »
Yes, of course La Niña years result in higher Atlantic tropical activity.  That is just one more indications that this season is rather average.  And you are right, this should be plainly obvious to everyone here.  At least it is obvious to most meteorologists, regardless of you follow.

This season was anomalous in terms of where hurricanes reached major strength. In particular, Irma and Maria reached category 5 farther eastward than any other hurricanes in the Atlantic record. The location where Ophelia reached major hurricane strength is an extreme outlier.

Both changes in intensity and trajectory for the Atlantic basin were anomalous in ways that have been predicted by a warming climate. In particular, this year should serve as a warning to Europe, as 2012 should have served as a warning for the Northeastern US.

I would consider a widening latitude of tropical cyclone incidence as well as an increase in intensity to be a net minus for anthropogenic health. Stack one more thing to your endless nebulous weighting of "good" vs "bad" while we increase temperature and variance.

Coffee Drinker

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #56 on: November 01, 2017, 04:03:59 AM »
Warning to Europe?
Sorry, but death from hurricanes (and climate change) has zero statistical effect on overall health and mortally of a population. Especially in Europe.

The impact of climate on health is so minimal compared to general pollution, pesticides, fast food, smoking and unhealthy lifestyle in general.

Paddy

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #57 on: November 01, 2017, 07:13:00 AM »
There's some high grade trolling going on in this thread.

EDIT: But for those interested in more serious forecasts, the World Health Organisation reckon that climate change will cause an additional 250000 deaths a year between 2030 and 2050. Small potatoes compared to the millions of deaths a year attributable to smoking, air pollution, or obesity, but not negligible either. http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs266/en/
« Last Edit: November 01, 2017, 09:45:51 AM by Paddy »

Daniel B.

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #58 on: November 01, 2017, 06:28:46 PM »
The effects are indeed minimal compared to other, more serious issues.  My big concern is the amount of money and attention given to this issue and the expense of these other problems. 

longwalks1

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #59 on: November 01, 2017, 07:33:11 PM »
  From Daniel B.
Quote
Sure, heat-related deaths have increased.  But at the same time, cold-related deaths have subsided.  That is similar to those railing against vaccines, because of the few negative results, while ignoring the decrease in mortality from the disease itself. 

As Neven counseled me once months ago,, "You posted that every 3 months you hide comments from one person to stay calm, you should do that for   "**"."  Done.   

There is a blog out there that is called "Not Even Wrong"   That snippet is beyond facile. 

Paddy

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #60 on: November 01, 2017, 09:28:46 PM »
The effects are indeed minimal compared to other, more serious issues.  My big concern is the amount of money and attention given to this issue and the expense of these other problems.

The problem is that climate change is a long term, growing and accelerating issue that threatens the very land we live on. Humanity can doubtless survive by retreating from rising seas, building to withstand more powerful hurricanes, altering the crops used to fit changing climatic conditions etc, but the rate of the necessary retreat from our coasts and the history they contain over the coming decades and centuries will be determined to a large extent by the patterns of consumption of today.

What other issues do you see as being in competition, however?

Daniel B.

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #61 on: November 02, 2017, 02:49:18 AM »
The effects are indeed minimal compared to other, more serious issues.  My big concern is the amount of money and attention given to this issue and the expense of these other problems.

The problem is that climate change is a long term, growing and accelerating issue that threatens the very land we live on. Humanity can doubtless survive by retreating from rising seas, building to withstand more powerful hurricanes, altering the crops used to fit changing climatic conditions etc, but the rate of the necessary retreat from our coasts and the history they contain over the coming decades and centuries will be determined to a large extent by the patterns of consumption of today.

What other issues do you see as being in competition, however?

Probably the biggest issue is land destruction.  This is occurring much more rapidly, has greater influences on biodiversity (including pushing many species to the brink of extinction), and is irreversible, compared to climate change, which will revert back to its natural state, if atmospheric levels were to fall back.  Pollution is a distant second, but still much more dire.  These are both long term issues and growing issues.

Paddy

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #62 on: November 02, 2017, 09:19:01 AM »
Addressing these issues doesn't tend to be in conflict with addressing climate change, however. For instance, if you cut down on fossil fuel use, or work on reforestation, you help to address all three. About the only notable exception was when diesel was touted as climate-friendly, and that's in the past now. Sustainability covers many issues, but climate change is clearly one of the big ones.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #63 on: November 02, 2017, 04:53:58 PM »

Shared Humanity

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #64 on: November 02, 2017, 04:58:55 PM »

Shared Humanity

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #65 on: November 02, 2017, 05:02:12 PM »
World Health Organization determines that changes in infectious disease transmission patterns are a likely major consequence of climate change. WHO concludes that more research is needed to learn more about the underlying complex causal relationships, and apply this information to the prediction of future impacts, using more complete, better validated, integrated, models.

http://www.who.int/globalchange/summary/en/index5.html

Shared Humanity

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #66 on: November 02, 2017, 05:04:59 PM »
Climate change plays role in spread of Zika virus in South, Central and North America.

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/scientists-tease-out-climate-role-zika-spread-20582

Shared Humanity

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #67 on: November 02, 2017, 05:21:07 PM »
WHO

Quantitative risk assessment
of the effects of climate change
on selected causes of death,
2030s and 2050s


http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/134014/1/9789241507691_eng.pdf

"Compared  with  a  future  without  climate  change,  the  following  additional  deaths  are projected  for  the  year  2030:  38  000  due  to  heat  exposure  in  elderly  people,  48  000 due  to  diarrhoea,  60  000  due  to  malaria,  and  95  000  due  to  childhood  undernutrition.  The   World Health Organization (WHO) projects a dramatic decline in child mortality, and this is  reflected  in  declining  climate  change  impacts  from  child  malnutrition  and  diarrhoeal  disease  between  2030  and  2050.  On  the  other  hand,  by  the  2050s,  deaths  related  to  heat  exposure  (over  100  000  per  year)  are  projected  to  increase.  Impacts  are  greatest  under a  low economic growth scenario because of higher rates of mortality projected in low- and middle-income countries. By 2050, impacts of climate change on mortality are projected to be greatest in south Asia. These results indicate that climate change will have a significant impact on child health by the 2030s. Under a base case socioeconomic scenario, we estimate approximately 250 000 additional deaths  due  to  climate  change  per  year  between  2030  and  2050.  These  numbers  do  not  represent a prediction of the overall impacts of climate change on health, since we could not quantify several important causal pathways."


Shared Humanity

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #68 on: November 02, 2017, 05:30:56 PM »
Estimates range from 20,000 to 70,000 killed during 2003 European heat wave.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_European_heat_wave

Extreme heat could kill 150,000 per year in Europe by 2100.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/08/european-heatwave-deaths-skyrocket-climate-study-170804234140485.html

Deaths from heatwaves were projected to increase by 5,400 percent, coastal foods by 3,780 percent, wildfires by 138 percent, river floods by 54 percent and windstorms by 20 percent.

Deaths from cold waves will decline by about 98 percent, said the team, which is not "sufficient to compensate for the other increases"...

...For the purposes of the study, the team assumed a rate of greenhouse gas emissions from burning coal, oil and gas that put the world on track for average global warming of three degrees Celsius by 2100 from 1990 levels.

The Paris Agreement, concluded by 195 nations in 2015, seeks to limit warming to under two degrees from levels before the Industrial Revolution, when fossil fuel burning kicked off.

The researchers also made no provision for additional measures being taken to boost human resilience to weather disasters.

In a comment on the study, Jae Young Lee and Ho Kim of the Seoul National University wrote its projections "could be overestimated".

« Last Edit: November 02, 2017, 05:42:25 PM by Shared Humanity »

Shared Humanity

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #69 on: November 02, 2017, 05:39:50 PM »
Harvests in U.S. to suffer from climate change.

https://phys.org/news/2017-01-harvests-climate.html

Daniel B.

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #70 on: November 02, 2017, 06:12:07 PM »
Yet, studies show that cold weather kills significantly more.  This study, published in the Lancet medical journal, found that between 1985 and 2012, cold weather was responsible for 7.3% of all deaths, while heat was responsible for 0.4%.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/05/150520193831.htm

Shared Humanity

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Shared Humanity

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #72 on: November 02, 2017, 07:12:06 PM »
A good overview of the potential health impacts of climate change.

https://19january2017snapshot.epa.gov/climate-impacts/climate-impacts-human-health_.html

One interesting impact on health mentioned in the above article is the impact that severe weather events and other catastrophes have on the mental health of the victims.

http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-ln-fires-mental-health-20171023-story.html

http://articles.latimes.com/2009/sep/06/local/me-fire-mental6
« Last Edit: November 02, 2017, 07:17:47 PM by Shared Humanity »

Shared Humanity

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #73 on: November 02, 2017, 07:20:19 PM »
Hurricane Harvey to have long term mental health consequences.

http://fortune.com/2017/09/06/hurricane-harvey-health-risks/

"In the long term, the primary public health concern is the mental health of the affected populations, such as Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), chronic depression and anxiety, and addiction. Mental health issues are often underreported in the immediate aftermath because such symptoms are typically not expressed for weeks, if not months, after a traumatic event.

In the case of Katrina, studies showed that 30% to 50% of all Katrina survivors suffered from PTSD. Note that a study conducted by Columbia University found that 36% of Katrina-affected children showed serious emotional disturbances. In the case of Hurricane Sandy, over 20% of residents reported PTSD, 33% reported depression, and 46% reported anxiety. When groups were compared by the degree of exposure to the hurricane, the higher-exposed group showed 30% more PTSD than the less-exposed group."

Shared Humanity

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #74 on: November 02, 2017, 08:29:32 PM »
While scientists cannot point to any specific storm or wildfire and say that it is the result of global warming, they do say that the severity of storms, droughts, heat waves etc. will increase due to global warming.

An extensive study of the health effects of Katrina on low income residents of New Orleans uncovered serious, long term impacts on health.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3276074/

wili

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #75 on: November 02, 2017, 09:00:26 PM »
DB is just repeatedly spewing long-debunked standard denialist memes. (I thought we discouraged such trollish behavior on this forum, at least).

See: https://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-positives-negatives.htm

Climate myth # 3 "It's not bad"

What the science says: Negative impacts of global warming on agriculture, health & environment far outweigh any positives.

...
Quote
Health

Warmer winters would mean fewer deaths, particularly among vulnerable groups like the aged. However, the same groups are also vulnerable to additional heat, and deaths attributable to heatwaves are expected to be approximately five times as great as winter deaths prevented. It is widely believed that warmer climes will encourage migration of disease-bearing insects like mosquitoes and malaria is already appearing in places it hasn’t been seen before.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Shared Humanity

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #76 on: November 02, 2017, 09:09:20 PM »
DB is just repeatedly spewing long-debunked standard denialist memes. (I thought we discouraged such trollish behavior on this forum, at least).

See: https://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-positives-negatives.htm


Yep. Put him on ignore yesterday because I got tired of reading his bullshit. Decided instead to provide health related impact research for visitors who want to understand some of the health related effects of climate change.

Daniel B.

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #77 on: November 02, 2017, 09:11:36 PM »
DB is just repeatedly spewing long-debunked standard denialist memes. (I thought we discouraged such trollish behavior on this forum, at least).

See: https://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-positives-negatives.htm

Climate myth # 3 "It's not bad"

What the science says: Negative impacts of global warming on agriculture, health & environment far outweigh any positives.

...
Quote
Health

Warmer winters would mean fewer deaths, particularly among vulnerable groups like the aged. However, the same groups are also vulnerable to additional heat, and deaths attributable to heatwaves are expected to be approximately five times as great as winter deaths prevented. It is widely believed that warmer climes will encourage migration of disease-bearing insects like mosquitoes and malaria is already appearing in places it hasn’t been seen before.

I can see you are really scraping the bottom of the barrel when you have to resort to quotes from John and Dana’s website.  I guess I read it on the internet, so it must be true is alive and well here.  You can deny the research from well-respected scientists, and established journals all you like, but it will not change the truth.  This seems to popular among the extremists in any area; they turn a blind eye and deaf ear to anything and anyone that does not conform to their personal beliefs.  The other common theme is to refer to this research as performed by ill-informed alarmists or deniers.  I guess it is just circular reasoning, and the more people you can coerce, the bigger the circle.  Good luck with that.

ghoti

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #78 on: November 02, 2017, 11:51:22 PM »
The "decrease in winter death" is also an artifact of including the millions of deaths as a result of the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918. There is no significant decreasing slope to the line of winter mortality when that isn't included.

wili

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #79 on: November 03, 2017, 12:05:40 AM »
Disparaging a science site to avoid the truth...another well worn denialist ploy.

Keep at it. With every post you are further proving my point.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Daniel B.

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #80 on: November 03, 2017, 02:28:53 AM »
Disparaging a science site to avoid the truth...another well worn denialist ploy.

Keep at it. With every post you are further proving my point.

I see you are proving mine.

Daniel B.

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #81 on: November 03, 2017, 01:06:21 PM »
Since Terry's article mentioned productivity as well as health effects, so reporting on the economic growth seemed appropriate.  Focusing on one aspect of the change, while ignoring the bigger picture seems rather narrow-minded or possibly, self-serving.  Sure, heat-related deaths have increased.  But at the same time, cold-related deaths have subsided.  That is similar to those railing against vaccines, because of the few negative results, while ignoring the decrease in mortality from the disease itself.  The popular meme these days seems to be to portray anyone who says anything good about the changing climate as being a denier.  I thought that type of groupthink ended after 1984 came and went.


That's certainly a meme that I subscribe to.


BTW
Orwell was an optimist.


Terry

You seem to belong to the crowd here that is rather nostalgic to a past idyllic climate Eden, which never existed.  They firmly believe that all change is inherently bad, and resist change vehemently.  They believe that recent climate events are a new creation, which never occurred in the past, or if they did, are much worse today, even though the evidence is not so.  Then they link to websites which excel in exaggeration, in vain attempts to sway the uninformed (many do not even try to hide the fact that they do this).  Lastly, as you stated, any research or data which is presented that opposes this viewpoint is called BS, and the scientists reporting this is referred to as a denier.  It looks as if this is a self-acclamation, as those belonging to this group appear to be the true deniers.  True scientists do not seek evidence which supports their own premises only, and ignore the rest.  Rather, they evaluate all the evidence, and come to conclusions based thereon.  Scientists today seem to fighting against this group of activists, which tries to "debunk" their research through sleight of hand or cherry-picked data.  Amazing how certain beliefs can be "proven" based on limited data, carefully chosen from the whole dataset, or by the inclusion of a certain outlying event.  I actually thought this site was more scientific than that.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #82 on: November 03, 2017, 02:12:51 PM »
Rising temperatures present risks to the health of workers in a variety of industries and impact productivity.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4202759/

Shared Humanity

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #83 on: November 03, 2017, 02:16:55 PM »
Rising temperatures due to climate change and the increased frequency and intensity of associated "heat waves can exceed the physiological adaptive capacity of vulnerable population groups. Individuals over the age of 60 years are consistently the most vulnerable, with 82%–92% of excess mortality occurring in this group. Risks for heat-related illness or injuries are compounded for people with obesity, cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease and diabetes mellitus. These conditions decrease the body’s ability to adapt to changes in environmental conditions..."

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2900329/

Shared Humanity

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Shared Humanity

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #85 on: November 03, 2017, 02:30:43 PM »
AGW linked to widespread infestations of trolls on websites designed to keep public informed.

Beginning as a nuisance and remaining hidden from officials, the rapidly increasing incidence of troll infestations has now been declared a public health crisis by the CDC in Atlanta.

"Infestations can be highly resistant to efforts to eradicate them, as pernicious as a colony of blood engorged bed bugs." an official at CDC said. "Our studies suggest the most effective method to address the issue is to remove their source of food."

Stop feeding the trolls!
« Last Edit: November 03, 2017, 02:44:32 PM by Shared Humanity »

wili

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #86 on: November 03, 2017, 08:56:07 PM »
"I actually thought this site was more scientific than that."

LOL. You are the least scientific poster on here!

And the lambasting the entire site on baseless charges, you've hit a new low here, even for a soulless troll.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Sigmetnow

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #87 on: November 12, 2017, 04:42:18 PM »
27 Ways a Heat Wave Can Kill You — A Dire Warning for a Warming Planet
New research in health and climate change suggests people are more susceptible to heat-related death than once thought. ‘It’s not just the elderly. It’s everybody.'
Quote
In reviewing the literature, Mora and his colleagues identified five heat-induced physiological mechanisms, including inadequate blood flow to organs and toxic cells, and seven organs—brain, heart, lung, kidneys, liver, intestines and pancreas—that those mechanisms can impact. They then found medical evidence that 27 heat-induced interactions are possible. ...
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/10112017/heat-wave-deaths-climate-change-misdiagnosed-health-lancet
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

gerontocrat

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #88 on: November 17, 2017, 03:33:03 PM »
It is official at the EPA (and elsewhere) - air pollution is good for you.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/nov/16/modern-air-is-too-clean-the-rise-of-air-pollution-denial

" 'Modern air is too clean': the rise of air pollution denial
US sceptics are questioning the science behind air pollution and mortality, a trend that is starting to appear in countries where the air is much more toxic.

Despite report after report linking air pollution to deterioration of the lungs, heart and brain, Prof Robert Phalen believes the air is “too clean” for children.

After all, everybody needs a bit of immune-system-boosting dirt in their lungs.

“Modern air is a little too clean for optimum health,” he told the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), one of the world’s largest scientific societies, in 2012.

“My most important role in science is causing trouble and controversy,” he added.

Now the director of the air pollution health effects laboratory at the University of California, Irvine, is set to be appointed as a scientific adviser by Donald Trump’s Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). ".

And so it goes on.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #89 on: December 22, 2017, 04:13:33 PM »
Humidity may prove breaking point for some areas as temperatures rise, says study
From US south to China, heat stress could exceed human endurance
Quote
Climate scientists say that killer heat waves will become increasingly prevalent in many regions as climate warms. However, most projections leave out a major factor that could worsen things: humidity, which can greatly magnify the effects of heat alone. Now, a new global study projects that in coming decades the effects of high humidity in many areas will dramatically increase. At times, they may surpass humans' ability to work or, in some cases, even survive. Health and economies would suffer, especially in regions where people work outside and have little access to air conditioning. Potentially affected regions include large swaths of the already muggy southeastern United States, the Amazon, western and central Africa, southern areas of the Mideast and Arabian peninsula, northern India and eastern China.

"The conditions we're talking about basically never occur now--people in most places have never experienced them," said lead author Ethan Coffel, a graduate student at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. "But they're projected to occur close to the end of the century." The study will appears this week in the journal Environmental Research Letters. ...
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-12/teia-hmp122017.php


“From an Indian perspective, this is utterly frightening.
1/ This will happen in the Indo-Gangetic belt, with most dependant on agriculture, and thus the whims of weather ”
https://twitter.com/ankitbhardy/status/944207421060276225
Brief Twitter thread at link.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #90 on: January 11, 2018, 03:06:32 AM »
Alaska releases first detailed report on negative health impacts of climate change
Quote
On Monday, the state Division of Public Health released the first comprehensive report about the adverse health impacts climate change could have on Alaskans.

The sweeping list of potential health implications include the introduction of new diseases; an increase in accidents; an increase in anxiety and depression; a worsening allergy season; and increasingly dangerous hunting and harvesting conditions limiting subsistence activity.

State health officials say the 77-page report is meant to raise awareness of how climate change could impact public health in a state where, over the past century, the air and water temperatures have warmed faster than the rest of the country. ...
https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/health/2018/01/08/alaska-releases-first-statewide-report-on-negative-health-impacts-of-climate-change/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

CDN_dude

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #91 on: January 18, 2018, 02:51:16 AM »
Contra the EPA's claim that unclean air is good for you, an important new study finds that elevated CO2 levels have a direct negative effect on human cognition.

https://thinkprogress.org/exclusive-elevated-co2-levels-directly-affect-human-cognition-new-harvard-study-shows-2748e7378941/

This is of particular concern since Co2 levels inside buildings are highly elevated compared to outside. Furthermore, the threshold at which impacts start to occur is unknown but may be as low as 600ppm! A figure we are on track to achieve everywhere in the world by the end of the century.

Daniel B.

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #92 on: January 18, 2018, 04:25:11 PM »
Contra the EPA's claim that unclean air is good for you, an important new study finds that elevated CO2 levels have a direct negative effect on human cognition.

https://thinkprogress.org/exclusive-elevated-co2-levels-directly-affect-human-cognition-new-harvard-study-shows-2748e7378941/

This is of particular concern since Co2 levels inside buildings are highly elevated compared to outside. Furthermore, the threshold at which impacts start to occur is unknown but may be as low as 600ppm! A figure we are on track to achieve everywhere in the world by the end of the century.

This has been known by occupation groups, such as OSHA.  The limit for an 8-hour day is still 5000 ppm, but other groups recommend 1000 ppm for living areas.  Concentrations under that have not shown any detrimental health effects.  As concentrations rise about 1000 ppm, brain activity starts to slow, but does not show significant slowing until 2500 ppm.

MrVisible

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #93 on: January 19, 2018, 02:08:14 AM »
The studies that established the 5000ppm threshold for an 8-hour day were conducted on US Navy sailors back in the 1970s, and they specifically state that they don't apply to vulnerable populations.

Quote
The recommended desirability of increasing the allowable limits for daily exposure to carbon dioxide is based upon the recognition that work in any unusual atmospheric environment requires normal health and the absence of active medical conditions which would be exaggerated by the work and the environment. By appropriate selection of normal individuals fo work in atmospheres containing CO2, effects can be expected to be minimal and acceptable.

By 2100 we're looking at 1000ppm of CO2 in our atmosphere. For our entire history as a species, we've been at 280ppm or less.

So, my point is... Can human babies gestate and develop healthily in an atmosphere with three times the normal quantity of CO2?

I haven't found any research on the effects of CO2 on people, but there's a lot of evidence accumulating that points to the fact that child health is already being affected by climate change in a variety of ways.

Negative birth outcomes linked to air pollution exposure early in pregnancy, study finds

Climate change and the potential effects on maternal and pregnancy outcomes: an assessment of the most vulnerable – the mother, fetus, and newborn child

Air pollution linked to increased mental illness in children

Danger in the air: How air pollution can affect brain development in young children

Global Warming May Harm Children for Life

Whether we survive as a species isn't going to depend on how healthy adult sailors can deal with CO2 on the job. It's going to depend on how well infants can gestate and develop in the atmosphere we're creating.

It seems to me like it'd be worth doing some multigenerational lab rat experiments to see what we're going to be up against.

Daniel B.

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #94 on: January 19, 2018, 05:58:53 PM »
By 2100 we're looking at 1000ppm of CO2 in our atmosphere. For our entire history as a species, we've been at 280ppm or less.

Not sure how you are arriving at the figure.  From 1980-2010, the atmospheric CO2 level increase 50 ppm.  Even accounting for an upward rise from that trend (and no mitigating efforts), the maximum value we would reach by 2100 is 600 ppm.  No detrimental health effects have been documented at the level.

MrVisible

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #95 on: January 19, 2018, 06:15:51 PM »
I'm going by the IPCC projections.

Do you have research showing that exposure to CO2 levels no lower than 600ppm, and considerably higher most of the time, does no harm whatsoever to infants and gestating fetuses? Because that would be what I'm looking for here. It'd be very reassuring.

We actually don't know what will happen when we're immersed in high concentrations of CO2 every single day from the time we're conceived. Don't you think we might want to do some research to find out for sure?

Daniel B.

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #96 on: January 19, 2018, 07:09:05 PM »
I'm going by the IPCC projections.

Do you have research showing that exposure to CO2 levels no lower than 600ppm, and considerably higher most of the time, does no harm whatsoever to infants and gestating fetuses? Because that would be what I'm looking for here. It'd be very reassuring.

We actually don't know what will happen when we're immersed in high concentrations of CO2 every single day from the time we're conceived. Don't you think we might want to do some research to find out for sure?

There is very little documentation at the lower levels.  The following is a good guide to the health effects of intermediate concentrations (1 - 5%).  No noticeable effects have been observed at concentrations below 1%, except for a slightly increase respiratory rate.  The only negative implications for infants is the greater potential for body heat loss.  Oftentimes, the indoor concentration can exceed 1%, so going outdoors (even at concentrations of 600 ppm) really is a breath of fresh air.

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.464.2827&rep=rep1&type=pdf

MrVisible

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #97 on: January 20, 2018, 01:07:39 AM »
Quote
No noticeable effects have been observed at concentrations below 1%, except for a slightly increase respiratory rate.

That's not true.

Is CO2 an Indoor Pollutant? Direct Effects of Low-to-Moderate CO2 Concentrations on Human Decision-Making Performance

Quote
Relative to 600 ppm, at 1,000 ppm CO2, moderate and statistically significant decrements occurred in six of nine scales of decision-making performance. At 2,500 ppm, large and statistically significant reductions occurred in seven scales of decision-making performance (raw score ratios, 0.06–0.56), but performance on the focused activity scale increased.

While the paper you posted is a good overview of the field from 2003, a lot has changed since then.

This podcast sums the issue up well, and there's a huge list of citations included.




Daniel B.

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #98 on: January 20, 2018, 02:43:55 PM »
Quote
No noticeable effects have been observed at concentrations below 1%, except for a slightly increase respiratory rate.

That's not true.

Is CO2 an Indoor Pollutant? Direct Effects of Low-to-Moderate CO2 Concentrations on Human Decision-Making Performance

Quote
Relative to 600 ppm, at 1,000 ppm CO2, moderate and statistically significant decrements occurred in six of nine scales of decision-making performance. At 2,500 ppm, large and statistically significant reductions occurred in seven scales of decision-making performance (raw score ratios, 0.06–0.56), but performance on the focused activity scale increased.

While the paper you posted is a good overview of the field from 2003, a lot has changed since then.

This podcast sums the issue up well, and there's a huge list of citations included.

You are saying the same thing.  That health effects are noticeable at 1000 ppm, but not at 600!

oren

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Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« Reply #99 on: January 20, 2018, 03:08:53 PM »
By 2100 we're looking at 1000ppm of CO2 in our atmosphere. For our entire history as a species, we've been at 280ppm or less.
Not sure how you are arriving at the figure.  From 1980-2010, the atmospheric CO2 level increase 50 ppm.  Even accounting for an upward rise from that trend (and no mitigating efforts), the maximum value we would reach by 2100 is 600 ppm.  No detrimental health effects have been documented at the level.
You may have missed the acceleration of the annual increase in CO2. 600 ppm is more like a minimum, if the acceleration stops and the rate of increase remains at 2.25-2.5 ppm/year.
But human population is growing, affluence is growing in parallel, and this is how the IPCC got to >900 ppm by the year 2100 in RCP 8.5 - the non-mitigation scenario. Not to mention natural positive feedbacks that could kick in (or perhaps have already kicked in). So it's not as clear-cut as you claim it to be.