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Author Topic: Latest PIOMAS update (April)  (Read 1358044 times)

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3600 on: March 18, 2021, 01:54:09 PM »
PIOMAS has updated the gridded thickness data up to the 15th of March. Volume calculated from that thickness was 21.72[1000km3]. That is the fifth lowest value compared with previous years.

Here is the animation.

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3601 on: March 18, 2021, 01:54:57 PM »
Updated Fram volume export graph.

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3602 on: March 18, 2021, 01:56:54 PM »
Updated volume and volume-anomaly graphs.

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3603 on: March 18, 2021, 01:58:35 PM »
Some people have good use for the updated regional data files.

daily:
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas/data/PIOMAS-regional.txt.gz

gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3604 on: March 18, 2021, 06:35:00 PM »
So here is the PIOMAS data in the format I use for JAXA extent data

PIOMAS  Volume as at 15 Mar 2021  21,715 KM3

- Volume gain from minimum on this date is 17,686 km3, 874 km3, (5%),  more than the 10 year average of 16,812 km3.

- Volume is at position #5 in the satellite record

- Volume is  352 km3 LESS than 2013
- Volume is  2,070 km3 MORE than 2017
- Volume is  327 km3 LESS than 2020
- Volume is  43 km3 LESS than 2010's average

Projections.

Average remaining volume gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum volume in April 2021 of 22,882 km3, 2,100 km3 above the 2017 record low maximum volume of 20,782 km3.
_____________________________________________________
Daily volume increase well above average in the first 2 weeks of March
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N.B. Click on image  for full-size#
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The Walrus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3605 on: March 18, 2021, 07:28:19 PM »
What is intrigue with the volume anomaly graph is that 19 out of 20 years over the past two decades show a fairly even anomaly from Jan. through May.  2021 was the exception, starting with a higher anomaly in Jan. and decreasing significantly until March.  Any thoughts?

kassy

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3606 on: March 19, 2021, 10:52:11 AM »
It is also very close to 2013. This is just delayed ice growth.
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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3607 on: March 19, 2021, 11:25:05 AM »
Some of my contributions. Stand out is the higher volume along the Russian Arctic coast. Unlikely to see a repeat of the early opening last year
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3608 on: March 19, 2021, 02:06:27 PM »
It is also very close to 2013. This is just delayed ice growth.
As can be shown in the Laptev, where refreeze was very late. (Ignore erratic thickness data in September 20. It happens when both volume and area are very low).

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gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3609 on: March 19, 2021, 02:48:14 PM »
Here are some thickness graphs to Mid-march.

Currently at 2010's average as near as makes no difference.

click to enlarge images
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Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (April)
« Reply #3610 on: April 05, 2021, 07:46:51 PM »
PIOMAS gridded thickness data was updated. Volume (calculated from thickness) at 31st of March was 22.47[1000km3], which is the 6th lowest value for that day of the year.

Here is the animation.

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (April)
« Reply #3611 on: April 05, 2021, 07:49:22 PM »
Updated volume and volume-anomaly graphs.

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (April)
« Reply #3612 on: April 05, 2021, 07:50:27 PM »
Updated Fram volume export graph.

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (April)
« Reply #3613 on: April 05, 2021, 07:53:59 PM »
Thickness map of March 2021, compared with previous years and their diff'd.

Wipneus

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gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (April)
« Reply #3615 on: April 05, 2021, 09:50:01 PM »
Some people have good use for the updated regional data files:
One hopes it is good use

PIOMAS  Volume as at 31 Mar 2021  22,473 KM3

- Volume gain from minimum on this date is 18,444 km3, 879 km3, (5%),  more than the 10 year average of 17,565 km3.

- Volume is at position #6 in the satellite record

- Volume is  377 km3 LESS than 2013
- Volume is  2,089 km3 MORE than 2017
- Volume is  220 km3 LESS than 2020
- Volume is  72 km3 LESS than 2010's average
Projections.

Average remaining volume gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum volume in April 2021 of 22,887 km3, 2,105 km3 above the 2017 record low maximum volume of 20,782 km3.
___________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image  for full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (April)
« Reply #3616 on: April 05, 2021, 10:06:06 PM »
We talk about pros & cons of volume, area, and extent a lot. I attach the graphs of those 3 measures for the CAB (as defined by Wipneus).

Summer ice volume minimum of the CAB is now well under half of what it was in the 1980's.
Extent - at most around 30% loss, area approaching 50% loss.

The winter / spring volume maximum is now 25% lower than in the 1980's. Extent and area - just about zilch change.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (April)
« Reply #3617 on: April 05, 2021, 10:47:51 PM »
I attach the March Monthly Average Volume + deviations from the trend graph.

The March 21 average of 21,628 km3 is 5th lowest in the satellite record, 329 km3 less than March 2020, but 742 km3 above the linear trend value for March '21, and only 85 km3 below the 2010's March average.

click to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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VeliAlbertKallio

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (April)
« Reply #3618 on: April 06, 2021, 12:01:11 AM »
Central Arctic is showing ice volume weakness in parallel to 2017 & 2018, much of overall outcome of ice volume minimum depends on peripheral seas and coastal seas if volume is going to hold on.
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The Walrus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (April)
« Reply #3619 on: April 06, 2021, 01:30:43 AM »
I attach the March Monthly Average Volume + deviations from the trend graph.

The March 21 average of 21,628 km3 is 5th lowest in the satellite record, 329 km3 less than March 2020, but 742 km3 above the linear trend value for March '21, and only 85 km3 below the 2010's March average.

click to enlarge


Will the 16-year deviation oscillation continue? 

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (April)
« Reply #3620 on: April 06, 2021, 09:32:46 AM »
A few images from myself
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel