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Author Topic: IJIS/JAXA poll?  (Read 4173 times)

anotheramethyst

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IJIS/JAXA poll?
« on: May 09, 2016, 07:51:07 AM »
I don't want to jump the gun here, it's up to Neven, but can we start the polls on the minimum soon?  I know we have limited sources of data this year unfortunately.  I will throw in my totally uneducated and intuitive vote but I really want to know what all you knowledgeable people are predicting.  Thoughts?  Is it too soon?

Juan C. García

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Re: IJIS/JAXA poll?
« Reply #1 on: May 09, 2016, 08:17:52 AM »
I didn´t know we have limited sources, so it is up to Neven to decide if this poll must go on. I just think that this year start with an impressive collection of events, so I will apreciate if we proceed with the poll and find out what we are thinking. Isn't it true?  ;)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

jdallen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA poll?
« Reply #2 on: May 09, 2016, 08:18:41 AM »
I don't want to jump the gun here, it's up to Neven, but can we start the polls on the minimum soon?  I know we have limited sources of data this year unfortunately.  I will throw in my totally uneducated and intuitive vote but I really want to know what all you knowledgeable people are predicting.  Thoughts?  Is it too soon?
At this point, I'd say the best we can do is probabilities, not absolute predictions.  There is too much which can change, it's too stochastic.

But to humor your intent, let me post this.

Baseline averages              2003-2015   2007-2015
2003-2015 Average Loss         7804249         8243351
5/8 2016 Extent                      11782166     11782166
2003-2015 Loss STDEV            862377          580786
+2                                             5702671       4700387
+1                                             4840294       4119601
Average                                     3977917       3538815
-1                                              3115540       2958029
-2                                              2253163       2377243

So, if we use 2007+ as our baseline, we've got pretty close to a 50% chance of passing 2012.  I'd say that's the best we can predict at this point.

Either baseline, we have close to a 66% chance of beating 2007/2011/2015.  I'd say that's the best prediction we can make at this point.
This space for Rent.

DavidR

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Re: IJIS/JAXA poll?
« Reply #3 on: May 09, 2016, 10:39:08 AM »
In the past polls have opened at the start of each month from June 1st. I  expect Neven is intending to  continue this practice.
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

anotheramethyst

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Re: IJIS/JAXA poll?
« Reply #4 on: May 10, 2016, 07:53:38 AM »
Aaaah OK so I'm a few weeks early... Much like the ice haha

abbottisgone

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Re: IJIS/JAXA poll?
« Reply #5 on: May 10, 2016, 08:01:32 AM »
..hilarious  :o

no, but seriously: how many two days periods have century break averages in the sattelite record?

..
But I left school and grew my hair
They didn't understand
They wanted me to be respected as
A doctor or a lawyer man
But I had other plans..........

DavidR

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Re: IJIS/JAXA poll?
« Reply #6 on: May 10, 2016, 11:11:17 AM »
..hilarious  :o

no, but seriously: how many two days periods have century break averages in the sattelite record?
Counting only till the end of May, there have been 26 including 6 in 2004 and 4 this year.  The longest run was three successive days from Apr 10 - Apr 12 2004. We need 101K tomorrow to  create a third succesive two day, double century.

After May they are commonplace.
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

abbottisgone

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Re: IJIS/JAXA poll?
« Reply #7 on: May 11, 2016, 05:25:32 AM »
Nothing like quantified argument: cheers!

Such things are very worthwhile knowing I feel  ;)
..
But I left school and grew my hair
They didn't understand
They wanted me to be respected as
A doctor or a lawyer man
But I had other plans..........

DavidR

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Re: IJIS/JAXA poll?
« Reply #8 on: May 11, 2016, 06:45:51 AM »
Nothing like quantified argument: cheers!

Such things are very worthwhile knowing I feel  ;)
This didn't happen however the extent of the record grew to  over 451,000. I am also keeping track on the rate of decline from 12 Million.  2016 is currently leading on this measure despite starting in  cooler period of the year than the later starters.   
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

abbottisgone

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Re: IJIS/JAXA poll?
« Reply #9 on: May 11, 2016, 02:31:22 PM »
Nothing like quantified argument: cheers!

Such things are very worthwhile knowing I feel  ;)
This didn't happen however the extent of the record grew to  over 451,000. I am also keeping track on the rate of decline from 12 Million.  2016 is currently leading on this measure despite starting in  cooler period of the year than the later starters.
No, about two minutes after I read your comments espen posted the numbers saying it only went down 50 odd k that day, lol!

... That would be ye olde sinusoidality reminding us the earth ain't licked yet thankfully enough...
..
But I left school and grew my hair
They didn't understand
They wanted me to be respected as
A doctor or a lawyer man
But I had other plans..........

philiponfire

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Re: IJIS/JAXA poll?
« Reply #10 on: June 04, 2016, 06:10:17 PM »
I make use of MASIE and using that data set I predict 2.5 M km2 plus or minus 0.25 M Km2.