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What will the ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September daily minimum be?

Above 5.0  million km2
0 (0%)
Between 4.75 and 5.0 million km2
0 (0%)
Between 4.5 and 4.75 million km2
0 (0%)
Between 4.25 and 4.5 million km2
1 (0.7%)
Between 4.0 and 4.25 million km2
5 (3.6%)
Between 3.75 and 4.0 million km2
5 (3.6%)
Between 3.5 and 3.75 million km2
9 (6.5%)
Between 3.25 and 3.5 million km2
10 (7.2%)
Between 3.0 and 3.25 million km2
18 (13%)
Between 2.75 and 3.0 million km2
25 (18.1%)
Between 2.5 and 2.75 million km2
12 (8.7%)
Between 2.25 and 2.5 million km2
11 (8%)
Between 2.0 and 2.25 million km2
17 (12.3%)
Between 1.75 and 2.0 million km2
8 (5.8%)
Between 1.5 and 1.75 million km2
6 (4.3%)
Between 1.25 and 1.5 million km2
4 (2.9%)
Between 1.0 and 1.25 million km2
4 (2.9%)
Between 0.75 and 1.0 million km2
1 (0.7%)
Between 0.5 and 0.75 million km2
1 (0.7%)
Between 0.25 and 0.5 million km2
0 (0%)
Between 0.0 and 0.25 million km2
1 (0.7%)

Total Members Voted: 134

Voting closed: May 19, 2016, 08:05:35 AM

Author Topic: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll  (Read 42473 times)

Siffy

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #50 on: May 10, 2016, 07:05:40 PM »
My apologies if my earlier post came across as insulting.  :-\

It is going to take a lot of heat to end with less than 1Mkm2, but everything is possible.

Isn't that heat energy available every year? The incoming insolation is certainly capable of melting all that ice, it just needs to actually get absorbed instead of bounced back out into space. That's part of what makes this year so different, with places like the Beaufort sea being so exposed that's large amounts of energy getting taken in instead of being bounced out.

The current GFS forecast is projecting that much of the snow cover in the Ice around and near the Beaufort is going to get melted as well allowing even more of that energy to stay in the local energy system.

Apologies for the large image below but here's what GFS thinks will happen to the snow cover and it looks rather dramatic to me.

OSweetMrMath

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #51 on: May 10, 2016, 07:49:28 PM »
I really don't understand all the posts which are acting like this will be a 'priming' year and won't breach the 2012 record. I mean yea it's totally possible it won't if the weather changes massively and we get really aggresive anti melt conditions but literally nothing it hinting at this right now, even just middling conditions for melt look like it will slaughter the 2012 record.

There aren't all that many posts or votes arguing against a new record. At this moment, 77 out of 99 total votes are for 3.25 or less, nearly at the record or below.

I'm one of the few not predicting a record. My reasoning is, first, I've predicted records before and been wrong, so I'm reluctant to predict records again. Second, contrary to your assessment that middling conditions will break the record, I believe that setting a record requires extraordinary conditions. We've had record setting conditions so far, but I'm not willing to predict that these conditions will continue all the way through the summer.

magnamentis

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #52 on: May 10, 2016, 08:11:36 PM »
i thought i'll be the outlier but as it seems we ( the Between 2.75 and 3.0 million km2 voters ) are going to overtake LOL

each day that passes by while keeping the distance to 2012 values makes a new record more probable and if the entire CAB ice will start to rotate and eventually drift southward we're in, which is somehow what i expect, that a huge junk will disconnect from the landfast ice and drift to one of the edges that are more insolated even in late august than 85-90 north. pure speculation maybe but a thought that i will keep an eye on.

seaicesailor

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #53 on: May 10, 2016, 10:24:20 PM »
My apologies if my earlier post came across as insulting.  :-\

It is going to take a lot of heat to end with less than 1Mkm2, but everything is possible.

Isn't that heat energy available every year? The incoming insolation is certainly capable of melting all that ice, it just needs to actually get absorbed instead of bounced back out into space. That's part of what makes this year so different, with places like the Beaufort sea being so exposed that's large amounts of energy getting taken in instead of being bounced out.

The current GFS forecast is projecting that much of the snow cover in the Ice around and near the Beaufort is going to get melted as well allowing even more of that energy to stay in the local energy system.

Apologies for the large image below but here's what GFS thinks will happen to the snow cover and it looks rather dramatic to me.

I for one did not feel insulted :) nor by 6roucho comments obviously (hope you guys don't take my way of expressing as insulting, it is not!). I respect your prediction but see very difficult to happen.

The map you posted shows widespread surface melting for Pacific side, melt ponds will start to appear, etc. melting at full throttle never said worse. In the last frame the limit of surface melting defines very well the beginning of the ice that I believe is either old or thick or both, ridged, and covered with thicker snow. Hence my (initial) guess that this year will be close to 2012 but not so sure it will beat it. It is all pure speculation at this point.
What would make a huge difference (apart form this extraordinary beginning of season) is a continuation of Fram export during Summer (it practically ceases in Summer), which I have never observed, but I have read it happened in 2007. If such thing happens, then 2016 or especially 2017 could become really dramatic.

AbruptSLR

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #54 on: May 10, 2016, 10:26:59 PM »
Obviously, we cannot ignore the importance of ice export out of the Fram (see attached image & linked reference):

Smedsrud et al (2016), "Fram Strait sea ice export variability and September Arctic sea ice extent over the last 80 years", The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-79

http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/tc-2016-79/tc-2016-79.pdf

Extract: "The Arctic Basin exports between 600,000 and 1 million km² of it’s sea ice cover southwards through Fram Strait each year, or about 10 % of the sea-ice covered area inside the basin."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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theoldinsane

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #55 on: May 10, 2016, 11:22:17 PM »
The GAC in 2012 was a perfect storm with a perfect timing. The ice has degraded further since 2012 so the "only" thing needed this year is a perfect storm with a not so perfect timing (july or maybe september) or a not so perfect storm but with a perfect timing (august).

And the possibility for a storm increases for every year passing because of the increased heat in the system.

This are two reasons that make a vicious circle IMO. Maybe the ice do not disappear 2016 if no storm occurs, but it will happen in the not so distant future. Say before 2020.

my 2 cents

My choice is 2.75-3.00


misanthroptimist

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #56 on: May 10, 2016, 11:37:09 PM »
My guess is between 2.75 and 3.0 Mkm2. It's based on the huge head start we have on previous years, low snow cover, and some of the other factors covered above by others. As always, though, weather is the big player. I have no idea what the weather will be

Richard Rathbone

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #57 on: May 10, 2016, 11:46:57 PM »
5+ has to be the one to go for.

May needs to be relatively hot for melting momentum to run through into the Central Arctic, and so far its looking to be average by 1980-2015 standards. No early melt ponds means lots of ice left at the end of the year. With the 4 bins for the price of 1 offer at the top end, 5+ has to be the best bet.

AbruptSLR

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #58 on: May 11, 2016, 12:00:26 AM »
5+ has to be the one to go for.

May needs to be relatively hot for melting momentum to run through into the Central Arctic, and so far its looking to be average by 1980-2015 standards. No early melt ponds means lots of ice left at the end of the year. With the 4 bins for the price of 1 offer at the top end, 5+ has to be the best bet.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion.
« Last Edit: May 11, 2016, 12:10:45 AM by AbruptSLR »
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DoomInTheUK

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #59 on: May 11, 2016, 12:09:18 AM »
The actual value of the vote matters very little. I find the reasoning behind the guess as far more interesting.

It feels like we have passed a tipping point where the consensus has switched from event a/b/c could be bad for the ice to one where often events are highlighted that may slow the melt.

Nothing scientific, just my gut feeling having lurked around here for several years.

magnamentis

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #60 on: May 11, 2016, 12:33:45 AM »
@DoomInTheUK

yep, it's like a kind of brainstorming where everything is laid out in front of our "sensors" and one can observe the thinking patterns change, while the noobs like myself are racing and the specialists are flattening the waves  ;)

johnm33

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #61 on: May 11, 2016, 10:49:50 AM »
I think less than 4, lack of melt ponds could just mean a thin ice crust over snow, the ice is smashed far more at the mercy of the wind than I've ever seen it. Moving vast volumes of ice around will provoke unprecedented wave activity, the atmosphere is warmer than 'normal' the arriving Atlantic waters show up as anomalously warm, so apart from that chunk of ice shelf stuck on [?] bank and some thick multi-year ice everything could be smashed or melt out. So 1.75-2 is my pessimistic middle ground.

DoomInTheUK

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #62 on: May 11, 2016, 12:01:27 PM »
Moving vast volumes of ice around will provoke unprecedented wave activity.

Minor issue of clarity here. The ice in water will always dampen waves down. Only wind across water will generate the kind of waves we're interested in, and the longer the fetch, the bigger the waves.
It's probably just being pedantic, but it's the space between the floes that allow for the waves, and the leads opening so far won't allow for ice killing waves. The large open spaces where ice has melted out however.....

johnm33

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #63 on: May 11, 2016, 01:07:53 PM »
"minor issue" Ok, with the leads we have the winds gain more purchase, the ice is fairly young and eminently crushable that gives it a higher profile, > more purchase more leads, less new ice formed as the season runs. Given sufficient space/enough leads huge areas of ice will move around, water will move in to replace that volume, pound for pound, that will generate internal waves, how these interact with currents and or gravity/surface waves is anyones guess, mine is that a significant fraction will be bad for the ice. Given the persistence of winds so far this year, Waynes 'big blue' forecast, and the already present mobility of the ice I expect the surface waves this year to skirt the limits of previous extremes nor would I be surprised if those extremes were exceeded. Given the elevated salinity of deeper Arctic waters internal waves once generated will be particularly energetic, and with their immense size the ice will slide down either side of the crest thus generating more leads. We will see this happen, but perhaps not this year or the next few, but it's looking very possible.
Internal waves

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internal_wave

Jim Pettit

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #64 on: May 11, 2016, 01:09:51 PM »
I voted 3.5-3.75. IOW, not a record, but almost certainly second lowest, due in very large part to the huge difference between 1st place (3.12 M) and 2nd (4.07 M).

2012 had two very rapid melt periods:

1) The first was a one-week early June loss of a million km2--something never before seen in the satellite record. But after that, 2012's trajectory shallowed out a bit, and the lead it had built up virtually vanished over the ensuing weeks. Twas only the second rapid melt period that kicked things into high gear:

2) The early-August GAC, which saw yet *another* one-week decrease of about a million km, again something not seen before or since. And for those who say the GAC didn't have much effect, I'd remind you that as of the day the storm began--August 3rd--2012 and 2007 were separated by only 100k or so, with 2007 gaining. The GAC allowed 2012 extent to keep falling during the time of year when NH ice loss has historically begun slowing and bottoming out.

The point is, while 2016 *is* most definitely a special year, with several factors in place that haven't been before, that doesn't in any way mean a record minimum is imminent. In fact, by my own calculations, 2016 is statistically more likely to end up above 4 million than it is to finish below 3 million. So, again: 3.5-3.75. That's my guess for now...

6roucho

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #65 on: May 11, 2016, 01:51:38 PM »
I for one did not feel insulted :) nor by 6roucho comments obviously (hope you guys don't take my way of expressing as insulting, it is not!). I respect your prediction but see very difficult to happen.
You're always a civil and persuasive arguer, seaicesailor. I had a chuckle as well.

It's true: there are outliers, and there are OUTLIERS.

jdallen

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #66 on: May 11, 2016, 07:17:34 PM »
<snippage>
The point is, while 2016 *is* most definitely a special year, with several factors in place that haven't been before, that doesn't in any way mean a record minimum is imminent. In fact, by my own calculations, 2016 is statistically more likely to end up above 4 million than it is to finish below 3 million. So, again: 3.5-3.75. That's my guess for now...
Concur Jim, and your guestimate actually does follow the statistical record. If conditions follow the average of the last 10 years or so, we will end up in a near statistical tie with 2007/2011/2015.  I am stepping out on a limb a little with mine (2.75-3.0), but I'm betting on the weather to be more 2012-like than 2015-like.
This space for Rent.

DungeonMaster

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #67 on: May 11, 2016, 07:26:51 PM »
Gentlemen and Ladies,


you can now change your mind and edit your vote.
This forum helps me to feel less uncomfortable about "doing something" about the melting Arctic and the warming world.

Juan C. García

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #68 on: May 11, 2016, 08:05:58 PM »
Gentlemen and Ladies,


you can now change your mind and edit your vote.

Great and thanks, DungeonMaster!

I moved my vote from 3.0-3.25 to the 3.25-3.5 million km2.
Just want to be a little more conservative!
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

werther

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #69 on: May 11, 2016, 08:46:49 PM »
"The point is, while 2016 *is* most definitely a special year, with several factors in place that haven't been before, that doesn't in any way mean a record minimum is imminent.

That line by Jim Pettit comes close to my own opinion. While the initial set-up for this season is exciting, extrapolating from here to the minimum has a high Las Vegas-aspect. There's a big difference between the large scale trend (which is awful) and the small time-frame to combine several parameters into the Dragon King-event. Just 16 weeks, guys.

Anything can happen, but don't get bored when drama doesn't fulfill our expectations. Keep an eye on the science and the beauty.

Oyvind Johnsen

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #70 on: May 11, 2016, 08:49:59 PM »
The last few Seasons have showed clearly that melting is very weather dependent, through the season. And the weather is, more than a week or so into the future, not predictable. So, there is still a very wide range of possible outcomes for the minimum in September, and also a quite wide range of likely outcomes.
To pick a bin, then, must include some pure guesswork.
In my guessing, I agree with the arguments of Jim Pettit. I went for the slightly more conservative 3.75 - 4.0.

6roucho

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #71 on: May 12, 2016, 06:22:31 AM »
...L.O.L.

@6roucho So you affirm that people feel exposed by picking outliers . . . when more than half of the people are voting at or below 2012, which is the mother-of-all-outliers?

Seaicesailor, I replied to this glibly before but it deserves a more considered response!

I suggest we're dealing with two kinds of outlier: outliers in the set of possible outcomes, based on a reasonable analysis of trends, and outliers in the set of predictions of outcomes, based on opinions about discontinuities. An outlier in the first set is 2012. An outlier in the second set is an ice-free Arctic.

The transition to an ice-free Arctic (and of course, the 'transition' to < 1m sq km is only a step on that path) is a new event to us, and we're not good at predicting the timing of possible discontinuities in new events. Indeed we're not good at predicting the timing of discontinuities we've seen before!

But, we're somewhat better at identifying the kinds of systems that exhibit such discontinuities. One important property is interconnectedness. Interconnected systems can often be stable, until some  trigger event causes them to all move at once, and then they can collapse into chaos.

To my untrained eye, as a theoretician with no knowledge of sea ice physics beyond what I read on here, the Arctic sea ice looks like such an interconnected system.

Thus, I expect to see a discontinuity, but can't predict when. However I can see multiple attractors moving at once. Temperature has been rising blindingly fast in climate terms, and now we have concerns (that might be unfounded) about the structural integrity of the ice pack itself.

The mother of all black swan events would be a substantial part of it simply flowing out the Fram. I see no reason in physics why this, or else some other rapid change, can't happen any time. It might only require a combination of current conditions and weather.

So, I shilly-shallied round by predicting a new record low. What I should've done is either predict an ice-free state, to demonstrate my opinion, as Peter Wadhams has effectively done, or made a prediction based on a reasonable analysis of trends, as you did.

Of course there's no 'reason' why a rapid decline should happen this year, or any year soon, or at all. At least none we can compute. We could still be watching the Arctic approaching an ice-free state, from our retirement villages on the beach in what used to be sunlit uplands, in 2046.

abbottisgone

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #72 on: May 12, 2016, 07:13:51 AM »
...L.O.L.

@6roucho So you affirm that people feel exposed by picking outliers . . . when more than half of the people are voting at or below 2012, which is the mother-of-all-outliers?

Seaicesailor, I replied to this glibly before but it deserves a more considered response!

I suggest we're dealing with two kinds of outlier: outliers in the set of possible outcomes, based on a reasonable analysis of trends, and outliers in the set of predictions of outcomes, based on opinions about discontinuities. An outlier in the first set is 2012. An outlier in the second set is an ice-free Arctic.

The transition to an ice-free Arctic (and of course, the 'transition' to < 1m sq km is only a step on that path) is a new event to us, and we're not good at predicting the timing of possible discontinuities in new events. Indeed we're not good at predicting the timing of discontinuities we've seen before!

But, we're somewhat better at identifying the kinds of systems that exhibit such discontinuities. One important property is interconnectedness. Interconnected systems can often be stable, until some  trigger event causes them to all move at once, and then they can collapse into chaos.

To my untrained eye, as a theoretician with no knowledge of sea ice physics beyond what I read on here, the Arctic sea ice looks like such an interconnected system.

Thus, I expect to see a discontinuity, but can't predict when. However I can see multiple attractors moving at once. Temperature has been rising blindingly fast in climate terms, and now we have concerns (that might be unfounded) about the structural integrity of the ice pack itself.

The mother of all black swan events would be a substantial part of it simply flowing out the Fram. I see no reason in physics why this, or else some other rapid change, can't happen any time. It might only require a combination of current conditions and weather.

So, I shilly-shallied round by predicting a new record low. What I should've done is either predict an ice-free state, to demonstrate my opinion, as Peter Wadhams has effectively done, or made a prediction based on a reasonable analysis of trends, as you did.

Of course there's no 'reason' why a rapid decline should happen this year, or any year soon, or at all. At least none we can compute. We could still be watching the Arctic approaching an ice-free state, from our retirement villages on the beach in what used to be sunlit uplands, in 2046.
Cool.

(lol)

I would like to seek out the answers as to what prevents ice being exported through the fram straight, as a general rule, personally... then we/I can look at this issue of multi-year sea ice disappearing affecting the whole packs 'structural integrity'.

I might google this 'interconnectedness' term. Sounds pretty cool....
..
But I left school and grew my hair
They didn't understand
They wanted me to be respected as
A doctor or a lawyer man
But I had other plans..........

6roucho

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #73 on: May 12, 2016, 07:50:31 AM »
I might google this 'interconnectedness' term. Sounds pretty cool....
You will have to filter out a lot of junk: the term has been picked up by the new age community. Here's an introduction from a non-climate field, but with concepts applicable to climate: http://www.eifr.eu/files/Slides_Steve_OHANA_28032011.pdf

Juan C. García

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #74 on: May 12, 2016, 08:03:19 AM »
...
2012 had two very rapid melt periods:

1) The first was a one-week early June loss of a million km2--something never before seen in the satellite record. But after that, 2012's trajectory shallowed out a bit, and the lead it had built up virtually vanished over the ensuing weeks. ...

Interesting that we are right now 1.05 million km2 below 2012, so if 2016 matches the drop of 2012 to early june, we can stay one week without decreasing the extent and we will match 2012 at the end.  :o
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

abbottisgone

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #75 on: May 12, 2016, 08:10:47 AM »
I might google this 'interconnectedness' term. Sounds pretty cool....
You will have to filter out a lot of junk: the term has been picked up by the new age community. Here's an introduction from a non-climate field, but with concepts applicable to climate: http://www.eifr.eu/files/Slides_Steve_OHANA_28032011.pdf
Cheers, because it is one of those words!

 8)
..
But I left school and grew my hair
They didn't understand
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A doctor or a lawyer man
But I had other plans..........

6roucho

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #76 on: May 12, 2016, 08:43:45 AM »
I might google this 'interconnectedness' term. Sounds pretty cool....
You will have to filter out a lot of junk: the term has been picked up by the new age community. Here's an introduction from a non-climate field, but with concepts applicable to climate: http://www.eifr.eu/files/Slides_Steve_OHANA_28032011.pdf
Cheers, because it is one of those words!

 8)
The new age movement has adopted chaos theory, quantum mechanics and Jungian psychology as their pet scientific fields. http://sebpearce.com/bullshit/

abbottisgone

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #77 on: May 12, 2016, 09:01:17 AM »
The votes seem to indicate people expect 3.00 or thereabouts.

If it gets anywhere near that I would expect the markets to react.
..
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They didn't understand
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DoomInTheUK

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #78 on: May 12, 2016, 12:08:59 PM »
The votes seem to indicate people expect 3.00 or thereabouts.

If it gets anywhere near that I would expect the markets to react.

I think you expect too much. We might get a little excited, but for everyone else, nope. The markets will steadfastly ignore it. Even if it was made out to be bigger news, the markets wouldn't know how to incorporate it. At the worst, they'll see it as presenting 'opportunities' and react positively.

be cause

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #79 on: May 12, 2016, 01:10:43 PM »
i had a dream last night in which the seas at the north pole were full of reporters reporting the absence of sea ice within 200 miles ! Only such a reality will wake up the media never mind the public and the politicians :) .
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

LRC1962

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #80 on: May 12, 2016, 01:12:03 PM »
Voted 2.0-2.25, but then I have been seeing doom for years that have fortunately not come to past yet.
My reasons:
Normally, temps give little indication as to actual ice conditions
this year has the anomaly in such new territory there must be some kind of impact.

Normally an El Nino year creates very cold north Pacific, but that Warm blob still is on the warm side, In the North Atlantic that cold blob is getting larger, messing up the Gulf Stream big time and the temps variances between that and the Caribbean and east coast US is so large that it will create and dominate its own weather systems for a long time. Between these two I can see a lot of warm very wet storms making their way into the Arctic. These blobs are together bigger then they ever have in the past.
In the past years what happens in the Arctic stays in the Arctic as far as direct weather/sun light influences is concerned has been for the most part held true. I believe this year will see the continuation of this past winter in that the major impacts will not be how much sun/cloud, but how many and what kind of systems get pumped into the Arctic.
Finally what has saved the ice the past two years is how strong the land fast ice has held up and how little export through the Fram has occurred. Starting in January the opposite has been happening and I do not see that coming to an end any time very soon.
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jdallen

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #81 on: May 12, 2016, 06:22:34 PM »
Voted 2.0-2.25, but then I have been seeing doom for years that have fortunately not come to past yet.
My reasons:
Normally, temps give little indication as to actual ice conditions... <snippage>
Definitely - air temperature provides little of the heat required to force melt. 

However, to borrow a military maxim, quantity has it's own quality.  The additional heat is like losing a counterweight on a tire.  Early on in accelerating, it isn't particularly noticeable. However, increasing speed cause it to introduce forces that can run your vehicle off the road.

This year the heat has absolutely thrown off the balance.  All that remains to be determined is just how much acceleration the weather applies.
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seaicesailor

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #82 on: May 12, 2016, 06:29:20 PM »
...L.O.L.

@6roucho So you affirm that people feel exposed by picking outliers . . . when more than half of the people are voting at or below 2012, which is the mother-of-all-outliers?

I suggest we're dealing with two kinds of outlier: outliers in the set of possible outcomes, based on a reasonable analysis of trends, and outliers in the set of predictions of outcomes, based on opinions about discontinuities. An outlier in the first set is 2012. An outlier in the second set is an ice-free Arctic.

I agree with you, 2012 is not a freak out of nothing. It is a first blow of what will become usual soon. It is not an anomaly or an outlier in that sense. I was a bit extreme to highlight that many people are voting below a mark that is already very exceptional. :- |

Quote

The mother of all black swan events would be a substantial part of it simply flowing out the Fram. I see no reason in physics why this, or else some other rapid change, can't happen any time. It might only require a combination of current conditions and weather.


Apart from this extraordinary beginning of melting season, Fram Strait export (and Barentz export too) slows down from May to Sep. I bring two figures from this paper, page 4230:

http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/9/4205/2015/tcd-9-4205-2015-print.pdf

The second figure shows that between March and September there is export of 200 k km2 to 500 k Km2 out of the +1 M km2 for the whole year. 2007 was the worst during May-September IIRC from what I read, but maybe I am wrong.

I see a lot of tough ice in CAB-ESS, but a continuation of current conditions and a bad year of export (500 k Km2 or worse) could put Sep extent below 2012. Also because Fram export may have been caused by sustained Arctic dipole conditions, which is bad in general.
Or what could come on 2017 onward if export continues high throughout the year.

However I may be biased to conservative, because I have been observing Arctic ice after 2012 shock, and have seen more good news for ice than usually announced in this Forum.

abbottisgone

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #83 on: May 13, 2016, 03:27:55 AM »
The votes seem to indicate people expect 3.00 or thereabouts.

If it gets anywhere near that I would expect the markets to react.

I think you expect too much. We might get a little excited, but for everyone else, nope. The markets will steadfastly ignore it. Even if it was made out to be bigger news, the markets wouldn't know how to incorporate it. At the worst, they'll see it as presenting 'opportunities' and react positively.
Markets are democratic: ideas prevail and if opportunities present to embrace change then it stands to profitable reason, for the entrepreneurial set, that they will.

The only reason they haven't thus far( ..yet Tesla and formula-e do actually exist!) is because it's costly to change plant and embrace new strategical horizons as this encumbers many many years of uncertainty and investment.

It's all tipping points!

Divestment is investment...phase change and inter-connectedness  ;D

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Juan C. García

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #84 on: May 18, 2016, 06:01:54 PM »
This is the forecast, if we take IJIS yesterday value and the drop is the average of 2007, 2011 and 2015. I choose these years because they are the worst, taking out 2012. So, in this forecast I don't expect a GAC, but I expect that 2016 will perform like the second to fourth worst years.

Thanks everybody for their participation. The poll ends in 14 hours, so it is time to decide the vote (for those that haven't vote) or change it (for those who voted).

Thanks for your participation!
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

epiphyte

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #85 on: May 18, 2016, 06:38:12 PM »
I ended up going for 2.5-2.25, on the hunch that even on this trajectory, some of the peripheral + CAA MYI will hold out. If I thought that enough moisture might show up and the temps get low enough to boost the snow cover over the next couple of weeks, I'd guess higher - somewhere between 2011 & 2012.

bbr2314

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #86 on: May 18, 2016, 07:40:38 PM »
I think the logic for 'take a blend of X years and assume no GAC' is very flawed.

What if a GAC is actually normal after the sea ice declines below X point serving as another feedback for additional loss?

That could mean that 2016 will experience a GAC (or multiple) *worse* than 2012 at an earlier date.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #87 on: May 18, 2016, 08:04:53 PM »
As of today, Jim Pettit's graphs projecting all years subsequent-to-today surface melt amounts (area and extent) on the current 2016 value have only 2012 losses setting new records, and for volume, only two years' melts would set a new record.  Because of the head start 2016 has on others, I lean toward believing we may have a 2012-like future melt experience.  Therefore I expect a record low September SIE area, but just barely, and voted for 2.75-3.0.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

TerryM

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #88 on: May 18, 2016, 08:16:48 PM »
bbr


I know that the swells felt far into the ice pack were new to the crew of Polarstern in 2012. I believe that arctic rainfall was very unusual pre 2007, and if cyclonic weather is indeed a feature of low ice conditions, we could be in for a very precipitous drop in the very near future.


'Twould be nice if just once something new appeared that would favor ice retention.


Terry

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #89 on: May 18, 2016, 08:17:42 PM »
I think the logic for 'take a blend of X years and assume no GAC' is very flawed.

What if a GAC is actually normal after the sea ice declines below X point serving as another feedback for additional loss?

That could mean that 2016 will experience a GAC (or multiple) *worse* than 2012 at an earlier date.

I agree. I just decided to be conservative, but I am concerned that we can have a GAC and in fact, I am concerned that GAC's could be a new normal in the near future.
Hope not!
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

anthropocene

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #90 on: May 18, 2016, 08:26:34 PM »
Between 3.25 and 3.5.  2012 won't be beaten unless there is an exceptional increase in heat in the high arctic or there is a GAC. Quite possible that 2012 will be beaten but the greatest likelihood is that it won't be.

slow wing

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #91 on: May 18, 2016, 10:45:12 PM »
Between 2.0 and 2.25 million km2.

This year's melt is weeks ahead of previous years.

The Beaufort Sea in particular is all cut up & with a lot of ice already gone near the coast.

On the Atlantic side, the ice North of Svalbard keeps getting chewed up and it was like that through much of the winter. So there seems to be more than average heat flux coming in through that ocean current.

The Russian side is worse than usual. Their big rivers are discharging their melt water earlier than usual. The tundra is heating up and there is evidence of soot from their massive wildfires landing on the Arctic sea ice. That will help warm up the ice under the summer sun.

Snow cover is worse than usual and the land around the Arctic Basin will be heating up more than usual. We're in the second year of a big El Nino event and global monthly temperatures are easily breaking their previous records. Some of that should feed down into the Arctic.

So I'm guessing a new record low and all that will remain at the end of the melt season will be some of the multi-year ice off the Canadian Arctic Coast.


oren

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #92 on: May 18, 2016, 11:43:17 PM »
Moved my vote one notch down to 3.00-3.25, seeing that the extent chart is unrelenting. 50-50 chance of passing 2012.

Pmt111500

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #93 on: May 19, 2016, 03:25:25 AM »
Still assuming the marine response to El Nino in the Arctic is much delayed so keeping my vote fairly high.

Juan C. García

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #94 on: May 19, 2016, 06:50:39 AM »
Neven & Wipneus: I'm waiting for your comment & vote!!!  ;D
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

abbottisgone

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #95 on: May 19, 2016, 07:45:10 AM »
Moved my vote one notch down to 3.00-3.25, seeing that the extent chart is unrelenting. 50-50 chance of passing 2012.
Was that before or after you realised the May 18th figure only went down 40k?

 ???
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abbottisgone

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #96 on: May 19, 2016, 07:46:07 AM »
Neven & Wipneus: I'm waiting for your comment & vote!!!  ;D
..me too!  ;D
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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #97 on: May 19, 2016, 08:29:18 AM »
Neven & Wipneus: I'm waiting for your comment & vote!!!  ;D

Second place, about 3.5-3.75.
There is too much remaining ice, not in melt and supposedly quite thick. I may change my mind if the microwave sensors are starting to see substantial melting real soon now.

abbottisgone

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #98 on: May 19, 2016, 08:34:21 AM »
Still assuming the marine response to El Nino in the Arctic is much delayed so keeping my vote fairly high.
Interesting!
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LRC1962

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #99 on: May 19, 2016, 09:19:20 AM »
bbr


I know that the swells felt far into the ice pack were new to the crew of Polarstern in 2012. I believe that arctic rainfall was very unusual pre 2007, and if cyclonic weather is indeed a feature of low ice conditions, we could be in for a very precipitous drop in the very near future.


'Twould be nice if just once something new appeared that would favor ice retention.


Terry
I suspect 2013,2014 is going to be the best examples you will get under present circumstances.
"All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed; Second,  it is violently opposed; and Third, it is accepted as self-evident."
       - Arthur Schopenhauer