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What will the ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September daily minimum be?

Above 5.0  million km2
0 (0%)
Between 4.75 and 5.0 million km2
0 (0%)
Between 4.5 and 4.75 million km2
0 (0%)
Between 4.25 and 4.5 million km2
1 (0.7%)
Between 4.0 and 4.25 million km2
5 (3.6%)
Between 3.75 and 4.0 million km2
5 (3.6%)
Between 3.5 and 3.75 million km2
9 (6.5%)
Between 3.25 and 3.5 million km2
10 (7.2%)
Between 3.0 and 3.25 million km2
18 (13%)
Between 2.75 and 3.0 million km2
25 (18.1%)
Between 2.5 and 2.75 million km2
12 (8.7%)
Between 2.25 and 2.5 million km2
11 (8%)
Between 2.0 and 2.25 million km2
17 (12.3%)
Between 1.75 and 2.0 million km2
8 (5.8%)
Between 1.5 and 1.75 million km2
6 (4.3%)
Between 1.25 and 1.5 million km2
4 (2.9%)
Between 1.0 and 1.25 million km2
4 (2.9%)
Between 0.75 and 1.0 million km2
1 (0.7%)
Between 0.5 and 0.75 million km2
1 (0.7%)
Between 0.25 and 0.5 million km2
0 (0%)
Between 0.0 and 0.25 million km2
1 (0.7%)

Total Members Voted: 134

Voting closed: May 19, 2016, 08:05:35 AM

Author Topic: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll  (Read 42111 times)

DavidR

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #100 on: May 19, 2016, 10:42:12 AM »
Final count is in and our collective estimate is approx 2.67 M km^2, 500 K km^2 less than 2012.

More than 70% thought the record would be broken, compared to  20% in the first poll last year.
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

Juan C. García

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #101 on: May 19, 2016, 06:29:47 PM »
Interesting the comparition that DavidR does between this 2016 poll and the 2015 poll.
I make several groups with this poll:

                                    Votes          %
      
Above 2007                         1      0.7%
Even with 2007                    5      3.6%
Between 2007 and 2012      24    17.4%
Even with 2012                   18    13.0%
From 2.0 to 3.0 mkm2         65    47.1%
From 1.0 to 2.0 mkm2         22    15.9%
From 0.0 to 1.0 mkm2          3      2.2%
      
Total                                138   100.0%


I was expecting less votes. Participation was great, so thank you all!
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

anotheramethyst

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #102 on: May 19, 2016, 07:37:57 PM »
Thank you, Juan, for making the poll.  I really appreciate it :)

theoldinsane

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #103 on: May 20, 2016, 12:44:59 AM »
I thought I would end up in the alarmist camp but I ended in the mainstrem camp (2.75-3.0).

OTOH, recently I talked to a friend who believed the Arctic ocean was covered with about 1000 m thick ice. And he is a very clever guy in many other fields, but I think this is the alarming issue. Outside this forum, how many know that the thickness of most of the ice in the Arctic Ice is about 2 m right now (or less)?   

Neven

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #104 on: May 20, 2016, 11:13:08 AM »
Neven & Wipneus: I'm waiting for your comment & vote!!!  ;D

Thanks for starting this poll, Juan (and thanks for voting everyone!). If you could do the same thing in the next 3 months, that'd be great. Make sure you do the exact same thing, so that it's easy to compare changes over time. I'll be sure to advertise it on the ASIB.

I've refrained from voting just yet, because I want to see how Melt Pond May plays out.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

abbottisgone

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #105 on: May 21, 2016, 04:38:48 PM »
Neven & Wipneus: I'm waiting for your comment & vote!!!  ;D

Thanks for starting this poll, Juan (and thanks for voting everyone!). If you could do the same thing in the next 3 months, that'd be great. Make sure you do the exact same thing, so that it's easy to compare changes over time. I'll be sure to advertise it on the ASIB.

I've refrained from voting just yet, because I want to see how Melt Pond May plays out.
I think you just made me panic  ??? .....  :o :o :o
..
But I left school and grew my hair
They didn't understand
They wanted me to be respected as
A doctor or a lawyer man
But I had other plans..........

Neven

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #106 on: May 21, 2016, 05:10:41 PM »
I think you just made me panic  ??? .....  :o :o :o

Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

abbottisgone

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #107 on: May 21, 2016, 05:25:41 PM »
I think you just made me panic  ??? .....  :o :o :o


I voted 4 to 4.25 and commented that I chose to retain that oh so precious mustard seed... I might just refrain from looking for a few days actually.

Government departments around the world are having serious discussions around the water cooler these days I hear ... People are even bothering to write to their member of parliament!

... Members of parliament even bother to stop and listen to your concerns if you see them in the street!

... I am officially choosing to enjoy every last second!
..
But I left school and grew my hair
They didn't understand
They wanted me to be respected as
A doctor or a lawyer man
But I had other plans..........

Juan C. García

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #108 on: May 22, 2016, 04:21:34 AM »
Thanks for starting this poll, Juan (and thanks for voting everyone!). If you could do the same thing in the next 3 months, that'd be great. Make sure you do the exact same thing, so that it's easy to compare changes over time. I'll be sure to advertise it on the ASIB.

Thanks for your comment Neven! I am looking forward to start the poll the next 3 months. I think I will start the next one around June 5th, that is in the middle of the beginning of the month and June 9th. (I opened this poll on May 9th).

[Edit: I am going to be a little off-topic now, but it is the end of this poll]

I don't want to jump the gun here, it's up to Neven, but can we start the polls on the minimum soon?  I know we have limited sources of data this year unfortunately.

I am concern about the comment that the Forum has limited sources of data, so I not sure to congratulate everyone that the Forum is reaching 1 million monthly views on average this year!
I am planning to relate the subject of Arctic Sea Ice lost and the activity on this Forum with other subjects in Mexico, that are: The chaotic urban growth of Mexico City, the reaction of local pollution against what should be a reaction to AGW and a possible solution to Mexico City traffic.
So I was thinking that you will have an increase in at least page views comming from Mexico (hopefully some donations as well, but I cannot assure it). I hope that it is ok that I mentioned this Forum as much as possible.
Anyway, the subject will be discussed closed to Santa Fe, one of the richest neighbourhoods of Mexico City and a good example of the chaotic urban growth.
« Last Edit: May 22, 2016, 08:02:29 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

abbottisgone

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #109 on: May 22, 2016, 08:07:16 AM »
You opened this poll on may 9th?

.. How come I've aged 50 years in less than 2 weeks??  :-\ :-\ :-\ :-\ :-\
..
But I left school and grew my hair
They didn't understand
They wanted me to be respected as
A doctor or a lawyer man
But I had other plans..........

Neven

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #110 on: May 22, 2016, 01:40:02 PM »
I hope that it is ok that I mentioned this Forum as much as possible.

This goes without saying, Juan.  Thanks for spreading the word.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Juan C. García

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #111 on: May 22, 2016, 06:17:45 PM »
I hope that it is ok that I mentioned this Forum as much as possible.

This goes without saying, Juan.  Thanks for spreading the word.

Your welcome, Neven. I admire the work on this Forum, so it is easy, at least on this part, to spread the word!
I am more concerned about other subjects, some of them involve with corruption or scientists that are not telling the true. So, I will open some topics on Policy and Solutions, like the ones talking about chaotic growth of Mexico City or my signature on this Forum. Some coments will be hard to swallow, but it is worst to continue without solutions.
Have all reader a great day!
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

anotheramethyst

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #112 on: May 23, 2016, 05:06:36 AM »


I don't want to jump the gun here, it's up to Neven, but can we start the polls on the minimum soon?  I know we have limited sources of data this year unfortunately.

I am concern about the comment that the Forum has limited sources of data, so I not sure to congratulate everyone that the Forum is reaching 1 million monthly views on average this year!

Whoops, sorry for the confusion!!!! The forum is a wealth of data, that's not what I meant.  I was talking about the limited satellite data about the arctic because of the satellite failure.  I thought last year we did an IJIS extent and a CT area poll, so I wasn't sure what polls we can do this year.  I LOVE the forum, it's full of information :)

abbottisgone

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #113 on: May 23, 2016, 05:15:20 AM »
I hope that it is ok that I mentioned this Forum as much as possible.

This goes without saying, Juan.  Thanks for spreading the word.

Your welcome, Neven. I admire the work on this Forum, so it is easy, at least on this part, to spread the word!
I am more concerned about other subjects, some of them involve with corruption or scientists that are not telling the true. So, I will open some topics on Policy and Solutions, like the ones talking about chaotic growth of Mexico City or my signature on this Forum. Some coments will be hard to swallow, but it is worst to continue without solutions.
Have all reader a great day!
Are you from Mexico, mate?

"Chido Hombre!  ;) ;)"
..
But I left school and grew my hair
They didn't understand
They wanted me to be respected as
A doctor or a lawyer man
But I had other plans..........

Neven

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #114 on: May 23, 2016, 08:12:01 AM »
Whoops, sorry for the confusion!!!! The forum is a wealth of data, that's not what I meant.  I was talking about the limited satellite data about the arctic because of the satellite failure.  I thought last year we did an IJIS extent and a CT area poll, so I wasn't sure what polls we can do this year.  I LOVE the forum, it's full of information :)

Last year and the year before that we had polls for CT daily SIA and NSIDC monthly SIE. If data is not off by too much, there will probably be a NSIDC monthly SIE poll starting next month, as this is what is used for the SIPN SIO, etc.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

abbottisgone

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Re: ADS-JAXA 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: May poll
« Reply #115 on: May 24, 2016, 10:18:03 AM »
This isn't particularly scientific, but I took today's JAXA sea ice extent graph and simply cut/pasted the 2000's average trajectory on to the end of the 2016 line.  Essentially, I just cut off the plots after today's date and moved them down.  As it happens, the 2000's average and 2012 figure almost coincide for today's date.  This is convenient because it shows two different possible trajectories from today.

I drew a box across to the axis to indicate where the adjusted minima occur.  If the rest of 2016 follows the 2000's average trajectory, the minimum occurs at approximately 4.5 million km2.  If the rest of 2016 follows the 2012 trajectory, the minimum occurs at just over 2 million km2.

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/vishop-extent.html?N

FWIW, I maintain a graph that does all that work for you:


Just googled and had a look at your graphs...



...IS THIS THE SCARIEST ONE?
..
But I left school and grew my hair
They didn't understand
They wanted me to be respected as
A doctor or a lawyer man
But I had other plans..........