AGW in general > Science

Precipitation trends

(1/6) > >>

We expect increase in precip intensity due to anthro climate change. An Australia-wide study sees storms shrinking in both area and duration together with increases in peak rainfall rate.

doi:  10.1002/2016GL068509

A previous study by some of the same authors is at

DOI: 10.1038/NGEO2456

This will stress stormwater systems leading to more frequent flooding, an especial concern to coastal and floodplain infrastructure. Weather models are not (yet ?) good enuf to model these effects, and i doubt they will improve very quickly.

 I am in Perth and we talk about long term trends of decreasing rainfall patterns in the Southwest of Western Australia.

 This must be simply a peculiarity to our little bit of Australia, is that correct?

i think the paper argues that it rains in smaller areas for shorter times but with greater intensity. I dont think it says much about total rainfall.

Realclimate has a post on climate signals, and a reference to a very useful (open access) paper by Benestad on precipitation trends. He finds that the total area where precipitation occurs has shrunk

"A linear trend analysis indicates a change in the estimated rainfall area from 25% to 23% over the 1998–2016 period. The trend is statistically significant at the 1% level."

The total atmospheric water content remained approximately constant over 1998-2016 according to the ERA-Interim, whereas the global mean rate of evaporation increased from 1400 to 1500 giga-tons (table 1). The total 50 ◦ S–50 ◦ N precipitation increased slightly from 1122 giga-ton/day to1152 giga-ton day −1 according to the TRMM data and 1300–1308 giga-tons according to ERA-Interim "

The odd part is we see from the supplementaries that total precipitation has remained constant over land, but increased over ocean. Very intersesting paper. Read the whole thing.

doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aab375


If China creates more rain, is there not going to be a place that will get less rain ?


[0] Message Index

[#] Next page

Go to full version