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 Poll: How close will 2016 CT (!NSIDC)  Area get to the 2012 daily  figure of 2.234M sq Km.

We won't know when the poll closes.
0 (0%)
Record!
3 (9.1%)
0 - 25K
1 (3%)
25 K - 50 K
0 (0%)
50K - 75K
0 (0%)
75K - 100K
2 (6.1%)
100K - 125K
5 (15.2%)
125K - 150K
0 (0%)
150K - 175K
4 (12.1%)
175K to  200K
4 (12.1%)
200K to 225K
5 (15.2%)
225K to 250K
1 (3%)
250K to 275K
1 (3%)
275K to 300K
4 (12.1%)
300K to 325K
1 (3%)
325K to 350K
0 (0%)
350K to 375K
1 (3%)
I don't believe its that low already!
1 (3%)

Total Members Voted: 32

Voting closed: September 25, 2016, 07:53:28 AM

Author Topic: How close can NSIDC area get to 2012.  (Read 2473 times)

DavidR

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How close can NSIDC area get to 2012.
« on: September 04, 2016, 07:53:28 AM »
Area is now just 370K above the 2012 minimum but it is unlikely to get there. In the next three weeks we should know.  As we can now see weather predictions  for the immediate future it would interesting to see how accurate our estimates of weather effects can be.

If the minimum comes before Sept 24 the we should all  finish the season off with a winning estimate.  ;D

As Crandles pointed out this is the DAILY CT calculation I  was thinking of.  And in the absence of the CT Area figures we will be using Wipneus's estimates which are accurate enough.

It is true the are minimum will  probably occur before the end of the poll, which  is why  everyone should be a winner!
« Last Edit: September 06, 2016, 03:46:16 PM by DavidR »
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

mmghosh

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Re: How close can NSIDC area get to 2012.
« Reply #1 on: September 04, 2016, 08:44:27 AM »
Thanks for setting up the poll.  One issue is that the NSIDC area is too difficult to predict for me.  I prefer IJIS, as I seem more able to get a handle on the ice numbers when seen in conjunction with the Uni Bremen or Uni Hamburg chart.  And then apply the necessary historical correction to get the NSIDC number.

But voted anyway!  Its pretty educational.
« Last Edit: September 04, 2016, 02:09:22 PM by mmghosh »

crandles

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Re: How close can NSIDC area get to 2012.
« Reply #2 on: September 04, 2016, 12:36:29 PM »
NSIDC September area monthly number is 2.37 so presumably this is daily area?

If so, where are the daily numbers?

(Area minimums are generally before extent minimums so it looks like minimum should pass well before poll closes.)

Neven

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Re: How close can NSIDC area get to 2012.
« Reply #3 on: September 04, 2016, 11:04:29 PM »
Yes, make it clearer that it's about the CT area numbers, as calculated by Wipneus based on NSIDC sea ice concentration data. Maybe link to Wipneus' latest post on the 2016 sea ice area and extent thread.

Good timing, BTW. Wipneus will be off-line a couple of days, so people have time to vote.  ;)
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Iceismylife

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Re: How close can NSIDC area get to 2012.
« Reply #4 on: September 04, 2016, 11:37:52 PM »
My bet is another big Cyclone pushing it lower.

DavidR

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Re: How close can NSIDC area get to 2012.
« Reply #5 on: September 20, 2016, 11:53:19 AM »
I  guess we can call this poll now.

14 predictions were too low
12 predictions were too high
and 3 were just right.

Perhaps showing that our collective wisdom is greater than our individual wisdom.
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore