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Author Topic: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice - Reduction in Warmer Atlantic Water  (Read 39346 times)

timallard

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #50 on: May 20, 2016, 12:33:32 PM »
With respect.... as jdallen says, it is very clear that you have absolutely no concept of the scales involved here.

Perhaps you're aware of our Herculean efforts to tame the Mississippi River, which at peak flow, represents 2% of the flow through the straight. By the way, that project has cost ~7 billion, and the upkeep of the structures is a constant uphill battle.

How exactly do you propose we tame the unfathomable forces behind the transport of 15.8 billion gallons of water per minute? With dredge? Seriously? That's 15 with nine zeroes behind it. You are vastly, vastly underestimating the power of water, the ocean and the harshness of the Arctic here...

We could probably do it - If all of humanity were to get behind the idea, and every nation that could were to pour money and resources into it. Manpower, equipment and money.

And we don't even know if it would work, nor the possible undesirable consequences. There is no way that this will ever happen.

That money and effort would be far better spent on 1) transitioning from fossil fuels or

2) More space exploration; Colonizing mars, etc.

We are well past the point of state change - in fact, it appears the state change happened way back in 1987http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13106/abstract.  An ice free arctic is inevitable with CO2 at 400PPM and climbing, just a matter of when the new stable regime is reached. That doesn't mean we should give up the good fight, but this is not the solution.

/delurk

In spring the northward sea-ice drift is stated in the Coast Pilot as less than a 1/2-knot no winds and that's about the deeper flow rate, got that from a researcher using 1-Sverdrup for total flow to close off by first diverting a key portion then making the final closure at Fairway Rock.

The Dutch have the techniques for this perhaps the big muddy not a good analogy, those concepts need to be applied to deeper water the main issue.

The albedo loss is now putting 1/5-watt/m² as heat input to the planet and prevents sea-ice from getting thicker because too much latent heat is in the water in fall to remove it, the big meltdown in 2007 was from bottom melting the heat gained that year easily explaining the source.

The current and ice-movement by winds don't allow sea-ice to linger long in the straits and observing animations of annual sea-ice growth & melting the eastern basin opens up and expands from the straits and sea due north of it first, it initiates melt off in the Chukchi then Beaufort Seas.

So, that's the geographic location to change or alter how this is working today. We must encourage earlier formation and preserve the ice longer to slow down the larger melting of open water.

So what do you propose doing about it?
-tom

timallard

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #51 on: May 20, 2016, 12:41:46 PM »
So you are going to build a fish ladder for whales?  No?  Any other minor environmental or ecological catastrophes you have in mind?  Sigh.

Yes, the shipping canal has locks to only allow flow one way and will have fish-ladders and sea-mammal accommodation for them the estuary on the west and along the roadway-railroad route can handle whales.

This closure happened every ice-age, the animals don't care they'll live ok either side it's important to note that for most people the animals are a main priority but don't tell, eh?
-tom

timallard

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #52 on: May 20, 2016, 12:48:04 PM »
So you are going to build a fish ladder for whales?  No?  Any other minor environmental or ecological catastrophes you have in mind?  Sigh.
The shipping canal is the fish highway it'll have locks with a ladder, whales are like ships in the locks to raise or lower them, the canal has to be pretty wide no specs on it yet, so far the only confinement is at the locks.

Overall the restoration of the sea-ice will increase sea-mammal habitat.
-tom

AmbiValent

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #53 on: May 20, 2016, 12:57:35 PM »
*sigh*

Out of a hundred ideas that seem ingenious at first glance, there's one that actually works. That means still millions of successful ideas every year, so if you honestly believe in it, continue working on it. However, if we don't believe it and even give reasons why it won't work, don't think this is out of ill will or because we don't want a solution. We'd love if there would be one that works.

You can't argue yourself to victory, you have to prove your ideas work. I think the crowd around here wouldn't demand a 100% proof, but there would be people willing to join if they see even a possibility that it might work. If even these people don't agree with you, that means the ball is in your court, and getting angry at us won't help you anywhere.
Bright ice, how can you crack and fail? How can the ice that seemed so mighty suddenly seem so frail?

TerryM

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #54 on: May 20, 2016, 03:03:11 PM »
Bering Straits

 I Damn Thee! I Damn Thee! I Damn Thee!  >:(
& it you don't cool down I may be forced to Shun Thee.


I'd wondered about just filling the deepest channels, where I imagine the warmest Pacific waters enter. I fear however that this would simply give rise to Halo Syphoning and no good would come of it. Think about the high sills in many fiords that do nothing to block warm Atlantic water.


IIRC there is a warm coastal current that follows the Alaskan coast which enhances melt in the Beaufort Sea, but I can't imagine any way to divert this without plugging up the whole thing.


A few years back we had an advocate for stringing a net across Fram to capture the advecting ice. Another interesting discussion, but equally unlikely to ever be attempted.


Terry

DoomInTheUK

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #55 on: May 20, 2016, 03:13:31 PM »
All of these damned projects (sorry, couldn't resist) are just too big.

There is no way you'll be able to get many parties to work together to fund and collaborate on a project like this. It makes for a fun mental exercise, but politics will kill it off even before the ink is dry on the plans.

magnamentis

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #56 on: May 20, 2016, 03:41:58 PM »
this what you say and adding to what i posted earlier on the matter (same horn) i think that one of the main arguments against even considering it, even if all the tech and funding problems could be resolved beforehand, is that the benefit is questionable and the possible side effects are vastly unknown. i even go that far to say that huge non-welcome side effects are guaranteed.

in short, the (close to certain) risk to (questionable) benefit ratio is one of the worst i can imagine and then
the costs to almost certainly to get from a drizzle into a thunderstorm? clear case IMO, never ever.
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timallard

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #57 on: May 20, 2016, 05:58:59 PM »
this what you say and adding to what i posted earlier on the matter (same horn) i think that one of the main arguments against even considering it, even if all the tech and funding problems could be resolved beforehand, is that the benefit is questionable and the possible side effects are vastly unknown. i even go that far to say that huge non-welcome side effects are guaranteed.

in short, the (close to certain) risk to (questionable) benefit ratio is one of the worst i can imagine and then
the costs to almost certainly to get from a drizzle into a thunderstorm? clear case IMO, never ever.

This hasn't been modeled so I disagree on making conclusions based on opinions, I'll hire the Dutch using private investors and just make a deal with locals to get rich on the work and we'll pull it off, what will the oil companies and governments do about it that's how they operate?

There is no other physical way to restore sea-ice in the Eastern Arctic without damming it.

Do the heat-transfer modeling, do it or don't speculate it's a heat-transfer problem.

Along with sea-ice being blown south into the Pacific that will always melt away, at least my solution is comprehensive, it does intend to restore sea-mammal habitat & provide pathways for fish & mammals using the shipping canal and other features no one has figured out yet.

The western estuary is huge and will confine any ice in it there are no outlets, did anyone notice that?

It's intentional, that's the freshwater supply for the locks and the water used will be from the bottom so it will freshen over time and be a huge bird sanctuary, did anyone figure that out?

Nope ...  it is a comprehensive plan not a quick toss and the problem is global, we all fail right now.

We are going for 3-5C and 2m of sea-level by 2100 at 3-ppm/year, it's not possible to preserve the sea-ice by incrementally reducing CO2 anymore there's too much in the sky and the heating lasts about 150,000-years if you actually study similar excursions in the past.

So Paris didn't regulate shipping or aircraft thus it's a joke, we fly by 2C on that alone plus none of the voluntary goals put us below 3-5C because they depend on unknown sequestration techniques keeping in mind coal companies have since the early 60's been using CO2 sequester, did anyone notice?

Nope, it's not significant as a method what they are doing, they didn't stop either, most of it was growing algae for biodiesel to have a revenue stream in elevated CO2 environments, or, the joy of pumping it into strata and causing earthquakes or into the deep ocean to come back up later and how much did all that cost?

Humanity will have to make this closure if it every wants to change what's happening, not what's going to happen what is right now happening to sea-ice in the eastern basin near the massive clathrate fields off Siberia's coast.
-tom

magnamentis

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #58 on: May 20, 2016, 06:22:15 PM »
i think you made your point and that is mine and if you support to spend millions for modelling things that common sense knows before that it won't work then you fit well into the system how it is today and how taxpayers moneys are wasted.

further who is telling that see ice has to be restored at all, who know that, see ice does not contribute to SLR hence perhaps there will be millions who benefit from arable land and less energy costs and consumption due to less cold while others certainly will suffer. so we are talking changes and changes are usually not welcome while it has not been modeled as well whether the benefits of an ice free arctic exceed the downsides.

not saying but the persistence here i would normally call opinionated. debating things is very much ok, even very good and having ideas, born by thinking out of the box as well, but not considering one single counter argument and just repeating earlier statements to counter new arguments is not leading anywhere IMO
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timallard

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #59 on: May 20, 2016, 07:18:38 PM »
A better approach would be to make the dam out of ice - a la Game of Thrones - by pumping sea water on top of the ice floes in winter time, until they are grounded on the seafloor.  This has the advantage of increasing albedo during the construction phase, and being completely reversible if it turns out to be a bad idea.

And spray the water in the air near the end of winter to make artificial snow. This insulates the ice, and increases albedo further to protect the ice dam over the summer months.

I really like the freezing idea, just not for a dam against warm water, good for adding surface ice yet my reaction to that was we still need to stop the current below it to solve what happens north of the straits.

Anyway, it just came to mind how to use it to refreeze the seabeds that are out-gassing methane at accelerating rates.

It takes -2C seawater to refreeze it for the traditional ice-coverage season, or, cooling the water over them with a colder recirculating thermal-fluid, these don't freeze above -60C then using heat-exchangers on the bottom to chill the water or actually freeze the bottom.

Those can be mechanically driven by windmills for pumping it all with heat-exchangers that chill the fluid nearest them, after the ice is gone a barge could do this anchored out with support.

[Aside on windmills this research the basis; "John Dabiri | Opportunities and Challenges for Next-Generation Wind Energy"; 25:12; ... he has installations in AK, from that I have designs that handle icing & strong gusty winds, cheap, used pipe & sheet metal & small, 2kw, 1.2m diameter. Most consider windmills can't work in those conditions so want to break that ice, a pun, and show that it's possible to power with them and save diesel costs, battery-array systems come in containers now to 2-Mwh capacity for village scale mini-grids].

The problem is the sea-ice moves too much now so these would have to be on shore until the sea-ice is gone. As a system it needs to operate anytime it's cold enough during the year, perhaps later adding insulating mats over frozen areas to move them around, or leave them and re-chill them when needed.

Regardless ... it's another major "tipping point" needing to be slowed and this would refreeze these deposits to some degree it's the scale that's scary, starting with the largest ones should matter, some are 1-km in diameter which began a few centimeters wide in 3-5 years.

This feedback is a most difficult one to solve and another where we can't rely on any natural system to reverse, what are your thoughts?
-tom

timallard

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #60 on: May 20, 2016, 08:07:46 PM »
i think you made your point and that is mine and if you support to spend millions for modelling things that common sense knows before that it won't work then you fit well into the system how it is today and how taxpayers moneys are wasted.

further who is telling that see ice has to be restored at all, who know that, see ice does not contribute to SLR hence perhaps there will be millions who benefit from arable land and less energy costs and consumption due to less cold while others certainly will suffer. so we are talking changes and changes are usually not welcome while it has not been modeled as well whether the benefits of an ice free arctic exceed the downsides.

not saying but the persistence here i would normally call opinionated. debating things is very much ok, even very good and having ideas, born by thinking out of the box as well, but not considering one single counter argument and just repeating earlier statements to counter new arguments is not leading anywhere IMO
1) It won't cost millions for taxpayers to model for someone with a bathymetric-current-tide model to create the scenario because the oil companies are paying all the bills from their subsidies.

2) "... who is telling that see ice has to be restored at all"?

Consider as-is the early sea-ice loss is adding 0.21-watts/m² to global warming directly in heat, a rough 4-watts/m² has been added since pre-industrial that's a 5.25% jump in heat gained per year on this feedback which only will increase.

This means humans must reduce emissions even more to get where they thought they were getting by 5%, the economy has to do something, anything at all about it.

This gain operates separately from the influence of CO2 emissions, it will only increase thus do you propose to merely "let it go"?

When that warm water gets mixed to the bottom by winds & currents it's been thawing the seabed to 50m such that the clathrates have enlarged 3-5cm holes into giant 1-km areas bubbling up methane in 3-5 years, another separate, very strong reason to replace the sea-ice.

3) "... whether the benefits of an ice free arctic exceed the downsides."

The geophysical context is a methane clathrate out-gassing currently observed, separately the new direct-heating source is adding >5% of global warming yearly, this mainly over the past decade.

Those are clearly already happening so please give us the list of what any benefits from a bluewater-event to have an open Arctic Ocean in summer are versus a worsening of both of these ongoing processes.

Thanks for your critique I couldn't find your points in replies before this one?
-tom

Peter Ellis

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #61 on: May 20, 2016, 09:41:52 PM »
This feedback is a most difficult one to solve and another where we can't rely on any natural system to reverse, what are your thoughts?

I think you're a loony.  As a solution to world climate change, magic windmills to freeze the sea bed comes somewhere between genetically engineered ice-shitting narwhals and a giant cannon of Factor 2000 suncream.

timallard

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #62 on: May 20, 2016, 10:06:33 PM »
This feedback is a most difficult one to solve and another where we can't rely on any natural system to reverse, what are your thoughts?

I think you're a loony.  As a solution to world climate change, magic windmills to freeze the sea bed comes somewhere between genetically engineered ice-shitting narwhals and a giant cannon of Factor 2000 suncream.

That's ok to be curt and personal, you're right on the sunscreen did too much climbing or SAR on Mt. Rainier for too many years or whatever.

My magic windmills are used-pipe bent into curves a high-schooler can build them.

Being a shop person I only suggest what I can build, the rime ice can coat them, they still spin and make power, doesn't matter to them they don't spin faster-n-faster in big winds they stall and self-regulate, betcha' never thought of that, eh?

Then there's the heat-transfer to an Arctic Ocean that put up 0.21-watts/m² as the global total so that's equal to 1/4th of the heat added since 1979 by CO2 forcing, hardly trivial, hardly "loony" geophysically speaking of course.

Carry on, we be havin' sociopaths at the helm of a planet matey nothin's surprising anymore, the denialistas pay trolls all over social media promoting obfuscation, outright science-dblspk stating the exact opposite of fact, a lie to drive real scientists crazy and other tricks, eh?

Far from me to assume you recognize there's problem from losing the sea-ice and gaining so much heat that we need to reduce our emissions another 25% to compensate ... or, it's a one-way ride to Hell.
-tom

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #63 on: May 20, 2016, 10:19:25 PM »

Being involved in lobbying/regulatory work. I can safely say that this project has not got a cats chance in hell of progressing. Governments will only intervene if the payback is obvious and the catastrophe (loss of life, money) is imminent. Losing Arctic sea ice does not constitute either. It actually provides money making opportunities. Serious money is already anticipating and measuring their risks and modifying investments.

If you wanted this to happen (in the US) you need to get some wealthy campaign contributors, show them how much money they will make, and then get them to twist the arms of the people in power so they can make said money. Of course, they will be fighting the investors who see money in the loss of sea ice, who are doing exactly the same thing.



timallard

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #64 on: May 20, 2016, 11:24:31 PM »

Being involved in lobbying/regulatory work. I can safely say that this project has not got a cats chance in hell of progressing. Governments will only intervene if the payback is obvious and the catastrophe (loss of life, money) is imminent. Losing Arctic sea ice does not constitute either. It actually provides money making opportunities. Serious money is already anticipating and measuring their risks and modifying investments.

If you wanted this to happen (in the US) you need to get some wealthy campaign contributors, show them how much money they will make, and then get them to twist the arms of the people in power so they can make said money. Of course, they will be fighting the investors who see money in the loss of sea ice, who are doing exactly the same thing.

How about pirates, privately paid??  :D ... I have no respect for the regulators at this time they jerked everyone around on this when it would have made it almost easy compared to now that began with the "Oil Crisis" of the late 70's which gave the excuse to Congre$$ to allow the North Slope pipeline to be built as it had been blocked by sanity for a while, eh?

There are those that see the value in owning the gate on the shipping lanes ala Suez part of my pirate theory for $port, eh?

It's like the only road to the mines in the Panamints to Death Valley and where it narrowed into canyon walls he put up the toll booth until a flash-flood took it away in the 50's ...

When I passed through on a bicycle tour there were wild jackasses running around, he made more money than the speculators for sure, it's like movie, "The Sting" with this stuff, everything is a false-flag so the idea is to make the pot look like gold, eh?
-tom

timallard

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #65 on: May 21, 2016, 12:04:03 AM »
A new flash, using St. Lawrence Island and closing off the side to Russia forcing Pacific water into a battle with Norton Sound's input BEFORE the closure of the main strait should create a large vortex such that most of the volume exits east.

Just a flash, consider that in the models.

Politically I'm working a a design that Russia can implement w/o cooperation by the USA to own the shipping canals as a strategy to get the fkn USA into a serious role in this to put it on the front-burner as the hot-ticket item.

Already sent the letter to Putin, consider that fossilites, playing aces this is for real I care not your agendas my agenda is to restore the sea-ice in the Eastern Arctic Basin or Bust, Bernie & Jill will support me here in the USA.

It's on the table, it's now an international issue, deal with it, if you can fake geophysics you have my kudos, not hate & I'll respond to blow away your triviality.
-tom

Michael J

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #66 on: May 21, 2016, 01:45:30 AM »
A new flash, using St. Lawrence Island and closing off the side to Russia forcing Pacific water into a battle with Norton Sound's input BEFORE the closure of the main strait should create a large vortex such that most of the volume exits east.

Just a flash, consider that in the models.

Politically I'm working a a design that Russia can implement w/o cooperation by the USA to own the shipping canals as a strategy to get the fkn USA into a serious role in this to put it on the front-burner as the hot-ticket item.

Already sent the letter to Putin, consider that fossilites, playing aces this is for real I care not your agendas my agenda is to restore the sea-ice in the Eastern Arctic Basin or Bust, Bernie & Jill will support me here in the USA.

It's on the table, it's now an international issue, deal with it, if you can fake geophysics you have my kudos, not hate & I'll respond to blow away your triviality.
Whats Putin's position on Global Warming? I would have pegged him as a denier.

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #67 on: May 21, 2016, 02:58:45 AM »

Okay, Okay. Anyone in a position of power publicly takes a stance on global warming that suits their needs. They are also the people who's advisers are selling beach front estates because of the risk of devaluation over the next 50 years. People with money and power are not stupid. They are already divesting themselves of long term risky assets.

timallard

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #68 on: May 21, 2016, 06:19:27 AM »
Whats Putin's position on Global Warming? I would have pegged him as a denier.

He's scientific more than an arrogant power tripper high-roller style, anti-GMO & no Roundup person, he's astute on strategy winning the war of hearts-n-minds right now according to metrics, no clue tho'.

My take is he's more of a player than a puppet vs USA power trippers.
-tom

timallard

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #69 on: May 21, 2016, 06:53:47 AM »
*sigh*

Out of a hundred ideas that seem ingenious at first glance, there's one that actually works. That means still millions of successful ideas every year, so if you honestly believe in it, continue working on it. However, if we don't believe it and even give reasons why it won't work, don't think this is out of ill will or because we don't want a solution. We'd love if there would be one that works.

You can't argue yourself to victory, you have to prove your ideas work. I think the crowd around here wouldn't demand a 100% proof, but there would be people willing to join if they see even a possibility that it might work. If even these people don't agree with you, that means the ball is in your court, and getting angry at us won't help you anywhere.

I'll agree with this one, "You can't argue yourself to victory, you have to prove your ideas work.", and that's why my purpose here is to get the idea on the table and watch what the "experts" do with it having a 1/2-century into glaciology from Continental Drift days a member of AGU & Int'l Society of Glaciologists I've already noted bullshit all over.

It's currently a ship of fools, idiots running the show anyone with any sense would know at 400-ppm CO2 and gaining 3-ppm we are blowing it big time.

The concept of a "carbon-budget" is so flawed if you put in what WILL HAPPEN NOW at 400-ppm including 82ft of sea-level if CO2 turned around and began a decline this week, what a great relief that would be and it's not happening.

As long as CO2 goes up so will sea-level for about 300-years AFTER CO2 turns is how the planet works but maybe someone can convince it to act otherwise, we put up enough carbon to keep global temps toasty for 150,000-years by today's excursion let alone if it continues.

The ocean acidification rate is 10-times faster than the PETM, and "alarmist" is tossed about like oooooooooh, that's so wrong to be worried.

3-ppm/year is a mass-extinction excursion, prove otherwise, eh? Anyone want to step up to that plate and take a swing that it doesn't matter, eh?

Ship of fools at the helm of a planet with no clue on what to do they have only $$$ in their vision?

So watch the ice disappear, don't take my advice because I can't "prove" that 400-ppm is totally ridiculous on the face of it.

I'm a Nam Vet on fixed income last software contract Xbox Azure dude, go to hell, there's nothing to discuss really.

You can't talk glaciology here and needing to have CO2 below 245-ppm before any cooling can happen, they don't wanna' hear it, eh?

Put up some space umbrellas, great idea, the chemtrails obviously don't affect retaining the sea-ice, eh?

Build some more nukes, frack the UK until it has no clean groundwater ... what else can go wrong, oh, invade a country to destroy it like Iraq for the oil, is that progress now?

Like people say they can't get it together to do something needing to be done on the order of CFC's destroying the ozone hole and look at the discussion here of the only thermal solution that isn't idiotic and the reason is that it'll work.

Prove otherwise with all the money & Crays, it should be easy if I'm the idiot, right, I get called a loony, right ... ok fine.

 ... we see what isn't happening on retaining the sea-ice with "business as usual".

Who does have a real solution to restoring sea-ice in the Eastern Arctic Basin, let's hear it.
-tom

Tensor

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #70 on: May 21, 2016, 07:39:55 AM »
Wow.   :-X
Paid Insane Murdoch Drone

jdallen

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #71 on: May 21, 2016, 07:49:05 AM »
timallard - I think when it comes down to it, the Arctic pack is toast.  It will melt out, we may see an ice free arctic by the end of the century.  I'm not sure there's much we could do to stop it.  The momentum is already there in the climate.

I think though, if we jerk the reigns back hard enough, there is a chance we might salvage Greenland and the West Antarctic ice sheets.  Those are where the really big problems come in, and where we could see conditions like massive sea rise and anoxic oceans come into being. We see that, we're at end of the Permian conditions with extinction levels in the ocean of upwards of 90% and on land of upwards of 60.

Not. Good.

So, I'm less worried about immediate geoengineering for mitigation, and far more focused on just halting the increases in CO2.

A Bering dam might, I emphasize *might* save the Arctic pack for a few decades.  However that won't save  Greenland or the West Antarctic.  I think it would also consume enormous resources which would be better directed at things like CO2 capture and the development of alternative energy resources - as well as dealing with what will be happening to humanity via weather changes.
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6roucho

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #72 on: May 21, 2016, 07:55:53 AM »

Okay, Okay. Anyone in a position of power publicly takes a stance on global warming that suits their needs. They are also the people who's advisers are selling beach front estates because of the risk of devaluation over the next 50 years. People with money and power are not stupid. They are already divesting themselves of long term risky assets.

Absolutely. Putin positions himself as a sceptic on climate change, but that's just a move in a chess game we can only partially see. Putin surely understands the science precisely, as do many Republicans who position as sceptics to win the votes of contrarians.

timallard, I personally share your concerns. It is a ship of fools, because it's foolish to sell the future of the species for short-term financial or political gain.

But this solution seems quite risky, even if it can be done. Michael Bloomberg once said that you can do a six-month project in twelve months, and a twelve-month project in two years, but you can't do a two-year project, ever. What he means is the complexity of projects increases exponentially by size.

My personal take on geo-engineering is that it should be focused on what is most likely to work, which is scrubbing CO2 from the atmosphere. That must surely have the least risk of unintended consequences.

If you've accidentally stuck a sword in some poor devil's gut, it's usually better to remove the sword than start experimenting on the gut. He might still bleed to death, but that's what you get for playing with swords.

oren

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #73 on: May 21, 2016, 10:03:12 AM »

My personal take on geo-engineering is that it should be focused on what is most likely to work, which is scrubbing CO2 from the atmosphere. That must surely have the least risk of unintended consequences.

If you've accidentally stuck a sword in some poor devil's gut, it's usually better to remove the sword than start experimenting on the gut. He might still bleed to death, but that's what you get for playing with swords.

Well said!

Eli81

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #74 on: May 21, 2016, 10:25:32 AM »


So what do you propose doing about it?

Turning Arizona into a giant solar array would have a far higher chance of actually happening. So that.  ;D

nukefix

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #75 on: May 21, 2016, 01:55:39 PM »
Damming the Bering-strait might have larger climatic consequences than the removal of the Arctic Sea Ice for all we know. In geoengineering I'd rather tinker with the atmosphere than divert ocean currents with unknown consequences..

Peter Ellis

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #76 on: May 21, 2016, 02:06:20 PM »
My magic windmills are used-pipe bent into curves a high-schooler can build them.
Can a high schooler also break the second law of thermodynamics? You're proposing to use a heat exchanger to freeze the sea bed.  Where is the waste heat going to go? 

Shared Humanity

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #77 on: May 21, 2016, 05:03:47 PM »
We're discussing the cost and technical feasibility of building a dam across the Bering Strait and not even discussing whether it would have the desired effect. Ice flow from the CAB through the strait into the Bering Sea is sporadic at best, the volume of ice exported is quite small. With regards to warm water from the Pacific flowing into the Arctic Ocean, I have read here that it takes a couple of years for any significant amount of water to make its way from the warm blob south of Alaska. The cost is prohibitive, the impact is minimal IMHO and the deleterious knock off effects on ocean currents and habitat not well understood.

I believe that, given our inability to address the issue of CO2 emissions, geoengineering is inevitable. This one is a nonstarter. When confronted with the inevitability of geoengineering, we need to find solutions that mimic as closely as possible the natural processes.

This idea proposed below is very intriguing.


Wait a minute, forget the dam.  If you can build massive amounts of ice by pumping water over the ice in winter, why not just do that for the whole ice pack?  Or strategic areas like the peripheral seas?

We currently place small buoys all over the Arctic Ocean to measure ice thickness and rate of growth. These buoys have instrumentation that protrudes above the ice and into the ocean waters below. So how would this work?

It still gets very cold in the Arctic during the long Arctic night. The rate of new ice growth (as Crandles has emphasized over and over again) is limited to about 2 meters because of the increasing insulative effect of the thickening ice, limiting the amount of ice that can form underneath. If we had a vast array of buoys in the peripheral seas and areas in the CAB with simple plumbing, small electric pumps and powered by batteries, they could easily pump up very small amounts of water over the expanding ice sheets that would provide a thin film of water that would quickly freeze. The growth of newly formed ice in the bitter winter cold would no longer be hampered by the physics governing the formation of ice on the bottom of the ice sheet. I can see where this would cause a rapid freeze and significantly thicker ice through the winter. The cost of an individual buoy would be quite small and the ice sheet growth would closely mimic the natural process of ice growth in the Arctic winter.

The energy required to lift water 3 meters up is actually quite small. Given that we are talking about accelerating the winter growth of newly forming ice by millimeters a day, the volume of water to accomplish an additional meter of thickening is not as large as we might imagine.

Edit by author......I keep getting new insights into how this might work.....

In the late winter, just as insolation is set to ramp up, these buoys could be shifted into their snow making mode, placing a deep blanket of reflective snow on the now 3 meter thick ice flows. These could be operated sporadically throughout the early melt season whenever surface temperatures are conducive to freezing.
« Last Edit: May 21, 2016, 05:28:08 PM by Shared Humanity »

Shared Humanity

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #78 on: May 21, 2016, 05:22:13 PM »
Also, IMHO, this thread does not belong here and should be moved to Policies and Solutions.

6roucho

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #79 on: May 21, 2016, 05:26:44 PM »
Does it have to be ice? Presumably the general problem of an ice-free arctic is the net increase of heat energy transmitted to the world's oceans by a loss of albedo. Why not just insulate it? Of course a continent-sized space blanket won't solve any of the related environmental problems.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #80 on: May 21, 2016, 05:37:29 PM »
Does it have to be ice? Presumably the general problem of an ice-free arctic is the net increase of heat energy transmitted to the world's oceans by a loss of albedo. Why not just insulate it? Of course a continent-sized space blanket won't solve any of the related environmental problems.

Again, adopting a geoengineering approach that mimics the natural process will result in the fewest unanticipated knock on effects. Encouraging ice growth is far more preferable.

6roucho

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #81 on: May 21, 2016, 06:04:51 PM »
Does it have to be ice? Presumably the general problem of an ice-free arctic is the net increase of heat energy transmitted to the world's oceans by a loss of albedo. Why not just insulate it? Of course a continent-sized space blanket won't solve any of the related environmental problems.

Again, adopting a geoengineering approach that mimics the natural process will result in the fewest unanticipated knock on effects. Encouraging ice growth is far more preferable.
Sure, I was just joining in the frivolity. One minute we're covering the arctic in BacoFoil, the next we're puzzling over an intransigent cooling spiral.

timallard

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #82 on: May 21, 2016, 06:42:37 PM »
Does it have to be ice? Presumably the general problem of an ice-free arctic is the net increase of heat energy transmitted to the world's oceans by a loss of albedo. Why not just insulate it? Of course a continent-sized space blanket won't solve any of the related environmental problems.

Again, adopting a geoengineering approach that mimics the natural process will result in the fewest unanticipated knock on effects. Encouraging ice growth is far more preferable.
Firstly that it's gaining significant to global heating the current metric is 0.21-watts/m² representing in the years from 2001-2011 25% of the heat gained in equivalent terms from 1979 by the increase in CO2 for context ["Climate and Evolution:Charles Kennel:The Impacts of Arctic Sea Ice Retreat on Contemporary Climate."; about 16min in 21:57 can't read the citation he uses; ].

I'm specifically pointing to all recent reports that current conditions where that water got so much heat melts the ice from below this shown to have been the major cause of the 2007 event and every big one since, it's year-round melting.

Suggest how to do that, I did and will continue to point out there is no other geographic location that has a wisp of a chance at restoring that ice is the problem.

You can't be proposing having all the icebreakers out there spraying water all over are you?

I'm stickin' with a rational action at a closure to create a stable refuge for sea-ice with a chance that effects farther to sea. Another area is the MacKenzie delta where the meltout is early, to the west it goes really fast from edges showing when air temps warm the ice goes from both top & bottom.

The Dutch did 20-miles high-tech in shallow water thus the civil engineering problem to close it has precedent dealing with fast currents, it's not pie-in-the-sky armchair, my hero is Dr. David Rogers for years on savvy trying to be a good student applying it to coastal engineering.

That's why I continue to ask the pointed question of how within a decade can we have something in place that by then sustains sea-ice all year, the large estuary on the west is closed off to the sea in my plan, eh?

The other cringe is pumping water takes tons of power, so I suggest windmills, non-fossil mechanical power get serious if we can land on Mars we can make a windmill that runs all year in the Arctic, where's that can-do attitude now?

Restating the need is to sustain sea-ice it's not happening today who then is expecting it to get better somehow when so much open water can't be cooled off anymore?

Review yearly freezes and meltouts, I'm here to lead horses to water on this and the focal point is Bering Straits and closely north & south of it, then how the ice forms or melts out into the Beaufort.

That's my thesis, it's based on those yearly animations of extent plus the knowledge we have excess heat always degrading the ice from below year-round.

I don't think it's geophysically possible to restore the Beaufort sea-ice without closing the straits, if we want to close it we can, argue on that.




-tom

wehappyfew

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #83 on: May 21, 2016, 07:40:16 PM »
The problem with covering the whole Arctic is scale. Scale and the harsh environment. Scale, the harsh environment, and the energy required to operate all those pumps.

To preserve , say, 5 million sq km, with a 50% failure rate, at 1 hectare/pumping buoy... we need a nice round billion pumping buoys. Doesn't scale. Look how hard it is to employ a few dozen passive measurement buoys today. How many have lasted a whole year? 2 or 3, out of dozens?

Passive buoys are hard enough in that environment, trying to build a pump and energy source reliable enough is beyond our current engineering abilities. (we could get better at it, with practice).

What energy source will work? Wind? Icing on the blades, for sure. Moving parts (and especially the pumps), are going to fail. A billion diesel generators chugging away, adding soot to the ice? No. Solar - no sun in winter.



themgt

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #84 on: May 21, 2016, 08:25:52 PM »
I've come to the conclusion that nearly all geoengineering "solutions" face the problem that the same trillions of dollars they'd cost would have a far better ROI if simply invested directly into green tech deployment & R&D. And given the rapidly dropping costs of greentech, this problem gets worse the longer it goes on. It would be far better to focus energy on getting to zero-carbon than on crazy band-aids like this, however interesting.

magnamentis

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #85 on: May 21, 2016, 10:00:55 PM »
nice to see that there are people like you who got it to the point. much better to get rid of the problem at the source than to "medicate" the symptoms. very similar to "pills" vs. "nutrition" etc.
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Ninebelowzero

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #86 on: May 21, 2016, 10:24:09 PM »
Well if you were serious about doing something banning jet travel would be a good start.


https://www.flightradar24.com/57.04,-32.9/3


Only 1,500 of ~10,000 in flight usually displayed.

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #87 on: May 21, 2016, 10:46:31 PM »
Well if you were serious about doing something banning jet travel would be a good start.


https://www.flightradar24.com/57.04,-32.9/3


Only 1,500 of ~10,000 in flight usually displayed.

Yes, 0.2% standard for sulfur in Jet too.
1kg of CO2 for every 20km per person... Jet travel releases a huge amount of CO2.


Neven

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #88 on: May 21, 2016, 10:56:35 PM »
Also, IMHO, this thread does not belong here and should be moved to Policies and Solutions.

Yes, at first I thought I could leave it here as it was so specific to Arctic sea ice, but I think you're right.
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Anne

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #89 on: May 21, 2016, 11:38:46 PM »
SMH.
Back in the '90s I wrote a poem calling on Christo to cover the Arctic Ocean with white fabric, obviously pure fantasy. That was the point, really. It's good to have outrageously original suggestions and explore the possibilities, but please let's keep the discussion rational. Fantasy thread==> CliFi

Neven

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #90 on: May 21, 2016, 11:53:36 PM »
Now we want to see that poem, of course.  ;D
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timallard

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #91 on: May 22, 2016, 05:10:57 AM »
I've come to the conclusion that nearly all geoengineering "solutions" face the problem that the same trillions of dollars they'd cost would have a far better ROI if simply invested directly into green tech deployment & R&D. And given the rapidly dropping costs of greentech, this problem gets worse the longer it goes on. It would be far better to focus energy on getting to zero-carbon than on crazy band-aids like this, however interesting.
I agree that for most things it can be true to do "other things"; however, the cost of this is a global investment the ROI is a good chance to at least restore sea-ice seasonally at a higher extent & volume in this critical area.

Please understand there is a Phase 2.

This was yesterdays' extent and the entire western part of the straits are fully open note the eastern shore still has ice.  http://www.mallard-design.com/mdc2010/media/sea-ice-5-20-2016.png

Seeing this years ago began the idea of creating a large estuary to deal with it, that became the freshwater supply to the shipping locks and can be freshened by pumping the water to the locks from the bottom.

That means it freezes earlier, if snow dumps on it for this limited area pumping water to remove its insulation value is worth the hassle to allow cold air to cool the water below the ice, the trouble at sea with snow is that it does insulate !!!

That's bad, you can't fight the warmer water with cold from above because of the snow, with more moisture and warmer air there's more snow.

The goal is preserving sea-ice in the eastern basin.

[Aside: For those who never designed a vertical-axis windmill, they are superior to propeller horizontal-axis for windspeed range and in the case of Arctic operation I'll post details for DIY & TIY, test-it-yourself, no way want to waste time on non-shop-people worries.]

For scale that's a much easier total area to focus upon and does not get ocean swells and pretty narrow, about 10-miles to allow some artificial peninsulas & islands to break its fetch.

Thus the question on ROI in relation to restoring sea-ice is, "Will it help create a sea-ice refuge?".

The answer is yes and what else will? You must answer that because restoring the sea-ice is mandatory to thermally balancing this planet, to me it flips the switch from ice-age earth to hothouse earth.

That's with a high confidence even without modeling to know that by preventing the wave action and warm current the ice habitat will extend season and thickness in the embayment.

Once this point is reached, the dam in and effects have metrics all aspects are known to then make a decision on Phase 2: Cape Serdtse-Kamen to Point Hope, the route map:


This is obviously a larger undertaking yet now dealing with a known construction method, still tides and river outflow it will be a "controlled porosity" structure in places not a waterproof one costs more to do that and could be islands with intentional passages for tides.

This fishery & sea-mammal habitat is huge, preserving traditional sea-ice seasonal length the goal along with the overall goal of increasing the "seed" area to gain larger scale effects out into the Chukchi Sea, the hope that effects the edge of the Beaufort by 2-decades later.

With this closure having a much larger extent of still-water, the geophysical goal to cool the water to the bottom in winter to -2C to prove the technique can work; if it does, then we can build atolls around degrading methane zones using this technique.

On the global scale this is dealing with the worst emissions in the Arctic and hardest to control.

With methane 100-times more potent for a decade or so this is another feedback the method attempts to control physically, these atolls having pumps using windmills to keep snow converted to ice by having a structure able to slab the ice ramming into it during the season.

Consider now the history of polders, by starting small and building upon a foundation to expand, they took over a lot of sea then maintained it as it sank from desiccation as land.

For the Arctic it's easier & harder and this is only for shallow seas my focus the East Siberia shelf as critical to control the Pine Island Glacier of many beds, thus consider this next phase is a mgmt system.

In the next step it's oriented toward sea-ice related habitat while allowing tides & river flow with intentional freshwater estuaries with the goal of freezing the bottom in areas to prove a methodology to deal with the clathrates later.

Phase 2, Cape Serdtse-Kamen to Point Hope
« Last Edit: May 22, 2016, 05:16:15 AM by timallard »
-tom

timallard

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #92 on: May 22, 2016, 05:20:12 AM »
[A note to moderators thx for moving, sorry didn't think of it.]
-tom

Anne

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #93 on: May 22, 2016, 07:54:36 AM »
Now we want to see that poem, of course.  ;D
:P   :D

Ninebelowzero

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #94 on: May 22, 2016, 08:26:54 AM »
If bridging the Bering strait is a long term plan damming it might be the sensible thing to do first.


Engineering on a massive scale.



6roucho

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #95 on: May 22, 2016, 12:36:26 PM »
I've come to the conclusion that nearly all geoengineering "solutions" face the problem that the same trillions of dollars they'd cost would have a far better ROI if simply invested directly into green tech deployment & R&D. And given the rapidly dropping costs of greentech, this problem gets worse the longer it goes on. It would be far better to focus energy on getting to zero-carbon than on crazy band-aids like this, however interesting.
Agreed. We absolutely must start by reducing emissions. It's easy and safe to do.

And it really is easy. All we need is the political will. My view as someone working in the field is that it'll be net profitable for the world by a substantial amount. New industries are like wars: they catalyse growth.

But (and it's a big but) there may come a time when that isn't enough. We all know about tipping points. I'm a geo-engineering sceptic but I can foresee a time when we have no choice.

Then we're going to have to rely on our political system to put people who understand science in charge, lest we end up with fleets of drones spraying snake-oil into the air.
« Last Edit: May 22, 2016, 01:10:00 PM by 6roucho »

timallard

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #96 on: May 22, 2016, 04:55:16 PM »
I've come to the conclusion that nearly all geoengineering "solutions" face the problem that the same trillions of dollars they'd cost would have a far better ROI if simply invested directly into green tech deployment & R&D. And given the rapidly dropping costs of greentech, this problem gets worse the longer it goes on. It would be far better to focus energy on getting to zero-carbon than on crazy band-aids like this, however interesting.
Agreed. We absolutely must start by reducing emissions. It's easy and safe to do.

And it really is easy. All we need is the political will. My view as someone working in the field is that it'll be net profitable for the world by a substantial amount. New industries are like wars: they catalyse growth.

But (and it's a big but) there may come a time when that isn't enough. We all know about tipping points. I'm a geo-engineering sceptic but I can foresee a time when we have no choice.

Then we're going to have to rely on our political system to put people who understand science in charge, lest we end up with fleets of drones spraying snake-oil into the air.
Unfortunately consider that we passed the big tipping point on the sea-ice from the loss of albedo the warmed ocean water is now a global heat-source independent of emissions no fakey can replace the effects of having the ice there.

It's like changing your average speed with a 1000-miles on the odometer, it takes time to have an effect and we're at 3-ppm/year, an ungodly rate 10-times faster than the closest analog. the PETM for a massive carbon release. [Emiliani Lecture 2012 by Dr. Richard Zeebe covers this; 52:56; ]

So, while reducing emissions needs to be done leaving the Steam Age is required before any change matters to the total carbon load we shoved into the sky in the blink of a geologic eye that doesn't go away for 150,000-years.

Therefore geoengineering is required to restore the sea-ice, the conditions disallow stopping the continuing loss and all metrics show the "death spiral", the polar charting of extent & volume to not stop the fossil addiction with knowledge of consequences.

We now have the metric of 0.21-watts/m² direct heating that's worth a lot of CO2 equivalent so increases the amount of carbon we need to reduce, eh?

That's my thesis, to restore sea-ice to the Eastern Arctic Basin as mandatory to deal with it, the estimate to close the Med was a $275b, not even a trillion a pittance for all the oil & shipping companies that want to score in the Arctic as it melts back

So they now get to pay for a last-hurrah for humanity at restoring sea-ice in the Chukchi & Beaufort Sea and to deal with the largest methane vents using the same engineering methods to counter what they've done intentionally since the late 70's.

Loss of albedo takes physical action because it melts out early and forms later with a key area Bering Straits, that is the only chance of altering the two main things that we can control, warm currents eroding the ice from below plus the wind & wave driven disruptions that keep what ice is there broken up and thin, with "rotten" ice now becoming prevalent over wide areas this new to the Inuit, consider that bad.

This is a good animation to validate the seasonal cycles from '79-2011; 3:37;

From this animation can be seen my premise of early melt later forming in the Chukchi Sea & Bering Straits.

Bering Straits are the only narrowing of the two continents to try a closure that affects the current situation of early-melt, late-formation in this area that appears to lead the Beaufort melting back and resists closing in fall when northerly drift is dominant.

Humanity will have to close the straits if it wants the ice back, air temps don't matter, all that matters is sea temperatures and we're adding total heat to the Arctic Ocean in a large amount now it does not return to the sky in fall or the ice would be there.

That difference is a direct feedback, thus the tipping point was gaged by the rate-of-storage vs the rate-of-loss in heat-gained on a yearly basis.

Back to how does one restore the sea-ice or game-over in a short time, Charles Kennel's slide has the heat figures and the 1/5-watt/m² is equal to 25% of the CO2 forcing since 1979.

That implies if we had not been losing sea-ice the temperature of the planet would be lower, a big reason to consider doing something, doing nothing is game-over very quickly, would you say a decade is pushing it?

Time is not on our side at all.

« Last Edit: May 22, 2016, 05:57:30 PM by timallard »
-tom

timallard

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #97 on: May 22, 2016, 05:37:59 PM »
If bridging the Bering strait is a long term plan damming it might be the sensible thing to do first.


Engineering on a massive scale.



Yeah, that's a recent one yet it's a century old idea, this is a better video for what we need to do having the long history of Dutch engineering with closures:  "Holland's Barriers to The Sea"; 44.20;

For speculations on closing the Med & San Francisco this worth watching, the estimate for the Med is about 1/2-hour into it of $275b; "Earth Under Water - Worldwide Flooding | Sea Level Rise "; 45:07;

As stated instead of shooting it up it'll be in a floating tube to the delivery tube vessel free to move to place it accurately; the dredge fleets of small timers doing cladding rock to barges, the big rigs doing fill.

The top is given a mat & enough ballast until the next step goes on with the toe also periodically given mat & ballast as things go; if work stops you don't lose anything and near closure currents are higher.

Given we're losing on controlling emissions at 3-ppm/year the big jump up in CO2 at the end of the ice-age 1-ppm/180-years for context, and that the loss of albedo direct gain in heat from 2001-2011 were equal to 25% of CO2 emissions since 1979 it's a big heating and going faster, we need to restore the sea-ice asap.

It's more important and doable than fiddling with emissions now for any short-term solution where it's in place in a decade.
-tom

oren

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #98 on: May 22, 2016, 08:02:04 PM »
"Fiddling with emissions" by building global solar and wind electricity generation is easier to do than damming the strait, quicker, and has less unintended consequences and more benefits.
It has already been shown by several researchers in several publications that it (solar/wind generation on a global scale) can be completed in about 20 years. The dam - from idea to the finish line including all the debating, planning and building - will not be ready in less. The bigger the project, the longer the discussions beforehand.
It needs political will and starting money, the same applies to the dam.
It can be done incrementally on a country by country basis with fewer engineering question marks and fewer financial unknowns, and does not require global agreement beforehand.
It solves many more problems, such as ocean acidification, global warming and what have you, not just the issue of Arctic sea ice.
It avoids many unknowns associated with the proposed dam - what will happen to the Pacific? Will the warm blob become warmer and more persistent? Will Atlantic water enter the Arctic more strongly once the Bering flow is stopped? What will happen to Alaskan climate? What about sea migrations?
It avoids the risk of a catastrophic failure at some future time either due to engineering failure or due to sabotage/war.

timallard

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Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice
« Reply #99 on: May 22, 2016, 08:13:24 PM »
Expanding scope & looking at charts got to think that it may be best to close off only the NW end of St. Lawrence Island west.

The idea that enhancing an existing current shown in the nullschool screenshot to prevent a lot of volume going north, it delays that to the SE entrance which is shoals, that will create a battle worth modeling, it should reduce volume entering Bering Straits a posit.

That sunk in, perhaps it's actually a better option than Bering Straits?

This will also give sea-ice north of it some refuge and extend its season, forcing sea-ice  to move only the SE end of the island to Cape Romanzof which is all shoals less than 20-fathoms a dip to 22-27 near the island before trying to closing that part.

Having a barrier that far south should enlarge the still-water effect that far, a huge addition in area.

Route map and today's nullschool screenshot of sea-surface currents & temperature anomalies.


Notice the strong current from the west heading SE with much turning after the point, this will force that volume to fight outflow from Norton Sound until full closure for a model scenario.

-tom