Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread

[crandles]

Data available at
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/monthly.html

[AbruptSLR]

I voted for "Not even a single day"; but per the attached Climate Central plot, I will admit that in Sept 2016 it is conceivable that one daily value might drop below 400ppm; but I still doubt it.

[crandles]

Not many super El Nino year to collect reliable information, esp when they can end at different times of the year. This year could end a little sooner and more abruptly than 82/3 and 97/8. Still I get impression CO2 tends to fall rather slowly from May to Sept after super El Nino years.

[Pmt111500]

Ah, new poll. Thank you. Voted for 'not even a single day' but this isn't well based. I'm assuming the weather deviations by el nino will interfere with the physiology of plants so they won't immeditely be able to respond to the higher levels of co2. As El Nino years are not the normal years I'm assuming the evolution has preconditioned plants to work their best at other sorts of weather patterns. This goes of course only to plants that aren't cultivated so might well be wrong over the response of plantlife.

[TerryM]

I voted in the lowest box as I feel that this ship has sailed. I don't expect our species to ever see 400 again.
Terry
BTW - excellent graph ASLR, hope to see follow-ups.

[DoomInTheUK]

I went for never too. It will probably be close in September, but only for a day or two, and then that's it. 400+ for as long as we are capable of measuring it.

Yep excellent graph ASLR. Tick, VG.

[theoldinsane]

This is not only a "once in a lifetime" Thead, it is a "once in the human race" Thead.

But please, I do not want a change of the spelling in the headline. It is a memorable thing I never will forget and the misspelling will help me to remember this historical moment (although it is only happens to be a number among all the other numbers) Beautiful 

BTW, I voted for the second lowest. (Daily but not weekly or monthly)

[AbruptSLR]

Mauna Loa is in the news again:

http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/carbon-dioxide-levels-jump-record-amount-due-el-39235953

Extract: "The amount of heat-trapping carbon dioxide in the air jumped by the biggest amount on record last month, a rise amplified by El Nino, scientists say.
Carbon dioxide levels increased by 4.16 parts per million in April compared to a year earlier, according to readings at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii. Until this year, the biggest increase was 3.7 ppm. Records go back to 1950."

[Sigmetnow]

Keeling's opinion:  "I think we're essentially over [400 ppm] for good."

Atmospheric CO2 May Have Topped 400 PPM Permanently

Just three years ago this month, the carbon dioxide monitoring station atop Hawaii's Mauna Loa reached a significant milestone: the first measurement of CO2 concentrations that exceeded the benchmark of 400 parts per million (ppm). Now, they may never again dip below it.

As CO2 levels once again approach their annual apex, they have reached astonishing heights. Concentrations in recent weeks have edged close to 410 ppm, thanks in part to a push from an exceptionally strong El Niño.

But it is the emissions from human activities that are by far the main driver of the inexorable climb of CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. That trend, in turn, is driving the steady rise of global temperatures, which have set record after record in recent months.

Those CO2 levels will soon begin to drop toward their annual minimum as spring triggers the collective inhale of trees and other plant life. But because of the remarkable heights reached this year, the fall minimum, unlike recent years, may not dip below the 400-ppm mark at Mauna Loa.

"I think we're essentially over for good," Ralph Keeling, the director of the Mauna Loa CO2 program at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, said.

http://insideclimatenews.org/news/18052016/atmospheric-co2-carbon-dioxide-400-ppm-climate-change-keeling-curve

[Pmt111500]

The week, way back, in May 8 - 14, 2016, had 407.84 ppm of CO₂ at Mauna Loa Observatory. The week, further away in ancient times, in May 8 - 14, 2015, had 404.83 ppm of CO₂ at Mauna Loa Observatory. The week, in the previous historical period, in May 8 - 14, 2006, had 385.12 ppm of CO₂ at Mauna Loa Observatory. Those of you who have been taught to calculate, since the government cuts in education, may observe the rise in CO₂ if you are following the normal method of calculating the years, that is, you add one each time sun has passed the perigee, and not follow the cult that waits for the eventual destruction of West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and which calculates this to be the year 87. (Sorry, I slipped off the science in there)

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached NOAA image issued today showing the daily Mauna Loa CO2 value thru May 22 2016, we may have reached, or are near, the May peak value for 2016 at 408.97ppm:

[solartim27]

And it's just going up faster and faster.  I'm curious what this years average increase will be, and if the yearly average will ever go below 2 again.

[Pmt111500]

That should be it, thank you ASRL. Now to see how the plants will manage to absorb the stuff that's in and on the ground and the extra bit humanity has released from the long-period storage of dark places of the earth system.

[Pmt111500]

For the week of May 15 - 21, 2016 the number for CO2 was 407.29 ppm, 3.24 ppm more than 1 Year Ago and 22.08 more that 10 Years Ago. Oh what's the point in devising clever ways to express the same thing?? The smoothed top value for Mauna Loa was on about the same day as usual, I didn't bother to calculate it.

[crandles]

Week beginning on May 22, 2016:     408.31 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:     403.77 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:     384.68 ppm

Another big weekly increase of 4.54ppm on a year ago. I think that is 3rd highest annual rise (weekly data) after Sept 1998 rise of 4.67 and 4.59 of 6 weeks ago.

[Pmt111500]

CO2 at Mauna Loa :
Last Week, May 29 - June 4, 2016 : 407.53 ppm lots above the concentration
1 Year Ago, May 29 - June 4, 2015 : 403.37 ppm and even more lots above the concentration
10 Years Ago, May 29 - June 4, 2006 : 384.69 ppm .

Apparently, while El Nino is over in the ocean the atmosphere still has lots of excess of the ghg. All the trees here are still not in full leaf, so even they'll drop the amount somewhat. The two harvests the soils are capable of in many parts of earth won't be limited by carbon. that much is certain.

[Sigmetnow]

This will come as a surprise to no one on this Forum.    But perhaps it will help others to understand the seriousness of the crisis we face.

The atmosphere has hit a grim milestone — and scientists say we’ll never go back ‘within our lifetimes’

Scientists who measure and forecast the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere said Monday that we may have passed a key turning point. Humans walking the Earth today will probably never live to see carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere once again fall below a level of 400 parts per million (ppm), at least when measured at the iconic Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii, where the longest global record of Co2 has been compiled.

“Our forecast supports the suggestion that the Mauna Loa record will never again show CO2 concentrations below the symbolic 400 ppm within our lifetimes,” write the researchers, led by Richard Betts of the U.K. Met Office’s Hadley Center, in Nature Climate Change. The study was conducted with colleagues from the Hadley Centre and Ralph Keeling of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, Calif.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/06/13/the-atmosphere-has-crossed-a-grim-milestone-and-scientists-say-well-never-go-back-within-our-lifetimes/

[charles_oil]

UK Met office news alerts about C02

13 June 2016 - The rising concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide has passed a symbolic threshold early due to the fastest annual increase on record

The human-caused rise in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide is being given an extra boost this year by the natural climate phenomena of El Niño say climate scientists in a paper published in today's edition of the journal: Nature Climate Change. As a result, 2016 will be the first year with concentrations above 400 parts per million (ppm) all year round in the iconic Mauna Loa carbon dioxide record........... Rest at:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2016/MaunaLoaCO2_2016

[Steven]

The atmosphere has hit a grim milestone — and scientists say we’ll never go back ‘within our lifetimes’
...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/06/13/the-atmosphere-has-crossed-a-grim-milestone-and-scientists-say-well-never-go-back-within-our-lifetimes/

Interesting article. 

Here are some quotes from the paper (Betts et al., pdf-file here):

we present a
forecast, made in October 2015, of the CO2
concentrations throughout 2016

...

We predict
the monthly mean CO2 concentration
at Mauna Loa to remain above 400 ppm
even in its annual minimum in September,
which would not have been expected
without the 2015–2016 El Niño.

...

Assuming stationarity in the distribution
of daily values around the monthly mean,
the lowest daily CO2 concentration at
Mauna Loa could be between 399.45 and
401.05 ppm. Therefore the daily values
will be most likely to stay above 400 ppm,
although values slightly below remain a
small possibility.

[Pmt111500]

Period Week Atmospheric CO2
Last Week June 5 - 11, 2016 406.86 ppm
1 Year Ago June 5 - 11, 2015 403.30 ppm
10 Years Ago June 5 - 11, 2006 384.44 ppm

Ahem, the ocean has again started absorbing the stuff near Mauna Loa, hooray for the end of El Nino. (To give the most cursory explanation to the drop in the rate of increase looking the week to week numbers)

[crandles]

Week beginning on June 12, 2016:     407.20 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:     402.42 ppm

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html

Increase on a year ago of 4.78 is a record amount.

[crandles]

Week beginning on July 31, 2016:     403.47 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:     398.43 ppm

increase 5.04 over 1 years per weekly data is a new record.

[AbruptSLR]

Week beginning on July 31, 2016:     403.47 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:     398.43 ppm

increase 5.04 over 1 years per weekly data is a new record.

Apparently, policy makers (like Nero) like to fiddle while the world (or Rome) burns; as the attached US EIA plot (issued July 20, 2016) makes it clear that worldwide production & consumption of liquid fossil fuels is at an all-time high and is headed higher:

[TerryM]

Over production = lower prices = higher usage = lower profit = increased production to service debt.


Rinse and repeat until WWIII kills off production (and users).


Terry

[crandles]

August 29:     399.46 ppm
per
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/monthly.html

but maybe it will get revised or considered unreliable.

[AbruptSLR]

August 29:     399.46 ppm
per
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/monthly.html

but maybe it will get revised or considered unreliable.

This low reading was storm related as indicated by the linked article entitled: "Tropical Storm Madeline Sent CO2 Below 400 PPM":

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/tropical-storm-madeline-caused-a-dip-below-400-ppm-20657

Extract: "Tropical Storm Madeline brought the classic impacts of heavy rains, high surf and gusty winds to Hawaii’s Big Island on Wednesday night and early Thursday. But it also brought a rather unexpected impact: carbon dioxide levels dipped below 400 parts per million (ppm) at the Mauna Loa Observatory."

[Pmt111500]

Last Week September 4 - 10, 2016 400.97 ppm

1 Year Ago September 4 - 10, 2015 397.91 ppm

+3.06 ppm

[AbruptSLR]

To me the attached 6-month plot thru Sept 18 2016 suggests that the daily CO₂ Keeling curve reached a minimum around September 9, 2016 (note per the linked article the daily low of August 29 2016 was an outlier from the daily Keeling curve due to the occurrence of a hurricane):

https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/2016/08/31/brief-reprieve-from-400-ppm-era-may-be-thanks-to-a-hurricane/

[Pmt111500]

To me the attached 6-month plot thru Sept 18 2016 suggests that the daily CO₂ Keeling curve reached a minimum around September 9, 2016 (note per the linked article the daily low of August 29 2016 was an outlier from the daily Keeling curve due to the occurrence of a hurricane):

https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/2016/08/31/brief-reprieve-from-400-ppm-era-may-be-thanks-to-a-hurricane/

The autumn colors of trees here have started to show up. Making a wild extrapolation that means aslr is correct and there's no need to wait a week for the minimum though more cautious persons might just want to do it. 

[Shared Humanity]

To me the attached 6-month plot thru Sept 18 2016 suggests that the daily CO₂ Keeling curve reached a minimum around September 9, 2016 (note per the linked article the daily low of August 29 2016 was an outlier from the daily Keeling curve due to the occurrence of a hurricane):

https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/2016/08/31/brief-reprieve-from-400-ppm-era-may-be-thanks-to-a-hurricane/

Outlier or not, they did record a daily value below 400 ppm, likely the last in my lifetime. It would have to be one hell of a hurricane next year to achieve the same result.

This occurs the same year that the Cubs win the World Series. Coincidence? 

[AbruptSLR]

SciAm confirms that we will likely never be below the 400ppm mark in our lifetimes:

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/earth-s-co2-passes-the-400-ppm-threshold-maybe-permanently/

Extract: "In the centuries to come, history books will likely look back on September 2016 as a major milestone for the world’s climate. At a time when atmospheric carbon dioxide is usually at its minimum, the monthly value failed to drop below 400 parts per million.

That all but ensures that 2016 will be the year that carbon dioxide officially passed the symbolic 400 ppm mark, never to return below it in our lifetimes, according to scientists."

[oren]

SciAm confirms that we will likely never be below the 400ppm mark in our lifetimes:

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/earth-s-co2-passes-the-400-ppm-threshold-maybe-permanently/

Extract: "In the centuries to come, history books will likely look back on September 2016 as a major milestone for the world’s climate. At a time when atmospheric carbon dioxide is usually at its minimum, the monthly value failed to drop below 400 parts per million.

That all but ensures that 2016 will be the year that carbon dioxide officially passed the symbolic 400 ppm mark, never to return below it in our lifetimes, according to scientists."

Am I the only one viewing this statement as optimistic? 

[Pmt111500]

CO₂ Last Week,September 18 - 24, 2016:
400.87 ppm

CO₂ 1 Year Ago, September 18 - 24, 2015:
397.31 ppm

CO₂ 10 Years Ago, September 18 - 24, 2006:
378.61 ppm

Whole lotta CO₂.

[budmantis]

With a whole lot more to come, no doubt.

[Pmt111500]

Last Week       , Sep. 25 - Oct. 1, 2016 , 400.72 ppm
1 Year Ago     , Sep. 25 - Oct. 1, 2015 , 397.25 ppm
10 Years Ago , Sep. 25 - Oct. 1, 2006 , 378.94 ppm

(+3.47 ppm, +21.78 ppm , looking at percentages, atmospheric carbon dioxide might look like a pretty decent and a certain investment in zero-inflation situation, the fact that it isn't a corporation or company makes gaining from it pretty difficult, if not impossible. Also I'm afraid the external costs of investing in this commodity are not fully incorporated to its share value, making the investment, in long term, highly unfavorable despite the annual (or decadal) growth seen in numbers.)

[Pmt111500]

Initial values for
Last Week     , October 2 - 8, 2016, 400.91 ppm
1 Year Ago    , October 2 - 8, 2015, 398.51 ppm
10 Years Ago, October 2 - 8, 2006, 378.81 ppm

(+2.40 ppm, + 22.10 ppm )

[Pmt111500]

Last Week     , October 9 - 15, 2016, 401.57 ppm
1 Year Ago    , October 9 - 15, 2015, 398.03 ppm
10 Years Ago, October 9 - 15, 2006, 378.99 ppm

(+3.54 ppm , +22,58 ppm)

[AbruptSLR]

Last Week     , October 9 - 15, 2016, 401.57 ppm
1 Year Ago    , October 9 - 15, 2015, 398.03 ppm
10 Years Ago, October 9 - 15, 2006, 378.99 ppm

(+3.54 ppm , +22,58 ppm)

Here is a graphic showing NOAA's weekly Mauna Loa CO2 data thru the week of Oct 9 -15, 2016

[Sigmetnow]

A nice visualisation of atmospheric CO2 as we pass 400ppm for the last time, using weekly data from Mauna Loa
http://folk.uio.no/roberan/t/MLO_weekly.shtml

Click to animate.

[oren]

Wow. 2016, the year of the feedback indeed.

[budmantis]

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-37729033

"CO2 levels mark new era in the world's changing climate".

Although this isn't "news" to us, the image is rather striking.

[Pmt111500]

[CO2] Last Week,     October 16 - 22, 2016, 401.65 ppm
[CO2] 1 Year Ago,    October 16 - 22, 2015, 398.49 ppm
[CO2] 10 Years Ago, October 16 - 22, 2006, 378.94 ppm

(+3.16 ppm , + 22.71 ppm)

____________________________________________________________________________

Do you get enough sleep? No?? Maybe that's because you do not get enough oxygen! Buy our oxygen tent with very minimal operating costs! (picture of a lit greenhouse)

[Tigertown]

Noticed this Headline today while reading in the U.N. News Center.(Nerd Alert!)

www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=55387#.WA7Y6C0rLIU

At least they are walking what they are talking; note the air conditioner. You don't see that too often in a high rise building.

[Bill Fothergill]

With the monthly Global CO₂ figure for August standing at 400.47ppm, September represents the "last, best hope" that anyone now living - and possibly for many generations - will ever again see a Global monthly value below the 400 mark. The number should be published soon, but I'm not holding my breath. 
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html#global_data

As even the Antarctic stations are now seeing 400+, it will only be a couple of years until sub 400 is history there as well. 
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/antarctica-co2-400-ppm-million-years-20451

Thank God I'm an old git.

[Pmt111500]

Just wanted to say it's nice Mauna Loa observatory personnel let people see the daily cycle as well as in these graphs, not everyday experiences a small drop, but it's regular pulse.

https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/wp-content/plugins/sio-bluemoon/graphs/mlo_one_month.png

[Pmt111500]

Last Week,     October 23 - 29, 2016, 402.07 ppm
1 Year Ago,    October 23 - 29, 2015, 398.50 ppm
10 Years Ago, October 23 - 29, 2006, 379.55 ppm
(+3.57 ppm, +22.52 ppm)

[AbruptSLR]

Per the linked Scribbler article 2016 is on track to be the highest annual rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide increase on record:

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/11/01/2016-on-track-for-record-rate-of-atmospheric-co2-increase/

Extract: "During 2016, the annual rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide increase will have hit a record 3.2 to 3.55 parts per million (ppm)."

[ritter]

Per the linked Scribbler article 2016 is on track to be the highest annual rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide increase on record:

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/11/01/2016-on-track-for-record-rate-of-atmospheric-co2-increase/

Extract: "During 2016, the annual rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide increase will have hit a record 3.2 to 3.55 parts per million (ppm)."

Going the wrong way at ever-increasing speed. Nothing good can come of that.

[Pmt111500]

(revelations 20161107) And God set the instrument measuring the Carbon Dioxide at Mauna Loa pointing at values that counted up, by proper and exact calculations, to show the value of
402.81 ppm, for the average for the previous Week, that is, Oct. 30 - Nov. 5, 2016, since Sundays are the start of the week for this calculation, as has been decreed in the Manual of Measurements. 1 Year Ago, namely, Oct. 30 - Nov. 5, 2015, the value for this gas was, by God, 398.94 ppm. Thus the number had risen by 3.87 ppm from the last measurement done on the equivalent days of earth's rotation round the sun, not counting the long-period wobbles God has set on this. This the reader of revelations should remember. The value of 10 Years Ago, Oct. 30 - Nov. 5, 2006 was  379.61 ppm, as can be read in the verse 20061107.

Sorry for OT banter in between.

[Bill Fothergill]

@ PMT111500

As you are clearly such a fan of the Book of Revelations, perhaps you are also familiar with the book "Good Omens", written jointly by Neil Gaiman and the much-missed Terry Pratchett.

Possibly my favourite bit is when a bunch of hairy-arsed bikers happen to be present in a transport cafe when the Four Riders of the Apocalypse turn up. One of the bikers asks...

  "You're Hell's Angels, then? What chapter are you from?"

To which Pratchett's recurring character, Death, succinctly replies in his normal, doom-laden tones...

   "REVELATIONS. CHAPTER SIX.”

Returning to something more akin to the thread topic, further to my comment #43, the Global September figure has just come in at 400.72 ppm(v). So, we can now safely say that October 2015 was the last time that anyone living (and possibly for many, many generations) will ever see a sub-400 global monthly value.

Thank God I'm an old git, but I worry what kind of a biosphere future generations will inherit.