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Will CO2 go below 400ppm at Mauna Loa this year?

Yes, daily, weekly and monthly averages will go below 400 at some stage
1 (2%)
Daily and weekly values will go below 400 but not monthly average
4 (8.2%)
Daily values will go below 400 but not weekly or monthly average
20 (40.8%)
Not even a single day
24 (49%)

Total Members Voted: 48

Voting closed: June 15, 2016, 09:29:12 PM

Author Topic: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread  (Read 30288 times)

silkman

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
« Reply #50 on: November 08, 2016, 06:11:52 PM »
.....and August 29th 2016 was almost certainly the last single day with a Mauna Loa CO2 reading below 400ppm for an extremely long time. If one ever needed evidence that mankind was capable of geoengineering the planet then this, surely, is it. And still the GOP is in denial. Everything crossed over here in the UK for a Hillary victory today.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
« Reply #51 on: November 08, 2016, 07:20:13 PM »
... Book of Revelations ...
Many will know the apocalyptic "Book of Revelation" (AKA "Revelation of John" and variations on these themes) is the last book in the Christian bible and is deemed to be of a single revelation by ecclesiastic scholars (to the extent that I understand anything about such matters).  Those using the word "Revelations", including, apparently, Pratchett's character, Death, tend to be judged [Oh, no!] ignorant by true believers. 

Speaking of belief (and to wander back into on-topic), I wonder-if/suspect/believe the combination of increased CO2e with the large El Nino (just past) are major contributors to the current exceptional dearth of global sea ice.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

werther

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
« Reply #52 on: November 08, 2016, 07:50:59 PM »
October 2016:        401.57 ppm
October 2015:        398.29 ppm

An incredible 3.28 ppm rise....

Bill Fothergill

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
« Reply #53 on: November 09, 2016, 12:14:52 AM »
... Book of Revelations ...
...  Those using the word "Revelations", including, apparently, Pratchett's character, Death, tend to be judged [Oh, no!] ignorant by true believers. 

Guilty as charged.
To think of all those years at school and at university wasted learning frivolities such as Physics, Chemistry, Mathematics, Thermodynamics, etc., when I could (and should) have been learning important stuff instead.  ;)

... Everything crossed over here in the UK for a Hillary victory today.
Astonishingly (to me, at least) both the BBC and Channel 4 have been using Frank Luntz as one of their talking heads.  ???

For those perhaps unfamiliar with the gentleman in question, he was the author of a playbook written to the Bush (Dubya) Administration on how to handle matters pertaining to Climate Change. The search string "Luntz Memo" will bring up a variety of relevant hits, including...
https://www2.bc.edu/~plater/Newpublicsite06/suppmats/02.6.pdf

Back to the television now to watch the results come in. If DJT ends up with the keys to 1600 Penn, I might just top myself.  :(

Pmt111500

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
« Reply #54 on: November 09, 2016, 03:05:57 AM »
... Book of Revelations ...
Many will know the apocalyptic "Book of Revelation" (AKA "Revelation of John" and variations on these themes) is the last book in the Christian bible and is deemed to be of a single revelation by ecclesiastic scholars (to the extent that I understand anything about such matters).  Those using the word "Revelations", including, apparently, Pratchett's character, Death, tend to be judged [Oh, no!] ignorant by true believers. 

Speaking of belief (and to wander back into on-topic), I wonder-if/suspect/believe the combination of increased CO2e with the large El Nino (just past) are major contributors to the current exceptional dearth of global sea ice.

I've had my share of fantasy, yes. Tried to find a fitting quote of the Surah from my translated copy of Quran to explain the error, but got distracted again, just goes to show you shouldn't translate the book. It appears Mohammed had revelations, not John. I'm not going to go to other religious books on the shelf like Kalevala, parts of Poetic Edda, the Bible or Silmarillion here  ;)

Meanwhile, the Christians at Mauna Loa were uncertain of the true number on the eve of the election, I hope this has a natural Godly reason, and that this is not affected by the progress of election results arriving:
November 7, 2016, data too variable
November 7, 2015, 399.34 ppm

 
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
« Reply #55 on: November 09, 2016, 11:02:52 AM »
With President Elect Donald Trump waiting in the wings we could well be headed to a climate change apocalypse:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Heaven

Extract: "Modern Bible commentators view the "war in heaven" in Revelation 12:7–13 as an eschatological vision of the end of time or as a reference to spiritual warfare within the church, rather than (as in Milton's Paradise Lost) "the story of the origin of Satan/Lucifer as an angel who rebelled against God in primeval times." Some Christian commentators have seen the war in heaven as "not literal" but symbolic of events on earth."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Bill Fothergill

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
« Reply #56 on: November 09, 2016, 12:16:28 PM »
Bloody hell!   >:(

Auvoir Accord de Paris.

RCP8.5 here we come.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/rcp.php?t=3#PrimaryCharacteristics

ritter

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
« Reply #57 on: November 09, 2016, 05:51:10 PM »
Bloody hell!   >:(

Auvoir Accord de Paris.

RCP8.5 here we come.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/rcp.php?t=3#PrimaryCharacteristics

Yup. I'm calling it the climate denial trifecta.  :(

werther

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
« Reply #58 on: November 09, 2016, 07:14:34 PM »
In my opinion this planet is in "all over"-mode ever since COP15 failed. The present political and economic turmoil is one of the consequences. Most people seem not to discern this. I can't judge them. In a way, I can understand. It's a tragedy....

werther

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
« Reply #59 on: November 09, 2016, 07:17:41 PM »
By the way, Bill....

In France they will probably mention it as "Adieu accord de Paris"! We will never again see such an opportunity...

Bill Fothergill

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
« Reply #60 on: November 09, 2016, 10:49:24 PM »
werther,

I knew "auvoir" didn't sound quite right, but my feeble intellect couldn't drag up "adieu". As soon as I saw your comment, it was a bit of a Homer Simpson moment.

merde

(Completely OT, yesterday I met a couple of French visitors strolling aimlessly round our Devon village. I managed to dredge up enough school French to direct them towards the most photogenic part of the village, and probably quite surprised them in the process. Given my Scottish accent, most people have trouble understanding what I say when I'm using Ingerlish.)

C'est la vie

Shared Humanity

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
« Reply #61 on: November 10, 2016, 12:20:10 AM »
For those who come here from countries other than the U.S., I would like to just say I am sorry. We have lost our minds and you can no longer depend on us for anything.

Carry on.

magnamentis

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
« Reply #62 on: November 10, 2016, 12:31:21 AM »
werther,

I knew "auvoir" didn't sound quite right, but my feeble intellect couldn't drag up "adieu". As soon as I saw your comment, it was a bit of a Homer Simpson moment.

merde

(Completely OT, yesterday I met a couple of French visitors strolling aimlessly round our Devon village. I managed to dredge up enough school French to direct them towards the most photogenic part of the village, and probably quite surprised them in the process. Given my Scottish accent, most people have trouble understanding what I say when I'm using Ingerlish.)

C'est la vie

au revoir is ok if you want to say : see you later or see you again which is that precise translation

while werther pointed out that he prefers not to see that again in which case the term is

adieu, means good bye for ever or translated, be with god.

however, au revoir is a very common term to say good bye, similar like the spanish adios and the au revoir equivalent "hasta luego" or in terminator talk LOL "hasta la vista" :D

AbruptSLR

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
« Reply #63 on: November 14, 2016, 08:45:55 PM »
Here is a graphic for Mauna Loa CO2 concentration thru Nov 5, 2016
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

TerryM

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
« Reply #64 on: November 14, 2016, 09:26:56 PM »
ASLR
That is an amazingly effective graph, It not only shows the increase over time, but also the increase of the increase over time.
Do you happen to know if a similar chart is available that takes the accumulated effect of all greenhouse gasses. I'd love to see one based on a ten year timeframe.


Terry

AbruptSLR

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
« Reply #65 on: November 14, 2016, 09:46:37 PM »
ASLR
That is an amazingly effective graph, It not only shows the increase over time, but also the increase of the increase over time.
Do you happen to know if a similar chart is available that takes the accumulated effect of all greenhouse gasses. I'd love to see one based on a ten year timeframe.


Terry

Terry,

The graph comes from the linked Global Carbon Project site.  As far as I can tell they only post graphs for CO₂ .

http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/index.htm
&
http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/16/files/GCP_budget_2016_v1.0_FinalRelease.pdf

All the other plots of GHG CO2-eq that I have seen are not as nice and also use a GWP100 of 25 for methane instead of 34 (Edit: such as the second attached image by NOAA through the Spring of 2016).  Nevertheless, the attached plot shows that the other GHGs are increasing rapidly:
« Last Edit: November 14, 2016, 10:06:36 PM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Pmt111500

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
« Reply #66 on: November 15, 2016, 07:09:24 AM »
Filo pastry image is good. Thanks ASRL.
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Bill Fothergill

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
« Reply #67 on: November 22, 2016, 04:36:46 PM »
@ ASLR,

As noted by Terry & Pmt111500, the graph you posted is very effective in getting its point across.

Sadly, only certain types of variables lend themselves to this form of rendition. Each year, the concentration at any given date monotonically rises in comparison to that obtained for the equivalent date during the previous year.

It is this monotonic nature of CO2 concentration that makes this type of graph work so well. For intrinsically noisy data sets - such as Arctic sea ice extent - the overall effect would not be so good.

However, leaving that aside, it's still a bloody good graph - one that I fully intend to plagiarise.  ;)

Thanks for sharing.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
« Reply #68 on: November 22, 2016, 05:35:19 PM »
It is this monotonic nature of CO2 concentration that makes this type of graph work so well.

Bill,

Sadly since 2007 (when the plot begins) both CH4 and NO2 have also been monotonically increasing.  Thus I note that per NOAA CO₂-eq at the end of 2015 was 486ppm using a GWP100 of 25 for methane; however, I note that if one uses the correct GWP100 value for methane of 35 instead of 25, then NOAA's calculated value for the CO2-eq for 2015 would be 518ppm (and rising) instead of 485ppm (see Reply #65).

That is why Terry asked for a comparable plot showing CO2-eq, using the correct GWP100.

Best,
ASLR
« Last Edit: November 22, 2016, 07:27:57 PM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Bill Fothergill

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
« Reply #69 on: November 22, 2016, 06:01:59 PM »
@ ASLR

I should also have said thanks for dragging me up to speed on the revised GWP100 for Methane. I had still been thinking in terms of the value of 23 that was being talked about at the time of the 3rd Assessment Report.

CFCs have been largely brought under control since the Montreal Agreement, but I wonder (and worry) about HCFCs and equivalents based upon other halogens. I suspect that many of these will also display this pattern of monotonic increase.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
« Reply #70 on: November 22, 2016, 07:49:29 PM »
Bill,

With a hat-tip to Csnavywx, I provide the linked reference that indicates that China commonly under-reports their coal C02 emission; which commonly get updated later.  So one also needs to keep an eye open on the shell game being played on anthropogenic GHG emissions:

Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters and Robbie M. Andrew (28 MARCH 2016), "Uncertainties around reductions in China’s coal use and CO2emissions, Nature Climate Change, DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2963


http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2963.epdf?referrer_access_token=CQP0e8ieJx1p7TA4Hn6QaNRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0MzjhCJlVVAmG13-5PJDnSySK2Lxzv3D_ee1oyBWt_RNpsoeEXf8rGQ1sfSfZpnHLN21KeGCC5IysWOE3jY7AGT-hevVoHZP2jp5ylpvz3usEEnC2eT_4OFxH0CPHcOFJlJKy7ZZMDGY51QP_Jcm7BI285BkjiTSBAwR_z94dbuV_oRKKwHKYsyaewc4HfyV8mXb8vtZmOzb0Ii0gd8E65I&tracking_referrer=www.climatecentral.org

Extract: "Chinese coal consumption dropped 2.9% in 2014 according to preliminary official statistics released in 2015. This was hailed as historic after China’s meteoric growth in the 2000s.  The International Energy Agency used it to estimate ∼1.5% reduction in Chinese fossil CO₂ emissions for 2014, and an unprecedented 0.2% reduction in global emissions. Similar preliminary coal consumption statistics are announced every year, and will be watched closely after China’s recent slowdown in emissions growth and pledge to peak emissions in 2030 or earlier. However, Chinese energy statistics are frequently revised and often contain large anomalies, implying high uncertainty. For example, BP used different Chinese data to estimate a 0.9% increase in 2014 CO₂ emissions. Here, we analyse these preliminary announcements, with an approach that can be used to assess the robustness of similar future announcements. We show that the preliminary 2.9% reduction in coal consumption is inappropriate for estimating CO₂ emissions, that coal-derived energy consumption stayed flat but is likely to have decreased in 2015, and that Chinese fossil CO2 emissions probably increased ∼0.8% in 2014. We also analyse recent revisions of official energy statistics, and find that they imply 925 MtCO2 (11.2%) higher emissions for 2013, and 7.6 GtCO2 (9.2%) higher total emissions for 2000–2013."

Best,
ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Pmt111500

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
« Reply #71 on: November 23, 2016, 10:20:48 AM »
The data entries for the week of Nov 13- 19, XXXX are as follows:
Last Week, November 13 - 19, 2016, 403.74 ppm
1 Year Ago, November 13 - 19, 2015, 400.59 ppm
10 Years Ago, November 13 - 19, 2006, 379.96 ppm

the 3.15 ppm rise from the value year ago isn't likely notable in the human cognition analyses, whereas the 23,78 ppm rise from ten years ago can affect temperatures round the planet, that is, temperatures rise, which in turn may affect  people.
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Bill Fothergill

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
« Reply #72 on: November 25, 2016, 12:36:03 AM »
ASLR

Thanks for the Nature link. All in all, a thoroughly depressing read.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
« Reply #73 on: November 28, 2016, 12:11:04 AM »
ASLR

Thanks for the Nature link. All in all, a thoroughly depressing read.

Bill,

Depressing, or not, facing the truth can be galvanizing; & in this vain of thought I note that many officials (scientists & policymakers) blame the current high atmospheric CO2 concentrations (see the attached NOAA Mauna Loa plot showing values over 405ppm on Nov 25 & 26) on last year's Super El Nino (even though NOAA claims that we are now in La Nina conditions).  ENSO is a chaotic Earth System which can accelerate climate change via Lorenz attractors; so assuming that ENSO fluctuations will soon return us back to more typical CO2 concentrations, seems to me like wishful thinking.

Best,
ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Pmt111500

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
« Reply #74 on: November 28, 2016, 05:27:07 AM »
CO2-amount looks to be rising even in Late November compared to previous measurements in earlier years:

Last Week, November 20 - 26, 2016, 403.98 ppm
1 Year Ago, November 20 - 26, 2015, 400.30 ppm
10 Years Ago, November 20 - 26, 2006, 380.71 ppm
(+3.68 ppm, +23.27 ppm)
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
« Reply #75 on: November 28, 2016, 09:33:11 PM »
In addition to the influence of the ENSO on atmospheric CO₂ concentrations (see Reply #73), the linked reference & associated article discuss the effect of enhanced terrestrial carbon uptake from 2002 to 2014; which may (or may have already) change into a positive feedback with continued global warming:

Keenan et. al. (2016) "Recent pause in the growth rate of atmospheric CO₂ due to enhanced terrestrial carbon uptake", Nature Communication, doi:10.1038/ncomms13428.

http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms13428

See also the associated article entitled: "Rise in atmospheric CO2 slowed by green vegetation"

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-37909361

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Bill Fothergill

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
« Reply #76 on: December 02, 2016, 11:10:01 PM »
@ASLR

I was not overly impressed by the questionable end point selections that were employed in that Nature study. It is redolent of the "no temp rise since blah-blah" bollox that is sadly so prevalent in the world of climate change denial - or Flatland, as I prefer to call it.

I managed to find the annual growth data used to populate their graph, and I have plotted it below - without the arbitrary break-points.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html#global_growth

I also applied 3-year centred smoothing to a second chart. In this second chart, much of the argument for a "hiatus" simply disappears. However, in either case, the economic collapse of the Soviet Union (and many of its Eastern European satellite states) is clearly visible in the dramatic (but temporary) decline in emissions around the end of the 1980's.

http://www.nytimes.com/1991/12/08/world/carbon-dioxide-emissions-dropped-in-1990-ecologists-say.html

You might also be interested in looking out for a little book by David Archer called "The Global Carbon Cycle". As I only did one year of Chemistry at university, it certainly helped me with some of the concepts involved.



AbruptSLR

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
« Reply #77 on: December 03, 2016, 01:35:38 AM »
I was not overly impressed ...

Bill,

Getting the science right is difficult, but getting the interpretation of the science can be even more difficult.  If the Nature reference is correct that terrestrial plant absorption increased over the reference period, and if you are correct that no pause in atmospheric CO2 concentrations occurred over the reference period; then climate sensitivity is likely higher than consensus science is prepared to acknowledge publically (assuming that the increase in terrestrial plant CO2 absorption is temporary with continued global warming causing plant distress).

Best,
ASLR
« Last Edit: December 03, 2016, 02:05:24 AM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Bill Fothergill

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
« Reply #78 on: December 04, 2016, 06:31:07 PM »
The "confusing" aspect of the chart that was employed in the Nature article is that it relates to the rate of change in the growth rate, i.e. it is tracking a second derivative.

The scale on the Y-axis is given by the annual growth rate in atmospheric CO2, and is shown in ppm(v) per annum. The gradient of the chart is therefore the rate of change in the growth rate. (Expressing this as a derivative would be something like d2(ppm)/d(time)2.) One can attempt to make the case that places where the trend is non-linear give some insight into 3rd order (or higher) derivatives w.r.t time - although personally I think the data is too noisy for such interpretation.

The chart I used does have the benefit of including the 2015 data. As this is the biggest full annual increment (until 2016?) it makes the interpretation of some kind of slow down/hiatus rather questionable.

As I said, I think the break point selection was, at best, dodgy. The best analogy I can think of is with the temperature change "escalator" used on the Skeptical Science site. [I hate spelling "sceptical" with a "k".]
http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=47

crandles

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
« Reply #79 on: December 05, 2016, 09:14:16 PM »
Global not Mauna Loa but

October 2016:       402.31 ppm
October 2015:       398.60 ppm

Increase 3.71 which is a record high increase for any 12 months from any month since record began in 1980!

Edit:
Though not by much - next largest was 3.68 increase for July 2016 over July 2015, and prior to this year the record was 3.59 for Sept 98. Clearly ENSO is one of the main drivers for these departures from normal. So not greatly surprising.
« Last Edit: December 05, 2016, 09:34:58 PM by crandles »

Pmt111500

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
« Reply #80 on: December 06, 2016, 09:30:21 AM »
Period Week Atmospheric CO2

Last Week Nov. 27 - Dec. 3, 2016 404.38 ppm

1 Year Ago Nov. 27 - Dec. 3, 2015 400.75 ppm

10 Years Ago Nov. 27 - Dec. 3, 2006 381.24 ppm

I think a part of the rise is because of using turf as energy source. Many in Finland disagree. Happy independence day.
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Pmt111500

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
« Reply #81 on: December 13, 2016, 03:15:25 AM »
Last Week December 4 - 10, 2016, Mauna Loa Observatory, CO2 = 403.87 ppm

As we still get numbers from Mauna Loa Observatory, despite the planned future government, it might be a good time to reflect the amounts of CO2 at Mauna Loa in earlier years:
1 Year Ago December 4 - 10, 2015, Mauna Loa Observatory, CO2 = 401.25 ppm
10 Years Ago December 4 - 10, 2006, Mauna Loa Observatory, CO2 = 381.41 ppm

The yearly rise in CO2 was not as pronounced during December 4 - 10 as it was earlier this year. This on the other hand, has nothing to do with the election results, but is connected to the state of the ocean in the neighborhood (500*500 km)  of the measuring station.
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Pmt111500

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
« Reply #82 on: December 27, 2016, 10:56:47 AM »
The darkest week of the year:
Last Week, December 18 - 24, 2016, 404.52 ppm

Oops, I missed the numbers from the previous week, hopefully this doesn't ruin anybody's Christmas.
1 Year Ago December 18 - 24, 2015, 402.63 ppm

But it looks like Christmas week had the lowest rise for a long time, so interpolate, man, interpolate.
10 Years Ago December 18 - 24, 2006, 382.14 ppm

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Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
« Reply #83 on: December 30, 2016, 03:32:05 AM »
Thanks Crandles and Pmt,

Here are the full trending of the 1 5, and 10 year monthly change for October, 2016.

More is at: http://www.megiddo666.apocalypse4real-globalmethanetracking.com/2016/12/global-co2-october-2016-hits-record.html

Crandles, I decided to run the ENSO/El Nino change and CO2 increase by month to determine how much pattern exists, and I'll blog on that shortly.

Pmt111500

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
« Reply #84 on: January 03, 2017, 05:15:01 AM »
El Nino's contribution to the high yearly rise could be at the end?

Last Week December 25 - 31, 2016 404.78 ppm

1 Year Ago December 25 - 31, 2015 402.09 ppm (+2.69 ppm)

10 Years Ago December 25 - 31, 2006 382.23 ppm (+22.55 ppm)

Likely time for a new thread.
Amateur observations of Sea Ice since 2003.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
« Reply #85 on: January 03, 2017, 06:52:33 PM »
It is not good news when the daily Mauna Loa atmospheric CO2 concentration exceeds 407ppm with neutral ENSO conditions (see the attached image):
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson