Electric cars

[The Walrus]

it should be obvious by now that this whole project is a failure. it's going to/is bankrupt car manufacturers, insurance companies, the electrical grids, utility companies whether state owed or private and charging network operators along with the public and gov't's. it's a bad joke at this point.

Creative destruction. EV car manufacturers will flourish, see Tesla and BYD. Companies that fail to produce a good EV will find declining demand and eventual bankruptcy. Sad, but happens all the time.

Insurance will adapt. Sure, will be issues. But there is nothing uninsurable about electric cars in general. Specific models may well have problems.

Electric grids like the EV load. Mostly off peak, mostly deferable, all good stuff. And vehicle to grid may provide a large amount of grid storage to save excess and supply peaks. Likewise the utility companies.

Charging networks face a declining cost curve. The more business they do, the lower the cost of providing charging.

The joke is on those that think they can stay with internal combustion.

A healthy dose of optimism never hurts.  Just do not let it consume you.

[gerontocrat]

Just for a change, a post with some data.

Norway has published the 2023 data of registration of new vehicles and total registrations of wehicles, both by fuel type, from which I have extracted the data on new cars.

Up to 2023 Norway had a generous refund scheme for car owners that scrapped their ICEVs for a BEV. From 1 Jan 2025 seales of petrol & diesel cars stopped, including HEVs but not PHEVs.

Sales of BEVs really started to take of from about 2015, and at end 2023 25% of private cars on the road were BEVs and 82% of new vehicle sales were BEVs. Despite the ban on sales of new IVEVs from next year, my projections suggest it will be sometime in 2029 that BEVs form more than 50% of the private cars on the road, i.e. 6 years to get from 25% to 50%.

To get this far required persistent significant interventions by the Norwegian Government that I doubt any other Government has done or is likely to do, and even then was only possible due to the high income of Norwegians.

If Norway is the best that can be done, it is obvious (to me) that full transition to EVs (even in China) is likely to be a long and rocky road. BUT, every little helps.

double click table for fullsize

[John_the_Younger]

Interesting that they think ICEV sales in Norway will increase in 2024 (last year of availability), and exceed ICEV sales of the previous two years.

[The Walrus]

Interesting that they think ICEV sales in Norway will increase in 2024 (last year of availability), and exceed ICEV sales of the previous two years.

I suspect that it is precisely for that reason that they predict an increase this year.  People want to buy them, while they still can.  Once the government bans them, they will become more valuable.

[interstitial]

Interesting that they think ICEV sales in Norway will increase in 2024 (last year of availability), and exceed ICEV sales of the previous two years.

I suspect that it is precisely for that reason that they predict an increase this year.  People want to buy them, while they still can.  Once the government bans them, they will become more valuable.

While I agree that sort of thinking is the reason for the expected spike. I doubt that they will become more valuable.

[The Walrus]

Interesting that they think ICEV sales in Norway will increase in 2024 (last year of availability), and exceed ICEV sales of the previous two years.

I suspect that it is precisely for that reason that they predict an increase this year.  People want to buy them, while they still can.  Once the government bans them, they will become more valuable.

While I agree that sort of thinking is the reason for the expected spike. I doubt that they will become more valuable.

If people still want them in 2025 and no new vehicles are available, then used ones will become more desirable.  Supply and demand.

[gerontocrat]

Interesting that they think ICEV sales in Norway will increase in 2024 (last year of availability), and exceed ICEV sales of the previous two years.

My guess - last chance for those who still cling to ICEVs. Makes no real difference to the projections, which are all based on my assumptions, not Norway's.

I do not know if Norway will allow transfer of ownership of existing ICE cars after 31/12/24. If they do not allow this, ICE car owners will only have the choice of keeping it or scrapping it.

[interstitial]

Interesting that they think ICEV sales in Norway will increase in 2024 (last year of availability), and exceed ICEV sales of the previous two years.

I suspect that it is precisely for that reason that they predict an increase this year.  People want to buy them, while they still can.  Once the government bans them, they will become more valuable.

While I agree that sort of thinking is the reason for the expected spike. I doubt that they will become more valuable.

If people still want them in 2025 and no new vehicles are available, then used ones will become more desirable.  Supply and demand.

I understand what you were saying I just doubt that it will occur. Especially because gas stations in Norway are already starting to close or stop selling gas.

[Sigmetnow]

31 countries have surpassed a pivotal EV tipping point: when 5% of new car sales are purely electric. This threshold signals the start of mass adoption, after which technological preferences rapidly flip - Bloomberg
⬇️ Image below from: pic.twitter.com/IdD7H6JMMW 

Electric Cars Pass the Tipping Point to Mass Adoption in 31 Countries
Once 5% of new-car sales go fully electric, everything changes — according to a Bloomberg Green analysis of transitions underway across four continents.
 
Tom Randall March 28, 2024
 
 https://t.co/wMZKviS5OA  ⬅️ Bloomberg article link, with accessToken

[gerontocrat]

March 2024 US LDV sales from Argonne National Laboratory

Total LDV sales up 4.6% over March 2023, BEVs +10.5%, ICEVs +1.1%, PHEVs +55.7%, HEVs +29.7%.

BEVs 7.1% of total LDV sales, up from 6.7% in March 2023.

So BEV sales not so bad (and not so good). But how did Tesla do? April 23-24 may tell us.
Rapid transition? Not this year.

ps: In June the data for registered LDVs by fuel type should be published, from which changes in fleet number by fuel type can be extracted.

[kassy]

Rapid transition? Not this year.

Not enough cars yet and bottlenecks to solve.

[NeilT]

I understand what you were saying I just doubt that it will occur. Especially because gas stations in Norway are already starting to close or stop selling gas.

Also taxation will drive fuel prices to a point that owners will not want to run them except when absolutely needed. Which will significantly reduce demand.

[The Walrus]

I understand what you were saying I just doubt that it will occur. Especially because gas stations in Norway are already starting to close or stop selling gas.

Also taxation will drive fuel prices to a point that owners will not want to run them except when absolutely needed. Which will significantly reduce demand.

Fuel is already taxed quite highly.  I doubt it will go much further.

[Sigmetnow]

Q1 2024 BEV sales ranked by total units sold:

• Tesla: 386,783 (-8.5% YoY)
• BYD: 302,459 (+13% YoY)
• VW: 136,400 (-3% YoY)
• BMW: 82,700 (+28% YoY)
• Mercedes: 47,500 (-8% YoY)
• Ford: 20,223 (+86% YoY)
• GM: 16,425 (-20% YoY)
• Rivian: 13,588 (+71% YoY)
• Polestar: 7,200 (-40% YoY)
• Toyota: 3,500 (+86% YoY)
• Lucid: 1,967 (+40% YoY)
• Porsche: 1,247 (-18% YoY)

Q1 2024 BEV sales ranked by growth:
• Polestar: 7,200 (-40% YoY)
• GM: 16,425 (-20% YoY)
• Porsche: 1,247 (-18% YoY)
• Tesla: 386,783 (-8.5% YoY)
• Mercedes: 47,500 (-8% YoY)
• VW: 136,400 (-3% YoY)
• BYD: 302,459 (+13% YoY)
• BMW: 82,700 (+28% YoY)
• Lucid: 1,967 (+40% YoY)
• Rivian: 13,588 (+71% YoY)
• Ford: 20,223 (+86% YoY)
• Toyota: 3,500 (+86% YoY)

4/11/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1778501870899675516

—-
Nio Implements Second Round of Layoffs In 6 Months

The electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer Nio has already started informing and meeting with its teams in China about a second round of layoffs amid market pressure and lower sales, internal people told EV. …

https://eletric-vehicles.com/nio/exclusive-nio-implements-second-round-of-layoffs-in-6-months/

—-

NEWS: Cash strapped Vingroup, owner of electric vehicle maker VinFast, is selling off various businesses to release cash.
Source: cafef, a popular Vietnamese financial news outlet. pic.twitter.com/kwjhKTSjjG 
4/9/24, https://x.com/alojoh/status/1777862280337871009

From October 2023:

… INVESTOR ALERT: I predict that Vingroup's billionaire Chairman, Mr. Pham Nhat Vuong, will let VinFast (VFS), the electric vehicle startup, go bankrupt to save his holding company Vingroup (VG).
10/17/23, https://x.com/alojoh/status/1714359499446714399

—-
 
Volkswagen electric car sales plunge as Europe returns to petrol
Wed, April 10, 2024

Matthias Schmidt, founder of Schmidt Automotive Research, said Volkswagen had been impacted by the axing of subsidies for EV sales in Germany. The EU has also frozen emissions targets for vehicle fleets, stunting sales.
…
However, while electric car sales in Europe dropped sharply, they climbed by almost 91pc in China, Volkswagen said.
 
Not all companies are struggling: BMW said on Wednesday that its EV sales rose by 28pc in the three months to March. Deliveries of its battery-powered models such as the i4, iX1 and i7 jumped 41pc during the period.
 
However, multiple carmakers have pushed back plans to launch new electric cars amid evidence that drivers’ enthusiasm for them is wavering.
  
Bentley, the British car manufacturer owned by Volkswagen, has delayed plans to launch its first electric vehicle until 2026.
Supercar brand Lamborghini, which is also owned by the German car giant, will not start selling an all-electric model until 2028.
Stellantis, the car giant that owns Peugeot, Vauxhall and Maserati among others, on Wednesday said it would extend production of its petrol powered Fiat Panda until 2030. The manufacturer had planned to switch its best-selling city car to all-electric by 2027.
 
Other car makers have rowed back on their expansion plans. Ford has delayed production of two new electric models, while Mercedes-Benz earlier this year dropped plans for its range to be all-electric by the end of 2030.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/volkswagen-electric-car-sales-plunge-122915038.html

===

China builds 80 per cent of new electric cars sold in Australia as records fall

Five years ago no electric cars sold in Australia were made in China. Today, 42 per cent of Chinese-built vehicles sold are electric.
     
It is up from 37.4 per cent in 2023, 21.5 per cent in 2022, and an estimated 15.5 per cent in 2021 – months after Tesla shipped its first vehicles from China to Australia.
 
The top seller of Chinese-made cars so far this year is not a domestic brand such as MG, GWM or LDV, but Tesla – which is headquartered in the US, but builds its cars for Australia in Shanghai.
 
The Tesla Model Y electric SUV is the most popular Chinese-built car so far this year – even though it was primarily designed and engineered in the US – with 6835 deliveries, up 116 per cent compared to the same period in 2023. …

https://www.drive.com.au/news/china-builds-80-per-cent-of-new-ev-sales-australia/

—-
Tesla launches its 2nd-cheapest, longest-range Model Y in select European countries
April 11, 2024
The Model Y Long Range RWD starts at 48,990 euros ($52,500)
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-launches-model-y-long-range-rwd-european-countries/

[Sigmetnow]

Finding Signal In Noisy Auto Data
https://ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/finding-signal-in-noisy-auto-data
4 graphs, 5 pages

—-
 
Video: Steven Mark Ryan discusses a new ARK Invest group presentation
 
Notes:
ARK:  people are mistaking the cyclical, up & down nature of the auto industry for a decrease in EV demand.
They are disregarding that the Tesla Model Y was the best selling car in the world — despite a price that usually results in a Total Addressable Market of only 5-10%
 
When the price gets to $25k, that’s a ~50% TAM…
 
⬇️ See chart below.
 
EVs will continue to get cheaper, following Wright’s law.
And ICE VEHICLES ARE NOT GETTING CHEAPER, and in fact as volumes decrease, they’ll become more expensive as they lose the benefits of scale.
 
EVs won’t become profitable until companies scale up their volume. So pulling back the way they are now means their cost will continue to be high.  If they are not investing in EVs today, they are ceding the market to Tesla.
Like with COVID -  they stopped ordering chips, chips factories shut down, then it took two years for chip production to ramp back up again.  But Tesla did not, so they grabbed a bigger portion of the chips.
 
OR, perhaps companies have decided it’s not possible for them to transition, so they are just keeping all the money they can for the short time they have left.
Companies pulling back on EVs now will miss out on the transition.

Tesla’s AI Empire: $24 Trillion Revenue Unlock 


 
Or watch on 𝕏:
➡️ pic.twitter.com/xIMHnQfaTU 
4/8/24, https://x.com/stevenmarkryan/status/1777203467700093203

[Sigmetnow]

US issues auto dealers over $580 million in advance EV tax rebates this year
April 12, 2024
The Treasury issued guidelines in December aimed at weaning the U.S. EV supply chain away from China.
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-issues-over-580-million-advance-ev-tax-rebates-auto-dealers-since-jan-1-2024-04-12/

—-
Harbinger Motors says its EVs will beat diesel trucks in price by end of year
• Part of this is due to recent incentives. The Inflation Reduction Act includes a $40,000 incentive for commercial vehicles,
• The battery packs are filled with standard 2170-sized cells.
• The 4-pack is estimated to offer somewhere around 165 miles of range on a 140kWh battery pack.

Harbinger Motors, a startup building medium-duty electric commercial vehicle chassis, has just opened its manufacturing facility in Garden Grove, CA, with an aim to deliver the first upfront cost-competitive medium duty EVs by the end of this year.
…
The company is still quite new – it was only founded in 2021, and has a team of about 100 people total. But that team includes plenty of EV experience, with executives and engineers who formerly worked at Coda, Faraday Future, Canoo… and, of course, Tesla. Most notably, Harbinger’s Chief Production Officer is Gilbert Passin, who led Tesla’s production efforts in setting up its Fremont factory at the beginning of the Model S ramp.

The goal is as you’d expect – to disrupt and electrify the medium-duty commercial market, specifically in the class 4-6 range of vehicles. These classes cover a large variety of vehicles, like walk-in vans, bucket trucks, beverage delivery, school buses and so on. And these vehicles do a lot of miles, use a lot of gas, and make a lot of pollution, often specifically in places where people live – so the potential gains for electrification are high (which is a big reason why California recently released big new truck regulations).

But Harbinger’s model is a little different from other entrants in the space. … Harbinger is focusing on delivering stripped chassis, rather than finished vehicles or chassis-cab combinations. This allows for greater flexibility and simpler manufacturing for the company itself, and given that buyers are often going to need an upfitter anyway, there’s no sense in building up a whole vehicle when this way buyers can get exactly what they need. …

https://electrek.co/2024/04/12/harbinger-motors-says-its-evs-will-beat-diesel-trucks-in-price-by-end-of-year/

—-
BMW delivers its one-millionth fully electric vehicle
April 11, 2024

BMW delivered its one-millionth fully electric vehicle (EV) in the first quarter of this year, celebrating another milestone in its electrified journey.
 
“The BMW Group is continuing on its BEV growth path. With the delivery of its one-millionth fully-electric vehicle since the market launch of the BMW i3, we have reached a significant milestone that confirms the attractiveness of our product portfolio. …

https://www.teslarati.com/bmw-one-millionth-electric-vehicle-sale/

ChatGPT on the i3:

The first sales of the BMW i3 began in Europe in November 2013. The i3 is an electric car produced by BMW as part of their i sub-brand focused on electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles. It was one of the first mass-produced electric cars from a major automaker to feature a carbon fiber reinforced plastic body and was designed with sustainability and urban mobility in mind.

 
Tesla took 12 years to produce 1 million vehicles. The 2 million-vehicle mark took 15 months, and hitting 3 million vehicles only took 10 months.
 
On March 29, 2024, Tesla announced their 6 millionth EV.  It came about 6 months after reaching 5 million.
https://twitter.com/Tesla/status/1773775354315841596

—-
UPDATE 2-Ford cuts prices for F-150 Lightning XLT, Flash and Lariat variants
Apr 11, 2024
The announcement comes after Ford said it was shipping out the new F-150 and Ranger pickup trucks to North American dealers and restarting shipments of F-150 Lightning electric trucks, which it halted in February.
Ford had cut prices on its Mustang Mach-E electric SUV by up to $8,100 in February, after sales fell sharply a month earlier.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-ford-cuts-prices-f-181420991.html

—-
The future successor to the slow-selling Polestar 2 — “a sort of SUV-crossover type thing aimed at the mass market and competing with the Tesla Model 3 and Model Y” – will be named Polestar 7, counting on a fresh start.
 
Polestar reveals unusual succession plans for its electric 2
Thu, April 11, 2024 at 12:00 AM EDT
https://news.yahoo.com/tech/polestar-reveals-unusual-succession-plans-040000994.html

——
The Expansion Of China's EV Makers Could Threaten The Legacy Of European Automakers
Apr 12, 2024

The Italian government stated that it is talks with Tesla Inc, as well as with Chinese automakers, in attempt to get them to bring their manufacturing to the country and boost the national output after years of decline on the automotive front.

At an event in Turin on Wednesday, Italy's sole major automaker, Stellantis N.V. CEO Carlos Tavares warned that the arrival of Chinese car manufacturing in Italy would force some tough and unpopular decisions for the automaker. This move would likely result in Stellantis losing market share and sales volumes, to which it would have to respond by doing whatever it takes to accelerate its efforts to increase productivity and its competitiveness.

 
On Thursday, Volkswagen Group (OTC: VWAGY) revealed its plans to invest 2.68 billion to expand its production and innovation hub in China, more precisely in the city of Hefei in Anhui Province, with the aim of increasing the speed of bringing technologies to market by about 30%.

In 2022, Volkswagen got dethroned in China by the local BYD Company Limited who became the best-selling car brand, giving even Tesla a run for its money.…

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/expansion-chinas-ev-makers-could-173122161.html

——-
Hydrogen truck maker Nikola Motors sues disgraced former CEO, a TV personality and a company it partly owns
Trevor Milton has allegedly been trying to take back control of Nikola with the help of friends who bought rights to defunct Badger pick-up truck
April 3, 2024
https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/transport/hydrogen-truck-maker-nikola-motors-sues-disgraced-former-ceo-a-tv-personality-and-a-company-it-partly-owns/2-1-1619307

[The Walrus]

These tax rebates cannot go on indefinitely.  At some point, these vehicles need compete on their own merits.

[Sigmetnow]

These tax rebates cannot go on indefinitely.  At some point, these vehicles need compete on their own merits.

It’s a question of when, not if, rebates will end.  But Germany ended theirs too soon, and the country’s manufacturers took a major hit. 

Demand pull:
EVs are reaching price parity with ICE, and ICE will become more expensive over time, not less, as they lose the benefits of scale.  EV charging infrastructure and range are improving.

Supply drags:
To discourage foreign EV purchases, next will come import taxes on vehicles from China (some importers are already getting around that by transporting China vehicles to Mexico, making a few alterations, then bringing them into the US).
 
Then there will be “safety” requirements — and such rules can be tweaked politically to provide whatever obstacles are deemed necessary to choke selected import sales and benefit domestic companies.

[kassy]

If there are more cheaper models there will be less need for it.

Many manufacturers have not really started converting yet because it will also cost them loads of money. So it´s not all about the vehicles.

[The Walrus]

There are many customers who want to purchase an electric vehicle, but cannot afford one.  The other major obstacle is charging.  Not just the availability of charging stations, but those car owners who do not have a suitable garage for charging, are at a significant disadvantage.  They cannot take advantage of cheap, easy overnight charging. 

[Sigmetnow]

The other major obstacle is charging.  Not just the availability of charging stations, but those car owners who do not have a suitable garage for charging, are at a significant disadvantage.  They cannot take advantage of cheap, easy overnight charging.

That’s not the end of the world.  Most folks without residential charging can do just fine DC/Supercharging once or twice a week, much the same way they used to visit a gas station for their ICE car.  And it will still be cheaper, and they will have all the other EV benefits.

[The Walrus]

The other major obstacle is charging.  Not just the availability of charging stations, but those car owners who do not have a suitable garage for charging, are at a significant disadvantage.  They cannot take advantage of cheap, easy overnight charging.

That’s not the end of the world.  Most folks without residential charging can do just fine DC/Supercharging once or twice a week, much the same way they used to visit a gas station for their ICE car.  And it will still be cheaper, and they will have all the other EV benefits.

No, but they lose out on cheap charging options, such that they may not save anything over ICE vehicles.

https://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/hybrid-electric/a45195724/electric-vehicle-ev-cost-to-charge/?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=arb_ga_pop_m_bm_prog_org_us_a45195724&gad_source=1&gbraid=0AAAAADCyiSnfWr05cuJxKam-hc1jG6VRW&gclid=CjwKCAjw_e2wBhAEEiwAyFFFo-fe1x8P-_huiaBoCT9z5RNmpg6lYh4L0ZKxRq0nOG3MupRi44YvZRoCBBoQAvD_BwE

[Sigmetnow]

The other major obstacle is charging.  Not just the availability of charging stations, but those car owners who do not have a suitable garage for charging, are at a significant disadvantage.  They cannot take advantage of cheap, easy overnight charging.

That’s not the end of the world.  Most folks without residential charging can do just fine DC/Supercharging once or twice a week, much the same way they used to visit a gas station for their ICE car.  And it will still be cheaper, and they will have all the other EV benefits.

No, but they lose out on cheap charging options, such that they may not save anything over ICE vehicles.

https://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/hybrid-electric/a45195724/electric-vehicle-ev-cost-to-charge/

Fast-charging is still usually less expensive than gas, especially considering the oil changes, tune-ups and other ICE maintenance costs that an EV doesn’t have.  One oil change at a service center will easily cost more than 100 miles of Supercharging:

From the article:

The Costs
 
For a Tesla Model Y at U.S. average costs, 100 miles of home charging is $3.82, 100 miles of Supercharging fast-charging is $10 to $19; 100 miles in a 28-mpg compact SUV would cost about $13.70.
 
We picked the Model Y because it's currently the bestselling electric vehicle in North America. About half the EVs on roads in the U.S. are Teslas, and the company's compact SUV hits the sweet spot in the light-truck utility segment families have shifted to in great numbers.

[The Walrus]

The other major obstacle is charging.  Not just the availability of charging stations, but those car owners who do not have a suitable garage for charging, are at a significant disadvantage.  They cannot take advantage of cheap, easy overnight charging.

That’s not the end of the world.  Most folks without residential charging can do just fine DC/Supercharging once or twice a week, much the same way they used to visit a gas station for their ICE car.  And it will still be cheaper, and they will have all the other EV benefits.

No, but they lose out on cheap charging options, such that they may not save anything over ICE vehicles.

https://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/hybrid-electric/a45195724/electric-vehicle-ev-cost-to-charge/

Fast-charging is still usually less expensive than gas, especially considering the oil changes, tune-ups and other ICE maintenance costs that an EV doesn’t have.  One oil change at a service center will easily cost more than 100 miles of Supercharging:

From the article:

The Costs
 
For a Tesla Model Y at U.S. average costs, 100 miles of home charging is $3.82, 100 miles of Supercharging fast-charging is $10 to $19; 100 miles in a 28-mpg compact SUV would cost about $13.70.
 
We picked the Model Y because it's currently the bestselling electric vehicle in North America. About half the EVs on roads in the U.S. are Teslas, and the company's compact SUV hits the sweet spot in the light-truck utility segment families have shifted to in great numbers.

Yes, but an oil change occurs once every 7500 miles.  That is equivalent to 75 of those 100 mile supercharges, which ranges from $750 - $1425.  Much, much more than your average oil change.  Even factoring that in, your 28 mpg compact SUV would cost roughly $1080, or midrange for the supercharging EV.

[Sigmetnow]

The other major obstacle is charging.  Not just the availability of charging stations, but those car owners who do not have a suitable garage for charging, are at a significant disadvantage.  They cannot take advantage of cheap, easy overnight charging.

That’s not the end of the world.  Most folks without residential charging can do just fine DC/Supercharging once or twice a week, much the same way they used to visit a gas station for their ICE car.  And it will still be cheaper, and they will have all the other EV benefits.

No, but they lose out on cheap charging options, such that they may not save anything over ICE vehicles.

https://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/hybrid-electric/a45195724/electric-vehicle-ev-cost-to-charge/

Fast-charging is still usually less expensive than gas, especially considering the oil changes, tune-ups and other ICE maintenance costs that an EV doesn’t have.  One oil change at a service center will easily cost more than 100 miles of Supercharging:

From the article:

The Costs
 
For a Tesla Model Y at U.S. average costs, 100 miles of home charging is $3.82, 100 miles of Supercharging fast-charging is $10 to $19; 100 miles in a 28-mpg compact SUV would cost about $13.70.
 
We picked the Model Y because it's currently the bestselling electric vehicle in North America. About half the EVs on roads in the U.S. are Teslas, and the company's compact SUV hits the sweet spot in the light-truck utility segment families have shifted to in great numbers.

Yes, but an oil change occurs once every 7500 miles.  That is equivalent to 75 of those 100 mile supercharges, which ranges from $750 - $1425.  Much, much more than your average oil change.  Even factoring that in, your 28 mpg compact SUV would cost roughly $1080, or midrange for the supercharging EV.

Now add in all the other ICE maintenance costs….
 
Versus the cheaper, even free, Level 2 chargers popping up at stores and workplaces, if money is everything.
 
Bottom line: there are many EV options, and charging is only one part of the equation.  Lifestyle, affordability, convenience, all factor in.  There is no one best answer for everyone. But the joy and benefits of driving free of fossil fuels is real — once they go EV, rarely does one go back to ICE.

Martin Viecha
 
Super high retention rate of Tesla buyers is an underappreciated point. Especially given ~90% of Tesla's vehicles sold in 2023 were sold to people who never owned a Tesla before. Replacement cycle hasn't even fully kicked in yet.

4/9/24, https://x.com/martinviecha/status/1777767966106583411

[The Walrus]

The other major obstacle is charging.  Not just the availability of charging stations, but those car owners who do not have a suitable garage for charging, are at a significant disadvantage.  They cannot take advantage of cheap, easy overnight charging.

That’s not the end of the world.  Most folks without residential charging can do just fine DC/Supercharging once or twice a week, much the same way they used to visit a gas station for their ICE car.  And it will still be cheaper, and they will have all the other EV benefits.

No, but they lose out on cheap charging options, such that they may not save anything over ICE vehicles.

https://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/hybrid-electric/a45195724/electric-vehicle-ev-cost-to-charge/

Fast-charging is still usually less expensive than gas, especially considering the oil changes, tune-ups and other ICE maintenance costs that an EV doesn’t have.  One oil change at a service center will easily cost more than 100 miles of Supercharging:

From the article:

The Costs
 
For a Tesla Model Y at U.S. average costs, 100 miles of home charging is $3.82, 100 miles of Supercharging fast-charging is $10 to $19; 100 miles in a 28-mpg compact SUV would cost about $13.70.
 
We picked the Model Y because it's currently the bestselling electric vehicle in North America. About half the EVs on roads in the U.S. are Teslas, and the company's compact SUV hits the sweet spot in the light-truck utility segment families have shifted to in great numbers.

Yes, but an oil change occurs once every 7500 miles.  That is equivalent to 75 of those 100 mile supercharges, which ranges from $750 - $1425.  Much, much more than your average oil change.  Even factoring that in, your 28 mpg compact SUV would cost roughly $1080, or midrange for the supercharging EV.

Now add in all the other ICE maintenance costs….
 
Versus the cheaper, even free, Level 2 chargers popping up at stores and workplaces, if money is everything.
 
Bottom line: there are many EV options, and charging is only one part of the equation.  Lifestyle, affordability, convenience, all factor in.  There is no one best answer for everyone. But the joy and benefits of driving free of fossil fuels is real — once they go EV, rarely does one go back to ICE.

Martin Viecha
 
Super high retention rate of Tesla buyers is an underappreciated point. Especially given ~90% of Tesla's vehicles sold in 2023 were sold to people who never owned a Tesla before. Replacement cycle hasn't even fully kicked in yet.

4/9/24, https://x.com/martinviecha/status/1777767966106583411

Compare those to the EV maintenance costs.  Charging is not the sole expense.  The bottom line is that there are those on the bottom rungs that cannot afford an EV.  They will still be buying and operating ICEs for the near future.

[NeilT]

Compare those to the EV maintenance costs.  Charging is not the sole expense.  The bottom line is that there are those on the bottom rungs that cannot afford an EV.  They will still be buying and operating ICEs for the near future.

I'm not so sure about that.  If BYD could bring the seagull to the UK market at anywhere close to $13k then they would totally clean up.  But their vehicles are closer to BMW 3 series ICE prices than Dacia's without aircon (yes they actually sell them without aircon).

The ball is in the court of the EV manufacturers.  They need to scale EV to the point where buying an ICE becomes the more expensive option at the ticket price, not the overall price.

Essentially the battery still needs to drop by about 60% in price.  Then all bets are off.

[Rascal Dog]

Compare those to the EV maintenance costs.  Charging is not the sole expense.  The bottom line is that there are those on the bottom rungs that cannot afford an EV.  They will still be buying and operating ICEs for the near future.

There are many that cannot afford an EV today. Future is likely different. EVs should be getting cheaper. ICEs will get more expensive.


If the near future is a decade out, probably correct that buying ICEs will continue. Operating ICEs will probably continue for another few decades... with declining numbers. Show cars and museum cars for centuries or more. Might run on 190 proof vodka. Or other biofuels or synthetic fuels, vastly more expensive than gasoline once was.

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I'm not so sure about that.  If BYD could bring the seagull to the UK market at anywhere close to $13k then they would totally clean up.  But their vehicles are closer to BMW 3 series ICE prices than Dacia's without aircon (yes they actually sell them without aircon).

The ball is in the court of the EV manufacturers.  They need to scale EV to the point where buying an ICE becomes the more expensive option at the ticket price, not the overall price.

Essentially the battery still needs to drop by about 60% in price.  Then all bets are off.

The exchange rate to convert China internal currency to external currency is not available online or is hard to locate. As I understand it the rates are only available when you go to the Chinese bank and try to make the exchange. Their are strict controls on how much money is allowed to leave the country and you better believe that with all the capitol trying to leave the country that the exchange rate is very poor for the internal currency CNY to leave the country as CNH. I have no idea what the actual exchange rate is 2 or 3 internal CNY to external CNH


The practical result is if you buy something from China with 10,000 dollars. Then supposing you were able to sell it at the same price you bought it and tried to get the money out it would be some smaller number like 3,000 dollars. You do not have to buy something once you convert the money to CNY it is expensive to get it out by converting to CNH. Thus foreign goods are artificially expensive and can not compete. Normally the when a country increases their exports of goods versus imports their currency rises in value and things rebalance but that can not happen in China. The only way to compete with this is by adopting dual currencies in other countries.


https://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/convert/?Amount=1&From=CNY&To=CNH
ignore the exchange rate it states that it is just for demonstrating what an exchange rate looks like
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3109065/chinas-yuan-vs-renminbi-whats-difference
Some articles confuse the issue by saying the yuan is unit and renminbi is the name money and they are interchangeable. They are interchangeable but CNH and CNY are not though some less vigorous investment sites mistakenly claim they are the same.


That vehicle that is $10,000 dollars would be much more expensive if the CNH to CNY exchange rate was anywhere close to 1 to 1. The exact amount is hard to guess $30,000 maybe more or less.


Europe the US and most other countries can not ignore this much longer. They are both looking at and trying to decide how best to counter. I do not think tariffs will work well but setting up a dual currency will

[NeilT]

I was thinking more the other way around.  Sell them in Europe for $13k equivalent and then repatriate the money to China.  So the flow is going the other way.

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I was thinking more the other way around.  Sell them in Europe for $13k equivalent and then repatriate the money to China.  So the flow is going the other way.

Yes obviously the flows go the other way I was explaining at least one of the reasons why.  manufactured goods leave China but do not go into China that is by design and it is the problem.


Europe and the US are going to have to respond to the dual currency of China in some manner or their economies will be decimated. Both have publicly indicated their intention to address the excessively cheap car problem in some manner. They need to address the root cause and not just one product category. They both have mentioned potential import tariffs though at least in the US a complete ban has been suggested as well. Import tariffs protect internal markets but tend to lead to a loss of competitiveness in external markets.


If China had one currency or a 1 to 1 exchange rate the market would correct itself and Chinese products would become about as expensive as US and Europe. This competitive advantage is the reason China created a dual currency to begin. China is not going to give away this advantage. They will continue to blame us for not being as productive though that is not the issue. As democracies I think it will be difficult to convince the people of the US and Europe to make this change. I have not heard any other proposal that will work. I also am not aware of anyone else pushing the creation of dual currencies outside of China.

[Sigmetnow]

ARK Invest: 
With legacy companies turning away from BEV to hybrids and ICE, that will increase the battery supply, and prices should decrease even faster than usual.  This helps to set up pure BEV companies for success.
 
OEMs realize they can’t offer their customers a high-quality, low cost, long range EV — that’s become pretty clear — so they’re gonna go hybrid.  Hybrids will eat their ICE sales.  And pure EV companies’ products will eat both hybrid and gas.  So this is a short-term move, an “innovator’s dilemma”-esque type problem.

SMR comments on the ARK vid:
pic.twitter.com/mnIGOSXcXr 
 
4/17/24, https://x.com/stevenmarkryan/status/1780464958498566435
 
OR:
 
➡️ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxGSXXW6oH0&feature=youtu.be
15 min

—-
Base GMC Hummer EV2 reportedly dead for the planned 2025 launch year
Was going to start at $79,995 and offer 250 miles of range
https://www.autoblog.com/2024/04/08/base-gmc-hummer-ev2-reportedly-dead-for-the-planned-2025-launch-year/

—-
NEWS: Reuters is reporting Elon will visit New Delhi, India, the week of April 22nd to meet Prime Minister Modi. Elon is expected to make an announcement on plans to invest and open a new factory in the country,
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/teslas-musk-meet-modi-visit-india-disclose-investment-plans-sources-say-2024-04-10/

Elon Musk confirms the visit:
Looking forward to meeting with Prime Minister @narendramodi in India!
4/10/24, https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1778116984137245137

——
German transport minister warns of weekend driving ban
Germany’s transport minister has warned that driving will have to be banned at the weekends unless the country’s net zero laws are changed.
Volker Wissing’s FDP party wants the law amended so the polluting transport sector can miss carbon emissions reduction targets, as long as Germany as a whole reaches them.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/04/12/german-transport-minister-warns-of-weekend-driving-ban/

A less politically-correct article:
German minister threatens "indefinite driving bans" on weekends to meet climate goals

The FDP, the right-wing Alternative for Germany, and the conservative Christian Democratic Union have condemned the driving ban.
 
Clara Thompson, Greenpeace mobility expert, told the German press that Wissing is "shamelessly" trying to distract from his failures. Wissing has wasted two years blocking every climate protection measure in road traffic — now he is coming up with horror scenarios so that he won't have to do anything in the future either.

… there are other approaches to addressing climate concerns, like implementing a speed limit (which is apparently another touchy subject).  More than half of the highways in Germany have no speed limit. Earlier this month, Wissing stressed that the German government isn't looking to implement a speed limit on highways. ...

https://notthebee.com/article/german-minister-threatens-indefinite-driving-bans-weekends-climate-goals

[interstitial]

ARK Invest: 
With legacy companies turning away from BEV to hybrids and ICE, that will increase the battery supply, and prices should decrease even faster than usual.  This helps to set up pure BEV companies for success.

Those legacy companies have never produced BEVs in volume so battery supply and prices will not be affected much by that. The ramp up in volume from China will likely have a much greater impact.

[Sigmetnow]

Compare those to the EV maintenance costs.  Charging is not the sole expense.  The bottom line is that there are those on the bottom rungs that cannot afford an EV.  They will still be buying and operating ICEs for the near future.

 
I don’t know about other EVs, but Tesla is famous for the only maintenance that owners usually have to do is refill the windshield washer fluid and put air in the tires.

[Sigmetnow]

ARK Invest: 
With legacy companies turning away from BEV to hybrids and ICE, that will increase the battery supply, and prices should decrease even faster than usual.  This helps to set up pure BEV companies for success.

Those legacy companies have never produced BEVs in volume so battery supply and prices will not be affected much by that. The ramp up in volume from China will likely have a much greater impact.

Good point about the legacy companies’ minor EV volumes so far — although they have promised to ramp production… some day. 
But battery companies are still building factories, even in the US, so supply should improve while we wait for the old guard to try making EVs again.

Tesla supplier Panasonic weighs more battery investment in Kansas
TOKYO -- Tesla battery supplier Panasonic Energy is weighing additional investment in the U.S. state of Kansas despite concerns that demand for electric vehicles is slowing, Nikkei Asia has learned.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Technology/Tesla-supplier-Panasonic-weighs-more-battery-investment-in-Kansas

[The Walrus]

Compare those to the EV maintenance costs.  Charging is not the sole expense.  The bottom line is that there are those on the bottom rungs that cannot afford an EV.  They will still be buying and operating ICEs for the near future.

 
I don’t know about other EVs, but Tesla is famous for the only maintenance that owners usually have to do is refill the windshield washer fluid and put air in the tires.

The expected maintenance costs for a Tesla (model Y) compared to a Cadillac CT4 is about $400 less over the first 3 years.  The major cost difference is the oil changes.

https://caredge.com/maintenance

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Compare those to the EV maintenance costs.  Charging is not the sole expense.  The bottom line is that there are those on the bottom rungs that cannot afford an EV.  They will still be buying and operating ICEs for the near future.

 
I don’t know about other EVs, but Tesla is famous for the only maintenance that owners usually have to do is refill the windshield washer fluid and put air in the tires.

The expected maintenance costs for a Tesla (model Y) compared to a Cadillac CT4 is about $400 less over the first 3 years.  The major cost difference is the oil changes.

https://caredge.com/maintenance

The CT4 has an engine oil life indicator system under the best conditions it may only need changed once a year.


The real differences in maintenance cost come when the cars are not brand new though many new car buyers will not keep them this long. At 12 years the model Y is $914 per year or $6470 total and CT4 is $1936 per year or $12825 total making the CT4 more than double. Also the major repair probability is 23% for the model Y and 52% for the CT4.

[Sigmetnow]

A first look inside the high-tech recycling machine that’s gobbling up the equivalent of 250,000 dead EV batteries a year.
  　
Tesla Co-Founder JB Straubel Built an EV Battery Colossus to Rival China
Tom Randall April 18, 2024

Earlier that day, his battery-recycling company, Redwood Materials, flipped the switch on its first commercial-scale line producing a fine black powder essential to electric vehicle batteries. Known as cathode active material, it’s responsible for a third of the cost of a battery. Redwood plans to manufacture enough of the stuff to build more than 1.3 million EVs a year by 2028, in addition to other battery components that have never been made in the US before.

It’s a turning point for a US battery supply chain that’s currently beholden to China. The world’s second-biggest economy controls 70% of the planet’s lithium refining capacity and as much as 95% of production for other crucial materials needed to make EVs, according to BloombergNEF. Redwood is attempting to break that stranglehold by creating a domestic loop using recycled critical metals.

“The responsibility weighs on me,” Straubel said. “I remember feeling it in the early days at Tesla, when the other manufacturers hadn’t done crap yet, and we had a very palpable sense of holding the flag and running out into the field and saying ‘EVs are the future!’ We felt that if we failed, well, nobody’s going to follow. This is a little déjà vu.”
…

EVs already have a much smaller environmental footprint than internal combustion cars, even in countries that still get most of their electricity from coal. While the toll of mining the raw materials for batteries is considerable, more than 95% of the key minerals can be profitably recycled.

At Redwood, nothing goes to landfill, and no water leaves the facility except the sanitary waste from sinks and toilets. There are no gas lines; everything is electric. It’s also built for scale, allowing the company to quickly break down a truckload of assorted batteries without manual sorting or tedious disassembly.

Recyclers will eventually need to match the pace of car factories. For example, a Tesla factory just 250 miles away in Fremont, California, produced 560,000 EVs last year — more than one every minute. When it’s time for those cars to be recycled, they will generate almost 10 times as much EV battery material as the entire US market processed last year. If recyclers can handle all of that, they would begin to rival traditional mining operations.
…

RC1 is essentially an enormous slow cooker, baking the junk at several hundred degrees for about an hour, and is perhaps Redwood’s biggest innovation thus far. Traditional recycling through burning uses heat well over 1,000C (1,800F) to separate out precious metals, but Redwood’s goal at this stage is to preserve and prepare the materials for the next steps in the most efficient way.

Importantly, RC1 doesn’t use any oxygen — there’s no combustion and, thus, no emissions. It simply reduces the glues, plastics and unwanted fluids into charcoal. The high-grade black carbon left over can be sold for use in black paints and industrial lubrication.

The RC1 also uses surprisingly little electricity, which is key to lowering Redwood’s climate impact. Once the kiln heats up, the energy released from the batteries is self-sustaining. Think of it as a controlled, slow-motion version of a battery fire, running nonstop day and night, week after week. It safely releases the charge in any batteries that could pose a danger to workers, while breaking down the stuff that binds key minerals together.
…

Copper foil production has never existed in the US. For the last year, Redwood has been cranking out sample rolls for potential customers to test. In the coming weeks, the company’s foils will officially enter the supply chain to be used in American EVs, Straubel said. “It’s literally the first time anyone has made that material in the US — ever — for a battery,” he said.

Redwood’s single foil-making machine can supply enough batteries a year for more than 13,000 long-range EVs. …

The cathode, meanwhile, largely determines a battery’s performance, cost and environmental footprint. Getting the recipe right for the final black cathode powder takes years of work in partnership with each manufacturer that will buy it. Samples must undergo many rounds of testing and qualification before they’re ever put into a car.
…

The company is processing waste at a rate of almost 20 gigawatt-hours (GWh) a year, the equivalent of about a quarter million long-range EVs. That’s more battery recycling than Redwood and outside analysts had projected would be available in the US for at least another year or two. Straubel chalks up the accelerated timetable to unanticipated EV recalls and higher-than-anticipated levels of scrap material from new battery factories.

In other words: brand new factories make a lot of mistakes. Leach, from BNEF, said Redwood’s numbers led him to take another look at his models, which assumed that about 15% of factory output ends up in the recycling bin. But in the US, where so many factories are coming online simultaneously, that scrap rate could be as high as 25%, he said.
…

The competition for battery materials will be intense. Despite billions in EV manufacturing incentives from the Biden administration, China continues to outpace US battery production, flooding the global market with cheap supplies. After years of demand outstripping supply, there’s suddenly a global glut of both batteries and materials, making it difficult for new entrants to survive. Lithium prices have crashed more than 75% from their highs in November 2022.

Some of Redwood’s competitors have already been burned, notably Toronto-based Li-Cycle, which announced plans in March to lay off 17% of staff as it scales back expansion plans. Albemarle Corp., the world's biggest lithium producer, said prices were unsustainable and halted development on a refinery in South Carolina that could also handle recycled black mass.
Meanwhile, ambitious plans to build new US cathode plants from Massachusetts startup Ascend Elements, South Korean battery maker LG Chem, and Tesla will take years to fully materialize. …

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-04-18/redwood-material-s-nevada-ev-battery-recycling-facility-attempts-to-rival-china

Gift link:  https://t.co/LGdDNve2Yh

Thread:  https://x.com/tsrandall/status/1780981627872587926

[Sigmetnow]

NEWS: Ford has resumed sales of 2024 F-150 Lightning pickup trucks to after a quality issue halted shipments for more than nine weeks. autonews.com/manufacturing/…
4/16/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1780274759973941520

—-
NEWS: Rivian has reportedly started a new round of layoffs. 
 
Exclusive: Rivian Cuts Jobs For The Third Time in 12 Months
https://eletric-vehicles.com/rivian/exclusive-rivian-cuts-jobs-for-the-third-time-in-12-months/

—-
NEWS: Tata Electronics has reportedly signed a strategic deal with Tesla to procure semiconductor chips for its worldwide operations.
By the end of 2026, the first semiconductor chip from the new plant being set up by the Tata Group and Taiwan’s Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (PSMC) in Gujarat’s Dholera, India, will be ready to roll out.
 
Source: economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/cons-…
4/16/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1780394956521124253
 
——
Despite Hurdles, Vehicle Electrification in the US Is Likely Here to Stay, Finds Bloomberg Intelligence
- The BI survey indicates that 42% of buyers likely to opt for EVs for their next purchase
- Charging obstacles and affordability remain the largest hurdles to incremental adoption of battery EVs, albeit temporarily
- BI expects US Battery EV penetration to reach 25% by 2030

BI’s research shows that prospective auto purchasers who already own an electrified vehicle are incredibly loyal to BEVs, with the report finding that 93% would stick with their current powertrain for their next purchase, compared to 34% of gasoline vehicle owners who are deciding to opt for an electric car. Fuel-type stickiness suggests that EV penetration is unlikely to reverse course as the benefits to an electric vehicle could continue to outweigh costs to current owners; and this continuous preference for EVs is consistent across HEV, PHEV, and BEV owner segments.
….
Tesla still maintains an 87% brand retention rate, outperforming two non-electric automakers at 67% with Lexus and 54% at Toyota. 81% of prospective Tesla buyers are new customers switching from competing EV brands compared to 42% of Nissan’s prospective buyers. …

https://www.bloomberg.com/company/press/despite-hurdles-vehicle-electrification-in-the-us-is-likely-here-to-stay-finds-bloomberg-intelligence/#

[kassy]

RC1 is essentially an enormous slow cooker

And quite an impressive one.