Aviation

[Sigmetnow]

Bjørn Nyland takes a ride in the 100% electric Pipistrel plane.

great stuff indeed, interesting to hear also how much of the typical noise pollution is prop-based and not engine based,  quite a bit of a surprise.

Yes, I would have guessed a light plane’s engine made at least half its noise — the cockpit certainly seems very quiet when your instructor pulls a surprise engine-out drill.

But consider how noisy ‘ordinary fans’ are at high speed — even little fans.  And my electric lawn mower is loud enough to warrant noise-canceling earphones... when the blades are engaged.  Noise is the movement of air molecules.  And propellers and airframes do a lot of that! 

[Sleepy]

Malmö city employees have flown 137 laps around the world - to get to Stockholm...
Employees and politicians have made 10 354 flights to and from Stockholm in three years, equivalent to 137 laps around the globe.

The train between Malmö and Stockholm takes about 4 hours and 20 minutes, and realistically, the flight will save a maximum of 1 hour and 15 minutes. It's also much easier to work on trains. In practice, you will lose three possible hours of work per flight to and from Stockholm, compared with taking the train.

http://supermiljobloggen.se/dumheter/2018/09/malmo-stads-anstallda-har-flugit-137-varv-runt-jorden-bara-till-stockholm

I guess trains, work and emissions are equally boring to them?

[rboyd]

2036 Forecast Reveals Air Passengers Will Nearly Double to 7.8 Billion

https://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/Pages/2017-10-24-01.aspx

Airlines promised to do "offsetting" from 2020 onwards to keep net CO2 emissions stable, but such offsetting is very scam friendly and doesn't take into account the non-CO2 climate effects (that can be multiples of the CO2-only effect).

https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-challenge-tackling-aviations-non-co2-emissions

[magnamentis]

2036 Forecast Reveals Air Passengers Will Nearly Double to 7.8 Billion

https://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/Pages/2017-10-24-01.aspx

Airlines promised to do "offsetting" from 2020 onwards to keep net CO2 emissions stable, but such offsetting is very scam friendly and doesn't take into account the non-CO2 climate effects (that can be multiples of the CO2-only effect).

https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-challenge-tackling-aviations-non-co2-emissions

no capacities for that, not even at max airplane factory output and simultaneous major airport capacity increase.

won't happen

let's talk in 18 years though while chance is that i won't be around by then LOL

[rboyd]

no capacities for that, not even at max airplane factory output and simultaneous major airport capacity increase. won't happen let's talk in 18 years though while chance is that i won't be around by then LOL

That's only a 3.6% annualized rate of growth, so not that impossible to reach. Even the fact that IATA (the representative of the world's airlines) can make such a prediction and not cause consternation due to the climate change impact says so much for the surreal world that we live in.

[Sleepy]

Since the emissions doesn't stay here...
https://campaigns.350.org/petitions/stop-the-expansion-of-arlanda-airport

Stop the expansion of Arlanda airport!

The aviation industry have failed to present convincing startegies for sustainable flying. Still the government let the state-owned airport company Swedavia expand Arlanda Airport with 14 new gates and rebuildings to make room for more travellers. This would mean more frequent flight departures which results in heavier carbon emissions. With our petition we show that airport expansions are not supported by the public and that the expansion of Arlanda Airport must me stopped.

Aviation must be reduced:
The climate threat is acute. Today, the aviation is dependent on fossil fuels, and the technical solutions to make the airplane fossil-free are at best case far ahead in time. We do not have time to wait; therefore, flying must be drastically reduced.

[Sleepy]

Swedish recommendations on national television; how to fly green.
Video at the link, hopefully you don't understand Swedish and hopefully you won't try to translate any of this. Be warned if you do try. This is simply miserable.

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/sa-reser-du-miljovanligt

[Sigmetnow]

'Electric flying is becoming a reality', says easyJet CEO as they plan to test 9-seater electric plane next year
https://electrek.co/2018/10/29/electric-flying-is-becoming-a-reality-says-easyjet-ceo-electric-plane/

[DrTskoul]

'Electric flying is becoming a reality', says easyJet CEO as they plan to test 9-seater electric plane next year
https://electrek.co/2018/10/29/electric-flying-is-becoming-a-reality-says-easyjet-ceo-electric-plane/

It will take a lot of 9 seaters.....

[Sleepy]

Andreas Schäfer on electric aircrafts at Chalmers in Gothenburg, from September (in English):
https://urskola.se/Produkter/208665-UR-Samtiden-Elfordon-i-dag-och-i-morgon-Elflyg-mojligheter-och-utmaningar
Adding a snippet from the end of that video.

[RikW]

I think battery capacity/weight ratio is the most important factor for electrifying society and especially for the transport sector

[magnamentis]

I think battery capacity/weight ratio is the most important factor for electrifying society and especially for the transport sector

certainly a big factor but then the resources needed to build all those batteries in masses, thousands of times more than today, should not be neglect as an obstacle.

i predict that in case batteries become the main fuel tanks for most of mobility the damage done to the planet and society by collecting the necessary raw-materials will be as big or even bigger than the wars and pollutions we are facing for oil.

what i'm trying to say is that we do not only have to look at efficiency but at technology used as well and it could well be that Hydrogen will be the solution (fuel cells etc )because the main resources would be electricity and water.

i imagine something like one of the many deserts that meet the oceans like in south africa and namibia as well as parts of west africa etc etc.

while the above is something to consider ( adding to the discussion ) my personal opinion is that it will be a mix with hydrogen serving as main energy storage to fuel most things that are now fueled with fossil fuel. at least provided that no totally new, yet unknown battery (storage) technology will come around the corner

[rboyd]

When the global community (or perhaps the larger powers) get real about cutting emissions, one of the "low hanging fruits" will be aviation. How can one argue that my vacation in Thailand (from Canada) or the arrival of fresh tulips and other things overnight from distant places is not a luxury we could do without to save our societies?

With aviation "accounting for approximately 3.5% of emissions from developed countries", and with the additional nitrogen oxides emissions and contrails "estimated to be about two to four times greater than those of CO2 alone" it will be a low-hanging juicy target that is growing at 9% per year.

The options are batteries (for take-off), biofuels and perhaps hydrogen. All of these add to weight and/or cost, are nowhere near ready for general usage, and may have highly questionable net-carbon emissions (just like the EU has discovered with much biodiesel). We also have the case of US corn ethanol which has an EROI hovering around 1, simply a subsidy to US corn farmers. Only Brazil is able to produce ethanol (sugar cane based) at anywhere near an acceptable EROI. For hydrogen there is also the emotional (and practical) issue that was encapsulated by the Hindenburg. Hydrogen is extremely flammable, and therefore the general public would need to be brought around to flying in a "hydrogen bomb".

My personal feeling is that we simply end up flying a lot less (especially on long-distance "cheap" vacations), possibly reinvigorating some of those more local resorts, with flying returning to being more of an elite pass-time.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-11707135

[Sigmetnow]

'Electric flying is becoming a reality', says easyJet CEO as they plan to test 9-seater electric plane next year
https://electrek.co/2018/10/29/electric-flying-is-becoming-a-reality-says-easyjet-ceo-electric-plane/

It will take a lot of 9 seaters.....

”While they are starting with a small plane, Wright is trying the ambitious goal of building a battery-powered 150-seat plane to compete with 737-size aircrafts in the market for short-haul trips (under 300 miles).”

[oren]

When the global community (or perhaps the larger powers) get real about cutting emissions, one of the "low hanging fruits" will be aviation. How can one argue that my vacation in Thailand (from Canada) or the arrival of fresh tulips and other things overnight from distant places is not a luxury we could do without to save our societies?

With aviation "accounting for approximately 3.5% of emissions from developed countries", and with the additional nitrogen oxides emissions and contrails "estimated to be about two to four times greater than those of CO2 alone" it will be a low-hanging juicy target that is growing at 9% per year.

The options are batteries (for take-off), biofuels and perhaps hydrogen. All of these add to weight and/or cost, are nowhere near ready for general usage, and may have highly questionable net-carbon emissions (just like the EU has discovered with much biodiesel). We also have the case of US corn ethanol which has an EROI hovering around 1, simply a subsidy to US corn farmers. Only Brazil is able to produce ethanol (sugar cane based) at anywhere near an acceptable EROI. For hydrogen there is also the emotional (and practical) issue that was encapsulated by the Hindenburg. Hydrogen is extremely flammable, and therefore the general public would need to be brought around to flying in a "hydrogen bomb".

My personal feeling is that we simply end up flying a lot less (especially on long-distance "cheap" vacations), possibly reinvigorating some of those more local resorts, with flying returning to being more of an elite pass-time.

My personal feeling is that we continue flying as usual up until the collapse, unfortunately. The desire to fly and have that vacation in Thailand is very strong and prevalent across many levels of society, with the result of flight demand growing 7-8% annually. I strongly doubt that the masses will give up flying to save the planet. I fervently hope that some technological solution will be found to enable either flying on batteries, or to somehow synthesize aviation fuel using renewable electricity.

[Sleepy]

Re: large commercial ones: From the video in #209 above and Andreas Schäfer: "We need to start now in order to have these technologies avialable at mid century."
There is only one option left, stop flying.

Stumbled over this:
https://twitter.com/KevinClimate/status/1062300137731641344

Just noticed that I’ve been blocked by the international civil aviation authority @icao Have others working on aviation emissions also been blocked? Appears to be that their commitment to open skies does not extend to open (& courteous) debate?

[Sebastian Jones]

I recently booked a flight because it was considerably cheaper (to my employer) than the only other available alternative- driving a personal vehicle. The point here is that simply not flying, while needed, needs to be accompanied by some thought on alternatives and inducements. Of course a swingeing carbon tax would help....

[Sleepy]

Define "needed"? I resigned thirteen years ago and stopped flying altogether ten years ago when jumping out of a Cessna. My resignation hurt my economy and some thought I was crazy. But I'm still alive and actually far better off today, with less. I have time for my kids, I have time for my old lady, I actually have time to live instead of chasing what? Career? Status? Money? More stuff? More what?

Attaching a couple of slides by Nicholas, the rest is here:
https://www.slideshare.net/kimberlynicholas/academic-flying

[rboyd]

My personal feeling is that we continue flying as usual up until the collapse, unfortunately. The desire to fly and have that vacation in Thailand is very strong and prevalent across many levels of society, with the result of flight demand growing 7-8% annually. I strongly doubt that the masses will give up flying to save the planet. I fervently hope that some technological solution will be found to enable either flying on batteries, or to somehow synthesize aviation fuel using renewable electricity.

I tend to agree with you Oren. I see the collapse as a mixture of tipping point climate impacts and emergency "last ditch" measures that will fail while redistributing the impacts of collapse onto the poor - such as a swingeing fossil fuel tax that crashes many country's economies (Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iran etc., the tourism dependent Caribbean etc., and horticulture/flower producers in Africa and Latin America, etc.) while the rich simply grumble more and more about how much it costs to fuel their yacht and how they have to be "discrete" about their yacht usage and flying their personal jets from airports out of the way of prying eyes. Their "personal helpers" will be cheaper and more abundant though as unemployment rapidly rises. In this way the rich will be comfortable right up to the end of the crash period - just like the Romanovs.

[Sleepy]

_{Point one from Nicholas slide 9 above: Flying is unusual; increases with high income.
Adding slide 54 as well.}

[rboyd]

Unfortunately, we have an increasingly large middle class in China that is just getting into flying (as well as eating meat). The future is a wave of Chinese tourists swamping tourist destinations around the world. Just saw a story about officials from Tanzania visiting Hong Kong to push high-end tourism, with direct flights from China to Tanzania just starting.

[Sleepy]

The only way to change is to change myself.

[Sleepy]

An open letter to Danish universities: Let us show the way towards a more ambitious climate agenda
http://sciencenordic.com/open-letter-danish-universities-let-us-show-way-towards-more-ambitious-climate-agenda

The universities have a particularly heavy responsibility with regard to the implementation of an ambitious climate agenda, for three main reasons.

Firstly, researchers contribute to a particularly high degree of carbon emissions, especially by using air transport to travel to conferences. High emissions offer an equally large potential for reducing the researchers’ climate footprint.

Secondly, scientific authority is a key topic in the fight against climate skepticism. Researchers cannot expect to be taken seriously in the debate on climate change if they do not themselves implement the measures they propose. We have to put our own house in order first if we want others to listen.

Thirdly, the universities are ideally suited to lead the fight against climate change by developing and testing innovative, interdisciplinary and evidence-based measures for reducing carbon emissions. If new solutions are not developed at the universities, where else should they come from?

[Sigmetnow]

World's First 'Ion Drive' Plane with No Moving Parts Created by MIT Scientists

The researchers flew 10 flights using an aircraft with a five-metre wingspan, weighing less than 2.5 kilograms. They were able to fly it for up to nine seconds over a distance of 45 metres at a speed of five metres per second. The craft needed around 20 seconds to build up its power and was then launched using a mechanical bungee system.

While this flight time and distance might not seem like much, the researchers point out that they’re actually similar to the those of the first flight of aeroplane inventors the Wright Brothers in 1903. Making further advances in materials and power electronics, and optimising the airframe, could enable the craft to fly faster and for longer. It may also be possible to use solar panels to generate the electricity needed to power the ion drive.

https://www.newsweek.com/worlds-first-ion-drive-plane-no-moving-parts-created-mit-scientists-1227260

A more technical discussion here:
Ion drive meets drone, as small plane flies with no moving parts | Ars Technica
https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/11/small-drone-soars-on-an-ionic-wind-with-no-moving-parts/

[Sleepy]

New report from Chalmers on Swedish air travel.
https://research.chalmers.se/publication/506796
In Swedish but with an English summary:

Greenhouse gas emissions from air-travel is substantial for high-income countries like Sweden. The established accounting methodology for aviation, which is reported to the UNFCCC, is based on how much the aircrafts are fueling in each country (so called bunkering). We have developed a complementary indicator that includes emissions from the whole air-trip to the final destinations as well as the non-CO₂ effects (Larsson et al., 2018). In this report we have refined the method based on data from the Swedish airport operator, Swedavia, and analyzed the development between 1990 and 2017.

The number of trips per person has increased dramatically. Domestic air travel has not increased but international trips have doubled from 0.5 trips per person and year in 1990 to 1.0 trips per person in 2017, a yearly increase by 2.9%.

The average distance to the final destination has not increased much during the period since the number of both short and long trips have increased. The average distance is about 2700 km for a one-way trip which is similar to the distance between Stockholm and Madrid.

Emissions per person-km has decreased by 1.9% per year average. In 2017 the were 90 grams CO₂ per person-km, and if the non-CO₂-effects are included the emissions are estimated to 170 grams CO₂-eq. As a comparison the emissions from long-distance travel by car is about 50 grams per person-km, based on the average number of persons in each car on long-distance trips (3 persons).

The total emissions from the air-travel of Swedish citizens was 10 million ton CO₂-eq. in 2017, an increase by 47% since 1990. Emissions from domestic aviation is decreasing and now accounts for only 7% of the emissions. The emissions from international trips have increased and now accounts for 93% of the emissions. The emissions increase took place during the 90s. After year 2000 the emissions have been on the same level due to that the emission decrease per person-km have been on par with the increase in person-km.

The greenhouse gas emissions from Swedish inhabitants’ air travel is now about equivalent to the Swedish emissions from car use. The annual emissions from air travel are now about 1.1-ton CO₂-eqv. per Swedish inhabitant which is about five times higher than the global average.

[Sigmetnow]

The greening of the package delivery industry still has some kinks to work out.

Customers compare the noise from Alphabet spinout Wing’s delivery drones to a chainsaw

Wing, a graduate of Google parent company Alphabet’s X R&D lab, aims to develop drones that might one day be used to deliver packages to customers’ doorsteps. The only problem? They’re too noisy.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Wing’s parcel-carrying drones, which were deployed in a rural area of southeastern Australia in October 2017 as part of a pilot program, have disrupted the lives of some longtime residents, who say that they don’t use their yards as much. (The neighbors of a Wing customer who spoke to the Journal have requested that she “stop getting deliveries.”) And the noise — which some accounts compared to that of a chainsaw — tends to spook pups, a local dog club president told the publication.

The current-gen Wing drones can fly at speeds of up to 78 miles per hour and take off and land vertically, thanks to a dozen vertical rotors and two propellers. Automated flight-planning software determines their route, while onboard sensors help them to avoid obstacles.

Despite the sophisticated onboard tech, though, sounds aren’t the only problem Wing’s drones have yet to overcome. User error has resulted in at least one accidental delivery, and the drones are sometimes forced to land due to high winds and obstructions. (According to the Journal, they’ve needed to touch down five times out of 2,000 deliveries.) Moreover, the product selection remains rather small — Wing’s currently working with Guzman y Gomez, to deliver Mexican food and Chemist Warehouse, a pharmacy chain.

But Wing contends that its drone program could result in substantial savings for — and a smaller carbon footprint from — local businesses. A commissioned report cited $9 million in annual cost savings, while a Rand Corporation study forecasted a 6 percent reduction in energy usage compared to trucks. ...

https://venturebeat.com/2018/12/27/alphabet-spinout-wings-drones-are-too-noisy-customers-say/

[Sigmetnow]

I see the attraction for wireless and autonomous charging, but, in-air? 
I guess that feature would allow recharging stations to be set up in places where a flat landing surface might be difficult to install, such as over steeply sloped or glass roofs, or in rugged or mountainous areas where landing a drone to charge would make it too vulnerable to wildlife (or humans).

Wireless charging hotspots lets drones fly forever through in-air recharges
https://www.teslarati.com/wireless-charging-drone-in-air-ces-global-energy/

[rboyd]

The sales of reloadable shotguns may also increase ...

[Ranman99]

The rise in re-loadable shotgun sales is a given me thinks just about for all the reasons we are seeing in this forum ;-)

[Grubbegrabben]

New report from Chalmers on Swedish air travel.
https://research.chalmers.se/publication/506796
In Swedish but with an English summary:

....
The greenhouse gas emissions from Swedish inhabitants’ air travel is now about equivalent to the Swedish emissions from car use. The annual emissions from air travel are now about 1.1-ton CO₂-eqv. per Swedish inhabitant which is about five times higher than the global average.

Since there are statistics for about everything (and I was a bit curious), it can be noted that the Swedish forestry industry cut down about 36.5 million m³ of trees for construction purposes (2017). The conversion factor to CO₂-eqv is about 190 kg CO₂ to 1 m³ wood which sums up to 7M ton CO₂. So more than half of the annual emissions (10M ton) from air travel is stored in IKEA furniture. Let's hope they last.

Obviously a joke, hopefully people will realize how stupid it is to travel by air.