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viddaloo

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It's the population, stupid!
« on: January 31, 2015, 01:47:33 AM »
LA Times linking the population bomb to the climate catastrophe:

[]

johnm33

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JimD

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Re: It's the population, stupid!
« Reply #2 on: January 31, 2015, 05:02:06 PM »
johnm33

Let me expand a bit on your post with a few excerpts from it.

Quote
Sensitive subject or not, the reality is that unsustainable human population growth is a potential disaster for efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions. These days, the biggest population growth is occurring in developing nations, which is why any discussion must be sensitive to the perception that well-off, industrialized nations — the biggest climate polluters, often with majority-white populations — might be telling impoverished people of color to reduce their numbers. In fact, person for person, reducing birth rates in industrialized nations has a bigger impact on greenhouse gas emissions because affluent people use more of the Earth's resources and depend more heavily on fossil fuels....... this month the United Nations raised its prediction of population growth by the year 2050 because of unforeseen, rising birth rates in industrialized nations.

Rich people emit more as we all know.  And so much for the argument about declining birth rates.  And of course we are hell bent on rising affluence globally are we not?  Kind of a problem there isn't there.

Quote
...Another 2010 report, by the nonprofit Center for Global Development in Washington, D.C, predicted that fast-growing developing countries will become the dominant emitters of greenhouse gases within a generation. ...

The effects of population growth and rising affluence.

Quote
.....The most recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the United Nations' board of climate experts, included concerns about population size, saying, “Globally, economic and population growth continued to be the most important drivers of increases in CO2 emissions from fossil fuels.” .....

If we continue on our present BAU paths we will arrive at 2050 with about 40% more people than we have today.  And if we continue BAU (and I am talking about both the fossil and renewable BAU's) of attempting to grow our economies and raise affluence across the globe where will we end up?

With higher emissions.  As the growth of the population and rising affluence will easily completely overwhelm any of the proposed BAU attempts to deal with climate change and declining global carrying capacity.  We will drive into the wall of catastrophic collapse when it could have been avoided.

We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Laurent

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AbruptSLR

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Re: It's the population, stupid!
« Reply #4 on: February 03, 2015, 05:19:28 PM »
The linked Huffington Post article indicates that experts believe that giving women around the world more access to birth control would be very effective at limiting population growth and its impact on climate change:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/02/03/birth-control-climate-change_n_6603674.html
« Last Edit: February 17, 2015, 06:10:07 PM by AbruptSLR »
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JimD

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Re: It's the population, stupid!
« Reply #5 on: February 17, 2015, 04:25:36 PM »
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

AbruptSLR

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Re: It's the population, stupid!
« Reply #6 on: January 23, 2016, 02:09:10 AM »
I am not sure that scientists have a good handle on what population to expect in Africa this century:

Scientific American 314, 56 - 63 (2016)
19 January 2016 | doi:10.1038/scientificamerican0216-56

Six Billion in Africa

Robert Engelman

By 2100 Africa's population could be three billion to 6.1 billion, up sharply from 1.2 billion today, if birth rates remain stubbornly high. This unexpected rise will stress already fragile resources in Africa and around the world.
A significant fertility decline can be achieved only if women are empowered educationally, economically, socially and politically. They must also be given easy and affordable access to contraceptives. Following this integrated strategy, Mauritius has lowered its fertility rate from six to 1.5 children; Tunisia's rate dropped from seven to two.
Men also have to relinquish sole control over the decision to have children and refrain from abusing wives or partners who seek birth control.
For such efforts to succeed ultimately, government leaders must encourage public and policy conversations about slower population growth.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

oren

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Re: It's the population, stupid!
« Reply #7 on: January 23, 2016, 10:38:46 AM »
These forecasts might not be wrong about the birth rate, but they are surely wrong about the death rate. No way Africa will sustain 6 billion by 2100.

johnm33

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Re: It's the population, stupid!
« Reply #8 on: January 23, 2016, 02:20:12 PM »
Mauritius has lowered its fertility rate from six to 1.5
Mauritius [Indian ocean] or Mauritania [West Africa]?
 http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=mr&v=25

JimD

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Re: It's the population, stupid!
« Reply #9 on: January 23, 2016, 03:42:29 PM »
All of these fertility rates folks post thinking they make the UN figures wrong fail to realize that the UN is fully aware of them and already takes them into account.

The UN's high numbers are arrived at by assuming we will always be able to grow enough food globally  to feed them and that climate change and various carrying capacity issues are not taken into account.  The 2100 population forecasts will certainly not ever be reached and even the 2050 numbers are very unlikely when one takes into account all factors. 

But it will not be a fertility rate decline which will provide the lower totals.  Rather it will be a huge rise in the death rate due to famine, disease and war.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

oren

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Re: It's the population, stupid!
« Reply #10 on: January 23, 2016, 04:25:00 PM »
All of these fertility rates folks post thinking they make the UN figures wrong fail to realize that the UN is fully aware of them and already takes them into account.

The UN's high numbers are arrived at by assuming we will always be able to grow enough food globally  to feed them and that climate change and various carrying capacity issues are not taken into account.  The 2100 population forecasts will certainly not ever be reached and even the 2050 numbers are very unlikely when one takes into account all factors. 

But it will not be a fertility rate decline which will provide the lower totals.  Rather it will be a huge rise in the death rate due to famine, disease and war.

Exactly.

AbruptSLR

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Re: It's the population, stupid!
« Reply #11 on: January 23, 2016, 05:28:09 PM »
All of these fertility rates folks post thinking they make the UN figures wrong fail to realize that the UN is fully aware of them and already takes them into account.

The UN's high numbers are arrived at by assuming we will always be able to grow enough food globally  to feed them and that climate change and various carrying capacity issues are not taken into account.

I guess that the point is that the UN keeps increasing their figures every few years, with their latest numbers (see plot after China changed their policy in 2015) showing 9.7 Billion +/- 1.5 Billion by 2050 (& the article points out that most of the uncertainty in the UN forecasts are associated with African fertility.  For instance the fertility in Niger was 7.6 from 2010-2015). 
« Last Edit: January 23, 2016, 05:47:55 PM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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JimD

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Re: It's the population, stupid!
« Reply #12 on: January 23, 2016, 06:51:56 PM »
ASLR

One of the reasons they keep raising the numbers is that they are finding that fertility rates do not just keep falling and in some cases have started to rise again.  Then there is China and India.  There is certain to be a surge in births in China and India is just plain crazy.

Politics and social tabu's make it almost impossible to discuss population growth and totals in a rational manner.  But population is the critical path issue and everything hinges on it.  To ignore it, as is the global policy, guarantees that there is no known solution ... other than miracles of course.  Or alien intervention...hopefully they don't think we are tasty....or that we need to be exterminated since we are all sociopaths.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Sigmetnow

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Re: It's the population, stupid!
« Reply #13 on: January 25, 2016, 06:18:24 PM »
Nature has its own ways of limiting population growth.

Bill McKibben tweeted:  "The zika virus seems uniquely alarming to me. 5 nations have told their residents to stop getting pregnant."
https://twitter.com/billmckibben/status/691625538348257280

The Zika virus foreshadows our dystopian climate future
The mosquito-borne disease shows that pushing the limits of the planet’s ecology has become dangerous in novel ways
Quote
Spread by mosquitoes whose range inexorably expands as the climate warms, Zika causes mild flu-like symptoms. But pregnant women bitten by the wrong mosquito are liable to give birth to babies with shrunken heads. Brazil last year recorded 4,000 cases of this “microcephaly”. As of today, authorities in Brazil, Colombia, Jamaica, El Salvador and Venezuela were urging women to avoid getting pregnant.
http://linkis.com/www.theguardian.com/y6BnO
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Buddy

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Re: It's the population, stupid!
« Reply #14 on: January 25, 2016, 07:49:44 PM »
Japanese saying "no thanks" to sex.  REALLY.
 
"And yet nearly half of singles in Japan have no interest in dating – a situation that many experts predict will help lead to a population decline of one-third in the next 45 years."

http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/1904732/japanese-saying-no-thanks-sex-should-send-red-flags-country-one
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Sigmetnow

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Re: It's the population, stupid!
« Reply #15 on: January 26, 2016, 07:04:34 PM »
China Scraps One-Child Policy, Will Allow 2 Kids Per Couple
Quote
When China announced it would relax the policy in 2013, many parents said they did not want a second child due to the high cost of living. A 2014 survey conducted by the Communist Party-controlled People's Daily newspaper found that only half of those permitted to have a second child actually planned another.
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/china/china-scraps-one-child-policy-all-couples-n453566
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Sigmetnow

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Re: It's the population, stupid!
« Reply #16 on: January 27, 2016, 01:02:09 AM »
More on the spread of the Zika virus.

Zika virus: Outbreak 'likely to spread across Americas' says WHO
http://www.bbc.com/news/health-35399403

Time For Americans To Worry About Zika Virus?
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/01/26/time-for-americans-to-worry-about-zika-virus.html

Zika virus to spread to all but 2 countries in the Americas, WHO predicts
http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/25/health/who-zika-virus-americas/
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AbruptSLR

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Re: It's the population, stupid!
« Reply #17 on: February 12, 2016, 11:47:24 PM »
The linked article discusses the severe water scarcity currently faced by 4 billion people; a situation that will be made significantly worse by climate change:

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/feb/12/four-billion-people-face-severe-water-scarcity-new-research-finds

Extract: "At least two-thirds of the global population, over 4 billion people, live with severe water scarcity for at least one month every year, according to a major new analysis.
The revelation shows water shortages, one of the most dangerous challenges the world faces, is far worse previously than thought.
The new research also reveals that 500m people live in places where water consumption is double the amount replenished by rain for the entire year, leaving them extremely vulnerable as underground aquifers run down.
Many of those living with fragile water resources are in India and China, but other regions highlighted are the central and western US, Australia and even the city of London."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: It's the population, stupid!
« Reply #18 on: March 07, 2016, 06:10:34 PM »
The linked article (& associated images) show how unbalanced the Earth's population is; which hints at why West Africa will be a major source of future population growth:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/03/07/fascinating-maps-show-just-how-empty-one-half-of-the-world-is/

Extract: "Fascinating maps show just how empty one half of the world is:

Do you live in the human half of the world? Unless you're reading this from Australia, Indonesia or South America's Southern Cone, the chances are that you do."

See also:
http://www.radicalcartography.net/
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: It's the population, stupid!
« Reply #19 on: April 23, 2016, 07:39:16 PM »
As JimD is not posting so much at the moment, I provide the linked (open access) commentary warning of the dire consequences on not stabilizing the world's population growth:

John Colarusso (5 February 2016), "Comment on “Can human populations be stabilized?” by Stephen G. Warren", Earth's Future, DOI: 10.1002/2015EF000329

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015EF000329/full

Extract: "If Professor Warren is right, we must act to avoid a reversion to biological constraint, that is, to a hell of starvation and poverty. But our course to salvation does not itself look particularly appealing given today's embrace of freedom and our celebration of diversity. Our values will have to change both in terms of how we see ourselves and how we see social order [Hardin, 1968]. The problem facing governments is particularly acute since not only would they need to formulate such policies, but they would also have to persuade their citizens that such changes are a form of adaptation to necessity. In effect, they will have to implement the imperative implied by the Family Equation, an inherently counterintuitive bit of math. Their task will be to somehow maintain tolerance in societies that are already diverse, while also making the needed adaptations seem as though moral progress is still maintained. This last task would seem to present a hurdle that is well nigh insurmountable, at least one that a government would not be able to manage and still retain legitimacy because curtailment of freedom would signify a moral reversion, a change in direct opposition to moral progress.
None of these adaptations, social and political, will be easy nor will they be pleasant, but it seems that they will be inevitable if the human race is not to fall victim to its own biological exuberance."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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TerryM

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Re: It's the population, stupid!
« Reply #20 on: April 23, 2016, 09:14:33 PM »
ASLR
Didn't China deal with just this problem with her 1 child policy? I believe it's now been extended to a 2 child policy which is still far below population stability. Rather than throwing up our hands and announcing that population can not be stabilized, perhaps we should be proclaiming that we're better than those darn commies, and if they can do it we can do it better.

Mandatory abortions on even numbered years?
Excessively expensive birthing procedures & long term abortions for free?

(2nd suggestion is for libertarian regions. It's just the invisible hand of the marketplace)
 :)
Terry

AbruptSLR

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Re: It's the population, stupid!
« Reply #21 on: April 24, 2016, 12:20:14 AM »
ASLR
Didn't China deal with just this problem with her 1 child policy? I believe it's now been extended to a 2 child policy which is still far below population stability. Rather than throwing up our hands and announcing that population can not be stabilized, perhaps we should be proclaiming that we're better than those darn commies, and if they can do it we can do it better.

Mandatory abortions on even numbered years?
Excessively expensive birthing procedures & long term abortions for free?

(2nd suggestion is for libertarian regions. It's just the invisible hand of the marketplace)
 :)
Terry

Mostly, I provided my prior post to indicate the seriousness of the problem.  Regarding solutions, the "Adapting to the Anthropocene" thread in the Science folder, contains most of my ideas of what we need to face.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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TerryM

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Re: It's the population, stupid!
« Reply #22 on: April 24, 2016, 01:30:13 AM »
ASLR
Apologise if I responded to your linked with inappropriate levity, my rant on the population problem was posted a few days ago.

Frankly it was difficult to craft a response to someone claiming that a government would "not be able to manage and still retain legitimacy because curtailment of freedom would signify a moral reversion, a change in direct opposition to moral progress." & that managed a paper about the future of mankind, without once mentioning global warming.
When I read his denigration of Russia, China & Iran, I assumed he was a right wing nutter & responded in the voce I usually use in such situations.

I don't believe we'll achieve a controlled global population decline without nuclear assistance, I do believe that those like John Colarusso who equate population control with a loss of moral authority are one of the reasons why.


Terry

Sigmetnow

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Re: It's the population, stupid!
« Reply #23 on: May 01, 2016, 01:20:46 AM »
I imagine they will be a bigger force for climate change action, as well....


It’s official: Millennials have surpassed baby boomers to become America’s largest living generation
Quote
The term “millennial” comes with many connotations.

They like socialism. They don’t eat breakfast cereal. They save more money than previous generations. They enjoy a work-life balance, and they often don’t think they’re millennials.

Now, they’re the largest living generation in the United States.

Pew Research Center broke down population estimates released this month by the U.S. Census Bureau. For this exercise, the millennial generation included anyone who was 18 to 34 years old in 2015. Therefore, the oldest millennial was born in 1981 and the youngest in 1997.

By that definition, there are now 75.4 million living millennials, which is a half-million more than the 74.9 million living baby boomers, who were defined as anyone who was 51 to 69 years old in 2015. The interim generation — Generation X — is projected to follow suit and surpass baby boomers by 2028, Pew also projected.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2016/04/26/its-official-millennials-have-surpassed-baby-boomers-to-become-americas-largest-living-generation/
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AbruptSLR

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Re: It's the population, stupid!
« Reply #24 on: July 11, 2016, 09:58:54 PM »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sigmetnow

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Re: It's the population, stupid!
« Reply #25 on: July 14, 2016, 10:18:20 PM »
Nature has her ways....


Gonorrhea may soon become resistant to all antibiotics and untreatable
Quote
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported Thursday that the wily Neisseria gonorrhoeae bacteria may be developing resistance to the only two antibiotics left that can cure the sexually transmitted disease.
https://www.statnews.com/2016/07/14/gonorrhea-antibiotic-resistant-untreatable/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: It's the population, stupid!
« Reply #26 on: September 14, 2016, 02:38:12 PM »
Making babies in Italy: Government in trouble over 'Fertility Day'
Quote
A campaign in Italy aimed at boosting the country's birth rate has had teething troubles with the government pulling ads promoting having children after they were deemed "offensive."

The ads were part of the government's forthcoming "Fertility Day" event on September 22 aimed at encouraging more Italian women to have babies – Italy has one of the lowest birthrates in the world, a ticking demographic time bomb for the economy.
...
Italian women have not positively responded to the government-funded ads, however, deeming the ads "insulting" and "embarrassing" and criticizing the government for not providing the infrastructure necessary to support young families or working mothers. The campaign has also spawned some sardonic responses to the government, including tweets of pictures of storks delivering babies.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/14/making-babies-in-italy-government-in-trouble-over-fertility-day.html

Images from the campaign -- and the response to it:
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Sigmetnow

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Re: It's the population, stupid!
« Reply #27 on: September 26, 2016, 06:48:07 PM »
In Japan, a Bankrupt Mining Town Downsizes to Avoid Becoming a Ghost
Quote
A sleepy, former coal-mining town in northern Japan is taking unprecedented measures to combat its biggest challenge: a devastating shrinking of its population. Its success could decide the future for hundreds of other local governments waging the same battle for survival.

Since its peak in the post-war economic boom of the 1960s, the population of Yubari, a little more than an hour’s drive east of Sapporo on Japan’s northern island of Hokkaido, has declined by more than 90 percent to just 9,000 as older residents died and young people moved away to bigger cities. Ten years ago, it became Japan’s first municipality to declare bankruptcy.

To keep from becoming a so-called ghost town—when a city ceases to function due to a precipitous decline in population and is ultimately abandoned—Yubari embarked on a drastic experiment. City officials began merging schools, slashing government jobs and salaries, halting funds for public swimming pools, toilets and parks, curtailing services such as bus routes and snow removal, and downgrading the local hospital to a clinic. The most drastic measure has been the forced relocation of hundreds of residents from public housing on the city’s outskirts to blocks of new, low-rise apartments closer to the city center.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-25/bankrupt-mining-town-downsizes-to-avoid-becoming-a-ghost
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