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Sigmetnow

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #250 on: October 09, 2016, 03:56:11 PM »
Compare forecast tracks to actual track....

Loop: All 43 main advisory forecast cone releases by the NHC.
https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/784907953216389121
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Sigmetnow

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #251 on: October 09, 2016, 03:58:24 PM »
NWS Raleigh, North Carolina:  Serious situation in Goldsboro! Neuse River rising very rapidly, forecast to exceed Floyd record flooding by over 2 feet. #ncwx #Matthew
https://twitter.com/nwsraleigh/status/784872208359317504
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Sigmetnow

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #252 on: October 09, 2016, 05:09:09 PM »
The Seymour Johnson Air Force Base borders the Neuse River just south of Goldsboro, NC.
A clear example of military bases threatened by climate change.

SJAFB Experiences Historic Flooding
Quote
Tonight has been one for the record books. While we made the right call to Hurivac the F-15E and KC-135s, what we did not expect was the significant flooding in base housing. Thanks to the quick reaction of our neighbors, friends, Civil Engineers, Defenders, and leadership, we were able to evacuate those flooded and those who were the most threatened. It broke my heart to see the flooded houses, not to mention the numerous flooded cars around base.
http://goldsborodailynews.com/blog/2016/10/09/sjafb-experiences-historic-flooding/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #253 on: October 09, 2016, 09:39:30 PM »
U.S. Death Toll From Hurricane Matthew Rises to 17 Across Four States
Quote
Saturday night, rainfall totals were 16 inches [400 mm] in Bladen County, 15 inches in Goldsboro, 12 inches in Lumberton and Smithfield, and 9 inches in Raleigh and Rocky Mount, McCrory said in a statement.

The Fayetteville, North Carolina, Emergency Operations Center said response teams rescued nearly 700 people overnight in the Fayetteville and Cumberland County areas while 503 people were being housed in area shelters. ...

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/500-rescued-north-carolina-floods-matthew-churns-n662666


The Weather Channel played a chilling 911 call from a woman who said she'd gotten a call from her mother.  Her parents' house was surrounded by water;  her mother was sitting up on a counter but her father was in a wheelchair.  "They should have evacuated, but they didn't."  The 911 operator had to tell her that due to the flooding, first responders could not get there to help.... 

TWC assured listeners that everything eventually turned out okay.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #254 on: October 09, 2016, 10:41:11 PM »
Matthew Flings All-Time Surge and Rainfall Records Across Southeast
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After a devastating 12-day rampage from the Caribbean to the U.S. Mid-Atlantic, Hurricane Matthew was reclassified as a post-tropical cyclone at 5 am EDT Sunday by the National Hurricane Center. Matthew wasn’t exactly slacking off--its top sustained winds remained 75 mph as of NHC’s 2 pm Sunday advisory--but it no longer had the warm core required for tropical-cyclone status. At 2 pm EDT, Matthew was located about 150 miles east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, moving east at 15 mph. After days of computer models suggesting a potential loop back toward Florida, it now appears Matthew will continue eastward and gradually dissipate.

It will be some time before we have a more complete sense of Matthew’s toll, but we already know that it is the deadliest hurricane in the Western Hemisphere since 2005. In Haiti, Matthew took at least 877 lives and and left entire towns across southern Haiti almost completely destroyed. A handful of deaths and significant damage were also reported in Cuba, Jamaica, The Bahamas, Colombia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, and the Dominican Republic. After Haiti, it was the United States that took the worst of Matthew’s wrath. At least 16 U.S. deaths have been reported, and insured damage is expected to total at least $4 billion. See our Saturday post for details on how you can provide much-needed help to those struggling with the aftermath of Matthew.
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/matthew-flings-alltime-surge-and-rainfall-records-across-southeast
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Sigmetnow

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #255 on: October 10, 2016, 02:09:39 AM »
City of Charleston, South Carolina:  Civil War shells uncovered by storm on Folly Beach will be detonated in place between 5:30-8 tonight. May be heard in surrounding areas.
https://twitter.com/citycharleston/status/785225232898555904
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #256 on: October 11, 2016, 07:58:00 PM »
Next tropical cyclone name to be used in the Atlantic basin is Otto. The two latest GFS model runs have depicted a possible development of a classic October cyclone in the Caribbean basin by next week.

The normal tracks for October cyclones forming in this area is that they tend to turn northward and northeastward and eventually interacts with areas of higher wind shear in the GOM. Too early too speculate about such a movement but worth to keep an eye on to see if the rend continues over the next couple of runs.

This area in the Caribbean is very warm and with a high degree of oceanic heat content which might fuel an eventual TC if the atmospheric conditions are good.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #257 on: October 12, 2016, 12:05:09 AM »
Nicole has reached hurricane strength once again:
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budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #258 on: October 12, 2016, 03:41:01 PM »
The latest on Nicole as of 8AM.

Sigmetnow

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #259 on: October 12, 2016, 05:13:29 PM »
North Carolina Flooding: Hurricane Matthew Water-Swollen Rivers Set To Rise
Quote
Flooding continued to threaten parts of North Carolina on Wednesday as Hurricane Matthew's deadly after-effects swelled rivers and forced tens of thousands to be evacuated.
...
Matthew's death toll in the U.S. has climbed to 36, more than half of them in North Carolina. Tens of thousands of people, some of them as much as 125 miles inland, have been warned to move to higher ground since the hurricane drenched the state.
...
The full extent of the damage in North Carolina was unclear, but it appeared that thousands of homes were damaged. Many likened Matthew to Hurricane Floyd, which did $3 billion in damage and destroyed 7,000 homes in North Carolina as it skirted the state's coast in 1999.
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/hurricane-matthew/north-carolina-flooding-hurricane-matthew-water-swollen-rivers-set-rise-n664951


Edit: More:

North Carolina flooding is so severe that rescuers need sonar to locate cars, victims
[quote]The Lumber River crested 4 feet above its record level Sunday in Lumberton and was forecast to remain above the record until next Sunday.
...
North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory said thousands of animals drowned so far as a result of this storm — mostly chickens on poultry farms — and he was deciding on rules for disposing of the carcasses.

Interstate 95 — the north-south highway along the East Coast — was closed in Lumberton and engineers could not predict when it would reopen.

Flood projections show that river crests will flood portions of East Carolina University in Greenville, as well as the airport there. [/quote]
http://mashable.com/2016/10/11/north-carolina-flood-so-severe-sonar-rescue/
« Last Edit: October 12, 2016, 06:23:30 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #260 on: October 12, 2016, 05:25:42 PM »
Hurricane Nicole expected to strengthen, could reach 'near major hurricane strength' when it approaches Bermuda - National Hurricane Center
Quote
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin on Bermuda Thursday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin this evening or tonight.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels in Bermuda. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over Bermuda through Thursday.
SURF: Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda during the next few days. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by the Bermuda Weather Service.
TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible on Bermuda tonight and early Thursday.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/121442.shtml
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budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #261 on: October 13, 2016, 07:17:52 AM »
Nicole is now a cat 3 hurricane.
« Last Edit: October 13, 2016, 08:17:50 AM by budmantis »

budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #262 on: October 13, 2016, 08:17:12 AM »
2AM update on Nicole.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #263 on: October 13, 2016, 02:28:56 PM »
We're hosting another hurricane related AMA (Q&A) over on reddit.com/r/science.

-----------------------------------------

Science AMA Series: Hi Reddit, I'm Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University. I'm here to talk about the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season specifically as well as any other hurricane/typhoon related questions you have. Ask me anything!

I am Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University. I worked for over 15 years with the late Dr. Bill Gray, a renowned scientist who conducted groundbreaking studies in hurricane genesis, structure and intensity change as well as pioneering Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane prediction. While our Tropical Meteorology Project is best known among the general public for the seasonal hurricane predictions, I conduct research on a variety of hurricane-related topics including shorter-term prediction as well as potential future changes in tropical cyclone activity driven both by natural variability as well as anthropogenic causes. I maintain a very active presence on social media through my Twitter feed (@philklotzbach) where I provide frequent updates on current global tropical cyclone activity and compare them with historical statistics. I also maintain global real-time hurricane statistics. In cooperation with the Barcelona Supercomputing Centre, I helped create arepository of all publicly-available seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic basin from various government agencies, universities and private forecasting companies.

Currently, I am working on a variety of research projects, including the generation of an updated global tropical cyclone climatology as well as a paper on the life and legacy of Dr. Gray. I am also closely monitoring the potential shift away from the active Atlantic hurricane era that we have been in since 1995. I was lead author on a paper last year that raised the question that we might be moving out of the active era for Atlantic hurricanes.

I look forward to chatting with you about all things hurricane!

I’ll be back at noon EST (9 am PST, 5 pm UTC) to answer your questions, ask me anything!


------------------------------------------

https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/579v6t/science_ama_series_hi_reddit_im_phil_klotzbach_a/

Sigmetnow

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #264 on: October 13, 2016, 07:36:29 PM »
NASA is delaying the launch of its resupply mission to the International Space Station because of Hurricane Nicole's potential impact on Bermuda.
 
http://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/nasa-its-space-partners-can-t-seem-catch-break-n665276
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budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #265 on: October 13, 2016, 11:24:38 PM »
5PM update on Nicole. Storm is weakening and beginning to show some extra-tropical characteristics.

Sigmetnow

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #266 on: October 14, 2016, 09:35:11 PM »
King tides arriving in South Florida with extra swell from Hurricane Nicole
Quote
The annual king tides are beginning to rise in South Florida, submerging docks, flooding low-lying streets and spilling over seawalls.

The tides are not expected to peak until Monday, but offshore winds from Hurricane Nicole are causing local water to swell about a flood over predictions, giving the region a preview of the rising tides.
Article includes photos from social media:
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/miami-beach/article107879707.html
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budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #267 on: October 15, 2016, 06:51:14 AM »
11PM update on Nicole. Downgraded to T.S. but expected to strengthen back to a hurricane.
« Last Edit: October 15, 2016, 05:44:04 PM by budmantis »

budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #268 on: October 15, 2016, 05:43:01 PM »
11AM update on Nicole. Situated at 39 degrees north latitude, Nicole has regained hurricane strength.

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #269 on: October 15, 2016, 11:31:21 PM »
Keeping Storm strength all the way to Greenland. Interesting.

budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #270 on: October 16, 2016, 05:36:33 AM »
Keeping Storm strength all the way to Greenland. Interesting.

Additionally, the cyclone still has some tropical characteristics. Unusual at such a high latitude.

budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #271 on: October 16, 2016, 03:35:49 PM »
The 8AM update of Nicole. I'm amazed at the storm's longevity.

Sigmetnow

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #272 on: October 16, 2016, 07:25:33 PM »
Phil Klotzbach:  "Atlantic [tropical cyclones] have generated 66 ACE units so far this month - the most on record (since 1851) between 10/1-10/16. #Matthew #Nicole"
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/787649262557368320
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budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #273 on: October 16, 2016, 08:03:11 PM »
Phil Klotzbach:  "Atlantic [tropical cyclones] have generated 66 ACE units so far this month - the most on record (since 1851) between 10/1-10/16. #Matthew #Nicole"
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/787649262557368320

Had to look that one up Sigmet! ACE=accumulated cyclone energy. No new info on Nicole at 2PM. Am amazed at this storm's staying power. Must be due at least in part to the water temperature.

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #274 on: October 16, 2016, 08:45:57 PM »
Am amazed at this storm's staying power. Must be due at least in part to the water temperature.

I am amazed too, but according to http://cci-reanalyzer.org/DailySummary/index_ds.php#SST the water temperature is only about 15 C. Something else is going on. Cyclone inertia or lack of wind shear or something else?

budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #275 on: October 16, 2016, 10:32:56 PM »
Am amazed at this storm's staying power. Must be due at least in part to the water temperature.

I am amazed too, but according to http://cci-reanalyzer.org/DailySummary/index_ds.php#SST the water temperature is only about 15 C. Something else is going on. Cyclone inertia or lack of wind shear or something else?

By my reckoning (which may not be accurate), I think Nicole is still over water that is 22 to 25 C, still too cold to fuel a tropical cyclone but perhaps not cold enough to render it extra-tropical. As of 11AM, Nicole was situated at 39.1 degrees north. Yesterday it was a little further north at 39.4. We'll see what the 5PM update has to say.

Also, there doesn't appear to be much wind shear, if any. Here's the latest satellite image from the weather underground.

budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #276 on: October 16, 2016, 11:00:03 PM »
The 5PM update has Nicole situated at 39.7 north. Winds have diminished to 80mph.

budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #277 on: October 17, 2016, 06:35:27 AM »
The 11PM NHC update is now projecting a 40 percent chance of further development for disturbance #1.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #278 on: October 17, 2016, 07:19:05 AM »
Wrt the low SSTs inthevicinity of Nicole: remember that hurricane Alex transformed into a hurricane despite unfavorable conditions. Similar process might be in charge for Nicole!

budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #279 on: October 17, 2016, 01:41:45 PM »
Wrt the low SSTs inthevicinity of Nicole: remember that hurricane Alex transformed into a hurricane despite unfavorable conditions. Similar process might be in charge for Nicole!

Glad you brought that up LMV, I had forgotten about Alex. Here's the 8AM update (a bit early), with the latest satellite image. Nicole is expected to become extra-tropical later today.

budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #280 on: October 17, 2016, 05:57:51 PM »
The 11AM update with Nicole still a cat 1 hurricane and moving NNE at 9 mph. I think one reason for the storm staying together is it's slow forward motion. Most storms are moving at a much faster clip as they enter the North Atlantic and they quickly fall apart. Nicole's forward motion has been relatively slow.

budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #281 on: October 17, 2016, 11:33:53 PM »
The 5PM update on Nicole. Still a minimal hurricane, but moving over colder water now and also heading NE at 24mph. Expected to become extra-tropical later this evening. I've never seen a hurricane retain an "eye" like Nicole has.

budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #282 on: October 18, 2016, 02:48:15 AM »
No new info on Nicole aside from this satellite image. Looks like the eye is finally breaking up.

budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #283 on: October 18, 2016, 05:43:54 AM »
11PM update on Nicole. Now a tropical storm, heading NE at 25mph. That eye just doesn't want to close. Never seen anything like it. Kind of mocks my signature line, (the center cannot hold). Bad storm, bad storm!
« Last Edit: October 18, 2016, 05:50:36 AM by budmantis »

mati

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #284 on: October 18, 2016, 05:36:08 PM »
Will Nicole bring rain or snow to greenland?
and so it goes

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #285 on: October 18, 2016, 06:05:53 PM »
Will Nicole bring rain or snow to greenland?

rain at lower altitudes an snow higher up :-)

budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #286 on: October 19, 2016, 08:17:30 AM »
The NHC gives Invest 99L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression. From Weather Underground are the following: 1. Projected path of this disturbance. 2. Latest satellite image.

budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #287 on: October 20, 2016, 08:01:37 AM »
Invest 99L has not materialized into a tropical depression yet. With the 2AM update from NHC, the likelihood of development has been reduced to 50% from 80%. The satellite image does not show any signs of development at this point.

budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #288 on: October 23, 2016, 05:48:32 AM »
A rare but welcome sight this year.

budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #289 on: October 28, 2016, 06:43:36 AM »
Very happy to see no tropical development over the past few days. The NHC does show one area of disturbance in the Caribbean Sea, with a projected 0% chance of developing further, at least at this time.

budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #290 on: November 02, 2016, 11:28:48 PM »
Very little happening in the tropics right now. There is a disturbance with a 20% chance of developing into a sub-tropical system within five days.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #291 on: November 14, 2016, 12:50:37 PM »
The five day forecast calls for development in the Caribbean within the next five days.

Sigmetnow

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #292 on: November 15, 2016, 03:38:17 AM »
NOAA NWS Ocean Prediction Center:  North Atlantic: a #hurricane force wind warning in effect as low pressure rapidly intensifies while passing just southeast of Greenland tonight. The hurricane force winds are expected to be brief, but prolonged #storm and #gale conditions will persist in the Greenland tip jet for several days.
https://www.facebook.com/NWSOPC/posts/1203389439719785:0
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budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #293 on: November 21, 2016, 08:21:51 AM »
The odds for a new tropical depression in the southwestern Caribbean are 90%, according to the latest update from the NHC.


Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #294 on: November 21, 2016, 11:28:29 AM »
Tropical Depression 16 is forecast to become a hurricane by midweek:

Quote
Marginal environmental conditions are only expected to support slow strengthening for the next 36 hours or so. After that, the moderate vertical wind shear currently affecting the cyclone is forecast to decrease to less than 10 kt while mid-level humidity values increase to more than 70 percent. This should allow for the depression to strengthen into a hurricane by 72 hours before landfall occurs.
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budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #295 on: November 21, 2016, 09:51:32 PM »
Now a tropical storm, Otto is expected to head west.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #296 on: November 22, 2016, 11:05:06 PM »
Otto is now officially a hurricane:

Quote
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Costa Rica/Panama border to south of Bluefields

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Nargana to Colon
* San Andres

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Colon to the Costa Rica/Panama border
* Bluefields to Sandy Bay Sirpi

According to the NHC:

Quote
Otto is the latest hurricane formation on record in the Caribbean Sea, eclipsing the record of Martha 1969.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Sigmetnow

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #297 on: November 23, 2016, 06:37:23 PM »
• This could be a record latest-in-season hurricane or tropical storm landfall in Nicaragua.
• Otto could be the first hurricane landfall in 174 years of records in Costa Rica.

Tropical Storm Otto Moving Towards Central America; Still May Make a Bizarre Thanksgiving Hurricane Landfall in Nicaragua or Costa Rica
Quote
Tropical Storm Otto, earlier the seventh hurricane of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season, is about 24 hours away from an extremely rare late November landfall in Nicaragua or Costa Rica, posing a danger of flooding and mudslides in parts of Central America.
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/tropical-storm-hurricane-otto-caribbean-central-america-forecast
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #298 on: November 24, 2016, 11:13:04 AM »
Otto is still heading for the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border. Assuming Otto is still hurricane strength at the time, his will become the most southerly Central American hurricane landfall in NOAA's hurricane database:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #299 on: November 24, 2016, 12:06:46 PM »
An interim update:

Quote
Data just received from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that Otto now has maximum sustained winds of 100
mph (155 km/h), with higher gusts.

The aircraft will continue to investigate Otto this morning, and an
intermediate advisory will be issued at 700 AM EST (1200 UTC).
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein